Excess Returns

Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics, including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing and behavioral finance, with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors, all in twenty minutes or less per episode.

  • 57 minutes 29 seconds
    Practical Lessons from Cliff Asness

    In this episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler discuss their fascinating interview with AQR founder Cliff Asness. They explore several key topics from their conversation, including: Cliff's humorous take on morning routines and why correlation doesn't equal causation when it comes to success habits The "Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and why Cliff believes markets may be becoming less efficient over time, particularly evident in the dot-com bubble and 2019-2020 market events A thoughtful discussion on passive investing's impact on markets, including Cliff's perspective on what percentage of passive investing might be sustainable The importance of getting comfortable with investment discomfort, especially when following factor strategies that can experience long periods of underperformance An insightful discussion about the evolution of factor investing and whether factors need intuitive explanations to be valid Cliff's key advice for average investors: look at your portfolio as little as possible to avoid making emotional decisions The episode showcases Cliff's unique ability to combine deep quantitative insights with humor and practical wisdom, making complex investment concepts accessible and entertaining. Don't miss this conversation with one of the most influential figures in quantitative investing.

    27 January 2025, 2:41 pm
  • 1 hour 12 minutes
    Busting 50 Years of Investing Myths | Rob Arnott

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and special guest host Perth Tolle sit down with Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and pioneer of fundamental indexing. Rob discusses his thought-provoking article "50 Years of Innovation, Myth Making and Myth Busting," written for the 50th anniversary of the Journal of Portfolio Management. The conversation covers several critical investing myths and insights, including: The evolution of fundamental indexing and why "smart beta" has lost its meaning Why historical returns can be deceptive when estimating future equity risk premiums The surprising truth about long-term forecasting in markets The impact of index funds on market efficiency and stock prices Why buybacks aren't necessarily equivalent to dividends The challenges facing U.S. growth stocks at current valuations Rob brings over four decades of investment experience to this discussion, offering candid perspectives on market valuation, index fund dynamics, and the future of passive investing. His insights are particularly valuable for investors trying to navigate today's complex market environment.

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    23 January 2025, 11:05 am
  • 58 minutes 9 seconds
    Building Intelligent Alpha Portfolios with ChatGPT | Doug Clinton

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Doug Clinton of Intelligent Alpha to explore the fascinating intersection of AI and investment strategy. We discussed how Doug is using large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini to build portfolios that aim to beat the market over time. Doug shares insights from his experience launching managing AI-powered investment strategies. We dive deep into how these models actually work behind the scenes, exploring everything from portfolio construction and stock selection to position sizing and rebalancing. Doug explains how LLMs can combine quantitative and qualitative analysis in ways that traditional quant models can't, while maintaining the advantage of being free from emotional biases that often plague human investors. We also explore broader implications for the future of investment management, discussing whether AI might eventually replace human analysts and portfolio managers, or if the future lies in human-AI collaboration. The conversation wraps up with Doug's thoughts on the rapid evolution of AI technology beyond investing, including his predictions for personal AI assistants and the potential emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Whether you're an investment professional curious about AI's role in the industry or simply interested in understanding how technology is reshaping asset management, this episode offers valuable insights into what the future might hold.

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    16 January 2025, 2:44 pm
  • 1 hour 2 minutes
    Beyond the Magnificent Seven: Liz Ann Sonders on Markets, Cycles & Investing

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, for a wide-ranging discussion about markets, the economy, and investing. We explore her unique perspective on the current market environment, including her views on the end of the "Great Moderation" era and the transition to what she calls the "Temperamental Era" - a period likely to bring more volatility in both inflation and economic growth. Liz Ann shares invaluable insights about the importance of looking beyond headline index numbers to understand what's really happening in markets, the difference between behavioral and attitudinal sentiment indicators, and why changes in economic trends often matter more than absolute levels. We also discuss the evolution of market structure, including the impact of passive investing, and she shares some of the most important lessons she learned from working with legendary investor Marty Zweig. Drawing on her decades of experience, Liz Ann explains why investors should focus less on trying to predict the future and more on making sound decisions along the way. Whether you're interested in understanding current market dynamics or looking for timeless investing wisdom, this conversation offers something for investors at every level. Join us for this insightful discussion where we break down complex market topics into understandable concepts that can help inform your investment decisions.

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    9 January 2025, 12:45 pm
  • 1 hour 48 seconds
    The One Factor That Explains the Struggles of Value, International and Small-Cap Stocks | Kai Wu

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Kai Wu, founder of Sparkline Capital, for a fascinating discussion about intangible value investing and its global applications. Kai shares his expertise on using machine learning and natural language processing to identify companies rich in intellectual property, brand equity, human capital, and network effects.

    We explore why U.S. firms have historically outperformed many international counterparts, with Kai explaining how the gap in intangible asset investment has been a crucial factor. We discuss: How traditional value metrics miss important aspects of modern company value The four pillars of intangible value: IP, brand equity, human capital, and network effects Why international markets have lagged the U.S. and how intangible value can help close this gap The role of AI and machine learning in modern investment analysis A surprising analysis of global patent leadership This episode offers valuable insights for investors interested in both value investing and international diversification. Whether you're a quantitative investor or just interested in understanding how modern companies create value, you'll find plenty to think about in this discussion.

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    2 January 2025, 11:44 am
  • 56 minutes 37 seconds
    Do You Really Need International Diversification? 10 Top Investors Debate

    In this episode, we explore one of investing's most debated topics: international diversification. Through clips from 10 different investing experts, we examine whether U.S. investors truly need international exposure in their portfolios. Key topics include: What actually constitutes "international exposure" in today's interconnected markets Why U.S. stocks have dominated for so long and whether this trend can continue The role of currency exposure in international investing How passive investing flows affect international markets Different perspectives on optimal international allocation strategies Featuring insights from renowned investors and experts including Corey Hoffstein, Meb Faber, Dan Rasmussen, Larry Swedroe, Cullen Roche, Dan Villalon, Rick Ferri, Jason Buck, Mike Green, and Andy Constan, this episode offers a nuanced look at the complexities of global investing and helps viewers understand the various approaches to international diversification. Whether you're wondering if you should invest internationally or questioning your current allocation, this discussion provides valuable perspectives to help inform your investment decisions.

    30 December 2024, 7:50 pm
  • 54 minutes 29 seconds
    Redefining Value Investing in a Magnificent Seven Dominated World | Jacob Pozharny

    In this episode of Excess Returns, hosts Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau sit down with Jacob Pozharny, partner at Bridgeway Capital Management, to explore the increasingly important role of intangible assets in modern investing. Jacob breaks down what intangible assets are - from intellectual property and proprietary algorithms to brand value and customer relationships - and explains how these harder-to-measure assets are changing traditional investment approaches. He discusses Bridgeway's pioneering research on "intangible intensity" and how it affects their investment strategy, particularly for high vs. low intangible companies.

    Key topics covered: How intangible assets complicate traditional valuation metrics Why sentiment analysis matters more for high-intangible companies The implications of AI for intangible asset valuation Bridgeway's approach to long-short investing International investing opportunities and market efficiency The importance of understanding model assumptions and staying humble as an investor Whether you're interested in quantitative investing, understanding modern valuation frameworks, or keeping up with evolving market dynamics, this conversation offers valuable insights into how one of the industry's leading firms approaches these challenges.

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    27 December 2024, 12:37 pm
  • 57 minutes 37 seconds
    Inside the Secretive World of Pod Shops | Bob Elliott

    In this episode of Excess Returns, hosts Justin and Matt sit down with Bob Elliott, founder of Unlimited Funds, to explore the fascinating world of multi-strategy hedge funds, also known as "pod shops." Bob breaks down how these complex investment vehicles work, discussing their unique structure where multiple portfolio managers operate independently while sharing infrastructure and risk management resources. The conversation covers crucial topics including: How pod shops attract and compensate top trading talent The economics and fee structures of modern hedge funds Risk management challenges when running multiple strategies The evolution from traditional hedge funds to pod shop models The impact of growing assets under management on performance The emergence of ETFs as alternatives to hedge fund strategies Drawing from his extensive experience in the hedge fund industry, Bob provides unique insights into why pod shops have captured headlines despite representing only a fraction of the overall hedge fund industry. He also discusses his current work at Unlimited Funds, where he's working to make hedge fund strategies more accessible through ETF structures.

    19 December 2024, 5:13 pm
  • 55 minutes 17 seconds
    Dispelling Big Investing Myths | Dan Rasmussen

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau sit down with Dan Rasmussen from Verdad Advisers to discuss his firm's top research pieces from the past year. They explore several fascinating market insights, including: Why high bond yields don't necessarily translate to high returns The dramatic outperformance of U.S. markets post-financial crisis and the potential opportunity in cheaper international stocks How private equity return dispersion may be more about portfolio construction than manager skill The promising changes happening in Japanese corporate governance Britain's market valuation in the wake of Brexit Dan also announces his upcoming book "The Humble Investor" which challenges common assumptions about predictability in markets. Throughout the conversation, he offers thought-provoking perspectives on market efficiency, the limitations of forecasting, and why humility is crucial for investment success. Whether you're an institutional investor or individual market participant, this discussion provides valuable insights into contrarian investment opportunities and challenges prevailing market narratives with data-driven analysis.

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    12 December 2024, 1:29 pm
  • 1 hour 7 minutes
    Why Most Investors Won't Buy the Best Diversifier | Andrew Beer on Managed Futures

    In this episode of Excess Returns, hosts Justin and Jack sit down with Andrew Beer of Dynamic Beta Investments to explore the fascinating world of managed futures and alternative investment strategies. Andrew, who manages over a billion dollars in assets, shares valuable insights on why managed futures remain underutilized despite their proven benefits for portfolio diversification. The conversation dives deep into several key topics: How to effectively communicate complex investment strategies to clients Why the narrative around managed futures is just as important as their performance The challenges of getting investors to adopt alternative strategies despite their clear statistical benefits How Dynamic Beta replicates hedge fund strategies in a cost-effective ETF wrapper The importance of simplicity in investment strategies and why complexity isn't always better Andrew also discusses the evolution of the ETF landscape, the role of artificial intelligence in investment management, and why maintaining a steady, unchanging strategy has been crucial to his firm's success. Whether you're an investment professional or individual investor, this discussion offers valuable perspectives on portfolio diversification and the future of alternative investments.

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    5 December 2024, 10:00 am
  • 1 hour 4 minutes
    What the Rise of Passive Investing Means for Your Portfolio | Special Guest: Dave Nadig

    In this episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dive deep into one of the most debated topics in modern finance with special guest Dave Nadig. This episode explores how passive investing has transformed markets, featuring insights from leading experts including Mike Green, Aswath Damodaran, Rick Ferri, Rob Arnott, and Cliff Asness. Key discussions: Why active investing's poor performance led to passive's rise How index fund flows might affect market dynamics The difference between stocks in and out of major indices Whether passive investing could potentially destabilize markets What this means for individual investors Whether you're a market professional or retail investor, this conversation offers crucial insights into how passive investing is reshaping financial markets and what it means for your portfolio. Featured Guests' Clips: Aswath Damodaran on active management's track record Mike Green on passive investing mechanics Rick Ferri with the counterargument Rob Arnott on index inclusion effects Cem Karsan on why active may rise again Cliff Asness offering a balanced perspective

    2 December 2024, 2:32 pm
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