This week we discuss what the latest CPI data means for markets, whether we’re in the early stages of the credit cycle, and trading Inauguration day. We also delve into the crypto reserve debate, the potential BOJ rate hike, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UR_BWMbyzFgxqrCEZ6DjhGK36TDJQEjX/view?usp=sharing

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps

(00:00) Introduction

(02:44) CPI & Inflation

(09:03) Yields, Positioning, & Market Whipsaw

(12:27) Growth Debate

(22:01) Ads

(23:16) Equity Contra-Indicators

(27:54) Inauguration Day: Buy Or Sell The News?

(31:14) Crypto Reserve Debate

(35:11) Bonds Recycling Into Other Assets

(37:05) Fiat Debasement & Trump

(39:23) Japan & BOJ Rate Hike

(45:20) Nasdaq Vs Small Caps

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Warren Pies joins the show to discuss his outlook for 2025, his view of the housing market, and why he thinks inflation fears are overblown. We also delve into equity valuations, the long bond trade, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Warren Pies: https://x.com/WarrenPies

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:20) 2025 Outlook

(05:50) Economic Tensions & The Bond Market

(11:21) Fed Terminal Rate & Restrictiveness

(16:29) Housing Market & Employment

(23:43) Impact Of LA Fires

(26:48) Ads

(28:45) December SEP

(32:25) Rate Cut Expectations

(34:56) Inflation Overview

(39:50) Debating Case For Sticky Inflation

(43:12) Equity Valuations

(50:19) Growth Vs Value

(52:59) Long Bond Trade

(56:23) Commodities Outlook

(57:41) Learn More About Warren’s Work

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the looming growth scare, the dollar wrecking ball driving a global margin call, and global yields nearing an inflection point. We also delve into the housing affordability crisis, the public spending problem, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vUv3VzZIBynaGgOynsWw6iCbWicPhH8x/view?usp=sharing

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:55) December Jobs Report

(06:16) Other Labor Market Data

(07:50) Is The Cutting Cycle Over?

(11:24) DAS 2025

(14:34) Economic Slowdown In 2025?

(20:57) Global Margin Call

(27:10) Dollar Dilemma

(29:58) Global Bond Yields

(33:20) Yield Curve Dynamics

(35:22) Trifecta Of Tightening

(37:25) Crypto Politics

(39:16) 2Y-10Y Curve & Yield Threshold

(40:05) Ads

(42:03) 2Y-10Y Curve & Yield Threshold (Con't)

(45:24) Trump Administration & Uncertainty Hysteria

(49:12) NFP Prediction

(49:52) TLT & Positioning

(52:13) Housing Affordability Crisis

(57:05) Yield Solutions

(59:59) 2-Year Trade

(01:01:12) Bitcoin & The Inauguration

(01:04:22) Public Spending Problem

(01:11:15) Decentralization Of Everything

(01:12:35) Killing The Four Year Cycle Narrative

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Joe McCann joins the show to discuss why he’s tactically bearish, the US dollar’s implications for risk assets, and his crypto shopping list. We also delve into bottom signals, the outlook for 2025, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Joe McCann: https://x.com/joemccann

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io

—

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

01:54 Macro & Crypto Overview

10:01 Implications Of Hawkish Fed

13:37 Inauguration & The US Dollar

18:43 Ads

20:41 Crypto Market Outlook

24:39 Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

27:36 Crypto Shopping List

33:02 Bottom Signals

36:53 2025 Outlook

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jonny Matthews joins the show to discuss Fed policy and its impact on yields, US productivity, and resilience in the labor market. We also delve into the Trump Administration's potential impact on markets, the outlook for US equities, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Jonny Matthews: https://x.com/super_macro

Super Macro: https://super-macro.com/

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:11) No Recession Call

(04:04) Fed Meeting

(06:43) Fed Policy & Era Of Higher Rates

(10:27) US Vs Global Productivity

(14:27) Global Growth Outlook

(17:12) Inflation Overview

(22:35) Income & Consumption Disparities

(25:36) Impact Of Fed Policy

(29:20) Ads

(30:33) Labor Market Overview

(35:42) Trump’s Potential Immigration Policy

(38:12) Fading DOGE, Deregulation, & Tariffs

(40:25) SOFR, Term Premium, & Central Bank Policy

(47:42) Risk Assets & US Equities

(50:52) Fed Gilt Crisis Moment?

(52:33) Alternative Assets

(55:05) Euro & US Dollar

(57:10) Learn More About Jonny’s Work

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, David Cervantes and DCP join the show to discuss the FOMC post-mortem, the similarities to the 90s business cycle, and managing emotions in markets. We also reflect on the COVID crash, dig into expectations for 2025, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow David Cervantes: https://x.com/EconstratPB

David’s Substack: https://substack.com/@pinebrookcap

Follow DCP: https://x.com/Dcpcooks

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:12) Donnie’s Background

(08:00) David’s Trading Framework

(09:08) FOMC Post-Mortem

(19:19) Fed Guidance & Market Surprises

(21:49) DCP’s Edge

(23:55) New Government Regime

(24:49) Reflecting On Trades

(26:28) Similarities To The 90s

(30:45) Ads

(31:58) Interview Continues

(33:11) So You Want To Be A Trader?

(35:05) We’re Mid-Cycle, Not Late-Cycle

(37:05) Managing Emotions

(40:43) Trading Wisdom

(44:52) Reflecting On The COVID Crash

(51:55) Trading Insights

(53:53) Trading Bonds Vs ES

(59:16) 2025 Expectations

(01:05:15) Trump & The Deficit

(01:07:08) Closing

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this special crossover episode with On the Margin, Travis Kling joins the show to discuss financial nihilism, the logistics of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, and the potential impact of the incoming administration. We also delve into the crypto market outlook, product market fit across the industry, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Travis Kling: https://x.com/Travis_Kling

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:20) Macro Outlook

(07:14) Philosophical Vibe Shift

(12:39) Financial Nihilism

(16:40) Unpacking The Next Administration

(20:11) Misaligned Incentives

(23:23) Ads

(25:24) Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

(38:15) BSR & The US Dollar

(47:06) Crypto Market Outlook

(50:04) Crypto Product Market Fit

(55:18) Fundamentals Bearish?

(57:07) Learn More About Travis’ Work

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss whether the Fed made the right decision, the post-FOMC volatility spike, and the China risk to markets. We also delve into the labor market, the 1998 framework for today’s economy, 2025 expectations, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DPQNetklHAXhw6bAJwRkD0qjeuE0klyk/view?usp=sharing

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Timestamps

(00:00) Introduction

(03:03) Why The Fed Did The Right Thing

(06:36) Is Inflation Rolling Over?

(12:01) Trump Policy Impact

(14:16) Explaining The Volatility Spike

(20:02) 2025 Monetary Policy Outlook

(22:02) Mapping The Market Rotation

(27:43) VIX & Market Positioning

(31:46) China Risk

(33:42) Ads

(35:36) Systematic Volatility

(37:50) China Structural Issues & Stimulus

(39:54) Bond Yields Vs Equities

(43:31) 2025 Rate Cutting Path

(46:54) Labor Market & Supply Shocks

(51:04) Economic Optimism & Lending

(52:35) Growth & Oil Outlook

(54:58) Bessent Economic Plan

(57:15) 1998 Framework

(59:55) Productive Capacity Boom

(01:03:04) End-Of-Year Thoughts

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss the latest Fed decision, its December economic projections, and what to expect from markets going into 2025. We also delve into why he expects way more than two rate cuts next year, why he’s bearish on US equities in 2025, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Joseph Wang: https://x.com/FedGuy12

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:44) Hawkish FOMC Conference

(06:21) Immigration Impact

(09:50) 2025 Surprises

(12:34) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs

(15:01) What Is The Fed Thinking?

(20:25) Peak Hawkishness

(21:59) Long-Term Rates

(23:25) SEP As A Psychological Tool

(25:34) Ads

(27:27) Fed Surveys & Politics

(29:15) The Neutral Rate

(31:13) How The Fed Gauges Restrictiveness

(32:57) Reverse Repo

(38:38) Treasury Coupon Issuance

(40:25) Equities & The Dollar

(44:01) Gold & Crypto

(45:54) Long Bonds, Commodities, & Inflation

(50:28) Main Takeaways

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the small cap trade, the upcoming Fed decision, and whether inflation risks are overblown. We also delve into China’s balance sheet recession, Bitcoin & MicroStrategy, housing affordability, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qTKN9-iNXNqFBgZSx03BFmi24BiaCeQv/view?usp=sharing

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:31) Small Business Optimism & Trump Trades

(07:58) Mag7 Blow Off Top?

(09:42) Unwind In Momentum Factor

(11:18) China Balance Sheet Recession

(13:34) Small Caps, Liquidity, & The Dollar

(15:30) Dovish Fed

(16:51) Labor Market & Claims

(21:38) Fed Policy & Global Easing

(26:00) Rate Steepening

(27:13) Ads

(29:15) Trump Peace Dividend

(32:51) Inflation & CPI

(36:22) Continuing Goldilocks

(39:52) Bitcoin

(43:50) MicroStrategy & Convert Financing

(50:53) Vol Controllers

(53:48) Geopolitics

(55:23) Cash Bubble

(57:07) New Credit Cycle

(59:17) Housing Affordability

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Warren Mosler joins the show to discuss the counterintuitive impact of that Federal Funds rate, the impact of government spending, and the economics of trade and tariffs. We also delve into the shifting duration of US debt, whether deficits matter, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Warren Mosler: https://x.com/wbmosler

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:41) Warren’s Macro Overview

(06:19) Understanding The Neutral Rate

(14:16) Fed Funds & Inflation

(21:14) Rate Cuts Are Cooling Inflation

(22:54) Ads

(25:02) Rate Hikes Are Stimulative

(27:32) Deficit Spending Is Money Printing

(28:27) Taxes & Government Spending

(31:56) The Effect Of Monetary Acronyms

(34:29) The K-Shaped Economy

(37:29) Zero Rate & Asset Bubbles

(39:05) Politics & The Oil Market

(41:29) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs

(49:41) Taxes, Unemployment, & Financing More Stuff

(56:38) Does The Deficit Matter?

(58:42) Impact Of Shifting Debt Duration

(01:01:14) The Bid For Duration

(01:04:57) Warren’s Trading

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.