What if the future of global power dynamics and, the question of winners and losers in the US-China competition could hinge on one body of water – the Indian Ocean? As geopolitical tensions rise and great powers vie for influence in the Indo-Pacific, the Indian Ocean is emerging as an increasingly critical theater of international relations.

What is clear is that U.S.-China tensions are heightening the strategic importance of maritime security. How are these dynamics changing the geopolitical environment of the Indian Ocean? How are island nations responding to the increased interest in their regional waters, and how will they shape great power competition more broadly? Sophia Besch and nonresident scholar Darshana Baruah discuss these questions and more in this week's episode.

Notes

1. C. Raja Mohan, Samudra Manthan: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012).
2. Darshana Baruah, The Contest for the Indian Ocean: And the Making of a New World Order (Yale University Press, 2024).

Why is meaningful change in U.S. foreign policy is so difficult to achieve? This question is especially relevant with the U.S. presidential election just weeks away now, and analysts and policy makers all over the world are discussing how a Trump or Harris presidency might shift American foreign policy in the years to come.

But how likely is it that we will see meaningful change at all? Historically, it has been incredibly challenging for presidential administrations to break away from entrenched foreign policy paths —even when the need for change seems obvious. Presidencies often start with a declaration of pivots and major strategic reorientation, these then get ground down by powerful bureaucracy, political pressures and human tendency to preserve the status quo. When change does happen, leaders often pay a high political price for it. Take, for instance, the example of the withdrawal from Afghanistan. In the end, it took two decades and much internal pushback before President Biden was able to officially make this happen - even though the decision had long had significant public support. 

In this week's episode, Sophia Besch sits down with Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim to discuss their research that dissects how strategic foreign policy change does happen despite pressures to maintain the status quo—and  what it would take for the next American president to enact such a change.

Notes:

1. Christopher S. Chivvis et al., Strategic Change in U.S. Foreign Policy, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 24, 2024.
2. Stephen Wertheim, "How Kamala Harris Should Put America First—for Real," New York Times, October 21, 2024.
3. Christopher S. Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim, "America's Foreign Policy Inertia: How the Next President Can Make Change in a System Built to Resist It," Foreign Affairs, October 14, 2024.
4. Rebecca Friedman Lissner, "Wars of Revelation: The Transformative Effects of Military Intervention on Grand Strategy," Oxford University Press, 2021.

Following Sunday's controversial presidential election, Kais Saied has secured his second term in office. While this result was widely anticipated, it raises deeper questions about the trajectory of Tunisia's democracy. Tunisia was once seen as the shining success of the Arab Spring – a beacon of democratic hope. But now, like several of its neighbors, it finds itself grappling with rising authoritarianism, weakened institutions, and disillusioned voters.

Today, we’re not just looking at Tunisia’s election results, but also exploring what these trends tell us about the state of democracy in the wider region. How did Tunisia arrive at this point in its democratic trajectory? What does this mean for the future of political reform, governance, and stability in North Africa and beyond? 

In this episode, Sophia Besch discusses these questions and more with Sarah Yerkes, a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Middle East Program and expert on Tunisia’s political and economic reforms.

Notes: 

1. Sarah Yerkes, "How Tunisia's President Has Used the Law to Secure His Election Victory," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 24, 2024.

In the fight against climate change, a controversial new idea is gaining traction: solar geoengineering. Solar geoengineering, or solar radiation modification, is an emerging technology that aims to reflect sunlight back into space to cool planet Earth. In a world that is struggling to bring about the behavioral and political changes needed to reduce climate change, an innovative tech approach might seem like an alluring silver bullet. 

But the reality is not so simple. In this episode, Sophia sits down with Cynthia Scharf, a senior fellow at the International Center for Future Generations and former senior strategy director for the Carnegie Climate Governance Initiative. They discuss solar geoengineering's risks and promises, as well as its implications for geopolitics and conflict.

The Middle East and North Africa region is witnessing a fierce competition among the world’s current “great powers”—the U.S., Russia, and China. These three countries are all seeking to extend their influence in this region. But the ways they're engaging—with varying degrees of success—are as complex as the region itself.

This week on the show, Sophia digs into the data with Amr Hamzawy, a senior fellow and the director of the Carnegie Middle East Program. Trade and foreign direct investment, arms exports and military deployments –  they all tell a story of shifting alliances, economic competition, and strategic maneuvering, and they raise important questions about how the US, China and Russia are shaping the future of the region.

Is American dominance in the region fading? What do Chinese and Russian spheres of influence look like? And how are the countries of the Middle East and North Africa navigating the complex web of great power competition?

Just a few weeks ago, French President Emmanuel Macron took a risky political gamble. After the European Parliament elections revealed gains for the far-right party National Rally, Macron called a snap nationwide election three years earlier than required. Macron hoped to use this election to push back on the right-wing gains and restore power to the center. But others worried that Macron had become overconfident–perhaps even arrogant. They feared that instead of clarifying France’s support for the center, Macron’s snap election could end up handing over a parliamentary majority to the National Rally and deepen the right-wing capture of French politics. 

This week on the show, Sophia explores the results of this election with Tara Varma, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution. While indeed in the first round of voting, the far right dominated, this second round saw the a new electoral coalition of left wing parties come in first, Macron’s party second, and the far  right third. No party has a majority and so the question is: what comes next? What do the election outcomes mean for Macron, for the future of French politics, and for European leadership and NATO?

1. Isabel Wilkerson, The Warmth of Other Suns: The Epic Story of America's Great Migration (New York: Vintage Books, 2011).

NATO’s 75th anniversary summit is coming up in Washington DC next month. With the war in Ukraine ongoing, Kyiv has sought to join NATO for a while now. But the alliance has been reluctant to grant official membership, which led to a tense summit last year. So, this time around, the US government and its Allies have been working hard to identify summit deliverables beyond Ukraine’s NATO membership. Still, it’s hard to picture a summit where Ukraine’s future will not be the number one agenda item. 

This week on the show,  Senior Fellow Eric Ciaramella joins Sophia to discuss the upcoming 75th anniversary NATO summit—and what it might mean for Ukraine. They unpack how NATO allies are thinking about their support to Ukraine two years into the war, what the summit may be able to deliver for Ukraine short of official NATO membership, and what we should look out for in the months following the meeting.

1. Eric Ciaramella, "Envisioning a Long-Term Security Arrangement for Ukraine," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 8, 2023. 
2. Nicole Gonik and Eric Ciaramella, "War and Peace: Ukraine's Impossible Choices," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 11, 2024. 
3. Mary E. Sarrotte, Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2021).

Just a few days ago, over 300 million voters across 27 countries were called to vote in the European Parliament elections. These elections take place every five years, and sometimes people have a tendency to dismiss them as symbolic elections that don’t matter much in practice. But the lead-up to the vote this year has been particularly intense: as the war in Ukraine rages on, countries all across the continent face rising nationalist and nativist sentiment, and far-right parties expect to make gains in the Parliament, the stakes of the 2024 EU elections loom high.

This week on the show, Director of Carnegie Europe Rosa Balfour joins Sophia to unpack the European Parliament elections – how exactly do they work, what do the outcomes mean for the future of European policy, and why should the US care?

1. Charting the Radical Right's Influence on EU Foreign Policy, ed. Rosa Balfour and Stefan Lehne, April 18, 2024.
2. Rachel Kleinfeld, "Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 5, 2023.

On May 14, 2024, the Biden administration announced $18 billion dollars worth of tariffs on a range of Chinese imports from “strategic sectors," which include electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, critical minerals, steel and aluminum, semiconductors, solar cells, and medical products. This is the latest episode in Washington’s controversial trade war with Beijing, launched by Donald Trump in 2018 and continued under this administration.

Jon Bateman, a senior fellow in Carnegie's Technology and International Affairs Program, joins Sophia to unpack President Biden’s new tariffs — what are they, and what do they tell us about Washington’s evolving relationship with Beijing? What does this latest escalation in the trade war between China and America mean for both countries’ allies? And what are the implications of this for the future of  U.S. economic and climate policy?

As China ramps up its military capabilities and tensions persist in the Taiwan Strait, there are growing concerns about the risk of conflict that could involve the United States. But it’s not just Taiwan that could spark conflict. China’s increasingly assertive presence is felt everywhere in the South China Sea from the Philippines to Malaysia. 

How will these conflicts develop? What do we know about China’s maritime strategy, and what lessons can we draw from Beijing’s behavior in the South China Sea for the country’s global ambitions? And how are countries in the region managing the rivalry between China and the U.S.? 

 Isaac Kardon, a senior fellow for China studies in Carnegie's Asia Program, joins Sophia to unpack the rising tensions in the South China Sea and the geopolitics of China’s maritime disputes.

1. Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Isaac Kardon. (2024, March 15). "Playing Both Sides of the U.S.-Chinese Rivalry." Foreign Affairs 

After months of gridlock, Congress passed and President Joe Biden signed the long-awaited foreign aid package into law, which includes $60.8 billion for Ukraine. With the war still ongoing, this comes at a critical point for the Ukrainians in fighting Russian forces. But after months of delay, how much has been lost in the waiting? What will be the effects on the battlefield? And how are Ukraine, Russia, and Ukraine's allies preparing for what is ahead? 

Dara Massicot, a senior fellow in Carnegie's Russia and Eurasia Program, joins Sophia on the show to unpack the war effort in Ukraine.