Dwarkesh Podcast

Dwarkesh Patel

Deeply researched interviews

  • 52 minutes 52 seconds
    Tony Blair - Life of a PM, The Deep State, Lee Kuan Yew, & AI's 1914 Moment

    I chatted with Tony Blair about:

    - What he learned from Lee Kuan Yew

    - Intelligence agencies track record on Iraq & Ukraine

    - What he tells the dozens of world leaders who come seek advice from him

    - How much of a PM’s time is actually spent governing

    - What will AI’s July 1914 moment look like from inside the Cabinet?

    Enjoy!

    Watch the video on YouTube. Read the full transcript here.

    Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

    Sponsors

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    - This episode is brought to you by Stripe, financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue.

    If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, check out this page.

    Timestamps

    (00:00:00) – A prime minister’s constraints

    (00:04:12) – CEOs vs. politicians

    (00:10:31) – COVID, AI, & how government deals with crisis

    (00:21:24) – Learning from Lee Kuan Yew

    (00:27:37) – Foreign policy & intelligence

    (00:31:12) – How much leadership actually matters

    (00:35:34) – Private vs. public tech

    (00:39:14) – Advising global leaders

    (00:46:45) – The unipolar moment in the 90s



    Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe
    26 June 2024, 1:41 pm
  • 1 hour 33 minutes
    Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution

    Here is my conversation with Francois Chollet and Mike Knoop on the $1 million ARC-AGI Prize they're launching today.

    I did a bunch of socratic grilling throughout, but Francois’s arguments about why LLMs won’t lead to AGI are very interesting and worth thinking through.

    It was really fun discussing/debating the cruxes. Enjoy!

    Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple PodcastsSpotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.

    Timestamps

    (00:00:00) – The ARC benchmark

    (00:11:10) – Why LLMs struggle with ARC

    (00:19:00) – Skill vs intelligence

    (00:27:55) - Do we need “AGI” to automate most jobs?

    (00:48:28) – Future of AI progress: deep learning + program synthesis

    (01:00:40) – How Mike Knoop got nerd-sniped by ARC

    (01:08:37) – Million $ ARC Prize

    (01:10:33) – Resisting benchmark saturation

    (01:18:08) – ARC scores on frontier vs open source models

    (01:26:19) – Possible solutions to ARC Prize



    Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe
    11 June 2024, 5:03 pm
  • 4 hours 31 minutes
    Leopold Aschenbrenner - China/US Super Intelligence Race, 2027 AGI, & The Return of History

    Chatted with my friend Leopold Aschenbrenner on the trillion dollar nationalized cluster, CCP espionage at AI labs, how unhobblings and scaling can lead to 2027 AGI, dangers of outsourcing clusters to Middle East, leaving OpenAI, and situational awareness.

    Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple PodcastsSpotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.

    Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Follow Leopold on Twitter.

    Timestamps

    (00:00:00) – The trillion-dollar cluster and unhobbling

    (00:20:31) – AI 2028: The return of history

    (00:40:26) – Espionage & American AI superiority

    (01:08:20) – Geopolitical implications of AI

    (01:31:23) – State-led vs. private-led AI

    (02:12:23) – Becoming Valedictorian of Columbia at 19

    (02:30:35) – What happened at OpenAI

    (02:45:11) – Accelerating AI research progress

    (03:25:58) – Alignment

    (03:41:26) – On Germany, and understanding foreign perspectives

    (03:57:04) – Dwarkesh’s immigration story and path to the podcast

    (04:07:58) – Launching an AGI hedge fund

    (04:19:14) – Lessons from WWII

    (04:29:08) – Coda: Frederick the Great



    Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe
    4 June 2024, 3:39 pm
  • 1 hour 36 minutes
    John Schulman (OpenAI Cofounder) - Reasoning, RLHF, & Plan for 2027 AGI

    Chatted with John Schulman (cofounded OpenAI and led ChatGPT creation) on how posttraining tames the shoggoth, and the nature of the progress to come...

    Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple PodcastsSpotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

    Timestamps

    (00:00:00) - Pre-training, post-training, and future capabilities

    (00:16:57) - Plan for AGI 2025

    (00:29:19) - Teaching models to reason

    (00:40:50) - The Road to ChatGPT

    (00:52:13) - What makes for a good RL researcher?

    (01:00:58) - Keeping humans in the loop

    (01:15:15) - State of research, plateaus, and moats

    Sponsors

    If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, fill out this form.

    * Your DNA shapes everything about you. Want to know how? Take 10% off our Premium DNA kit with code DWARKESH at mynucleus.com.

    * CommandBar is an AI user assistant that any software product can embed to non-annoyingly assist, support, and unleash their users. Used by forward-thinking CX, product, growth, and marketing teams. Learn more at commandbar.com.



    Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe
    15 May 2024, 1:57 pm
  • 1 hour 17 minutes
    Mark Zuckerberg - Llama 3, Open Sourcing $10b Models, & Caesar Augustus

    Mark Zuckerberg on:

    - Llama 3

    - open sourcing towards AGI

    - custom silicon, synthetic data, & energy constraints on scaling

    - Caesar Augustus, intelligence explosion, bioweapons, $10b models, & much more

    Enjoy!

    Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple PodcastsSpotify, or any other podcast platform. Human edited transcript with helpful links here.

    Timestamps

    (00:00:00) - Llama 3

    (00:08:32) - Coding on path to AGI

    (00:25:24) - Energy bottlenecks

    (00:33:20) - Is AI the most important technology ever?

    (00:37:21) - Dangers of open source

    (00:53:57) - Caesar Augustus and metaverse

    (01:04:53) - Open sourcing the $10b model & custom silicon

    (01:15:19) - Zuck as CEO of Google+

    Sponsors

    If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, fill out this form.

    * This episode is brought to you by Stripe, financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. Learn more at stripe.com.

    * V7 Go is a tool to automate multimodal tasks using GenAI, reliably and at scale. Use code DWARKESH20 for 20% off on the pro plan. Learn more here.

    * CommandBar is an AI user assistant that any software product can embed to non-annoyingly assist, support, and unleash their users. Used by forward-thinking CX, product, growth, and marketing teams. Learn more at commandbar.com.



    Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe
    18 April 2024, 3:49 pm
  • 3 hours 12 minutes
    Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken - How to Build & Understand GPT-7's Mind

    Had so much fun chatting with my good friends Trenton Bricken and Sholto Douglas on the podcast.

    No way to summarize it, except: 

    This is the best context dump out there on how LLMs are trained, what capabilities they're likely to soon have, and what exactly is going on inside them.

    You would be shocked how much of what I know about this field, I've learned just from talking with them.

    To the extent that you've enjoyed my other AI interviews, now you know why.

    So excited to put this out. Enjoy! I certainly did :)

    Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple PodcastsSpotify, or any other podcast platform. 

    There's a transcript with links to all the papers the boys were throwing down - may help you follow along.

    Follow Trenton and Sholto on Twitter.

    Timestamps

    (00:00:00) - Long contexts

    (00:16:12) - Intelligence is just associations

    (00:32:35) - Intelligence explosion & great researchers

    (01:06:52) - Superposition & secret communication

    (01:22:34) - Agents & true reasoning

    (01:34:40) - How Sholto & Trenton got into AI research

    (02:07:16) - Are feature spaces the wrong way to think about intelligence?

    (02:21:12) - Will interp actually work on superhuman models

    (02:45:05) - Sholto’s technical challenge for the audience

    (03:03:57) - Rapid fire



    Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe
    28 March 2024, 3:10 pm
  • 1 hour 1 minute
    Demis Hassabis - Scaling, Superhuman AIs, AlphaZero atop LLMs, Rogue Nations Threat

    Here is my episode with Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind

    We discuss:

    * Why scaling is an artform

    * Adding search, planning, & AlphaZero type training atop LLMs

    * Making sure rogue nations can't steal weights

    * The right way to align superhuman AIs and do an intelligence explosion

    Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple PodcastsSpotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.

    Timestamps

    (0:00:00) - Nature of intelligence

    (0:05:56) - RL atop LLMs

    (0:16:31) - Scaling and alignment

    (0:24:13) - Timelines and intelligence explosion

    (0:28:42) - Gemini training

    (0:35:30) - Governance of superhuman AIs

    (0:40:42) - Safety, open source, and security of weights

    (0:47:00) - Multimodal and further progress

    (0:54:18) - Inside Google DeepMind



    Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe
    28 February 2024, 3:49 pm
  • 1 hour 54 minutes
    Patrick Collison (Stripe CEO) - Craft, Beauty, & The Future of Payments

    We discuss:

    * what it takes to process $1 trillion/year

    * how to build multi-decade APIs, companies, and relationships

    * what's next for Stripe (increasing the GDP of the internet is quite an open ended prompt, and the Collison brothers are just getting started).

    Plus the amazing stuff they're doing at Arc Institute, the financial infrastructure for AI agents, playing devil's advocate against progress studies, and much more.

    Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple PodcastsSpotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

    Timestamps

    (00:00:00) - Advice for 20-30 year olds

    (00:12:12) - Progress studies

    (00:22:21) - Arc Institute

    (00:34:27) - AI & Fast Grants

    (00:43:46) - Stripe history

    (00:55:44) - Stripe Climate

    (01:01:39) - Beauty & APIs

    (01:11:51) - Financial innards

    (01:28:16) - Stripe culture & future

    (01:41:56) - Virtues of big businesses

    (01:51:41) - John



    Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe
    21 February 2024, 3:25 pm
  • 1 hour 42 minutes
    Tyler Cowen - Hayek, Keynes, & Smith on AI, Animal Spirits, Anarchy, & Growth

    It was a great pleasure speaking with Tyler Cowen for the 3rd time.

    We discussed GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of all Time and Why Does it Matter?, especially in the context of how the insights of Hayek, Keynes, Smith, and other great economists help us make sense of AI, growth, animal spirits, prediction markets, alignment, central planning, and much more.

    The topics covered in this episode are too many to summarize. Hope you enjoy!

    Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple PodcastsSpotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

    Timestamps

    (0:00:00) - John Maynard Keynes

    (00:17:16) - Controversy

    (00:25:02) - Fredrick von Hayek

    (00:47:41) - John Stuart Mill

    (00:52:41) - Adam Smith

    (00:58:31) - Coase, Schelling, & George

    (01:08:07) - Anarchy

    (01:13:16) - Cheap WMDs

    (01:23:18) - Technocracy & political philosophy

    (01:34:16) - AI & Scaling



    Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe
    31 January 2024, 3:00 pm
  • 36 minutes 32 seconds
    Lessons from The Years of Lyndon Johnson by Robert Caro [Narration]

    This is a narration of my blog post, Lessons from The Years of Lyndon Johnson by Robert Caro.

    You read the full post here: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/lyndon-johnson

    Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future posts and episodes.



    Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe
    23 January 2024, 3:00 pm
  • 25 minutes 43 seconds
    Will scaling work? [Narration]

    This is a narration of my blog post, Will scaling work?.

    You read the full post here: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/will-scaling-work

    Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future posts and episodes.



    Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe
    19 January 2024, 3:25 pm
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