2024 was a year of significant transitions – characterised by rapid technological progress, shifting geopolitical landscapes, and ongoing crises and conflicts. In this final episode of the year, we reflect on its defining moments and look ahead to the key trends likely to shape 2025.

As the world becomes increasingly multipolar, the shift towards a more balanced global power structure brings both new perspectives and opportunities for collaboration. But this transition also presents challenges, with competing interests potentially impeding global cooperation. The redistribution of power may also deepen economic inequality and instability, and shift priorities in unexpected ways.

In the face of these changes, leading commentators give their take on what to expect from the year ahead.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Jeremy Bowen, International Editor of BBC News
• Bright Simons, Visiting Senior Fellow, ODI Global and President of mPedigree
• Linda Yueh, Fellow in Economics, University of Oxford
  
  

Related resources

• Rising China-US tensions fuel global economic slowdown ahead of Trump’s inauguration (Insight, ODI Global)
  
  
• Tens of thousands of people forcibly disappeared: will the international community step up for Syrians? (Insight, ODI Global)
  
  
• Holding states to account: do humanitarians undermine civil society? (Insight, ODI Global)
  
  
• Europe and the new world order: an updated approach to foreign engagement (Briefing paper, ODI Global)
  
  
• Will China’s influence in Africa’s AI revolution undermine its sovereignty? (Insight, ODI Global)
  
  
• The environmental risks of generative AI: why better global governance is urgently needed (Insight, ODI Global)

Since April last year, Sudan has been engulfed in a brutal civil war which has claimed over 150,000 lives, displaced over 11 million people and created acute food insecurity.

It is arguably the world's most devastating conflict. So why, over 600 days on, is Sudan still not getting the media and international attention it needs? And what can be done to spur more recognition and action for the people of Sudan, at a time when other crises like those in Gaza and Ukraine dominate the headlines?

Journalists from Al Jazeera and the BBC join us to give their take and share lesser reported stories that highlight both the suffering and unwavering strength of Sudanese people.

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Hiba Morgan, Reporter, Al Jazeera English
• James Copnall, Newsday Presenter, BBC World Service
• Mohanad Hashim, Journalist, BBC World Service

Related resources

• Event recap: Sudan’s humanitarian crisis slips further from sight (Event video, ODI Global)
  
  
• Event recap: Sounding the alarm on Sudan’s hunger crisis (Event video, ODI Global)
  
  
• Remembering Darfur – marking 20 years of conflict and its fallout (Disasters journal, ODI Global)
  
  
• The politics of hunger – can famine in Gaza and Sudan be stopped? (Think Change podcast, ODI Global)
  
  
• Three months into Sudan’s conflict: humanitarian leaders on the violence, the humanitarian response and the future (Event video, ODI Global)
  
  
• Sudan conflict – how did we get here and what next? (Think Change podcast, ODI Global)
  
  
• From El-Fasher to Khartoum: The fallout from 20 years of conflict in Darfur (Event video, ODI Global)

Have your say on Think Change

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Our new Donors in a Post-Aid World (DPAW) dialogue series provides an informal space for reimagining the functions of Northern bilateral donors in an evolving global landscape. Last month, our first dialogue focused on creating a new narrative for Northern ‘donorship,’ identifying opportunities for a refreshed approach to development cooperation.

This episode discusses key takeaways from the first dialogue. Guests examine the challenges Northern donor institutions face in a post-aid world, and how they might redefine their roles for the future.

Why does this matter? Today, Official Development Assistance (ODA) is expected to address a growing array of complex agendas: countering China, managing migration, tackling the climate crisis, and more.

As demands grow for concessional public finance, donors lack the scaffolding of a single 'story' that they once had. What’s more, as the lines between ‘developed’ and ‘developing’ countries blur, and the donor-recipient model of aid as charity is increasingly rejected, the traditional rationale for aid has reached its limits.

In this episode, guests discuss how to navigate these challenges and build momentum for reforms that could influence key global policy processes.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Nilima Gulrajani, Principal Research Fellow, ODI Global
• Heba Aly, former CEO of The New Humanitarian
• Fadhel Kaboub, Senior Advisor, Power Shift Africa
• Omar Bargawi, Deputy Director and Head of the Development Policy & Partnerships Department, FCDO

Engage with us

We want to hear from voices that do not get heard yet have deep insights and knowledge to reimagine donorship for the 21st century. Please do reach out to
Nilima Gulrajani if you have any ideas or would like to write for us.

The second dialogue will take place early in 2025, with four to take place over the next 18 months. Sign up to our Donors in a Post-Aid World newsletter to get updates about the dialogue series. 

Related resources

• Donors in a Post-Aid World (Project, ODI Global)
  
  
• Dialogue #1: Crafting a new rationale for northern donorship (Summary note, ODI Global)
  
  
• Should a Northern donor exist in the 21st century? Introducing a new dialogue series (Insight, ODI Global)
  
  
• Donors In A Post-Aid World – January 2024 update (Insight, ODI Global)
  
  
• Crafting development power: evolving European approaches in an age of polycrisis (Report, ODI Global)
  
  
• Boosting gender equality with finance and fiscal policy (Project, ODI Global)
  
  

Have your say on Think Change

We'd love to get your feedback on the show so we can continue to improve and grow it. Please take this 5 minute survey.

The world is experiencing significant shifts, and the recent US election stands as one of the most influential. This could introduce a new level of unpredictability to global politics, economic relations and social dynamics worldwide.

Donald Trump’s decisive victory has surprised many, and his re-election raises several important questions about how it will impact on global dynamics. A continued focus on "America First" could strain international alliances and fragment global cooperation, if US interests overshadow multilateral agreements.

As Trump prepares to take office for the second time, he may also adopt a more assertive approach to foreign policy, likely impacting NATO relations and potentially intensifying tensions with China, Iran and Russia. His previous scepticism about the climate crisis may see reduced federal action which will hinder global climate agreements and slow carbon reduction efforts.

In this episode guests analyse what to expect from Trump's return to the White House, both for the US and the world, including potential shifts across foreign, security, development, climate and migration policies.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Karin Von Hippel, Director-General, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
• Ramsey Day, ODI Global Washington Board member and former USAID Assistant Administrator for Africa 
• Jeremy Konyndyk, President, Refugees International

Related resources

• Managing anti-immigration populism (Insight, ODI Global)
  
  
• Public narratives and attitudes towards refugees and other migrants: US country profile (Briefing paper, ODI Global)
  
  
• Four cost-effective ways the U.S. can pay its “fair share” of climate finance (Insight, ODI Global)
  
  
• Institutional misogyny is a threat to reproductive justice everywhere (Insight, ODI Global)
  
  
• Global approaches to refugee response: what difference can they make? (Insight, ODI Global)
  
  
• American journeys (Feature, ODI Global)

In the wake of our decision at ODI to suspend all activity on X (formerly Twitter), this episode examines the polarisation and hate so prevalent in today’s social media landscape and what is driving it.

Since Elon Musk took ownership of X two years ago there has been a rise of hate speech, mis- and disinformation on the platform. The UK riots, which we dissected in a recent episode, are a case in point. This worrying trend – alongside the commercialisation of its validation functions – led many politicians and organisations to stop using X.

But are we just putting plasters on a much deeper issue? To what extent has this divide in society already existed?

This episode examines these questions, and asks what action is needed to build safer, fairer digital societies. Guests explore the potential of social media to tackle subconscious biases, and take a stand against misinformation and online hate.

We hear about the role policy-makers should play in tackling fake news and misinformation as well as social media platforms themselves, and what role AI could play in influencing these dynamics.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI
• Nanjala Nyabola, Kenyan author, political analyst and and activist
• Sandra Pepera, Chief Strategy and Governance Officer, ODI

Related resources

• ODI suspends activity on X (Statement, ODI)
  
  
• Riots, race and misinformation – has alarmist rhetoric on migration gone too far? (Think Change podcast, ODI)
  
  
• How to tackle mis/disinformation with a human centred approach (Insight, ODI)
  
  
• 10 things to know about misinformation and disinformation (Graphics/Briefing note, ODI)
  
  
• Has AI ushered in an existential crisis of trust in democracy? (Insight, ODI)
  
  
• Influencers and incumbency: digital disinformation and discontent in Nigeria's Presidential elections (Insight, ODI)
  
  
• Misinformation in Brazilian elections: can the judiciary stem the tide of political misinformation? (Insight, ODI)
  
  
• A war on many fronts: disinformation around the Russia-Ukraine war (Insight, ODI)
  
  
• How can AI become a force for social good? (Think Change podcast, ODI)
  
  
• Hidden in plain sight: how social media infrastructure shapes gender norms (Report, ODI/ALIGN)

Income inequality is high or worsening within many countries globally. This not only raises serious moral concerns. It also contributes to political instability and undermines inclusive economic growth.

Governments can use taxation to reduce inequality. They do this by taxing people fairly and spending a share of the revenue on social safety nets for the poor, sick, unemployed or those most impacted by negative shocks, such as Covid-19 the climate emergency, and by investing in human capital through education and health. 

But many lower income countries cannot afford comprehensive social safety nets. Their options are limited because of rising costs of borrowing and narrow tax bases. This means not enough revenue is collected and not everyone pays their fair share.

In this episode, guests examine how lower income countries can build more effective tax and transfer systems that can support fairer, more resilient and sustainable societies. 

The episode unpacks what is really meant by tax systems and social spending, why equitable taxation is critical, how governments can go about improving tax and social protection systems in practice. 

Guests 

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI
• Hazel Granger ( Senior Research Fellow, ODI)
• Professor Andrés Velasco (Dean of the School of Public Policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science, and former Minister of Finance, Chile) 
• Alex Cobham (Chief Executive, Tax Justice Network)
  
  

Related resources

• TaxDev - The centre for tax analysis in developing countries
  
  
• Income inequality, gender and the role of tax and transfers (Event video and podcast, ODI)
  
  
• Fiscal policy and gender income inequality: the role of taxes and social spending (Report, ODI)
  
  
• The problem with tax potential estimates – key considerations to develop sustainable tax systems (Insight, ODI)
  
  
• Inflation, incomes and inequality – how can lower-income countries use fiscal policy to the greatest effect? (Insight, ODI)

As conflicts continue to spiral in many parts of the world, from those who dominate the headlines daily to the ones that we barely hear about, global instability is increasing in the context of rising food insecurity, forced displacement, and climate change. We need to step up our collective commitment to building peaceful societies.  

In September 2024, the United Nations hosted the Summit of the Future, bringing together world leaders to create a new international consensus on how to address global challenges and create a better future, with the aim to settle conflicts peacefully and expand youth participation in global decision-making, amongst others. 

This episode discusses how we can prevent conflict and rebuild solidarity and accountability in a fragmented world. What are the challenges and how can we mitigate against them?  How can we involve marginalised groups to build an inclusive global architecture that serves those on the ground working on peacebuilding initiatives? 

Disclaimer: This episode was recorded in advance of the Summit. 

Guests 

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI 
• Elizabeth Spehar, Elizabeth Mary Spear, Assistant Secretary-General for Peacebuilding Support, UN Department of Political Affairs 
• Joyce Mendez, United Nations Secretary General's Youth Advisory Group 
• Jago Salmon, Senior Research Associate, Politics and Governance 

Resources:

https://www.un.org/peacebuilding/content/2025-review-un-peacebuilding-architecture (Peacebuilding Architecture Review, UN) 

https://www.un.org/en/summit-of-the-future (Summit of the Future, UN) 

https://odi.org/en/insights/a-pact-for-the-future-needs-a-stronger-awareness-of-un-financing-in-the-present/ (Blog, ODI) 

https://odi.org/en/events/women-at-the-forefront-the-transformative-impact-of-the-unscr-1325-on-women-peace-and-security/ (Event, ODI) 

https://odi.org/en/publications/working-with-humanitarians-is-a-nightmare-dynamics-surrounding-locally-led-peacebuilding-in-somalia/ (Report, ODI) 

https://odi.org/en/insights/event-recap-community-engagement-armed-actors/ (Event, ODI) 

https://odi.org/en/publications/meeting-report-security-and-climate-change-implications-for-hdp-programmes-in-somalia/ (Meeting Report, ODI) 

https://odi.org/en/publications/community-engagement-protection-and-peacebuilding-reviewing-evidence-and-practice/ (Journal article, ODI) 

https://odi.org/en/insights/physician-heal-thyself-a-new-agenda-for-peace-must-look-inwards-first-to-address-institutional-obstacles-to-building-and-preventing-peace/ (Expert Comment, ODI) 

The fatal stabbing of three young girls in Southport by 17-year-old Axel Rudakubana back in July ignited riots which have swept across the UK and made global headlines.

What followed from the tragedy was a racist, Islamophobic and anti-migrant campaign fuelled by misinformation and disinformation, which spilled into the streets with targeted attacks on mosques and ethnic minorities.

This senseless violence again cast a spotlight on systemic issues of racism and inequality, and highlighted the potentially deadly consequences of our collective failure to tackle false information online, as well as the demonisation of migrants.

This episode dissects these problems, asking what the recent riots reveal about the rise of the far right in the UK and elsewhere, and how to counter alarmist rhetoric on migration. Our guests discuss how we can move forward towards a place of greater solidarity, understanding and trust.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI
• Afua Hirsch, Journalist
• Fizza Qureshi, CEO, Migrants’ Rights Network
• Marvin Rees, Visiting Senior Fellow, ODI and former Mayor of Bristol
• Kathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou, Director, Politics and Governance programme, ODI
  
  

Related resources

• Migration and Displacement Hub (ODI)
  
  
• Migration decision-making: beyond political rhetoric and guesswork (Event, ODI)
  
  
• As UK public attitudes toward migration are increasingly positive, it’s time for more balanced and evidence-based narratives (Blog, ODI)
  
  
• Public narratives and attitudes towards refugees and other migrants: UK country profile (Briefing, ODI)
  
  
• Public and political narratives and attitudes towards refugees and other migrants: implications for action (Project, ODI)
  
  
• Hearts and minds: How Europeans think and feel about immigration (Data visualisation, ODI)
  
  
• Why many policies to lower migration actually increase it (Blog, The Conversation)
  
  
• Humanitarian hypocrisy, double standards and the law in Gaza (Blog, ODI)
  
  
• Navigating narratives in Ukraine: humanitarian response amid solidarity and resistance (Blog, ODI)
  
  
• How to tackle mis/disinformation with a human centred approach (Blog, ODI)
  
  
• 10 things to know about misinformation and disinformation (Briefing, ODI)

This episode examines the challenges leaders at the forefront of tackling today’s multiple crises are facing, and the leadership skills and approaches desperately needed to navigate these uncertain times.

We are teaming up with Tandem for this episode – ODI's Global Executive Leadership Programme. Tandem is building a community of humanitarian and development leaders around the world, equipping them with the skills and connections to address today’s most pressing global challenges and build a brighter future for all.

Fresh from graduating from the Tandem programme, two inspirational leaders join our host Sara Pantuliano to reflect on the unique challenges facing humanitarian leaders today – at a time when political instability, conflicts, geopolitical tensions and climate crisis are all creating increasingly complex operating environments.

We hear about what their experiences with Tandem over the past nine months have taught them, and how these are reshaping their own approach to leading in crisis settings.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI
• Sasha Kapadia, Director of Global Advisory, ODI
• Gaurav Ray, Head of the Bangladesh Office, German Red Cross
• Lisa Jean, Iraq Country Director, Mines Advisory Group 
  
  

Related resources

• Tandem Leadership LinkedIn page
  
  
• Tandem website
  
  
• Leading through crisis: what works and what doesn’t (event video/podcast)
  
  
• Better leadership, better world: introducing Tandem (ODI blog)
  
  
• Humanitarian leadership: learning from the past and directions for the future (Tandem/ODI paper)
  
  
• Refugee leadership – how do we move from talk to action? (Think Change podcast)

To mark World Humanitarian Day, this episode examines how the rules of war have changed in our increasingly polarised world and asks how we can better protect the delivery of life-saving humanitarian assistance.

World Humanitarian Day recognises and raises awareness of the courageous work of humanitarians around the world. It was established by the UN to commemorate the anniversary of a bomb attack on UN headquarters in Baghdad on 19 August 2003, which killed 22 humanitarian workers including the UN’s chief humanitarian in Iraq Sergio Vieira de Mello.

Last year was the deadliest on record for humanitarian workers, and 2024 could be even worse. The past few months have seen egregious attacks against aid workers in Gaza and in lesser reported conflicts, including in Sudan and South Sudan. International Humanitarian Law – designed to protect aid workers and civilians – has been repeatedly flouted.

This episode puts these crises under the spotlight. We reflect on what these worrying trends reveal about the humanitarian aid system and the evolution of armed conflict today, as well as state of our global rules-based order.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI
• Sorcha O’Callaghan, Director of the Humanitarian Policy Group, ODI
• Abby Stoddard, Partner, Humanitarian Outcomes
• Ola Mohammed, Gaza Programme Manager, Muslim Aid
  
  

Related resources

• Humanitarians in the line of fire: when acting for humanity proves deadly
  
  
• The meeting of humanitarian and civic space in Sudan: lessons for localisation
  
  
• Event recap: Sounding the alarm on Sudan’s hunger crisis
  
  
• Whatever happens now, South–South solidarity with Gaza has already exposed the West
  
  
• Gaza: a litmus test for the humanitarian sector’s commitment to decolonisation?
  
  
• Humanitarian hypocrisy, double standards and the law in Gaza

We are taking a break from our regular schedule this month to look back on some of the most popular episodes released since Think Change first aired back in March 2022.

This episode revisits a conversation we released last year, and the halfway point of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals deadline to end poverty and reduce inequalities.

We asked what poverty really means today, and if old notions of ending poverty simply by increasing individual income above an arbitrary line are even useful anymore.

This year we have looked closely at trends across a range of issues – both globally and by region – which has revealed just how much effort is needed if we want to meet these targets by 2030, with no one left behind.

With the so-called ‘polycrisis’ pushing more people into poverty, and the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform’s global poverty estimates at 712 million people living below the $2.15 per day poverty line, we asked our guests how we define and fight poverty today.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI
• Rathin Roy, Visiting Senior Fellow and former Managing Director, ODI
• Yamini Aiyar, President and Chief Executive, Centre for Policy Research
• Ricardo Fuentes-Nieva, Chief Economist for DataPop Alliance and former Director of the Equity and Social Policy Programme, ODI