11.18.24 The Inflation "Sleigh Ride"

-----------------

Just hear those sleigh bells jingle-ing, ten years cratering, too, Come on, it's lame-duck weather for a slow ride to low rates with you.

When the final advent candle is lit, will rates rise or slide fifty basis points? The answer should come this week. The bearish trend, uncertainty over the fiscal sanity of the Advanced Economies, and the significant political obstacles for Trump’s administration to deliver lower inflation within a year support 5% when sleigh bells ring.

The bulls need mistletoe to find a prince among the frogs of declining Oil, wakening Europe, and a lame-duck Yellen Biden on defense without a snow machine.

Sleigh Ride with you.

---------------------

Song: Sleigh Ride (1949) Lyrics paired with it in 1950.

Jack Jones

This week's report analyzes the ongoing rise in treasury yields and mortgage rates, highlights key economic data impacts, and examines the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to potential rate cuts amid evolving economic conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------

Matt began as an originator in 2002. He fell in love with the idea of following MBS in real-time but felt that existing products were only scratching the surface. Thus was born MBS Live in 2007, the first-of-its-kind platform with real-time market data/analysis, and live chat with analysts, traders, and originators around the country. He is currently the Founder and CEO of MBSLive!

He's been covering bond/mortgage markets, writing commentary, alerts, and chatting with the live community every business hour of every business day ever since.

Matt also serves as the Chief of Operations for mortgagenewsdaily.com, where he is one of the industry's most respected mortgage rate experts, frequently quoted in the media. Mortgage News Daily's rate index is used as the definitive resource on day-to-day mortgage rate averages.

He lives in the Pacific Northwest with his wife and son where he enjoys skiing, fishing, coaching youth sports, playing the guitar, and more DIY projects/hobbies than he'd care to admit.

This segment explores the transformative impact of digital-first strategies, AI-driven tools, and customer engagement innovations on the mortgage industry, emphasizing the importance of staying ahead in a rapidly evolving landscape.

-----------------------------------------------------

Allen Pollack, Tech Consultant

Allen Pollack, a Mortgage & Financial Services Technology Advisor, is a subject matter expert in the mortgage origination process along with software product management and software development.

In today’s financial services push to all things Digital, Allen has been helping lenders and financial services solution providers align their digital transformation and technology strategies by removing the human element of risk, and automating processes that drive efficiencies and margins into profits.

Over the course of his career, Allen has co-created and developed technology business models that have birthed highly successful, innovative solutions and companies.

Allen co-founded and served as CTO of New York Loan Exchange (NYLX), a loan product eligibility and pricing engine (PPE) that made an immediate impact on the industry, scaling the company quickly and forming partnerships with multiple mortgage and financial lending companies. In 2012, Allen was a co-founder of a merger between NYLX and Aklero Risk Analytics that created LoanLogics, A Mortgage Loan Quality and Performance Analytics company. Allen served as CTO where he continued to bring new and innovative product solutions to the market that made a significant impact to mortgage lenders that reduced risk, scaled business channels, and grew profits in a very competitive and highly regulated market.

Allen is also is mortgage and finance technology contributor on a weekly live industry podcast, Lykken on Lending, and is launching a new podcast soon to be released, TechStack Radio, dedicated to technology and innovation in Financial Services.

This segment explores the FHA's actuarial report, its implications for MIP premiums, and how evolving market dynamics are impacting borrowers and lenders in the mortgage industry.

----------------------------------------------------

Alice Alvey, Master CMB

Vice President Partner Education and Training at Union Home Mortgage

She handles development of their World Class Training program designed to support UHM partners and organizational effectiveness.

Prior to UHM, Alice served as Senior Vice President at Indecomm leading the Indecomm-Mortgage U division, Internal QA and Compliance and SaaS technologies. Indecomm acquired Mortgage U in 2013, where Alice was President/Co-founder, providing training and consulting since 1996. Prior to MU she served as SVP of Operations at a national bank overseeing operations for wholesale, retail and correspondent from underwriting through servicing, and compliance.

She has been in the trenches of mortgage lending operations from application through servicing for over 30 years. Her authoring work in training content, policies and procedures and the FHA/VA Practical guides illustrates her ability to bridge regulatory requirements with day-to-day operations.

Alice has been a weekly contributor to the Lykken on Lending show since its beginning in April 2009 and has made her weekly contributions to 450+ episodes!

The Lykken on Lending program will feature our Weekly Mortgage Updates with Adam DeSanctis and his MBA Mortgage Minute, and then Les Parker’s TMSpotlight, a macroeconomic perspective on the economy with a music parody. That leads to Matt Graham of MBS Live providing you a rate & market update, followed by David Kittle, Chief Executive Officer @ Cypress Mortgage Capital, to discuss mortgage originations. Then we have Alice Alvey of Union Home providing a regulatory & legislative update, then Allen Pollack giving us a Tech Report on the latest technology impacting our industry. We also have commentaries provided by our Consultants, Bill Corbet and Marc Helm, Senior Executive Partner @ Transformational Mortgage Solutions, talking about Loan Servicing and the “Agencies”.

This segment explores opportunities for veterans in tech, highlights advancements like telehealth and mortgage automation, and discusses industry updates including funding rounds, integrations, and solutions for uncollected appraisal fees.

-----------------------------------------------------

Allen Pollack, Tech Consultant

Allen Pollack, a Mortgage & Financial Services Technology Advisor, is a subject matter expert in the mortgage origination process along with software product management and software development.

In today’s financial services push to all things Digital, Allen has been helping lenders and financial services solution providers align their digital transformation and technology strategies by removing the human element of risk, and automating processes that drive efficiencies and margins into profits.

Over the course of his career, Allen has co-created and developed technology business models that have birthed highly successful, innovative solutions and companies.

Allen co-founded and served as CTO of New York Loan Exchange (NYLX), a loan product eligibility and pricing engine (PPE) that made an immediate impact on the industry, scaling the company quickly and forming partnerships with multiple mortgage and financial lending companies. In 2012, Allen was a co-founder of a merger between NYLX and Aklero Risk Analytics that created LoanLogics, A Mortgage Loan Quality and Performance Analytics company. Allen served as CTO where he continued to bring new and innovative product solutions to the market that made a significant impact to mortgage lenders that reduced risk, scaled business channels, and grew profits in a very competitive and highly regulated market.

Allen is also is mortgage and finance technology contributor on a weekly live industry podcast, Lykken on Lending, and is launching a new podcast soon to be released, TechStack Radio, dedicated to technology and innovation in Financial Services.

The FHFA has proposed a new rule to enhance governance within Federal Home Loan Banks by modernizing board requirements, clarifying expertise standards, and implementing conflict of interest policies, with a public comment period open until February 3rd.

----------------------------------------------------

Alice Alvey, Master CMB

Vice President Partner Education and Training at Union Home Mortgage

She handles development of their World Class Training program designed to support UHM partners and organizational effectiveness.

Prior to UHM, Alice served as Senior Vice President at Indecomm leading the Indecomm-Mortgage U division, Internal QA and Compliance and SaaS technologies. Indecomm acquired Mortgage U in 2013, where Alice was President/Co-founder, providing training and consulting since 1996. Prior to MU she served as SVP of Operations at a national bank overseeing operations for wholesale, retail and correspondent from underwriting through servicing, and compliance.

She has been in the trenches of mortgage lending operations from application through servicing for over 30 years. Her authoring work in training content, policies and procedures and the FHA/VA Practical guides illustrates her ability to bridge regulatory requirements with day-to-day operations.

Alice has been a weekly contributor to the Lykken on Lending show since its beginning in April 2009 and has made her weekly contributions to 450+ episodes!

11-11-2024 For Rates "A Change Would Do You Good"

-------------------

With the Republican mandate, expect rates to favor their fiscal agenda. Neo-Keynesian analysts modeled higher deficits. So, rates increased as Trump’s election odds increased.

Yet, the models have always been wrong about deficits because they miss growth and are baffled by cutting bureaucracy.

Last week, the 10-year yield tested 4.50. The next test is 4.18. The Bulls can reign again, fueled by lower Oil prices.

Oil thinks a change. (A Change Would Do You Good)

The Dollars rise. (A Change Would Do You Good)

-------------------

Song: A Change Would Do You Good (1996)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ikjmz_SlGhg

Following the 2024 election, Donald Trump's return to the presidency, along with anticipated Republican Senate control, signals potential shifts in mortgage policy, GSE reform, and regulatory leadership, with the Mortgage Bankers Association planning further analysis on implications for the industry.

-------------------------------------------------------------

Adam DeSanctis, Director of Public Affairs at Mortgage Bankers Association

As a strategic public affairs and communications executive with nearly two decades of experience, Adam has deep expertise in strategy, management, and media relations. He is widely considered to be an expert in a variety of communications, including advocacy, brand, executive, crisis, grassroots, and social media. In his career, he has been the MBA spokesperson on a wide variety of real estate research and advocacy-related issues, promoted MBA research and advocacy efforts to financial, political, and trade industry media and on MBA's social media channels, and secured media opportunities for MBA leadership on key real estate trends and issues, generated media coverage for MBA's research and data on mortgage applications, credit availability, homebuilder applications, mortgage forbearance/delinquencies, commercial real estate originations, and forecasts, and other industry analysis, developed key strategic initiatives for MBA's organizational public affairs plan, media relations and member communications support for mPower, MBA's Opens Doors Foundation and MBA's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs.

The Lykken on Lending program will feature our Weekly Mortgage Updates with Adam DeSanctis and his MBA Mortgage Minute, and then Les Parker’s TMSpotlight, a macroeconomic perspective on the economy with a music parody. That leads to Matt Graham of MBS Live providing you a rate & market update, followed by David Kittle, Chief Executive Officer @ Cypress Mortgage Capital, to discuss mortgage originations. Then we have Alice Alvey of Union Home providing a regulatory & legislative update, then Allen Pollack giving us a Tech Report on the latest technology impacting our industry. We also have commentaries provided by our Consultants, Bill Corbet and Marc Helm, Senior Executive Partner @ Transformational Mortgage Solutions, talking about Loan Servicing and the “Agencies”.

In this episode, we dive into the transformative power of artificial intelligence in the mortgage industry with Pavan, the visionary behind Angel AI and Angel Twin technology. Broadcasting from San Juan, Puerto Rico, Pavan shares the excitement of the upcoming Diwali Avatar Party and unveils groundbreaking advancements that allow mortgage professionals to create personalized AI "twins." These AI-driven avatars, powered by blockchain technology, promise to revolutionize the way realtors, loan officers, and consumers interact by securely storing and leveraging personal data, effectively giving individuals control over their digital identities. Joined by Jennifer, SunWest Mortgage brings over 45 years of lending expertise, the discussion touches on how this technology can address industry challenges, enhance consumer experiences, and empower mortgage professionals with superhuman capabilities. This episode is a glimpse into a future where AI and secure data ownership reshape the mortgage landscape.