As part of our wider project examining the armed forces of Central Asia, the research team sat down with experts from government, military, and academia. We brought together all of our findings and research and wargamed some of the region's most likely and plausible scenarios, not because we think war between these states is imminent, but because it is a useful way to gain better insights into how these militaries function and the challenges they would face. The format highlighted several key issues, including drivers such as the impact of lacking sufficient field trucks, unequal aerial capabilities, or the geography of the country forcing invading forces into a single narrow pocket, each of which severely limits the options available to any invading force.

Across all of our wargames, we selected three of the most interesting scenarios to examine here on The Red Line, exploring three key regional conflicts, the most likely triggers for those conflicts, and how prepared each of these states are for war against a peer rival. To guide us through the findings and their implications for defence dynamics in Central Asia, we are joined by this week's special guest for part two of our mini-series, The Armed Forces of Central Asia.

On the panel this week: 

• Derek Bisaccio (Forecast International)

Intro - 00:00

PART I - 03:57

PART II - 1:02:23

PART III - 1:45:30

Outro - 2:10:09

Read the Tajikistan Chapter of the Report here: https://oxussociety.org/projects/the-armed-forces-of-central-asia/

Check out the mapping project here: https://oxussociety.org/viz/military-units/

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The evolving relationship between Armenia and Russia has seen dramatic shifts in recent years, particularly in the wake of Armenia's devastating defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. Once heavily reliant on Russian military support, Armenia now finds itself questioning the reliability of this partnership. As Russia grapples with its own military commitments in Ukraine and its shrinking influence in the South Caucasus, Armenia has begun to explore alternative alliances, deepening ties with countries like France and India. But with Russian troops still stationed in Armenia and economic dependencies persisting, can Armenia truly pivot away from Moscow's orbit? We ask our panel of experts about the complexities of Armenia's balancing act between historical alliances and new geopolitical realities.

On the panel this week:

- Oleysa Vartanyan (Caucasus Analyst)

- Laurence Broers (Chatham House)

- Thomas De Waal (Carnegie Europe)

Intro - 00:00

PART I - 05:24

PART II - 27:36

PART III - 58:08

Outro - 1:21:38

Read the Armed Forces of Central Asia Report: https://oxussociety.org/projects/the-armed-forces-of-central-asia/

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Conscription is a complex and multifaceted issue, influencing not only a nation's defence capabilities but also its economy and political landscape. With countries as diverse as Denmark, to the DRC, from Taiwan to Tajikistan, and even Austria to Armenia, having all adopted conscription. However, as different as each of these nations are, each of them is now facing unique challenges, constraints, impacts and benefits from the practice. So what are the true economic advantages and drawbacks of conscription, should countries like the US, the UK and Germany be looking at its reimplementation, and can it serve as an effective deterrent in modern conflicts? We ask our panel of experts:

On the panel this week:

- Paul O'Neill (RUSI)

- Pvt. Gona (Conscript in the Finnish Army)

- Eric Crampton (New Zealand Initiative)

Intro - 00:00

PART 1 - 05:51

PART 2 - 28:47

PART 3 - 43:13

Outro - 56:39

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Chinese private security companies (PSCs) are beginning to expand their influence in the global security market, with thousands of these companies now operating in over 40 countries. Despite legal restrictions preventing them from being armed, these firms are increasingly finding ways to circumvent such regulations. This raises critical questions: Will China leverage these companies to bypass international rules, engage in grey-zone combat, or establish footholds for future military bases abroad? We delve into these issues with our expert panel.

On the panel this week:

- Carl Peterson (Militant Wire)

- Nick Thompson (Anduril)

- Alessandro Arduino (King’s College London)

Intro - 00:00

PART 1 - 04:38

PART 2 - 30:11

PART 3 - 45:35

Outro - 59:02

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Venezuela has been thrust into chaos following the recent election, leaving President Maduro, the opposition, and the military cornered. Years of escalating tensions with Guyana over the Essequibo region have reached a critical point, risking both the strength of the Venezuelan military and the possibility of a broader regional conflict. This episode examines the buildup to potential war, how the election has intensified these events, and whether the Venezuelan military can fulfil Maduro's promise of forcefully annexing Guyana? We ask our panel of experts.

On the panel this week:

- Kejal Vyas (Wall Street Journal)

- Gisela Salim-Peyer (The Atlantic)

- Evan Ellis (US Army War College)

Intro - 00:00

PART 1 - 06:08

PART 2 - 30:44

PART 3 - 45:37

Outro - 1:14:47

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As the dust settles on what has turned out to be South Africa's most crucial election since 1994, the nation finds itself standing on a knife's edge. Persistent issues have continued to escalate, leaving the country more politically divided than ever before. Now, with an unexpected and unlikely political alliance at the helm, South Africa faces a deep period of uncertainty. Given the current economic trends, the country has only a narrow window of five years to reverse its trajectory. With the clock ticking, can this coalition implement the necessary changes to steer South Africa back towards stability and prosperity, or will the erosion continue, paving the way for more extreme parties and policies? Will this new alliance rekindle a national renaissance and begin a new chapter for South Africa? We ask our panel of experts.

On the panel this week:

- Sisonke Msimang (Writer and Activist)

- Martin Plaut (Institute of Commonwealth Studies)

- Carien Du Plessis (The Africa Report)

Intro - 00:00

PART 1 - 02:59

PART 2 - 33:15

PART 3 - 58:52

Outro - 1:19:44

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As the world pivots towards a green energy future, the dominance of rare earth elements has never been more crucial. Yet, while the West has been preoccupied with other geopolitical challenges, China has quietly taken control of this vital industry. This episode delves into the strategic manoeuvres that allowed China to secure a near-monopoly on rare earth production and the consequential vulnerabilities faced by Western economies. By focusing on technological advancements and resource acquisition, China has positioned itself as the gatekeeper of essential materials for modern technology and renewable energy. Has the West, with its divided attention, failed to anticipate this shift and what are the strategic missteps that led to this imbalance? We ask our panel of experts:

On the panel this week:

- Fabian Villalobos (RAND)

- Theresa Sabonis-Helf (Georgetown Uni)

- Ariel Cohen (Atlantic Council)

Intro - 00:00

PART 1 - 02:42

PART 2 - 27:58

PART 3 - 47:28

Outro - 1:00:15

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In the inaugural episode of our new mini-series, we dive deep into the military landscape of Central Asia, starting with a spotlight on Tajikistan. This first episode uncovers the region's convoluted command structures and the unique challenges faced by the national armed forces operating here. Why does the Tajik army operate the way it does? What hidden factors influence their command, doctrines, and equipment? Our expert panel will unravel these complexities, providing captivating insights into the evolving dynamics of Tajikistan's military and its increasingly pivotal role in Central Asian politics. Don't miss this deep dive into the heart of Central Asian defence strategies.

On the panel this week:

- Bruce Pannier (Central Asia Journalist)

- Derek Bisaccio (Forecast International)

- Katie Putz (The Diplomat)

- Steve Swerdlow (USC)

- Edward Lemon (The Oxus Society)

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As economic sanctions continue to tighten their grip on Russia, the nation is forced to seek assistance from whoever it can, turning to China not out of mutual interest but as a necessity. Yet, this support comes at a steep price, heightening concerns in Moscow that it's inadvertently solidifying a new, skewed power dynamic. As China capitalizes on Russia's vulnerabilities, one has to wonder if this is merely business or if there's a deeper play to settle historical grievances. Can Russia untangle itself from this precarious alliance? What are the obstacles in broadening their so-called "no-limits" friendship, and what implications will these have on future Sino-Russian energy deals? We ask our panel of experts:

On the panel this week:

- Keir Giles (Chatham House)

- Gavin Wilde (CEIP)

- Temur Umarov (CEIP)

Intro - 00:00

PART 1 - 04:07

PART 2 - 23:47

PART 3 - 38:47

Outro - 58:10

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As President Prabowo Subianto prepares to enter the presidency, the Indonesian military stands at a crucial juncture, navigating both traditional and emerging defence challenges. With Prabowo's extensive military background and his previous five years at the helm of the armed forces, this term is particularly poised to potentially reshape strategies around procurement, international agreements, and even the core tenets of the Indonesian military itself. This week, we delve into the evolving dynamics within the Indonesian military as it grapples with modernisation and regional security pressures, and examine the potential shifts and tough decisions likely to fall onto his desk during the next five years. So why is this term likely the most important for the military? What do Prabowo's purchases and policy shifts tell us about his future policies, and will Indonesia finally take its place as a significant military power within Southeast Asia? We ask our panel of experts:

On the panel this week:

- John Blaxland (ANU) 

- Natalie Sambhi (Verve Research) 

- Collin Koh (RSIS)

Intro - 00:00

PART 1 - 02:03

PART 2 - 18:47

PART 3 - 44:05

Outro - 1:03:10

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Tensions are on the rise between San Marino and Italy, revealing a potential crisis on the Italian Peninsula that many analysts are missing. This situation, seemingly minor, hints at deep-seated unrest that could destabilize the region. We delve into the nuances of this brewing conflict, urging a reevaluation of its possible impact on European stability. Through expert insights, we aim to uncover the undercurrents of this overlooked crisis, highlighting the urgency of recognizing and preparing for the ramifications of this unfolding discord.

On the panel this week:

- James Ker-Lindsay (LSE)

Intro - 00:00

PART 1 - 01:30

Outro - 14:37

RELEASED: APRIL 1st 2024.

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