This week, a special episode taped live at the University of California, Berkeley — my alma mater — on March 6 and featuring Jessica Chen Weiss of Johns Hopkins SAIS and Ryan Hass of the Brookings Institution, both well-known to people who follow U.S.-China relations. This episode was made possible by the Center for Chinese Studies at UC Berkeley's Institute for Asian Studies, and will be available on video as well — I'll update with the link.

5:32 – Looking back on the Biden administration’s approach to China

12:28 – Attempting to outline the new Trump administration’s approach to China

20:34 – The view from Beijing of Trump 2.0

26:54 – The Kindleberger Trap (and other "traps")

29:35 – China, the U.S., and the Russo-Ukrainian war, and the idea of a “reverse Kissinger” 

34:23 – The problem with framing objectionable Trump policy moves as ceding victories to China 

36:51 – How countries in the Western Pacific region are responding to the new administration 

38:48 – Taiwan’s concerns for Trump’s shift on Ukraine

41:45 – Predictions for how the Trump administration will handle technology competition with China, and the apparent abandonment of industrial policy 

48:14 – What the affirmative vision for U.S.-China policy should look like 

Paying It Forward:

Ryan: Patricia Kim and Jon Czin at Brookings

Jessica: Jeffrey Ding at George Washington University and Jonas Nahm at Johns Hopkins SAIS 

Recommendations:

Jessica: The movie Conclave (2024)

Ryan: Derek Thompson’s piece in The Atlantic, “The Anti-Social Century,” and Robert Cooper’s The Ambassadors: Thinking about Diplomacy from Machiavelli to Modern Times  

Kaiser: The Man Without Qualities by Robert Musil 

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This week, I'm proud to announce a new collaboration with Trivium, a China-focused strategic advisory firm you've probably heard of. They've got offices in DC, London, Shanghai, and Beijing, and they focus on analyzing and forecasting Chinese policy developments for multinational companies and institutional investors across a range of verticals -- including macroeconomics, technology, automotive, resources, renewable energy, critical minerals, and green technology. They put out a terrific podcast each week, and you'll be able to listen to it here or subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Just search for the Trivium China Podcast.

On today's show, you'll hear a half-hour chat between me and the two co-founders, Andrew Polk and Trey McArver, which we taped ahead of the Two Meetings — the NPC and the CPPCC. Then you'll hear a conversation between Andrew and his colleague Dinny McMahon, who you've heard on the show before in an episode we did on the digital yuan, talking about what came out of the Two Meetings.

You'll be hearing from lots of the great folks at Trivium in coming episodes, so be sure to tune in.

Beginning next week, or possibly sooner, we'll also be running a regular economy-focused roundup put together by Andrew and the team at Trivium. That will come out on Fridays.

A warm welcome to Trey, Andrew, and all the excellent people at Trivium!

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This week: Part 2 in a series of podcasts in conjunction with the China Research Center at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). The series, titled "Studying China in the Absence of Access: Rediscovering a Lost Art," ran from September to November 2021, and featured four eminent "Pekingologists," or specialists in Chinese elite politics: Joseph Fewsmith, Thomas Fingar, Alice Miller, and Fred Teiwes. The talks were later published in a volume you can download here. The series is introduced by Andrew Mertha, George and Sadie Hyman, Professor of China Studies and director of the SAIS China Research Center, and each lecture includes a moderated discussion with Andy. After this series, I'll also be sharing with you a second series of lectures titled "Studying China from Elsewhere," which will include talks by Maria Repnikova, Mike Lampton, William Hurst, and Maggie Lewis — many of whom Sinica listeners will know from the show.

Alice Lyman Miller is a leading scholar of Chinese politics and foreign policy. A research fellow at the Hoover Institution and lecturer in East Asian Studies at Stanford University, she previously served as an analyst at the CIA and editor of China Leadership Monitor. Miller's work has been instrumental in decoding the opaque world of Chinese elite politics, with a particular focus on political discourse and leadership transitions. Her major publications include Becoming Asia: Change and Continuity in Asian International Relations Since World War II (2011).

Joseph Fewsmith is one of the foremost experts on contemporary Chinese politics, known for his in-depth analysis of political reform, elite competition, and policy shifts under the Chinese Communist Party. A professor of international relations and political science at Boston University, Fewsmith has authored seminal books such as China Since Tiananmen: The Politics of Transition (2001) and Rethinking Chinese Politics (2021), which challenge conventional wisdom on China's political system. His work blends rigorous historical analysis with close readings of official discourse.

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This week on Sinica: February 24 marks the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and as I’ve done for the last two years, I moderated a panel organized by Vita Golod, a Ukrainian China scholar who happens to be here in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, at UNC as a visiting scholar. She’s worked tirelessly to promote awareness of the war, and I’m honored again to have been asked to moderate this panel.

The guests you'll hear from are:

Dr. Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Director of the China Studies Centre at Riga Stradins University in Latvia. Fluent in Chinese, Russian, and English, she has collaborated with scholars like Kerry Brown of King’s College London and has done extensive work on China's role in Europe and beyond.

Dr. Dmytro Yefremov, Associate Professor in the Department of International Relations at the National University "Kyiv-Mohyla Academy" in Ukraine. A board member of the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists, he specializes in China's foreign relations and has traveled extensively to China, providing firsthand insight into Ukraine's perspective on China's role in the war and beyond.

Dr. Qiang Liu, Director of the Energy Economics Division at the Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics within the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). He also serves as the Co-chair and Secretary-General of the Global Forum on Energy Security. His research focuses on energy security, energy economics, and policy, with a particular emphasis on China's Belt and Road Initiative and its global energy partnerships.

Dr. Klaus Larres, Richard M. Krasno Distinguished Professor of History and International Affairs at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. An expert on transatlantic relations, U.S., German, and EU foreign policy, and China's role in the post-Cold War order, he has a profound interest in the history of the Cold War and the politics of Winston Churchill.

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This week on Sinica, I chat with David Zweig, a veteran China scholar who is Professor Emeritus from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. We discuss Davis'd latest book, The War for Chinese Talent in America, which looks at Chinese efforts to harness the intellectual firepower of Chinese scientists and engineers who studied abroad, especially in the United States, and bring them — or at least their knowledge —back to China. David's book takes a balanced look at both the very real problems generated by Chinese policies as well as the overreaction by the U.S. Department of Justice in the form of the infamous China Initiative.

3:40 – Why got David interested on this particular topic 

7:07 – The diaspora option

12:09 – The Thousand Talents Program/Plan

18:28 – How the talent programs operate

23:48 – Motivations for Chinese to participate in the talent programs, how geopolitics now impacts these decisions, and what the effect of the China Initiative has been on collaboration 

36:29 – The China Initiative’s climate of fear and the concern for racial profiling 

49:40 – The extent of the validity of U.S. security concerns

57:24 – David’s suggestions for balancing national security interests and open scientific exchange 

Paying It Forward: Dan Lynch and his book, China’s Futures: PRC Elites Debate Economics, Politics, and Foreign Policy

Recommendations:

David: It’s a Wonderful World — The Louis Armstrong Musical in New York

Kaiser: The Invention of Yesterday: A 50,000-Year History of Human Culture, Conflict, and Connection by Tamim Ansary, especially the audiobook read by the author

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I’m delighted to bring you today the first in a series of conversations from a remarkable day-long session put on by the Institute for America, China, and the Future of Global Affairs, or ACF, at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). The session was held on Monday, February 3, and was called “Getting China Right.” On today’s show, we’ve got U.S. Senator Andy Kim of New Jersey, one of the best-informed and sensible legislators focused on China today. He’ll be in conversation with James Steinberg, dean of SAIS, who also served as Deputy Secretary of State from 2009 to 2011. You’ll hear introductory remarks from Jim and from Jessica Chen Weiss, inaugural faculty director ACF and David M. Lampton Professor of China Studies at SAIS, who listeners certainly know from her appearances on Sinica. More to come in this series, so stay tuned! Please enjoy Senator Kim’s very thoughtful remarks.

Watch the morning sessions on YouTube here.

The Institute for America, China, and the Future of Global Affairs (ACF) of the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) was established in 2024 to add rigor and reason to public and policy discussions on China and the range of domestic and international issues that intersect China’s global role, bringing together experts and practitioners to foster informed public dialogue, promote evidence-based research, and support the next generation of scholars and practitioners. ACF was founded with the support of Johns Hopkins University and philanthropic contributions from across the United States.

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This week on Sinica, I chat with economic historian Andrew B. Liu of Villanova University about how to understand Trump's thinking on China and tariffs. Andy wrote about this in an excellent piece on N+1 called "Back to the 80s? Trump, Xi Jinping, and Tariffs." Check it out and then listen to the show!

3:59 – How the U.S.’s current trade anxieties echo those of the ‘80s

9:34 – How Cold War geopolitics shaped U.S.-Japan trade relations

18:23 – The lessons China learned from Japan’s experience and how it has shaped its recent economic strategy 

21:03 – What Xi Jinping’s vision for the Chinese economy actually looks like 

34:26 – Why China is favoring a more Ford-like model of industrial structure

41:28 – Michael Pettis’s ideas from Trade Wars Are Class Wars and points of critique 

52:44 – The Trump administration’s use of tariffs

Paying It Forward: Viola Zhou’s reporting on Rest of World (especially her piece on Foxconn in India) and Dong Yige 

Recommendations:

Andrew: Hetty Lui McKinnon’s Substack for vegan modern Cantonese recipes 

Kaiser: The Substack of the Carter Center’s U.S.-China Perception Monitor; and the essay “The new frontline: The US-China battle for control of global networks” on the Transnational Institute website

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This week as we enter the Year of the Snake, Sinica co-founder Jeremy Goldkorn makes a re-appearance on the show. It's been a year since his last, and much has changed — and indeed, if Jeremy is right, we may be at an inflection point in American attitudes toward China. With the "TikTok Refugees" on Xiaohongshu or "RedNote" taking in a view of China that contrasts starkly with the image presented by the U.S. Government and by many American media outlets, and with DeepSeek now having upended some ideas about American tech primacy, the "vibes" on China among young people seem to have changed for the better. Will it endure? Jeremy and I plunge into that question on this week's episode of the Sinica Podcast.

2:55 – What Jeremy has been up to lately 

4:19 – What has been driving the recent narrative/vibe shift in China discourse in the U.S., and why human rights rhetoric around Xinjiang has died down  

14:11 – Whether the narrative/vibe shift will be long-lasting and the role of young people in driving it 

23:06 – Predictions for future changes within China

29:40 – The concern that the narrative/vibe shift could go too far, or that the copium will overwhelm the positive of the shift 

33:24 – Previous narrative shifts around freedom of speech, the internet, and China, and technological innovation 

43:57 – What recent developments reveal about Chinese soft power, and Jeremy’s predictions for how everything will play out 

49:34 – Whether the narrative/vibe shift will change how American politicians talk about China, and the Chinese government has reacted to the shift so far

Paying It Forward: Savannah Billman’s Career China email newsletter 

Recommendations:

Jeremy: Paul Cooper’s Fall of Civilizations podcast series; David Kidd’s Peking Story: The Last Days of Old China; and The 404’s podcast interview with a PornHub exec (which includes discussion of real-name registration requirements) 

Kaiser: The TV miniseries American Primeval (2025) on Netflix; and Paul Triolo’s Substack 

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Happy Chinese New Year! This week, while I'm decompressing from 10 days in the Alps, my friends at the Asia Society of Switzerland have graciously offered to let me share a podcast recorded just after the U.S. presidential election in November at their annual State of Asia event. "The State of China" features three terrific guests: Wang Qing (王卿), the host of the popular Chinese podcast "The Weirdo" (不合时宜), Zichen Wang of the Center for China and Globalization, and Adam Tooze, one of the truly great public intellectuals of our time. It's all skillfully moderated by the South China Morning Post's Europe editor, Finbarr Bermingham, and it covers a lot of ground.

I'll be back next week in conversation with my dear friend Jeremy Goldkorn, and we'll be asking (and answering) the big question — Are we in the middle of a narrative shift on China?

May the Year of the Snake be prosperous and full of happiness and success for all you Sinica listeners!

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This week, I bring you the first in a series of podcasts in conjunction with the China Research Center at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). The series, titled "Studying China in the Absence of Access: Rediscovering a Lost Art," ran from September to November 2021, and featured four eminent "Pekingologists," or specialists in Chinese elite politics: Joseph Fewsmith, Thomas Fingar, Alice Miller, and Fred Teiwes. The talks were later published in a volume you can download here. The series is introduced by Andrew Mertha, George and Sadie Hyman, Professor of China Studies and director of the SAIS China Research Center, and each lecture includes a moderated discussion with Andy. After this series, I'll also be sharing with you a second series of lectures titled "Studying China from Elsewhere," which will include talks by Maria Repnikova, Mike Lampton, William Hurst, and Maggie Lewis — many of whom Sinica listeners will know from the show.

This week's talk is from FrederickTeiwes, truly a legend in the field. The American-born Australian sinologist is best known for his analysis of Chinese Communist Party elite politics. He served as a professor emeritus in Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney until his retirement in 2006. Teiwes has frequently collaborated with Warren Sun, producing seminal works such as The Tragedy of Lin Biao (1996) and China’s Road to Disaster: Mao, Central Politicians and Provincial Leaders in the Great Leap Forward, 1955-59 (1999). In this talk, he focuses on forthcoming work on the transition following Mao Zedong's death in 1976.

Great thanks to Andy and to Hasta Colman, who first suggested this collaboration when we met in Shanghai recently.

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I know I'd said last time there would be no show this week, but that was before this fascinating episode involving TikTok users signing up en masse to Xiaohongshu. Hilarity ensued, and my two guests — Ivy Yang, who runs Wavelet Strategy, an expert in cross-cultural communication, and David Fishman, Shanghai-based senior manager at Lantau Group who specializes in the Chinese energy sector and writes wonderfully about his excursions into the Chinese countryside. They've both been following this fascinating episode closely and have really smart things to say, so enjoy!

5:10 – How the migration of American Tiktokers to Xiaohongshu started 

8:51 – A brief overview of Xiaohongshu: its users, typical content, and culture, including its “we’re all in this together” vibe  

15:35 – The significance of Xiaohongshu as a Chinese app 

19:48 – The scale of the American TikTok refugees phenomenon, and official reactions in the U.S.

24:52 – How Xiaohongshu has managed and reacted to the refugee phenomenon so far, and the PR opportunity presented for the PRC

29:33 – The Chinese government’s perspective 

34:54 – Wholesome and interesting exchanges, and what American and Chinese users are finding surprising or amusing about each other’s cultures

38:50 – Why this new online encounter between Chinese and Americans is different from before 

43:23 – The danger of irrational exuberance, and other risks the Xiaohongshu migration phenomenon presents 

47:52 – The potential for a change in American thinking about China 

Paying It Forward: 

Ivy: Caiwei Chen

David: Robert Wu and Amber Zhang, especially their work on Baiguan, and Robert’s Substack China Translated, especially his essay, “The Great Divorce”

Recommendations:

Ivy: Dopamine Nation: Finding Balance in the Age of Indulgence by Dr. Anna Lembke 

David: Oracle Bones: A Journey Through Time in China by Peter Hessler

Kaiser: Other works by Peter Hessler (River Town: Two Years on the Yangtze; Country Driving: A Chinese Road Trip; and Other Rivers: A Chinese Education), and Telecaster type electric guitars, especially the Sire Larry Carlton T7

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