Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Bilal Hafeez

  • 42 minutes 44 seconds
    Ep. 247: Julia Azari on Trump’s Second Term, Constraints and Priorities

    Julia Azari is Professor in the Department of Political Science at Marquette University. She holds a Ph.D in political science from Yale University. Her research focuses on the American presidency, American political parties, political communication, and American political development. She is the author of ‘Delivering the People's Message: The Changing Politics of the Presidential Mandate’. She is a regular contributor to FiveThirtyEight.com, Politico, and The Washington Post. This episode covers what election results tell us about US politics, Trump’s executive power vs control over party, how Congress may push back on Trump, and much more. 

     

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    20 December 2024, 8:23 am
  • 1 hour 48 seconds
    Ep. 246: Tomasz Nadrowski on Navigating Global Chaos

    Tomasz is a portfolio manager at Amvest Capital – a natural resources-focused investment management firm. He has over 25 years of expertise in mining investments, including as a portfolio manager for Anholt, commodity strategist at Doyen Capital, portfolio manager at De Gouden Eeuw, and as a commodity analyst at Round Table Investment Management. He is host of the Tyranny Today podcast and is also fluent in seven languages. In this podcast we discuss what a Trump world looks like, global trade and security arrangements, Russia/Ukraine endgame and NATO, and much more. 

     

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    13 December 2024, 2:51 pm
  • 54 minutes 21 seconds
    Ep. 245: Frank Kelly on Why Everyone Underestimates Trump

    Frank Kelly, Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors, an independent strategic advisory firm. Frank began his career as a writer for President Ronald Reagan and went on to serve in the White House Office of Political Affairs. He served as a writer for President George H.W. Bush and then served at the Justice Department. From there, Frank went to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, being appointed Senior Policy Advisor. He then held senior Public Affairs roles at Merrill Lynch, Charles Schwab and Deutsche Bank. In this podcast we discuss Reagan vs Trump, why Trump won the 2024 election, it is Trump 4.0 not Trump 2.0, and much more. 

     

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    6 December 2024, 11:36 am
  • 1 hour 6 minutes
    Ep. 244: In Memoriam - Professor Ian Shipsey on How Physics Can Change the World

    In late September, I had the honour of recording a conversation with the late Professor Ian Shipsey, Head of Physics at Oxford University. Tragically, Professor Shipsey passed away shortly after our discussion. We are releasing this episode as a tribute to his remarkable contributions.

    Professor Shipsey was one of the leading particle physicists of his generation and was Head of Physics at Oxford from 2018 until his passing. His groundbreaking work ranged from studying subatomic particles to advancing our understanding of the Higgs boson, discovered at CERN in 2012. In recognition of his extraordinary contributions, he was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society in 2022.

    In this podcast, we discussed climate change and renewable energy, quantum computing, and how physics can change the world around us.

    29 November 2024, 10:09 am
  • 39 minutes 12 seconds
    Ep. 243: Charles Engel on Currency Models, Carry Trades and Capital Flows

    Charles Engel is Donald Hester Professor of Economics at the University of Wisconsin. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research. He has been a consultant to the Dallas and Chicago branches of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. In this podcast we discuss the standard model to explain FX movements, how to forecast FX, and the importance of safe-haven and liquidity demand for the dollar.

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    22 November 2024, 1:46 pm
  • 30 minutes 50 seconds
    Ep. 242: Alberto Gallo on Trump Impact, Geopolitics and Favourite Markets

    Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments. Previously, he ran macro credit research at RBS in London, and served in senior research roles at Goldman Sachs in New York, Bear Stearns in New York and London, and Merrill Lynch in London. In this podcast we discuss impact of Trump on markets, Fed’s likely path, US growth and credit expansion, and much more. 

     

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    15 November 2024, 11:47 am
  • 53 minutes 39 seconds
    Ep. 241: Gary Gerstle on Trump’s Big Win and the Future of American Politics

    Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015). His most recent book, The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order: America and the World in the Free Market Era (2022), was chosen as a Best Book of 2022 by the Financial Times and Prospect Magazine. He has also testified before the US Congress on immigration matters. This podcast covers: how Trump won, inflation vs threat to democracy, how migrant issue was nationalised, and much more. 

     

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    8 November 2024, 2:12 pm
  • 43 minutes 7 seconds
    Ep. 240: Ebrahim Rahbari on US Election Trades, Fed Cycle and German Challenges

    Ebrahim Rahbari is an independent strategist and economist. Previously, he was Chief Currency Strategist and Global Head of Foreign Exchange Analysis at Citi. The team was top ranked in the Institutional Investor Global Fixed Income Survey. Prior to that, Ebrahim was Head of Global Macroeconomics at Citi. Ebrahim studied at Oxford and holds a PhD in Economics from London Business School. In this podcast we discuss how to play US elections, short- and long-term impacts of a Trump or Harris win, why US economy is doing well, and much more. 

     

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    1 November 2024, 10:39 am
  • 49 minutes 49 seconds
    Ep. 239: Thomas Drechsel on Measuring Political Pressure on Fed, Predicting Fed, and Better Nowcasts

    Thomas Drechsel is Assistant Professor at the Economics Department of the University of Maryland. His research focuses on monetary policy, the role of commodities for emerging market economies, as well as real-time monitoring of economic activity. His work has been published in the Review of Economic Studies, the American Economic Journal and the Journal of Finance. He holds a PhD from the London School of Economics. In this podcast we discuss how to measure political pressure on Fed, the Nixon and LBJ cases, impact on inflation and growth, and much more. 

     

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    25 October 2024, 6:49 am
  • 55 minutes 45 seconds
    Ep. 238: Rory Johnston on Oil to $65, Middle East Risks and Trump Agenda

    Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast we discuss the key themes in oil for 2024: Middle East conflict, Saudi supply, China demand and the Trump agenda.

     

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    18 October 2024, 2:26 pm
  • 48 minutes 58 seconds
    Ep. 237: Antonio Del Favero on the Fed’s Mistake, Inflation Risks and Financial Conditions

    Antonio Del Favero is a macro strategist at Macro Hive. He focuses mainly on the US economy and markets and G5 FX. Formerly, he worked at various macro hedge funds, including Tudor, Maniyar Capital and Brevan Howard. He holds a master’s in finance from the ETH/University of Zurich and a master’s in economics from Bocconi University. In this podcast we discuss what is happening in the US labour market, whether the market pricing a soft landing, Fed hikes and the US cycle, and much more. 

     

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    11 October 2024, 11:38 am
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