Today on Moment of Zen is a conversation I had with Samo Burja about the intricate historical, military, and cultural dimensions of the India-Pakistan conflict, and how these nuclear neighbors navigate their complex relationship.

This podcast originally aired on the Village Global podcast.

Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

• Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
• Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers

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SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | | SQUAD

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

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RECOMMENDED LINK/S:

India: Live Players Analysis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GbsYh2kx7Y 

--

Follow on X:

@samoburja
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia

--

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

• Conflict stems from unresolved partition issues dividing predominantly Muslim and Hindu regions
• India's large Muslim population (200-300 million) creates internal stability concerns during potential conflicts
• Pakistan relies heavily on its military for national cohesion despite ethnic diversity
• Both nations possess modern military capabilities including nuclear weapons (170-200 warheads each)
• Nuclear conflict would likely only occur if Pakistan's government faced collapse or if India pursued regime change
• A nuclear war could cause millions of deaths and create 30-50 million refugees
• China maintains ties with Pakistan and has its own territorial disputes with India
• Likely future: continued sporadic fighting followed by ceasefires rather than full-scale war
• Pakistan's legitimacy relies on opposing India; India sees Pakistan as obstacle to global influence
• Unlike Israel-Palestine, this conflict could theoretically be resolved without existential questions
• India's optimal strategy: economically outgrow Pakistan while maintaining internal security

Today on Moment of Zen, we're sharing a conversation  about defense innovation bureaucracy reform recorded at this week's Hill & Valley Forum in Washington D.C.

 In this session, Palantir, CTO Sha Sankar and Senator Mike Lee dissect America's defense innovation paralysis. They articulate how bureaucratic accretion stifles the necessary competition and "heretical" personalities historically driving breakthroughs. Their prescription: regulatory reset via the REINS Act, competing procurement programs, and empowering maverick leaders—essential counters to China's accelerating AI capabilities.

If you're interested to hear all the talks from the forum, please subscribe to The Hill & Valley Forum Podcast: ⁠YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HillValleyForum⁩⁠ Apple:⁠ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-hill-valley-forum-podcast/id1692653857⁠ Spotify: ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/39s4MCyt1pOTQ8FjOAS4mi⁠ -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at ⁠https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse⁠ -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at ⁠https://netsuite.com/zen⁠. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠. The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠https://adquick.com/⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- Follow on X: @SenMikeLee (Senator Mike Lee) @friedberg (Shyam Sankar) @cgarrett_15 (Christian Garrett) @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- KEY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Defense innovation has stalled by prioritizing process over people and rigidly following bureaucratic procedures
• Competition between services and programs historically drove breakthroughs but has been lost
• America needs more "heretical" founder-type leaders within defense
• The REINS Act could restore constitutional order by requiring Congress to approve regulations
• Bureaucratic reform is essential to compete with China in the AI arms race

Today on Moment of Zen, we're sharing a conversation about rebuilding American manufacturing recorded at this week's Hill & Valley Forum in Washington D.C. Senator Todd Young is joined by Shaun Maguire, a partner at Sequoia, and David Friedberg the CEO of Ohalo to discuss the massive energy gap with China, how to reform education for industrial jobs, and where strategic innovation could help the US regain its competitive edge. If you're interested to hear all the talks from the forum, please subscribe to The Hill & Valley Forum Podcast: ⁠YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HillValleyForum⁩⁠ Apple:⁠ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-hill-valley-forum-podcast/id1692653857⁠ Spotify: ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/39s4MCyt1pOTQ8FjOAS4mi⁠ -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at ⁠https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse⁠ -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at ⁠https://netsuite.com/zen⁠. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠. The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠https://adquick.com/⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- Follow on X: @SenToddYoung (Senator Todd Young) @friedberg (David Friedberg) @shaunmmaguire (Shaun Maguire) @cgarrett_15 (Christian Garrett) @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Preview (00:57) Introduction to the panel on rebuilding American manufacturing (01:25) Panel discussion begins on industrial strength in America (02:29) Shaun Maguire on creating national champions to rebuild supply chains (04:43) Senator Young on government's role in reshoring critical technologies (08:00) David Friedberg on energy and education as baseline problems (14:35) Sponsors: Netsuite | Shopify (17:05) Discussion on nuclear energy policy and regulatory reform (20:00) Role of automation in American manufacturing revival (22:48) Debate on friend-shoring versus onshoring manufacturing (27:48) Magic wand policy changes to bring back manufacturing (30:56) Sponsors: AdQuick | Squad (32:53) Outro

Today on Moment of Zen, we're sharing a conversation from the 2024 Hill and Valley Forum with the founders of Scale AI, Anthropic, and AI Fund on the urgent race between the U.S. and China in AI innovation.

Moderated by Senator Cory Booker and featuring Alexandr Wang, Jack Clark, and Andrew Eng, the panel covers why American AI leadership is at risk, and how smarter policy and faster deployment are critical to maintaining a competitive edge. (Note: that this conversation took place before the DeepSeek breakthrough.)

Keep an eye out for the 2025 Hill and Valley Forum on Wednesday, April 30 — and subscribe to the Hill & Valley podcast in the episode description to listen to every panel.

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/39s4MCyt1pOTQ8FjOAS4mi

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-hill-valley/id1692653857

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HillValleyForum

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SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

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X / TWITTER:

@CoryBooker

@AndrewYNg

@alexandr_wang
@jackclarkSF

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

US-China AI competition:

• The panelists strongly disagree with the Rand Corporation's assessment that China won't produce major AI advances
• Jack Clark emphasized that underestimating China's creativity would be "chronically stupid"
• Alex Wang noted Chinese companies have built some of the best open-source AI models in the world

Regulation approach:

• The panelists generally advocated for minimal regulation that doesn't stifle innovation
• Andrew Ng compared AI to electricity (not a "dual-use" but "multi-use" technology) that shouldn't be over-regulated
• The panel suggested regulating specific applications rather than the foundational technology

National security concerns:

• Alex Wang expressed that the US Department of Defense is using AI too slowly compared to adversaries
• The panelists identified bureaucracy as a major obstacle to the US military adopting AI quickly enough
• They described a "triple whammy" situation: rapidly advancing technology, increasing global conflicts, and risk-seeking leadership in rival nations

Infrastructure needs:

• Jack Clark advocated for US investment in computing infrastructure to maintain leadership
• He mentioned permit reform as surprisingly crucial for AI advancement to build data centers
• The panel discussed the need for the US to compete with Middle Eastern countries' massive AI investments

Future vision (2055):

• Jack Clark: Everyone will have customized education and tutoring
• Alex Wang: Scientific breakthroughs will make sci-fi futures a reality
• Andrew Ng: Intelligence will become cheap and accessible to everyone, not just the wealthy

Today's episode is a conversation I had with Samo Burja in 2019 about why civilizations collapse, how functional institutions are built, and what makes some societies flourish while others decay. We explore his Great Founder Theory, the myth of egalitarianism, and why exceptional outliers drive innovation more than democratic processes.

This podcast originally aired on the Village Global podcast.

Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

• Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
• Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers

--

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith

Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165

--

SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | BREX | INCOGNI

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

Ready to take your startup to the next level? Visit https://www.brex.com/grow to join the 30,000+ companies already streamlining their finances with Brex. Get high-yield banking, smart expense management, and scalable financial tools designed specifically for founders who want to focus on building, not bookkeeping.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/moment

--

RECOMMENDED LINKS:

Functional Institutions are the Exception

https://www.samoburja.com/functional-institutions-are-the-exception/

Intellectual Dark Matter

https://samoburja.com/intellectual-dark-matter/

--

X / TWITTER:

@SamoBurja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

• Societies are artificial constructs built on cornerstone institutions and knowledge that require intentional renewal
• Great Founder Theory: exceptional individuals like Steve Jobs create transformative changes that shape institutions
• Singapore as an example of successful governance through visionary leadership and long-term thinking
• Egalitarianism often functions as a control mechanism rather than a practical reality
• Technology inherently drives centralization despite temporary decentralization phases
• Future global order likely to be bipolar between US (innovation advantage) and China (different values)
• Successful institutions require adaptability to changing circumstances

In this episode of Moment of Zen, New York Times columnist Ross Douthat joins Erik Torenberg to discuss his new book "Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious," making the case that institutional religion is not just socially beneficial but intellectually defensible. They discuss the decline of New Atheism, the tension between traditional Christianity and Silicon Valley's techno-optimism within the "New Right" coalition, and whether AI consciousness points to something beyond materialism.

--

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith

Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165

--

SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | BREX | INCOGNI

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

Ready to take your startup to the next level? Visit https://www.brex.com/grow to join the 30,000+ companies already streamlining their finances with Brex. Get high-yield banking, smart expense management, and scalable financial tools designed specifically for founders who want to focus on building, not bookkeeping.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/moment

--

LINKS:

Ross Douthat: https://www.nytimes.com/column/ross-douthat

Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious: https://www.zondervan.com/p/believe/

X / TWITTER:

@DouthatNYT

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

• Ross explains we're at a cultural inflection point where secularization has plateaued and there's evidence of religious revival.
• New atheism has declined as the world hasn't become more reasonable despite becoming less religious.
• Ross argues religion is intellectually defensible based on fine-tuning of the universe and the hard problem of consciousness.
• He contends that merely appreciating religion's social benefits isn't enough—genuine belief is necessary.
• The AI discussion explores whether consciousness might exist beyond materialist explanations.
• They examine tensions in the "New Right" between tech-optimists and religious traditionalists.

Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja examine India's trajectory as the world's most populous nation, tackling India's surprising demographic decline, delayed industrialization due to bureaucratic inefficiency, and complex relations with China and Pakistan. They explore Modi's nationalist approach, India's digital potential, and how institutional barriers might limit India's rise in a multipolar world order.

Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

• Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
• Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers

--

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse

--

RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith

Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165

--

SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | BREX | INCOGNI

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

Ready to take your startup to the next level? Visit https://www.brex.com/grow to join the 30,000+ companies already streamlining their finances with Brex. Get high-yield banking, smart expense management, and scalable financial tools designed specifically for founders who want to focus on building, not bookkeeping.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/moment

--

X / TWITTER:

@SamoBurja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

• Demographics: India has surpassed China in population but faces rapid aging with fertility rates already below replacement level.
• Economic Development: Industrialization likely within 50 years, not 10; constrained by bureaucracy and regulation rather than demographics.
• Reform Needs: Requires anti-corruption efforts, reduced bureaucracy, special economic zones, and infrastructure development.
• Geopolitics: Complicated relationships with China (border disputes) and the West; Samo suggests India should be more self-interested in international relations.
• Modi's Impact: Promotes nationalism but hasn't effectively addressed bureaucratic problems.
• Digital Potential: Has talent for creating domestic tech giants with proper digital protectionism.
• Warning: Must avoid nuclear conflict with Pakistan.

Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja dive deep into how Xi Jinping is shaping China's society today and its place in the world. They discuss Xi’s firm hold on power, his connections with different political groups, and how his decisions are affecting China's economy, military, and politics.

Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

• Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
• Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers

—

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse 

--

RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith

Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165

--

SPONSORS: BREX | NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | INCOGNI

Ready to take your startup to the next level? Visit https://www.brex.com/grow to join the 30,000+ companies already streamlining their finances with Brex. Get high-yield banking, smart expense management, and scalable financial tools designed specifically for founders who want to focus on building, not bookkeeping.

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/moment

--

X / TWITTER:

@SamoBurja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

• Consolidated unprecedented power through anti-corruption campaigns
• Dismantled previous oligarchic system but created succession crisis
• Maintains Marxist ideology while managing slowing economic growth
• Limits wealth influence and civil society (Jack Ma case)
• Reframes economic challenges as equality/environmental successes
• Belt and Road Initiative less impactful than expected
• Scientific innovation hindered by political conformity
• Future paths: South Korea-style model or renewed socialist focus
• Demographic challenges may limit long-term economic/military power

Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss the complex relationship between Mexican drug cartels and the country's political system. Samo explains how cartels operate not as insurgencies but as business entities with deep connections to Mexican elites.

The discussion covers the economic impact of drug trafficking, how legalization affects cartel operations, and comparisons with other countries' experiences, and explore potential solutions for Mexico's development and the geopolitical implications for U.S.-Mexico relations.

Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

• Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
• Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers

—

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse 

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SPONSOR: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | INCOGNI | SQUAD

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/moment

Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

--

RECOMMENDATION FOR THIS PODCAST:

“Mexico’s Drug Cartels Are Not Competitors to the State” https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/mexicos-drug-cartels-are-not-competitors

--

X / TWITTER:

@SamoBurja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

• Cartels' Political Integration: Mexican cartels operate not as insurgencies against the state but as partners with government officials, creating a corrupt patronage system.
• Economic Impact: While drug trafficking represents a small percentage of Mexico's economy (0.3% of labor force), it provides significant corrupt revenue for political elites.
• Evolution of Cartel Operations: Following marijuana legalization in the U.S., cartels shifted from agriculture (growing marijuana/heroin) to chemistry (producing synthetic drugs like fentanyl).
• Border Security Concerns: The porous U.S.-Mexico border currently poses limited direct national security threats but could become problematic during escalating tensions with China or Russia.
• Development Challenges: Mexico's extractive elites and corrupt political economy hinder genuine industrialization and development.
• Potential Solutions: Successfully industrializing Mexico would require defeating extractive elites and eliminating corruption sources, potentially with U.S. or Chinese investment.
• Future Outlook: Latin American countries like Mexico might eventually become more peaceful as populations age, similar to countries like Portugal or Greece.

Erik Torenberg and economist Noah Smith dissect the Democratic Party's path forward. Smith advocates for fiscal responsibility over progressive rhetoric, refocusing democracy concerns away from voter ID laws toward election integrity, and embracing patriotic messaging instead of identity politics.

Their exchange ventures into Elon Musk's influence on Republican effectiveness, the merits of Japanese bureaucratic models, and building a more competitive political landscape where both parties can harness entrepreneurial talent to implement practical governance solutions.

—

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse 

—

SPONSOR: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | INCOGNI | SQUAD

Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/moment

Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

--

RELATED LINKS:

How the Democrats can fight back against MAGA

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-the-democrats-can-fight-back

Only fools think Elon is incompetent

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/only-fools-think-elon-is-incompetent

—

X / TWITTER:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE

Three Recommendations for Democrats:

• Anti-Inflation Strategy: Emphasize fiscally responsible policies, cut deficits, and abandon price controls and MMT rhetoric
• Democracy Focus: Focus specifically on election integrity rather than voter ID laws or gerrymandering
• Patriotic Messaging: Abandon progressive "America was founded on racism" rhetoric and embrace traditional American values

Tech Leadership Dynamics:

• Elon Musk has transformed Republican effectiveness through entrepreneurial approaches
• Democrats have alienated tech entrepreneurs through "tech bro" antagonism
• Democrats need their own tech-savvy leaders (suggestions included Sam Altman, Marc Benioff, Reid Hoffman)

Biden's Economic Record:

• The Inflation Reduction Act was misnamed but had positive industrial policy effects
• Biden successfully fought inflation through Fed policy, deficit reduction, and energy production
• The administration's effective actions contradicted progressive rhetoric

Project 2025 Critique:

• Good intentions but lacks nuanced understanding of government functions
• Relies too heavily on right-wing social media ecosystem for information
• Would benefit from consulting policy experts at conservative think tanks

Social Media Transformation:

• Twitter/X has become narrower and more political under Musk
• A more fragmented social media landscape is positive for America
• Social platforms naturally polarize along political lines

Alternative Economic Model:

• Need for a "third way" beyond neoliberalism
• Combine industrial policy, regulatory reforms, and Japanese-style bureaucratic approaches
• Emphasize efficient governance over ideological purity

Cultural Observations:

• "Situationships" replacing traditional relationships among young people
• Free speech principles being abandoned by some Democrats
• Increasing education polarization in political alignment

Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja examine the pervasive fascination with American political dynamics and their far-reaching impact worldwide, especially across Western democracies and European nations. They analyze how digital connectivity has accelerated the harmonization of political discourse and cultural values across borders, while exploring the emerging shifts in European political frameworks that increasingly reflect American ideological patterns and media narratives

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LINKS:

Two buttons meme: https://ih1.redbubble.net/image.2365085899.3351/st,small,507x507-pad,600x600,f8f8f8.jpg 

The Clash of Civilizations: https://www.amazon.com/Clash-Civilizations-Remaking-World-Order/dp/1451628978 

Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/

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X / TWITTER:

@SamoBurja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

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HIGHLIGHTS

Global Political Influence

• US politics heavily impact Western countries, while Americans know little about other nations' political leaders
• Western countries form a connected political unit, using only other Western nations as models

Internet's Unifying Effect

• Shared digital platforms have synchronized Western attention and culture more than ever before
• Younger Europeans increasingly consume political news in English online rather than in local languages

Political & Cultural Transfer

• American political concepts (from trans rights to gun advocacy) spread to Europe
• Tension between traditional European media control and Silicon Valley's free speech platforms like X.com

Potential European Transformation

• Free speech on social media could trigger significant right-wing political shifts in Europe
• Upcoming elections may demonstrate the impact of changing information access
• Questions about EU's "democratic deficit" and bureaucratic dominance

Western Alignment

• Liberal and conservative international movements both center on US terms and platforms
• Military strength contributes significantly to America's cultural influence
• Western nations function as a de facto alliance despite having no formal "Western Union"