In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss recent economic headlines, including AI spending, optimism in commercial real estate (CRE), and Trump’s return to office executive order for federal workers. We share scenarios on what could happen with this mandate and preview an analysis on GSA exposure and the respective average rent per square foot. We then turn to the privatization of Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac and discuss its potential impact on CMBS issuance. In a digging through the data segment, we look at maturities by property type and dive into multifamily issuance, delinquency, and trends. We close the episode with credit stories and office leasing transactions, including Bloomingdale’s closing its flagship store in San Francisco, and Blackstone buying the Kimpton Hotel Eventi in New York City. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

- Economic Update (0:28)

- Trump’s RTO mandate for Federal workers (7:27)

- GSA exposure analysis (10:27)

- Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac privatization (13:12)

- Digging through the data: multifamily issuance, delinquency, and trends (23:00)

- Credit Stories (28:05)

- Office Leasing Stories (32:39)

- Bloomingdale’s closing its flagship store in San Francisco (36:57)

- Blackstone buying the Kimpton Hotel in New York City (40:49)

- Industrial property acquisition in Queens, NY (41:51)

- Programing notes (43:41)

- Shoutouts (44:36)

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In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we review the themes, discussions and key takeaways from CRE Finance Council (CREFC)’s January 2025 conference. We also analyze the latest economic data including the increase in both the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index, the rise in jobless claims and the pickup in economic activity reported by the Fed’s Beige Book. We review the bank earnings reported on the 15th, discuss the California wildfires and real estate taxes, and Local Law 97 in NYC. We then go over two trading alerts about special servicing transfers and review some notable multifamily, office, retail and industrial sales transactions. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

- CREFC January 2025 Conference themes & takeaways (1:14)

- Last week's Jobs Report (5:28)

- Bank earnings reports – JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup & Bank of America (14:52)

- California Wildfires, Real Estate Taxes & Local Law 97 in NYC (20:11)

- Self-storage trading alert: Self-Storage Portfolio SASB Loan Enters Special Servicing, Appraised Value Cut (32:17)

- Lodging trading alert: Montauk Lodging Loan Heads to Special Servicing (34:57)

- Sales transactions: Multifamily in NC, Office in NYC, DC & CA, Retail in MI, and Industrial in AZ, NJ & IL (38:30)

- Programing Notes (47:24)

- Shoutouts (48:19)

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In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by David Auerbach, Chief Investment Officer at Hoya Capital to discuss the current state and future of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) sector. David shares his journey into the REIT industry, insights on market trends, and the importance of long-term investment strategies. He emphasizes the significance of dividend growth and the need for investors to understand the underlying dynamics of the REIT market. David also goes over the current state of the REIT market, focusing on the single-family rental sector, the evolution of retail, and the importance of healthcare REITs. We wrap up with a discussion on the need for diversification in REIT investments and the outlook for the sector leading into 2025. Episode Notes:

- Introduction to REITs and David’s Background (0:19)

- Current Trends in the REIT Sector (07:25)

- Long-Term Investment Perspectives in REITs (13:14)

- The Power of Compounding Dividends (19:24)

- Understanding the REIT Market Dynamics (25:07)

- Exploring the Single-Family Rental Market (27:54)

- The Evolution of Retail (37:51)

- A Deep Dive into Healthcare REITs (44:56)

- Looking Ahead to 2025 (49:44)

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Happy 300th episode of The TreppWire Podcast! In this week’s milestone episode, we are here to share the data behind the headlines. We first reflect on the wildfires in California and the potential impact on real estate, insurance costs, and the market at large. We ‘dig through the data’ into office originations to provide transparency into the performance of the sector. We also provide insight into stories across office, lodging, and multifamily – including a juicy $500k/unit apartment property transaction. Stick around to hear how to enter our podcast giveaway. Tune in now.

This episode is sponsored by ⁠EisnerAmper⁠.

Episode Notes:

- Episode 300 Milestone (0:27)

- Economic update (2:53)

- California Wildfires and Prop 13 (3:52)

- Office loan originations (10:59)

- Office stories: value reduction in NYC and sales transactions in Dallas and Chicago (21:51)

- Multifamily: juicy transaction in Virginia, for $500k/unit, and another acquisition in Florida (30:57)

- Lodging: special servicing transfer in Florida and a sales transaction in Virginia (37:56)

- Programing notes & triple giveaway (44:49)

- Shoutouts (45:58)

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In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we delve into the current landscape of the commercial real estate (CRE) market, providing some much needed context for 2025. We begin by analyzing the latest CMBS delinquency data, offering our interpretations and breaking down the numbers dating back to January 2000, when Trepp first began tracking these rates. We spend some time reflecting on 2024 and provide additional predictions for the new year in terms of issuance, distress metrics, interest rates, and other factors that may impact the CRE market. We wrap up the episode with themes we saw in the credit stories we reported throughout the year and discuss where there is room for opportunities. Tune in now.

Episode Notes 

• Going into 2025 vs into 2024 (0:24)
• CMBS Delinquency Data: Behind the Numbers (3:08)
• Office Distress Context (9:22)
• Multifamily Performance (23:21)
• 2025 Predictions: Issuance & Interest Rates (26:42)
• Hot CRE Markets in 2025 (30:35)
• Credit Story Themes We Saw in 2024 (40:23)
• Programming Notes & Shoutouts (53:54)

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We hope all our listeners are having a joyous holiday season and thank you all for tuning in each week. In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we take stock of the major commercial real estate (CRE) headlines of 2024 and make sense of it all with Trepp’s data. We provide our insights into both the positive and negative stories we’ve seen this year, including the maturity wall narrative, the bank sector rebound, insurance costs, and major retail bankruptcies. Diving into the data, we look at the 2024 maturity schedule, debt yield numbers, CMBS loans originated, and provide our predictions on future delinquency rates. We wrap up the episode with CRE optimism for 2025. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

Maturity Wall (0:51)

Insurance Costs (4:55)

Retail Bankruptcies (6:45)

2024 Maturity Schedule (12:29)

Underwritten Debt Yield (14:49)

Delinquency Predictions (16:11)

Weighted Average Debt Yield for Urban Office Maturities (23:22)

Banking & Lending Snapshot (30:04)

CRE Optimism for Next Year (33:39)

Preliminary December Delinquency Rate Estimates (38:00)

Programming Notes (42:10)

Shoutouts (45:02)

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This episode is sponsored by EisnerAmper.

Resiliency is the word of 2024, but uncertainty might be the word of the day. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by our Chief Economist to discuss mixed signals from the recent economic data, including contrasting PMI figures, retail sales growth, and the latest Fed rate cut. We also discussed the continued chatter around extend &  pretend, the unexpected resilience of the U.S. economy in 2024, and what to expect for 2025. We break down Flagstar Bank's sale of troubled NY loans, value reductions across office properties in Philadelphia and San Francisco, and major portfolio loans entering special servicing including the $1.23 billion Workspace Property Trust Portfolio and $379.1 million Selig Office Portfolio. We also discuss Party City mulling a second bankruptcy, significant multifamily sales, and California's rejection of Prop 33. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

- Economic Update & 2024 Economic Review (0:32)

- Flagstar Bank Looking to Sell Portfolio of Eight Underperforming NY Loans (9:14)

- Office stories: Seattle portfolio special servicing transfer, Federal Center Plaza GSA updates, Philadelphia & SF value reductions (16:01)

- Retail stories: Party City’s second bankruptcy concerns, California mall loan special servicing transfer and a Kentucky shopping center transaction (28:54)

- Mixed-Use: a $23B portfolio loan special servicing transfer and an NYC value reduction (35:40)

- Multifamily stories: NYC $318M loan special servicing transfer, Seattle, South Carolina, Columbus, and DC property transactions (41:21)

- Rent control & California Prop 33 implications (45:24)

- Shoutouts (47:46)

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In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by Bernadette Brennan, Managing Director, and Owen Toland, Real Estate Salesperson at SERHANT. Known for its presence on the Netflix show, "Owning Manhattan," SERHANT is a full-service real estate agency, and Bernadette and Owen are here to discuss the commercial side of the business. We dive into the shift in the real estate landscape post-pandemic, discussing the rise of owner-user purchases, the contrast between Class A and B offices, and the retail leasing market. We also hear stories of high-profile clients and unusual deals that would make great reality TV. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

- Bernadette's Journey from Music to Real Estate (01:41)

- Owen's Path to Commercial Real Estate (03:35)

- Current State of New York City Real Estate (05:00)

- Retail Leasing Insights and Market Trends (10:58)

- Building the Commercial Division at SERHANT (15:32)

- Unique Client Stories and High-Profile Deals (19:11)

- Conclusion and Final Thoughts (27:46)

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In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss the latest CPI reading, expected Fed interest rate cut, nonfarm payrolls, and the City of Yes zoning reform plan that was approved by the New York City Council this week. In commercial real estate news, we examine the latest talks of spinning off Macy’s real estate portfolio and the Kroger and Albertsons merger that turned into a lawsuit. 

We also examine several office stories, including a residential conversion, large lease renewal and acquisitions and appraisal value reductions. In multifamily we talk about a student-housing acquisition and a few special servicing transfers and value reductions. Tune in now. 

Episode Notes:

- Economic Update: latest CPI reading, expected Fed rate cut, Macy’s real estate portfolio, Kroger-Albertson’s merger turned lawsuit, nonfarm payrolls (00:23)

- Wall Street firms, AvalonBay Communities, a multifamily REIT, buying or developing single-family homes (13:19)

- City of Yes Zoning Reform Plan Approved by City Council (19:29)

- Office stories: residential conversion, acquisitions, lease renewal and appraisal value reductions (26:44)

- Multifamily: student-housing acquisition & special servicing transfers (38:32)

- Lodging: value reduction of a Portland hotel (44:13)

- Programming Notes (46:36)

- Shoutouts (48:36)

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In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by Seth Glasser, Senior Managing Director at New York Multifamily at Marcus & Millichap. As one of the top-producing multifamily agents in their office, Seth shares insights into his journey in commercial real estate (CRE), the major challenges facing the NYC multifamily market due to evolving legislation, and where the opportunities lie. We also dive into key topics including 1031 Exchanges, triple net leases (NNN), current cap rates, and the importance of knowing the data in your market. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

- Background and Start in CRE (1:44)

- Government Role in NY Housing (4:23)

- Biggest Challenges in Multifamily Sector (6:45)

- Buyers' Appetite for New Debt (11:43)

- Navigating the Market and Continuing to Grow (19:00)

- Affordable Housing World in NY (24:07)

- Office-to-residential Conversions (28:41)

- 1031 Exchanges, NNN Leases & Cap Rates (30:49)

- Multifamily Opportunities in NYC (36:48)

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This episode is sponsored by EisnerAmper.

In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we unpack recent economic, manufacturing PMI, and job data to debate if it is an indication that we’re sticking the soft landing or a false narrative. We discuss the billion- dollar commercial real estate (CRE) headlines of the week from Valley National Bank and Deutsche Bank, as well as a $1 billion venture to identify and support office-to-residential projects. We dive into Trepp’s CMBS Delinquency Report, with the office delinquency rate surpassing 10% in November. We close the episode with credit and transaction stories, including Burlington opening 100 net new stores in 2025, large acquisitions, and a retail and parking loan sent to special servicing. Tune in now.  

Episode Notes 

- Economic Update (0:56)

- Valley National Bank $1B CRE Loans Sale (7:56)

- Deustche Bank Sale of $1 Billion CRE Loan Portfolio (10:11)

- Office-to-residential Projects Fund (13:42)

- Trepp CMBS Delinquencies (19:02)

- Burlington Opening 100 New Stores in 2025 (31:15)

- Spinoso Real Estate Group Purchasing White Marsh Mall (25:27)

- Seattle Retail and Parking Loan Sent to Special Servicing (33:50)

- $79.5 Million Central Park of Lisle Loan Lowered (35:41)

- $48.2 Million Cedar Crest Professional Park Loan Slashed (37:50)

- Hotel Purchased in Chelsea NYC (40:31)

- $82 Million Apartment Sale in Tampa (43:52)

- Programming Notes (45:28)

- Shoutouts (47:40)

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