Reflecting the chaotic and fast-moving nature of the times, another podcast of two parts. In the first, looking at various issues of the week, from Trump's apparent threat to increase sanctions on Russia to a spy case in the UK.

In the second half, I look at two recent books, Political Legitimacy and Traditional Values in Putin's Russia, edited by Helge Blakkisrud & Pål Kolstø (Edinburgh UP) and Jeremy Morris’s Everyday Politics in Russia. From Resentment to Resistance, (Bloomsbury) and use them to spin off a discussion about legitimacy in modern Russia.

The piece ‘Recycling to resist,’ I mentioned by Alexandrina Vanke, is in the Sociological Review here.

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Much as I would love not to have to keep talking about Trump, it's inevitable that I cover the extraordinary events of this week: Trump as King Lear, demanding obsequious flattery, Zelensky perhaps ought not to have made the trip to DC. So where now?

And in the second half, the Russian police in crisis, demoralised, under-strength and with corruption again on the rise. Another very real success story of early Putinism, police reform, being devoured by the war and late Putinism.

The video of the Global Strategy Forum event I mentioned is here, the Sunday Times article (paywalled) is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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In a more-freeform-than usual episode, I consider the aftermath of the Munich Security Conference, why Trump is such a Putin fanboy (more about being a wannabe strongman than because of any kompromat), and what this means for peace in Ukraine. The summary? There is no deal on Ukraine, and we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, but there is at least a chance for some kind of a deal. Maybe.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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As Russia-watchers, we know that Russia is not just Russian, or Russian Orthodox, but there is also a glib assumption that to be Muslim or otherwise a minority is to be depressed, repressed, and suppressed. So how to explain Tatarstan, one of the few regions where the titular nationality is a majority (54% Tatar, 54% Muslim), yet one which seems to work well enough within the Russian Federation?

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Originally one of the 'Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas' bonuses for Patrons, in this short pod I explore whether, when the soldiers come home, Russia is likely to experience a problem of a dispossessed and alienated generation akin to the 'Afghan Syndrome' which faced the veterans of the Soviet Afghan war. Sadly, the answer is probably so.

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The Russian response to Tucker Carlson's claim that the Biden administration tried to assassinate Putin has to a large extent been driven by political expediency -- it makes a great propaganda narrative -- but there does seem to be more to it than that? Why is modern Russia, from Putin down, so prone to seeing the world through a conspiratorial lens, everything determined by behind-the-scenes forces and shadowy secret masters? And what does this mean for policy? Does Russia really still own Alaska, was COVID brewed in Georgia, is Putin kept alive by Orthodox rituals? (Spoiler alert: no. no and no)

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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How else, frankly, to title an episode which covers Trump and Putin, the CIA's Ukrainian cooperation, Russo-Iranian and -Indian relations, Belarus, and four books on Crimea's history?

The Vlad Vexler commentary I mentioned is here. The Moscow Times article on Russian-Indian relations is here.

The four books I cover are:

The Eurasian Steppe by Warwick Ball (Edinburgh University Press, 2021)
'A Seditious and Sinister Tribe': the Crimean Tatars and their Khanate by Donald Rayfield (Reaktion, 2024)
Crimea: a history by Neil Kent (Hurst, 2024)
Crimean Quagmire: Tolstoi, Russell and the Birth of Modern Warfare by Gregory Carleton (Hurst, 2024)

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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The UK has signed a 'One Hundred Years Partnership Agreement' with Ukraine -- what's really involved under this grandiose title, and what does it show us about the wider challenges (and some missed opportunities) for supporting Kyiv?

The texts are available here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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We pundits have done more than our fair share speculating on whether, how, when and with what consequences there could be peace or a ceasefire in Ukraine, but instead it seems a good time to see what various research projects suggest about what ordinary Russians and Ukrainians think. This is something that is actually harder to ascertain than one might assume, but it important, not least for conditioning the decisions the respective governments may make.

The various articles and surveys I cite are:

Friedrich Ebert Stiftung : https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/wien/21742.pdf
Russian Field : https://russianfield.com/svo16
Gallup : https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx
Meduza : https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/01/09/we-expected-the-war-to-end
PS Lab : https://publicsociologylab.com/en
New Yorker : https://www.newyorker.com/news/a-reporter-at-large/do-russians-really-support-the-war-in-ukraine
Vedomosti : https://www.vedomosti.ru/society/articles/2024/12/25/1083523-vnimanie-cherez-silu
Ukrainska Pravda : https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/articles/2025/01/9/7492626/
Russia Post : https://russiapost.info/politics/ceasefire 

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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Outright prediction may be a mug's game, but what are some of the people and processes I will be watching in 2025?

For those who get lost in the flow, they are:

PERSONALIA

·       Elvira Nabiullina

·       Ramzan Kadyrov 

·       Alexander Khinshtein 

·       Alexei Dyumin 

·       Sergei Naryshkin 

·       Nikolai Patrushev 

·       (Not Mikhail Mishustin/Anton Vaino)

INSTITS

·       Security Council 

·       FSB 

·       State Council

PROCESSES

·       ‘Covert federalisation’ 

·       Lateral alliances 

·       End of party pseudo-politics? 

·       Rise of SVO generation? 

·       Labour shortage 

·       Deviancy 

POLICIES

·       Shadow War 

·       Africa/North Africa 

·       India

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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Sabotage under the Baltic, a grudging apology, a possible attack on a Russian cargo ship, firebombing ATMs, energy blackmail in Moldova... what connects them beyond a sense that, having changed his rules of engagement abroad in 2024, Putin may find this coming to bite him in 2025. Either way, it looks like the coming year will be a bumpy one, to say the least.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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