A mood for change swept National & friends into power, so this season's final Caucus breaks down the numbers, unpacks the swing in Auckland, & looks at the coalition niceties. And the team opens their envelopes to check their predictions.

By Tim Watkin

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Analysis - Election 2023 is done but certainly not dusted. Our 54th parliament has been chosen and National will lead a coalition government into the new term. But what has the result told us about the state of New Zealand's politics and the strengths and weaknesses of our political parties?

The Caucus team meets for one last time for this election to make sense of last weekend's results. What really happened in Auckland as it swung blue? Why is Labour on the verge of losing some bastion seats? And just who is Dan Rosewarne anyway?

Julian Wilcox, Tim Watkin, Guyon Espiner and Lisa Owen talk through the big trends of the 2023 elections and what they teach us. They discuss the impact of Covid and where Labour went wrong. How much responsibility lies at Jacinda Ardern's feet and can Chris Hipkins survive this shellacking? They also look at National's rise and how it pales in comparison to Labour's fall. How will Christopher Luxon the Chief Executive handle the move to Christopher Luxon, Prime Minister and where does New Zealand First fit in?

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Wrapping up Election 2023, there's still plenty to play for ahead of election day. We review the highs and lows of Election 2023, unpack National's 'Winston Strategy', consider the missed opportunities and pick the seats to watch.

By Tim Watkin

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Analysis - What was National thinking? In Caucus this week, Guyon Espiner, Tim Watkin, Julian Wilcox and Lisa Owen look at National's decision to warn voters of a second election, saying the quiet things out loud and its overall 'Winston strategy'. Why didn't they make a call sooner to wall off New Zealand First and what price changing its position so late in the game? Or will the 'quiet Tory' effect take over in the booth?

Which seats are the ones to watch, especially as polls suggest Labour faces a tidal shift from the 2020 'red wave' that have put as many as half their electorate MPs at risk? Which MPs could be saying haere ra? And can the left bloc claw back ground in the final hours?

In this bumper final episode before the election, we also suggest issues that were under-played this campaign or missing altogether. Why weren't we talking about immigration and infrastructure with record net arrivals of 96,000 in the past year? When will New Zealand have a full-on climate election? What about superannuation and how the centre-right parties line up? And where was the grown-up conversation on co-governance and our democracy?

The team looks back over the campaign - the best and worst lines, the stand-out policies and performers and the winners and losers of Election 2023... so far.

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Grumpy voters, crimes against candidates, desperate parties, unsophisticated MMP strategies and the return of John Key. As the campaign peaks, so does the tension.

By Tim Watkin

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In Caucus this week, Julian Wilcox, Lisa Owen, Guyon Espiner and Tim Watkin look at the angry mood of the campaign.

Candidates are suffering unacceptable threats from the public. So why are people so fractious? What impact are Covid, co-governance and the cost of living having on voters or are we being influenced by global trends? Parties and their proxies are also starting to lose their cool - name-calling, making up claims, turning mountains into molehills and trying some desperate pleas.

National has turned to John Key to try to persuade voters of the risks of New Zealand First, but the Caucus crew ask which voters they think he can swing. The Opportunities Party's Raf Manji has suggested a deal with National in Ilam. National quickly rejected it, but did National miss a trick months ago when it put all its eggs in the National/ACT basket?

We look back at 2020 and 2017 to gauge New Zealander's history with split-voting and how that might influence this election. And we ask whether we should be worried about threats to the independence of media, the judiciary and Pharmac.

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National's decision to form a government with New Zealand First as "as a last resort" is both a plea and a warning. What might a "cocktail" with ACT and NZF taste like? Could Luxon hold it together? And is NZF a racist party?

By Tim Watkin

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This week's Caucus looks at Christopher Luxon's landmark call to open the door to forming a government with New Zealand First and ACT. Predecessors John Key and Simon Bridges had ruled out governing with Winston Peters, saying they didn't trust him.

Former Prime Minister and coalition partner Jenny Shipley said working with Peters could be "a trainwreck". Yet Luxon has chosen another path, based on the "principle" that New Zealand needs a change of government above all else.

Lisa Owen, Guyon Espiner, Julian Wilcox and Tim Watkin discuss the enigma that is Winston Peters, National's options in negotiations, New Zealand First's policies, and what's different this time with New Zealand First. Plus, they examine the week of debates - the Young Leaders, Kaupapa Maori, and Newshub Leaders events.

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Chris Hipkins needs a new song and dance routine and fast, or he could be doing the limbo and losing the next generation of Labour's leaders.

By Tim Watkin

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Analysis - Another poll, another 27 for Labour. It was July the last time one of the reputable TV company polls had Labour's poll percentage starting with a three, so the limbo question is now being asked: how low can you go?

It seems such an unlikely question because this doesn't feel like the kind of election that delivers a 27 percent major party. Usually parties crumble because of internal dissent, a tanking economy or radical reform.

Labour has been cautious in its reforms; many of its supporters say too cautious. The economy's sub-par, but take away the partisan politics and it's pretty clear that's the result of war in Europe, global inflation, China's woes and paying off the costs of a pandemic either major party in government would have accrued. (Before you argue, look at how a National government responded to the global financial crisis and Christchurch earthquakes). Inflation is falling, we were never in a recession, the credit agencies are giving us AAAs, and unemployment has stayed low. What's more, Labour has united behind Chris Hipkins and backed him to run this campaign as he wants. There's none of the back-biting and dysfunction of the Shearer/Cunliffe/Little years.

Yet as we discuss on this week's Caucus podcast, voters this far into the campaign are proving unwilling to take another look at Labour. They've done their Covid time; seen the failings of KiwiBuild, light rail and the rest; tsked at Cabinet ministers behaving badly; wept at the price of kumara and so far been unwilling to reconsider this government.

The right bloc of National and ACT is holding around 47-49 percent. It's tight when it comes to whether they will need New Zealand First to have a majority - a nightmare scenario for any major party trying to govern with less than 40 percent support, as Guyon Espiner says - but it mirrors the results John Key and various ACT leaders delivered through three elections. Things are looking good for the right.

What's perhaps yet under-appreciated is the disaster a 27 percent result would be for Labour and its future. If we assume Labour will hold 30 seats (the assumption being it loses it red wave wins of 2020 and maybe one or two more), then 27 percent and New Zealand First in Parliament would give Labour just four list MPs. …

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Multiple polls point to a change of government. Is National passing the sniff test? Do voters really want ACT's 'real change' or a handbrake? We ask what a centre-right government might look like.

By Tim Watkin

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Analysis - David Seymour is usually more a talker than a fighter, an ideas man; but he's been flexing his political muscles during this election campaign. Running as high 13 percent in major media polls this year (and even 18 percent in one Roy Morgan), ACT has been threatening to become the most successful minor party ever under MMP. (New Zealand First got 13.3 percent in 1996, in the first MMP election). But with two polls showing ACT slipping to 10 percent, has the mouse roared too much and is Seymour misreading the mood for change?

In this week's Caucus podcast, we look at what the polls are suggesting a change of government may look like. Labour and the Greens are painting the picture of a National-ACT coalition as the most free-market, right-wing government New Zealand has ever seen. If New Zealand First is needed, they predict chaos. And as Guyon Espiner says in the podcast, Luxon's inexperience alongside Peters' and Seymour's belligerence could mean we are back at the polls in no time if the votes require that three-way coalition arrangement.

At this stage, voters don't seem to be concerned. National leader Christopher Luxon has caught up with Labour's Chris Hipkins in the preferred prime minister stakes as National has reached 39 or 40 percent in this week's polls. that suggests that, while New Zealanders may not be taking Luxon to their collective breast, he's passed a certain sniff test. He's not the liability Labour was hoping he'd be. Sure, he repeats lines like a parrot and his tax plan doesn't add up, but he's good enough. And he's working hard not to appear mean and scary. Just this week Luxon said, "I consider myself very much a centrist and I'm very much a pragmatist." So voters don't seem to be afraid of a hard swing to the right as in 1984 or 1990. And most of all, he's not the incumbent government.

Just as the British public voted out Winston Churchill within weeks of VE Day at the end of the Second World War and chose a new government to 'win the peace', so the New Zealand public seem to want to wash their hands of the pandemic government. So long and thanks for all the vax.

That puts the pressure on National to, as Lisa Own puts it, deliver the sunlight. Voters are wanting better times and any new government will be on the clock to deliver, which could be hard in this global economic (and literal) climate…

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Should we be worried about the election campaign going negative? Or is the greater worry party leaders who can't get their facts straight?

By Tim Watkin

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Analysis - It's been all about the fear and loathing in campaign land this week, with every party accusing another of negativity, lies and the inability to run even the Venezuelan economy.

The oft-forgotten subtitle of Hunter S Thompson's famous book, Fear and Loathing in Law Vegas, is "a savage journey to the heart of the American dream", and if you were to believe National's campaign chair Chris Bishop this week, New Zealand had embarked on its own savage journey into democratic chaos.

"The most negative election campaign in New Zealand history," he declared on day three of the official campaign period, after a Council of Trade Union (CTU) ad that claimed National's Christopher Luxon was "out of touch" and "too much risk".

The Caucus team calls hyperbole on that in this week's podcast. Most campaigns - if not all - go negative at times, and others have been more negative. Lisa Owen points to the 'Dirty Politics' campaign of 2014, Guyon Espiner and Julian Wilcox plump for 2005 when Helen Clark and Don Brash had a clear dislike of each other, while I throw back to 1975 and National's famous 'dancing Cossacks' ad, claiming that Labour's national superannuation scheme was the start on a slippery slope to communism.

Espiner and Wilcox did warn that the negativity Labour, in particular, is engaging in reeks of desperation, and looks like the tactic of a party that knows it's running a distant second. And does it even work to win over voters? They think not.

The risk of all this talk of fear and negativity is that we convince ourselves that our campaign is toxic, turning off voters, undermining public engagement and debate, and talking ourselves into a political funk. That's bad for democracy on every level. Let's take a breath and remember our political debate is a long way from the violence and polarisation we see in so many countries. If the worst we have to endure is a guy hanging over a fence to interrupt a press conference and some mean photos of a party leader, we're not in too bad a shape. Let's not catastrophise…

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National's tax plan is a clever political document but raises questions about "heroic" numbers. We look at how much government spending doesn't change and what's up for grabs in coalition deals. Plus a quick visit to Ilam and Epsom.

By Tim Watkin

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Analysis - National's tax plan released this week was one of the big set pieces left in the Election 2023 campaign, even though the campaign hasn't officially started yet. In the past tax plans have spurred and stalled political momentum, sparked debates about fiscal holes, lost voters and maybe even elections. So though we still have six weeks to go to the election, there was a lot riding on Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis when they talked tax this week. It's the focus of this week's Caucus podcast.

National produced a clever and careful political document. As Julian Wilcox says, they made sure they didn't know the ball on five metres from the try line. That was their first job and they got it done. The narrative crafted was about support for "the squeezed middle", seeking to underline both the caring face of National and its steady hand at the fiscal tiller.

It was a tax plan very much in the modern style of economic managers. This was the National Party of Keith Holyoake and Harry Lake, not the party of Ruth Richardson and Don Brash. National is underlining its softer, centrist credentials, with hardly a hint of reforming zeal. In a week where National leader Christopher Luxon told Morning Report he believes in "better government" rather than smaller government, it was a largely ideological-free document. No trickle-down, no market solutions.

Instead, it was a tax plan for swing voters. As Lisa Owen puts it, National and Labour are crashing into the centre. National won't touch Labour's winter energy payments or fees-free tertiary policy, for example. It will boost the Working For Families in-work tax credit by exactly the same amount as Labour. It carefully designed tax relief so that those on $80,000 a year would get the same dollar amount in their "back pocket: as someone earning 10 times that or more". You could see the delight on Luxon's face when he was able to point that out, nixing Prime Minister Chris Hipkins' favourite line of the past few weeks, that National was a party giving tax cuts to millionaires. That attack line has been silenced…

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ACT endures scrutiny, Shane Jones impersonates Julie Andrews and we recall 1999, while Lacklustre Luxon and Ho Hum Hipkins fail to inspire.

By Tim Watkin

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Analysis - A new 1News Verian poll shows it is an uphill battle for the centre-left bloc, while ACT starts to feel the pressure of wanting to be treated like a big party. Does it risk blowing up like a Guy Fawkes night firework?

Chris Hipkins' falling popularity narrows Labour's potential path to victory, while National steps on Pharmac's independence in its rush to make Christopher Luxon appear more caring.

This week's episode of Caucus looks back to parallels between this campaign and the 1999 election, while Shane Jones takes to the hills to sing for Northland.

The 1News Verian Poll put National at 37 percent, Labour at 29 percent, ACT at 13 percent, the Greens at 12 percent, NZ First at 3.7 percent, Te Pāti Māori at 2.6 percent and TOP 0.6 percent.

Guyon Espiner said in order for National to be a credible leader of the next government, it needs to be up in the late 30s and they seemed to be going in that direction.

"It's interesting to me that ACT's vote had held up so well with National clearly on the rise and having some momentum and at that level of 13 percent, they would be the biggest, you know supporting partner in a government we've ever seen other than New Zealand First in '96."

The fact ACT could be a significant player in the next government would encourage people to delve into the party's background to find out more about it, he said.

Lisa Owen said ACT leader David Seymour had been laying the groundwork knowing his party's figures "have been building and holding".

ACT leader David Seymour

"Just looking back at David Seymour's comments over the last few months and he has said ACT should no longer be seen as a small party, and of the partnership with National he said they're going to have to be prepared to share power and be prepared to reverse policies that the Labour Party has put in place."

Owen said the trend in the polls was not Labour's friend, but National's, as a slide to the right had become evident.

Seymour this week created controversy after this comment on scrapping the Ministry of Pacific Peoples: "We'd probably send a guy called Guy Fawkes in there and it would be all over, but we'd probably have to have a more formal approach than that" - Seymour later said it was a joke.

Espiner said it made him wince when he heard the comment…

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With little money in the government's coffers heading into Election 2023, the Caucus podcast looks at how the two main parties plan to use fear, frugality and friendliness to win your vote.

By Tim Watkin

Analysis: Labour's campaign strategy of stinginess has started to take shape, as it rolled out tax and welfare policies this week.

Labour's big reveals - taking the GST off fruit and vegetables and increasing in-work tax credits by $25/week in 2024 - also pulled back the curtain on how it hopes to steal the election from National and ACT. While a big fuss was made of the details of the GST policy in particular - and its rejection by tax and health experts - this week's Caucus podcast discussed the politics behind the policy.

The design flaws have been well traversed and Finance Minister Grant Robertson's discomfort with the policy couldn't be clearer, as was Jacinda Ardern's, David Cunliffe's and David Shearer's in previous iterations of Labour. It's a tortured political manoeuvre for Robertson, who clearly is no fan of the policy. He told the Auckland Business Chamber last March that it would make no sense take the GST off fresh beetroot and leave it on tinned beetroot if you wanted to help low income New Zealanders, yet that's exactly what he's just promised to do.

He has to argue the new Grocery Commissioner will ensure that GST-savings will be passed to the consumer, when reports in Britain have shown the removal of the 5% VAT from period products led to just a 1% cut in prices. You know who also has a Grocery Commissioner (or a Grocery Code Adjudicator)? Britain. As Guyon Espiner mentions in the podcast, it's also a tough sell for Labour as a party that likes to pride itself on backing evidence-based policy, as seen during its pandemic response.

But this is a different Labour Party with a different leader. And Chris Hipkins' Labour is pitching itself as a careful economic manager, a safe pair of hands during a cost of living crisis, a party led by a working-class lad who knows times are tough and is reining in those big-spending lefties in his ranks. It's determined to give National no scope to use its usual 'typical tax and spend Labour' charge. Indeed, this week it looks like Labour is trying to turn the tables on National. It has been proudly stingy with these big announcements that, frankly, weren't that big. …

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Get your teeth into the big announcements on climate change, cellphones and teeth. Caucus debates the BlackRock deal, China, free dentalcare affordability and teachers as the "phone police"

By Tim Watkin

Drivers, start your engines. The campaign seemed to get into gear this week with the government making a number of announcements that looked to have at least one eye on the October election. Is this finally going to be a climate election?

Chris Hipkins has now had a week or two in which his Cabinet is the same at the start as at the finish, so he was able to stand in front of a lot microphones talking about the things that he reckons matter to New Zealanders. Front and centre was the $2 billon BlackRock investment fund, to help New Zealand reach the goal of 100 percent renewable energy. He called it a "watershed" in New Zealand's transition away from fossil fuels. But then his predecessor, Jacinda Ardern, said climate change was New Zealand's was having her generation's "nuclear-free moment" back in 2017 and our greenhouse gas emissions are much the same now as they were then. So will it make a difference?

This week's Caucus drills into the deal and what it means. From a climate point of view, it puts the transition away from fossil fuels at the head of the policy pack. The government stressed it was a "world first" and grabbed global attention. Its hope is that it's the sort of thing that makes you proud to be a New Zealander, in contrast to your justice minister being arrested, which most certainly does not.

For NZ Inc it's a PR win for the country's clean, green image, as it is for BlackRock - a big investor in fossil fuels which is looking to build its greentech investments as well. Getting global headlines for a "world first" (eg Bloomberg: "New Zealand Works With BlackRock in Pursuit of 100% Green Power") and having serious people spending serious money here is always a win for the government of the day. But it's only a drop in the bucket of the estimated $42b the we'll need to spend to get to 100 percent or our $210b infrastructure deficit.

It exposed some gaps between the major parties in other areas as well. Labour's partnership with American financiers to build green infrastructure stands out in a week when National's leader Christopher Luxon said he would "absolutely" take money from China's massive Belt and Road Initiative for more roads…

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