Kicking off the MegaCap Earnings – some concerning items.

Rate Cut Bets Fizzle

Yields Keep Rising

The VIX – Hovering around 16

And our Guest – Johns Williams from ShadowStats

John Williams, founder and publisher of ShadowStats.com.   He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College, and an M.B.A. from Dartmouth‘s Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar.   During his career as a consulting economist in the last 33 years, he has worked with individuals as well with as Fortune 500 companies.

Out of necessity, he became a specialist in government economic reporting.   An early client’s large manufacturer of commercial airplanes had developed a model for predicting revenue passenger miles, a primary sales forecasting tool.   Heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) out of the Department of Commerce, the model suddenly stopped working, and the client asked Williams to fix it.   The GNP numbers were faulty, he corrected them (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later), and the model worked again, at least for a while, until changes in GNP methodology eventually made the underlying data worthless.

That began a lengthy process exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and interviewing key people involved in the system from the early days of government reporting through the present.   For a number of years, he conducted surveys among business economists as to the quality of government statistics.   The vast majority thought it was pretty bad, with survey results leading to 1989 front-page stories in the New York Times and Investors Daily, considerable coverage in the broadcast media and a joint meeting with representatives of all the U.S. government‘s statistical agencies.

Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades.   Problems include changes in reporting methodologies that have pushed headline economic and inflation results outside the realm of real-world or common experience.

Over the decades, Williams has given thousands of presentations on the U.S. economic outlook and on approaches to analyzing economic data, to clients “large and small” including talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities, as well as having provided testimony before the U.S. Congress.

Public response to a 2004 series of articles on the quality of government statistics was so strong that he started Shadow Government Statistics, a newsletter first published on ShadowStats.com in 2004.   That weekly commentary is published as part of his economic consulting services.

Find out more about ShadowStats.com

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

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Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – HERE

Stocks mentioned in this episode: (GLD), (SLV), (MSFT), (META)

Herky-Jerky market action continues.

Powell puts down the gavel.

Tariffs enter the picture again

And our Guest this week – Steve Selengut talking Retirement Money Secrets and The Biggest Mistakes People make investing.

 

Steve Selengut, a 40+ year professional investment manager/advisor/RIA/IAR whose current adventure is coaching both individuals and other advisors in creating income independence for themselves and their clients.

I’m also promoting my 2nd book, Retirement Money Secrets.  

Steve was a private investment manager for 44 years, personally managing around 325 individual portfolios in the USA and abroad. One of a very few investment book authors who have directly managed other people’s money.

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

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Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – HERE

Stocks mentioned in this episode: (NFLX)

What commodities look attractive here and why?

Inflation CPI reports – just not looking good

Major banks kick off earnings season..

Guest: Robbie Miles, CFA – Allianz Global

 

Robbie Miles, CFA, ACA – Portfolio Manager (Director) in the Global Thematic Equity team, London

Robbie is a Portfolio Manager at Allianz Global Investors (AGI) with over 12 years of investment experience. He is the lead portfolio manager of two global equity strategies, Positive Change and Food Security, having previously co-run the Global Sustainability fund. He is a Director within the Global Thematic team, which combines bottom-up stock research with thematic analysis.

Robbie joined AGI in 2014, spending 4 of those years in San Francisco, leading the firm’s sustainable investment integration process in the US. Before joining Allianz Global Investors, he qualified as a Chartered Accountant with PwC. Robbie has a first class degree in Environment & Business from the University of Leeds. He is a CFA charterholder.

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

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Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – HERE

Stocks mentioned in this episode: (OIL), (DBC), (AAPL), (C), (JPM)

Gold hitting new highs – and oil is on the rise

Easy policy over in Japan  While China is stimulating

Big employment report moves markets

Guest David Gaffen – Editor at Reuters.

David Gaffen is the U.S. breaking news companies editor at Reuters, where he has worked for 14 years. He also did stints as the U.S. energy editor and U.S. deputy markets editor and has been a business journalist for more than 20 years.

In that time he has covered the 2008 financial crisis, the oil-market meltdown in 2020, and was nominated for a Loeb Award for a series of articles on the growth of stock buybacks in 2015. He lives in New York with his family.

Follow @DavidGaffen

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

Looking to invest in The Disciplined Investor Managed Growth Strategy?
Click HERE for the virtual tour.

Stocks Mentioned in the Episode: (DIS), (SBUX), (BA), (AMC), (GME), (TSLA), (MSFT)

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Bang Zoom to the Moon – Bitcoin ramps to new highs – Then again so do equities.

Goldilocks – SHE’S BAAAACK

And our Guest today – my good friend Tom Nelson – SVP for Franklin Templeton Investments.

Tom Nelson is a senior vice president and head of asset allocation portfolio management for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. He is a member of the Investment Strategy & Research Committee.

He is a portfolio manager of a number of funds offered for sale in various jurisdictions. He is lead portfolio manager of the Franklin NextStep Fund series, the Franklin VolSmart Allocation VIP Fund and numerous model portfolio programs. He is portfolio manager of Franklin LifeSmart Retirement Target Funds, the Franklin Fund Allocator Series available in the United States and several custom institutional portfolio mandates.

Mr. Nelson joined Franklin Templeton in 2007 and co-founded the firm’s quantitative research services group upon joining the company. He moved to Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions in 2009. Prior to working at Franklin Templeton, Mr. Nelson worked for Bloomberg LP from 1991 to 2007, where he was most recently manager of the Americas market specialist teams.

Mr. Nelson holds a B.S. in accounting from the University of Delaware. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) charterholder and a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) charterholder. He is a member of the CFA Institute, the New York Society of Security Analysts and the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Association.

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

Looking to invest in The Disciplined Investor Managed Growth Strategy?
Click HERE for the virtual tour.

Stocks Mentioned in the Episode: (GLD), (MSFT), (AAPL), (OIL), (NVDA)

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The Fed – Is Powell throwing in the towel?

AI – Profits spreading – lots of money to be made.

Apple – dragged down by a new lawsuit.

90 years of evidence, this week’s guest says this is the key asset class to own..

Paul Merriman is a nationally recognized authority on mutual funds, index investing, asset allocation and both buy-and-hold and active management strategies. Now retired from Merriman, the Seattle-based investment advisory firm he founded in 1983, he is dedicated to educating investors, young and old, through weekly articles at Marketwatch.com, and via free eBooks, podcasts, articles, recommendations for mutual funds, ETFs, 401(k) plans and more, at his website.

In his retirement, Paul remains fervently committed to educating and empowering investors. In 2012, he wrote and published the “How To Invest” series, distilling his decades of expertise into concise investment books targeted to specific audiences “First-Time Investor: Grow and Protect Your Money,” “101 Investment Decisions Guaranteed to Change Your Financial Future,” and “Get Smart or Get Screwed: How To Select The Best and Get The Most From Your Financial Advisor.”

Paul is also the author of four previous books on personal investing, including Financial Fitness Forever: 5 Steps To More Money, Less Risk and More Peace of Mind (McGraw Hill, Oct. 2011). The book was part of the “Financial Fitness Kit” offered on the TV show, “Financial Fitness After 50,” created exclusively to raise funds for local Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) stations.

Check out the FREE Book – 12 Simple Ways to Supercharge Your Retirement

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

Looking to invest in The Disciplined Investor Managed Growth Strategy?
Click HERE for the virtual tour.

Stocks Menti0ned in the Episode: (ORCL), (MSFT), (AAPL), (MU), (NVDA), (VBR)

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Two more hot inflation reports – stickier than thought.

What goes up – doesn’t have to come down – but often checks back.

Tax season is here – a few friendly reminders

Guest – Paul Barron – The Paul Barron Network

 

Paul Barron is a technologist and futurist that has forecasted various major market shifts in the past 25 years from a 100 billion impact on the restaurant and retail business to the impact of social media on our society in 2007. He has built the next era media platform for professionals based on video, podcasts, and on-demand content strategies that is re-mapping modern-day media. As an award-winning author, speaker, filmmaker, and consumer behavior analyst with over 25 years in technology and digital media, he is bridging the gap between the next generation of companies and how they connect to a completely new consumer.

His accolades include: 2019 Top 8 Industry Thought Leaders, 2018 #1 Most Influential in Food, 2018 Studio 50 Creative & Technologist Award Winner, 2017 Top 35 Industry Leaders to follow, 2016 Author of the year, 2015 James Beard Nominee, 2015 “Forbes” Top 50 Most Influential, 2012 Trendsetter of the Year, 2012 author of “The Chipotle Effect”, founder of “Fastcasual.com”, and the executive producer of the documentary Fast Casual Nation – Changing The Way America Eats and his new book, Decade of Disruption set for 2020.

Industry veteran Paul Barron takes restaurant business insights to the next level. The restaurant industry isn’t just the business of food. It’s a cross-functioning, multivariate entity that touches almost every industry — after all, everyone needs to eat. So, why not learn from the greats from all businesses? Connect the dots, read between the lines, build innovative strategies, become a thought leader, get the inside scoop on trends and open your eyes to the full vision of restaurant and hospitality with The Barron Report and the Paul Barron Network.

Check out The Paul Barron Network

Follow @paulbarron

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

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Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – HERE

 

Stocks mentioned in this episode: (IBIT), (NVDA), (TOST), (ORCL), (COIN)

Markets moving – pros thinking about hedging – March is here and thinking about consolidation potential

AI hype continues and continues…

This week’s guest is Thomas Thornton – Hedge Fund Telemetry.

Thomas Thornton is a former portfolio manager, senior trader, and technical analyst with Level Global Investors and Galileo Capital. Tom has written a daily market note for a select group of hedge fund managers for years and now has offered it for all investors with Hedge Fund Telemetry. His long term focus on sentiment indicators borders on the obsessive. Our growing team at Hedge Fund Telemetry is comprised of current and former buy and sell side individuals.

Hedge Fund Telemetry was first conceived with inspiration from Tom’s lifelong passion following Formula 1 racing. In the early 90’s, Formula 1 teams started to equip cars with sensors on every imaginable component and data was relayed wirelessly through telemetry to the pits to analyze and then instructions from the pits were relayed back to the driver so he could make changes to find the optimal balance for the car. It has always been the same way for Tom, as a senior trader at his hedge fund, he would get in early, collect data from many sources, analyze that data, and then communicate information out to his firm so his team could properly balance the firm’s portfolio. It’s now our goal to relay that same type of information so that one can also gain that edge.

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Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

Follow @andrewhorowitz

 

Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – HERE

Stocks mentioned in this episode: (NVDA), (AAPL), (GOOGL), (BA), (META), (CSCO)

Education and implementation of investing techniques.

In this episode, we discuss the important aspects investing, best execution and  enhancements to a really cool trading platform.

This episode’s guest: Steve Sanders – EVP at Interactive Brokers.

Steve Sanders is Executive Vice President of Marketing & Product Development at Interactive Brokers. In this capacity, he oversees all marketing and product development efforts at the company and introduces Interactive Brokers’ low commissions, advanced trading technology and breadth of product worldwide to advanced individual and institutional investors globally.

Steve joined Interactive Brokers in 2001 to establish the company’s platform for financial advisors. Since that time, he has been responsible for many key initiatives including building a direct / digital marketing program, developing a new account structure and registration process for institutional investor clients and contributing to the deployment of the company’s Integrated Investment Account.  During his over twenty-year tenure with the company, Steve has remained focused on providing IBKR clients with the products, tools and resources necessary to meet a wide variety of trading and investing objectives, which he believes has contributed to the company’s extraordinary growth over the years.

Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Steve spent fifteen years at Citibank in a variety of positions including Managing Director and Chief Technology Officer of Cybic, a “Request for Quote” exchange to facilitate the distribution of OTC derivative products to retail investors, which he developed. Before that, he held diverse roles throughout the organization in credit & risk management, marketing, financial planning, and product structuring functions.

Steve holds an MBA in Finance from the University of Chicago and an undergraduate degree from SUNY at Albany in Accounting and Computer Science.

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

Follow @andrewhorowitz

Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – HERE

Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AAPL), (NVDA)

No stopping a speeding freight train

A rising tide raises all CHIPS – and boy did they rise

Inflation still an issue and the Fed trying to talk markets down (Not working)

Guest: Larry McMillan takes us through some interesting options strategies.

Professional trader Lawrence G. McMillan is perhaps best known as the author of Options As a Strategic Investment, the best-selling work on stock and index options strategies, which has sold over 300,000 copies. An active trader of his own account, he also manages option-oriented accounts for certain individuals. In a research capacity, he edits and contributes to his firm’s publications: Daily Volume Alerts, The Option Strategist and The Daily Strategist – derivative products newsletters covering equity, index, and futures options. Finally, he speaks on option strategies at many seminars and colloquia in the United States, Canada, and Europe. He is often seen on CNBC and Bloomberg TV and is quoted in publications such as The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, Data Broadcasting’s “Exchange” magazine, Futures Magazine, theStreet.com, Active Trader Magazine and many others.  In 2011, Mr. McMillan received the prestigious Sullivan Award in recognition on behalf of his outstanding contributions to the growth and integrity of the U.S. options markets.

Follow @optstrategist

CHECK IT OUT To claim the offer attendees should visit www.OptionStrategist.com/TDI

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

Follow @andrewhorowitz

Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – HERE

Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AAPL), (NVDA)

Inflation – Maybe Stagflation? Surging unprofitable stocks – a bit of déjà vu here AI fever rolls on (and on). After serving as a Captain in the United States Marine Corps, Dr. Gray earned an MBA and a PhD in finance from the University of Chicago where he studied under Nobel Prize Winner Eugene Fama. Next, Wes took an academic job in his wife’s hometown of Philadelphia and worked as a finance professor at Drexel University. Dr. Gray’s interest in bridging the research gap between academia and industry led him to found Alpha Architect, an asset management firm dedicated to an impact mission of empowering investors through education. He is a contributor to multiple industry publications and regularly speaks to professional investor groups across the country. Wes has published multiple academic papers and four books, including Embedded (Naval Institute Press, 2009), Quantitative Value (Wiley, 2012), DIY Financial Advisor (Wiley, 2015), and Quantitative Momentum (Wiley, 2016). Dr. Gray currently resides in Palmas Del Mar. Puerto Rico with his wife and three children. Follow @alphaarchitect Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (TOST), (SMCI), (NVDA), (SPY), (YETI)