The dollar index jumped to a more than two-year high leaving everyone to ask why. Some say Trump, others the Fed. They might as well have said it was Burger King (who blames Wendy's). Though the dollar is rising here in the short run, to really understand what's going on you have to consider more than just developments in November 2024. This has been in the works for several years. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Reuters US dollar continues uptrend as Fed policy provides lift
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-over-two-month-high-yen-near-150dlr-2024-10-15/

Bloomberg Wall Street Sees Dollar Soaring More, But Splits on How Much
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-12/dollar-s-trump-fueled-rally-unites-wall-street-on-bullish-bets

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After Germany's governing coalition collapsed last week, the country's ZEW added more solid evidence about why that was. The ZEW also collapsed into November. That's not just about Germany since the "zoo" is really what the rest of the world looks like from the German perspective. That also has a lot to say about the ongoing Treasury selloff (just like April).

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

ZEW November 2024
https://www.zew.de/en/press/latest-press-releases/falling-economic-expectations-after-trump-victory

Bloomberg German Investor Confidence Slumps on Political Strife, Trump Win
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-12/german-investor-confidence-slumps-on-political-strife-trump-win

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The economic challenges the incoming Trump administration is facing are far and away greater than those confronted in 2016. From the cyclical standpoint, 2024 has far more in common with 2001. While structurally, there's nothing close to this in generations. Amidst the election euphoria there needs to be sober analysis. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Repo fails jumped by 50% in the latest weekly data, which just so happens to be the same week swap spreads plunged to record lows. It was also when the US economy, at least its labor data, took a turn for the worse. Understanding the connections between all these money and macro indications is critical. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Financial Times New York Fed examines banks’ role in money market turmoil
https://www.ft.com/content/83a5bb70-dbca-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17

FOMC Chair Powell Press Conference Transcript October 2019
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20191030.pdf

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Credit card usage isn't really about spending. Americans use their credit cards when they're confident about jobs and incomes. The latest data from the Fed contains a more serious warning especially how it lines up with jobs and income data...and the Fed's actions. 

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Is there era of massive government "stimulus" finally over? Bonds are certain it is. The Chinese are doing their best to make sure that's the result, in large part because they don't know what to do. That much is becoming clear and the implications are already going global. Just ask anyone with oil.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg China Unveils $1.4 Trillion Debt Swap, Saves Stimulus for Trump
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-08/china-unveils-839-billion-debt-swap-to-rescue-local-governments

Bloomberg China Debt Plan Underwhelms Bond Market Betting on More Stimulus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-08/china-bond-market-eyes-fiscal-plans-from-key-legislative-meeting

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Germany's government is the latest casualty of the "vibecession." Amid a flurry of political activity, the markets throw up another major warning with the first ever negative swap spread. Predictably, the mainstream media can't make sense of swaps, the situation, or the economics. It's the economy, stupid. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Germany’s Government Puts Itself Out of Its Misery
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-07/germany-s-coalition-government-puts-itself-out-of-its-misery

Bloomberg Fear of German Debt Binge Flips Key Market Gauge for First Time
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-07/fear-of-german-debt-binge-flips-key-market-gauge-for-first-time

Bloomberg Scholz Sees Germany Riding Out War in Ukraine Without Recession
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-01-17/german-chancellor-olaf-scholz-on-2023-economic-outlook-war-in-ukraine

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Huge moves, major negatives, and record declines for one of the most critical pieces of the entire global system. While election euphoria has gripped certain financial markets, this one is doing the opposite. It is a key warning about where everything stands before even considering whether or not Trump's victory changes anything. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Demand for gasoil, the basic fuel which runs the entire modern world, is actually declining. Having stumbled over the summer, this exceptionally rare development is another really negative sign to go with, relatedly, even more production and job cuts across the auto industry. Energy, autos, economy. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Diesel Set For Growing Glut as Demand Falters
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-05/diesel-set-for-growing-glut-as-demand-falters

World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/bbda9ad3-4f12-4626-ad4b-94a4d20fbd52/content

Bloomberg OPEC Cuts Global Oil Demand Growth Forecasts for Third Consecutive Month
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-14/opec-cuts-global-oil-demand-growth-forecasts-for-third-consecutive-month

OPEC June 2
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7339.htm

OPEC Sept 5
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7369.htm

OPEC Nov 3
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7409.htm

Bloomberg Even Some High-Income Americans Can’t Afford New Cars Anymore
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-04/soaring-2024-new-car-prices-turn-more-buyers-toward-used-vehicles

Nikkei Nissan cutting production of main U.S. models by 30%
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Nissan-cutting-production-of-main-U.S.-models-by-30

Guru Focus Nissan Cuts Production Amid Declining U.S. Demand, Threatening Global Sales Goals
https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2582356/nissan-cuts-production-amid-declining-us-demand-threatening-global-sales-goals

EuroNews Thousands of jobs to go at German car parts maker Schaeffler
https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/11/05/thousands-of-jobs-to-go-at-german-car-parts-maker-schaeffler

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Why are interest rates rising at one end of the yield at the same time falling on the opposite side? With more recession data coming in all the time, starting with payrolls, it seems as though there should be a uniform response from the marketplace. But that's not how steepening works. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Washington Post
House Passes Bush Tax Cut
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2001/03/09/house-passes-bush-tax-cut/99152799-f156-414f-82c4-bed4fca05bb3/

Time ‘The Worst Is Over’
https://time.com/archive/6917914/the-worst-is-over/

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

October payrolls were exceptionally weak, yet LT rates jump? With more rate cuts from the Fed basically assured, questions swirl around the Treasury selloff having many people wondering if there is a 'Trump trade' going on here. The answers are right there in front of us.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU