Donald Trump's first stint as president – with his “America First” stance and isolationist foreign policy – disrupted relations between the US and Europe, especially over NATO, trade, and the climate. Now the world is faced with further challenges, such as the war in Ukraine: and Trump’s return could prompt European countries to seek greater military and economic independence from the US while collaborating to become a more unified front.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, head of ECFR’s Paris office; Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office; Anna Kuchenbecker, ECFR’s senior director of strategic partnerships; Maria Simeonova, head of ECFR’s Sofia office; and Arturo Varvelli, head of ECFR’s Rome office, to provide a view from the ECFR capitals. How have they reacted to the election result? How should their country governments prepare for Trump? Which challenges does Trump's return to the White House pose for Ukraine in the wider context of European security? How might Trump’s return affect the economy, escalate trade tensions, and reshape relations with China? And, crucially, what does his reelection mean for Europe?

The podcast was recorded on 13 November 13 2024

Bookshelf:

Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term by Célia Belin, Jeremy Shapiro, and Majda Ruge

Trump’s return is terrible news for Ukraine. Europe should step into the breach – but will it? by Timothy Garton Ash

Art of the deal: Four ways Europeans can find new trade partners in the Trump era by Alberto Rizzi

Living in Trump’s world by Mark Leonard

Dangerous manoeuvers: How Israel and Iran are preparing for Trump 2.0 by Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Hugh Lovatt

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On 6 November, the same day that Donald Trump was re-elected as US president, Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed his minister of finance, Christian Lindner – and the country’s ‘traffic light’ coalition government collapsed. Since then, an interim government has been in place: but its future is uncertain amid a rapidly changing world.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe, ECFR’s editorial director, Janka Oertel, ECFR senior policy fellow and director of its Asia programme, and Jana Puglierin, senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Berlin office, to discuss the collapse of the German government coalition. What are the plans for the interim government? Who is Jörg Kukies? What happens if CDU leader Friedrich Merz doesn’t help Scholz out? What does the coalition collapse mean for budget, spending, and the debt break? And how will it impact Germany’s foreign policy, especially considering the war in Ukraine and Trump’s imminent return to the White House?

This podcast was recorded on 8 November 2024

Bookshelf:

Ein deutscher Kanzler: Olaf Scholz, der Krieg und die Angst | Der Kanzlerberichterstatter schreibt das Porträt des Kanzlers aus nächster Nähe by Daniel Brössler

No Trade Is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America's Workers by Robert Lighthizer

Freiheitsschock: Eine andere Geschichte Ostdeutschlands von 1989 bis heute by Ilko-Sascha Kowalczuk

Better firefighting: Readying Europe for an age between war and peace by Nicu Popescu and Laurence Boone

Democracy and war: Politics and Identity in a time of global threats by Norbert Röttgen

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The polls have closed, the counting is almost over, and it is certain: there will be a second Donald Trump administration. With his historic and unprecedent second victory, the Republican party not only won the electoral college, but also regained control of the Senate – and look set to gain control of the House of Representatives and win the popular vote, too. In swing states Trump’s voter based turned out in force, while demographic shifts away from the Democrats paint a gloomy picture for Kamala Harris.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, ECFR associate senior policy fellow, and Jeremy Shapiro, research director and ECFR’s US programme director, to discuss the results of the US election 2024. Who turned out for Trump and why? What did Trump do right and what did Harris do wrong? What will a second Trump administration mean for international relations and US foreign policy? How should European leaders respond to the changing political landscape in the US? And what mistakes should they avoid in the era of Trump 2.0?

This podcast was recorded on 6 November 2024

Bookshelf:

Polostan by Neal Stephenson

Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term by Célia Belin, Majda Ruge, and Jeremy Shapiro

Trust by Hernan Diaz

Leurs enfants après eux by Nicolas Mathieu

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The recent elections in Georgia and Moldova were marred by significant Russian interference, including disinformation campaigns and vote-buying. As the Kremlin seeks to undermine the candidate countries’ EU futures, Brussels needs to take action.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Tefta Kelmendi, deputy director of the ECFR Wider Europe Programme, and Nicu Popescu, distinguished policy fellow at ECFR, to discuss what was at stake in these elections. What do the results mean for Georgia and Moldova’s EU accession? How did disinformation schemes and vote-buying under Russian influence impact the votes? And what actions should the EU take in response?

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EU member states have voted to implement proposed tariffs of up to 45 per cent on Chinese electric vehicles. Germany was among five member states to vote against this, isolating itself among its counterparts. In response to the vote, China imposed anti-dumping measures on European brandy imports. But if geopolitical tensions escalate, the EU’s most substantial leverage might involve limiting China’s access to its markets.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais, ECFR geoeconomics programme lead, and Janka Oertel, director of ECFR’s Asia programme, to discuss the implications of EU economic sanctions on China. What does the vote mean for Beijing? Given Germany’s objection to EV tariffs, how might Berlin react to these measures? Does it have the potential to become a trade war? And what lessons on sanctions can Europeans learn from the Russia-Ukraine experience?

Bookshelf:

Hard, fast, and where it hurts: Lessons from Ukraine related sanctions for a Taiwan conflict scenario by Agathe Demarais

The Idea of China by Mark Leonard, Alicia Bachulska, and Janka Oertel

A Midsummer’s Equation: A detective Galileo novel by Keigo Higashino

This podcast was recorded on 18 October 2024

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Since the Sudanese civil war began in 2023, millions of people have been displaced, and thousands killed or injured: as European governments focus on crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, the brutal conflict has led to a humanitarian catastrophe. Now, while various actors such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United States variously mediate in Sudan, Europe remains on the sideline.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Will Brown, senior policy fellow at ECFR’s Africa programme; Jonas Horner, ECFR visiting fellow; and Raga Makawi, associate at the Alameda Institute, to discuss the humanitarian and diplomatic dimensions of the crisis in Sudan, and why and how European countries should intervene. Why should Europeans pay more attention to Sudan? What are the implications of this conflict in the region, and for Europe? How does it involve external actors, and what are they pushing for? How likely is a settlement that also addresses the humanitarian situation? And what is the prospect of future peace and order in Sudan?

This episode was recorded on 10 October 2024

Bookshelf:

Sudan’s humanitarian catastrophe demands a surge in European support for its civil society by Jonas Horner

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One year on from the murderous attacks of 7 October 2023, the Middle East is in the middle of an escalating regional war. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s MENA programme; Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s MENA programme and Iran expert; and Hugh Lovatt, senior policy fellow in ECFR’s MENA programme and an expert on Israel-Palestine, to discuss the present and future of the Middle East.

How will Israel respond to Iran’s recent attacks? Will it seek to press home its advantage and attack its nuclear programme? How might Iran try to recreate its deterrence after the decapitation of Hizbullah? How is it thinking about the role of proxies, public opinion, and nuclear weapons? What are the longer-term prospects for the region and for Israel and Palestine? And what is the role of the United States in the region?

This podcast was recorded on 8 October 2024. 

Bookshelf: 

River of Smoke: A Novel (The Ibis Trilogy, 2) by Amitav Ghosh  

The Son of Prophecy: The Rise of Henry Tudor by Nathen Amin  

Israel’s ‘Mission Accomplished’ Moment in the Middle East by Stephen M. Walt  

The Journey by Francesca Sanna 

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With only a month to go before the US election, much ink has been spilled writing about how US foreign policy might change if Trump returned to the White House. This is made easier because there is a wealth of information out there for analysts to go on. Harris, on the other hand, is a bit of a foreign policy enigma. With little to no foreign policy experience before becoming vice-president, she has stuck closely to the administration’s line on every major foreign policy issue of the Biden presidency thus far, at least publicly, which has made it especially difficult to guess what a “Harris doctrine” might look like.

In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, head of ECFR’s Paris office and a fellow in the US programme, and Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s research director and head of the US programme. Together, they discuss what a President Harris’s foreign policy might look like. What’s the one thing European policymakers should take away from this episode? On what issues would Harris likely pursue continuity with the current administration? And where might she want to take a different approach?

The podcast was recorded on 3 October, 2024.

Bookshelf:

My Brilliant Friend by Elena Ferrante

Intermezzo by Sally Rooney

Good as gold by Joseph Heller

Swamp Chronicles with Jeremy Shapiro and Asli Aydintasbas 

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Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni is playing a central role in the country’s recent significant political developments. Her right-wing coalition government, which is inter alia focused on tightening immigration policies and promoting an Italian nationalist agenda, continues to draw national and international attention – as well as derision. But, despite her Eurosceptic stance, Meloni maintains a pragmatic approach in dealing with the European Union.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Lykke Friis, director of Think Tank Europa; Sylvie Kauffmann, editorial director at Le Monde; and Arturo Varvelli, head of ECFR’s Rome office and senior policy fellow, to discuss Meloni’s ideas to prevent the ‘decline’ of the West. How does she view the trajectory of Western civilisation, and Europe’s future global role? What does Meloni’s rise mean for European politics? Does Meloni truly envisage her political project fitting into prevailing Western ideologies? And how do France and Denmark view the current state of Italy?

This episode was recorded on 25 September 2024

Bookshelf:

Vaterländer by Sabin Tambrea

The Wizard of the Kremlin by Giuliano da Empoli

Chernobyl: The History of a Nuclear Catastrophe by Serhii Plokhy

Meloni's speech at the Atlantic Council’s Global Citizen Awards ceremony in New York

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After a period of stalemate between Russia and Ukraine, direct military action has recommenced. Heightened tensions have led to discussions on Europe’s readiness for a ‘war economy’ and the United States is also reportedly considering lifting its ban on Ukraine’s use of American weapons to strike Russian territory; the Kremlin has responded with its usual bluster. But amid the rhetoric and battlefield manoeuvring, Ukraine’s leadership has also begun a tentative discussion regarding a diplomatic end to the war.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobsova, ECFR visiting fellow and recently foreign policy advisor to Slovakian president Zuzana Caputová, and Nicu Popescu, former foreign minister of Moldova and distinguished policy fellow at ECFR, to discuss the domestic state of Ukraine, development of Europe’s war economy, and if and how the conflict could end. Have Ukraine or Russia’s aims – or red lines – changed? What role could Europe play in concluding the war? But how might the EU also prepare for potential further Russian aggression?

This episode was recorded on 16 September 2024

Bookshelf:

Faustian Bargain: The Soviet-German Partnership and the Origins of the Second World War, by Ian Ona Johnson

War and Punishment: The Story of Russian Oppression and Ukrainian Resistance, by Mikhail Zygar

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It has been a momentous few weeks in German and French politics. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won its first state election – and achieved the German far-right’s best result since the second world war – in Thuringia with 33% of the vote; in Saxony, it came a close second to the Christian Democratic Union. In France, after weeks of uncertainty caused by a divided National Assembly, President Emmanuel Macron appointed Michel Barnier as the country’s prime minister.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, senior policy fellow and head of the ECFR Paris office, and Jana Puglierin, senior policy fellow and head of the ECFR Berlin office. Together, they discuss the current state of German and French politics, and the implications for the European Union and European politics overall. What do these election results mean for Germany, and the EU? How long will the ‘firewall’ against the AfD hold? And does France finally have a government again? 

This episode was recorded on 9 September 2024

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