This week we check back to see what first home buyers have been up to, including detailing our Q1 First Home Buyer Report and April's buyer classification data.

Kelvin also details the stats of how long borrowers are fixing for, showing the short term is still favoured, though borrowers should definitely do some forward projections of what they're expecting or hoping for when the rate comes up next.

Then, it's a look ahead to busy week ahead, which includes a special live podcast event, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association on Tuesday 14 May. Use the code NICKANDKEL to get your free tickets.

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After the short reactionary pod for both the RBNZ Financial Stability Review (FSR), which was pretty stock-standard, and the Q1 labour market stats - which were a little more interesting, this week's pod is shorter than it otherwise would have been. 

First topic of conversation is the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) data, which provided further more compelling evidence of a struggling housing market, particularly in Auckland (to Nick's surprise). 

With more time to digest the labour market stats, Nick then states the potential impact it might have on the OCR later in the year before Kelvin rounds up the underwhelming business confidence survey insights and building consents data. 

And what of Capital Economics' prediction for the Cash Rate in Aussie to see another lift this month? If true what does it say for the RBNZ's approach to "higher, sooner, faster and for longer", when it comes to the OCR here in NZ?

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Hot off the press, Nick and (a travelling) Kelvin catch up to quickly give their take on the just-released Financial Stability Report (FSR) from the Reserve Bank and official Labour Market stats for Q1 2024 from Stats NZ.

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One for the hopeful first home buyers

In this guest special, Nick speaks to Geri Fraser and Heiko Jonkers from Westpac. Geri is the Product lead for Housing and Heiko the Social and Affordable Housing Guru!

The main topics of interest discuss are the shared equity and leasehold options which are often misunderstood or simply not known about. Listen in to hear about what these options are and how Westpac have dedicated considerable commitment to ensure more New Zealanders can take that first step into the housing market. 

This includes understanding the international experiences and lessons learned to bring unique opportunities to life and how local councils, Government agencies and Iwi provide support for those prospective buyers to make their first purchase a reality.

As always the key is to speak to someone in the know and the Westpac first home loans page is a great start with plenty of passionate mobile mortgage managers keen to pass on their knowledge and help navigate what is so often a daunting process and huge life decision.

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There’s always plenty to talk about in the property market, but this week’s discussion basically sets the scene for a big week of data and announcements which could potentially mean a meaty pod next Monday!

The guys start by discussing the latest Buyer Classification data, which showed that first home buyers (FHBs) remained a key presence in March, and that also ties in to the latest mortgage lending figures from the Reserve Bank. Low deposit lending remains relatively restricted – certainly well under the maximum speed limits – but FHBs are still making good use of the system.

Attention then turns to the next few days …. CoreLogic House Price Index for April set to go public on Wednesday, just before the Financial Stability Report at 9am the same day, and the Q1 labour market figures at 10:45. Could the FSR finally detail the rules for debt to income ratio caps? On the labour market, the unemployment rate has probably risen further in Q1, but it might be about more labour supply, rather than mass job losses.

There's some great stuff in this week's episode, but also brace yourselves for a lot to talk about next week!

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Despite last week's well-received reactionary pod to the latest CPI inflation data, Nick and Kelvin can't help but dig a bit deeper into the data to get a steer on where things, in particular the OCR, are going. 

Other topics this week include the CoreLogic monthly chart pack, which focussed on borrowers preference to fix their mortgages short as well as the patchy nature of this recovery. 

That patchiness, and arguably weakness was backed up by the release of the REINZ index and sales tracking. 

On the flip side of all the negativity, Kelvin reports that early calcs from the NZAC indicate we may have re-exited the recession, but we all know high net migration (new data on that front too) has a large part to play in that too.

Lastly, there's a mention of the CCCFA announcement - not much detail to analyse and even less impact likely, due to high interest rates being the key constraint on funding lines right now. 

Check out the monthly video and Kelvin's appearance on Tova O'Brien's Stuff podcast.

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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released CPI inflation data.

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After quickly passing over the latest OCR decision from the RBNZ and one more construction release to add to last week's construction heavy chat, Nick and Kelvin delve into the current and future rental market.

There's rental price change to discuss, the reversal of some tenancy laws and the latest buyer classification data to assist.

Add in a bit on the economy and inflation ahead of the Q1 CPI data out this week and you've got a comprehensive review of the market. All in less than 40 mins. 

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The dominant theme this week is construction – from the Cordell Construction Cost Index showing subdued cost growth to start 2024, through to new dwelling consents in February (still falling), to Stats NZ’s experimental dataset looking at completion timeframes and the number of code compliance certificates issued (dwelling completions) – we have it all!

Not only that, but the Government also announced its intention to allow more imported building products to be used in NZ dwellings, with the aim of controlling cost pressures.

The guys also cover off last week’s CoreLogic House Price Index for March, and filled jobs data for February – both releases were a little mixed.

It’s another busy one this week too, with more mortgage lending data due, along with CoreLogic’s Buyer Classification figures and Stats NZ rent figures for March. The Reserve Bank will top it off with another cash rate decision on Wednesday, which is likely to be no change at 5.5%.

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Coming to you on Easter Monday, Nick and Kelvin catch up to discuss the week that was in the property market. Starting off with Kelvin's latest article, analysing the new build premium (using the CoreLogic Market Trends dataset).

In macro-economic news, Kelvin rounds up the latest lending data from the RBNZ, including the flow of loans and state of terms left on total stock. There's also consumer and business confidence survey data to digest, which was likely affected by confirmation of the recession, proving we all pay attention to the media headlines.

Plus, what was up with the RBNZ Governor, Adrian Orr's media appearance, seemingly paving the way for rate cuts?

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This week it's all about the economy (outside of a bit of Sail GP chat of course), after the release of the GDP data for Q4 last year confirmed we're officially back in a recession, the second time in a year for the classic double dip. What does it all mean though and what does the more timely NZAC tell us about how 2024 has started?

Kelvin also speaks about the CoreLogic release of the monthly chart pack, where the property investor situation was a core focus. 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also paid a visit to the CoreLogic offices recently, as part of their usual fact finding mission to put together their latest Article IV report. Taxes once again were a topic of interest - with housing in the spotlight. 

The lingering question though is how and when could we really see a fundamental shift in the NZ tax system? Following the leader of the opposition, Chris Hipkins opening the door on capital gains/wealth/land taxes again over the weekend though, perhaps it's sooner than we'd originally thought?

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