It seemed on election night that Democrats in California were going to flip perhaps a couple of the seven Republican-held seats they were targeting in the House of Representatives. Three weeks later, the Democrats have flipped all seven — not only turning all of Orange County blue, but also two seats in the Central Valley. In our final Keys To The House episode, Capitol Bureau Chief Ben Adler talks with political experts about how this happened and what this means for California’s two major political parties.

Guests:

Mike Madrid, principal, GrassrootsLab
@madrid_mike

Paul Mitchell, vice president, Political Data Inc.
@paulmitche11

Democrats now hold the Keys to the House, but many California races still hang in the balance. In this week’s episode, we discuss what the heck just happened in Tuesday’s midterm election. Did we see a ‘blue wave’ in California? What do the results say about California’s politics?

Capital Public Radio’s Ben Adler talks with political data analyst Paul Mitchell and Los Angeles Times Politics Reporter Christine Mai-Duc about Democratic enthusiasm, Republican motivation and all the races that are still too close to call.

Guests:

Christine Mai-Duc
Political Reporter
LA Times
@cmaiduc

Paul Mitchell
Vice President
Political Data, Inc.
@paulmitche11

By Ben Adler

For Democrats to win California’s battleground congressional races, turning out their own voters won’t be enough. They’ll also have to convince Republicans disgusted with the president to kick their party out of power. In this episode, CapRadio’s Ben Adler speaks with Orange County voters who show the challenges and opportunities facing Democrats in Tuesday’s midterms.

By Sally Longenecker

Republicans have historically been more likely to vote than Democrats — especially in midterm elections. And in the battleground congressional districts of California’s Orange County, there are simply more of them. But the region is becoming more diverse, and younger. Both factors could help Democrats — if they can convince people who don’t usually cast ballots to give it a try this year.

Which California congressional seats should Republicans truly be worrying about losing with control of the House of Representatives at stake in the November election — and which ones are probably just wishful thinking for Democrats?

Host Ben Adler gets the national view from NPR's lead political editor, Domenico Montanaro, and the California perspective from Paul Mitchell, Vice President of Political Data, Inc. They’ll also discuss Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination, California’s gas tax ballot measure, and other factors that might — or might not — determine which voters actually turn out.

Guests

Domenico Montanaro, lead politics editor, NPR
@DomenicoNPR 

Paul Mitchell, vice president, Political Data Inc.
@paulmitche11

The Keys To The House team is sadly saying good-bye to host Ben Bradford. In this episode, Bradford introduces our new host and discusses significant shifts happening in favor of Democrats. He’ll also talk about one congressman who has fallen into legal trouble over campaign spending, including allegedly using funds to fly a pet rabbit across the country.

Challenging for seats in this year’s California primary we had a lottery winner, a famous stem cell researcher, a beekeeper, two Marine colonels, multiple once-prominent state politicians looking for a way back into the spotlight.

All of which leads to a seemingly simple question we’re exploring today: What makes a good candidate? We’re going to challenge some of the most basic assumptions you may have.

We look at a couple of specific candidates, such as Democratic congressional candidate Katie Hill’s bid to upset Republican Rep. Steve Knight for his Los Angeles County seat. She has received national media attention, including a profile in the New Yorker and a two-part Vice series on HBO. Meanwhile, in Orange County, former Republican Assemblywoman Young Kim seeks to replace her former boss, retiring Rep. Ed Royce.

Guests

Darry Sragow, Democratic political strategist, publisher of the California Target Book
@DarrySragow

Melissa Michelson, political science professor, Menlo College
@profmichelson

Paul Mitchell, vice president, Political Data Inc.
@paulmitche11

Latinos are California’s largest ethnic or racial demographic and have played a major role in the state’s increasingly Democratic votes. But Latinos in California still have some of the lowest turnout of any demographic. That has likely helped some Republicans, such as Central Valley Rep. David Valadao, continue to hold office, despite a major disadvantage in party registration.

GOP strategist Mike Madrid and researcher Mindy Romero discuss how “get out the vote” efforts often don’t reach the voters who would most benefit from it and why to avoid the term “sleeping giant.”

Guests:

Mike Madrid, principal, GrassrootsLab
@madrid_mike

Mindy Romero, director California Civic Engagement Project
@MindySRomero

Republican Congressman Jeff Denham has become increasingly vulnerable in recent election cycles, as his district has grown more Democratic. But he’s been able to win over his constituents, even as they’ve voted for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Facing possibly his toughest challenge yet, Denham has been pushing Congress to pass immigration legislation that would include a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers and billions of dollars in funding for the border wall. One bill that Denham was supporting was voted down this week, but he is continuing to call for a bipartisan immigration solution.

Denham has been able to walk a fine line and win over moderate voters in previous election cycles, but will his stance on immigration help or hurt him this time around?

Keys To The House host Ben Bradford discusses Denham’s race with McClatchy’s national political correspondent Alex Roarty and KQED’s state politics reporter Katie Orr.

Guests:

Katie Orr
Politics Reporter
KQED
@1KatieOrr

Alex Roarty
National Political Correspondent
McClatchy
@Alex_Roarty

Stories:

Can One Vote Threaten An Entrenched Republican? Democrats Will Try To Find Out

As Republican Jeff Denham Pushes To Extend DACA, How Do Voters Feel?

California's contentious congressional races in Southern California brought in millions of dollars in campaign spending from national Democratic organizations that previously ignored these districts.

Host Ben Bradford asks political strategists whether the choice to spend big bucks paid off. Experts also talk about the "political chess game" that the parties played in order to succeed under California's "top-two" primary system. And they weigh in on each party’s advantages and challenges going into the general election.

Guests:

Christine Mai-Duc
Political Reporter
LA Times
@cmaiduc

Darry Sragow
Attorney/Former Democratic Political Strategist
@darrysragow

Katie Merrill
Democratic Political Strategist
Take Back California
@katiemerrill

Jen Jacobs
Republican Political Strategist
@jenjacobs92101

Scott Lay
Writer
"Around The Capitol" newsletter
@ScottLay

Paul Mitchell
Vice President
Political Data, Inc.
@paulmitche11

Republican Congressman Dana Rohrabacher has earned the nickname "Putin's Favorite Congressman." And it’s put a target on his back, in a district where Democrats outvoted Republicans in the 2016 presidential race. But so many Democrats are running to unseat him that it possible none may make it past the primary, under California's unusual election rules. Host Ben Bradford and guests explain how Rohrabacher's district is a prime example of a problem Democrats face in multiple races.

Guests

Jack Pitney
Politics Professor, Claremont McKenna College
@jpitney

Paul Mitchell
Vice President, Political Data, Inc.
@paulmitche11