Excess Returns

Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics, including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing and behavioral finance, with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors, all in twenty minutes or less per episode.

  • 57 minutes 37 seconds
    Inside the Secretive World of Pod Shops | Bob Elliott

    In this episode of Excess Returns, hosts Justin and Matt sit down with Bob Elliott, founder of Unlimited Funds, to explore the fascinating world of multi-strategy hedge funds, also known as "pod shops." Bob breaks down how these complex investment vehicles work, discussing their unique structure where multiple portfolio managers operate independently while sharing infrastructure and risk management resources. The conversation covers crucial topics including: How pod shops attract and compensate top trading talent The economics and fee structures of modern hedge funds Risk management challenges when running multiple strategies The evolution from traditional hedge funds to pod shop models The impact of growing assets under management on performance The emergence of ETFs as alternatives to hedge fund strategies Drawing from his extensive experience in the hedge fund industry, Bob provides unique insights into why pod shops have captured headlines despite representing only a fraction of the overall hedge fund industry. He also discusses his current work at Unlimited Funds, where he's working to make hedge fund strategies more accessible through ETF structures.

    19 December 2024, 5:13 pm
  • 55 minutes 17 seconds
    Dispelling Big Investing Myths | Dan Rasmussen

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau sit down with Dan Rasmussen from Verdad Advisers to discuss his firm's top research pieces from the past year. They explore several fascinating market insights, including: Why high bond yields don't necessarily translate to high returns The dramatic outperformance of U.S. markets post-financial crisis and the potential opportunity in cheaper international stocks How private equity return dispersion may be more about portfolio construction than manager skill The promising changes happening in Japanese corporate governance Britain's market valuation in the wake of Brexit Dan also announces his upcoming book "The Humble Investor" which challenges common assumptions about predictability in markets. Throughout the conversation, he offers thought-provoking perspectives on market efficiency, the limitations of forecasting, and why humility is crucial for investment success. Whether you're an institutional investor or individual market participant, this discussion provides valuable insights into contrarian investment opportunities and challenges prevailing market narratives with data-driven analysis.

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    12 December 2024, 1:29 pm
  • 1 hour 7 minutes
    Why Most Investors Won't Buy the Best Diversifier | Andrew Beer on Managed Futures

    In this episode of Excess Returns, hosts Justin and Jack sit down with Andrew Beer of Dynamic Beta Investments to explore the fascinating world of managed futures and alternative investment strategies. Andrew, who manages over a billion dollars in assets, shares valuable insights on why managed futures remain underutilized despite their proven benefits for portfolio diversification. The conversation dives deep into several key topics: How to effectively communicate complex investment strategies to clients Why the narrative around managed futures is just as important as their performance The challenges of getting investors to adopt alternative strategies despite their clear statistical benefits How Dynamic Beta replicates hedge fund strategies in a cost-effective ETF wrapper The importance of simplicity in investment strategies and why complexity isn't always better Andrew also discusses the evolution of the ETF landscape, the role of artificial intelligence in investment management, and why maintaining a steady, unchanging strategy has been crucial to his firm's success. Whether you're an investment professional or individual investor, this discussion offers valuable perspectives on portfolio diversification and the future of alternative investments.

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    5 December 2024, 10:00 am
  • 1 hour 4 minutes
    What the Rise of Passive Investing Means for Your Portfolio | Special Guest: Dave Nadig

    In this episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dive deep into one of the most debated topics in modern finance with special guest Dave Nadig. This episode explores how passive investing has transformed markets, featuring insights from leading experts including Mike Green, Aswath Damodaran, Rick Ferri, Rob Arnott, and Cliff Asness. Key discussions: Why active investing's poor performance led to passive's rise How index fund flows might affect market dynamics The difference between stocks in and out of major indices Whether passive investing could potentially destabilize markets What this means for individual investors Whether you're a market professional or retail investor, this conversation offers crucial insights into how passive investing is reshaping financial markets and what it means for your portfolio. Featured Guests' Clips: Aswath Damodaran on active management's track record Mike Green on passive investing mechanics Rick Ferri with the counterargument Rob Arnott on index inclusion effects Cem Karsan on why active may rise again Cliff Asness offering a balanced perspective

    2 December 2024, 2:32 pm
  • 1 hour 5 minutes
    The Most Misunderstood Bull Market Ever | Jim Paulsen

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with veteran investment strategist Jim Paulsen to discuss the current market landscape and economic outlook. Paulsen, author of Paulson Perspectives on Substack, shares unique insights on why traditional recession indicators have failed, how Main Street sentiment impacts markets, and why he remains optimistic despite widespread pessimism. Key topics include: Why the Fed's recent approach differs from historical patterns The changing nature of market valuations The impact of technology on profit productivity Why consumer confidence remains surprisingly low The future of long-term bond yields Drawing from over 40 years of market experience, Paulsen offers a data-driven yet practical perspective on where markets may be heading and why many conventional indicators may need updating for today's economy.

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    27 November 2024, 10:13 am
  • 1 hour 15 minutes
    Bigger Extremes, Better Returns | Cliff Asness on the "Less Efficient Market Hypothesis"

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with AQR founder Cliff Asness for a fascinating discussion about market efficiency, behavioral finance, and the future of quantitative investing. In this wide-ranging conversation, we explore Cliff's recent paper "The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and discuss why markets might actually be becoming less efficient over time, despite advances in technology – a counterintuitive but compelling argument. We dig into how social media and constant connectivity might be making markets more prone to extremes, the real impact of passive investing, and why periods of market irrationality might last longer than ever before. Cliff shares his perspective on the current market concentration in the Magnificent Seven stocks and offers insights on high-volatility alternatives from his latest paper. The conversation also covers the role of intuition in factor investing, inflation's impact on markets, and ends with Cliff's essential advice for the average investor. Throughout the discussion, Cliff brings his characteristic mix of academic rigor and practical wisdom, peppered with his unique brand of humor. Whether you're a quant enthusiast, professional investor, or just interested in understanding today's markets better, this conversation offers valuable insights from one of the industry's most influential voices.

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    20 November 2024, 12:09 pm
  • 1 hour 9 minutes
    Making Sense of Markets in a Post Election World | Grant Williams and Ben Hunt

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by Ben Hunt and Grant Williams for a candid discussion of the 2024 post-election landscape and its implications for markets. The guests explore how trust, or lack thereof, shapes both political and market narratives, examining the transformation of capital markets into what they describe as a "political utility" where "number go up" has become the prevailing faith. Key topics include: Analysis of shifting market dynamics and investment philosophies The challenges of maintaining long-term perspective in a speculation-driven environment How inflation and institutional trust impact market behavior The distinction between investment and speculation in modern markets Practical considerations for navigating uncertain economic conditions This wide-ranging conversation offers valuable insights for investors trying to understand the intersection of politics, markets, and human behavior in today's complex financial landscape.

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    14 November 2024, 2:48 pm
  • 1 hour 6 minutes
    Making Money from Market Chaos | Inside the Volatility World with Kris Sidial

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and special guest host Brent Kochuba dive deep into the world of long volatility and tail risk strategies with Kris Sidial, founder of the Ambrus Group. Kris shares invaluable insights from his experience managing volatility-focused strategies and navigating major market events. 🔑 Key Topics Covered: How long volatility strategies work and their role in investment portfolios Behind-the-scenes look at managing vol strategies during market crashes The August 2023 volatility event and what really happened Evolution of the derivatives market and its impact on trading The truth about market liquidity and short volatility positioning How retail options trading has changed market dynamics Kris provides a fascinating glimpse into how vol traders operate during market stress events, explaining how these strategies aim to deliver explosive returns during market crashes while minimizing losses during normal conditions. He also discusses the psychological challenges of running these strategies and the importance of having both quantitative and discretionary elements in volatility trading. Whether you're an institutional investor, retail trader, or just interested in understanding market dynamics better, this episode offers valuable perspectives on an often misunderstood corner of the investment world.

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    7 November 2024, 11:57 am
  • 59 minutes 13 seconds
    A Deep Dive into Micro-Cap Investing | Ian Cassel

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCap Club and Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management. We explore the fascinating world of microcap investing, where Ian shares his expertise in finding and investing in ultra-small public companies. We dive deep into Ian's investment philosophy, discussing how he identifies promising microcap companies, the importance of finding exceptional management teams, and his approach to portfolio management. We cover: - What defines a microcap stock and the size of the microcap universe - The concept of "intelligent fanatics" and its importance in small company investing - Why profitability and management quality are crucial filters - How Ian approaches position sizing and portfolio concentration - The importance of setting proper capacity constraints in microcap investing - Why turnover can actually be beneficial in microcap portfolios - Red flags for individual investors to watch out for Whether you're an experienced investor or just getting started, this conversation offers valuable insights into an often overlooked corner of the market where significant opportunities can still be found.

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    31 October 2024, 11:09 am
  • 51 minutes 15 seconds
    The Practical Implications of the Rise of Passive Investing | Mike Green

    In this episode, we are joined by Simplify Asset Management's Mike Green. We build on our previous episodes with Mike where we discussed his research on the impact of passive investing on the market and focus on its practical implications and how it impacts how investors construct their portfolios. We discuss the types of equity strategies that would benefit the most from the rise of passive, whether a factor could be constructed based on Mike's research, different strategies that might hedge a potential market decline triggered by passive and a lot more.

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    24 October 2024, 12:52 pm
  • 1 hour 7 minutes
    An Evidence-Based Look at the Struggles of Value Investing | Larry Swedroe

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Larry Swedroe to tackle some of the most pressing issues in investing today. We dive deep into topics that are on many investors' minds, including: Is value investing still effective in today's market? How is the rise of passive investing impacting market efficiency? Should we be concerned about market concentration? Is international diversification still important? What role will artificial intelligence play in investing? Larry brings his decades of experience and research to bear, challenging common assumptions and offering nuanced perspectives that often go against conventional wisdom. We explore the importance of maintaining a long-term view, the dangers of recency bias, and why Larry believes hyper-diversification across multiple asset classes may be beneficial for investors. We also discuss factor investing, the increasing role of alternatives, and how individual investors can approach portfolio construction in our evolving market landscape.

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    17 October 2024, 2:44 pm
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