Tomorrow is being billed as Liberation Day— where tariffs will supposedly free America from those pesky, parasitic foreign markets.

But what’s actually going to happen?

This is the subject of today’s podcast.

We discuss:

• How odd it is that no Liberation Day details have leaked… which makes us wonder if there actually are any plans or details to leak.
• If this administration truly believes tariffs are so obviously great for the economy, why would they wait until now instead of doing it day one, as they did with so many other executive actions?
• What might actually unfold, and what it means for markets that are already jittery.
• Questions any rational investor should ask themselves about their goals— for example, are you speculating on share price, or investing in a company’s long term prospects?
• Will tariffs make successful companies immediately and permanently less valuable?

To answer these questions, we bring up examples of well managed, value companies we present to our investment research subscribers, particularly undervalued real asset businesses.

One example’s entire market valuation is less than the cash it has in the bank. Plus it’s profitable and pays a dividend.

Finally, we discuss:

• The long shot scenario of what would need to occur for tariffs to actually work as intended.
• The very plausible scenario that America could become a manufacturing powerhouse again—not thanks to tariffs, but technology.
• The surprising company we identify which likely stands to gain the most from this AI/ automation/ robotics boom.

If tomorrow is “Liberation Day,” then today is the day to be rational.

I encourage you to give it a listen.

https://youtu.be/jNUtSydVBsw

(Podcast transcript is available to you here.)

On June 8, 1974, President Richard Nixon dispatched Treasury Secretary William Simon and his deputy to Saudi Arabia in an attempt to strike one of the most critical—and secretive—economic deals in modern history.

Three years earlier, in August 1971, Nixon had severed the final link between the US dollar and gold, officially ending the Bretton Woods system. That meant foreign governments could no longer redeem their dollars for gold, effectively turning the dollar into a pure fiat currency backed by nothing but political promises.

After Nixon’s move, the US could effectively ‘print’ and spend as much money as it wanted—something that Congress enthusiastically embraced.

Inflation soared, confidence in the dollar plummeted, and foreign countries began dumping dollars as a result.

So Washington hatched a plan.

The mission to Riyadh was a covert, high-stakes operation to engineer artificial demand for the dollar.

They went to convince Saudi Arabia— the world’s largest oil producer— to sell its oil exports exclusively in US dollars. In return, the US would offer military protection, political support, and access to sophisticated weaponry.

It was the birth of the petrodollar.

Pretty much every country on earth was buying oil from Saudi Arabia. And if Saudi Arabia was only selling oil in US dollars, it meant that every country on earth had to continue to own US dollars… and by extension, continue buying US government bonds.

This arrangement has continued for half a century and allowed the US to run massive deficits, ‘print’ money at will, and export inflation around the globe—all while maintaining an illusion of monetary stability.

Today, there is once again grumbling around the world about reliance on the US and its currency.

Even allies like France and Germany are actively working on diversifying out of the US dollar and investing their savings at home, rather than buying more US government bonds.

In response, the Trump administration seems intent on resetting the global financial system and almost forcing foreign countries to continue holding US debt; insiders within the administration refer to it as the ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’, and given the ongoing tariff announcements, it appears they are actually putting the idea into action.

I wrote about this earlier in the week: this is an extremely high-risk gamble.

But there’s one thing the US has going for it… a way to ‘engineer’ demand for US dollars and encourage foreigners to buy US government debt.

Back in the 1970s, the need for oil forced foreign nations to continue owning US dollars.

The oil of today is technology. And foreign nations will most likely line up to get their hands on US technology.

The US is still the leader in advancements like AI and high performance computing, quantum, other advanced semi-conductor technologies, robotics, small scale nuclear, and more.

Obviously other countries possess some of this technology; China still leads in supercomputing and has plenty of its own AI. But much of the core infrastructure— especially advanced semiconductors— is dominated by the United States.

This is potentially an advantage that the US government might exploit (through export controls and more) in order to force foreigners to continue owning dollars… and Treasury bonds.

This is the topic of our podcast today— and we also discuss:

• How the Mar-A-Lago Accord is an enormous gamble
• What happens to the US dollar if the gamble doesn’t pay off
• How they’re also might plan on dismantling Federal Reserve independence
• A 1960s-era economist’s view on why the reserve currency is doomed
• Peter Schiff’s father Irwin, and his testimony to Congress in 1968
• And the right way to solve America’s debt problems

You can listen in here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1E5Wkyr_HA

(Podcast transcript can be downloaded here.)

A few years ago, I was at a private conference listening to a CEO of a silver mining company explain—quite matter-of-factly—how silver prices were being manipulated.

He laid out the whole playbook: how major Wall Street traders would flood the market with short positions in paper silver, drive the price down, and simultaneously accumulate physical silver at rock-bottom prices. Then, once they’d cornered enough physical supply, they’d let prices rise, selling into the momentum they themselves created.

It was a textbook case of market manipulation—illegal, unethical, but enormously profitable.

But what stuck with me wasn’t the CEO’s explanation. It was the reaction of some of the “finance elite” in the room.

A few of them scoffed. You could practically see them rolling their eyes. Manipulate silver? Why would anyone bother? They arrogantly dismissed the notion outright.

Fast forward a couple of years, and guess what happened? JP Morgan paid a nearly $1 billion fine for precisely this kind of manipulation. Several traders went to prison.

Turns out, the “conspiracy theory” was, in fact, reality.

The reason why it happened is because it could happen. Silver is a small enough market where a few large players can force those kind of price fluctuations.

And to me, that is the primary reason why we likely won’t see a sustained run up in silver prices.

Gold has now hit $3,000 per ounce. So could speculation drive silver to ridiculous heights? Absolutely. The Wall Street traders might even pull the reverse of what they did last time and intentionally drive prices up.

But there is a key difference between silver and gold– gold has an obvious catalyst for higher prices: central banks are buying up gold literally by the metric ton in their efforts to diversify away from the US dollar.

The silver market, on the other hand, is simply too small to absorb that amount of capital.

Gold also provides central banks with the best wealth density to easily store vast fortunes of value.

Think about it like this— a barrel of oil is worth about $70. If you fill up that same barrel with silver, you’d have about $1.5 million of value.

But fill it up with gold and suddenly it’s worth about $140 million!

In other words, gold is the one of the most ‘dense’ forms of wealth in existence… and that’s the primary reason why central banks are loading up on it, instead of silver.

We discuss all this in today’s podcast, as well as another precious metal that central bankers might consider accumulating— and it’s not silver.

We also talk about what gold’s latest milestone means, if investors are too late to the party, and some alternative ways to gain exposure to what will likely be a continuing run up in gold prices.

One of those alternatives is investments in profitable, well-managed precious metals companies which are at the moment incredibly undervalued.

That’s because central banks are buying gold, not gold companies.

The last three precious metals companies that we showcased in our 4th Pillar investment research newsletter fit this exact criteria, and are up 27%, 21%, and 40% respectively.

We still think this is a very sensible approach worth considering.

You can listen here.

https://youtu.be/-KNn7mYehr8

Also, you can access the transcript of this video, here.

By the late 1920s, the US economy was booming and had advantages that most of the world did not yet enjoy.

Manufacturing in America was extremely competitive due to mass electrification powering factories. Farmers had traded out horses and mules for trucks and tractors.

US productivity was surging.

Global trade was still recovering from World War I, but there was enough sense at the League of Nations (the precursor to the United Nations) to campaign against trade barriers.

The final report from the World Economic Conference in 1927 concluded that “the time has come to put an end to tariffs. . .”

But America decided to move in the opposite direction.

Two politicians, Willis Hawley and Reed Smoot put forth a plan to impose steep tariffs that reached as high as 59.1% on some products.

The infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act passed in 1930, and almost immediately, countries around the world imposed their own retaliatory tariffs against the US.

Global trade plummeted as a result, which became a major factor in prolonging an almost never-ending and extremely painful economic depression.

I don’t think another Great Depression is in the cards right now, but frankly all these threats of tariffs are starting to have an impact.

Stock market investors are realizing that a recession is clearly on the table, and that business and consumer sentiment across the board have taken a nose dive.

That could all rebound just as quickly as it has fallen, but the larger point is that tariffs will absolutely make the country, and the world for that matter, much worse off.

The key reason is that tariffs force the economy to operate below its maximum potential.

Think about it on an individual basis. Imagine if Tom Cruise were sacking groceries instead of making movies. I think most people would probably acknowledge that creating multi-billion dollar box office hits is a hard thing to do, and sacking groceries would be below his potential.

The same goes for a trained and experienced neurosurgeon— picking turnips is not the best use of his or her time.

The US economy is certainly capable of producing just about anything. But there’s no point in deliberately producing below your potential— i.e. taking scarce talent and resources away from more valuable more productive sectors, and instead focusing that energy to make socks and underwear.

If an economy consistently underachieves its potential, everyone is worse off as a result— regardless of whether that results in a near-term recession.

The US has the potential in small-scale nuclear reactors, and emerging technology in AI, automation, robotics, and high-performance computing to create a level of abundance and prosperity that is almost unimaginable. That advantage is specific to the United States and that reality could be just a few years away because most of that technology exists or is close.

And that’s what the US needs to get out of its $36 trillion debt problem— a productivity and innovation driven economic boom.

Tariffs throw cold water on the whole thing.

This is what we discuss in today’s podcast.

We also touch on:

• Recent stock market swings
• The valuation of stocks now, and historically
• Who is investing in the stock market today
• What could drive investors into bonds
• And more.

You can listen here.

https://youtu.be/gisCd7pMpS8

(The podcast transcript is available to you here.)

Even during the darkest moments of the Biden administration—the shameful withdrawal from Afghanistan, 9% inflation, bureaucrats hell-bent on destroying the economy—I still said America’s problems were fixable.

But I didn’t see any hope in the previous administration or a prospective Kamala administration to fix things and only expected them to grow worse.

We’re now a month and a half into a new administration, and it’s fair to say some things are going very well.

There are others that, depending on your view, are not.

One big concern I have is that no one is interested in reforming Social Security—a massive entitlement program whose own trustees say will run out of money over the next several years. This is a gargantuan financial crisis in the making, a ticking time bomb that no one wants to touch.

Depending on your priorities, foreign relations are also on the list of concerns.

If you’re more isolationist, you might think that the unwinding of relationships and alliances is no big deal—that the world needs America more than America needs the world.

But there are consequences to that…

$28 trillion of US government debt is coming due over the next four years, and a lot of that is owned by foreign governments and central banks.

The Treasury Department needs these players to go along and reinvest—not only in America but specifically in US government bonds.

And if relationships are too fractured, they might not be willing to do that.

That could create an enormous fiscal crisis that would most likely result in a lot of inflation.

It also puts into question the US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency, which it has enjoyed for more than 80 years.

The reality, however, is that while the short-term consequences of losing reserve status could be profound, in the long term, reserve currency status is not a requirement for economic prosperity.

There are plenty of countries around the world—Taiwan, Singapore, Switzerland, etc.—that are prosperous nations and do not have the global reserve currency.

In some respects, reserve status is a huge benefit, but also a bit of a handcuff.

In today’s podcast episode, we explore what we call the “controlled demolition” of America’s reserve status—a way for America to potentially remain powerful yet lose that reserve status.

That could be the outcome over the next four years.

And today, we discuss the paths and consequences of that scenario.

Spoiler Alert: It’s probably good for gold, and possibly crypto too.

https://youtu.be/64rBPmknUZQ

(You can access this video’s transcript here.)

On October 20, 2022, Liz Truss resigned as UK prime minister after just 44 days in office—the shortest tenure in British history.

She was brought down not by a no-confidence vote or a party coup, but by a full-scale bond market rebellion.

Her government’s proposed mini-budget, featuring sweeping tax cuts, triggered a historic sell-off in UK government bonds (gilts), sending yields soaring and the pound crashing.

As panic spread, the Bank of England was forced to intervene to prevent a financial meltdown, and with markets, party members, and the public losing faith, Truss’s premiership collapsed.

Such is the fate of governments when they don’t control the global reserve currency.

The US government should heed this warning.

But it seems more likely to barrel ahead with the false premise: America will always remain THE dominant global superpower that can do whatever it wants.

That’s the subject of today’s podcast.

We discuss these types of false premises— Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, it will take just two weeks to stop the spread of COVID— mistakes that over and over cost the US trillions of dollars.

And nowhere is this more egregious today than in the idea that the US dollar will remain the reserve currency, whatever the US does to push other countries away.

We talk about how a series of laws has escalated the weaponization of the US dollar, starting with the PATRIOT Act in 2001, then FATCA in 2010, and the freezing of Russia’s US assets in 2022.

Now, the Mar-A-Lago Accord is being floated, which includes an idea to strong-arm US allies into swapping their US Treasuries for 100-year, non-tradeable, zero-coupon bonds.

After all, the argument goes, the US provides defense for much of the world, it is only right that other nations should pay for it in some way.

But we discuss why this is such a bad idea, and how it will only push countries into finding alternatives for the US dollar, robbing the US of its power to influence global affairs with the currency, and stripping the US dollar of much of its demand, and therefore value.

You can listen to the full podcast here.

https://youtu.be/s9hQU9w5QWw

We write a lot about the US government’s dismal financial condition— $36.2 trillion in debt, $1.1 trillion in annual interest expenses, and a $1.8 trillion annual deficit.

But in today’s podcast we take a closer look at the numbers and the government’s actual balance sheet as if it were a business, including all of its assets and liabilities.

The government doesn’t just have debt. Offsetting that debt is a pretty substantial pile of cash, financial assets, and other resources like land or gold.

Some of these assets are significantly undervalued and worth trillions of dollars more than what the government reports.

So we dove into the numbers today to determine what the government’s actual “net worth” is, i.e. if you add up all the assets and subtract the liabilities (including the debt).

Spoiler Alert: Uncle Sam’s net worth is horrifically bad… on the order of MINUS $100 TRILLION.

In other words, according to their own financial report, the situation is much worse than just the $36+ trillion debt. And it really needs to be addressed immediately.

We’ve been writing for a couple of years that there is a very, very narrow window of opportunity to put the US government’s finances back on the right track. And there are few signs right now which appear to be helpful.

But other developments are frustratingly counterproductive… and even destructive.

Restoring confidence is a HUGE part of America’s recovery… and, let’s be honest, this administration isn’t helping restore confidence when it threatens allies with tariffs, or blames Ukraine for being invaded.

It takes us back to what we wrote yesterday regarding Warren Buffett’s somber admonishment: maintaining a sound currency “requires both wisdom and vigilance,” and based on what we’re seeing right now, that’s far from a forgone conclusion.

Click below to listen in to today’s episode.

https://youtu.be/f1-1X29_cO4

I want to present two choices for you to pick from.

One is a world leader who was recently sued by a transgender prison inmate who felt that this person’s recent executive order was unfair.

The second is another world leader who has suspended elections, forcibly presses people into the military, has closed his border, and has complete control over the press and the flow of information.

If you were forced to label one of these two as a dictator, which would it be?

Most people would probably think the second guy.

And yet our dear friends in the legacy media continue to insist it is the first.

There’s already been so much ink spilled this week over who called who a dictator, and the press has been obligingly deranged in its coverage.

But we received enough questions from readers asking for our thoughts on the matter that we thought we’d weigh in on Ukraine, Zelensky, and the standard of being a dictator in 2025.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcj4D54lFRA

Last summer, the Federal Reserve wanted you to believe that inflation was a thing of the past.

Sure, just about every category of consumer goods had increased in price. Electricity rates had increased 5% year over year. Rent and housing costs were up 5%. Hospital care had become 6% more expensive. Food prices were up. Fuel prices were up. Auto insurance had risen by a whopping 18.6%.

Yet, bizarrely, the overall inflation average was just 2.9%. And based on that number alone, the Federal Reserve had all but declared victory against inflation.

We knew it was BS. And, after diving into the numbers, it didn’t take us very long to realize why.

It turned out that, back in the summer of 2024, used car prices were falling dramatically— down around 11% year-over-year.

You probably remember what happened: during the pandemic, supply chain snarls and factory closures caused used car prices to go through the roof. Eventually, prices peaked… and then started to fall.

By July 2024, used car prices were still on their way down… essentially returning to a more ‘normal’ level. And based on the way that the government calculates inflation, the huge drop in used car prices dragged down the overall average, making the headline inflation rate appear smaller than it really was.

We wrote about this last summer. And we predicted that the decline in used car prices would soon cease… essentially eliminating the key drag that was holding the inflation rate down.

That has now happened. And as of last month, used car prices are no longer falling… and the overall rate of inflation is once again on the rise.

This is where our discussion begins in today’s podcast, and it’s an important one. We talk about why, at this point, lingering inflation is a major challenge. And it’s becoming a more likely scenario.

There are obviously some forces within the government that are working really hard to cut spending. There are also legions of misguided (or flat-out corrupt) politicians who are fighting to prevent those budget cuts from happening.

It’s a see-saw right now and could go either way. But, at least for now, the government is still spending taxpayer money like a drunken sailor.

Last year’s budget deficit was nearly $2 trillion. They’re already on track to repeat that this year. All of that deficit spending adds to the $36+ trillion national debt.

But what makes matters even worse is that an unbelievable $28 trillion of the national debt will have to be refinanced over the next four years, according to Federal Reserve data. (We show you the Fed’s data in the podcast— it’s a chart you’ll want to see.)

The key problem, of course, is that interest rates are significantly higher today than they were several years ago. So when the Treasury Department refinances that $28 trillion in debt, it will be at a MUCH higher rate.

Think about it— if most of that debt was sold at a 2% rate, but now they have to refinance at 5%, then that’s an extra 3% interest to pay on $28 trillion— or $840 billion per year in additional interest.

Remember that the government’s interest bill is already $1.1 trillion per year. So in four years it could easily eclipse $2 trillion per year. Again, this is just the amount of interest.

It’s also pretty clear that a lot of foreign governments and central banks— who own a huge chunk of that $28 trillion which needs to be refinanced— are looking to diversify away from the dollar.

It’s already happening; obviously there are the loudmouthed BRICS countries that have started trading with one another in their own currencies, and thus begun reducing their dollar holdings. But even supposed ally nations in Europe are starting to trade their US dollar reserves for gold.

This is setting up a precarious situation… because if foreign governments and central banks continue reducing their dollar exposure, then who is going to buy up all that $28 trillion worth of US government debt that needs to be refinanced?

Well, the only remaining lender is the Federal Reserve. And as we’ve discussed before, the Fed buys government bonds by printing money… which ultimately causes inflation.

During the pandemic, the Fed printed $5 trillion and we got 9% inflation. Over the next four years the Fed might have to print a good chunk of that $28 trillion just to help refinance US government debt. So what will inflation be? No one knows. But probably not their magical 2% target.

The only way out is to slash government spending. And certainly there is a lot of low hanging fruit for DOGE to cut, which could get the deficit (and therefore inflation) under control.

But this is far from a risk-free proposition. And that’s why it still makes so much sense to have a Plan B.

We discuss all this, and more, in today’s podcast— and we hope you take time to listen in here.

https://youtu.be/OKlpqLzY5yo?si=TF3Qp1YD1bCyc_Zr

PS- We’re still running a limited time promotional offer on our premium investment research service The 4th Pillar, which includes research on several undervalued gold companies, as well as many other real asset investments.

But this 50% discount on the annual subscription price is ending soon. Click here to find out more.

We recently received a question from a reader asking for my thoughts on crypto.

He said we’ve been talking about gold a lot lately, the gold price, and how the price could go a lot higher. Shouldn’t we hold the same views on crypto, given everything that has happened with Bitcoin over the last year or so?

We ended up doing a whole podcast about this today,

We talk a lot about gold, and a lot about crypto.

To clarify, I’m not anti-crypto. In fact, I brought Bitcoin to our audience’s attention back in 2013, when the price was under $100.

But there are some differences to gold.

Right now, I think there are some major catalysts that could drive the price of gold much higher. It’s a matter of arithmetic, and we walk you through the math on it.

The other important thing is that while gold is at an all time high, gold related businesses have been in the dumps for a long time. And that’s a bizarre anomaly that is simply not going to last.

Conversely, that same dynamic doesn’t seem to exist with crypto related businesses.

And we talk about, in today’s podcast, Microstrategy, as perhaps the best example.

This is essentially now a Bitcoin holding company, with 478,000 Bitcoin, valued at around $45 billion. Yet Microstrategy’s market cap is almost double that.

So if the point is to buy Microstrategy stock as a proxy for Bitcoin, you’re actually paying double the price.

Versus with gold, we have the opportunity to pay less than two times forward earnings for gold companies that have an all in production cost of $1,500 per ounce— roughly half the price of gold.

So it’s a completely different dynamic, and we explore all this and more in today’s podcast.

We even talk about the Microstrategy convertible notes, and why it’s frankly wildly inappropriate at this point to even compare “crypto” and gold.

You can listen to the full podcast below.

https://youtu.be/gdIO-mYQWj8

In the year 1025, the Byzantine Empire stood at the height of its final golden age.

Basil II had just died, leaving behind a vast and wealthy empire stretching from Southern Italy to Armenia.

At the heart of its economy was the solidus, a gold coin that had served as the bedrock of Mediterranean trade for centuries. Merchants from Venice to Baghdad had so much confidence in its purity that the solidus became the primary currency for international trade as far away as China.

And this ‘reserve currency’ status allowed Byzantium to project economic power far beyond its borders.

But as the empire declined, so did its currency. Successors debased the solidus to cover military costs, mixing in copper and silver until it was barely recognizable.

By the late 11th century, merchants could no longer rely on the Byzantine government to maintain the purity of the solidus… so traders turned to a new, up-and-coming alternative: the Venetian ducat.

This pattern has repeated itself for thousands of years: reserve currencies come and go, and are eventually displaced by another.

Before the solidus, Rome had set the standard with its denarius, but centuries of inflation and political collapse led to its demise.

After Venice, the Spanish real de ocho became the world’s preferred trade currency, thanks to galleons loaded with New World silver. When Spanish power faded, the Dutch guilder took over, only to be replaced by the British pound sterling, which reigned until two world wars left Britain financially exhausted.

Even the US dollar, during its first two and a half decades as the global reserve currency, was based on gold, until in 1971, the dollar was removed from the gold standard.

The whole concept of fiat currency (i.e. paper currency which relies entirely on trust and confidence of the issuing government) holding coveted reserve status is a new phenomenon.

That means trusting the largest debtor in the history of the world, trusting the US financial system, abiding by the US government’s regulations, and dealing with the whims of their central bank—despite its mismanagement, soaring debt, and reckless policies.

So much can go wrong. And at some point in the future—whether years or decades from now—the US dollar will lose its status as the world’s reserve currency.

No currency has ever held that title forever, and it’s naive to assume the dollar will be the exception.

When that moment comes, future historians will look back in astonishment, wondering how it lasted as long as it did. Because a system built entirely on trust can only survive as long as that trust remains.

And for most of this century, the US government has proven time and again that it cannot be trusted.

We explore this topic in depth in today’s podcast, and discuss how and why gold will be the beneficiary of the dollar’s loss.

We also discuss:

• The short term “wins” possible by using tariffs as a political tool
• The long term damage to the dollar done by threatening allies
• What could replace the dollar as the global reserve currency
• The benefits of holding physical gold (for individuals and central banks)
• Investments that offer exposure to gold’s upside, without paying all time highs for physical bullion

We also mention a gold company that we are profiling this month for subscribers to our investment research newsletter, The 4th Pillar, which focuses on real asset investments.

And if you’d like to learn more about The 4th Pillar, which we are offering at a discount for a limited time, click here.

You can listen to the podcast here.

https://youtu.be/ALVdo5Xu0Ms