Nate and Maria take a closer look at the results of the election. They discuss polling errors, prediction markets, demographic shifts, and campaign strategy. And Nate shares some parting advice for President Biden.

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

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With the 96th Academy Awards this Sunday, we wanted to revisit this episode from last year. The Oscars seems to be cursed with a series of chaotic live television gaffes. But one moment in Academy Award history takes the cake. In 1974, a scrawny white man named Robert Opel ran across the stage butt naked, right as the Best Picture category was being announced. New Yorker magazine writer and Oscars aficionado Michael Schulman recounts the queer, wonderful, and historic life of the 1974 Oscars streaker. 

You can read the full story here: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/02/06/what-became-of-the-oscar-streaker 

You can find Michael Schulman’s new book Oscar Wars here.

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After his cartooning career failed to take off, a German artist named Arno Funke started extorting department stores.  He went by “Dagobert,” the German name for the character of Scrooge McDuck in the cartoon DuckTales. His crime spree lasted for years and made him a folk hero across Germany. Recently, reporter Jeff Maysh got to meet him. 

You can read Jeff Maysh’s New Yorker article “The Strange Story of Dagobert, the ‘DuckTales’ Bandit”  here: https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/the-strange-story-of-dagobert-the-ducktales-bandit

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“Bronze Age Pervert” is the moniker of an influential far-right thinker. He has hundreds of thousands of followers on Twitter. His book is a top-seller on Amazon, and was reviewed by a former Trump administration official. Journalist Graeme Wood knew him before all that, back when he was just a college student in tevas. 

You can read Graeme Wood’s Atlantic story “How Bronze Age Pervert Charmed the Far Right” here: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/09/bronze-age-pervert-costin-alamariu/674762/ 

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When Andrew Leland was a teenager he learned he had a rare disease that would cause him to become blind by the time he reached middle age. He recently decided to prepare by attending a special school for blind people. 

You can read Andrew’s essay for the New Yorker, “How to Be Blind” here: https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-weekend-essay/how-to-be-blind 

And you can find Andrew’s new book, The Country of the Blind here: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/635964/the-country-of-the-blind-by-andrew-leland/ 

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A car mechanic named Jeff Carpoff invented a portable solar generator. Companies like Geico and Progressive Insurance bought thousands of his generators because they got tax credits for doing so. But there was something not quite right about Carpoff’s invention. You can read Ariel Saber’s Atlantic story, “The Billion Dollar Ponzi Scheme that hooked Warren Buffett and the US Treasury,” here: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/06/dc-solar-power-ponzi-scheme-scandal/673782/ 

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Xochitl Gonzalez spent years planning the weddings of New York’s wealthiest couples. This is the story of the craziest wedding she’s ever planned.

You can read Xochitl Gonzalez’s Atlantic story “The Fake Poor Bride,” here: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/07/luxury-wedding-planners-industrial-complex-cost/674169/

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A developer named Domenic Broccoli wanted to build an IHOP in Fishkill, New York. But after it was discovered that the plot of land he was planning to build on may have been a Revolutionary War grave site, he became embroiled in a war of his own. 

You can read Reeves Wiedeman’s New York Magazine story “The Battle of Fishkill” here: https://www.curbed.com/article/ihop-fishkill-ny-domenic-broccoli-revolutionary-war.html 

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Laos used to be known as “the land of a million elephants.” Now, there are only about 800 elephants left in the country. Reporter Paul Kvinta went undercover to learn about the illegal elephant trade, and ended up putting in an offer on an elephant himself. 

You can read read Paul Kvinta’s Outside Magazine story “I Bought an Elephant to Find Out How to Save Them,” here: https://www.outsideonline.com/outdoor-adventure/environment/asian-elephant-trafficking-captivity-laos/ 

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Simone Gold, a former ER doctor, is the founder of a non-profit called “America’s Frontline Doctors,” known for spreading misinformation about COVID. After she was arrested for taking part in the Jan. 6 insurrection, she received millions of dollars in donations. And that’s when the feuding within her organization began. 

You can read Joel Stein’s Financial Times story, “How a squad of MAGA warriors flush with cash turned on each other” here: https://www.ft.com/stream/3264fe6d-3997-493c-9f77-e565bd75eb1a

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How did the Guinness World Records company come to be? And how, in the age of the internet, does the company make money? Imogen West-Knights spent a year investigating. She learned how to be a record adjudicator (it’s riskier than it sounds), met a man who has broken more than 700 records, and tried to break a record herself. 

You can read Imogen West-Knight’s Guardian story, “The Strange Survival of Guinness World Records,” here: https://www.theguardian.com/news/2023/may/25/guinness-world-records-norris-mcwhirter-ashrita-furman 

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