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In this episode, Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent GDP figures, their implications for the economy and property market, and the expected trends for 2025, including covering the final monthly chart pack of the year.  

They analyse the government's financial update, the impact of interest rates on the housing market, and the current state of inflation and rental prices. 

The conversation highlights the conflicting forces at play in the market and offers insights into future trends for investors and homeowners alike.

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In this episode, Nick and Kelvin review the New Zealand property market's performance in 2024 and discuss expectations for 2025. 

They analyse key statistics from the 'Best of the Best' report, highlighting trends in property sales, rental yields, and the impact of interest rates. 

The conversation also covers the changing dynamics of first home buyers and investors in the market, as well as broader economic indicators such as migration data and retail spending. 

In this conversation, Kelvin and Nick discuss the current economic indicators and their implications for the real estate market, particularly focusing on Auckland's housing performance and the outlook for new builds in regional markets (thanks to some listener questions).

They analyse GDP trends, the impact of interest rates, and the performance of new townhouses compared to older properties. The discussion also touches on the broader economic recovery and the factors influencing regional markets.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the current state of the property market, highlighting a continued decline in home values (according to the CoreLogic Home Value Index) and a holding pattern in the market. 

They explore insights from the construction industry, noting a potential bottoming out of dwelling consents and the impact of lower interest rates. 

The conversation shifts to loan terms, revealing a trend towards shorter fixed rates and floating loans.

Looking ahead, they emphasize the importance of upcoming data releases, particularly net migration figures, and keep an eye out for the best of the best report, live on Thursday. 

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In this episode Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent OCR decision, its implications for mortgage rates, and the current state of the lending market.

They analyze the latest lending data, highlighting increased activity among investors and first-home buyers.

The conversation shifts to the broader economic landscape, examining consumer confidence and retail sales trends.

They also delve into the impact of debt-to-income restrictions on the housing market and consider future economic recovery strategies, emphasizing the need for both monetary and fiscal support.

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In this episode, Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson discuss the Reserve Bank's recent decision to cut the official cash rate by 0.5%, bringing it down to 4.25%. They analyse the implications of this decision on economic forecasts, including unemployment rates and house price growth. The conversation highlights the expected trajectory of the OCR, the impact of lower mortgage rates on the housing market, and the broader economic context, including global factors influencing inflation and growth.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson discuss the current state of the property market, focusing on the anticipated OCR cut, buyer classification, and economic indicators. They explore the dynamics between first-home buyers and mortgaged investors, the challenges faced by movers, and the broader economic context influencing the Reserve Bank's decisions. The conversation highlights the slow recovery expected for the economy and property market, emphasising the need for fiscal support alongside monetary policy adjustments.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, Nick Goodall interviews Mike Bloy, a mortgage advisor from Loan Market. 

They discuss Mike's journey into mortgage advising, the daily responsibilities of a broker, the importance of building relationships with lenders, and the challenges faced in the current market. 

Mike shares insights on navigating the second tier and non-bank lenders, as well as strategies for overcoming obstacles in providing excellent service to clients. 

In this conversation, Mike and Nick discuss the intricacies of navigating the real estate market, focusing on strategies for home buyers, the importance of building trust and setting expectations, and insights into current market dynamics and interest rates. 

They explore the changing behaviours of borrowers, particularly first-time buyers, and the emotional aspects of property purchasing. 

The discussion culminates in predictions for the future of the market and the role of brokers in guiding clients through the process.

Contact Mike https://adviser.loanmarket.co.nz/mike-bloy 

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick Goodall and chief economist Kelvin Davidson discuss the latest trends in the property market, including insights from the Pain and Gain report, current sales volumes, and the impact of economic indicators on consumer spending and the rental market. They also explore the cautious borrowing behavior of consumers in light of recent interest rate changes and provide forecasts for the upcoming economic landscape.

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After a quick run through the release of the CoreLogic First Home Buyer Report for Q3, Nick and Kelvin ponder the potential impact of the US election result and Donald Trump's return to the Whitehouse.

Then, there's the relatively inconsequential (to RBNZ's liking) Financial Stability Report to digest as well as the important official Labour Market statistics for Q3, which were better than expected on the surface but a bit of devil in the detail to be mindful of. 

There were also some very interesting changes in the terms being chosen by mortgage holders in September to analyse. 

Plus, how about those All Blacks?!

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After running through the highlights of the latest CoreLogic Home Value Index results for October, Nick and Kelvin delve into all the relevant data, assessing the state of our economy and business sector.

There's filled jobs data, highlighting the weakness across the labour market, detailed by @MusicalChairs14 on a twitter thread and discussed by the guys. 

Kelvin also took the time to delve into the latest release from the Xero Small Business Insights showing ongoing declines in sales and increases in firms downsizing their workforce.

Things don't look great from a business perspective, however there's reason for optimism when analysing the ANZ business confidence survey, in particular expectations of future activity and inflation.

A lot to take on board, and that's without considering the detail within each of the above releases when it comes to the construction industry, alongside signs building consents may be at or approaching a respectable trough.

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Coming to you prior to the long Labour Weekend, Nick and Kelvin review all the property and lending data from the week.

Starting with a focus on property investors, following the release of the CoreLogic Monthly Chart Pack where Kelvin highlighted the upwards trend in sales to multiple property owners, as well as the RBNZ lending data showing investors taking on a greater share of lending above 65% LVR.

The other (unexpected) meaty piece of content to get stuck into was the Reserve Bank Governor's speech in the US, which Nick reviews and picks out a few quotes to help guide expectations for the next OCR review (and MPS) on November 27. Is a 75 basis point cut really a possibility?

The rest of the round up includes other insights from the chart pack (first home buyers) and lending data (interest only lending), the NZ Activity Index for September, rounding out Q3 in anticipation of official GDP data (in about 6 weeks!) and a surprise hit to consumer confidence.

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