The dry cargo market had a strong start to the year as more bulk carriers rerouted away from the Suez Canal, port congestion in China increased and higher than expected Brazilian iron ore exports all pushed up tonne-mile demand. And of course the lowest level of bulk carrier fleet growth for almost a decade has also been a pretty significant contributing factor in tightening vessel supply, all of which is making for an interesting market right now for those in the dry bulk space. In this edition of our mini-series of market outlook podcasts, Lloyd’s List’s market’s editor Rob Willmington talks to Bimco’s chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen about the dry cargo market prospects for the rest of the year and beyond.

The Container lines have begun reporting their first-quarter results, and there are strong improvements on the previous quarter. But that ground has been gained on the back of disruptions to sailings through the Red Sea, which has soaked up capacity and forced rates up, improving earnings but increasing costs for shipping lines. For now, that looks set to continue but with a glut of new capacity still coming out of the yards, concerns remain that even rerouting won’t absorb it all. The Red Sea rerouting has favoured the bold in the sense that those playing the spot market have reaped the full scale benefits on offer. Spot market rates jumped by 200% in the first quarter, but the longer term contracts are not reflecting the “crazy” market. Right now though, everyone is preparing themselves for the high season and the big question is what the third quarter will bring. We have seen a record high filling factor, so if the fleet is really that fully utilised, how many more ships do we need? Will we see a continued drop in spot rates not reflected in long terms and how will the power dynamics of the market play out over the coming weeks and months? To guide you through the current state of affairs in the market and the outlook for the quarters ahead, Lloyd’s List’s containers editor James Baker leads this edition of the outlook podcast series, joined by Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand

Geopolitical disruptions, wars, sanctions, OPEC+ production cuts and even the weather have all added tonne-mile demand at a point when fleet growth is at a record low. We are living through something of a golden age of tankers right now and certainly nobody is expecting anything particularly untoward to hit the positive sentiment until at least 2026. Beyond that though things get interesting and what’s happening now in terms of tanker orders flooding in will ultimate determine whether 2027 is a downward swing or a crash. Because, while things are admittedly looking pretty rosy right now for the energy shipping markets, the risks are far from removed. If the fleet supply inefficiencies caused by the redirection of Russian oil exports away from Europe, primarily east of Suez, were to suddenly evaporate we would be looking at a very different picture. The wider market remains delicately poised with positive and negative drivers so far largely offsetting one another And let’s not forget OPEC. The cartel has installed production cuts since November 2022 to artificially buoy oil prices. Analysts estimate Opec+ has about 6mn b/d of spare capacity it can unleash on to global markets to lower prices if they spike into the triple digits to prevent demand destruction. To guide you through the current state of affairs in the tanker sector Andrew Wilson, Head of Research and Consultancy Services at BRS shipbrokers talks to Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief Richard Meade.

This podcast is brought to you in association with LISCR, the Liberian International Ship and Corporate Registry PORT state control (PSC) has reduced accidents and improved safety on board ships, but there is a lot of room for improvement in how PSC inspections are carried out and their outcomes reported, believes Alfonso Castillero, CEO of the Liberian International Ship and Corporate Registry (LISCR). In this podcast, he says there is a lack of uniformity in the qualifications and performance of PSC inspectors across the globe and expresses concern that “there is no clarity” over how vessels are inspected. He is also critical of how defects are recorded and dealt with, causing adverse impacts on shipowners and other stakeholders associated with a ship. During the podcast, he stresses that LISCR has good cooperation with PSC regimes around the world and says that there are many excellent PSC officers but, nonetheless, he finds that there are “different interpretations of the rules” in the various port state control areas that a vessel might visit during a voyage. “There is a lot of room for improvement,” he said, and he believes that many others share his concerns but that they “prefer to stay quiet” to avoid “friction points with port state control”. He took the opportunity to explain why a single ship might receive different outcomes in different PSC regimes, with factors including the background, experience and qualifications of individual inspectors, leading to different deficiencies being found and differing interpretations of the seriousness of those deficiencies. In particular, he highlighted differences between how deficiencies that require action to be taken are categorised. IMO’s publication Procedures for Port State Control identifies a number of ‘code’ numbers that can be noted on an inspection report as shorthand to indicate the required response, and Mr Castillero is particularly vocal about two of them: ‘Code 17’, which identifies deficiencies that need to be addressed before a ship can depart from a port, and ‘Code 30’, which highlights deficiencies that require a ship to be detained. Both have the same effect in practice, he said, but a Code 30 detention creates an adverse record not only for the ship, but also its owner, flag, class society and others, he says in the podcast. He goes on to suggest some solutions to the problems he has identified, setting out some proposals about how the international cooperation that would be required could be coordinated. The benefits would be significant, he believes, not least for crews who have to navigate the various PSC regimes and their inspection procedures. He also believes that LISCR’s size puts it in a position “to initiate a conversation with port state and flag state control to find a possible point of understanding” to start the discussion that would be needed to achieve this cooperation. “The Liberian registry has been globally recognised for taking the initiative,” he said.

In this pivotal year of global elections where the power blocs are squaring up to each other over trade, macroeconomic circumstance has thrust shipping into the limelight. Shipping has a window of opportunity to insert itself at the heart of the big political discussions by reminding politicians of the central role that national fleets and maritime sectors play in keeping economies and trade afloat. From supply chain vulnerabilities to energy security, government and the general public at large have never been more aware of the intrinsic role that shipping plays in its daily lives. Trade is still coupled with economic growth in Europe and the influence of European shipping on the supply chain needs to be taken into account. There is an opportunity to position shipping more centrally in whatever flavour of European politics emerges triumphant this summer. But is this industry ready and prepared to capitalise on its visibility by having a grown-up conversation with policymakers and regulators? The jury is out. Joining Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief this week to discuss whether we are having the right conversations in European shipping are: • Magda Kopczyńska the director general for the European Commission’s DG Move – the directorate of Mobility and Transport • Sotiris Raptis, secretary general of the European Community Shipowners’ association

Shipping is getting increasingly more complex and more expensive. On balance, that could be a good thing in that it forces the hand of an industry that has been too cheap for too long and the direction of regulatory travel now at least favours the progressives over the laggards. But we don’t know the detail. We don’t know what fuel availability or costs looks like. We don’t know the detail of what market based mechanism or fuel standard will emerge – or even if it will. We don’t know when ships ordered today are realistically going to be filling their duel-fuelled tanks with which fuels at what price. And that makes decisions today about newbuildings difficult. Difficult, but not impossible. It is possible to make the least worst decisions and factor in sufficient flexibility to be reasonably sure that the order you place today is not going to be a stranded asset in the next decade. And yet large swathes of the industry seem to be using the energy transition as an excuse for inaction. So this week’s edition of the podcast offers all the hesitant fence sitters out there a much needed dose of persuasive expertise advocating for fully risk-assessed progressive change. James Frew is a Business Consultancy Director at Lloyd's Register who has spent a lot of time advising clients on how to make the decision that comes with least regrets when it comes to newbuilding and optimisation. In this week’s edition Frew sits down with Lloyd’s List editor Richard Meade to discuss: • How newbuilding and retrofit decisions can be optimised with sufficient flexibility to sail through regulatory and fuel uncertainties while avoiding the risk of stranded assets • Why increasing complexities around fuel procurement will not favour the smaller tramp owners • Why e-fuels are an inevitable part of shipping’s transition and many ships will have to factor in multiple fuel choices over the coming years

LAST July Ukraine’s deep sea maritime trade dried up with the collapse of the Black Sea Initiative. Within days Ukraine put forward a proposal to the UN detailing a route that would see ships sailing through Romanian waters to reach the greater Odesa ports. In August Ukraine announced the opening of a “humanitarian” corridor, pitching the route as a way to evacuate stranded ships. The initial departures were indeed stuck ships, but in September the first vessels started to arrive from foreign markets and this so-called “new” Black Sea corridor was officially open for business. Since then over 1000 ships have exported nearly 30m tonnes from Ukraine, helping to fuel the country’s wartime economy and getting large quantities of desperately needed grain back on the market. In February NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg attributed the opening of the corridor to Ukraine’s armed forces who have been remarkably successful at pushing Russia’s Black Sea fleet further away from its coasts. “Few believed this was possible just a few months ago”, he said. “But now actually, the export of grain from Ukraine takes place even without an agreement with Russia. So this shows the skills and the competence of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.” Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has reinforced the importance of the country’s military in the functioning of the corridor and has warned that Ukraine will struggle to defend the route without additional military aid from the US. While the US announced an additional package for Ukraine worth up to $300m earlier this week, the Department of Defense’s supplemental request which includes roughly $60 billion in military aid is still yet to be passed by congress. Talking on the podcast this week: I.R. Consilium CEO, Ian Ralby Head of sanctions advisory at Lloyd's of London, Chris Po-Ba Bosphorus Observer's geopolitical analyst, Yörük Işik Senior associate at Black Sea Associates, Callum Thomson

On International Women’s Day, Stephanie Zank tells Lloyd’s List her story about being a trailblazer in the world of shipping As a girl growing up in Australian in the 1980s Stephanie Zank hated office jobs and loved taking things apart and putting them back together. When she first stepped on board a ship, she knew that this was the career she wanted. But her story isn’t one that we’re normally being told on International Women’s Day. Stephanie Zank battled prejudice and abuse from her cadetship and throughout her maritime career that ended in 2014 when she was diagnosed with muscular dystrophy. Her story is one that’s normally stays untold or swept under the carpet but occasionally it bubbles to the surface, like the story of Hope Hicks, better known as midshipman X, in 2022. “A lot of crew members would make comments, such as ‘you're stealing men's jobs’, which was a fairly common one or ‘I hate you because you're a woman taking a man's job’, but more importantly, I hate you because you're small,” she told Lloyd’s List. She recounted two incidents when she was sexually harassed and sexually assaulted and the lack of support and policies in place to deal with such events. It’s right that Stephanie’s story is told on International Women’s Day, so that despite the platitudes from many in the maritime world about the progress that’s been made, we remember how far we have yet to go to ensure an equitable and fair workplace exists for all.

TUESDAY this week marked P&I renewal day. That’s the name given to the annual hard deadline for the 90% of the world fleet by tonnage entered with International Group P&I clubs to renew their liability insurance for the following year. Historically, the date was considered the first on which Baltic ports were sufficiently ice free to be navigable. That looks rather quaint in these days of global warning. But 20 February is now hallowed by tradition, and doing things on 1 January like everybody else would just be boring. So this week, as is now tradition, we are dedicating the podcast to examining the fallout from the annual P&I renewals. In 2024, things have been rather quiet by previous standards, as it goes. No major fleets are thought to have changed hands in search of better insurance deals. The number of owners opting to do so has been in decline for some time. Clubs actively disincentivise such behaviour with a mechanism known as release calls. In plain English, that’s a penalty imposed for switching. Premium increases were modest. Clubs were officially looking for general or target increases in the 5% to 7.5% range. But those headline rate hikes should be seen as opening bids in negotiations with brokers. In practice, most deals were settled at about two-thirds of that. We recorded this podcast on the afternoon of Thursday 22nd February, by which point several clubs had made preliminary announcements about how well they have done. Five said that had gained tonnage. To name check them, they were Gard, NorthStandard, Skuld, West of England and Steamship Mutual. As subscribers know, Lloyd’s List offers readers easily the best marine insurance coverage available anywhere, and naturally we asked insurance editor David Osler to round up a cross-selection of the P&I people to discuss the latest developments. Speaking on this year’s P&I round up: Alex Vullo, to divisional director of Gallagher’s P&I practice Anna Vourgos, a director of Cyprus-based Aphentrica, William Beveridge, chief underwriting officer of the UK Club.

THE shipping industry has a problem that it doesn’t like to talk about. A dark secret. Safety standards, by and large, have been steadily improving over recent decades. Ship casualties and incidents reached an all-time low, in spite of a global pandemic and a steady tightening of regulatory standards have raised the bar across the board. But there is a significant and growing fleet of ships to which none of this applies. An unprecedented deluge of sanctions has divided the industry between those operating within the established rules-based order of safety conventions, class, insurance and international oversight, versus a worryingly large section of the fleet that has disappeared off the radar. The serious and significant safety threat that the dark fleet poses has been well documented, not least by Lloyd’s List. But the ships themselves are only part of the problem. There is a whole infrastructure that is supporting this return to opacity at the bottom of the industry. This is not simply another sanctions story. Fraudulently flagged ships are hopping effortlessly between registries unable or unwilling to tackle their lawless flouting of the established rules-based order. These are vessels that in some cases make the Dark Fleet look like law abiding citizens by comparison - often with no flag, no insurance and an impenetrable nexus of state-sponsored opacity readily supporting their illicit movements behind the scenes. These ships do not operate in isolation – they only exist and are able to trade because they are able to operate with a combination of direct support and tacit complicity from companies, institutions and governments willing to turn a blind eye. The support networks are complex and opaque, but at the top of it all there are governments failing to provide meaningful oversight of ships flying their flag. And that’s where the podcast this focussed its attention. The Safety standards at the top of the industry have largely improved, but the worst bits of shipping are getting worse, and that is a serious problem for everyone. Talking on the podcast this week: • RightShip chief executive chief executive, Steen Brodsgaard Lund • International Chamber of Shipping secretary general, Guy Platten

Why has the marine insurance industry forgotten about Cynthia Mockett? That is the question at the heart of this week’s edition of the Lloyd’s List Podcast. The widow of a UK marine surveyor and consultant murdered in Yemen 13 years ago in one of the biggest marine insurance frauds in Lloyd’s of London history is still fighting for compensation, as well as payment for the work that led to his death. Cynthia Mockett, based in Plymouth, England, was the wife of Capt David Mockett, based in Aden, Yemen, until his death in July 2011, when a bomb placed in his car exploded. Days earlier, Capt Mockett had inspected the 1992--built suezmax Brillante Virtuoso (IMO: 9014822), owned by Marios Iliopoulos, in waters outside Aden, after the suezmax tanker was set ablaze in a fake piracy attack. The financially troubled owner owed $80m in loans taken out against the vessel which was worth $13.5m, court evidence showed. Capt Mockett had raised doubts the fire was caused by pirates, with a UK coroner later finding his death was unlawful with evidence from a UK diplomat that the bombing was related to the insurance fraud. London-based Noble Denton, on behalf of Talbot AIS, the lead hull underwriter, contracted Capt Mockett. Ms Mockett told Lloyd’s List Noble Denton never got in touch after her husband’s death nor paid for his work on the Brillante Virtuoso. Talbot contacted her for the first time this month, nearly 13 years later, to apologise, and send condolences. A high-profile High Court case found in 2019 that the shipowner orchestrated a complex conspiracy along with crew, the Aden-based salvor and Yemen coast guard to fraudulently organize a fake piracy attack, then claim for the vessel’s loss. The probable murder of Capt Mockett was part of conspiracy, the judge found. Previous correspondence to Talblot AIS from Mrs Mockett went unanswered and she did not hear back from anybody until last week, when the company’s chief executive Chris Rash called. “The longest conversation I've had with Talbots has been in the last few days when Chris Rash has phoned me up,” said Mrs Mockett. “Nobody came to see me (at the time) and nobody has phoned me up and nobody has mentioned compensation, nothing. “When David died, everything died with him and his paypacket, and his pension disappeared. I've had nothing.” Mrs Mockett’s local MP, Sir Gary Streeter is one of a small group of people who has helped for nearly a decade in her fight for compensation and justice. There have been no charges laid against any of those involved in the Brillante Virtuoso case. The High Court judgement on the Brillante Virtuoso case can be read here: https://7kbw.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/BRILLANTE-VIRTUOSO-High-Court-Judgment.pdf