Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Bilal Hafeez

  • 53 minutes 39 seconds
    Ep. 241: Gary Gerstle on Trump’s Big Win and the Future of American Politics

    Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015). His most recent book, The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order: America and the World in the Free Market Era (2022), was chosen as a Best Book of 2022 by the Financial Times and Prospect Magazine. He has also testified before the US Congress on immigration matters. This podcast covers: how Trump won, inflation vs threat to democracy, how migrant issue was nationalised, and much more. 

     

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    8 November 2024, 2:12 pm
  • 43 minutes 7 seconds
    Ep. 240: Ebrahim Rahbari on US Election Trades, Fed Cycle and German Challenges

    Ebrahim Rahbari is an independent strategist and economist. Previously, he was Chief Currency Strategist and Global Head of Foreign Exchange Analysis at Citi. The team was top ranked in the Institutional Investor Global Fixed Income Survey. Prior to that, Ebrahim was Head of Global Macroeconomics at Citi. Ebrahim studied at Oxford and holds a PhD in Economics from London Business School. In this podcast we discuss how to play US elections, short- and long-term impacts of a Trump or Harris win, why US economy is doing well, and much more. 

     

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    1 November 2024, 10:39 am
  • 49 minutes 49 seconds
    Ep. 239: Thomas Drechsel on Measuring Political Pressure on Fed, Predicting Fed, and Better Nowcasts

    Thomas Drechsel is Assistant Professor at the Economics Department of the University of Maryland. His research focuses on monetary policy, the role of commodities for emerging market economies, as well as real-time monitoring of economic activity. His work has been published in the Review of Economic Studies, the American Economic Journal and the Journal of Finance. He holds a PhD from the London School of Economics. In this podcast we discuss how to measure political pressure on Fed, the Nixon and LBJ cases, impact on inflation and growth, and much more. 

     

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    25 October 2024, 6:49 am
  • 55 minutes 45 seconds
    Ep. 238: Rory Johnston on Oil to $65, Middle East Risks and Trump Agenda

    Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast we discuss the key themes in oil for 2024: Middle East conflict, Saudi supply, China demand and the Trump agenda.

     

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    18 October 2024, 2:26 pm
  • 48 minutes 58 seconds
    Ep. 237: Antonio Del Favero on the Fed’s Mistake, Inflation Risks and Financial Conditions

    Antonio Del Favero is a macro strategist at Macro Hive. He focuses mainly on the US economy and markets and G5 FX. Formerly, he worked at various macro hedge funds, including Tudor, Maniyar Capital and Brevan Howard. He holds a master’s in finance from the ETH/University of Zurich and a master’s in economics from Bocconi University. In this podcast we discuss what is happening in the US labour market, whether the market pricing a soft landing, Fed hikes and the US cycle, and much more. 

     

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    11 October 2024, 11:38 am
  • 1 hour 17 minutes
    Ep. 236: Sean McMeekin on the Return of Communism

    Sean McMeekin PhD was educated at Stanford University and the University of California, Berkeley. Having visited American and European battlefields, libraries and archives, venturing as far east as Russia and Turkey, he now teaches at Bard College. His eight award-winning books include ‘Stalin's War: A New History of World War’. His latest book is ‘To Overthrow the World: The Rise and Fall and Rise of Communism’. In this podcast we discuss the early roots of Communism, Karl Marx and political violence, Lenin and how to seize power, and much more. 

     

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    4 October 2024, 7:28 am
  • 42 minutes 12 seconds
    Ep. 235: Christian Schwarz on AI Bubbles, Using AI in Trading and Synthetic Data

    Christian is Managing Director and Head of Data Science in the financial markets division at Standard Chartered. He focuses on credit and previously worked at Mizuho and Credit Suisse. His postgraduate studies were in financial mathematics. In this podcast we discuss whether we are in an AI bubble, why credit markets have lagged other markets in adopting AI, using generative AI to create synthetic data, and much more. 

     

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    27 September 2024, 7:29 am
  • 1 hour 18 seconds
    Ep. 234: Jay Pelosky on Bullish Equities, Early Cycle US and Trump Losing

    Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, we discuss what the chances of recession are, US earnings and productivity, equities are not just a tech story, and much more. 

     

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    20 September 2024, 10:07 am
  • 30 minutes 23 seconds
    Ep. 233: Mirza Baig on Best EM Trades, Fed Easing and China Carry Trade

    Mirza Baig is a senior EM strategist at Macro Hive. He has been researching and trading global FX and rates products for 20 years. His career boasts affiliations with premier sell-side entities such as Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank. Moreover, his invaluable expertise from the buy-side perspective at Point 72 positions him uniquely in the industry. In this podcast we discuss how EM has performed in recent years, the long-term case for EM, China: broad weakness, narrow strength, and much more. 

     

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    13 September 2024, 8:12 am
  • 36 minutes 33 seconds
    Ep. 232: Bob Elliott on US Recession Odds, Fed Policy and Equity Risks

    Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of alternative investments, like hedge funds. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates, where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for nearly a decade. Bob holds a degree in History and Science from Harvard. In this podcast we discuss income business cycle rather than credit cycle, parallels to 1950s and 1960s, whether Fed policy is restrictive, and much more. 

     

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    6 September 2024, 7:41 am
  • 46 minutes 12 seconds
    Ep. 231: J. Doyne Farmer on Making Sense of Chaos

    J. Doyne Farmer is Director of the Complexity Economics Programme and Professor of Complex Systems Science at the University of Oxford. He is also External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute and Chief Scientist at Macrocosm. He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to UBS in 2006. His book, Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World, was published in 2024. During the 1980s he was an Oppenheimer Fellow and the founder of the Complex Systems Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. While a graduate student in the 1970s, he built the first wearable digital computer, which was successfully used to predict the game of roulette. This podcast covers what chaos theory is, what complexity science is, how economists model the economy, and much more. 

     

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    30 August 2024, 7:02 am
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