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It was a legendary Tesla conference call!! Elon Musk sounded insanely focused and dialed in as he explained Tesla is planning to launch an self-driving robotaxi service in Austin in June of THIS YEAR. He also clarified he expects Tesla to launch full self driving in many regions across the US in 2025. Additionally, with Optimus and Cybercab Elon retierates he believes not only that Tesla will be the world's most valuable company ... but more valuable than the world's next 5 largest companies combined. Wow. As crazy as it sounds, it just might be true! What are your thoughts on the call? I left feeling very very bullish, feeling the confidence from Elon and the team. 0:00 Intro 0:44 Elon Opening Remarks 13:29 SAY Retail Questions 22:37 Analyst Questions 25:04 Gali Final Thoughts/Rant My X: / gfilche HyperChange Patreon :) / hyperchange Disclaimer: I'm long Tesla stock and nothing in this show is financial advice. Here are my notes from the conference call (note, may not be accurate!!): Tesla Q4 2024 Earnings Call Notes INTRO- ELON OPENING REMARKS -Q4 set record, delivered cars at rate of almost 2M cars/year -Model Y best-selling vehicle of any kind on earth (elon focused and talking quickly) -10Xing on autonomy, not doubling -many investments made this year that will bear immense fruit in the future, for AI -see a path for Tesla to the worlds most valuable company by far, worth more than the next 5 companies combined, difficult but achievable path -overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous robots -setting up for an epic 2026, and ridiculously good 2027 and 2028 -meeting FSD now is like meeting a toddler -human intuition is linear, we’re seeing exponential progress -#1 recommendation is try it -typical passenger car has 10 hours of use out of 168, when its autonomous, itll be used for 55 hours a week … can deliver packages in the middle of thenight, or supply restaurants, all hours of the day or night. 5X increase in utility -more on self driving, continued improvements in safety numbers, much safer to use FSD -V14 will be another big step from V13 -launched CORTEX training cluster at Giga Austin, big step for FSD, continue to invest in training needs -Optimus training needs are about 10X what’s needed for the car -cost of training is dropping dramatically over time -Optimus has potential to be north of $10T in revenue, can put a lot training compute into that situation, even pumping $500B into it would be a good deal -future very different from the past, incredible inflection point in human history -proof is in the pudding -launching in June this year in Austin, already have cars moving autonomously in Fremont, thousands of cars per day driving, soon in Austin then elsewhere in the world -toe in the water at first to make sure everything is cool, but we have a general solution for autonomy , then put a few more toes, then a foot. Safety of the general public and those in the car as the top priority -with regard to Optimus, making insane revenue projections that sound insane, i realize that. But i think they will prove to be accurate -several thousand bots made this year, they will be doing useful things by the end of this year, im confidence, production design one at the tesla factories, then will learn for production design two -ramp optimus production faster than anything has ever launched, doesn’t take very many years before we’er making 100M of these things per year , 500% growth per year -tried using all these suppliers to get it to build Optimus, but nothing worked, had to build it internally from first principles, the hand is increibdle -long term Optimus will be the value of the company -back to Energy,/earth, -energy storage is a big deal, becoming more important, enables far greater energy output to the grid than is currently possible. -grid has no storage, designed for peak storage, lots of waste -once you have grid energy storage, the potential of the grid is unlocked, at least double -this will drive demand of battery packs as to as much as we can possibly make -shanghai factory starting operation, starting another factory -cant shoot our selves in the foot, battery capacity can only go into storage or mobility, so always making that tradeoff -demand for total Gigawatt hours for batteries, transportation or stationary will grow in a very big way over time 2025 a pivotal year for tesla, launch of full self driving, biggest year in tesla history, maybe even bigger than first car or model s, 3 or y … probably most important year in tesla’s history I don’t even know who is in 2nd place in real world AI, would need a telescope to see them for rest of notes see pinned comment below!!!
Tesla has released Q4 2024 earnings!! The financial results were a little disappointing, but the guidance of "volume production" for Cybercab in 2026 has investors excited, with shares jumping back above $400 after hours. The update is full of new financials, guidance about the updated Model Y, Tesla Semi, energy storage business, Cybercab rollout, Optimus progress and so much more! Let me know what you think of the results in the comments below!! Tesla shareholder letter: https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla... Tesla financials on Main Street Data: https://mainstreetdata.com/TSLA My X: / gfilche HyperChange Patreon :) / hyperchange Disclaimer: I'm long Tesla stock and this show is not financial advice.
Tesla stock closed the day at $428 per share, representing a valuation of $1.5T. Reflecting on this milestone, I wanted to analyze what Tesla's financials were and what would be needed to justify a valuation of this level, and beyond. My high level theory is, Tesla is in a very unique spot. The core business is likely to generate $9B in GAAP operating income for the full year of 2024. Based on today's closing price, that is a valuation of 167X price/earnings. A little steep. Buying at today's $1.5T price implies an expected valuation of $3-5T in the future (a potential double or triple on your money). To justify this, Tesla will need about $100B in earnings. So that is my questions? When does Tesla hit this number? How fast do Cybercab & Optimus contribute to the company's earnings and cashflow? Will the market continue keeping an Elon Musk premium on the stock forever, or could it decrease? Let me know what you think in the comments below!
G 2 a Milly hit the 1 year mark! Woo!! In this video series I'm documenting building a stock portfolio, open-sourced. Now we are 366 days in, and the portfolio is worth $38,673, with 64% in Tesla, 26% in Airbnb and 10% in Coinbase. 2025 is bringing a ton of interesting dynamics to markets, we discuss the post-election Trump Bump, Tesla's robotaxi ambitions, what Airbnb will do next ... and most of all is it worth owning anything besides Tesla stock??? You tell me in the comments below!! My X: / gfilche HyperChange Patreon :) / hyperchange Disclaimer: I'm long Airbnb, Coinbase and Tesla and this show is not financial advice.
Tesla's Q4 2024 deliveries are hot off the press. Tesla delivered 495,000 cars in Q4, and just under 1.8M for the full year. Additionally, it was a huge quarter and year for energy storage with deployments hitting 11GWh in Q4. The stock was down about 6% on these numbers, after its huge run up in the final months of 2024. What are your thoughts on the numbers? Cybertruck weaker than expected? Nothing matters with Cybercab around the corner? Semi ramping next year? Let me know in the comments below. Tesla financials & KPI's on Main Street Data: https://mainstreetdata.com/home Official Tesla Q4 2024 Production & Deliveries report: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/te... My X: / gfilche HyperChange Patreon :) / hyperchange Disclaimer: I'm long Tesla stock and this show is not financial advice.
Elon Musk is the leader of 6 major companies changing our world: Tesla, SpaceX, X (formerly Twitter), XAI, Neuralink and The Boring Company. Today his companies are valued between $1.5-$2.5T depending on who you ask, and we think they are on track to be worth $100+ when it's all said and done. This is the Roman Empire of Capitalism, being built before our eyes. In this episode, me and Aidan break down all of Elon's companies one by one and explain why he started them and the impact they are making. From Tesla's journey in making EVs mainstream, to now getting ready for self-driving. SpaceX's incredible breakthrough of the resuable rocket, Neuralinks first brain chip patient, XAI competing with OpenAI and raising $6B, X's transformation into the global town square ... and SO MUCH MORE. This conversation was a blast, let me know what you think in the comments below!! 0:00 Roman Empire of Capitalism 5:40 Tesla 45:45 SpaceX & Starlink 1:15:02 XAI 1:26:20 X (formerly Twitter) 1:33:15 Neuralink 1:41:05 The Boring Company 1:47:31 X Holding Company, Merging the Empire 1:49:53 Elon Musk as a person. The DaVinci of our time Follow Aidan on X: https://x.com/MrGoldBro My X: / gfilche HyperChange Patreon :) / hyperchange Disclaimer: We're long Tesla & SpaceX. Nothing in this show is financial advice. We're not financial advisors. Always do your own research.
A new era of HyperChange is upon; The American Technological Renaissance. In this long-form podcast, we discuss our optimism surrounding the potential of using technology to improve our daily lives. We hold nothing back in this episode, covering Elon Musk's role in the new American government under Donald Trump, the idea of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), what that means for the future of American builders and innovation in our country. We discuss Super-Intelligence AI apps like Grok, and ChatGPT, Tesla's dominance in self driving cars and humanoid robots, SpaceX's ushering in of the new space age where we return to the moon, Bryan Johnson living forever, the potential of gene editing, fixing our food system, how Bitcoin and crypto are changing fiat currencies, and so much more. We would love to know your thoughts in the comments below!! Follow Aidan on X: https://x.com/MrGoldBro My X: https://twitter.com/gfilche HyperChange Patreon :) https://www.patreon.com/hyperchange Disclaimer: Nothing in this show is financial advice. Aidan and I are the owners of HyperGuap Atlantis, a VC company that invests in many of the startups names. We are also investors in Tesla, SpaceX and other companies mentioned. We are not financial advisors.
Rivian Q3 results have arrived! Revenues dipped below $1B/quarter for the first time since 2023, and gross margins got even worse to negative 45%. The company is still guiding for positive gross margins in Q4 2024 which would be a major win for the company, and I'd be extremely impressed if they hit. My biggest concern when looking at the stock is the sharecount is increasing at an accelerating pace. Up to 1,014M shares in Q3, up 6.5% in just a year. This could accelerate if the share price doesn't go up, causing a dilution spiral.
Airbnb Q3 2024 results are hot off the press! Revenue grew 10% to $3.7B (all time high), and the company is planning to launch 1-2 new $1B+ revenue businesses next year, and every year going forward. On the conference call Brian Chesky kept comparing Airbnb today to Amazon when they were selling just books. Chesky sees the company expanding well beyond travel into new products and services. This will mean investments in growth will ramp next year. Airbnb is moving to be on offense and growth mode, and exciting inflection point. Let me know what you think in the comments below! $ABNB
Donald Trump has just won the US Presidential election. Tesla stock is up 15% to its highest level in more than a year. What does this new American era mean for Tesla investors? A lot of the regulatory scrutiny (FSD, Elon's Pay Package) seems like it will go away. The regulatory approval path for FSD / Cybercab got way easier. And mainly, I think investors are just hyped because it means Elon and Tesla will be left alone to execute on their massive vision. There will be volatility, and it's way to early to tell how this will all play out. But things are shaping up to be a very bright future if Elon can work well with the new Trump administration. Let me know your thoughts below!! My X: / gfilche HyperChange Patreon :) / hyperchange Disclaimer: I'm long Tesla Stock. I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice.
Interview with Amit (aka @amitinvesting ), where we discuss Palantir's valuation and growth prospects, I pitch him on Airbnb stock, we talk about Tesla's Optimus bot, the upcoming election effect on markets and finally on Robinhood stock. It was a blast to scheme with Amit, who does livestreams on his channel for the market open. He has also become the voice of retail shareholders for Robinhood and Palantir and interviewed both CEOs. Give him a follow!
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