Risk of Ruin

Half Kelly Media

Audio documentaries about risk takers.

  • 1 hour 35 minutes
    Movers

    Curtis, Phil, and Reilly are professional sports bettors that provide the valuable service of getting down for originating groups. They are logistics providers in the gambling world. They talk about starting as casino APs, finding sports, and having several hundred thousand dollars taken from them by a  sportsbook.

    Find Reilly on X. https://twitter.com/ValleyBlitz_15

    Support the show credit card links: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YTMUqap_Z0D9832cOl5wYxUs16Byr6xx-iAZzrRL3VU/edit?usp=sharing

    Email us: risk of ruin pod at gmail
    Follow on X: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

    4 March 2024, 12:00 pm
  • 52 minutes 21 seconds
    The Character Building Side Effect of Losing

    Jason Strasser is the co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Caption Partners. While in college Jason became a high stakes poker player and was making $100k/month before he left competitive poker for Wall Street. Today he generates his edge trading options, looking for one-off events where the volatility of the options are mispriced by algorithms.

    Follow Jason on Twitter: https://twitter.com/strassa2

    Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmail
    Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

    26 December 2023, 11:00 pm
  • 49 minutes 6 seconds
    Waiting on Value

    Evan Tindell is a former poker player and now is the CIO of Bireme Capital. He talks about how he got into the market, and also his value investing based process for finding investments.

    Follow Evan on Twitter:
    https://twitter.com/evantindell

    Bireme Capital Blog Post on Meta:
    https://www.biremecapital.com/blog/pounding-the-table-on-meta

    Risk of Ruin Podcast Newsletter:
    https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/

    Email the show risk of ruin pod at gmail.

    Follow the show on Twitter:
    https://twitter.com/halfkelly

    26 December 2023, 12:00 am
  • 55 minutes 27 seconds
    Zero, by Way of a Hundred

    John Hempton runs Bronte Capital, which generates its excess returns primarily through shorting fraudulent companies. John walks through a hypothetical short, explaining how they find it, how they size positions, and the kinds of returns that can be expected. He also discusses his shorts of Valeant Pharmaceutical and Wirecard.

    John Hempton on Twitter: https://twitter.com/John_Hempton
    John's Blog: http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/
    Netflix documentary on Valeant: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7909184/

    Email the show: [email protected]
    Follow the show on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

    25 December 2023, 3:00 am
  • 53 minutes 32 seconds
    Life's Too Short

    Marc Cohodes made a living exposing fraudulent companies, and profiting when their stock prices collapsed. But the life of a short seller is spent on a high wire because executives willing to engage in fraud don't play by the rules when their freedom is at stake. Marc tells the stories of the adversity he's faced holding public companies accountable.

    Marc recounts the war stories from his shorts of iomega, TCBY, Lernout & Hauspie, Novastar Financial, Jos. A Bank, Bally Manufacturing, Direct Focus, and more.

    Follow Marc on Twitter: @alderlaneeggs
    Marc's Mimedx Website: http://petiteparkerthebarker.com/

    Email the show: [email protected]
    Twitter: @halfkelly

    24 December 2023, 1:00 am
  • 1 hour 1 minute
    Credit Card Arbitrage

    Matt writes the blog "Miles Earn and Burn" which stands alone in the credit card space. He has no ads on the site, and he writes about advanced strategies that don't make it into the mainstream travel blog world. The post that got me interested in having Matt as a guest said basically: go to your local credit union and see if there's anything that you might be able to profit from. In the advantage play world that would be called scouting. In the manufactured spend world it's known as probing. https://milesearnandburn.com/index.php/2023/09/29/taking-a-stroll-to-the-local-financial-district/

    Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmail
    Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

    17 December 2023, 12:00 am
  • 58 minutes 29 seconds
    You Can't Beat the Lottery*

    Mr. Doppy became an advantage player hustling the video poker game Ultimate X. Since then he's gone after online sports books, credit card points, and also a state lottery.

    Mr. Doppy's Twitter account: https://twitter.com/MrDoppy

    Support the show links: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YTMUqap_Z0D9832cOl5wYxUs16Byr6xx-iAZzrRL3VU/edit

    Email the show: Risk of ruin pod at gmail dot com
    Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

    25 October 2023, 1:00 am
  • 1 hour 46 minutes
    Rocket Man

    In 2022 Elon Musk signed an agreement to purchase Twitter. Then all hell broke loose. This episode is about that merger, the investors that traded it, and the most valuable Twitter follow to come out of the saga.

    Guests:
    Chris DeMuth - Rangeley Capital
    https://twitter.com/ChrisDeMuthJr
    Evan Tindell - Bireme Capital
    https://twitter.com/evantindell
    Chance, Editor in Chief of The Chancery Daily
    https://twitter.com/chancery_daily

    Media Clips Used:
    Tesla 3rd Quarter Earnings Call
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_SOWBDCQnM
    David Faber, CNBC
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycx4b9-2nFU
    Yahoo News, Biden Administration Reviewing Twitter Deal
    https://www.yahoo.com/video/u-weighs-security-review-musks-010913575.html
    Carolyn Berger Appearance on CNBC
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/07/13/twitter-is-in-a-very-strong-position-to-be-on-the-winning-side-says-ret-delaware-supreme-court-justice.html
    Elon Musk Sold Zip2
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9mczdODqzo
    Peter Thiel Comments on Elon
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y11uX8X6iz4
    Tesla Shareholder Meeting
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49e7LrxS3FQ&feature=emb_title
    SEC Sues Musk Over Funding Secured Tweets
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjqp7LTb2B4&t=56s

    20 October 2023, 6:00 am
  • 1 hour 24 minutes
    The Mayfair Revisited

    Erik Seidel and Steve Zolotow were among the gamblers to come out of the storied Mayfair Club in New York City. The Mayfair inspired some of the locations in Rounders, and is also known for the breadth of success that its players have had in poker. The episode covers the history of the club, its bridge and backgammon roots, and the careers of Erik and Steve.

    Special thanks to Larry Bernstein.

    Email the show: Risk of ruin pod at gmail
    Twitter: @halfkelly

    Follow Erik on Twitter: @Erik_Seidel

    20 October 2023, 1:00 am
  • 1 hour 2 minutes
    A Family Business

    Jim and Dan Pasko talk about their father and son sportsbetting operation. The Paskos use math to find positive EV bets like correlated parlays and player props. Jim Pasko has been a professional gambler for almost his entire adult life, first starting as a backgammon player during the heyday of that game. Dan joined him in professional gambling when they found opportunities with the early internet sportsbooks.

    Follow Dan on Twitter: @dan_pasko
    Follow the show on Twitter: @halfkelly
    Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmail.

    18 October 2023, 12:00 am
  • 47 minutes 8 seconds
    The Game-like Aspect

    Kai talks about leaving the work world behind in favor of early retirement, and the part time pursuit of bank and credit card bonuses. He also discusses Lean FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early) and how churning bonuses fits into his FIRE plan.

    Kai's podcast: The Daily Churn
    https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily-churn/id1577648675

    Email the show: [email protected]
    Twitter: @halfkelly

    16 October 2023, 6:00 pm
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