There's more to the Brazil story, especially since Brazil's story isn't strictly about Brazil. With markets there spiraling into chaos, the government is down to blaming 'speculators.' If that's the case, then speculation has gone global in a lot of critical ways. From currencies to job findings plunging, even something real like the Baltic Dry which is crashing now, too. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Brazil Central Bank Rejects Doubts Over Power of Monetary Policy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-19/brazil-central-bank-rejects-doubts-over-monetary-policy

Bloomberg Brazil Traders ‘Sell First, Ask Later’ as Panic Hits Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-17/brazil-traders-sell-first-ask-later-as-panic-sweeps-markets

FT Warren Buffett's record cash pile is starting to make people nervous
https://financialpost.com/financial-times/warren-buffett-cash-pile-investors-nervous

Bloomberg Brazil Finance Chief Says Real May Be Under ‘Speculative Attack’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-18/brazil-finance-chief-says-real-may-be-under-speculative-attack

Bloomberg Brazil Spends $17 Billion in Reserves to Lift Cratering Real
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-20/central-bank-burns-17-billion-in-reserves-to-lift-brazil-s-real

Bloomberg Brazil’s Wealthy Lament Political Dysfunction as Fortunes Tumble
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-20/brazil-s-richest-people-lament-political-dysfunction-as-fortunes-tumble

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While everyone is hanging on the Fed and the FOMC's indecision about how many rate cuts next year, there are currency crises - plural - beginning to break out in key places. One of those is Brazil where it has gotten so dangerous the country's central bank is now regularly intervening in FX spot markets. What's really going on here? The black hole is angry.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Stocks tanked, bond yields soared, the dollar jumped. All because the Fed doesn't know what it's going to do now? Partly, yeah. There's a lot more to the story, however. Given the tortuous road to rate cuts, it wasn't suddenly going to become smooth sailing now that they've started. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Canada. France. Germany. What do they have in common? Central banks in each are cutting rates. Also, their governments have either collapsed or, Canada, about to. Why? Same reason there are rate cuts. It's not ideology nor really partisanship. It's the economy, stupid. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNBC Canada finance minister quits after clash with Trudeau, deals blow to government
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/16/canada-finance-minister-quits-after-clash-with-trudeau-deals-blow-to-government-.html

Toronto Sun Trudeau says economy is great, Canadians can see truth
https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/trudeau-says-economy-is-great-canadians-can-see-truth

Bloomberg French Growth Prospects Slow as Political Uncertainty Weighs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-16/france-s-growth-prospects-weaken-as-political-uncertainty-weighs
CNBC France’s new prime minister gets a baptism of fire after surprise Moody’s downgrade
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/16/frances-new-prime-minister-installed-hours-before-moodys-downgrade.html

NYT German Government Collapses at a Perilous Time for Europe
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/world/europe/germany-confidence-vote-scholz-snap-election.html

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Interest rates worldwide are hanging at the edge of a cliff. It may not seem like it from the current focus on the Fed and the possible pause in its rate cutting. This doesn't mean other central bank rate cuts, either. Instead, two very critical signals have absolutely plunged just in the past few days. Record lows in both are far more relevant than Jay Powell. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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The dollar continues to threaten to make a big move higher. Not only is the main dollar index right at the top end of its multi-year range, the buck is creating big problems for major currencies. The more other central banks or authorities struggle to contain the fallout, the greater the chance for that breakout.  

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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Update on T-bills. Last week's wild auctions repeated this week, only with flipped maturities. Other related data confirm the sharp demand as well as dealer participation in it. We discuss the implications plus dig into the reason why collateral is so important to begin with, and also why we don't know nearly enough about what's going on. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

WEBINAR REPLAY, w/SPECIAL GUEST JIM RICKARDS
https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/26/7y53nc7mb44azzaw

FRBNY Primary Dealer Statistics
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/counterparties/primary-dealers-statistics

IOSCO Securities Lending Transactions: Market Development and Implications
https://www.iosco.org/library/pubdocs/pdf/IOSCOPD96.pdf

OFR Why Is So Much Repo Not Centrally Cleared?
https://www.financialresearch.gov/briefs/files/OFRBrief_23-01_Why-Is-So-Much-Repo-Not-Centrally-Cleared.pdf

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Swiss shock - again. Now fearing outright deflation and over the next six months, SNB pulls the trigger on a fifty. Back in March, amidst the "sticky" "inflation" freakout, when the SNB was the first central bank to begin cutting rates it was a warning to other central bankers and the rest of the world what was coming wasn't more "inflation." OPEC concurs. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

WEBINAR REPLAY, w/SPECIAL GUEST JIM RICKARDS
https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/26/7y53nc7mb44azzaw

SNB policy statement
https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20241212

CNBC Swiss National Bank takes leap with 50-basis-point interest rate cut amid franc strength
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/swiss-national-bank-takes-leap-with-50-basis-point-interest-rate-cut-amid-franc-strength.html

Chair Jerome H. Powell 
At the "Conference on Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communications Practices" sponsored by the Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20190604a.htm

Bloomberg Franc Drop Seen Short-Lived With SNB Running Out of Room to Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-12/swiss-franc-falls-to-two-week-low-affter-half-point-snb-rate-cut

Bloomberg OPEC Makes Deepest Cut Yet to 2024 World Oil Demand Forecast
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-11/opec-makes-deepest-cut-yet-to-2024-world-oil-demand-forecast

CNBC OPEC+ oil output delay a ‘reality check’ as group eyes demand, U.S. outlook, Saudi energy min says
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/06/opec-oil-output-delay-a-reality-check-as-group-eyes-demand-saudi.html

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Here comes Chinese central bank bond buying, but this is no QE. A report surfaced in China Daily strongly implying the Chinese government is beyond just exploring something called money-financed fiscal expansion. We'll go over what that is, how it is different from QE, and what the real takeaway is. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

China Daily Unconventional monetary steps eyed
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202412/11/WS6758cfcca310f1265a1d2293.html

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Canada's official unemployment rate jumped in November, reaching its highest level since 2016 (outside 2020). And that was only the beginning. Given how highly synchronized US Treasury rates are with Canadian government bonds, not to mention the Fed and the Bank of Canada, we expect a lot of similarities in the real economy. This one is getting to be uncomfortably close. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Webinar w/Jim Rickards, Wednesday Dec 11 at 6:30pm ET. Sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml

Yahoo!finance Canada's interest rates will likely fall. Where will they end up?
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadas-interest-rates-will-likely-fall-where-will-they-end-up-150459864.html

CBC Jobless rate reaches 6.8% in November, highest since 2017, excluding pandemic
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jobs-unemployment-november-1.7403156

Bloomberg Canada Jobless Rate Jumps to 6.8%, Raising Odds of Big Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-06/canada-jobless-rate-jumps-to-6-8-raising-odds-of-big-cut

Financial Post Canada's unemployment rate rises to 6.8%, raising odds of jumbo interest rate cut
https://financialpost.com/news/economy/canadas-unemployment-rate-rises-to-6-8

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China's top government body, the politburo, attempted to reignite the "stimulus" sentiment with another wordy communication chock full of more promises and platitudes. To begin with, this doesn't bode very well for the "bazooka." Global market reaction wasn't what Beijing was looking for, either. Even stocks and Economists. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Webinar w/Jim Rickards, Wednesday Dec 11 at 6:30pm ET. Sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml

SCMP China’s consumer inflation hits 5-month low, leaves room for more stimulus
https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3289917/chinas-consumer-inflation-falls-short-november-factory-price-drag-continues

Bloomberg China Signals Bolder Stimulus for Next Year as Trump Returns
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-09/china-shifts-monetary-policy-stance-for-first-time-since-2011

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