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Excess Returns
Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau
Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics, including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing and behavioral finance, with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors, all in twenty minutes or less per episode.
- 1 hour 9 minutesMaking Sense of Markets in a Post Election World | Grant Williams and Ben Hunt
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by Ben Hunt and Grant Williams for a candid discussion of the 2024 post-election landscape and its implications for markets. The guests explore how trust, or lack thereof, shapes both political and market narratives, examining the transformation of capital markets into what they describe as a "political utility" where "number go up" has become the prevailing faith. Key topics include: Analysis of shifting market dynamics and investment philosophies The challenges of maintaining long-term perspective in a speculation-driven environment How inflation and institutional trust impact market behavior The distinction between investment and speculation in modern markets Practical considerations for navigating uncertain economic conditions This wide-ranging conversation offers valuable insights for investors trying to understand the intersection of politics, markets, and human behavior in today's complex financial landscape.
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FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com
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14 November 2024, 2:48 pm - 1 hour 6 minutesMaking Money from Market Chaos | Inside the Volatility World with Kris Sidial
In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and special guest host Brent Kochuba dive deep into the world of long volatility and tail risk strategies with Kris Sidial, founder of the Ambrus Group. Kris shares invaluable insights from his experience managing volatility-focused strategies and navigating major market events. 🔑 Key Topics Covered: How long volatility strategies work and their role in investment portfolios Behind-the-scenes look at managing vol strategies during market crashes The August 2023 volatility event and what really happened Evolution of the derivatives market and its impact on trading The truth about market liquidity and short volatility positioning How retail options trading has changed market dynamics Kris provides a fascinating glimpse into how vol traders operate during market stress events, explaining how these strategies aim to deliver explosive returns during market crashes while minimizing losses during normal conditions. He also discusses the psychological challenges of running these strategies and the importance of having both quantitative and discretionary elements in volatility trading. Whether you're an institutional investor, retail trader, or just interested in understanding market dynamics better, this episode offers valuable perspectives on an often misunderstood corner of the investment world.
SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com
FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094
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7 November 2024, 11:57 am - 59 minutes 13 secondsA Deep Dive into Micro-Cap Investing | Ian Cassel
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCap Club and Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management. We explore the fascinating world of microcap investing, where Ian shares his expertise in finding and investing in ultra-small public companies. We dive deep into Ian's investment philosophy, discussing how he identifies promising microcap companies, the importance of finding exceptional management teams, and his approach to portfolio management. We cover: - What defines a microcap stock and the size of the microcap universe - The concept of "intelligent fanatics" and its importance in small company investing - Why profitability and management quality are crucial filters - How Ian approaches position sizing and portfolio concentration - The importance of setting proper capacity constraints in microcap investing - Why turnover can actually be beneficial in microcap portfolios - Red flags for individual investors to watch out for Whether you're an experienced investor or just getting started, this conversation offers valuable insights into an often overlooked corner of the market where significant opportunities can still be found.
SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com
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31 October 2024, 11:09 am - 51 minutes 15 secondsThe Practical Implications of the Rise of Passive Investing | Mike Green
In this episode, we are joined by Simplify Asset Management's Mike Green. We build on our previous episodes with Mike where we discussed his research on the impact of passive investing on the market and focus on its practical implications and how it impacts how investors construct their portfolios. We discuss the types of equity strategies that would benefit the most from the rise of passive, whether a factor could be constructed based on Mike's research, different strategies that might hedge a potential market decline triggered by passive and a lot more.
SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com
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FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094
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24 October 2024, 12:52 pm - 1 hour 7 minutesAn Evidence-Based Look at the Struggles of Value Investing | Larry Swedroe
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Larry Swedroe to tackle some of the most pressing issues in investing today. We dive deep into topics that are on many investors' minds, including: Is value investing still effective in today's market? How is the rise of passive investing impacting market efficiency? Should we be concerned about market concentration? Is international diversification still important? What role will artificial intelligence play in investing? Larry brings his decades of experience and research to bear, challenging common assumptions and offering nuanced perspectives that often go against conventional wisdom. We explore the importance of maintaining a long-term view, the dangers of recency bias, and why Larry believes hyper-diversification across multiple asset classes may be beneficial for investors. We also discuss factor investing, the increasing role of alternatives, and how individual investors can approach portfolio construction in our evolving market landscape.
SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com
FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094
FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
17 October 2024, 2:44 pm - 46 minutes 14 seconds15 Ways to Lose Money in Markets | Ben Carlson
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Ben Carlson, Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth and author of the popular investing blog "A Wealth of Common Sense." We discussed his insightful article "15 Ways to Lose Money in the Markets," which outlines major mistakes investors make and how to avoid them. We explore a variety of topics, including: - The dangers of market timing and why it's so difficult to get right - Why investors shouldn't blindly follow advice from billionaires or pundits - The importance of not overreacting to short-term market volatility - How to approach active vs. passive investing strategies - The pitfalls of trying to get rich overnight and the value of long-term investing - Why it's crucial to avoid selling during bear markets - The risks of being overly pessimistic about markets and the economy Ben provided valuable insights on each of these topics, emphasizing the importance of having a long-term perspective, avoiding big mistakes, and sticking to a well-thought-out investment plan. This conversation offers valuable lessons for investors at all levels, from beginners to seasoned professionals.
SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com
FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094
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10 October 2024, 2:23 pm - 1 hour 9 minutesInvesting in a Flows Driven World | Cem Karsan
In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility Advisors for an in-depth discussion on the current state of markets and the global economy. We explore: - How geopolitical events in the Middle East and Ukraine are impacting markets and risk - Cem's views on inflation, recent Fed actions, and market flows - The impact of options positioning and market structure on volatility - Cem's outlook for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024 - Historical patterns around elections and how they may apply today - Thoughts on the rise of passive investing and potential shifts ahead - Perspectives on AI as both a productivity driver and investment theme Cem shares his unique insights on how the current market backdrop compares to other periods of elevated populism and inflation, and what that could mean for returns and investor behavior going forward.
SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com
FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094
FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
3 October 2024, 6:12 pm - 1 hour 2 minutesWhat Investors Can Learn from a Year-Long Trading Experiment | Brent Donnelly
In this episode, Matt sits down with Brent Donnelly, author of "50 Trades in 50 Weeks: One Year of Good Ideas, Dumb Mistakes, and Timeless Trading Lessons". Brent spent close to a year conducting a unique experiment where he created and executed one unique trade every week across a wide variety of markets and asset classes. We discuss what he learned from the experience. We also delve into the concept of edge in investing and the challenges of maintaining one in evolving markets, the importance of narrative, the challenges of transitioning from backtesting to live trading, the crucial role of adaptation in markets and a lot more.
26 September 2024, 9:00 am - 1 hour 3 minutesWhat Regular Investors Need to Know About Options Flows | Brent Kochuba
In this episode, we dive deep into the world of options and their impact on market dynamics. We start with an "Options Dealer Flows 101" primer, explaining key concepts like delta hedging, gamma, charm, and vanna to help viewers understand how options flows can drive stock prices. We then analyze the current market situation heading into the September 2024 options expiration, one of the biggest of the year. We explore the outsized influence of Nvidia options activity, discuss potential outcomes from the upcoming FOMC meeting, and examine how bond-equity correlations are shifting. We break down why understanding options flows is crucial even for long-term investors who don't trade options themselves. Using real-world examples, we illustrate how options positioning can create market volatility and reversals around key dates. Whether you're an options trader or just want to better understand what's moving markets, this episode provides valuable insights into the hidden forces shaping stock prices. Join us as we unpack the complex world of options and their far-reaching effects on the broader market. SPOTGAMMA'S NEW PRODUCT - TRACE THE MARKET https://spotgamma.com/trace-the-market-excess-returns/?aff=Excess
18 September 2024, 6:22 pm - 1 hour 1 minuteThe Case for a Roaring 2020s | Ed Yardeni
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sat down with Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research and YardeniQuickTakes.com. Ed is one of the most accurate and respected Wall Street strategists, and we were excited to discuss his views on the economy, markets, and forecasting.
We covered a wide range of topics, including: Ed's outlook for inflation and the economy Why he believes we could be entering a "Roaring 20s" period for the stock market His thoughts on why we might see fewer Fed rate cuts than many expect The characteristics that make a good economic forecaster The potential impact of AI on the economy His views on the upcoming election and its market implications The long-term underperformance of value vs growth stocks Ed's approach to sector allocation and market breadth
SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com
FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094
FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
12 September 2024, 1:39 pm - 1 hour 20 minutesThe Harsh Truth About Investing Edge with Adam Butler
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with our good friend Adam Butler, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of ReSolve Asset Management. We cover a lot of ground, including: The challenge of distinguishing investment edge from noise over typical investing lifetimes The concept of return stacking and how it allows investors to increase portfolio diversification The process of determining sources of return to stack on top of stock and bond portfolios The impact of passive investing flows on market dynamics and fundamentals Perspectives on whether AI will significantly boost economic productivity and GDP growth As always, Adam offers thoughtful and sometimes contrarian views on these complex subjects, drawing on his extensive experience in quantitative investing and portfolio management.
SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com
FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094
FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
5 September 2024, 10:41 am - More Episodes? Get the App
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