The world is experiencing significant shifts, and the recent US election stands as one of the most influential. This could introduce a new level of unpredictability to global politics, economic relations and social dynamics worldwide.

Donald Trump’s decisive victory has surprised many, and his re-election raises several important questions about how it will impact on global dynamics. A continued focus on "America First" could strain international alliances and fragment global cooperation, if US interests overshadow multilateral agreements.

As Trump prepares to take office for the second time, he may also adopt a more assertive approach to foreign policy, likely impacting NATO relations and potentially intensifying tensions with China, Iran and Russia. His previous scepticism about the climate crisis may see reduced federal action which will hinder global climate agreements and slow carbon reduction efforts.

In this episode guests analyse what to expect from Trump's return to the White House, both for the US and the world, including potential shifts across foreign, security, development, climate and migration policies.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Karin Von Hippel, Director-General, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
• Ramsey Day, ODI Global Washington Board member and former USAID Assistant Administrator for Africa 
• Jeremy Konyndyk, President, Refugees International

Related resources

• Managing anti-immigration populism (Insight, ODI Global)
  
  
• Public narratives and attitudes towards refugees and other migrants: US country profile (Briefing paper, ODI Global)
  
  
• Four cost-effective ways the U.S. can pay its “fair share” of climate finance (Insight, ODI Global)
  
  
• Institutional misogyny is a threat to reproductive justice everywhere (Insight, ODI Global)
  
  
• Global approaches to refugee response: what difference can they make? (Insight, ODI Global)
  
  
• American journeys (Feature, ODI Global)

In the wake of our decision at ODI to suspend all activity on X (formerly Twitter), this episode examines the polarisation and hate so prevalent in today’s social media landscape and what is driving it.

Since Elon Musk took ownership of X two years ago there has been a rise of hate speech, mis- and disinformation on the platform. The UK riots, which we dissected in a recent episode, are a case in point. This worrying trend – alongside the commercialisation of its validation functions – led many politicians and organisations to stop using X.

But are we just putting plasters on a much deeper issue? To what extent has this divide in society already existed?

This episode examines these questions, and asks what action is needed to build safer, fairer digital societies. Guests explore the potential of social media to tackle subconscious biases, and take a stand against misinformation and online hate.

We hear about the role policy-makers should play in tackling fake news and misinformation as well as social media platforms themselves, and what role AI could play in influencing these dynamics.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI
• Nanjala Nyabola, Kenyan author, political analyst and and activist
• Sandra Pepera, Chief Strategy and Governance Officer, ODI

Related resources

• ODI suspends activity on X (Statement, ODI)
  
  
• Riots, race and misinformation – has alarmist rhetoric on migration gone too far? (Think Change podcast, ODI)
  
  
• How to tackle mis/disinformation with a human centred approach (Insight, ODI)
  
  
• 10 things to know about misinformation and disinformation (Graphics/Briefing note, ODI)
  
  
• Has AI ushered in an existential crisis of trust in democracy? (Insight, ODI)
  
  
• Influencers and incumbency: digital disinformation and discontent in Nigeria's Presidential elections (Insight, ODI)
  
  
• Misinformation in Brazilian elections: can the judiciary stem the tide of political misinformation? (Insight, ODI)
  
  
• A war on many fronts: disinformation around the Russia-Ukraine war (Insight, ODI)
  
  
• How can AI become a force for social good? (Think Change podcast, ODI)
  
  
• Hidden in plain sight: how social media infrastructure shapes gender norms (Report, ODI/ALIGN)

Income inequality is high or worsening within many countries globally. This not only raises serious moral concerns. It also contributes to political instability and undermines inclusive economic growth.

Governments can use taxation to reduce inequality. They do this by taxing people fairly and spending a share of the revenue on social safety nets for the poor, sick, unemployed or those most impacted by negative shocks, such as Covid-19 the climate emergency, and by investing in human capital through education and health. 

But many lower income countries cannot afford comprehensive social safety nets. Their options are limited because of rising costs of borrowing and narrow tax bases. This means not enough revenue is collected and not everyone pays their fair share.

In this episode, guests examine how lower income countries can build more effective tax and transfer systems that can support fairer, more resilient and sustainable societies. 

The episode unpacks what is really meant by tax systems and social spending, why equitable taxation is critical, how governments can go about improving tax and social protection systems in practice. 

Guests 

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI
• Hazel Granger ( Senior Research Fellow, ODI)
• Professor Andrés Velasco (Dean of the School of Public Policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science, and former Minister of Finance, Chile) 
• Alex Cobham (Chief Executive, Tax Justice Network)
  
  

Related resources

• TaxDev - The centre for tax analysis in developing countries
  
  
• Income inequality, gender and the role of tax and transfers (Event video and podcast, ODI)
  
  
• Fiscal policy and gender income inequality: the role of taxes and social spending (Report, ODI)
  
  
• The problem with tax potential estimates – key considerations to develop sustainable tax systems (Insight, ODI)
  
  
• Inflation, incomes and inequality – how can lower-income countries use fiscal policy to the greatest effect? (Insight, ODI)

As conflicts continue to spiral in many parts of the world, from those who dominate the headlines daily to the ones that we barely hear about, global instability is increasing in the context of rising food insecurity, forced displacement, and climate change. We need to step up our collective commitment to building peaceful societies.  

In September 2024, the United Nations hosted the Summit of the Future, bringing together world leaders to create a new international consensus on how to address global challenges and create a better future, with the aim to settle conflicts peacefully and expand youth participation in global decision-making, amongst others. 

This episode discusses how we can prevent conflict and rebuild solidarity and accountability in a fragmented world. What are the challenges and how can we mitigate against them?  How can we involve marginalised groups to build an inclusive global architecture that serves those on the ground working on peacebuilding initiatives? 

Disclaimer: This episode was recorded in advance of the Summit. 

Guests 

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI 
• Elizabeth Spehar, Elizabeth Mary Spear, Assistant Secretary-General for Peacebuilding Support, UN Department of Political Affairs 
• Joyce Mendez, United Nations Secretary General's Youth Advisory Group 
• Jago Salmon, Senior Research Associate, Politics and Governance 

Resources:

https://www.un.org/peacebuilding/content/2025-review-un-peacebuilding-architecture (Peacebuilding Architecture Review, UN) 

https://www.un.org/en/summit-of-the-future (Summit of the Future, UN) 

https://odi.org/en/insights/a-pact-for-the-future-needs-a-stronger-awareness-of-un-financing-in-the-present/ (Blog, ODI) 

https://odi.org/en/events/women-at-the-forefront-the-transformative-impact-of-the-unscr-1325-on-women-peace-and-security/ (Event, ODI) 

https://odi.org/en/publications/working-with-humanitarians-is-a-nightmare-dynamics-surrounding-locally-led-peacebuilding-in-somalia/ (Report, ODI) 

https://odi.org/en/insights/event-recap-community-engagement-armed-actors/ (Event, ODI) 

https://odi.org/en/publications/meeting-report-security-and-climate-change-implications-for-hdp-programmes-in-somalia/ (Meeting Report, ODI) 

https://odi.org/en/publications/community-engagement-protection-and-peacebuilding-reviewing-evidence-and-practice/ (Journal article, ODI) 

https://odi.org/en/insights/physician-heal-thyself-a-new-agenda-for-peace-must-look-inwards-first-to-address-institutional-obstacles-to-building-and-preventing-peace/ (Expert Comment, ODI) 

The fatal stabbing of three young girls in Southport by 17-year-old Axel Rudakubana back in July ignited riots which have swept across the UK and made global headlines.

What followed from the tragedy was a racist, Islamophobic and anti-migrant campaign fuelled by misinformation and disinformation, which spilled into the streets with targeted attacks on mosques and ethnic minorities.

This senseless violence again cast a spotlight on systemic issues of racism and inequality, and highlighted the potentially deadly consequences of our collective failure to tackle false information online, as well as the demonisation of migrants.

This episode dissects these problems, asking what the recent riots reveal about the rise of the far right in the UK and elsewhere, and how to counter alarmist rhetoric on migration. Our guests discuss how we can move forward towards a place of greater solidarity, understanding and trust.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI
• Afua Hirsch, Journalist
• Fizza Qureshi, CEO, Migrants’ Rights Network
• Marvin Rees, Visiting Senior Fellow, ODI and former Mayor of Bristol
• Kathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou, Director, Politics and Governance programme, ODI
  
  

Related resources

• Migration and Displacement Hub (ODI)
  
  
• Migration decision-making: beyond political rhetoric and guesswork (Event, ODI)
  
  
• As UK public attitudes toward migration are increasingly positive, it’s time for more balanced and evidence-based narratives (Blog, ODI)
  
  
• Public narratives and attitudes towards refugees and other migrants: UK country profile (Briefing, ODI)
  
  
• Public and political narratives and attitudes towards refugees and other migrants: implications for action (Project, ODI)
  
  
• Hearts and minds: How Europeans think and feel about immigration (Data visualisation, ODI)
  
  
• Why many policies to lower migration actually increase it (Blog, The Conversation)
  
  
• Humanitarian hypocrisy, double standards and the law in Gaza (Blog, ODI)
  
  
• Navigating narratives in Ukraine: humanitarian response amid solidarity and resistance (Blog, ODI)
  
  
• How to tackle mis/disinformation with a human centred approach (Blog, ODI)
  
  
• 10 things to know about misinformation and disinformation (Briefing, ODI)

This episode examines the challenges leaders at the forefront of tackling today’s multiple crises are facing, and the leadership skills and approaches desperately needed to navigate these uncertain times.

We are teaming up with Tandem for this episode – ODI's Global Executive Leadership Programme. Tandem is building a community of humanitarian and development leaders around the world, equipping them with the skills and connections to address today’s most pressing global challenges and build a brighter future for all.

Fresh from graduating from the Tandem programme, two inspirational leaders join our host Sara Pantuliano to reflect on the unique challenges facing humanitarian leaders today – at a time when political instability, conflicts, geopolitical tensions and climate crisis are all creating increasingly complex operating environments.

We hear about what their experiences with Tandem over the past nine months have taught them, and how these are reshaping their own approach to leading in crisis settings.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI
• Sasha Kapadia, Director of Global Advisory, ODI
• Gaurav Ray, Head of the Bangladesh Office, German Red Cross
• Lisa Jean, Iraq Country Director, Mines Advisory Group 
  
  

Related resources

• Tandem Leadership LinkedIn page
  
  
• Tandem website
  
  
• Leading through crisis: what works and what doesn’t (event video/podcast)
  
  
• Better leadership, better world: introducing Tandem (ODI blog)
  
  
• Humanitarian leadership: learning from the past and directions for the future (Tandem/ODI paper)
  
  
• Refugee leadership – how do we move from talk to action? (Think Change podcast)

To mark World Humanitarian Day, this episode examines how the rules of war have changed in our increasingly polarised world and asks how we can better protect the delivery of life-saving humanitarian assistance.

World Humanitarian Day recognises and raises awareness of the courageous work of humanitarians around the world. It was established by the UN to commemorate the anniversary of a bomb attack on UN headquarters in Baghdad on 19 August 2003, which killed 22 humanitarian workers including the UN’s chief humanitarian in Iraq Sergio Vieira de Mello.

Last year was the deadliest on record for humanitarian workers, and 2024 could be even worse. The past few months have seen egregious attacks against aid workers in Gaza and in lesser reported conflicts, including in Sudan and South Sudan. International Humanitarian Law – designed to protect aid workers and civilians – has been repeatedly flouted.

This episode puts these crises under the spotlight. We reflect on what these worrying trends reveal about the humanitarian aid system and the evolution of armed conflict today, as well as state of our global rules-based order.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI
• Sorcha O’Callaghan, Director of the Humanitarian Policy Group, ODI
• Abby Stoddard, Partner, Humanitarian Outcomes
• Ola Mohammed, Gaza Programme Manager, Muslim Aid
  
  

Related resources

• Humanitarians in the line of fire: when acting for humanity proves deadly
  
  
• The meeting of humanitarian and civic space in Sudan: lessons for localisation
  
  
• Event recap: Sounding the alarm on Sudan’s hunger crisis
  
  
• Whatever happens now, South–South solidarity with Gaza has already exposed the West
  
  
• Gaza: a litmus test for the humanitarian sector’s commitment to decolonisation?
  
  
• Humanitarian hypocrisy, double standards and the law in Gaza

We are taking a break from our regular schedule this month to look back on some of the most popular episodes released since Think Change first aired back in March 2022.

This episode revisits a conversation we released last year, and the halfway point of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals deadline to end poverty and reduce inequalities.

We asked what poverty really means today, and if old notions of ending poverty simply by increasing individual income above an arbitrary line are even useful anymore.

This year we have looked closely at trends across a range of issues – both globally and by region – which has revealed just how much effort is needed if we want to meet these targets by 2030, with no one left behind.

With the so-called ‘polycrisis’ pushing more people into poverty, and the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform’s global poverty estimates at 712 million people living below the $2.15 per day poverty line, we asked our guests how we define and fight poverty today.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI
• Rathin Roy, Visiting Senior Fellow and former Managing Director, ODI
• Yamini Aiyar, President and Chief Executive, Centre for Policy Research
• Ricardo Fuentes-Nieva, Chief Economist for DataPop Alliance and former Director of the Equity and Social Policy Programme, ODI

This episode revisits some of our favourite conversations since the first Think Change podcast aired back in March 2022.

Since that time we have released over 50 episodes and been lucky to host some brilliant guests, who have shared their analysis and stories with us on a range of critical global issues – from MDB reform and the debt crisis in the Global South to the future of the Africa-China relationship and the latest concerning developments in Gaza.

The themes examined across all episodes are incredibly diverse, but they share a focus on reimagining a new vision for international cooperation in our polarised world – and a hope for building a more equal, peaceful and resilient planet.

Browse and listen back to all episodes of the Think Change podcast.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI
• Achim Steiner, UNDP Administrator
• Ian Bremmer, President and Founder, Eurasia Group
• Kathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou, Director, Politics and Governance programme
• Alexis Akwagyiram, Managing Editor, Semafor Africa
• Mavis Owusu-Gyamfi, Executive Vice President, African Center for Economic Transformation
• Arancha González, Dean of the Paris School of International Affairs
• Linda Calabrese, Research Fellow, ODI
• Yunnan Chen, Research Fellow, ODI
• Ronak Gopaldas, Director, Signal Risk
• Alex de Waal, Executive Director, World Peace Foundation
  
  

Related resources

• ODI in conversation with Achim Steiner
  
  
• Think Change episode 22: On borrowed time? The sovereign debt crisis in the Global South
  
  
• Think Change episode 25: Africa-China – where is the relationship heading?
  
  
• Think Change episode 37: what trends will shape 2024? Part 1
  
  
• Think Change episode 38: what trends will shape 2024? Part 2
  
  
• Think Change episode 31: what do borrowing countries think of MDB reform?
  
  
• Think Change episode 40: will the ICJ ruling change anything for Gaza?

The impacts of the climate crisis are widely known and have rightfully spurred international action, but the hastening collapse of global biodiversity receives far less attention.

Biodiversity is the life support system of our planet. We also depend on intact ecosystems for our food and water supplies, medical advances and disease prevention, climate stability, shelter and so much more.

In financial terms, a staggering 55% of global GDP depends on high-functioning biodiversity.

But nearly all species on earth are currently undergoing population declines, at speeds far quicker than scientists would expect.

Reversing the decline of nature depends on international cooperation. The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework represents a watershed moment for multilateral governance and action to conserve biodiversity and restore ecosystems. One of the goals of the framework is to "invest and collaborate", but currently, the biodiversity finance gap stands at $700 billion a year.

So what can be done to mobilise resources to ensure the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity? Experts examine ways forward and reflect on what must be done to reduce the harmful incentives that fuel biodiversity loss.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI
• Laetitia Pettinotti, Research Fellow, ODI
• Anaid Velasco, Environmental Lawyer and Mexico Director, Climate Finance Group for Latin America and the Caribbean
• Jeremy Eppel, Co-Founder, Eppel Sustainability and Senior Adviser, Nature Finance
  
  

Related resources

• A fair share of biodiversity finance: apportioning responsibility for the $20 billion target by 2025
  
  
• Biodiversity finance in Mexico
  
  
• Biodiversity finance in Nepal
  
  
• Biodiversity finance in Namibia
  
  
• What do we have to lose? Understanding and responding to climate-induced loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services

The recent European elections came at a pivotal time for Europe and its relations with the rest of the world. In the continent, the economic squeeze, along with the public’s concern around security and migration, drove the outcome of the elections. 

Across the world, the rise in protectionist and nationalist ideology threatens the future of the multilateral system. At risk is the global commitment to the climate crisis and human rights. 

 The Brussels policy debate is highly Eurocentric, but has extraterritorial impact, often with unanticipated consequences, across the globe. There is an urgent need for European Institutions and Member States to navigate these challenges effectively, to shape a European response.

 In this episode of the Think Change podcast we discuss the outcome of the European elections and how this will influence the EU’s foreign policy; the future of the multilateral system; and how dialogue and more equal partnerships with the rest of the world is essential to maintain Europe’s standing in the world. 

Guests:

• Sara Pantuliano, Chief Executive, ODI
  
  
• Ambassador João Vale de Almeida, previously Ambassador of the European Union to the United Nations; Ambassador of the European Union to the United States; and following Brexit, the first head of the future EU delegation to the UK.
  
  
• Professor Carlos Lopes, Honorary Professor at the Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance Faculty of Commerce at the University of Cape Town
  
  
• Suzanne Lynch, journalist and author of POLITICO’s Global Playbook

Related resources: 

• Where next for feminist foreign policy on funding feminist movements?
• Supporting Ukraine is costly – but Europe should be clear on the risks of letting Russia win
• Can the Displaced Talent for Europe pilot address green skills shortages in Europe?
• Can ‘the West’ be trusted? The future of European humanitarian aid
• Reflection on what’s next for EU policy on migration and development
• Whatever happens now, South–South solidarity with Gaza has already exposed the West