American Soccer Analysis is a new weekly podcast that covers Major League Soccer and the US Men's National Team from a numbers perspective. Hosts Harrison Crow, Matthias Kullowatz, and Drew Olsen believe that soccer is best understood not by fat old men in smoky rooms, but by fat young men staring at Excel spreadsheets. The guys bring an enthusiasm, statistical acumen, and deep understanding of the game that can be rivaled only by the likes of Gus Johnson, Simon Borg, and John Harkes.
The top four go in as favorites, and the top four leave as semifinalists. There were no upsets in the NWSL quarterfinals, as Orlando, Washington, Gotham, and Kansas City all moved on. Some games were unprecedented blowouts, like the Pride's demolition of the Red Stars (0:57). Others were tighter affair than anticipated, as the Current's defeat of the Courage proved to be (12:49). The final two match-ups were dreary, attritional affairs until they very much weren't, as the Spirit got past a resilient Bay FC (22:42) and Gotham pipped the Thorns at the death (34:49).Â
What will the semifinals between Orlando-KC (46:09) and Washington-Gotham (56:46) be like? Is each match really a coin flip? The Guys get into all of it.Â
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
In Part 2 of our NWSL quarterfinals preview, we take a look at Sunday's doubleheader. According to one projection model, Bay FC actually have a decent chance to upset the Washington Spirit. Will their new-look midfield and Racheal Kundananji's heroics puncture Washington's injury-riddled squad?Â
The Portland Thorns are all good vibes right now, having won two of their final three games, including an emphatic victory in Christine Sinclair's final game at Providence Park. But are those vibes enough to take down the Gotham T-1000? Gotham has been relentless, but Portland has a 1-in-5 shot of clapping back on last year's extra-time humiliation. Things could get spicy!
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
Donald Trump would ban the best of 3
The playoffs are set! The top four finished the season strong and look like they'll make it to the semifinals with ease. Or will they? The guys preview all four quarterfinal matchups, and wonder where we could see upsets. Do Bay FC have what it takes to get past an injury- and suspension-rattled Washington Spirit? Could the Portland Thorns put some payback on Gotham FC after last year's playoff defeat? Do the Chicago Red Stars have any hope at all? And is the Kansas City Current's match against the North Carolina Courage really as close as the seeding would suggest?
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
Then, they break down their picks for the NWSL awards slate. Most of these are no-brainers, but they make a case for some down-ballot candidates, followed by an in-depth discussion of how to approach Defender of the Year.Â
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
Playoffs, they’re here!
Racing Louisville grabbed all three points against the Portland Thorns thanks to a late corner header from Taylor Flint. Their playoff hopes are still alive, but is it too little too late? The guys cap off the episode with this playoff six-pointer (41:20). Before that, they run through playoff scenarios for the top four (1:01), ruminate on the two dead rubber matches between Angel City and the Utah Royals (20:40), as well as the Seattle Reign and Houston Dash (27:48). Some quick lamentations for the San Diego Wave in their pasting by the Kansas City Current (26:16) and some chuckles about the Washington Spirit-Chicago Red Stars grudge match (32:53). Bay FC are now the dark horse of the playoff field after their convincing defeat of the North Carolina Courage (35:01). And we close with everything that has to happen for Portland, Louisville, and Bay FC to get into the postseason (46:48).Â
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
The Chicago Red Stars own one of the worst xG differentials in league history. Only the Utah Royals have played worse in total this season. But Chicago just clinched a playoff berth, and look poised to finish the year in sixth place on a mere 1.3 points per game. Only four other teams have ever finished sixth or higher with that points total.
Can it really just be luck? Is their low-volume, high-efficiency attack and defense sustainable once they face better teams in the postseason? The guys dissect the Red Stars' 2-0 defeat to Gotham, and whether that result--combined with horrible recent performances against San Diego and Houston--can be overcome once November rolls around.Â
Click here to vote on what Evan has to do if the Red Stars win their quarterfinal match!Â
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
The boys poured out the good stuff and got into awards voting as they decide the actual ASA awards ballot in real time.
We have got some things to cover, here! The guys get into the news of Angel City's fines and suspensions for salary cap violations, the firing of former Houston Dash head coach Fran Alonso, the absurdity of the Chicago Red Stars conceding at least three xG for the second time in three weeks, Bay FC's four-minute meltdown, and the Orlando Pride's historic Shield win.Â
Then, it's on to the main events. Portland has been one of the worst teams in the NWSL since the end of the Olympics break. Racing Louisville has been fighting to get over the playoff line. Neither team did themselves any favors with two very different losses. Which team has the edge to go to the quarterfinals in November?Â
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
A scrappy 1-0 victory on the road to the Seattle Reign may not look like much, but Bay FC are creeping closer and closer to a playoff berth, only a few months removed from looking like one of the worst teams in the NWSL. The guys dig into all of the ways the team has managed to improve since early June, from trusting new players to Albertin Montoya reimagining the team's tactical vision. It's wild.Â
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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