How exactly does low fertility affect economic growth, are UN population predictions accurate, what’s driving the decline in fertility, and what can be done? To answer these questions, I’m joined by the brilliant macro-economist, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde Read his recent paper: The Wealth of Working Nations https://www.nber.org/papers/w31914

Professor Daron Acemoglu is famous for his careful empirical research, demonstrating the economic importance of institutions. But actually, he’s done a 180 to embrace culture! In this podcast we discuss his new theory of culture, what drives liberty and prosperity, the limits of democracy, and the importance of geography!

Dr Oliver Kim has completed his PhD at Berkeley, recently appointed at Open Philanthropy. He does awesome research, carefully examining the drivers of structural transformation. We discussed: Why do you think East Asia is the only world region to have converged with the West? How have big data and computational tools changed our understanding of structural transformation? Oliver's website: https://oliverwkim.com/ His substack: https://www.global-developments.org/

“Vikings is no. 1 from all the Saudi men 😂”. Leila chuckled as we browsed top hits on Netflix. For only 30 Riyals (8 USD) a month, Saudis can tune into stories about uncovered pagans. A global feast of delights are now on offer - from Western films to women’s football. Rapid cultural change is afoot in Saudi Arabia, a unique experiment in top-down secularisation. But how can we as social scientists study such rapid cultural evolution in real-time, especially in an autocracy? In this podcast, I’ll highlight some exciting new methodologies. Buckle up.

Culture is not a static inheritance, but a dynamic arena of ongoing struggle. From the mosques of Jakarta to the classrooms of Louisiana, from TikTok feeds to university lecture halls, ideological warfare rages. This podcast explores the complex interplay of several crucial factors shaping our cultural landscape: Contestation: Culture is a battlefield where competing ideologies clash, merge, and evolve. Prestigious actors and institutions are especially influential, as others look to them as successful. No norm is set in stone; instead, we see a perpetual push and pull between progressive and conservative forces, each vying to define societal values. Economic growth, technological advances and political freedoms do not entail cultural liberalisation. These are merely vehicles - to be used by progressives and conservatives alike. Religious and cultural traditions: Deep-seated beliefs shape the receptiveness to change, and the scope of public debate. Drawing on my qualitative research across nine world regions and evidence from multiple disciplines, this podcast examines ideological battles in diverse settings, from the United States to the Middle East, Southeast Asia to Latin America.

Imagine: Elon Musk's tweet causes a cryptocurrency frenzy. Kim Kardashian’s outfit becomes an overnight fashion sensation. Daron Acemoglu and colleagues’ paper on settler mortality reshapes economic thinking. The Pope’s words influence millions globally. What links these diverse events? They’re all powerful manifestations of prestige bias. Psychologically, we seek guidance from those who’ve achieved success, looking to emulate their paths to prosperity and social approval. This creates a dynamic where the accomplished influence others, often reinforcing their own status in the process. From NBER’s Summer Institute to the glitz of Hollywood, prestige bias permeates every sphere of human endeavour. However, its impact is perhaps most profound and far-reaching in the realm of religion. Join me on a journey to the heart of the Muslim world, where we’ll explore the influence of Cairo’s Al-Azhar - a beacon of Islamic scholarship whose teachings reverberate globally. Through this lens, we’ll uncover how prestige bias shapes not just individual choices, but entire cultural paradigms.

Senior management remains heavily male, and honestly I’m not entirely sure why. Economist Ingrid Haegele finds that junior men are more likely to apply for promotions, primarily due to a greater desire for team leadership. Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2404.07750.pdf Haegele: https://www.ingridhaegele.com/

During the World War I, the US federal government was short on civil servants and actively recruited women. Abhay Aneja, Silvia Farina, and Guo Xu find that men with multiple female colleagues were subsequently more likely to marry working women and father careerist daughters! Crucially, the effect is larger when men have many female colleagues and it becomes perfectly conventional. Paper: https://www.nber.org/papers/w32639

How can we improve government capacity and public services? In “Mission-Driven Bureaucrats”, Dan Honig argues that civil servants are often deeply committed, yet hobbled by strict rule books. Trapped by top-down strictures, civil servants may even become disillusioned. Unable to help, they quit. Government ministries can be so much more effective if motivated civil servants actually have the autonomy to be creative, independent, and fix local problems. How do we know this? 4 million individual observations, along with in-depth case research in Detroit, Senegal, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Liberia. We discuss: What do most efforts to improve public management get wrong? How does management style affect recruitment and effectiveness? How can managers build cultures where workers feel empowered? Get the book: https://danhonig.info/missiondrivenbureaucrats

Imagine a world where love knows no boundaries, where two people can marry regardless of their gender. Now open your eyes. In some parts of the globe, this is reality. In others, it's a distant dream. Twenty years ago, a mere 26% of Americans supported same-sex marriage. Today, that figure has skyrocketed to 69%. That is extremely rapid cultural change in favour of love and liberalism. But hold your applause, because here’s the plot twist: most of the world is not joining the parade. When asked about their least desired neighbours, most Africans and Asians still say “homosexuals”. The roots of this divergence go back two thousand years. Truth be told, it’s all about love. In 1950, most of the world was homophobic, but with crucial cross-cultural variation. Some parts of the world celebrated marital love and secular liberalism. Shaking off the shackles of sexual puritanism, activists could persuade wider publics to welcome diversity, for ‘love is love’. Patrilineal societies have been far less receptive, as they prioritised intergenerational loyalty. Religious revival is another major impediment, exemplified by Brazilian Evangelicals, fanning the flames of homophobia. So, for those curious, here’s a little preview of my second book, “The Great GAY Divergence”

Aaron Rock-Singer is a fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Middle East Initiative. He has published two fantastic books, “Practicing Islam: Egypt’s Islamic Revival” and “In the Shade of the Sunna: Salafi Piety in the Twentieth-Century Middle East”. Aaron is truly brilliant, connecting both the macro and the micro. By examining structural shifts in education and urbanisation as well as Islamic print media, he shows how modernisation triggered counter-mobilisation. We discuss: How did colonialism change religiosity and religious practices in Egypt? Why were post-independence leaders relatively secular? What was the Islamic revival? What was new? Did the 1970s economic downturn raise support Islamists? Why was there a global religious revival in the 1970s? Why was female behaviour so central to religious revival? Would Egypt’s Islamic revival have occurred in the absence of Saudi funding and migration?