Commentary on Indian Financial Markets
In this episode, recorded in early October 2024, we’re diving into a topic that’s on everyone’s mind: Is holding cash a smart move in these unpredictable markets?
We’re in what some are calling one of the most “unloved” bull markets—stocks keep rising, but investors (ourselves included) are uneasy, waiting for the other shoe to drop. To help us unpack whether cash can actually give your portfolio an edge during uncertain times, we brought in none other than Deepak Shenoy.
Together, we explore whether holding cash can protect you from potential downturns or even help you outperform the benchmarks. We also dig into the challenges fund managers face with cash calls, why getting back into the market can be harder than it seems, and how strategies like STPs (Systematic Transfer Plans) play out in real life.
Deepak shares some great insights, comparing today’s market to historical events like the 2020 Crash, Russia-Ukraine war, Brexit, and the 2008 financial crisis. Plus, we look at what Warren Buffett has done with cash during past downturns—and why even he hasn’t always gotten it right.
This episode is packed with practical takeaways including:
1) When holding cash makes sense—and when it doesn’t
2) Why fund managers sometimes get cash calls wrong
3) The emotional side of staying invested vs. going to cash
4) How IPOs and market liquidity can impact your cash strategy
If you’ve ever felt that itch to “do something” with your portfolio when markets are shaky, this conversation is for you. We break down the mental tug-of-war between holding cash and riding out the market, with Deepak sharing actionable advice that will help you stay prepared, no matter what happens next.
In this episode of the Capitalmind Podcast, we take a deep dive into the world of unlisted and private securities. We’ll cover key topics such as:
Don’t miss out! Send your ideas for future episodes to [email protected], and if you're ready to invest with us, visit capitalmind.in to learn more about our PMS service.
00:00 Welcome to the Capital Mind Podcast 00:37 Introduction to Unlisted and Private Securities 04:27 Private vs Public Limited Companies 07:32 Valuing Unlisted Companies 09:26 Complexities of Cap Tables 21:31 Exit Strategies for Unlisted Securities 41:19 The Impact of Swiggy and Zomato on Restaurants 42:57 Investment Opportunities in Unlisted Companies 44:01 Shenanigans in Private and Public Markets 44:49 Case Studies: Byju's and FarmEasy 49:22 The Role of Venture Capitalists 01:05:00 Strategic Investments and Their Impact 01:07:30 Challenges of Investing in Unlisted Companies 01:24:03 The Future of Private Investments 01:24:49 Conclusion and Final ThoughtsIn this episode of the Capitalmind Podcast, Deepak and Shray dissect the surge in New Fund Offerings (NFOs) by mutual funds, dissecting why fund houses are launching new schemes and who truly benefits from them—whether it’s the AMC, the customer, or intermediaries like distributors. We also discuss the economics of fund distribution, the role of intermediaries, and how to identify the best options for your investments.
The episode also ventures into the often not talked about side of financial advisory, the unrealistic expectations of managing wealth independently, and the vital role of professional advisors. Additionally, they explore the cyclic nature of NFOs, investor hype in bull markets, and the risks of market oversaturation, concluding with advice on navigating financial products during booming market conditions.
Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just getting started, this episode is packed with insights that can help you make informed decisions.
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction to the Capitalmind Podcast and disclaimer
00:43 Overview of New Fund Offerings (NFOs)
02:29 Historical Context and SEBI Regulations
03:24 Fund Categories and Flexibility
05:00 The Role of Fund Managers and Themes
08:50 Marketing and Distribution Economics
12:04 Impact on Customers and Fund Houses
29:47 Advertising and Expense Management
33:33 The Role of SEBI in Fund Innovation
34:29 The Impact of Fund Variety on Investors
35:30 The Importance of Innovation in the Mutual Fund Industry
36:59 Challenges of Fund Categorization
42:43 The Role of Financial Advisors and RIAs
49:55 Mutual Fund Distributors vs. Bank RMs
55:27 When to Go Direct with Your Investments
01:05:50 The Cycle of NFOs in Bull Markets
01:09:01 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Picture this: You’re at your favourite bakery, and you overhear that a celebrity is about to place a massive order for your favourite pastries. You rush to buy them all up before the celeb can, hoping to sell them back at a premium. That, in essence, is front running in the financial world.
We discuss how people pull off this trick and, more importantly, how they get caught.
(Spoiler alert: it’s not as glamorous as a Hollywood heist)
Axis Mutual Fund had their share of front running drama not too long ago. Traders making big bucks, splurging on luxury pads and flashy cars—sounds like a plot from "The Wolf of Wall Street”. We’ll break down the fallout and the lessons learned.
Currently, Quant Mutual Fund is going through allegations about front running.
How do you, as an investor, make sense of these allegations and decide on your next move?
Should you hold onto your Quant Mutual Fund investments or start thinking about an exit strategy?
We talk about all this and more in our latest episode of Capitalmind Podcast.
Recently, the mere hint of an inheritance tax proposal sparked a mini-political crisis? Thanks to a quick government rebuttal, it’s off the table—at least for now. But that’s not where the story ends.
As always, Deepak and Shray go head-to-head, weighing the merits and pitfalls of this hot-button issue.
We’re not just looking at the problem from 30,000 feet; we’re getting into the weeds, examining real-life scenarios and potential solutions that could impact you and your future.
Government Finances: Can an inheritance tax significantly boost government coffers? Or is it just another drop in the ocean of fiscal needs?
Societal Impact: Will taxing inheritances create a more industrious society, or will it just penalise those who’ve worked hard to create wealth for their children?
Implementation: What if we set the bar high, say at 100 crores or even 1000 crores? Would this make the tax more palatable and targeted?
Practical Hurdles: Imagine inheriting a house or a business. Sounds dreamy until you hit the wall of unrealised gains and logistical nightmares. We’re peeling back the layers on these challenges.
Future Planning: If you’re expecting a windfall 5 or 10 years down the road, how should you plan your finances today? Spoiler alert: It’s not as straightforward as you might think.
So, grab your headphones and tune in. Whether you’re a financial novice or a seasoned investor, this episode promises to challenge your thinking and maybe even make you laugh along the way.
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and Disclaimer
01:25 Should we have an inheritance tax?
07:36 What if inheritance tax is imposed solely on the wealthy?
15:42 Creating a Trust to offset tax
25:04 Are there significant practical difficulties associated with inheritance tax?
35:08 Doesn't implementing an inheritance or wealth tax help reduce asset prices or control inflation?
42:58 How should one prepare for potential inheritance taxes in the future?
In this comprehensive discussion, Fund Manager and Head of Research Anoop Vijaykumar and Shray Chandra distil the key lessons from over five years of managing the Capitalmind Adaptive Momentum portfolio.
Get a concise overview of the principles of momentum investing driving the portfolio’s success.
Learn from our real-world lessons on why momentum investing works for long-term wealth creation
00:36 Introduction
01:54 Momentum strategy in the last 5 years
03:30 Difference between the fundamental and quantitive styles
08:00 Random correlations when backtesting a quantitive strategy
10:30 Capitalmind Adaptive Momentum strategy
15:05 Why does momentum investing work?
18:54 Lessons learned from 5 years of managing momentum strategy
26:00 Will momentum stop working
29:30 How can we get more out of the momentum strategy?
Have you ever wondered why finance seems to have a forgiving nature?
From the sins of the past being easily forgotten to the belief in second chances, we'll explore the nuances of forgiveness in the financial realm.
We'll dissect the tactics some "for education purposes only" players use to enrich themselves at the expense of their students. It's a sobering reminder to always question the motives behind the message.
We uncover the darker side of startup culture, where founders blur the lines between innovation and exploitation. It’s a cautionary tale for aspiring entrepreneurs and investors alike.
Deepak & Shray, in their quintessential style, discuss nuances of investing and finance in this latest episode of Capitalmind Podcast.
Show Notes & References
00:00 Introduction and Disclaimer 01:35 Why is finance a uniquely forgiving industry? 19:37 Deepak’s views on AT 1 Instrument 28:23 How do customers react to their fund managers' pros and cons? 57:57 Critical look at how some financial educators profit heavily from courses that may not benefit students as promised. 01:05:40 A look into the darker side of startup culture where founders misappropriate funds and then start new enterprises. 01:12:00 Delving into the challenges faced by companies when customers misuse their power.The idea that finance companies want to do everything from payments to lending to broking to investments is strange - why not just be good at one thing?
It’s a simple explanation, it turns out. Find out more about the business of money in a language you can easily understand, through the words of Deepak Shenoy and Shray Chandra.
Capitalmind manages Rs. 1700+ cr. as a SEBI-registered PMS, and has quantitative investing strategies that use extensively tested factor data to invest into stocks. Our flagship Adaptive Momentum strategy has outperformed the market indices over 5+ years.
References:
00:00 Introduction
00:17 Why does every company do everything in financial services?
12:41 Why aren’t banks more aggressive in growing and pricing things lower?
26:40 Discussion on the success of Bajaj Finance and arbitrage between Banks and NBFCs
36:46 Why aren't banks aggressive on lending ? What's the issue with lending?
56:49 Deepak explains the Indian Bankruptcy code
01:07:13 What can we do to fix this?
More about us: https://cm.social/pms
Schedule a call with us: https://cm.social/pms-connect
Deepak’s Twitter: @deepakshenoy
Shray’s Twitter: @shraychandra
Capitalmind Twitter: @capitalmind_in
Deepak's first book: http://amzn.to/3CgkGea
Ever wondered why circuits are in place?
It all started on Black Monday in 1987, where a 25% market correction prompted the introduction of market-wide circuit breakers in the US. These limits aimed to ensure market maker solvency and prevent panic-induced trading.
Fast forward to 2001, and India also introduced circuits to handle intraday market volatility. From the Nifty's inception to the imposition of index-level circuit filters, the Indian market landscape has witnessed a steady evolution in its approach to market regulation.
In this episode, we delve deeper into the concept of circuits, with real life stories and understand how they help the market.
We also discuss, should circuits continue to exist in their current form? or is it time to explore alternatives that foster greater transparency and resilience?
Show Notes & References
00:00 Introduction and Disclaimer
01:24 Background on limits or circuit breakers.
06:38 When did India implement the circuit breaker?
09:20 What are the current rules for circuits in India?
15:58 Why are circuits interesting in the first place?
19:07 What would happen if circuits weren’t there?
24:38 Some interesting stories on circuits in the stock market
36:34 What is a better way to manage circuits?
40:47 Will circuits continue to exit?
In today's episode, we delve deep into the recent actions taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) towards the end of 2023 and the ensuing ripple effects they've set off.
The RBI, often the silent architect of our financial landscape, has made strategic manoeuvres that reshape the terrain for banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), and borrowers.
Discover how these regulatory shifts could impact financial decisions and the broader economic landscape. From the nuances of risk weights to the implications for personal loan growth, this episode promises to demystify the complex world of financial regulations in a digestible and engaging format.
Here is a quick overview of what we talk about:
00:00 Introduction and Disclaimer 01:34 Deepak demystifies the two new regulations by RBI on Banks and NBFC 05:37 What’s the impact of these new regulations? Why should we care? 16:05 Why is RBI more concerned about personal loans? 24:54 Why aren’t you positive about the RBI action here? What’s wrong with the slowing loan growth? 32:20 If Startups are ready to take the risk, why is RBI stopping them? 45:14 Even after this bull run, why isn’t there lending against securities? 52:11 RBI has a new rule prohibiting Banks and NBFCs from evergreening loans through AIFs. 01:03:51 Is this a warning, a sign that the economy is over-heating?
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