This week on Sinica, I chat with Michael Swaine, Senior Research Fellow at the Quincy Institute for the last couple of years, prior to which he spent nearly two decades as a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he led extensive work on Chinese defense and foreign policy, U.S.-China relations, and East Asian international relations more broadly. He was also a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, where he developed a reputation for rigorous research on Asian security and crisis management. We focus on his recent report, “Avoiding the Abyss: An Urgent Need for Sino-U.S. Crisis Management,” which offers both a framework for understanding the forces driving U.S.-China crises and a roadmap to prevent or manage these crises effectively. He drew on his many decades of experience working on the security dimension of the bilateral relationship, including his participation in many Track II dialogues and simulations of crisis scenarios over the years.

4:51 – Defining "crisis" and "crisis prevention" 

10:13 – The possibility of a crisis in the South China Sea

12:31 – Lessons from past crises  

20:08 – The problematic moralistic stances and tit-for-tat escalation produced by yǒulǐ, yǒulì, yǒu jié 有理, 有利, 有节

27:37 – U.S. concern over the credibility of its alliance commitments 

34:50 – The problem of perception 

38:16 – Examples of how each side is sometimes unable to see how its own actions are perceived by the other 

41:20 – The dangers of failing to understand and making assumptions about the China’s historical memory 

45:42 – Problems of signaling and how best to solve them 

51:17 – Mike’s suggestions for a crisis toolkit and his proposal of a civilian-led two-tier dialogue structure 

58:41 – Track II dialogues 

1:02:47 – The importance of educating leaders up and down the system on crisis management 

1:06:08 – The structural issues of the decision-making systems in China and the U.S.

Recommendations:

Michael: Art critic Brian Sewell’s The Reviews That Caused the Rumpus; Robert Suettinger’s The Conscience of the Party: Hu Yaobang, China’s Communist Reformer  

Kaiser: The Great Transformation: China’s Road from Revolution to Reform by Odd Arne Westad and Chen Jian 

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The British literary quarterly Granta has published a new issue dedicated to Chinese writers, featuring familiar mainstays of contemporary literature and some fresh new voices. This week on Sinica, I chatted with Thomas Meaney, editor of Granta, about what's happening in the literary scene in China today and how this fantastically interesting issue came together. Tom is wonderfully thoughtful and articulate, and we really get into some of the individual stories and the larger trends they may or may not represent.

3:17 – Tom’s familiarity with Chinese literature and China

4:40 – Why Granta dedicated this issue to Chinese literature, how the issue came together, and how Granta found its translators 

10:54 – Balancing political considerations with artistic merits in curating this issue 

17:20 – The Chinese literary obsession with losers and the role of losers in Xiao Hai’s “Adrift in the South”

25:11 – The so-called Dongbei Renaissance, and Wu Qi’s interview and why he pushes back on the idea of the Dongbei Renaissance genre 

33:02 – Granta staff favorites 

35:18 – The phenomenon of gratuitous name-dropping and borrowing stylistically from other writers 

38:05 – The issue’s three photo essays by Feng Li, Li Jie and Zhan Jungang, and Haohui Liu 

44:36 – Yu Hua’s “Tomorrow I’ll Get Past It”

50:09 – Mo Yan’s “The Leftie Sickle” 

53:10 – Yan Lianke’s “Black Pig Hair, White Pig Hair” 

57:56 – The "filmability" of some of the short stories and the connection between the film world and literary writers in China 

1:00:08 – Where you can get Granta and pick up this issue

Recommendations:

Tom: The Egalitarian Moment: Asia and Africa, 1950-1980 by Anthony Low, a comparative history of land reform 

Kaiser: The ever-expanding library of guitarless backing tracks on YouTube to play along to

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This week on Sinica in a show taped live at China Crossroads, Shanghai's premier event series, I'm joined by my good friend Cameron Johnson, who is on the governing board of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, specializes professionally in supply chains in China, and teaches at NYU Shanghai.

4:20 – What makes up a supply chain ecosystem, and why it is difficult to build out 

8:39 – A brief history of decoupling, the warning signs, and whether it matters “who shot first” 

16:43 – Personal protective equipment (PPE) manufacturing in America, the lessons we (should have) learned, and Washington’s response

25:13 – EVs and batteries: manufacturing in America, and what it looks like on the ground in China 

30:46 – The semiconductor industry 

34:24 – “China Week” in Congress, and the different responses of GOP versus Democratic congressmen 

38:36 – De-risking as globalization 2.0

42:21 – Cameron’s predictions on the effects of the [upcoming] U.S. elections 

44:10 – Inside Chinese factories 

47:44 – American shortfalls in manufacturing 

50:21 – The importance of seeing China’s competitive markets and ecosystem clusters for oneself 

53:09 – Cameron’s advice for the next U.S. administration 

Recommendations: 

Cameron: Gōngyìng liàn gōngfáng zhàn 《供应链攻防战》 (Supply Chain Offensive and Defense War) by Lin Xueping; No Trade is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America’s Workers by Robert Lighthizer 

Kaiser: The Praise of Folly by Desiderius Erasmus 

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This week, in a show taped in Beijing at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, I speak with Professor Da Wei about a new public opinion poll on China's perception of international security and review its important findings. We also discuss Chinese views on the Russo-Ukrainian War and the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

2:11 – Da Wei’s new podcast 

4:05 – CISS’s “Public Opinion Poll: Chinese Outlook on International Security 2024”

7:46 – The poll’s findings on pessimism about global security and the global influence of the U.S. and China

11:56 – China’s growing national confidence and growing pessimism about the U.S.-China relationship 

18:26 – Paradoxical poll findings: proactive foreign policy stance vs. prioritizing domestic affairs, and involvement in global scientific cooperation vs. withdrawing in other areas of international agreement 

24:30 – Why older respondents tended to be more pessimistic about China’s international security situation 

25:58 – Understanding negative attitude toward the United States and the effectiveness of diplomacy 

30:17 – The belief that the U.S. goal is containment of China’s development and the shift in view of America from a values-based country to a power-based country 

36:12 – Chinese viewpoints on the Russo-Ukrainian war 

39:22 – Da Wei’s travels in the U.S. and the changes he has perceived 

45:04 – The U.S. agenda to dissuade China from deepening its involvement with Russia 

49:02 – How Chinese views on the upcoming U.S. election have changed since Kamala Harris’ nomination

Recommendations:

Da Wei: Chen Jian’s Zhou Enlai: A Life; for Chinese to travel to the U.S. more

Kaiser: Chen Jian and Odd Arne Westad’s The Great Transformation: China’s Road from Revolution to Reform; for Americans to travel to China (and Beijing) 

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This week on Sinica, in a show recorded in Beijing, I speak with Liu Yang and Jiang Jiang, the authors of two excellent newsletters — The Beijing Channel and Ginger River Review, respectively — and two of the guys behind the YouTube show "Got China." They're making a great effort to bridge Chinese journalism with Anglophone reporting on China with perspectives and insights from within the Chinese state media system.

4:24 – How Jiang Jiang and Liu Yang became journalists 

11:42 – How Liu Yang and Jiang Jiang decided to launch their newsletters, and the advantages of being tǐzhì nèi 体制内

20:29 – Jiang Jiang and Liu Yang’s Got China show 

25:46 – Liu Yang’s and Jiang Jiang’s empathy for American perspectives 

29:53 – The negative American discourse on the Chinese economy and “China collapse theory” 

37:21 The recent press conferences on monetary and policies, and the response in the realty market in Beijing 

46:17 What’s next for Got China 

Recommendations:

Liu Yang: Modern Chinese Government and Politics 《当代中国政府与政治?》, a Chinese-language textbook

Jiang Jiang: The Chinese podcast Bié de diànbō 别的电波; and Shan Weijian’s Out of the Gobi: My Story of China and America

Kaiser: The album The Last Will and Testament by Swedish metal band Opeth; and the Provincial Cuisine Club in Beijing, for trying food from different parts of China

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This week on Sinica, in a show recorded at Syracuse University on September 30, I chat with my old pal Bryce Whitwam about the remarkable rise of live-streaming e-commerce — and how it's already making its way to the U.S.

4:28 – Why Bryce chose to leave Shanghai and pursue a doctorate in the States

8:08 – How big livestream e-commerce has gotten and its predicted trajectory 

9:37 – E-commerce livestreaming and the pursuit of celebrity 

14:08 – The different types of livestream commerce

17:30 – Xiaohongshu 

20:45 – Why Taobao has lost its dominance 

22:07 – The value-add of an influencer’s pitch 

27:00 – The demographics of Chinese livestream e-commerce consumers 

29:09 – Insights from Bryce’s 25 interviews

36:36 – Buying food on livestream e-commerce and how agribusinesses are getting involved in the trend 

41:21 – Livestream commerce in the United States

44:34 – How livestream e-commerce has changed the retail experience in China 

46:43 – Potential future disruptions in the industry

Recommendations:

Bryce: Jeffree Star on TikTok as an American livestream commerce example and Omar Nok’s “Egypt to Japan Without Flying” TikTok stream 

Kaiser: The album True by Jon Anderson and The Band Geeks 

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This week, a show taped live at Syracuse University on September 30 with Associate Professor Dimitar Gueorguiev, author of the excellent Retrofitting Leninism: Participation Without Democracy in China. We discuss his book, his recent paper exploring hawkishness in Chinese public opinion, and his thoughts about the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

1:59 Syracuse University’s MAX 132 class ("the globalization class")

4:10 Dimitar’s background and how he became interested in China 

7:44 How the genre of authoritarian resilience took off 

14:26 China’s understanding of democracy (whole-process democracy)

17:40 Features of Leninism that have allowed the Chinese Communist Party to survive

21:21 Why China in the 1980s and '90s admired Singaporea's authoritarian PAP 

23:37 The idea of the mass line

27:16 China’s sentiment analysis through technology, and using bottom-up information as performance evaluation 

34:03 The COVID-19 pandemic and the confirmation bias of the regime-type explanation

37:37 The National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC)

40:14 Dimitar’s research on hawkishness in China: how he got the data, what drives Chinese hawkishness, and the national security vs. economic lens 

51:08 Why those who are dissatisfied with the government lean more hawkish and those who are satisfied with the government lean more dovish 

56:30 The upcoming U.S. election: how things may play out under the two different administrations, and understanding Chinese preferences 

Recommendations:

Dimitar: The TV series The Expanse (2015-2022)

Kaiser: Anthea Roberts’ Six Faces of Globalization: Who Wins, Who Loses, and Why It Matters; and the documentary Wise Guy: David Chase and The Sopranos (2024)

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This week on the Sinica Podcast, I chat with my dear friend David Moser, a longtime resident of Beijing, formerly an occasional co-host of Sinica and associate professor at Beijing Capital Normal University. We have a long history of exploring the underlying issues in our approach to China, and this week, we unpack some of those, focusing on the role of outsiders in Chinese society and their role in "changing China," drawing on David's response to an essay I recently published.

3:46 —David’s thoughts on Kaiser’s essay (“Priority Pluralism: Rethinking Universal Values in U.S.-China Relations”)

5:18 —How David thinks about going on state media and the reasons he does so

10:37 —How David’s engagement with state media has changed over time 

15:04 —Conscience, moral intuition, drawing lines, and whataboutism 

26:35 —The outsider urge to change China: the differences between the U.S. and Chinese governments and COVID as a test of the two systems; the role of American policy in working toward positive change and the importance of continuing engagement; and so-called Enlightenment values and priority pluralism 

50:46 —The debate over cultural differences

57:09 —China’s notion of whole-process democracy versus American democracy  

1:05:55 — “Give them time:” Anticipating when we will see big changes in China’s political culture 

Recommendations:

David: Richard Nisbett’s The Geography of Thought; and his own article, “A Fearful Asymmetry: COVID-19 and America’s Information Deficit with China”

Kaiser: The “Open Database for China Studies Resource Guide” published by ACLS 

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This week on Sinica, I chat with Jessica Chen Weiss, until recently at Cornell University but now the David M. Lampton Professor of China Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, SAIS, in Washington D.C. Jessica, to those of you familiar with her work, has been at the forefront of the fight for a less strident, diplomacy-first approach to China, balancing threats with assurances to find a modus vivendi with China. She has challenged prevailing notions about China's intentions, and has called for the U.S. to advance an affirmative vision of how it wants to live in the world with China. We focus in this conversation about a recent piece in Foreign Affairs in which she challenges both the solidity and the logic of the "bipartisan consensus" on China, and holds out hope that a next administration might approach the relationship differently.

3:45 – How Jessica has settled into D.C.; her professorial namesake; and how she has become a leading voice for a less confrontational approach to China

9:30 – Where Jessica sees diverging views on China in the Republican and Democratic Parties 

12:41 – What a more durable basis for coexistence should look like

14:46 – Credible deterrence and strategic ambiguity in the context of Taiwan 

16:03 – Acknowledgements to limits on American power and the importance of being realistic 

18:09 – Assurances on Taiwan and what threatens their credibility 

21:13 – The question of engagement and the deterrent effect of economic integration

25:30 – How the U.S. can combat legitimate national security threats from China without undermining its own values, and the importance of not treating the Chinese in diaspora as a fifth column 

31:31 – Electoral politics: the importance of welcoming and inclusive policies and creating space for debate and discernment

35:07 – The importance of testing our assumptions 

38:30 – What another Trump presidency might look like 

40:30 – How a Harris administration might differ from the Biden administration

44:13 – The U.S. and China-Russia relations

Recommendations:

Jessica: Valarie Kaur’s Sage Warrior: Wake to Oneness, Practice Pleasure, Choose Courage, Become Victory 

Kaiser: BeaGo, an AI-powered search tool (download from your app store!)

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This week I continue my conversations with some of the outstanding Schwarzman Scholars who presented at the Capstone Showcase in late June. In this episode, I speak with Nainika Sudheendra about the problem of space debris and what can be done to reduce the creation of more of it or even begin removal of debris before it makes the launching of new satellites more costly or even impossible.

2:34 Nainika’s background and interest in the Schwarzman program

5:33 Why Nainika focused on space debris 

7:23 Nainika’s prior knowledge about the Chinese space program and what she learned through the Schwarzman program

10:30 How space debris is measured, the Kessler syndrome, and the hazards that space debris poses 

14:33 The obstacles Nainika encountered in her research 

16:35 How political leaders in China and the U.S. are thinking about the space debris problem

20:02 How debris mitigation might [ought to?] be incentivized, who is working on the problem now, and the role of private insurers 

24:03 The Wolf Amendment and Chinese private sector space companies 

27:22 Technologies for mitigating and remediating debris 

31:00 Lessons from another tragedy of the commons (the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer), and how the EU could take a leading role 

34:59 The importance of data standardization and opportunities to negotiate fair use and safety precautions

38:17  How redundancy prevents public perception — the difficulty in going from “outage” to “outrage” 

40:27 What Nainika has been doing since finishing at Schwarzman 

Recommendations:

Nainika: From Streets to Stalls: The History and Evolution of Hawking and Hawker Centres in Singapore by Ryan Kueh (another Schwarzman alum) 

Kaiser: Journalist Andrew Jones on Twitter; the South Indian restaurant Viks Chaat in Berkeley, California 

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I thought Sinica listeners might be interested in listening to an audio narration of my latest essay. I hope you enjoy and that it gives you some food for thought! If you prefer to read, you can find the essay — free for everyone this week — right here.

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