Many regulators worry there is the potential for systemic crisis begun by so-called shadow banks. The banks you already know are the last one. In the decade and a half since 2008 the eurodollar world has evolved yet again. The aftermath of that last one opened the door to go back into the shadows. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg US Lays Path for More Financial Giants to Get Fed Oversight
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-03/yellen-lays-path-for-more-financial-giants-to-get-fed-oversight

Bloomberg Shadow Bank Loans From US Lenders Surpass $1 Trillion in Fed Data
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-10/shadow-bank-loans-from-us-lenders-surpass-1-trillion-in-fed-data

IMF Shadow Banks: Out of the Eyes of Regulators
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Back-to-Basics/Shadow-Banks

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The verdict for the Christmas season is in and...not good. Consumers wanted to spend. They tried to spend. They couldn't spend, not what they wanted or retailers needed. Americans simply don't have enough funds and so the downturn marches on. 

Eurodollar University's conversation with Steve Van Metre

Signet Jewelers Announces Holiday Sales Results
https://www.signetjewelers.com/investors/financial-news-releases/financial-news-release/2025/Signet-Jewelers-Announces-Holiday-Sales-Results/default.aspx

Americans Are Spending Less On Streaming Services – Here’s Why
https://9meters.com/entertainment/streaming/americans-are-on-average-spending-less-on-streaming-services-in-2024-compared-to-the-previous-year

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Germany's economy is doing something we've never seen before. Not only did it contract for the second straight year, that's not even the most amazing part. The general pattern it is taking is one that is being repeated all around the world. It's as if the entire global economy stopped growing. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg German Economy Shrinks for Second Year in New Blow to Scholz
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/german-economy-shrinks-for-second-straight-year-before-election

IFO Press Release Germany: Europe's largest economy is facing a third consecutive year of recession
https://www.ifo.de/en/press-release/2024-12-19/headcount-reduction-germany-more-likely-december-2024

Sky News 
https://news.sky.com/story/germany-europes-largest-economy-is-facing-a-third-consecutive-year-of-recession-13289549

Bloomberg ECB Will Keep Easing With Economy Losing Momentum, Guindos Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/ecb-will-keep-easing-with-economy-losing-momentum-guindos-says

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China's money markets have started to come unglued, with serious illiquidity driving up money rates. Despite provoking one of the largest liquidity operations in twenty years from the PBOC yesterday, the disorder came back even worse today. All of this against the backdrop of a currency fight and the prospect China's bank credit problem becomes a full-blown liquidity crisis. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg China's Central Bank Pumps Near-Historic Level of Cash Into Financial System
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/pboc-dials-up-short-term-liquidity-injections-amid-cash-squeeze

Bloomberg China Cash Squeeze Rolls on Even After Central Bank’s Infusions
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-16/china-cash-squeeze-rolls-on-even-after-pboc-liquidity-boosts

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Treasuries exploded on the release of the "inflation" figures for December. Those were rather unremarkable, taken in isolation wouldn't have been able to explain why such a heavy market reaction. There is much more to the CPI and what's going on in the bond market. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Why Some Bond Traders Bet Relentless Selloff Will Soon Lose Steam
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-14/bond-traders-wager-slump-set-to-ease-with-key-cpi-data-ahead

Bloomberg Fed’s Barkin Says CPI Data Show Inflation Headed Toward 2% Goal
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/fed-s-barkin-says-cpi-data-show-inflation-headed-toward-2-goal

Bloomberg Fed Finds New Reason for Confidence in Obscure Inflation Gauge
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-09/fed-finds-new-reason-for-confidence-in-obscure-inflation-gauge

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Russian sanctions triggered more than a surge in oil prices. Financial markets near-panicked bought in near-term futures contracts. While the jump in energy is already being called an huge inflation risk, it isn't even close. On the contrary, oil spikes always end a certain way. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNN Biden admin imposes harsh sanctions on Russian oil industry to cut off funding for Ukraine war effort
https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/10/politics/biden-admin-russia-energy-sanctions-ukraine/index.html

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Not a good day in India to start the week. The rupee’s currency crisis is accelerating. The central bank is burning through reserves at an unsustainable pace. India stocks were crushed, with the main SENSEX index down over a thousand points. Delhi also significantly dialed back its growth estimates while reports came out it is going to massively restate its November imports. Why is all this happening? It's not because of Jay Powell or Donald Trump. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Hindustan Times Stock market today: Sensex and Nifty tanks, rupee hits all-time low
https://www.hindustantimes.com/business/stock-market-crash-sensex-tanks-nearly-700-points-on-open-nifty-down-over-200-101736737599073.html

Bloomberg Deepening India Slowdown Sinks Hope for New Era of 8% Growth
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-08/india-s-deepening-slowdown-dashes-hopes-for-new-era-of-8-growth

Bloomberg India’s Central Bank Said to Ease Rupee Drought With FX Swaps
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-13/india-s-central-bank-said-to-ease-rupee-drought-with-fx-swaps

Business Standard 'If they tax us, we tax them': Trump threatens reciprocal tariffs on India
https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/trump-threatens-reciprocal-tariffs-india-trade-conflict-124121800321_1.html

Bloomberg It May Rain Downgrades This Earnings Season in India
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-13/india-market-buzz-big-money-in-small-companies-looks-tough-now

Bloomberg India Fixing Record Trade Gap After Overstating Gold Imports
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-08/india-fixing-record-trade-deficit-after-overstating-gold-imports

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Another blowout payroll report, way above every expectation. That makes two in a row for the Est. Survey post-election. Plus, a big rebound for the HH Survey. Trump-bump, a sign of a resurgent economy finally shaking off the doldrums of the past year-plus? 

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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China's yuan is hanging by a thread, the closest it has ever been to going over the government limit. Finally, even the mainstream media has caught on this has nothing to do with Jay Powell and the Fed. The bazooka has been utterly exposed. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg PBOC Halts Bond Buying to Defend Yuan as Economic Gloom Worsens
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/pboc-says-it-will-temporarily-halt-buying-of-government-bonds

Bloomberg China’s Market Support Falls Short as Economic Gloom Deepens
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/china-s-market-support-falls-short-as-economic-gloom-deepens

Bloomberg China Ramps Up Yuan Support With Record Hong Kong Bill Issuance
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-09/pboc-taps-record-bill-issuance-in-hong-kong-to-support-yuan

Bloomberg Yuan Short Sellers Squeezed by Soaring Hong Kong Funding Costs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-07/offshore-yuan-borrowing-costs-surge-as-currency-support-in-focus

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Credit card balances crashed in November, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. That's a major warning but not about spending. With such a negative signal instead relating to jobs and the labor market, why the hell are LT rates...rising? The answer to the question can be found in Canada and Germany. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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And now for some layoffs to go with the ongoing alarming drop in hiring. More strong evidence the labor market in the US is on the edge of the Beveridge cliff. It may not actually be a cliff in the literal sense, yet all the data points to the economy being at that point...if not already past it.  

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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