In this episode, we dive into the current economic landscape and its implications for investors with Andy Constan, founder of Damped Spring Advisors. Andy shares his expert analysis on the U.S. economy’s trajectory, the impact of policy shifts under the new administration, and the tools investors should consider—or avoid—in today’s volatile markets. From navigating the “slowdown sea” to unpacking the effects of tariffs and national debt, this conversation offers a deep dive into the forces shaping financial conditions and what it all means for your portfolio. Don’t miss Andy’s unique perspectives, including his contrarian take on quantitative easing!

Main Topics Covered:

Andy’s “Island Framework” and the current economic slowdown, including his shift from “Higher for Longer Island” to the “Slowdown Sea” en route to “Recession Island.”

The alignment of Trump, Powell, and Bessant’s goals to slow growth and curb inflation, and why this favors bonds over stocks.

The role and relevance of the “Trump Put” and “Powell Put” in today’s market, and why they’re farther out of the money than many expect.

The economic impact of proposed policies like tariffs, immigration restrictions, and expenditure cuts, including the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative.

The national debt debate: its mechanics, risks, and why Andy sees it as a burden on future generations.

Long-term inflation drivers, including demographics, productivity, and deglobalization’s inflationary pressures.

The Federal Reserve’s current position, its balance sheet challenges, and its flexibility to respond to economic shifts.The mechanics and pitfalls of leveraged ETFs, and why they’re a poor choice for long-term investors.

Andy’s contrarian view on quantitative easing as inherently pro-growth and inflationary, despite the 2008-2018 experience.

Join us for an insightful conversation with Cullen Roche, a renowned financial expert from Discipline Funds, as he breaks down some of the most pressing economic and market topics impacting investors today. Hosted by Justin and Jack, this episode of Excess Returns dives into a "fact and fiction" style discussion, where Cullen unpacks complex issues like Federal Reserve policies, tariffs, and the national debt with clarity and nuance. With his knack for simplifying the mechanics of markets and the economy, Cullen offers a fresh perspective on what’s really happening—and what it means for your financial future. Check out more about Cullen’s work at disciplinefunds.com.

Main Topics Covered:

• The Fed and Soft Landing: Cullen evaluates whether the Federal Reserve has successfully managed inflation and engineered a soft landing, reframing the analogy as stabilizing an economy in flight rather than landing it.
• Tariffs and Inflation: A deep dive into Trump’s tariff policies, exploring their impact as a corporate tax, their potential to drive inflation, and whether they can bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.
• National Debt Concerns: Cullen shares his take on the U.S. national debt, downplaying immediate risks while acknowledging the long-term inflationary dangers of unchecked government spending creep.
• DOGE and Deficit Reduction: Thoughts on the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), its potential to cut waste, and the challenges of moving the needle given the dominance of entitlements and defense spending.
• AI’s Economic Impact: How artificial intelligence might boost productivity, its limits in transforming retail demand, and whether it offsets tariff-related economic pressures.
• Bond vs. Stock Market Smarts: Cullen debunks the myth that the bond market is inherently smarter than the stock market, emphasizing both are efficient in their own right.
• Mortgage Rates and Housing: A look at whether we’ll see ultra-low mortgage rates (like 3%) again, driven by secular trends in technology and population growth.
• Crypto Reserve Fund: Cullen critiques the idea of a U.S. crypto reserve, arguing it diverts resources from productive economic investments.
• Leg Day Economics: A lighthearted yet serious take on why leg day matters—not just for fitness, but for longevity and stability.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Ziegler is joined by Lindsey Bell, Chief Market Strategist of Clearnomics, and Shannon Saccocia, Chief Investment Officer of Wealth at Neuberger Berman. They dive deep into the current market volatility and economic uncertainties facing investors. From tariff concerns to shifting consumer behaviors, they provide valuable insights on navigating these challenging times while maintaining a long-term investment perspective.

Key topics discussed:

• Tariffs and Market Uncertainty: How ongoing tariff discussions are creating business uncertainty, affecting pricing decisions, and potentially impacting economic growth

• Consumer Resilience: Analysis of consumer spending patterns, the importance of employment stability, and how different consumer segments are responding to economic pressures

• GDP Growth Projections: Examination of current GDP forecasts, including the Atlanta Fed's concerning Q1 projections, and why these numbers might be overly pessimistic

• Federal Reserve Strategy: Discussion on potential interest rate cuts for 2025, how the Fed is balancing inflation concerns with economic growth, and the challenges of monetary policy during tariff implementation

• Market Broadening: Insights on investment rotation beyond the Magnificent 7 tech stocks into sectors like healthcare, financials, and consumer discretionary

• International Investment Opportunities: Why investors should consider international exposure, particularly in European markets and potentially emerging markets including China

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In this initial episode of Rabbithole of our new show Rabbithole, Dave Nadig explores the psychology of money and investing with Barry Ritholtz, author of "How Not to Invest."

Their conversation challenges conventional financial wisdom and reveals insights about what money is, and how we use and invest it.

Key topics include:

Why money is a tool for freedom and agency, not a store of value or end goal

How childhood experiences shape our lifelong money behaviors and attitudes

Why market crashes affect us differently at various life stages

The dangers of algorithmic social media and information overload for investors

Why avoiding mistakes is more important than chasing extraordinary returns

Rethinking Bitcoin and other investments through better framing

The wisdom of humility in financial decision-making

Barry shares candid personal stories and draws on decades of experience as a trader, strategist, and wealth manager to identify the ideas, numbers, and behaviors that typically destroy wealth.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Matt welcome back investment strategist Mike Green for an in-depth conversation about the current state of markets, economic trends, and geopolitical developments.Mike shares his unique perspective on several key topics:Why traditional economic indicators like unemployment claims no longer accurately reflect economic reality due to the rise of the gig economy

How the Fed's interest rate hikes have counterintuitively benefited wealthy individuals through increased interest income

The strategic reasoning behind Trump administration policies, particularly regarding China, Russia, and global tradeAn analysis of market dynamics, including the mechanical nature of passive investing and its impact on price movements

Insights on inflation measurement challenges and the role of seasonal adjustments in recent dataThe conversation also explores how current political and economic conditions mirror historical patterns, with Mike drawing thought-provoking parallels to past societal transformations. He explains why the S&P 500's strong performance masks weakness in other market segments and offers his perspective on what investors should consider in today's environment.

Whether you're interested in markets, economics, or the intersection of politics and investing, this episode provides valuable insights from one of today's most original financial thinkers.

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In this episode, Larry Swedroe shares nine critical lessons that the markets taught investors in 2024. Drawing from decades of experience, Larry explains why market forecasts consistently fail, why valuations can't be used for market timing, and how seemingly obvious economic events often lead to surprising market outcomes.

Larry dives deep into the concept of "self-healing mechanisms" in markets, explaining how periods of poor performance often set the stage for strong future returns. He uses fascinating examples from reinsurance to value stocks to illustrate this principle.

The discussion also covers why "Sell in May and Go Away" is a dangerous myth, why active management continues to disappoint, and why proper diversification means always having some parts of your portfolio that aren't performing well.

Larry also explains why investors keep making the same mistakes and how they can break free from common behavioral biases.

The conversation includes practical insights on:

Why even a perfect economic crystal ball wouldn't help you predict markets

The dangers of judging investment strategies by their outcomes rather than their process

Why patience and discipline are crucial for investment success

How to think about diversification in a world dominated by large tech stocks

Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, this episode offers valuable perspectives on building resilient portfolios and avoiding common investment pitfalls.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Jack sit down with Scott McBride, CEO and portfolio manager at Hotchkis and Wiley, to explore the approach that has allowed them to succeed during a time when many other value investors have failed. McBride, with 24 years at the firm, shares insights into how their team has achieved impressive results by being willing to think differently from consensus.

Key topics discussed:

How market sentiment and emotion create opportunities for long-term investors

The importance of having the right team culture and being comfortable with contrarian positions

Their approach to valuing companies beyond traditional metrics like P/E ratiosWhy catalysts aren't necessary for investment success if you get valuation and governance right

Their perspective on international markets, particularly opportunities in Europe and the UK

Thoughts on AI's impact on businesses and investment analysis

The growing influence of passive investing and how it creates opportunities

McBride explains why having fewer analysts covering certain stocks can create opportunities, and why focusing on business quality, strong balance sheets, and good governance is crucial for long-term success. He also shares valuable insights about maintaining flexibility in investment approach rather than being dogmatic about any single strategy.

Whether you're an experienced investor or just starting out, this conversation offers practical wisdom about what works in value investing over the long term.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Mike Taylor, portfolio manager of Simplify's PINK healthcare ETF, for a fascinating discussion about how he mansges his personal portfolio. Drawing from his extensive experience at firms like Citadel and Millennium, Mike shares candid insights about what makes a successful investor and his portfolio construction process. Key topics include: Why having "skin in the game" matters when managing funds The critical elements he looks for in high-conviction investments His unique approach to international investing and macro trends Valuable lessons learned from working at top hedge funds His perspective on retirement and career longevity in finance Thoughts on demographic challenges facing global markets Mike brings both humor and deep expertise to this conversation, offering rare insights into how a veteran hedge fund manager thinks about markets, risk, and portfolio construction. Whether you're a professional investor or individual managing your own portfolio, this episode provides valuable perspectives on navigating today's complex market environment.

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Welcome to Click Beta - where three market professionals cut through the financial clickbait to have real conversations about what matters. In this premiere episode, hosts Matt Zigler, Jason Buck, and Dave Nadig dive into pressing topics like trade wars, tariffs, and their real-world impacts on small businesses and manufacturing. The conversation flows from corporate-subsidized jobs to cryptocurrency grifts, and wraps up with a fascinating discussion about the future of local economies and digital communities. Unlike typical financial content, Click Beta brings you unscripted, unfiltered perspectives from three different corners of the financial world - financial planning, fund management, and product strategy. Join us monthly as we analyze headlines, share insights, and figure out what really matters for investors and professionals alike.

Market Wizards author Jack Schwager returns for another fascinating conversation about trading psychology, risk management, and lessons learned from interviewing the world's top traders. In this wide-ranging discussion, Schwager shares stories from his early career as a market analyst in the 1970s, his transition to writing the influential Market Wizards series, and his personal journey understanding that his talents lay in analyzing and writing about trading rather than trading itself. Key highlights include: The origin story of how Schwager landed his first job and serendipitously replaced Michael Marcus Critical insights about the unchanging nature of human psychology in markets despite technological evolution Why risk management principles remain constant even as trading strategies evolve Fascinating stories about legendary traders like George Soros, Stanley Druckenmiller, and Ed Thorp The important distinction between volatility and true risk in markets A preview of Schwager's upcoming book project with co-author George Coyle Whether you're a veteran trader or new to markets, this conversation offers timeless wisdom about successful trading, the entrepreneurial mindset required to succeed, and the importance of understanding your own strengths and limitations. Watch for Jack's memorable explanation of Bruce Kovner's famous advice: "Know where you're getting out before you get in."

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In this episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler discuss their fascinating interview with AQR founder Cliff Asness. They explore several key topics from their conversation, including: Cliff's humorous take on morning routines and why correlation doesn't equal causation when it comes to success habits The "Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and why Cliff believes markets may be becoming less efficient over time, particularly evident in the dot-com bubble and 2019-2020 market events A thoughtful discussion on passive investing's impact on markets, including Cliff's perspective on what percentage of passive investing might be sustainable The importance of getting comfortable with investment discomfort, especially when following factor strategies that can experience long periods of underperformance An insightful discussion about the evolution of factor investing and whether factors need intuitive explanations to be valid Cliff's key advice for average investors: look at your portfolio as little as possible to avoid making emotional decisions The episode showcases Cliff's unique ability to combine deep quantitative insights with humor and practical wisdom, making complex investment concepts accessible and entertaining. Don't miss this conversation with one of the most influential figures in quantitative investing.