We’ll be getting into the biggest tv show of 2024, a celebrity road trip “will they or won’t they divorce” show which is just as big of a hot mess as it sounds like, rigged nationalist singing competitions, megacorp boy idol capitalism corrupting something as seemingly innocent as a farming reality show, and xinjiang-set tv hit drama.

Our guest today is Em who writes Active Faults, one of my favorite substacks that explores the China’s entertainment industry and celebrity fandom. It is a consistently dark read but one of my favorite discoveries this year. https://activefaults.substack.com/

Puttro music: one of those foreigners who showed up the Chinese singers in 歌手， China's 'The Voice" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMpnuYBcA_I

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Nathan Lambert of the excellent https://www.interconnects.ai/ newsletter and the Allen Institute joins the pod for a rundown of the biggest AI stories of this year and next. We also talk about what he's learned training advanced AI models at the Allen Institute.

Outtro Music: Young and Holtful by Young-Holt Unlimited, 1969. https://open.spotify.com/track/5am0dV7aB91Q6sWqIAuurA?autoplay=true

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Commerce released its much-anticipated chip export-control updates yesterday, December 2. But today's guests are unimpressed.

But are we right to have hoped for more? To discuss, I’m joined by Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis and Greg Allen from CSIS.

A disclaimer: We recorded this yesterday the same day the regs were released, and given their complexity our takes are inevitably provisional.

We get into:

• What’s in the new controls: high bandwidth memory, FDPR, and the Entity List.
• Why key assumptions in Biden’s approach to export controls limited
• How China’s stockpiling spree may have already rendered these new rules partially obsolete, and what policymakers can do about that going forward.
• The law-enforcement approach vs. the counterintelligence approach, and whether export controls should be a foreign-policy tool or simply a law-enforcement activity.
• How the new chip controls are like removing puzzle pieces just one at a time — and why that’s exactly what China wants.
• The “America First” rationale for domestic chip production.
• Why the Democrats’ regulatory design philosophy has favored massive complexity to the detriment of enforcement — and what the Trump administration might do differently going forward.

Outtro music:

From the Netherlands! Mensen by Josine Van Dalsum https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igRkp_03UHk

From Japan! Yadokari - Meiko Kaji https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJG2Wozor94

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Dylan Patel, Doug O'Laughlin, Jon from Asianometry and I all chat the biggest semiconductor stories of the year. We get into energy demands for datacenters, Intel, Samsung, Nvidia, SMIC, Huawei, Deepseek and the rise of ChatGPT.

Outtro music: Sabicas, Carcelera (Reflejo Andaluz) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2_nX21D8Go

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Few books have influenced me as much as the Makers of Modern Strategy series. The three volumes (published in 1942, 1986, and 2023) are indispensable to understanding statecraft, leadership, and the evolution of warfare across millennia.

The New Makers of Modern Strategy (2023) is a thousand pages long and analyzes strategy from ancient Greece to the Congo.

The man behind this behemoth collection is Hal Brands, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a returning ChinaTalk guest.

In our conversation, we discuss:

• The process for compiling such an ambitious collection of essays;
• Unique insights and new topics covered in the 2023 edition, including Tecumseh, Kabila in the Congo, and Strategies of Equilibrium in 17th Century France;
• Advice for reading the book effectively;
• Revolutions in military affairs, from the atom bomb to quantum computers.

For reference, you can compare the content of the three volumes with this spreadsheet, courtesy of Nicholas Welch.

Outtro music: When This Cruel War is Over (Civil War ballad by Hermes Nye) https://open.spotify.com/track/1Zjcz6B4PromuFFXMWu8hK?si=500b718d8361421b

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To discuss the Department of Justice’s new proposed rule on data security, we interviewed two brilliant guests from the ChinaTalk Hall of Fame — DOJ National Security Division attorneys Lee Licata and Devin DeBacker.

Before DOJ, Lee was an attorney at DHS and then CBP, while Devin was a partner at Kirkland & Ellis and then worked with the Office of White House Counsel. Today we’ll be discussing the DOJ’s new proposed rule on data security. 

We get into…

• DOJ’s plan to protect your data from foreign adversaries,
• How public comments have shaped the proposed rule since the last time we interviewed Lee and Devin,
• DOJ’s tools for enforcing corporate compliance,
• The differences between data security regulations, privacy laws, and export controls,
• Why some public comments get accepted and some get rejected,
• The DOJ playbook for assembling a dream team of talented bureaucrats.

Thanks to Nicholas Welch for hosting this interview!

Outtro music: Bad Boys (Theme from Cops) (Youtube link) + Everybody Loves the Sunshine (Takuya Kuroda) (YouTube)

Submit comments here.

Check out our last show about the DOJ's data security rule here.

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Antoine, aka 多多底料, is a French Mandarin teacher by day and a Chinese rap enthusiast by night. Today, he’s here with a setlist of his favorite hip hop tracks. His original songs can be found here. Bonne écoute!

Track 1: 芳草地 (The Fragrant Meadow) by DIGI GHETTO (艾志恒Asen/thomeboydontkill/mac ova seas/KIV/Mula Sakee/付思遥)

Track 2: 威远故事 (The Story of Weiyuan County) by GAI周延

Track 3: 变蓝 (Turning Blue) by 也是福 (Eddie Beatz) feat. PO8 and 喜辰晨

Track 4: 亚特兰蒂斯陷落 (Atlantis Surrenders) by 弗兰德斯坦/C-Low 

Track 5: 春雪采耳 (Ear Cleanse In The Spring Snow) by 施鑫文月 and 小老虎 (Lil Tiger)

Track 6: THE MESSAGE PT.2 by CREAM D and 艾热AIR

Track 7: 落幕 (Sunset) by Asen (feat. GALI, 堵琳Caroline)

Track 8: 囚 (Cage) by 李佳隆 (JelloRio)

Track 9: 恨与爱 (Hate and Love) by AThree 

Track 10: 不负责 (Why u blame on me?) by Capper and (ﾉI A I)ﾉ♡

Track 11: 危险派对 by 王以太

Links to all these songs can be found on the ChinaTalk Substack.

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ChinaTalk columnist Alexa Pan and Jake Newby of the China music substack Concrete Avalanche (https://jakenewby.substack.com/)

No election content whatsoever!

1. 'Hohhot Aquarium' - NarrowLaneAngel 窄巷天使

One of the stand-out acts from the Kind of Shoegaze Vol. 1 compilation focused on young Chinese bands that was released at the start of the year, NarrowLaneAngel formed in Inner Mongolia in 2023. In August of that year, they released an eponymous debut EP.

2. 'Limpid' - Forsaken Autumn

Based in Shanghai, Forsaken Autumn have been together since 2011, propelled by the talents of britlulu (who also founded the East Asia Shoegaze Festival) and singer Ecke Wu. Released at the tail-end of 2015, Forsaken Autumn’s record Whenere — dubbed “the Chinese Loveless” by one commenter on Bandcamp — is a classic in Chinese shoegaze circles.

3. 'Nostalgia' - Summer Daze

Founded in 2021, Summer Daze are another band who featured on the Kind of Shoegaze compilation series from Amemoyo. After a couple of early EPs, they've put out four new singles over the course of this year.

4. 'Firework' - The White Tulips

Xiamen music scene stalwart Chen Zhenchao (also known as Soda) has moved away from shoegaze into surf-rock and dream- and city-pop territory with his more recent projects, but in 2015 he and his band The White Tulips delivered the decidedly shoegazey Fondle. It’s re-release on vinyl in 2021 was a nod to its status as a Chinese shoegaze classic.

5. 'Float' - Chocland.doc 巧克力文件岛

Hebei five piece Chocland.doc apparently first came together at a former residence of Eileen Chang, but are seemingly yet to write a song based on Lust, Caution or any of her other novels. "Of course, the name of the band has no meaning," they say, "what you understand is what you understand."

6. 'Is your dream still out-focus' - Lunacid

Another one of China's newer shoegaze acts, Lunacid were formed in 2023. The trio hail from Changsha and also featured on the Kind of Shoegaze compilation series.

7. '迷航' ('Dazedtrek') - 哲学思潮 (Philosophy Currents)

Formed just last year, 哲学思潮 hail from Nanning in Guangxi province, near the border with Vietnam. Their debut album Dazedtrek was recently made available on Bandcamp. 

8. 'Detached' - The Numen

Shanghai-based quartet The Numen met on arts review platform Douban and have pursued a shared love of shoegaze and indie-rock since the summer of 2023. They namecheck shoegaze greats such as My Bloody Valentine's Kevin Shields among their influences. 

9. 'Cat Tenant (Summer)' - Baby Formula

Formed by “three boring people with no expectations for the unknown journey ahead”, Beijing band Baby Formula came seemingly out of nowhere, dropped an impressive eponymous debut album in the autumn of 2013, and then promptly disappeared again. Still, their music continues to resonate over a decade later.

10. 'star' - Dear Eloise

As frontman for long-running band PK14, Yang Haisong is one of the godfathers of Chinese post-punk. Yet he’s also played a pivotal role in bringing more experimental, noisy, and yes, shoegazey sounds to the fore. Formed in 2007 with his wife (and one-time PK14 bassist) Sun Xia, Dear Eloise have released a string of atmospheric records over the years and remain an influential act in China.

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Why did the Soviet Union collapse? Which lessons from Cold War history are relevant for China’s future?

To discuss the successes, failures, and strategies of Soviet leaders, ChinaTalk interviewed Yakov Feygin. Feygin is the author of Building a Ruin: The Cold War Politics of Soviet Economic Reform, which examines how various Soviet leaders, institutions, and economists attempted to boost Soviet growth and national power. 

Co-hosting today is Jon Sine, writer of the Cogitations substack.

We discuss:

• The strengths and limitations of the Stalinist economic model,
• Khrushchev’s shift to “peaceful competition” with capitalism,
• Alternative policy paths that could have saved the Soviet Union,
• How technological optimism shaped Soviet reform efforts, inspiring the CCP in the process,
• Parallels between the institutions of the Soviet Union and those of contemporary China,
• The battle between political scientists and historians when analyzing the political economy of authoritarian states.

Outro music: Building a Ruin - Skyclad (Youtube link)

Links to all the books and papers referenced in this show are available on the ChinaTalk substack.

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林宏文是《晶片島上的光芒》一書的作者,這本書深入探討了台積電的歷史、管理方法和國際角色。作為台灣最資深的半導體記者之一、林宏文以其三十多年的行業經驗,為讀者呈現了一個全面而生動的台灣半導體產業發展故事。

訪談中、主要討論了以下幾個關鍵話題:

• 台積電的創立背景及其在全球半導體產業中的獨特定位
• 台灣政府在推動半導體產業發展中的角色,特別是工研院和科學園區的貢獻
• 台積電的管理模式,包括研發與製造部門的平衡以及人才培養策略
• 台灣半導體產業的國際競爭力,尤其是與三星等競爭對手的比較
• 台積電在全球地緣政治中的角色,以及"矽盾"這一概念的由來和影響
• AI時代對半導體產業的影響,特別是對記憶體和邏輯晶片整合的需求
• 台灣與美國在看待國際關係上的差異,以及這種差異對台灣國際戰略的影響

Special thanks to the host of this interview, Arrian Ebrahimi of the Chip Capitols substack. Cohosted by ChinaTalk editors Nicholas Welch and Lily Ottinger. 

Outtro music: Right Here Waiting, by Richard Marx. Youtube Link.

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Welcome back to part two of our interview with Yasheng Huang 黄亚生, the author of The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline.

We cover a lot of ground in this two-hour installment. During the first hour, we discuss…

• The aspects of imperial China’s governance Mao chose to embrace, and those he chose to abandon,
• The factors enabling Mao’s radical policies compared to imperial rulers,
• Why China was able to grow so much faster than India, despite the setbacks of the Cultural Revolution,
• Statistical approaches for evaluating the effectiveness of autocratic development models,
• China’s economic reforms and rural development policies in the 1980s,
• How the events of 1989 permanently altered China’s trajectory,
• Whether the rise of Xi Jinping was inevitable,

In the second hour, we discuss...

• The Steelman case for why China needed a leader like Xi Jinping,
• What sets Xi apart from his predecessors,
• Succession challenges and the importance of term limits in authoritarian states,
• Why engagement with China failed to produce political liberalization,
• How the US could have better leveraged economic relations with China,
• Creative approaches to human rights advocacy in China.

Outro music: Nothing to My Name (一无所有) by Cui Jian (崔健) (Youtube Link)

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