Venture Capital Wisdom, Perspective and Recommendations
UNICORN MANIA, The Real Facts About Post-Money Valuation
Post-Money Valuation; The Facts
A Unicorn Index Fund is a Sham
Given the above facts, the concept of a Unicorn Index, then, is a sham based on this faulty method of valuation. The indexes, in fact, do not have visibility into the requisite information and data actually needed to return a market value or market capitalization (i.e., financial statements). That´s why they use the inappropriate and discredited PM Valuation and then try to sell it to you as some rigorous and proprietary methodology. Complete BS.
The idea that index funds, the financial press, and the analytics companies have been trying, for years now, to use this as a representation of value is insane and it’s fraudulent.
Btw, Why would anyone invest in an index fund that can´t provide investors with a true picture of value? Any index fund should be required, and investors should demand, full disclosure of the valuation methodology. One would think disclosing your valuation methodology would be a strength, a positive, to show investors you do have rigor in your analysis and determination of value. Transparency should be an asset. Instead, these so-called index funds use stealth because they don´t want you to know that they don´t really have visibility and the tools normally utilized to actually determine real market value for these private tech firms.
Why the secrecy and black-box approach if the index funds are asking investors to pony-up vast sums of money to get exposure to private tech company deals?
The risks of a private, early-stage technology company are already significantly high enough; and their performance is not proven nor is it disclosed. To gain exposure to this high-risk asset category via an index fund with a completely improper, bogus notion of value is insane.
Stay Far Away from any Index of Unicorns
So, let´s understand what is really going on here. The facts are these regarding any index comprised of so-called Unicorn tech companies. They possess none of the following key pieces of financial statement information necessary and normally used to properly value a firm:
Each of the above financial metrics would normally be used to value a firm and measure its financial health and trajectory. These so-called index funds do not have access to any of this information and therefore operate in a vacuum when it comes to relying on real financial metrics normally used to value a company.
Investors should be informed as to just how flimsy and flawed these valuations are based on the PM Valuation. The Stanford Study conclusively proves there is a serious problem with the PM Valuation methodology. Further, the Study has developed a methodology that works and clearly demonstrates how to calculate a value for these private tech firms.
Tech Unicorn Valuations are Fake
Introduction
Hello everyone – it´s been a couple of months since my last podcast episode – I took some time off...It´s great to be back with you again.
After some thought, consideration and a couple defining events, and an announcement by Pitchbook, one of the so called data analytics firms in the VC space, I decided it was imperative that I do an episode in my Unicorn Mania series. I´ll fill you in on the PB announcement I am referring to in a moment – it´s insane!
Before we jump into the episode though, I wanted to pay recognition and acknowledgement to a wonderful Brazilian singer and artist, Gal Costa. My intro music and exit music is Aquarela do Brasil by Gal Costa. Gal Costa passed away on Nov. 9, 2021. A makpr talent in Brazil, I thoroughly enjoyed her music. She will be missed.
So, let´s jump into this edition of Unicorn Mania:
If you´ve followed this podcast in the past, you are aware that in the UnicornMania series I highlight the largely fake, deceptive valuations of VC-backed private technology companies – Which are Fondly called Unicorns...Isn´t that cute?
For background, I refer you to my first episode in the UnicornMania series, March of 2020. Episodes 5 and 6 also deal with this twisted freak show perpetrated by VCs, the tech & financial press and others that engage in all of this Unicorn nonsense. I encourage you to go back to Episode 1 for insights and valuable background information as to why I categorically state and prove that tech Unicorns, a VC-backed tech company allegedly with a $1B or more valuation, are indeed mostly fake…
Let´s start off with some levity and have a little fun, shall we, at the expense of Sil. Valley VCs? I read this a couple years ago in a CrunchBase piece;
There´s an old joke about a new bar in Sil. Valley. On opening day, 6,000 people showed up. No one buys a drink. The business is declared a roaring success! [This joke will hopefully make perfect sense by the time we finish this episode. Only in SV culture would the above be considered a success! In Sil. Valley, comedy often becomes reality
To briefly review, let´s start with some basics I will get into in this episode:
Squaring Venture Capital Valuations with Reality
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2955455
Video presentation to the Silicon Valley Open Doors conf., 2016
Why a return to this topic? Several reasons;
That is Morningstar, the venerable, well-known mutual fund rating company founded in 1984. Its star rating system has been considered the gold std in rating mutual funds, ETFs, etc., for years…
B/C an index that begins with garbage valuations, yields garbage! I will get into that and demonstrate how this alleged index fund is deceiving to investors and should be scrapped immediately…IMO
Why do I bring up this event? B/C prior to its collapse, FTX would have surely been, no doubt, a part of this bogus index fund. [Just like Wework before, only a couple years ago. Remember them?] WeWork was valued at $47B before pulling its IPO around Sept. 2019 when many entities called BS on its S-1 filing. I devote all of Episode 6 (Aug. 5, 2020) to exposing the Wework fraud and breaking down their bus. model – something, unfortunately, Firms like Pitchbook, CB Insights and the tech press failed to do;
In fact, they continuously published fawning articles prior to Wework´s collapse and implosion, slobbering all over themselves about WeWork´s amazing valuation ($47B)! And now, they want you to trust them with an index of Unicorns based on fake valuations – right! That´s messed up, IMHO.
So, let´s get into this PB announcement, shall we?
Whitepaper Takeaways: It´s a complete mishmash of deceptive jargon, in my view;
There is no daily determination of value like in most all mutual funds and ETFs! And Morningstar knows this!
The terms and conditions of these priv. preferred stock financings are not reported to the public and there is no correlation whatsoever to US public markets – there is no repricing daily based on this information.
• This is nothing more than a fake, window-dressing comment to give the false impression that there is some rigorous analysis going on and is correlated to public markets –
Prime Unicorn Index
BTW, in preparing this episode, I discovered there is already an existing Unicorn Index Fund, created in 2017, called Prime Unicorn Index.
On their website they describe it as, ``A modified market cap price return index that measures the share price performance of private companies valued at $1B or more….
I take issue with the term, ``market cap return`` It is not the market cap. Prime reveals that they also use the flawed post-money valuation as one of the factors in calculating value – but the don´t say so on their website!
[Dig into the key highlights and takeaways of the Stanford/Strebulaev Report]
Conclusions
I´ve seen what I would characterize as three major frauds during my professional lifetime where the major institutional entities that we normally rely on to provide us with independent, unbiased assessments and analysis, were all compromised:
I view Unicorn Mania as, perhaps, just another iteration or vector of the dotcom bubble only with a different twist or flavor. In the dotcom fraud, it was the I-Banks peddling nonsense and hype, unsupported by company fundamentals.
In the Tech Unicorn fraud, the complicit entities are the VCs, tech press, financial press and perhaps accounting firms. They Used a black-box approach, protected by non-public reporting of financial transactions (i.e. Pref. Stock rounds with unique, exotic, and complicated structures). They then peddled a completely useless and inappropriate notion of value via the post-money valuation. This is fraud IMO.
Again, the research supports this conclusion… And this one is inexcusable b/c the hard data and research exists. It is being ignored.
Introduction
Episode Introduction:
He also leverages various degrees from the University of Southern California, London School of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.
Topic Areas Covered with Jonathan
Closing Remarks:
Jonathan, thank you very much for joining me today on the program…
Jonathan, how can those who are interested in learning more about you and your practice in So. California get in touch?
Contact Information
Thank you for joining me for this edition of DVC. I hope you found today’s discussion with Jonathan Hung interesting and it gave you some additional insights into the state of angel investing in So. California and beyond.
Stay tuned for my next Episode of DVC…thank you.
Introduction
Episode Introduction:
Alex Branton Bio: Over a decade of investment industry experience with a blend of direct investment experience and fundraising expertise. Studied, lived and worked in emerging markets (most significantly China and Central Asia) on and off for 15 years. Whilst maintaining a vital role on the investment team, spends significant time working with companies on their fundraising and strategic partnerships. Before Sturgeon, part of a 4-person team, that helped build a tech-focused asset manager called Columbus Point with the co-founder of Cantillon in the capacity of head of business development, raising approximately $200m, building the operational infrastructure and working with the investment team. Prior to this, was an Associate Investment Director at Cambridge Associates working in the emerging markets team, advising on direct co-investment deals, economic consulting, financial modelling, and portfolio advisory and discretionary management. Alex holds a BA in Industrial Economics from the University of Nottingham (during which time he also spent time studying finance at Hong Kong University) and an MSc in Development (specialism in Development Economics) from the London School of Economics. He is also a chartered alternative investment analyst (CAIA) and is fluent in Mandarin Chinese having studied in a post-graduate in Shanghai and has taken R programming courses at UCL.
Closing Remarks:
Alex, how can those that are interested in learning more contact you or the Company?
Contact Information
Alex, thank you very much for joining me today on the program…It would be great to do a follow-up some time to get an update…And, if you and Kiyan want to have a conversation sometime about Brasil, I am all over the Brasil Fintech and DeFi sectors, so would love to do that.
Thank you for joining me for this edition of DVC. I hope you found today’s discussion with Alex Brandon and Sturgeon Capital interesting. If you’re looking for alpha, and who isn´t, and you hadn´t thought of Central Asia, Sturgeon Capital is the go-to Fund with the regional expertise and successful track record. Stay tuned for my next Episode of DVC…thank you.
Introduction
Episode Introduction:
Topic Areas Covered
Closing Remarks
Thank you for joining me for this edition of DVC. I hope you found our discussion today with João Zecchin and Fuse Capital interesting and it gave you new insights about how the venture capital and venture debt landscape is evolving in Brazil. I look forward to joining you on my next edition of DVC. Thank You…
Introduction
We will start here -
Episode Introduction:
Topic Areas Covered with Slater Victoroff
Closing Remarks
Thank you for joining me for this edition of DVC. I hope you found our discussion today with Slater Victoroff and Indico interesting and it gave you new insights and things to think about regarding machine learning, AI and its application to unstructured data. I look forward to joining you on my next edition of DVC. Thank You…
Introduction
We will start here -
Episode Introduction:
Topic Areas Covered with Jeremy Neilson
Jeremy, in addition to Assure and its services I´d love to hear your thoughts and remarks on other topics in the VC and priv. investment landscape in general if you are open to opining on them;
Closing Remarks
Thank you for joining me for this edition of DVC. I hope you found our discussion today with Jeremy Neilson and Assure interesting and it gave you insights into SPVs, fund administration services and their importance in the marketplace to VCs and private equity. I look forward to joining you on my next edition of DVC. Thank You…
Episode Introduction:
Topic Areas to be covered
After introduction and you provide your background, I´d like to get into the following…
Closing Remarks
Thank you for joining me for this edition of DVC. I hope you found our discussion today with Jim Bianco interesting and it gave you better insights into what DeFi is really all about and what it means for the future of finance globally. I look forward to joining you on my next edition of DVC. Thank You…
Introduction
Episode Introduction:
Topic Areas Covered:
Closing Remarks
Thank you for joining me for this edition of DVC. I hope you found our discussion today with James Giancotti and Oddup interesting and it gave you things to think about regarding your ability to evaluate, analyze and invest in new economy companies. I look forward to joining you on my next edition of DVC, Thank You…
Bio:
James Giancotti, CEO and Co-founder OddupJames Giancotti is the founder and CEO of Oddup, an early-stage startup ecosystem rating system. James began his career in investment banking and research roles at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan. After nearly a decade of researching companies’ financials to determine their value and assessing investment risks and opportunities, he saw firsthand the challenges that most institutional investors constantly confronted. The biggest obstacle was a lack of reliable, collated analyst insights that overcome subjectivity, so he created Oddup to address this problem by giving investors more transparency and objective insights to make the most informed investment decision.
James holds both a Bachelor of Commerce in Business Intelligence and a Bachelor of Law in Intellectual Property from La Trobe University.
Introduction
Welcome to Distilling Venture Capital. I am your host, Bill Griesinger
Distilling VC is a visionary podcast that provides an insightful and informed view of the key trends affecting the VC and tech startup world. My mission is to cut through and go beyond the hype that tends to dominate the tech landscape. And provide you with information you can use.
Episode Introduction:
Closing Remarks
Thank you for joining me for this edition of DVC. I hope you found our discussion today with Tigran Nazaryan and 10Web interesting and it gave you things to think about regarding how you go about building and creating high-quality websites in the future. I look forward to joining you on my next edition of DVC, Thank You…
Introduction
Welcome to Distilling Venture Capital. I am your host, Bill Griesinger
Distilling VC is a visionary podcast that provides an insightful and informed view of the key trends affecting the VC and tech startup world. My mission is to cut through and go beyond the hype that tends to dominate the tech landscape. And provide you with information you can use.
Episode Introduction:
Closing Remarks
Thank you for joining me for this edition of DVC. I hope you found our discussion today with John Zic and EQUIAM interesting and it gave you things to think about regarding your ability to invest in a fund of private tech companies. I look forward to joining you on my next edition of DVC, Thank You…
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