Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja explore cities as civilization's most enduring institutions, examining their political dynamics, technological evolution, and role as interfaces between competing social forces and power structures.

Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

• Bismarck Brief: ⁠https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/⁠
• Live Players: ⁠https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers⁠

--

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: ⁠https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess⁠ 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at ⁠https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse⁠

--

SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | SQUAD

More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠.

Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to ⁠https://choosesquad.com/⁠ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

--

X / TWITTER:

@SamoBurja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

Key Highlights

Core Thesis:

• Cities are humanity's most enduring institutions (5,000+ years), persisting through complete civilizational changes due to human co-location needs

Political Dynamics:

• Cities vote left due to visible inequality and Democratic urban optimization
• Republicans lack compelling urban vision beyond deregulation
• Prediction: DC will become America's dominant city like Moscow or Paris

Digital-Physical Connection:

• Social media platforms remain tied to specific cities (Twitter/SF, Instagram/LA)
• Physical proximity still creates career advantages despite digital connectivity

Reform Strategies:

• Moving coordinated voter blocs more effective than building charter cities
• Charter cities work best in high-growth regions (Africa, Central America)
• Current cities technologically obsolete - not optimized for autonomous vehicles

Need for "Refounding":

• Cities require complete institutional overhaul rather than incremental reform
• Political and cultural change must originate in cities, not countryside

Today on Moment of Zen, we're excited to cross post a conversation from the newly revamped a16z podcast featuring Antonio Garcia Martinez and MSNBC's Chris Hayes exploring how AI-generated content is reshaping the attention economy, from algorithmic manipulation to the future of human creativity in digital spaces. Listen to more episodes of The a16z Podcast here: link.chtbl.com/blpusvv-

--

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: ⁠https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess⁠ 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at ⁠https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse⁠

--

SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | SQUAD

More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠.

Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to ⁠https://choosesquad.com/⁠ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

--

X / TWITTER:

@chrislhayes

@antoniogm

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

Key Highlights

• AI "Slop" Problem: Discussion of how AI-generated content could overwhelm social platforms with low-quality material, similar to email spam but at unprecedented scale
• Attention vs. Intent Gap: The fundamental tension between what captures our attention algorithmically versus what we actually want to consume
• Brand Advertising Paradox: Why major advertisers (Ford, Progressive) still avoid platforms like TikTok despite massive young audiences, suggesting ad tech limitations
• Cultural Homogenization: How algorithmic feeds are creating identical subcultures across geographic boundaries while fragmenting shared national experiences
• Group Chat Migration: The shift from public posting to private messaging as people seek authentic community away from performative social media
• Future Interface Prediction: AI chatbots becoming the primary way we interact with digital services, replacing traditional apps and websites
• Technology vs. Utility: The disconnect between what's profitable (attention-grabbing tech) versus what's genuinely useful (like solar power), and its implications for innovation priorities

Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja explore how China's elite universities are creating a ruling class similar to America's, with student activism and credentialism reshaping both nations' power structures.

Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

• Bismarck Brief: ⁠https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/⁠
• Live Players: ⁠https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers⁠

--

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: ⁠https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess⁠ 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at ⁠https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse⁠

--

SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | SQUAD

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at ⁠https://netsuite.com/zen⁠.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠.

Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to ⁠https://choosesquad.com/⁠ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

--

X / TWITTER:

@SamoBurja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

Key Highlights

Core Thesis: Elite Convergence

• China and America are creating remarkably similar ruling classes despite being geopolitical rivals with different political systems
• Universities are the primary mechanism driving this convergence in both countries

China's Leadership Evolution

• Historic shift: For the first time, Chinese leaders are educated in China's own elite universities (Peking, Tsinghua, etc.) rather than abroad or through practical experience
• From engineers to lawyers: China moving from technocrats with engineering backgrounds to university-credentialed elites
• Signaling theory: Chinese elite universities now function like Harvard/MIT as intelligence signals

"Chinese Woke" vs Western Woke

• China already has student activism - but it's Marxist/Maoist students organizing workers' unions
• Ideological trap: Communist Party struggles because students use party ideology to critique the party itself
• Future prediction: Chinese "woke" will likely focus on gender/feminism rather than racial/ethnic issues due to China's homogeneity

University Power Dynamics

• Zero-sum tournament: Universities create gatekeeping for elite positions in both countries
• Elite clubs, not education: Universities function more as exclusive clubs than learning institutions
• Defensibility: University power will be extremely difficult to dislodge without radical intervention

Consequences for China

• Positives: Better rule of law, higher status for journalists/lawyers, more humanistic perspective
• Negatives: Loss of business acumen, reduced technical expertise, potential future incompetence as credentials replace competence

Mirror Society Concept

• Both nations face similar paradoxes: Ideological foundations that create unresolvable contradictions
• Generational warfare: Young elites using ideology to displace older generations in both systems
• Talent retention: China increasingly keeping its best students domestically rather than sending them to American universities

Long-term Prediction

China's government may become incompetent as university credentials replace practical experience and technical knowledge

Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja explore AI hardware dominance, US-China semiconductor competition, automation's economic impacts, and strategic industrial policy for maintaining technological leadership.

Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

• Bismarck Brief: ⁠https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/⁠
• Live Players: ⁠https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers⁠

--

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: ⁠https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess⁠ 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at ⁠https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse⁠

--

SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | SQUAD

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at ⁠https://netsuite.com/zen⁠.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠.

Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to ⁠https://choosesquad.com/⁠ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

--

X / TWITTER:

@SamoBurja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

Key Highlights

Hardware as AI's Foundation

• Data collection (cameras, self-driving cars) and computation infrastructure are the two critical hardware pillars driving AI advancement
• Physical proximity between chip designers, manufacturers, and users creates significant competitive advantages

US-China Semiconductor Competition

• Export controls came too late and actually accelerated China's domestic chip development
• Taiwan's TSMC holds crucial position due to personal relationships (Jensen Huang-TSMC founder connection)
• China has skilled engineers who can optimize hardware locally, creating efficiency gains

Proposed US Strategy

• Create special industrial zones (Bay Area or Texas) co-locating chip fabs, data centers, and AI labs
• Massive government investment ($500B-$1T) to build "America's TSMC"
• Talent acquisition focused on patriotic Americans rather than relying solely on foreign talent
• Start with defense contracts (NSA/CIA) to justify fully US-manufactured chips

Automation's Political Risks

• Automating 50% of white-collar work = economic growth
• Automating 95% of white-collar work without physical automation = political disaster
• Displaced laptop class more dangerous than displaced blue-collar workers due to organizational capabilities
• Risk of expanded bureaucracy and protectionist policies

Physical vs. Knowledge Work

• Knowledge work easier to automate (already digitized)
• Physical automation requires specialized companies for each domain (5+ years per application)
• Preference for specialized robotics over general humanoid robots to maintain employment transitions

Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja examine Singapore's transformation from poor post-colonial state to wealthy financial hub through Lee Kuan Yew's strategic governance, geopolitical balancing, and prioritizing economic efficiency over individual freedoms.

Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

• Bismarck Brief: ⁠https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/⁠
• Live Players: ⁠https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers⁠

--

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: ⁠https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess⁠ 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at ⁠https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse⁠

--

SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | SQUAD

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at ⁠https://netsuite.com/zen⁠.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠.

Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to ⁠https://choosesquad.com/⁠ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

--

X / TWITTER:

@SamoBurja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

Key Highlights

Foundation & Strategy

• Lee Kuan Yew transformed Singapore from poor colony to wealthy financial hub through meritocratic governance
• Strategic location on Straits of Malacca controls vital trade routes to China

Governance Model

• High government salaries prevent corruption and attract talent
• Prioritized economic growth over social benefits through "delayed gratification"
• City-state scale enables efficient planning and direct accountability

Economic Evolution

• 1960s-90s: Industrial development
• Post-1990s: Tax haven and Asian financial center
• Current: Attracting foreign headquarters and wealthy immigrants

Geopolitical Navigation

• Successfully balanced US-Soviet competition during Cold War
• Defeated internal communist movement in 1960s
• Now faces choice between US alliance vs Chinese economic integration

Unique Features

• Harsh law enforcement (death penalty, caning) maintains order in dense city
• Land reclamation for expansion
• Investing in insect protein/vertical farming for food security

Challenges

• Vulnerable to deglobalization as trade blocs form
• Lee family succession continues (hereditary leadership)
• Failed to solve demographic decline despite early efforts

Lessons

• Scalable: Low corporate taxes, strong city governance, automation investment
• Non-scalable: Extreme efficiency pressure, geographic advantages, population density

Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg talks with Samo Burja on "long history" - the thesis that human civilization is far older than believed, with complex societies predating agriculture by millennia. It examines why civilizations rise and fall, and implications for preventing our own collapse.

Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

• Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
• Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers

--

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse

--

SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | SQUAD

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.

Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

--

X / TWITTER:

@SamoBurja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

Long History Thesis

• Human civilization is much older than believed - complex societies existed before agriculture
• Göbekli Tepe (11,500 years old) features monumental construction 1,000 years before earliest agriculture
• Academic consensus moves slowly; archaeologists find what they expect to find

Why Civilizations Fall

• Pattern 1: Military overextension and fiscal collapse (like Soviet Union)
• Pattern 2: Complex trade network breakdown (Bronze Age collapse example)
• History isn't linear progress - it's cycles of rise, stagnation, and fall

Modern Implications

• We may not reach the singularity - could face our own stagnation period
• Military overextension is a current US risk
• China and US are 80-90% similar despite perceived differences

Preventing Collapse

• Diversify beyond university monoculture - generate more "live players"
• Invest in novel energy sources and government experimentation
• Address fertility crisis (affects all societies regardless of politics)
• Avoid rationalizing decline as environmental success

Historical Lessons

• Ancient societies had sophisticated "social technologies" we've lost
• Study history for positive examples, not just cautionary tales
• Human nature and organizational capacity remain largely unexplored

Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg talk with Samo Burja on nuclear weapons proliferation, energy geopolitics, and his "nuclear accelerationist" argument that widespread nuclear capability is inevitable, so countries should pursue abundant nuclear energy despite proliferation risks.

Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

• Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
• Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers

--

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse

--

SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

--

X / TWITTER:

@SamoBurja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

Core Argument: "Nuclear Accelerationism"

• Nuclear weapons proliferation is inevitable - the 80-year-old technology is only getting easier
• We're paying security costs without reaping energy benefits
• Should accelerate civilian nuclear development to achieve energy abundance

• North Korea precedent: Even poor, isolated countries can build nukes
• Japan example: Already has tons of plutonium, could build weapons in <1 year
• Proliferation ratchet: Countries rarely denuclearize once they acquire weapons
• National security incentives overwhelm nonproliferation efforts

• Nuclear club expansion: Countries with existing weapons should build thousands of reactors
• Energy exports: Non-nuclear countries buy electricity from nuclear neighbors
• Scale economics: Need massive reactor deployment for true cost advantages
• Incentive structure: Subsidize alternatives for countries that forgo nuclear tech

• Small arsenals (dozens of nukes) create different dynamics than superpower stockpiles (thousands)
• Current "doomsday machine" logic only applies to US/Russia/China
• Widespread small arsenals might actually reduce conventional war risk

Today on Moment of Zen, we're airing a conversation with economist Noah Smith and Substack CEO Chris Best discussing the evolving media landscape. They dive into whether Twitter's dominance is waning, what features a successor platform would need, and how artificial intelligence is set to transform media as we know it. This conversation originally took place live on Noah's Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

--

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse

--

SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

--

RELATED LINKS:

Eugene Wei's Status as a Service: https://www.eugenewei.com/blog/2019/2/19/status-as-a-service

Twitter, Threads, and Remote Work with Eugene Wei:

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1zSxuEAgUUlptJHNEr2Q7O

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/twitter-threads-and-remote-work-with-eugene-wei/id1661672738?i=1000621483289

--

X / TWITTER:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

Breaking News Platform Concept

• Noah proposed Substack could replace Twitter's former role as a breaking news hub by recruiting OSINT specialists and citizen journalists to create live blogs
• These would function as both real-time updates and daily digest newsletters, solving the chicken-and-egg problem of audience vs. content

AI's Impact on Media

• AI will serve as a "force multiplier" for writers rather than replacing them entirely
• Key applications: summarization, curation, and search enhancement
• Writers may use AI teams to amplify their unique perspectives and research capabilities

Platform Evolution

• Twitter's decline attributed to the shift from chronological to algorithmic feeds (pull to push media)
• The "age of Twitter" for breaking news lasted roughly 2011-2023
• Substack currently excels at day-after analysis but lacks real-time news capabilities

Geopolitical Concerns

• Noah expressed pessimism about US competitiveness against China due to population size (4x difference)
• Concerns about weakened alliance systems under recent US foreign policy
• Worries about falling behind in electric/battery technology due to policy and cultural resistance

Content Abundance Problem

• Both noted the challenge of infinite content creation vs. scarce attention
• Emphasized importance of choosing content that shapes who you become, not just what you want right now

Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg examine how dynastic succession can outperform meritocratic systems. The discussion analyzes successful family-controlled enterprises like the New York Times, Samsung, and Sweden's Wallenberg companies, arguing that hereditary structures can often solve succession problems more effectively than rational selection mechanisms.

Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

• Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
• Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers

--

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

--

SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

--

X / TWITTER:

@SamoBurja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith debunk the myth that globalization destroyed America's middle class, showing wages actually grew during hyperglobalization. It examines the limited "China shock" impact and critiques how both political tribes' technology fears may handicap America's competitiveness against China.

--

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse

--

SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

--

X / TWITTER:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

Main Argument

• Myth: Globalization hollowed out America's middle class
• Reality: Middle class moved UP income brackets; wages grew 40% during peak globalization

Real Causes

• 1973 oil shock caused wage stagnation (70s-80s), not globalization
• China shock (2000s): Only 2M manufacturing jobs lost, limited scope

America vs. China

• US: Less globalized than most countries; only 4% manufacturing trade deficit
• China: Cities will look shabby in 30 years; exports falling as % of GDP

Political Technology Paralysis

• Republicans: Fear hardware (solar, batteries, EVs)
• Progressives: Fear software (AI, social media)
• Both sides handicapping American tech leadership while China advances

Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja examine "failed" industrial revolutions throughout history, particularly Rome's sophisticated water-powered manufacturing, standardized production, and steam engine prototypes. The discussion explores how civilizations like Rome and Song Dynasty China achieved industrial-scale commerce and technology before ultimately plateauing or collapsing due to demographic, military, or economic constraints.

Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

• Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
• Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers

--

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse

--

SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

--

X / TWITTER:

@SamoBurja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

Roman Industrial Capabilities:

• Extensive use of water power for mills, ironworks, marble cutting, and mining
• Mass production of pottery (53 million amphora estimated from one Roman hill)
• Standardized parts for statues, military equipment, and containers
• Advanced metallurgy producing air pollution detectable in Greenland ice cores

Technological Sophistication:

• Hero of Alexandria created functional steam engines as early experiments
• Romans used coal for heating and had portable fire pumps
• Nanotechnology in glassware (Lycurgus Cup with gold/silver particles)
• Complex mechanical devices and automated systems

Economic Scale:

• Billion+ amphora production across the empire
• Sophisticated consumer economy with middle class purchasing power
• Standardized commerce and shipping networks across Mediterranean
• Industrial-scale mining that reshaped entire landscapes

Why They "Failed":

• Population decline removed growth incentive
• Military pressures from external forces
• Reached saturation point where demand was met
• Industrial revolutions follow S-curves that plateau without continued expansion

Broader Pattern:

• Song Dynasty China faced similar trajectory before nomadic conquests
• Large-scale commerce and state demand were prerequisites
• Water transportation networks enabled industrial development
• All required demographic/geographic growth to sustain technological advancement