On Investing

Charles Schwab

From market moves to the latest economic news, On Investing looks below the surface of the headline data to bring you fresh insights on what's happening and why—and what the implications are for your portfolio. Hosted by Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders and Chief Fixed Income Strategist Kathy Jones, On Investing is a weekly audio magazine featuring a variety of Schwab experts and special guests sharing their insights on equities, fixed income, macroeconomic issues, and more. Find it at Schwab.com/OnInvesting or wherever you get your podcasts. Podcasts are for informational purposes only. This channel is not monitored by Charles Schwab. Please visit Schwab.com/ContactUs for contact options. (0823-3DKU)

  • 19 minutes 35 seconds
    Navigating Post-Election Market Dynamics

    In this week's episode, Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist, and Kathy Jones, Schwab's Chief Fixed Income Strategist, discuss the immediate market reactions following the recent election, focusing on the equity and bond markets. They explore the implications of potential fiscal policies, the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions, and the importance of cautious investment strategies in light of uncertainty. The discussion also highlights the significance of economic indicators and the potential for market volatility in the near future. 

    On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

    If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

     

    Important Disclosures

    The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. 

    Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. 

    All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. 

    Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. 

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

    Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

    International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.

    Currencies are speculative, very volatile and are not suitable for all investors.

    Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research.

    Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and cannot protect against losses in a declining market.

    Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.

    Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

    Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are guaranteed by the US Government, but inflation-protected bond funds do not provide such a guarantee.

    The information and content provided herein is general in nature and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended, and should not be construed, as a specific recommendation, individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Tax laws are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, individuals should contact their own professional tax and investment advisors or other professionals (CPA, Financial Planner, Investment Manager) to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based upon this information.

    Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.

    The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

    Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

    (1124-48LR)

    8 November 2024, 8:00 am
  • 29 minutes 57 seconds
    Our First Podcast Anniversary: Lessons From the Past Year

    In this episode marking the one-year anniversary of the podcast, Liz Ann and Kathy discuss the significant market events and trends they've noted over the past year. They examine the volatility in interest rates, the dynamics of the equity market, and the performance of corporate earnings. The conversation also highlights memorable guests and moments from the podcast, as well as the evolving nature of market analysis. 

    Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann look ahead to next week's election, Fed meeting, and economic data releases.

    On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

    If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

    Important Disclosures

    The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.  

    All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.  

    Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.  

    All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

    Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.  

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

    Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

    Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

    Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are guaranteed by the US Government, but inflation-protected bond funds do not provide such a guarantee.

    Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.

    The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

    Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

    (1124-2U8C)

    1 November 2024, 7:00 am
  • 35 minutes 58 seconds
    Understanding Recent Volatility in the Bond Market

    In this episode, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders discuss several of the latest economic indicators, focusing on inflation, employment, and the housing market. They analyze the current state of the S&P 500®, bond yields, and the implications of global interest rate cuts. The discussion highlights the importance of understanding market rotations and the impact of economic data on investment strategies.

    Next, Kathy speaks with Collin Martin, director and fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. Kathy and Collin discuss the current state of the fixed income markets, focusing on the outlook for interest rates, corporate credit spreads, issuance dynamics, preferred securities, TIPS, and strategies for building a bond portfolio. They explore the resilience of the economy, the implications of Fed policy, and the importance of understanding various investment vehicles in the context of market volatility and economic uncertainty.

    You can read more about the Basel III regulations Collin mentions here.

    Lastly, Kathy and Liz Ann review the schedule for next week's economic data and indicators—and tell you which ones really matter.

    On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

    If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

    Important Disclosures

    The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.  

    All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.  

    Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.  

    All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

    Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.  

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

    Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

    Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

    Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are guaranteed by the US Government, but inflation-protected bond funds do not provide such a guarantee.

    Preferred securities are a type of hybrid investment that share characteristics of both stock and bonds. They are often callable, meaning the issuing company may redeem the security at a certain price after a certain date. Such call features, and the timing of a call, may affect the security’s yield. Preferred securities generally have lower credit ratings and a lower claim to assets than the issuer's individual bonds. Like bonds, prices of preferred securities tend to move inversely with interest rates, so their prices may fall during periods of rising interest rates. Investment value will fluctuate, and preferred securities, when sold before maturity, may be worth more or less than original cost. Preferred securities are subject to various other risks including changes in interest rates and credit quality, default risks, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, deferral risk, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

    Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.

    Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

    Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.

    The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

    The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

    Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

    (1024-1GEH)

    25 October 2024, 7:00 am
  • 38 minutes 25 seconds
    What Does a Credit Analyst Do?

    In this episode, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders discuss the current state of the bond market and the bull market in equities. They explore the volatility in bond yields, the significance of credit spreads, and the importance of employment and inflation data.

    This week, Kathy speaks with Carol Spain, managing director and head of credit research for Schwab Asset Management. Kathy and Carol delve into the intricacies of credit analysis, exploring Carol's unique career path, the role of credit analysts, and the current conditions in the credit market. They discuss the dynamics between credit research and portfolio management, the trends in credit spreads, and the factors influencing corporate credit quality. The conversation highlights the importance of understanding both macroeconomic conditions and issuer-specific factors in credit analysis, while also addressing the outlook for credit opportunities and potential risks in the market.

    Lastly, Kathy and Liz Ann review the schedule for next week's economic data and indicators—and tell you which ones really matter.

    Read the article by Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon on the bull market, "Is the Two-Year-Old Bull Market 2 Legit 2 Quit?"

    On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

    If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

    Important Disclosures

    The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

    All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

    Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

    All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

    Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

    Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

    Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

    Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

    Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.

    The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

    Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

    ISM is the Institute for Supply Management.  https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/

    JOLTS is the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey.

    (1024-ZTAY)

    18 October 2024, 7:00 am
  • 41 minutes 35 seconds
    Current Pros & Cons in the Market (With Paul Hickey)

    How can the stock market be a hedge against inflation? What are some pros and cons of the current market environment?

    In this conversation, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders discuss the recent jobs report, which exceeded expectations, and its implications for the economy and Federal Reserve policy. They explore the strength of the labor market, the bond market's reaction, and the importance of consumer spending in driving economic growth. 

    Then, Liz Ann is joined by Paul Hickey, cofounder of Bespoke Investment Group. They discuss various aspects of the stock market, focusing on the importance of time in the market, mitigating emotional decision-making, and the overall impact of inflation on cash and purchasing power. They explore current market conditions, including pros and cons, geopolitical risks, and the role of the Fed. Both emphasize the significance of long-term investing and the potential for positive market outcomes despite short-term volatility.

    Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann offer the outlook for next week's economic data and indicators.

    On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

    If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

    Important Disclosures 

    The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. 
    All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. 
    Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. 
    All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

    Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. 
    Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.
    The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.
    Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

    Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.
    Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.
    The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

    Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research.
    Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

    The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is designed to gauge and track the pulse of the single-family housing market. https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index

    (1024-YK77)

    11 October 2024, 7:00 am
  • 25 minutes 35 seconds
    Making Sense of the Current Economic Cycle

    In this episode, Liz Ann and Kathy discuss the unique characteristics of the current economic cycle, emphasizing its differences from historical cycles. They explore the implications of geopolitical events on market behavior, the Fed's potential reactions to inflationary pressures, and the significance of historical Fed cycles in understanding market trends. 

    Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann offer the outlook for next week's economic data and indicators.

    You can read Liz Ann's articles on historical rate-cutting cycles: "What Past Fed Rate Cycles Can Tell Us" and "It's Time … For a Fed Pivot."

    On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

    If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

    Important Disclosures

    The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. 

    All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. 

    Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. 

    All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

    Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. 

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

    Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

    Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) may be more sensitive to interest rate changes than other fixed income investments. They are subject to extension risk, where borrowers extend the duration of their mortgages as interest rates rise, and prepayment risk, where borrowers pay off their mortgages earlier as interest rates fall. These risks may reduce returns.

    Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see ​schwab.com/indexdefinitions.

    Currency trading is speculative, volatile and not suitable for all investors.

    ​Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.

    The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

    Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

    (1024-WXZC)

    4 October 2024, 7:00 am
  • 38 minutes 20 seconds
    Under-the-Surface Employment Indicators to Watch (With Doug Ramsey)

    In this episode, Kathy and Liz Ann open by discussing the implications of the recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve, focusing on the labor market and upcoming economic indicators. They explore how the rate cut may affect various economic sectors, including borrowing rates and consumer spending. They also highlight the importance of under-the-surface labor market data in predicting future Fed actions.

    Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist, interviews Doug Ramsey, Chief Investment Officer of the Leuthold Group. They discuss the implications of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle on the economy, focusing on labor market dynamics, employment indicators, and the current state of the equity market. They analyze the recent bull market, its origins, and the potential for emerging leadership in various sectors, while also addressing the significance of the yield curve and market valuations.

    Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann offer their outlook for next week's economic data and indicators.

    On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

    If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

    Important Disclosures

    Investors should consider carefully information contained in the prospectus, or if available, the summary prospectus, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. You can request a prospectus by calling 800-435-4000. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing

    The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

    All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

    Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

    The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

    All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

    Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

    Futures and futures options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Please read the Risk Disclosure Statement for Futures and Options prior to trading futures products.

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

    Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.

    The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

    Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

    Tens/Twos or 10s/2s refers to the spread between the 10-Year Treasury maturity rate minus the 2-Year Treasury maturity rate. The rates are comprised of Market Matrix U.S. Generic spread rates (USYC2Y10).  This spread is a calculated Bloomberg yield spread that replicates selling the current 2-year U.S. Treasury Note and buying the current 10-year U.S. Treasury Note, then factoring the differences by 100.

    (0924-V45J)

    27 September 2024, 7:00 am
  • 31 minutes 29 seconds
    What the Fed Rate Cut Means (With Claudia Sahm)

    With the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting, what are the implications for the bond market and the economy? In this episode, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders analyze the market's reaction to the rate cut, the balance between panic and greed in investment strategies, and the upcoming economic indicators that could influence market movements. Their discussion highlights the importance of understanding labor market trends and consumer sentiment in the context of inflation and economic policy.

    This week, Kathy sits down with Claudia Sahm, a former economist for the Federal Reserve and the White House Council of Economic Advisors. Perhaps best known for the recession indicator that bears her name, Claudia Sahm is now the chief economist for New Century Advisors.

    Kathy and Claudia discuss the labor market, highlighting its resilience and the need for a sustainable expansion. The discussion moves on to inflation, with Claudia explaining that recent inflation has been driven by supply-side shocks rather than demand. She expresses confidence in the Fed's ability to reach its 2% inflation target. The conversation also touches on the debate within the Fed and the potential impact of the Fed's communication on financial markets. Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann offer their outlook for next week's economic indicators and data.

    You can follow Claudia Sahm's newsletter, Stay-at-Home Macro, at https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/.

    On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

    If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

    Important Disclosures

    The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. 

    All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. 

    Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. 

    The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

    All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

    Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. 

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

    Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. 

    For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.

    Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. 

    Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

    Small cap investments are subject to greater volatility than those in other asset categories.

    The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

    Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

    (0924-TT5B)

    20 September 2024, 7:00 am
  • 27 minutes 25 seconds
    Before the Rate Cut, Our View of the Markets

    In this episode, Kathy and Liz Ann follow up on the release of last week's unemployment numbers and the reaction of the stock market to the jobs report. The expectation is still for a 25-basis-point cut at next week's Fed meeting. The conversation also touches on the un-inversion of the yield curve and its implications for the bond market. 

    This week, Kevin Gordon joins the podcast to discuss equities and sector views. Kevin is a director and senior investment strategist and serves as Liz Ann Sonders' research associate. Kevin and Liz Ann discuss the recent changes in Schwab's sector ratings and the focus on factors rather than sectors. They also talk about the leadership shifts in the market, particularly in the Magnificent Seven stocks. They touch on the importance of diversification and the performance of different sectors. They then delve into the upcoming Fed rate cuts and the historical market behavior during fast-cutting cycles versus slow-cutting cycles. 

    Lastly, Kathy and Liz Ann look ahead to next week's FOMC meeting and the other economic data on the horizon. Key economic data to watch for next week includes retail sales, industrial production, housing market indicators, and the Leading Economic Index.

    You can keep up with Schwab Sector Views here and also read the report that Kevin and Liz Ann discuss here: "It's Time … For a Fed Pivot."

    On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

    If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

     

    Important Disclosures

    The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.  

    All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.  

    Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.  

    All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

    Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.  

    Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

    Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.

    Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

    The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

    Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

    The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is designed to gauge and track the pulse of the single-family housing market. https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index

    (0924-SFF0)

    13 September 2024, 8:00 am
  • 23 minutes 13 seconds
    Focus on Labor: The History & Importance of Employment Data

    Why are payroll numbers reported as "nonfarm" jobs? What other jobs are excluded from the unemployment rate? Why is "hours worked" an important recession indicator? For this shorter week, Liz Ann and Kathy discuss various aspects of the labor market and its indicators. 

    They touch on the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the overall unemployment rate, initial jobless claims, and other key metrics. They also discuss the uniqueness of the current labor market cycle and the challenges in analyzing it. The conversation then shifts to the Federal Reserve's focus on employment and inflation and the potential impact of the upcoming jobs report on Fed policy. 

    Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann provide their outlook for the next week's economic data and market events.

    You can read more about the history of the Department of Labor in this article on their website and explore the data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

    If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

    Important Disclosures

    The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. 

    All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. 

    Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. 

    All  names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

    Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. 

    ​Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

    The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

    Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.
    (0924-PYS2)

    6 September 2024, 7:00 am
  • 19 minutes 32 seconds
    The Fed at Jackson Hole & Revised Employment Data

    In this conversation, Kathy and Liz Ann discuss quotes and sayings from industry legends that have resonated with them over the years. You can read Liz Ann's article about her reminiscences in the industry and watch the clip of Marty Zweig calling the crash of ’87 on YouTube

    Kathy and Liz Ann also talk about the Federal Reserve's annual conference at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and why the economic symposium takes place there. Then, they dig into the Bureau of Labor Statistics' benchmark revisions to the annual payroll data and the market's reaction to the revised numbers. They agree that it's unlikely the Fed will cut 50 basis points in September.

    Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann provide their outlook for the next week's economic data and market events.

    On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

    If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

    Important Disclosures

    The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.  

    All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.  

    Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.  

    Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.  

    The information and content provided herein is general in nature and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended, and should not be construed, as a specific recommendation, individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Tax laws are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, individuals should contact their own professional tax and investment advisors or other professionals (CPA, Financial Planner, Investment Manager) to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based upon this information.  

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

    Futures, and Futures options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Please read the Risk Disclosure Statement for Futures and Options prior to trading futures products.

    All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

    The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

    Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

    The books Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Market Wizards, Random Walk Down Wall Street, The Money Game, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds, and Against the Gods are not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Schwab has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about their content.

    (0824-M7F0)

    23 August 2024, 7:00 am
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