The Macro Trading Floor

Alfonso Peccatiello & Brent Donnelly

The Macro Trading Floor is a fun and actionable macro and markets podcast hosted by Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly. If you are looking for banter, financial education, and actionable trade ideas this is the podcast for you!

  • 36 minutes 31 seconds
    You Ready For Liberation Day?

    Alf and Brent discuss the ''Liberation Day'' deadline for tariffs - and come up with some interesting conclusions. Also, the duo assesses what the Trump administration's long-term plan might be. Finally, Alf and Brent discuss the concept and risk management behind carry trades.


    Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-27mar25/

    28 March 2025, 2:35 pm
  • 36 minutes 44 seconds
    Wake Up: The German Fiscal Stimulus Is Huge

    Alf and Brent discuss the German fiscal stimulus announcement: with its gigantic magnitude and fast-track process, this marks a historical turnaround for Germany and Europe. The implications for markets are big in stocks, bonds, and FX.


    If you want to chat with Alf, ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg or send an email to alf@palinurocapital.com


    If you want to chat with Brent, ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg.

    7 March 2025, 2:00 pm
  • 37 minutes 42 seconds
    Growth Scare: Yes or No?

    Alf and Brent unpack the last big market moves which investors are broadly interpreting as a growth scare. Is that the correct interpretation? And in general: are we going to have a US growth scare or not?


    Interested in Alf's institutional macro research?

    Contact him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg or via alf@themacrocompass.com


    Interested in Brent's daily FX research reports?

    Contact him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg or check out Spectra AM/FX

    28 February 2025, 2:00 pm
  • 35 minutes 42 seconds
    The Next Big Macro Trade

    Markets are caught between cross currents, and the thesis for a stronger USD / sticky inflation seems as valid as the thesis for gentle disinflation / slower growth. Brent and Alf discuss what the next big macro trade could be.


    Want access to Alf's institutional macro research? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg or send an email at alf@themacrocompass.com


    Want access to Brent's research notes? Ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg or visit https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/


    Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20feb25/

    21 February 2025, 2:00 pm
  • 33 minutes 39 seconds
    How To Trade Tariff Day

    In this episode, Alf and Brent reflect on the upcoming ''Tariff Day'' and how to trade it. The duo shares their scenario-based approach covering multiple asset classes including bonds, FX and equities.


    Alf can be reached via X (@MacroAlf) and on Bloomberg (Alfonso Peccatiello)

    Brent can be reached via X (@@donnelly_brent) and on Bloomberg (Brent Donnelly)


    Show notes: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-6-options-or-cash

    Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-17jan25/

    17 January 2025, 1:45 pm
  • 35 minutes 57 seconds
    The UK Bond Market Is Imploding

    Alf and Brent discuss the big moves in UK bond markets and the drop in the UK Sterling: bond vigilantes are in action, but what next? They also focus on the upcoming tariff announcement and the impact on US bond markets, the US Dollar and equity markets.


    Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-10jan25/

    10 January 2025, 2:32 pm
  • 38 minutes 53 seconds
    The Most Hawkish Fed In Years - What Now?

    Powell delivered a super hawkish message: inflation remains sticky, and the Fed won’t cut rates as much as the market expected in 2025. The “Fed Put” is not there anymore - should investors go and buy their own puts?


    Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20dec24/

    20 December 2024, 2:00 pm
  • 36 minutes 50 seconds
    The US Dilemma in 2025

    Alf and Brent discuss the US dilemma in 2025: should Trump be aggressive out of the gate with tariffs sacrificing growth for foreign policy victories, or should he focus on other priorities allowing Powell to cut rates and facilitate the refinancing of $7 trillion of maturing Treasuries? The duo also discussed the perils and benefits of leverage in trading and investing.


    Do you want to ask questions to Brent and Alf?


    Reach out to Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg.


    Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-13dec24/

    13 December 2024, 2:24 pm
  • 33 minutes 34 seconds
    Trading Trump 2.0

    Alf and Brent resume the show by assessing how to approach Trump 2.0 from a macro trading perspective in 2025. They also discuss the ''Death of Europe'': is it happening, or is it an overcrowded narrative?


    Trial for Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/25heFudTB4ouuJ1H6


    Brent's Daily Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/


    Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-06dec24/

    6 December 2024, 2:00 pm
  • 34 minutes 5 seconds
    Trump's Secret Agenda

    In this week's episode, Brent and Alf discuss the implications of a Republican sweep. Markets reacted in a textbook way, but today they are busy unwinding most ''Trump trades''. Should we take Trump's agenda at face value and assume it's negative for bonds and positive for the USD? Or should we instead dig deeper and figure out what Trump really wants?


    FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86


    Check out Brent's research: https://www.spectramarkets.com/


    Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-08nov24/

    8 November 2024, 2:00 pm
  • 36 minutes 15 seconds
    The Bond Market Is On Fire

    Heading into US elections, US bond markets are on fire: yields are selling off, the term premium is back in positive territory, and investors are worried the sell-off can extend further.

    Alf and Brent discuss a framework to assess bond yields, the role of tariffs, how to look at the US Dollar and they also zoom in on Canada where the Central Bank has been forced to aggressively cut interest rates.


    FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86


    Check out Brent's research: https://www.spectramarkets.com/


    Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-25oct24/

    25 October 2024, 1:00 pm
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