I know I'd said last time there would be no show this week, but that was before this fascinating episode involving TikTok users signing up en masse to Xiaohongshu. Hilarity ensued, and my two guests — Ivy Yang, who runs Wavelet Strategy, an expert in cross-cultural communication, and David Fishman, Shanghai-based senior manager at Lantau Group who specializes in the Chinese energy sector and writes wonderfully about his excursions into the Chinese countryside. They've both been following this fascinating episode closely and have really smart things to say, so enjoy!

5:10 – How the migration of American Tiktokers to Xiaohongshu started 

8:51 – A brief overview of Xiaohongshu: its users, typical content, and culture, including its “we’re all in this together” vibe  

15:35 – The significance of Xiaohongshu as a Chinese app 

19:48 – The scale of the American TikTok refugees phenomenon, and official reactions in the U.S.

24:52 – How Xiaohongshu has managed and reacted to the refugee phenomenon so far, and the PR opportunity presented for the PRC

29:33 – The Chinese government’s perspective 

34:54 – Wholesome and interesting exchanges, and what American and Chinese users are finding surprising or amusing about each other’s cultures

38:50 – Why this new online encounter between Chinese and Americans is different from before 

43:23 – The danger of irrational exuberance, and other risks the Xiaohongshu migration phenomenon presents 

47:52 – The potential for a change in American thinking about China 

Paying It Forward: 

Ivy: Caiwei Chen

David: Robert Wu and Amber Zhang, especially their work on Baiguan, and Robert’s Substack China Translated, especially his essay, “The Great Divorce”

Recommendations:

Ivy: Dopamine Nation: Finding Balance in the Age of Indulgence by Dr. Anna Lembke 

David: Oracle Bones: A Journey Through Time in China by Peter Hessler

Kaiser: Other works by Peter Hessler (River Town: Two Years on the Yangtze; Country Driving: A Chinese Road Trip; and Other Rivers: A Chinese Education), and Telecaster type electric guitars, especially the Sire Larry Carlton T7

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This week on Sinica, I'm joined by Lizzi Lee, fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute and by my lights one of the most astute, well-informed people writing on China in the English-speaking world today. She has fascinating perspectives on China's preparations for the Trump administration, on China's reluctance to roll out large-scale cash stimulus, and Xi Jinping's challenges. Don't miss this one! (I will update the show notes and publish the transcript early next week — thanks for your patience!)

3:39 – Lizzi’s argument from her op-ed, “Counting the Hawks in the Trump 2.0 Administration is Pointless”: the importance of which country will be able to get its act together 

10:25 – U.S.-China competition as a long game, from China’s perspective

14:22 – How China views the current state of division in American politics

19:00 – The main risks and opportunities for China presented by Trump’s return, including opportunities in the geopolitical realm with the Europeans 

28:09 – The state of China’s domestic economy

33:28 – Counterarguments to critiques of China’s cautious deployment of stimulus, and where Lizzi stands on the issue 

43:46 – Lizzi’s thoughts on deflation in the Chinese economy 

49:30 – The idea of accepting short-term pain for long-term gain in economic recovery 

53:59 – Xi Jinping’s vision for China’s economy 

58:46 – How Xi Jinping’s ideological language can be challenging for officials and markets 

1:03:57 – How China’s political calendar has hindered execution of policy 

1:06:42 – What Lizzi thinks the Chinese leadership should prioritize now

Paying it Forward: Lizzi recommends the work of Barclay Bram, especially his series on Chinese youth at the Asia Society here.

Recommendations:

Lizzi: Grazia Ting Deng’s book Chinese Espresso: Contested Race and Convivial Space in Contemporary Italy

Kaiser: More historical fiction by Robert Harris, including An Officer and a Spy and Munich.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I speak with Nicole Hong and Michael Rothfeld, both investigative reporters at the New York Times, about a series of stories they've done, stretching between August and December 2024, on the Falun Gong-run performance troupe Shen Yun, and the Falun Gong-affiliated newspaper The Epoch Times. Read the latest two articles in that series here and here. There will be links to the other stories on the transcript page.

4:33 – Nicole and Michael's collection of pieces on Falun Gong 

6:26 – Background on [the?] Falun Gong: Li Hongzhi, the context out of which the movement emerged, its international spread, and the CCP’s crackdown in the '90s

12:00 – Shen Yun performances, and audience reactions 

18:46 – Following the money: Falun Gong’s dramatic financial growth, gray areas, and where the money goes 

29:03 – Spiritual project or big grift?

31:39 – What Nicole and Michael uncovered 

36:23 – Memorable individuals: Chang Chun-ko, Kate the performer, and Josh the violinist

41:10 – The dynamics within [the?] Falun Gong, and what has been alleged

45:34 – The Epoch Times, and their editorial changes 

53:02 – The appeal of Falun Gong, and the level of scrutiny it gets

Paying It Forward:

Nicole: Researchers/freelancers/translators Yi Liu and Peiyue Wu 

Michael: New York Times colleague Susan Beachy 

Recommendations:

Nicole: Connie: A Memoir by Connie Chung 

Michael: Like Water for Chocolate by Laura Esquivel; One Hundred Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez (and the new One Hundred Years of Solitude TV series (2024)); and the TV series Gomorrah (2014-2021)

Kaiser: TikTok accounts workplace_doodles (a former Shen Yun performer born into a Falun Gong family) and cocolarkincooks (a fantastic cooking resource)

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I welcome back Michael Cerny — formerly of the Carter Center and now a Ph.D. student at Harvard — and Rory Truex of Princeton University to discuss a new working paper they've co-authored. They undertook a large-scale survey of foreign policy professionals at U.S. think tanks to ascertain whether there is a "consensus" on China policy, as is often claimed, and whether people working in think tanks feel pressure to take on more "hawkish" positions on China policy. We also introduce a new segment called "Paying it Forward."

5:04 – What motivated Michael and Rory to write their paper together 

7:30 – Groupthink vs. consensus

10:08 – The methodology: combining surveys and interviews, and the sampling frame 

14:35 – Trying to avoid leading questions 

17:58 – Creating the “China Confrontation Index” 

20:25 – Different levels of acceptance of the labels “hawk” and “dove” 

23:33 – The issue of preference falsification 

25:43 – Mechanisms behind disparities in perceived pressure 

29:01 – Tying in Rory’s previous research on self-censorship 

32:42 – How Michael and Rory decided on interviews 

34:10 – What Michael believes were the most important and robust findings

36:09 – The distinction between the beliefs of think tankers vs. elected officials, and why people tend to believe there is a bipartisan consensus on China 

40:34 – Pressure on hawks 

42:35 – Specific policy questions

44:18 – Feedback on the paper so far, and what Michael and Rory may tweak in a subsequent draft 

49:47 – The possible role of personality in hawkishness or dovishness 

51:58 – Discussing Mike Mazarr’s concerns about the potential parallels between current Chinese discourse and the lead-up to the Iraq War 

55:06 – Advice to younger professionals entering the foreign policy/China field 

New segment: Paying It Forward:

Rory: Michael Cerny and Edi Obiakpani-Reid 

Recommendations:

Rory: Edi Obiakpani-Reid’s Sinobabble podcast about Chinese history

Michael: Jeffrey Ding’s Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition

Kaiser: Imperium by Robert Harris 

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica I'm delighted to be joined by Amy King, Associate Professor in the Strategic & Defence Studies Centre at The Australian National University. She shares her ideas about how perceptions of insecurity can paradoxically motivate closer economic relations between two states, and she looks at not only the examples of China and Japan after the end of World War II, but Australia and China as well. We also discuss Sino-Australian relations over the last 15 years, and much else!

2:48 – Key phases of Australia-China relations over the past 15 years and the security and economic nexus 

9:05 – Amy’s research into the Sino-Japanese relationship and how perceptions of insecurity can motivate closer economic ties, and how Australia is responding to China now 

21:22 – How Amy would argue the case for economic engagement with China to folks in Washington 

26:31 – Securitization in Australia and the important differences between Australia and the U.S. 

30:20 – The shift in the Australia-China relationship under the Albanese government 

33:12 – What the U.S. can learn from Australia 

35:14 – Why people tend to conflate Australia’s experience with America’s 

39:04 – Amy’s essay, “The Collective Logic of Chinese Hegemonic Order,” and how we can understand China’s role in the emerging post-unipolar world

42:47 – Three mechanisms employed by China to amplify its voice post-war  (amplifying, grafting, and resistance by appropriation) and how modern “middle powers” can influence the international order now 

52:31 – The state of discourse on China in Australia and what Amy believes China wants 

58:54 – Amy’s thoughts on pluralism and international order 

1:03:22 – What lessons about de-risking and navigating multi-alignment Australia should be learning from other nations in the region 

Recommendations:

Amy: Fintan O’Toole’s We Don’t Know Ourselves: A Personal History of Modern Ireland 

Kaiser: The Paul Reed Smith (PRS) SE Hollowbody II Piezo electric guitar

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China's rapid surge in electric vehicle manufacturing, adoption, and export has variously encouraged, delighted, impressed, frightened, and even enraged people around the world. What did China get right in facilitating the explosive development in this industry? Was is just subsidies, or were there other important policies that helped jumpstart it? How have other geographies responded? And what can they learn? Ilaria Mazzocco,  deputy director and senior fellow with the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) joins me to share her rich insights into the Chinese EV industry.

3:49 – How Ilaria became interested in green industrial policy

5:59 – The reality of progress in EVs in China 

11:21 – The role of state subsidies and other things that tend to get missed in trying to understand EVs in China 

16:51 – How other countries are trying to adopt China’s approach 

19:21 – The differences between the EU and U.S. approaches 

24:17 – The outlook for competition in the Chinese market 

26:08 – Business models in the Chinese EV sector and the example of BYD

30:53 – Chinese firms’ push for internationalization and how the rapidity of becoming multinationals [multinational companies?] may pose challenges 

35:54 – Alignment between host countries and Chinese companies 

39:58 – What the U.S. is doing and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)

42:27 – How U.S. protectionist measures may affect third markets, and whether restrictions may backfire  

48:57 – The coming shift to next-generation batteries, and the potential for international collaboration in advancing more circular practices 

55:43 – How Ilaria’s fieldwork shifted her perspective on the EV industry 

59:38 – How we can improve industrial policy 

Recommendations:

Ilaria: My Antonia by Willa Cather; the Wolf Hall trilogy by Hilary Mantel; The Army of Sleepwalkers by Wu Ming (an Italian novelist collective) about the French Revolution 

Kaiser: The Wolf Hall audiobooks read by Ben Miles; the HBO series Rome (2005-2007) 

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I chat with Jane Hayward, lecturer at King's College London, about her excellent YouTube channel, Jane Hayward China, and her efforts to bring up-to-date scholarship on modern and contemporary China to audiences through internet video, slaying various bugbears along the way.

3:28 Why Jane started her YouTube channel, her intended versus actual audiences, and navigating the current toxic media environment 

10:56 The benefits of an area studies approach, and why Jane chose a U.S. PhD program

14:46 Defining the complicated public discourse in the West 

19:35 Jane’s videos: the surprising popularity of “Xi Jinping is NOT like an Emperor;” and more controversial videos

26:28 New Qing History and different critiques of it

34:50 Jane's series on types of communism, and her video on reporting on China in British media 

42:31 What may be coming next on Jane’s channel 

Recommendations

Jane: David Priestland’s The Red Flag: A History of Communism

Kaiser: The YouTube channel Chinese Cooking Demystified, and specifically their video “63 Chinese Cuisines: the Complete Guide” 

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I chat with Michael Swaine, Senior Research Fellow at the Quincy Institute for the last couple of years, prior to which he spent nearly two decades as a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he led extensive work on Chinese defense and foreign policy, U.S.-China relations, and East Asian international relations more broadly. He was also a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, where he developed a reputation for rigorous research on Asian security and crisis management. We focus on his recent report, “Avoiding the Abyss: An Urgent Need for Sino-U.S. Crisis Management,” which offers both a framework for understanding the forces driving U.S.-China crises and a roadmap to prevent or manage these crises effectively. He drew on his many decades of experience working on the security dimension of the bilateral relationship, including his participation in many Track II dialogues and simulations of crisis scenarios over the years.

4:51 – Defining "crisis" and "crisis prevention" 

10:13 – The possibility of a crisis in the South China Sea

12:31 – Lessons from past crises  

20:08 – The problematic moralistic stances and tit-for-tat escalation produced by yǒulǐ, yǒulì, yǒu jié 有理, 有利, 有节

27:37 – U.S. concern over the credibility of its alliance commitments 

34:50 – The problem of perception 

38:16 – Examples of how each side is sometimes unable to see how its own actions are perceived by the other 

41:20 – The dangers of failing to understand and making assumptions about the China’s historical memory 

45:42 – Problems of signaling and how best to solve them 

51:17 – Mike’s suggestions for a crisis toolkit and his proposal of a civilian-led two-tier dialogue structure 

58:41 – Track II dialogues 

1:02:47 – The importance of educating leaders up and down the system on crisis management 

1:06:08 – The structural issues of the decision-making systems in China and the U.S.

Recommendations:

Michael: Art critic Brian Sewell’s The Reviews That Caused the Rumpus; Robert Suettinger’s The Conscience of the Party: Hu Yaobang, China’s Communist Reformer  

Kaiser: The Great Transformation: China’s Road from Revolution to Reform by Odd Arne Westad and Chen Jian 

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The British literary quarterly Granta has published a new issue dedicated to Chinese writers, featuring familiar mainstays of contemporary literature and some fresh new voices. This week on Sinica, I chatted with Thomas Meaney, editor of Granta, about what's happening in the literary scene in China today and how this fantastically interesting issue came together. Tom is wonderfully thoughtful and articulate, and we really get into some of the individual stories and the larger trends they may or may not represent.

3:17 – Tom’s familiarity with Chinese literature and China

4:40 – Why Granta dedicated this issue to Chinese literature, how the issue came together, and how Granta found its translators 

10:54 – Balancing political considerations with artistic merits in curating this issue 

17:20 – The Chinese literary obsession with losers and the role of losers in Xiao Hai’s “Adrift in the South”

25:11 – The so-called Dongbei Renaissance, and Wu Qi’s interview and why he pushes back on the idea of the Dongbei Renaissance genre 

33:02 – Granta staff favorites 

35:18 – The phenomenon of gratuitous name-dropping and borrowing stylistically from other writers 

38:05 – The issue’s three photo essays by Feng Li, Li Jie and Zhan Jungang, and Haohui Liu 

44:36 – Yu Hua’s “Tomorrow I’ll Get Past It”

50:09 – Mo Yan’s “The Leftie Sickle” 

53:10 – Yan Lianke’s “Black Pig Hair, White Pig Hair” 

57:56 – The "filmability" of some of the short stories and the connection between the film world and literary writers in China 

1:00:08 – Where you can get Granta and pick up this issue

Recommendations:

Tom: The Egalitarian Moment: Asia and Africa, 1950-1980 by Anthony Low, a comparative history of land reform 

Kaiser: The ever-expanding library of guitarless backing tracks on YouTube to play along to

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica in a show taped live at China Crossroads, Shanghai's premier event series, I'm joined by my good friend Cameron Johnson, who is on the governing board of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, specializes professionally in supply chains in China, and teaches at NYU Shanghai.

4:20 – What makes up a supply chain ecosystem, and why it is difficult to build out 

8:39 – A brief history of decoupling, the warning signs, and whether it matters “who shot first” 

16:43 – Personal protective equipment (PPE) manufacturing in America, the lessons we (should have) learned, and Washington’s response

25:13 – EVs and batteries: manufacturing in America, and what it looks like on the ground in China 

30:46 – The semiconductor industry 

34:24 – “China Week” in Congress, and the different responses of GOP versus Democratic congressmen 

38:36 – De-risking as globalization 2.0

42:21 – Cameron’s predictions on the effects of the [upcoming] U.S. elections 

44:10 – Inside Chinese factories 

47:44 – American shortfalls in manufacturing 

50:21 – The importance of seeing China’s competitive markets and ecosystem clusters for oneself 

53:09 – Cameron’s advice for the next U.S. administration 

Recommendations: 

Cameron: Gōngyìng liàn gōngfáng zhàn 《供应链攻防战》 (Supply Chain Offensive and Defense War) by Lin Xueping; No Trade is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America’s Workers by Robert Lighthizer 

Kaiser: The Praise of Folly by Desiderius Erasmus 

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week, in a show taped in Beijing at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, I speak with Professor Da Wei about a new public opinion poll on China's perception of international security and review its important findings. We also discuss Chinese views on the Russo-Ukrainian War and the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

2:11 – Da Wei’s new podcast 

4:05 – CISS’s “Public Opinion Poll: Chinese Outlook on International Security 2024”

7:46 – The poll’s findings on pessimism about global security and the global influence of the U.S. and China

11:56 – China’s growing national confidence and growing pessimism about the U.S.-China relationship 

18:26 – Paradoxical poll findings: proactive foreign policy stance vs. prioritizing domestic affairs, and involvement in global scientific cooperation vs. withdrawing in other areas of international agreement 

24:30 – Why older respondents tended to be more pessimistic about China’s international security situation 

25:58 – Understanding negative attitude toward the United States and the effectiveness of diplomacy 

30:17 – The belief that the U.S. goal is containment of China’s development and the shift in view of America from a values-based country to a power-based country 

36:12 – Chinese viewpoints on the Russo-Ukrainian war 

39:22 – Da Wei’s travels in the U.S. and the changes he has perceived 

45:04 – The U.S. agenda to dissuade China from deepening its involvement with Russia 

49:02 – How Chinese views on the upcoming U.S. election have changed since Kamala Harris’ nomination

Recommendations:

Da Wei: Chen Jian’s Zhou Enlai: A Life; for Chinese to travel to the U.S. more

Kaiser: Chen Jian and Odd Arne Westad’s The Great Transformation: China’s Road from Revolution to Reform; for Americans to travel to China (and Beijing) 

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