In this episode, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Coleman during Trump’s second term inauguration when markets are closed. Bob discusses significant developments concerning Exchange for Physical Premiums (EFPs) in precious metals markets. The increasing EFP premiums stem from tariff concerns since Trump’s campaign days, causing New York futures selling and London physical buying, creating a spread between the spot price and futures price. Trump’s rhetoric on fair trade and potential tariffs could impact the ‘product of origin’, potentially affecting short positions expecting delivery to exchanges and could lead to major losses.

Bob also touches upon the lack of retail interest in gold and silver markets despite their proximity to all-time highs due to changing consumer demographics, unregulated industry practices, and misleading sales tactics. He further discusses potential implications of tariffs on precious metals markets and the shift towards physical metal becoming a more price-dominant theme.

Additionally, they explore the impact of investor behavior and supply constraints on platinum and potential implications of the U.S. administration’s involvement in cryptocurrencies. The conversation also highlights increasing demand for precious metals during the Democratic administrations due to concerns over spending and taxes, potential effects of tariffs on the financial system and gold market, volatility in the economy, and central banks’ actions as significant themes for 2025, and the possibility of creating stablecoins backed by precious metals.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:38 – Trump, Trade & EFP
5:22 – Tariffs & Origins
10:28 – 50+ Year EFP Chart
17:30 – EFP Premiums & Covid
20:14 – Retail Precious Metals
25:45 – Gold & Silver EFP?
29:15 – Platinum Markets
33:18 – Metals Vs. Meme Coins
37:10 – Crypto Credibility
39:37 – Monetary Restraint
44:55 – 2024 Physical Demand
47:13 – U.S. Tariffs & C.B. Gold
50:07 – Uncertainties & Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

• Tariffs could drive up EFP premiums in the precious metals market, leading to significant losses and tightened liquidity.
• Changing consumer demographics, industry practices, and sales tactics decreased retail interest in gold and silver markets despite high prices.
• Potential tariffs, investor behavior, supply constraints, and U.S. involvement in cryptocurrencies could influence metals markets and trends for 2025.

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusid
Website: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Presentation: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/blog/deciphering-the-complex-world-of-precious-metal-derivatives-ucits-and-the-shift-from-physical-to-paper-gold-silver

Bob Coleman is a Registered Investment Advisor since 1992. In 2001, he founded Profits Plus Capital Management, LLC (RIA) and Dollars and Sense Growth Fund. Recognizing the necessity for physical metal storage, he founded Idaho Armored Vaults and Gold Silver Vault in 2008. They are a distinguished and respected leader in the precious metals industry specializing in storage, transportation, shipping logistics, and security.

Tom welcomes back Mel Mattison to discuss the economic implications of the new administration under Trump’s second term. He expresses skepticism towards government-released data such as CPI numbers and raises concerns about rising inflation and interest rates due to massive deficit spending and debt refinancing. Mel estimates approximately seven to eight trillion dollars will be issued this year for these purposes, with uncertainty surrounding who will buy all this debt. He suggests real inflation numbers may be higher than reported, potentially leading to significant increases in interest rates. The U.S., with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120%, faces a major concern regarding unsustainable levels of interest expenses.

Mel shares his concerns about the historical parallels between the current high debt-to-GDP ratio and that of the post-World War II era, when reductions in debt came from a combination of surprise inflation and interest rate manipulations. The need for fiscal sustainability is discussed, with maintaining a 3% deficit to GDP ratio suggested. However, achieving this through cuts alone is considered unrealistic due to the significant role government spending plays in the economy.

The possibility of a debt reset under new Treasury Secretary Scott Besson is explored, with the need for independence from China’s supply chains and essential goods emphasized due to global security competition. The potential for gold and Bitcoin as neutral reserve assets is proposed, along with revaluing gold certificates held by the Federal Reserve and a move towards these assets to lead to significant increases in value.

Mel discusses Bitcoin potentially decoupling from risk assets like QQQ this year due to increasing institutional adoption. Potential consequences of a global debt crisis include a revaluation of currencies through gold or Bitcoin, and economic wartime goals setting the stage for inflationary impulses to return. The need for controlling interest rates and addressing inflation is emphasized, with potential consequences including debt repression, a gold certificate revaluation, and the promotion of stablecoins. Mel predicts a significant crisis leading to market pullbacks and recoveries, while acknowledging the urgency to tackle deficit issues due to their increasing impact on tax receipts and interest expenses.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:44 – Economic Strength
6:20 – U.S. Debt Holders
11:33 – Debt & GDP Extremes
15:20 – DOGE Cuts & Deficits
21:18 – Debt Reset & BRICS
28:08 – Gold Cert. Valuations
31:43 – BTC & Gold Potential
35:53 – Global Debt & Reserves
39:16 – Tariffs Purpose & Trump
42:50 – Inflation & Oil Trends
46:56 – Trump Power Plays
51:34 – Equity Markets Outlook
56:35 – Jeffrey Gundlach
59:13 – 2025 Possibilities
1:01:23 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Website: https://www.MelMattison.com
Twitter: https://x.com/MelMattison1
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/melmattison/

Mel Mattison is a writer, investor, and financial services veteran. Leveraging over twenty years’ experience in the realm of high finance, he brings real-world authenticity to his fictional narratives. Mel combines this insider knowledge with a critical eye toward the economic forces that shape all our lives. With a knack for deconstructing jargon and making the complex understandable, he sheds light on the sometimes dark and confusing corners of finance. Mel holds an MBA from Duke University and studied creative writing at Loyola University Chicago. His recent novel, Quoz: A Financial Thriller, delivers an epic ride packed with action, intrigue, and a healthy dose of economic realism.

Tom Bodrovics hosts both Bob Thompson from Raymond James and Larry McDonald, creator of the Bear Traps Report, for a discussion on inflation trends in the G7 economies. They emphasize the unprecedented $16 trillion debt increase since 2008 due to fiscal and monetary responses to crises, which has led to significant inflationary pressures, particularly in energy costs. They argue that the market’s response is putting pressure on long-term bonds and the US currency, potentially requiring a hard asset tie for stability.

They also discuss the implications of a strong US dollar for Trump’s economic goals, with some factions favoring a weaker dollar. A strong dollar negatively affects U.S. manufacturing exports, hurts companies with sales outside the United States, and forces the Fed to buy bonds, potentially leading to inflation and an economy weakening.

Central banks are increasing their gold purchases and shifting away from US treasuries due to sanctions and mistrust in the US government, which could negatively impact the dollar’s strength. Gold stocks have underperformed the S&P 500, but may offer asymmetrical returns as interest rates remain low and inflation normalizes at a higher level.

They discuss historical gold investing regimes and the transition back towards the one where real rates are favorable for gold. They emphasize the importance of recognizing trends, being ahead of the power curve, and investing accordingly. The possibility of the Federal Reserve’s inflation target shifting towards 3% is discussed, which could benefit certain investment portfolios in sectors like industrial, metals, materials, oil, and gas.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:48 – Fed & Inflation
10:18 – Financial Conditions?
13:13 – Misplaced Optimism?
18:13 – Strong Dollar & Trump?
24:56 – C.B. Gold Buying
31:30 – Sectors & Momentum
34:30 – Entry Points & Markets
36:37 – Bull Markets
42:03 – Strong/Weak Bull
42:54 – Energy Demand & Silver
49:03 – Rates & Fed Targets
52:30 – Stocks Vs Commodities
55:17 – Mining Clock Cycle
57:18 – Concluding Thoughts
1:01:13 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

• Unprecedented debt increase contributes to inflationary pressures, particularly in energy costs.
• Strong US dollar negatively impacts U.S. manufacturing exports and forces Fed bond buying.
• Gold stocks offer asymmetrical returns as interest rates remain low and inflation normalizes.

Bob Thompson Links:
Twitter: https://x.com/bobthompsonrj
Website: https://www.raymondjames.ca/
Website: https://bobthompson.ca

When Bob Thompson started university, he thought he was headed towards a career in medicine. He graduated from Simon Fraser University with a Bachelor of Science (BSc), but with his family facing financial adversity, achieving financial security became first an interest and then a passion. Bob is now a Certified Investment Manager and Accredited Investment Fiduciary professional with more than 20 years of experience in the financial services industry.

Over the course of his career, Bob has established himself as a respected portfolio manager and one of Canada’s leading authorities on customized investments. With an in-depth knowledge and scientific approach to financial markets, Bob and his team help institutions and select clients to meet their specialized financial goals.

He has won numerous awards for portfolio management, and has established himself as a sought after media resource and industry speaker. He is the author of Stock Market Superstars: Secrets of Canada’s Top Stock Pickers, a “must-read” for both investors and portfolio managers. His perspective and insights into markets have been featured in Maclean’s, the Globe and Mail and the Financial Post, and he is a popular guest on Bloomberg Canada, Business News Network and CBC News, among others. Bob is also a frequent guest speaker at international investment conferences on portfolio strategy and in specialized investments.

Bob is actively involved with the community as a member of Canada Company: an organization committed to developing and supporting initiatives that help our men and women of the Canadian Armed Forces. He has also been a licensed pilot since the age of 16, and notes flying as one of his passions in life.

Larry McDonald Links:
Website: http://thebeartrapsreport.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/convertbond
Amazon: https://tinyurl.com/2capfzt9

Larry McDonald is a New York Times bestselling author, CNBC contributor, and Political Risk Expert. He is also the creator of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent Macro Research Platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas.

Thought-provoking Larry McDonald presents his captivating views on the Trump Administration, U.S. Financial Crisis, European Sovereign Debt, and China’s Economic Meltdown – spiced with actionable risk indicators, risk management lessons, and sprinkled with humor.

In 2016, Larry McDonald joined ACG Analytics in Washington D.C., as a partner with a unique skill set, as one of today’s leading political policy risk consultants and strategists. From 2011 – 2016, he was Managing Director and Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at Society Generale.

In 2010 he founded an investment research firm which publishes the The Bear Traps Report, focused on Political and Systemic Risk with actionable trade ideas. Larry makes weekly appearances on CNBC as a contributor focused on political and economic risk and opportunities.

In late 2006, as Vice President at Lehman Brothers, he led his team into betting against the subprime mortgage market, profiting the firm over $2 billion before its demise. In 2009, he wrote the international bestseller A Colossal Failure of Common Sense, The Inside Story of The Collapse of Lehman Brothers – translated into 12 languages, selling over 400,000 copies.

Prior to working at Lehman, he was the co-founder of Convertbond.com, a website that provided convertible securities information with news, valuation, terms and analysis tools for convertible bonds, convertible preferred stocks, and other convertible securities. Convertbond was acquired by Morgan Stanley in 1999.

Larry McDonald’s proprietary risk indicators and risk management lessons are designed for Family Offices, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Hedge-Funds, and any investment group working to avoid the dangerous pitfalls in the post-Lehman financial markets.

McDonald was featured in the Academy Award winning documentary: Inside Job, and also featured in National Geographic’s award winning documentary: The 2000’s. He is a regular contributor on Bloomberg TV and Radio, Forbes, CNBC and Fox Business.

Larry has delivered over 125 keynote speeches worldwide. He details the complexities of the political policy implications of the Trump Administration and their relationship with Congress. Larry also adds the Lehman factor to his speeches, ‘why it was allowed to fail’, and above all – valuable risk indicators which help investors avoid the aftershocks that continue to rock the global economy until today. His presentations are thought-provoking and captivating.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest Laurent Lequeu to the show. Laurent is an indpendent financial consultant and publisher of the Macro Butler Substack. Togther they delve into macroeconomic themes for the year ahead, focusing primarily on the business cycle and its impact on the US economy. The U.S., currently experiencing an inflationary boom due to low interest rates and increased government spending, is expected to face changes with the incoming presidency of Trump, particularly in terms of tariffs which could shift the economy from a boom phase to possibly an inflationary bust.

Using ratios such as S&P to oil, gold to treasuries, and S&P to gold, they evaluate the current economic status in the U.S. and globally. However, potential tariffs could lead to higher costs for U.S. corporations and lower consumer confidence, impacting equity markets and the overall economy.

Despite being in a potentially stagflationary environment by 2022, the US may face an inflationary bust in 2025, with economic trends like unemployment, manufacturing, and inflationary numbers having global implications. Geopolitical events such as U.S.-Russia relations, tensions in the Middle East, and potential war in Asia could also surprise many.

Laurent suggests investing in equities and gold with a significant portion allocated to physical gold during uncertain economic conditions, while managing cash through short-term investment-grade US dollars bonds. He predicts higher treasury yields this year and suggested looking at commodities’ performance relative to gold for potential re-ratings.

Laurent expresses doubts about Bitcoin’s utility for preserving wealth and encouraged risk management and minimizing drawdowns for investors in the coming years. They also touch upon China’s economic situation, the U.S. remaining the strongest major economy due to energy independence and relative political stability. He suggests investing in sectors like oil and gas, aerospace and defense, and perhaps Canadian gold miners should the regulatory environment improve.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:39 – Different Perspective
2:28 – U.S. Business Cycle
5:30 – Tariff Proposals
7:22 – Stagflation & Trends
10:28 – Conflicts & Risks
14:33 – Powell & Trump
18:34 – Fed & Liquidity
19:40 – Global Econ. Outlook
22:44 – Which Assets When
24:52 – Gold Equities?
29:00 – Gold & Currencies
31:44 – Golden Ratios?
33:30 – Uranium & Energy?
36:56 – Bitcoin/Gold Ratio
40:16 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

• US economy facing potential shift from boom to bust due to Trump’s tariffs.
• Investing in equities, gold, and short-term bonds during uncertain economic times.
• US to face stagflationary environment by 2022, possible inflationary burst in 2025.

Guest Links:
Substack: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/
X: https://x.com/TheMacroButler

Laurent Lequeu, an independent financial consultant based in Singapore, specializes in managing wealth for High-Net-Worth Individuals. With a career spanning West and East, Laurent analyzes the world through the lens of the business cycle and its impact on asset class performance in a multi polar world. He also shares his insights through The Macro Butler, a global macro newsletter launched in January 2024.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Tom Luongo, Tom is the producer of the Gold, Goats and Guns newsletter and blog, editor at Newsmax Ultimate Wealth Report, and contributor to Financial Intelligence Report. The Tom’s discuss the significant developments during Trump’s first term, judge appointments, and Europe’s economic instability.

Luongo reflects on the impact of Trump’s appointment of conservative judges and the Democrats’ efforts to maintain control in certain jurisdictions. He discusses Europe’s economic collapse, with concerns about the Euro’s free fall, instability in the UK, US-German bond spreads, and tensions between the US and Russia.

Luongo discusses Trump’s options regarding a weaker dollar through protection tariffs, deregulation, and lower cost of capital. He explores market volatility due to central bank interventions and speculates on the implications of inflation, political tensions, and changes in power in Canada.

Regarding oil, Luongo critiques undervalued prices and their impact on various economic aspects. He shares his thoughts on Judy Shelton’s idea involving gold as collateral on the yield curve as a potential solution to the country’s fiscal crisis.

Luongo encourages listeners to focus on solutions rather than problems and discusses differences in economic policies under Powell-led Federal Reserves between Trump and Harris administrations. He expects that 2025 will be a new type of crazy.

Timestamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:00 – Trumps 2nd Term
11:07 – Euro Collapse Effects
20:02 – Trump & Weaker Dollar
27:56 – Dollar Assets & Markets
39:46 – Views On America
49:00 – DOGE & Reforming Gov’t
59:20 – Commodity Nations
1:05:35 – Inflation & Trump?
1:18:00 – Powell’s Actions
1:21:18 – Restructuring NATO?
1:25:24 – Peak Oil & Incentives
1:31:56 – Judy Shelton & Gold
1:36:50 – Gold Redemptions?
1:44:55 – Derailing Trump
1:51:29 – 2025 A New Crazy
1:55:00 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

• Trump’s first term marked by conservative judge appointments influencing the court system.
• Europe’s economic instability causing concerns, potential impact on US investors, and tensions with Russia.
• Tom advocates for America to save money through reducing overseas spending, closing military bases, and accepting losses.

Guest Links:
Website: https://tomluongo.me
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGuns
Cornerstone Forum: https://www.showpass.com/cornerstone25/

Tom Luongo is a Former Research Chemist, Amateur Dairy Goat Farmer, Anarcho-Libertarian, and Obstreperous Austrian Economist whose work can be found on sites like ZeroHedge, Lewrockwell.com, Bitcoin Magazine, and Newsmax Media.

Professionally, he has spent a lot of his waking hours inside various analytic laboratories testing your water and soil for contaminants. He watched an industry be created by government fiat and destroyed in the same manner.

He ran for Florida House once and got 2.7% of the vote on Guy Fawkes Day and says, “I’ve since grown up a lot.”

Then he spent 5+ years solving the puzzle of an electroless Nickel-Boron coating that has intriguing wear-resistance properties. Too bad, the coating was better than the company’s business model.

Today, he is the publisher of the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Newsletter, in which he attempts to connect the false narratives of geopolitics to viable long-term investment theses.

As for politics, his position is well-known through his past writings at Lewrockwell.com, Seeking Alpha, and the aforementioned erstwhile blogs.

To sum up: “Individuals are the only people with enough knowledge about their own lives to have a hope of making the right decisions for themselves, and no amount of guidance or central planning can help that process along.”

He built the house he lives in and raises goats and milks them.

In short, he says, “I’m a libertarian who distrusts all human organizations larger than a two-handed game of poker.”

Lastly, He states, “I own a few guns.”

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back long-term contrarian investor and entrepreneur Simon Mikhailovich for a discussion centered around first principles, focusing on precious metals, commodities, economics, geopolitics, trade, and monetary matters. The conversation begins with the acknowledgement of high levels of uncertainty and complexity, making accurate forecasts challenging.

Mikhailovich distinguishes between speculating on precious metals versus using them as a reserve asset. For speculation, market drivers are pertinent. However, for gold as a reserve asset, its unique property as the only financial asset without a counterparty makes it inversely correlated to confidence and trust in other people’s promises.

The conversation touches upon the concept of the fourth turning and where we are in this cycle. Mikhailovich underscores the significance of understanding current problems before predicting future demand for gold. He also discusses how post-World War II arrangements have led to the United States’ hegemonic role economically and militarily, and the start of financialization and globalization.

Mikhailovich raises concerns about understated inflation and its potential impact on real economic growth or contraction. He also highlights the lack of clear guidance from Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell in navigating through uncertain conditions.

They explore the winners and losers of the global economy, with tactical gains for Wall Street investors, technology industries, and certain countries like China. However, working people have been losing due to job outsourcing. Mikhailovich mentions China’s growing power and desire for independence from the United States as potential challenges to the current economic order.

The conversation delves into geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with borders becoming less inviolable after World War One and World War Two. The Suez Canal’s declining traffic and resulting increased costs serve as an example of inflationary pressures.

Mikhailovich discusses the significance of gold as a financial asset and its increasing demand, particularly from China and other countries, as a response to a loss of confidence in the global financial system. He also mentions the relationship between digital currencies like Bitcoin and the US dollar, suggesting that regulatory actions could impact their independence from the dollar and the broader financial system. Lastly, Simon emphasizes understanding the complexities, considering various data points, focusing on resiliency, and looking at first principles.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:44 – Uncertainties & Metals
4:22 – The Fourth Turning
9:00 – Statistics & Reality
17:00 – Wars, Rumors & Borders
26:47 – Economic Fragility
33:55 – Gold & Eastern Buying
38:30 – Trump & U.S. Dollar
41:18 – Gold & Confidence
50:07 – Trump & Bond Markets
53:56 – World Has Changed
1:03:02 – Inflation Vs. Panic
1:05:20 – Socialism & Competence
1:10:02 – A Serious Situation
1:13:13 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

• Gold as a reserve asset is inversely correlated to confidence in other people’s promises.
• Understanding current problems before predicting future demand for gold is crucial.
• Concerns about understated inflation, lack of clear guidance from Jay Powell, and China’s growing power pose challenges.

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://c.com/S_Mikhailovich
Website: https://www.bullionreserve.com

Simon A. Mikhailovich is a co-founder, lead manager of The Bullion Reserve, and a director. Mr. Mikhailovich is an entrepreneur and contrarian investor who predicted and profited from the financial crises of 2000 and 2008. Before co-founding TBR in 2014, Mr. Mikhailovich co-founded Eidesis Capital, a special situations investment firm. Between 1998 and 2014, the Eidesis team deployed over $2.5B of capital through special opportunity funds focused on high yield corporate bonds and loans, credit derivatives, distressed CDOs and MBS, and gold. Previously, Mr. Mikhailovich was a Portfolio Manager at Falcon Asset Management, overseeing alternative investments in hard assets, including oil and gas properties, timberlands, and agribusiness. During the credit cycle of the early 1990s, he headed a workouts’ team responsible for restructuring multiple businesses in North America and Europe. Mr. Mikhailovich received a M.S. in Business (Finance) from the University of Baltimore and a B.S. from Johns Hopkins University.

Tom welcomes Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, to discuss commodities and their prospects for 2025. McGlone acknowledges challenges such as lower oil and grain prices, harming producers due to a global surplus and decreasing Chinese demand driven by electric vehicle adoption. He anticipates continued declines in industrial metals like copper and explores geopolitical risks, particularly market implications of tensions between the US and adversaries – China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. McGlone suggests gold as a prudent investment due to its performance during volatile markets when stocks and Bitcoin underperform.

McGlone discusses technological advancements and their impact on the economy. He suggests an investment strategy of rotating between gold and Bitcoin at highs and lows based on their current divergence in performance. McGlone expresses concerns over Bitcoin’s excessive ETF inflows as a sign of market speculation. Regarding silver, he suggests the silver-gold ratio should be higher based on volatility and historical patterns, with potential implications if China buys silver through ETFs to address economic challenges. Anticipating potential corrections in the US stock market, increased unemployment, and bond yield issues could lead to a different silver-gold ratio.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:47 – Commodities in 2025
3:22 – Global Demand Decline
5:08 – U.S. & China Deficits
10:38 – Commodities & Tariffs
16:34 – Bitcoin ‘Indicator’
20:22 – Tether & Treasuries
26:07 – Gold/Bitcoin Ratio
30:28 – ETF Demand & Flows
33:16 – Market Correction?
37:04 – 2025 Gold Target
39:42 – Thoughts on Silver
42:25 – Concluding Thoughts
43:45 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-mcglone-a8442513/

Mike McGlone is a senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, a unique research platform that provides context on industries, companies, and government policy, available on the Bloomberg Professional service at BI(GO). Mr. McGlone specializes in the broad investible commodity markets. Mr. McGlone joined Bloomberg in 2016 with over 25 years of futures and commodity trading and investing experience, beginning at the Chicago Board of Trade. Prior to joining Bloomberg, he was a head of US research at ETF Securities. Prior to ETF Securities, Mr. McGlone headed the commodity business at S&P Indices. His previous roles included head of futures research at ABN Amro and VP research, analyst, trader, sales at Aubrey G. Lanston / IBJ Futures.

Mr. McGlone has an MBA from DePaul University in Chicago and bachelor’s of science and arts degrees from Illinois State University. He is a CFA Charter holder and has earned a Financial Risk Manager designation.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Lobo Tiggre, the author and publisher of TheIndependentSpeculator.com. Lobo leads a team that provides independent due diligence and evaluations for investors, filling a role similar to consumer reports or brokers. He discusses the growth of their business despite industry downturns, reflecting on Rick Rule’s advice about building teams and filling different market niches.

The conversation shifts to macroeconomic topics, including the impact of fiscal dominance on monetary policy and potential economic consequences. Lobo shares his past prediction of a U.S. recession in 2024 being incorrect and credits Lynn Alden’s fiscal dominance thesis for ongoing deficit spending.

Lobo also explains the implications of soft landings, potential stagflation or reflationary economies, and the role of copper as an economic indicator. He emphasizes the importance of current market trends over ideological theories and due diligence in investment decisions. He shares his highest conviction trades for gold, uranium, and copper for various years, with copper being his top pick for 2025 based on bullish economic context and the favorable supply-demand fundamentals.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – The Gang of Rogues
5:16 – Macro Picture & Signs
9:40 – Fed & Fiscal Dominance
14:30 – Voting Harder
16:44 – Industrial Recession?
23:53 – Inflation Waves
32:14 – Dr. Copper?
36:57 – Fundamentals Matter?
42:00 – Copper Grades & Costs
45:45 – Pre Prod. Sweet Spot
52:20 – Promises Vs. Reality
55:14 – High Conviction Play
58:06 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

• Lobo’s team provides independent investment evaluations, filling a role like consumer reports or brokers.
• Macroeconomic topics discussed include fiscal dominance, recession predictions, and economic implications.
• Copper is his top pick for 2025 due to bullish economic context and favorable supply-demand fundamentals.

Guest Links:
Website: https://independentspeculator.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/duediligenceguy
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/

Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name “Louis James.” While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.

Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.

A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has “skin in the game” with them.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back former congressman Dr. Ron Paul from Texas and Liberty Report host to discuss the link between liberty and the economy. Dr. Paul insists that freer societies are more prosperous, advocating for a sound monetary policy as crucial for economic health. He condemns interventionist policies and criticizes the Federal Reserve’s manipulation of interest rates, citing 1921 as evidence of a hands-off approach leading to a better recovery from an economic downturn.

During the conversation, Dr. Paul expresses his aspiration to terminate the Federal Reserve and proposes steps towards accomplishing this goal, including repealing the Federal Reserve Act and enforcing the Constitution. Although he acknowledges that the process might not be easy due to the nation’s addiction to low-interest rates and easy money, he emphasizes the importance of recognizing inflation as a tax on people’s money and advocates for Fed auditing as a path to transparency.

Dr. Paul supports gold-backed bonds as a means of promoting fiscal restraint and offering individuals a valuable savings opportunity. He denounces tariffs as an ill-conceived solution for economic matters, suggesting instead the elimination of burdensome business regulations. Furthermore, Dr. Paul expresses concerns about government information’s lack of transparency and encourages citizens to educate themselves on constitutional principles in order to safeguard individual liberties.

Dr. Paul concludes by urging listeners to act upon their convictions and principles, underlining the significance of education in history and economics. He also presents his homeschooling curriculum as a substantial contribution to fostering individual liberty and countering excessive government control over education and healthcare. Ultimately, Dr. Paul underscores the importance of personal accountability and the risks of government intervention in diverse areas.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:36 – Economics of Liberty
3:24 – Government Efficiency
5:00 – Audit & End The Fed
12:58 – Shelton & Gold Bonds
14:36 – Tariffs & Regulations
23:12 – Accurate Information?
25:36 – What Should We Do?
27:29 – Wrap Up

Guest Links
Twitter: https://x.com/ronpaul
Website: http://www.ronpaullibertyreport.com/
Website: http:///ronpaulinstitute.org

Ron Paul is an American author, physician, and former politician. He was the U.S. Representative for Texas’ 14th and 22nd congressional districts. Ron represented the 22nd congressional district from 1976 to 1977 and from 1979 to 1985 and then represented the 14th congressional district, which included Galveston, from 1997 to 2013. On three occasions, he sought the United States presidency: as the Libertarian Party nominee in 1988 and as a candidate in the Republican primaries of 2008 and 2012. Paul is a critic of the federal government’s fiscal policies, especially the Federal Reserve and the tax policy, as well as the military-industrial complex and the War on Drugs. Paul has also been a vocal critic of mass surveillance policies such as the USA PATRIOT Act and the NSA surveillance programs. Paul was the first chairman of the conservative PAC Citizens for a Sound Economy and has been characterized as the “intellectual godfather” of the Tea Party movement.

A native of the Pittsburgh suburb of Green Tree, Pennsylvania, Paul is a graduate of Gettysburg College and the Duke University School of Medicine, where he earned his medical degree. He served as a flight surgeon in the U.S. Air Force from 1963 to 1968. In addition, Ron worked as an obstetrician-gynecologist from the 1960s to the 1980s. He became the first Representative in history to serve concurrently with a son or daughter in the Senate when his son, Rand Paul, was elected to the U.S. Senate from Kentucky in 2010.

Paul is a Senior Fellow of the Mises Institute and has been an active writer, publishing on the topics of political and economic theory and publicizing the ideas of economists of the Austrian School such as Murray Rothbard and Ludwig von Mises during his political campaigns. Paul has written many books on Austrian economics and classical liberal philosophy, beginning with The Case for Gold (1982) and including A Foreign Policy of Freedom (2007), Pillars of Prosperity (2008), The Revolution: A Manifesto (2008), End the Fed (2009) and Liberty Defined (2011).

Tom welcomes back Martin Armstrong from Armstrong Economics for a discussion on the geopolitical landscape and growing frustration with government. Armstrong expresses his belief in an increasing frequency of impactful events due to disillusionment with western governments. Martin delves into the deep state, historical examples of centralized governments leading to instability, and the need for decentralization and respect for individual sovereignty.

Armstrong shares personal experiences and insights about Trump and RFK’s anti-war stances. Martin touches upon historical issues, including World War II, communism, the Roman Empire, war causes, and the use of sanctions. Concerns are raised about unsustainable debt systems and their correlation with conflict.

Tom pivots the conversation to Argentina’s recent budget surplus, potential application in making cuts to U.S. government waste. Criticisms follow regarding Federal policies to undermine U.S. States and inact gun control.

Predictions for an economic depression by 2032 are shared, with discussions on differences between a recession and a depression, government debt defaults, interconnectedness of economies, and concerns over career politicians. The role of the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency, and potential implications for the world economy are also discussed.

China and Russia’s potential role in a global economic takeover, natural resources, the Ottoman Empire, monetary crises, gold on the yield curve, practical implications, gun control, authoritarianism, and vigilance are among other topics covered.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:35 – Many Geopolitical Shifts
12:32 – Trump & Ending Conflict
27:39 – Cutting Back Gov’t
36:30 – Civil Unrest Preps
46:15 – 2032 – The End Game
53:42 – Trump, BRICS, & Dollar
1:04:54 – Russia’s Resources
1:07:58 – Risks & Solutions
1:13:50 – Shelton & Gold Bonds
1:18:33 – National Guard Concerns
1:21:08 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

• Growing disillusionment with governments leads to increased impactful events: Armstrong emphasizes decentralization and respect for sovereignty to prevent global unrest.
• Trump, RFK’s anti-war stances discussed: Influence on NATO territories like Afghanistan and Ukraine, personal meetings recounted.
• Predictions of economic depression by 2032: Discussions on debt defaults, interconnected economies, and career politicians’ concerns.

Guest Links:
Website: http://armstrongeconomics.com
Twitter: https://x.com/strongeconomics
Facebook: https://facebook.com/martin.armstrong.167
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/ybtrslr9

Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries.

Armstrong progressed from gold coin investments to following commodity prices for precious metals. In 1973, he began publishing commodity market predictions as a hobby, and in 1983 Armstrong began accepting paid subscriptions for a forecast newsletter.

“In Armstrong’s view of the world where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster. He called Russia’s financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide, he reminds readers of his October 1997 prediction that the creation of the euro “will merely transform currency speculation into bond speculation,” leading to the system’s eventual collapse.”

His Website Armstrong Economics offers a unique perspective intended to educate the public and organizations on the global economic and political environment’s underlying trends. Their mission is to research historical cyclical trends.

Tom welcomes back Christopher Grove to the show. Chrisopher is President and Director of Commerce Resources and an expert on the rare earth element market. Despite China's lack of direct involvement in the export halt of germanium, gallium, and antimony to the U.S., it underscores Beijing's dominance in the sector. With the surge in demand for rare earth elements due to technology advancements, particularly permanent magnets for electric vehicles, no new significant producers have emerged since 2011-2012. Prices have reverted to levels last seen then as a result. China's manipulation of input feedstock prices has caused unease and encouraged nations to seek alternative rare earth element sources The US Department of Defense is investing in vertically integrated supply chains, as shown by the Defense Industrial Base Consortium and the Global Partnership Initiative. China's market dominance remains a concern but presents an opportunity for countries to invest in creating alternative sources. Chris discusses the challenges he faced as CEO of Commerce Resources, including high Canadian mining regulations and the repeal of the uptick rule on the Toronto Stock Exchange. This rule change has led to significant losses for resource companies when they release positive news. Grove plans to list Commerce Resources on the Australian stock exchange in late Q1 or early Q2 of 2025 as a potential solution to address this challenge. The discussion discusses the complexities and challenges of mining in Canada and importance of advocacy efforts to relevant government bodies. Commerce Resources is completing an updated preliminary economic assessment for its Ashram project and awaiting responses from grant opportunities in Canada and the United States. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:47 - Rare Earths & China8:15 - China & Processing11:33 - Western Deregulation?15:50 - Substitution18:59 - Recycling?19:57 - Adapting to China21:34 - Biggest Deposits?25:45 - Personal Challenges29:21 - Miners & Shorting34:52 - Canadian Challenges38:15 - Commerce Resources41:33 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode China's dominance in rare earth elements poses challenges but also opportunities. No significant new rare earth producers have emerged since 2011-2012. US Defense Department investing in vertical supply chains to reduce dependence on China. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/commercerescceWebsite: https://commerceresources.com/ Mr. Christopher Grove is President and Director of Commerce Resources since September 2014. Previously, he worked as Corporate Communications for Commerce since 2004 and has significant contacts within the financial communities in North America and Europe. Mr. Grove joined the Commerce Resource board in 2012 and has been active in representing the company abroad.