Markets are front-loading the effect of potential Trump policy changes in 2025, which will keep volatility elevated says Ben Emons, founder and outsourced chief investment officer of Fed Watch Advisors. Emons is joined by Bloomberg Intelligence’s Ira Jersey, chief US rate strategist, and Will Hoffman, senior US and Canada rates strategy associate, to discuss the outcome of the December FOMC meeting and the implications for markets in the year ahead. They discuss moves across domestic markets, including curve behavior and drivers in Treasuries, as well as the potential for additional volatility across global markets in 2025. The trio also hits on cross-currency hedging costs and direction, as well as technical adjustments to Fed policy, as it attempts to alleviate some stress in funding markets.

A new administration and the specter of inflation are among the levers for municipal bonds moving into next year. On this month’s Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and co-host Karen Altamirano are joined by three bank strategists with differing takes on the municipal landscape for 2025.Peter Degroot, head of municipal research and strategy at JPMorgan; Vikram Rai, who leads municipal-markets strategy at Wells Fargo; and Mikhail Foux, chief of municipal research at Barclays reflect on this year’s muni performance and discuss their calls for the year ahead.

Private credit has expanded toward $2 trillion for direct lending and related markets, with another $5 trillion in asset-based finance, making for ample lender opportunities in the view of Daniel Pietrzak, KKR partner and global head of private credit. Pietrzak rejoined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to talk about the market’s growth, the current risk climate and how the incoming presidential administration may influence the market opportunity. They also examine the recent growth in investment grade private credit, the risk transfer market and prospects for an active secondary.

With credit markets enjoying a strong 2024 and with many uncertainties, charting the course for 2025 is a challenge. Will US trade policies slow Fed cuts and will ECB easing stay the course as priced, and what will this mean for credit? Will stubborn US yields filter into Europe? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, chief European credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Marc Rovers, Head of European Credit at Legal & General Investment Management, discuss the state of credit and the 2025 outlook for US and Europe.

They tackle relative value across credit on both sides of the Atlantic; high yield and high grade; fund flows and supply; defaults and ratings; fundamental and curve views. They also detail the risks across the US, UK and Europe, including German and French politics.

Emerging-market central banks have historically followed the Federal Reserve, yet 2025 will be a year of divergence as monetary and fiscal policy responses evolve. Sergey Goncharov, portfolio manager and head of fixed income Americas at Vontobel, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief emerging market fixed income strategist Damian Sassower to discuss his year-ahead outlook for the EM fixed-income asset class. Goncharov and Sassower touch on issues ranging from US protectionism and Chinese stimulus to European growth and EM fund flows.

Ol' Saint FICC is here to stuff your stockings with 2025 market outlooks from all your favorite podcast hosts. Rates, credit, municipals, EM, MBS, currencies, bankruptcy and volatility are all covered, while the team also takes a brief look back at memorable moments of 2024.

“A marriage…chemistry… [and] shared vision” is how Bain Capital partner Angelo Rufino described investments centered around a new asset class of hybrid capital that combines features of debt and equity in a conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Negisa Balluku that took place live at Beard Group’s Distressed Investing Conference. As Head of Special Situations in North America as well as Head of Corporate Special Situations in Europe, Rufino shared his perspective on the bespoke nature and the “win-win” value proposition of a special situations product that provides both operational value-add and financing capital. (8:36)

Prior to that, Noel Hebert, head of Bloomberg Intelligence’s global credit strategy, and Philip Brendel, BI distressed-credit analyst, assessed the impact of an improved M&A environment in a Trump administration on distressed-debt supply. The podcast concludes with Negisa, Phil and Noel discussing the latest developments in Spirit Airlines, J&J’s talc bankruptcy, Yellow, Hertz, Avon and Hearthside. (52:27)

The significant tightening in corporate bonds recently has left asset-backed securities looking cheaper, says Rod Chadehumbe, Bloomberg Intelligence’s asset-backed securities strategist. Chadehumbe is joined by host and BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey to discuss the state of the US ABS market. The pair dive into the engineering of the various types of products, as well as the general risk-reward profiles available to investors. They also hit on the liquidity and volatility dynamics of the asset class, expectations for ABS relative value in 2025 and forecasts for new issuance in the coming year.

Emerging-market assets are likely to swing on US-centric narratives, yet domestic growth and inflation dynamics may be of less concern than in previous cycles. Ricardo Adrogue, head of global sovereign debt and currencies at Barings, joinsDamian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief emerging market fixed income strategist, to discuss the year-ahead outlook for EM credit, rates and foreign exchange. Adrogue and Sassower touch on issues ranging from US trade policy and EM remittances to Chinese deflation and a weaker euro.

The EM Lens podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Deteriorating French political headlines are exacerbating the underwhelming French and euro-zone economic narrative, confirming what has become a compellingly euro bearish case into 2025. Still, talk of an existential risk to the currency appears premature, and much of the bad news is arguably priced in. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX Strategist, talks to Elliot Hentov, global head of macro policy research at State Street Global Advisors, about what could trigger a turnaround in Europe's fortunes and how that could impact asset allocations into 2025.

Elliot and Audrey also touch on president-elect Donald Trump's key appointments so far and what they may mean for policy -- particularly trade.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu gives an update on how the US bond market volatility has remained elevated to equity and FX volatility. Rates volatility may drift lower with the Fed in no hurry but greater conviction on the neutral rate will be the signal for a more meaningful decline given forecast dispersion of policy rates remains a key support.