In Episode 112 of Bionic Planet, titled "Fantasy Football and Dynamic Baselines: New Tools for Impact Assessment," we unpack the often misunderstood concept of dynamic baselines and its origin in synthetic controls, using fantasy football as an analogy.

The episode begins with a clear and relatively simple explanation of dynamic baselines, which have emerged as a valuable tool in climate finance. Unlike traditional static baselines, which rely on fixed reference points, dynamic baselines adapt to changing conditions and provide a more accurate measure of impact. We discuss the importance of data and the need for robust methodologies to ensure that we can effectively attribute changes in deforestation and other environmental metrics to specific interventions.

Our guests for this episode are Lynn Riley from the American Forest Foundation and David Schoch from TerraCarbon, both of whom have played pivotal roles in advancing the application of synthetic controls in carbon markets. They share insights from their work on the Family Forest Carbon Program, which aims to engage small family landowners in sustainable forest management practices. Through their collaboration, they have developed methodologies that not only improve the accuracy of carbon accounting but also empower landowners to adapt their practices based on real-time feedback.

Throughout the episode, we examine the challenges of establishing effective baselines in diverse contexts, particularly in the United States. We highlight the significance of the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, which provides a rich source of information for modeling deforestation risk and assessing the impact of various interventions. The conversation also touches on the importance of addressing confounding variables and ensuring that methodologies are applicable across different forest types and ownership structures.

As we wrap up, we reflect on the broader implications of dynamic baselines for climate finance and the potential for these innovative approaches to drive meaningful change in forest management. By fostering a more responsive and data-driven framework, we can better understand the impacts of our actions and work towards a more sustainable future.

Join us for this engaging episode as we bridge the worlds of sports and environmental science, uncovering the lessons that can be learned from both fields in our quest to navigate the Anthropocene.

00:00:00 - Introduction to Bionic Planet and Episode Overview 00:01:03 - Justin Fields and the NFL Draft Dynamics 00:02:14 - Caleb Williams vs. Justin Fields: A Season Comparison 00:04:27 - Troy Aikman on Rookie Quarterback Struggles 00:05:53 - Sam Darnold's Journey Through the NFL 00:06:58 - Kurt Warner's Unlikely Rise to Success 00:07:48 - Connecting Sports Performance to Climate Impact Assessment 00:08:31 - Challenges in Measuring Success in Climate Finance 00:09:12 - Dynamic Baselines vs. Traditional Baselines 00:10:32 - Introduction of Guests: Lynn Riley and David Schoch 00:11:18 - Overview of the Family Forest Carbon Program 00:11:59 - The Green Municipalities Program in Brazil 00:12:53 - Evaluating the Impact of the Green Municipalities Program 00:13:58 - Synthetic Control Method Explained 00:15:30 - Causal Inference and Its Importance 00:16:52 - Fantasy Football as an Analogy for Synthetic Controls 00:19:00 - Comparison of Real and Synthetic Outcomes 00:20:58 - The Role of Data in Impact Assessment 00:21:31 - Discussion on the Synthetic Control Method Paper 00:22:30 - David Schoch's Contributions to the Research 00:25:05 - Weighting in Synthetic Control Methodology 00:26:32 - Eliminating Uncertainty in Climate Finance 00:28:13 - Linking Methodologies to Improved Forest Management 00:30:59 - Data Sufficiency and Methodology Applicability 00:31:39 - Engaging Small Landowners in Carbon Markets 00:33:43 - The Role of the U.S. Forest Service Data 00:35:41 - Public Consultation and Methodology Development 00:36:09 - Interventions for Improved Forest Management 00:38:36 - Risk Sharing in Carbon Credit Projects 00:40:56 - The Importance of Monitoring and Feedback 00:42:05 - Evolution of the Family Forest Carbon Program 00:50:07 - Challenges in Data Collection and Stakeholder Engagement

1. "Bionic Planet is the longest-running program in any medium devoted to navigating the Anthropocene, the new epoch defined by man's impact on Earth." - 00:00:10

2. "Football fans, like all sports fans, love arguing about who is better and who's just lucky." - 00:01:25

3. "Different people, different circumstances. And how do you tell who's better?" - 00:06:04

4. "We can restore it. Make it better, greener, more resilient, more sustainable. But how?" - 00:08:09

5. "Dynamic baselines adapt to shifting conditions and update more frequently." - 00:09:34

6. "The fundamental concept of synthetic controls is something we all use every day." - 00:16:52

7. "To see if an intervention works, you can synthetically model a control unit or an imaginary city where the variables are similar." - 00:16:09

8. "The ultimate goal in both cases is comparison." - 00:19:00

9. "It's not that the introduction of these methods eliminates uncertainty, but it did eliminate an important source of uncertainty and confounding." - 00:26:42

10. "There's always going to be a gap between a scenario that you model and what happens in real life, because no models are perfect." - 00:46:45

Support Bionic Planet: https://www.patreon.com/bionicplanet 

Recent updates from the Science-Based Targets initiative (SBTi) have pushed an old debate into public awareness, highlighting a perceived divide between emissions reductions and carbon removals. While SBTi's new guidelines focus on cutting emissions directly within company operations, some argue this creates a false dichotomy, downplaying the essential role of carbon removals in achieving net-zero goals. In reality, both strategies—reductions and removals—are not opposing forces but complementary tools needed to combat climate change effectively.

In Episode 69 of Bionic Planet, I spoke with Eli Mitchell-Larsen, a self-described "carbon removal evangelist," who provides valuable insights into the various types of carbon removal methods, including nature-based, hybrid, and engineered solutions. I'm rerunning this episode here today as episode 111.

The discussion begins with a focus on the importance of both reducing emissions now and removing existing gases from the atmosphere to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The host and guest emphasize the need for a comprehensive approach that includes a mix of nature-based solutions, such as afforestation and soil carbon sequestration, as well as engineered technologies like direct air capture.

Throughout the episode, the host and guest explore the different categories of carbon removal, including biomass carbon removal and storage, geological storage, and unconventional methods like kelp farming. They highlight the importance of understanding the capture, utilization, and storage of carbon in evaluating the effectiveness and durability of each method.

The conversation also touches on the evolving landscape of carbon removal technologies, with a focus on the need for continued research and development, government support, and deployment incentives to scale up promising solutions. The host and guest stress the urgency of accelerating the deployment of carbon removal strategies to address the escalating climate crisis.

Overall, the episode provides a comprehensive overview of the complexities and challenges of carbon removal and reduction efforts, emphasizing the need for a multifaceted approach to combatting climate change effectively. Through engaging dialogue and expert insights, listeners gain a deeper understanding of the critical role of nature-based and engineered solutions in achieving a sustainable future.

• Introduction to Nature-Based Climate Solutions

• Discussion on the Importance of Carbon Removal

• Different Types of Carbon Removal

• Nature-Based Solutions and Soil Carbon Sequestration

• Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies

• Accelerating Deployment of Carbon Removal Technologies

• Cost Considerations and Government Support for Research and Development

• "The great tragedy of climate and biodiversity finance is that those who understand it most have their noses to the grindstone, while those who understand it least have their mouths to the megaphone." - 00:00:53-00:01:03

• "The only thing we can all really agree on at this point is that to meet the climate challenge, we must eliminate those emissions that we can eliminate and then find ways to suck the rest out of the atmosphere, getting to net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest." - 00:02:52-00:03:03

• "The fact that these tiny oscillations in the obliquity or the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit can kick into motion and then be magnified by the biological system and swing the climate into different states. It's just so fascinating. It's so powerful." - 00:10:48-00:10:58

• "Earth. We broke it. We own it. And nothing is as it was. Not the trees. Not the seas. Not the forests, farms, or fields. And not the global economy that depends on all of these." - 00:06:07-00:06:18

• "We know that the enemy is carbon and we know its ugly face. We should put a big fat price on it. And of course, add to that, drop the subsidies." - 00:05:56-00:06:07

• "There's a group of us now who are proposing that the Earth has actually entered a new epoch, and that is the Anthropocene." - 00:05:56-00:06:07

• "We can restore it. Make it better. Greener. More resilient. More sustainable. But how? Technology? Geoengineering? Are we doomed to live on a bionic planet? Or is nature herself the answer?" - 00:06:18-00:06:29

• "The enemy is climate change and the we is the climate community. Those of us who've been in the trenches fighting this beast for decades in some cases." - 00:01:47-00:01:57

• "I think carbon removal and storage, removing carbon and then storing it safely somewhere, it serves a couple purposes." - 00:12:51-00:13:01

• "The more you do something, the more you build, the more the costs go down. And we've seen this happen with solar and wind." - 00:44:34-00:44:44

Support Bionic Planet:

https://www.patreon.com/bionicplanet 

Guests:

Jim Pittman (https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamespittman/)

Matt Orsagh (https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-orsagh-a1b8417/)

Steve Rocco (https://www.linkedin.com/in/steverocco/)

Books Referenced:

Ecological Economics (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/77985.Ecological_Economics?ac=1&from_search=true&qid=ZDNVmbxl5B&rank=1)

The Limits to Growth (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/705418.Limits_to_Growth?from_search=true&from_srp=true&qid=1uh5jgBt1O&rank=1)

The Web of Life (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/26155239-web-of-life)

Energy and Civilization (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31850765-energy-and-civilization?from_search=true&from_srp=true&qid=pCNkYwiE3S&rank=1)

Sustainability is for Everyone (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/19107270-sustainability-is-for-everyone?from_search=true&from_srp=true&qid=sX3sH8kdj5&rank=1)

Less is More (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/53328332-less-is-more?ref=nav_sb_ss_1_12)

Donut Economics (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/57410899-donut-economics?ref=nav_sb_ss_1_15)

Technical Revolutions in Financial Capital (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/60509.Technological_Revolutions_and_Financial_Capital?from_search=true&from_srp=true&qid=TcwHjED9BR&rank=1)

The End of Nature (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/199359.The_End_of_Nature?ref=nav_sb_ss_1_17)

In Season 9, Episode 110 of Bionic Planet, titled "Ecological Economics, Systems Thinking, and the Limits to Growth," we delve into a thought-provoking discussion with ecological economists Jim Pittman, Matt Orsagh, and Steve Rocco. The episode explores the fundamental concepts of ecological economics, systems thinking, and the difference between overshoot and tipping points.

The conversation begins with a reflection on the limitations of using GDP as a measure of a nation's health, as highlighted by economist Simon Kuznets, the inventor of GDP. The guests emphasize the importance of rethinking economic health and well-being, shifting from a focus on GDP growth to a more holistic approach that includes human and planetary health.

The discussion then delves into the historical context of the environmental movement, referencing influential books like "The End of Nature" by Bill McKibben and "The Limits to Growth" published in 1972. The guests highlight the interconnectedness of human activities, climate change, biodiversity loss, and the urgent need to address these issues before reaching irreversible tipping points.

The conversation also touches on the concept of degrowth, which proposes an equitable downscaling of production and consumption to enhance human well-being and ecological conditions. The guests emphasize the importance of transitioning from individual self-interest to collective optimization, drawing parallels with the behavior of slime molds in response to scarcity.

The episode concludes with a call to action for reevaluating our current economic paradigm, shifting towards a more sustainable and equitable model that prioritizes health and well-being over GDP growth. The guests stress the urgency of addressing planetary boundaries, overshoot, and the impending tipping points that threaten the stability of our ecosystems.

Overall, the episode provides a thought-provoking exploration of ecological economics, systems thinking, and the imperative need for transformative change to ensure a sustainable future for humanity and the planet.

• Introduction to Ecological Economics and Systems Thinking

• Discussion on the Influence of Popular Books on Climate Change Awareness

• Evolution of Climate Change Discourse and Scientific Consensus

• Introduction to the Limits to Growth and Systems Modeling

• Discussion on the Flaws of GDP as an Indicator of Success

• Importance of Systems Thinking and Tipping Points

• Degrowth as a Response to Overshoot and Tipping Points

• Challenges and Opportunities in Transitioning to a Degrowth Paradigm

• The Role of Slime Molds in Understanding Resource Allocation

• The Urgency of Addressing Planetary Boundaries and Resource Scarcity

• The Need for Collective Action and Policy Changes in the Face of Environmental Challenges

• Reflections on the Evolution of Economic Thinking and the Path to Sustainable Development

• "Goals for more growth should specify of what and for what." - 00:00:23-00:00:34

• "It's the difference between knowing that your two packs a day could very well give you cancer and hearing the doctor clear his throat and say, 'I've got something to tell you.'" - 00:01:06-00:01:17

• "Degrowth is just the end result there. It's not like we want that. It's just like you need it because you've got to go on a diet." - 00:06:24-00:06:34

• "We know that the enemy is carbon and we know it's ugly face. We should put a big fat price on it. And of course, add to that, drop the subsidies." - 00:07:16-00:07:26

• "Earth Overshoot Day from the Global Footprint Network using the ecological footprint methodology." - 00:44:29-00:44:40

• "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop. And of course, it will stop. It's unsustainable." - 00:45:01-00:45:11

• "We're using Earth as though we had 1.6 Earths to use. That's the consumption and the rate of resource use we're using." - 00:44:51-00:45:01

• "Most of all, when proposing GDP as an indicator, Kuznets did not intend for it to be used in the way that we're using it now." - 00:46:21-00:46:32

Support Bionic Planet: https://www.patreon.com/bionicplanet 

In episode 109 of Bionic Planet, we learn how the Quilombola people of Brazil are blending the IPCC Livelihood Vulnerability Index Assessment with soil carbon methodologies developed under the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) to save themselves and their soil from urban expansion and agricultural encroachment. 

We begin with Sandra Pereira Braga, a descendant of enslaved peoples who has been farming on her family's land for almost 300 years. Sandra's story highlights the importance of recognizing and valuing the traditional practices and accumulated carbon stocks of these communities.

Our main guest is Vasco van Roosmalen, CEO of ReSeed, a startup focused on helping smallholder farmers access climate financing. Vasco discusses the innovative approach taken by ReSeed to support vulnerable farmers who are already practicing regenerative agriculture. By adapting methodologies like VM42 for soil carbon and utilizing the IPCC vulnerability assessments, ReSeed is helping farmers access the funding they need to maintain their existing carbon stocks and continue their sustainable practices.

We also delve back into the challenges of land tenure in Brazil, discussing the complexities of land titles and the implications for carbon projects. The recent Operation Greenwashing by Brazilian authorities targeting projects with fake land titles underscores the importance of ensuring legal ownership and sustainable management practices.

Overall, the episode sheds light on the critical role of smallholder farmers in climate action and the need for innovative approaches to support these communities in preserving their lands and traditional practices. Through initiatives like ReSeed, there is hope for empowering farmers to mitigate climate change and protect their livelihoods for future generations.

• 00:00:00 - Introduction to Regenerative Agriculture in Brazil

• 00:05:30 - Importance of Carbon Finance for Smallholder Farmers

• 00:10:00 - Challenges Faced by Quilombola Communities

• 00:15:00 - Role of Carbon Markets in Agriculture

• 00:20:00 - Methodologies for Assessing Vulnerability and Carbon Stocks

• 00:25:30 - Discussion on VM42 Soil Carbon Methodology

• 00:30:00 - Land Tenure Issues in Brazil

• 00:35:00 - Operation Greenwashing and Land Title Fraud

• 00:40:00 - Challenges of Land Titling and Timber Management

• 00:45:00 - Overlap of Illegal Land Titles and Carbon Projects

• "My people have been on this land for 276 years." - 00:00:38-00:00:50

• "Today's guest, Vasco van Roosmalen, is the CEO of a startup called ReSeed." - 00:02:58-00:03:08

• "We know that the enemy is carbon, and we know its ugly face, we should put a big fat price on it, and of course, add to that, drop the subsidies." - 00:05:52-00:06:04

• "Man may be unwittingly changing the world's climate through the waste products of his civilization." - 00:05:52-00:06:04

• "We need to recognize what they have been doing for 300 years, the accumulating of that biomass in that soil and the protection of the agroforest that they have on their land." - 00:28:39-00:28:50

• "It's a way to quantify actions that need to be taken to help that economic sector move from those high emissions to low emissions." - 00:14:56-00:15:06

• "Smallholder farmers are among the most vulnerable to climate change. They're the front lines of climate change." - 00:16:10-00:16:21

• "We need to really look at their ability to adapt." - 00:33:14-00:33:25

• "It's a step process. First illegal land titles, then sustainable management, timber plans that weren't followed." - 00:45:10-00:45:21

• "But it was all built on the very beginning of those illegal land titles." - 00:46:14-00:46:24

Photo by Karol Stefański on Unsplash

Support me at patreon.com/bionicplanet

Related Links to Follow

In episode 108 of Bionic Planet, I delve into a recent article published by the Washington Post that is riddled with inaccuracies, false premises, and misleading information. The episode serves as a critical analysis of the article, highlighting the importance of fact-checking and the credibility of mainstream media in reporting on complex issues such as climate change and carbon finance.

The episode begins with a passionate rant about the Washington Post's story, titled "How Carbon Cowboys Are Cashing In on Protected Amazon Forest," which misrepresents the reality of carbon credits and their role in combating climate change. The host points out the flaws in the article's framing of the issue of nebulous land titles in the Brazilian Amazon and its failure to provide a nuanced understanding of the complexities involved.

Throughout the episode, the host emphasizes the difference between uncertainty and inaccuracy, drawing on examples from the article to illustrate the importance of distinguishing between the two. The host also references the concept of Gell-Mann amnesia, highlighting the tendency for readers to overlook inaccuracies in one area while trusting the same source on other topics.

The episode delves into the challenges of reporting on climate finance and the need for accurate and nuanced coverage in mainstream media. The host critiques the Washington Post's oversimplification of the issue of tangled land titles in Brazil and highlights the importance of understanding the nuances of carbon finance and climate solutions.

In conclusion, the host calls for a more informed and critical approach to reporting on climate issues, emphasizing the need for accuracy, accountability, and progress in media coverage. The episode ends with a call to support the podcast through Patreon and sponsorship opportunities, highlighting the importance of amplifying legitimate debates and challenging misinformation in the climate realm.

Overall, episode 108 of Bionic Planet offers a thought-provoking analysis of the Washington Post's misleading story, shedding light on the complexities of climate finance and the challenges of reporting on environmental issues in mainstream media.

00:00:00 - Introduction to Rant about Washington Post Article 00:05:30 - Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect 00:11:30 - Critique of Washington Post's Misleading Claims 00:17:45 - Misrepresentation of Carbon Market 00:20:59 - Importance of Voluntary Carbon Market 00:23:10 - Criticism of The Guardian's Perspective 00:25:28 - Examination of World Rainforest Movement 00:29:12 - Issues with Independent Auditing Groups 00:30:14 - Conclusion and Call to Action

• "The only possible explanation for our behavior is amnesia." - 00:05:21-00:05:32

• "We chase the immediate, the ephemeral, and ignore the seismic, the fundamental." - 00:18:37-00:18:48

• "Let's not forget that we're here because we failed." - 00:20:59-00:21:10

• "The fact is that many, and perhaps most, project developers were bleeding red ink for most of the past 15 years." - 00:17:45-00:17:55

• "The Washington Post seriously overstates the prices that developers have received over the past 25 years." - 00:19:38-00:19:48

• "The impetus for this Washington Post piece was a seriously flawed bit of blather called Neocolonialism in the Amazon, Red Projects in Portal, Brazil." - 00:24:46-00:24:57

• "The problems with this Washington Post piece go on and on, but it also raises a few points that could be serious if they turn out to be true, and that's what's so frustrating." - 00:30:14-00:30:24

• "Given the reporter's failure to get even basic premises right, and to insist on presenting an old, gray, intractable problem as a new, simple story complete with heroes and villains, I'm inclined to disbelieve those parts that seem to offer answers where I've only found questions." - 00:30:24-00:30:36

• "I'm not here to balance negative stories with positive ones. I'm here to balance half-baked simplistic gibberish with contextualized complex truth." - 00:31:39-00:31:49

Support Bionic Planet: https://www.patreon.com/bionicplanet

Books referenced in this episode:

"The Discovery of Global Warming" by Spencer Weart (Hypertext version): https://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm

"Lavoisier in the Year One" by Madison Smartt Bell: https://wwnorton.com/books/Lavoisier-in-the-Year-One/

"The Life and Letters of Joseph Black, M. D." by William Ramsay (Hypertext version): https://archive.org/details/lifelettersofjos00ramsrich/page/n5/mode/2up 

In this episode of Bionic Planet, we delve into the history of the science underpinning Nature-based Climate Solutions (NbCS), beginning in the 1620s, in the Flemish village of Vilvoorde.

The episode kicks off with the story of Jan Baptist van Helmont, a physician who conducted an experiment planting a five-pound baby willow tree in a 200-pound pot of soil, launching a sequence of events that solved the riddle of where trees come from, accelerated the Industrial Revolution that propelled us to our current state of ecological overshoot, and planted the seeds of our eventual salvation.  

The narrative then takes us through the evolution of scientific thought, from the ancient Greek philosophers to the alchemists of the Middle Ages, and eventually to the pioneers of modern chemistry like Joseph Black and Antoine Lavoisier. We explore the concepts of phlogiston, fixed air, and the discovery of oxygen, shedding light on the gradual unraveling of the mysteries of the natural world.

The episode also highlights the contributions of individuals like Joseph Priestley and Jan Ingenhousz, who made key observations about the role of plants in purifying air and the process of photosynthesis. These discoveries laid the foundation for our understanding of how plants breathe in carbon dioxide and release oxygen, shaping our knowledge of the interconnectedness of ecosystems.

The episode wraps up with a brief segue into the concept of latent heat, as elucidated by Joseph Black, and its pivotal role in the development of steam engines. This technological advancement sparked the Industrial Revolution, which delivered previously unimaginable wealth to the world but pushed our planet to the brink of ecological collapse. 

As the host, I aim to provide a comprehensive and engaging exploration of the historical milestones that have shaped our understanding of climate and biodiversity finance. By unraveling the untold story of the voluntary carbon market, I seek to dispel myths, challenge simplistic narratives, and foster a deeper appreciation for the complexities of environmental science.

Join me on this enlightening journey through the annals of scientific discovery, as we uncover the threads that connect past breakthroughs to present-day challenges and solutions. Together, we can gain a deeper insight into the intricate web of relationships that sustain life on our bionic planet. Thank you for tuning in to Bionic Planet, where we explore the past to illuminate the path forward.

This episoed of Bionic Planet is technically an episode of Andrew Greely’s podcast, Smarter Markets, where I appeared as a guest to discuss my new vertical "The Tribes of the Climate Realm."

It’s not a series but a vertical, where episodes will drop intermittently over the remainder of the year and probably for years to come. 

If you're sharing or referencing the show, please reference the original at https://www.smartermarketspod.com/carbon-frontiers-2024-episode-10-steve-zwick/

The discussion revolves around the historical context of the first generation of REDD projects and the media criticism they have encountered. Steve Zwick emphasizes the importance of understanding the different ideological factions within the climate community and the need to communicate the history and tribes within this realm to combat misinformation and cherry-picking.

Throughout the episode, Steve Zwick provides insights into the development of methodologies, the role of verification and validation bodies (VVBs), and the criticisms faced by projects like Cordillera Azul. He highlights the need for balanced evaluations and constructive critiques to drive progress in the voluntary carbon markets.

The conversation also touches on the challenges faced by journalists and market participants in accurately covering and communicating the complexities of carbon markets. Steve Zwick emphasizes the importance of thorough research, understanding uncertainty, and questioning preconceptions to provide accurate and insightful coverage of projects and methodologies.

Overall, the episode serves as a deep dive into the intricacies of voluntary carbon markets, shedding light on the evolution of methodologies, the role of VVBs, and the need for balanced and informed reporting in this complex and evolving landscape.

• Introduction to the Podcast Episode: 00:00:00-00:00:10

• Discussion on the New Vertical "The Tribes of the Climate Realm": 00:00:10-00:00:31

• Introduction to Smarter Markets Podcast: 00:00:42-00:00:52

• Exploring the Crisis of Information or Trust: 00:00:52-00:01:03

• Sponsorship Message by Base Carbon: 00:01:03-00:01:14

• Introduction to Carbon Frontiers 2024: 00:01:22-00:01:33

• Guest Introduction - Steve Zwick: 00:01:34-00:01:44

• Discussion on REDD Projects and Media Criticism: 00:01:44-00:01:55

• Questioning the Focus on First Generation REDD+ Projects: 00:01:55-00:02:05

• Exploring the Ideological Factions in the Climate Realm: 00:02:05-00:02:16

• Importance of Understanding the History of Markets: 00:02:16-00:02:26

• Benefits and Critiques of First Generation REDD+ Projects: 00:02:26-00:02:37

• Discussion on Baselines in REDD+ Projects: 00:02:37-00:02:47

• Criticism of Baselines and Media Misinterpretation: 00:02:47-00:02:57

• Challenges in Estimating Baselines: 00:02:57-00:03:04

• Critique of REDD+ Baselines and Media Interpretation: 00:03:04-00:03:14

• Discussion on Verification and Validation Bodies (VVBs): 00:03:15-00:03:25

• Role of VVBs in Auditing REDD+ Projects: 00:03:25-00:03:36

• Addressing Weaknesses in VVBs: 00:03:36-00:03:46

• Lessons from Credit Rating Agencies: 00:03:46-00:03:56

• Addressing Issues with VVBs: 00:03:56-00:04:07

• Evaluation of REDD+ Projects and Baselines: 00:04:07-00:04:18

• Discussion on Cordillera Azul Project Criticism: 00:04:18-00:04:28

• Critique of Cordillera Azul Project: 00:04:28-00:04:38

• Analysis of Media Criticism on Cordillera Azul: 00:04:38-00:04:47

• Evaluation of Project Achievements: 00:04:47-00:04:57

• Exploring Misinterpretations in Project Critiques: 00:04:57-00:05:07

• Discussion on Nikkei Asia's Critique: 00:05:07-00:05:17

• Importance of Balanced Reporting: 00:05:17-00:05:27

• Guidelines for Journalists Covering Climate Markets: 00:05:27-00:05:37

• "We have to keep developing new methodologies, but we can't assume the old ones are bad... the old methodologies were much better than people give them credit for." - 00:30:07-00:30:18

• "The whole point of an evolutionary process is figuring out what works, what doesn't, and moving forward." - 00:39:06-00:39:18

• "It's not a one and done thing. Don't think you can drop in, do a piece that's accurate on this and be finished." - 00:44:17-00:44:30

• "Don't think you can drop in, do a piece that's accurate on this and be finished." - 00:44:17-00:44:30

• "We need to do a much better job of explaining... the history of these markets and the science that underpins them." - 00:42:54-00:43:04

• "The old methodologies were much better than people give them credit for." - 00:30:07-00:30:18

• "We have to acknowledge that the whole point of an evolutionary process is figuring out what works, what doesn't, and moving forward." - 00:39:18-00:39:29

• "The whole point of an evolutionary process is figuring out what works, what doesn't, and moving forward." - 00:39:06-00:39:18

• "We need to do a much better job of explaining... the history of these markets and the science that underpins them." - 00:42:54-00:43:04

• "The old methodologies were much better than people give them credit for." - 00:30:07-00:30:18

In this episode of Bionic Planet, we delve into the inspiring journey of Marco Cerezo, the director of Fundaeco, a conservation NGO based in Guatemala. Marco shares his lifelong dedication to nature conservation, sustainable community development, and the fight against climate change. He recounts his early experiences studying development economics and the pivotal moment in 1989 when he learned about climate change from NASA geophysicists, which fueled his passion for conservation.

Marco discusses the challenges faced by Fundaeco in its early days, relying on small grants and volunteers to support their conservation efforts. As the organization grew, they realized the limitations of traditional funding sources and turned to carbon finance as a sustainable solution. Through the creation of a REDD+ project in Caribbean Guatemala, Fundaeco engaged over 700 forest owners and 1,000 forest parcels to protect over 55,000 hectares of forest.

The episode highlights the meticulous process of securing free, prior, and informed consent from communities, educating them about carbon, and designing a transparent benefit-sharing mechanism. Marco emphasizes the importance of building trust with communities and ensuring that they directly benefit from the carbon revenues generated by the project.

Furthermore, Marco explains the methodology used to establish the baseline for the project, utilizing national forest cover maps and regional deforestation rates. He reflects on the long-term impact of REDD+ projects, with a time horizon of 30 years, providing financial sustainability and institutional strength to conservation efforts.

As the episode concludes, Marco underscores the critical role of REDD+ in biodiversity conservation and community development, urging for continuous improvement in standards and transparency. He envisions a future where local conservation NGOs and communities are empowered with carbon knowledge to mobilize capital at the scale needed to protect tropical rainforests.

Listeners are encouraged to support the production of more episodes by becoming patrons of Bionic Planet and leaving five-star reviews to help amplify the message of conservation and climate action. The episode closes with a call to unite in the collective effort to address the climate challenge and safeguard our planet for future generations.

• Introduction to the Episode: 00:00:00-00:01:02

• Transition to Carbon Finance: 00:01:02-00:02:37

• Challenges of Implementing Carbon Finance: 00:02:37-00:03:21

• Overview of the Project in Guatemala: 00:03:21-00:04:54

• Discussion on Climate Change and Anthropocene: 00:04:54-00:05:26

• Interview Introduction with Marco Cerezo: 00:05:26-00:06:06

• Marco Cerezo's Early Conservation Work: 00:06:06-00:09:15

• Funding Challenges and Transition to Carbon Finance: 00:09:15-00:11:36

• Importance of Sustainable Landscapes: 00:11:36-00:13:46

• Agroforestry and Sustainable Farming Practices: 00:13:46-00:14:53

• Implementation of Carbon Finance in Guatemala: 00:15:05-00:17:39

• Establishing Carbon Benefit and Methodologies: 00:17:39-00:19:52

• Community Engagement and Benefit Sharing: 00:20:03-00:27:42

• Long-Term Sustainability and Time Horizon: 00:34:26-00:35:39

• Baseline Establishment and Methodologies: 00:36:01-00:37:46

• Closing Remarks and Call to Action: 00:38:02-00:38:55

In episode 104 of Bionic Planet, I delve into the intricacies of carbon finance with my guest, David Antonioli. We explore the concept of transformational finance, where carbon payments are used to catalyze sustainable practices that can eventually stand on their own. We discuss the limitations of the current additionality tool, which focuses on individual project assessments, and the need for a more holistic approach to drive long-term sector-wide transitions.

David Antonioli, with his extensive experience in climate change and carbon markets, shares insights on the need for a paradigm shift in carbon finance. He emphasizes the importance of designing the system to address what happens when carbon finance ends and the necessity of building a foundation for the future of sustainable practices.

We touch upon real-world examples, such as projects in Paraguay shifting from cattle ranching to sustainable timber harvesting, to illustrate the challenges of individual project assessments and the potential for sector-wide transformations. We discuss the need for thoughtful simplifications in research and understanding market dynamics to identify positive tipping points that can lead to sustainable transitions.

Furthermore, we highlight the positive list approach adopted by organizations like the Climate Action Reserve and the California Resources Board, which use standardized methods to define additional activities upfront. This approach streamlines the process and sets a clear path for achieving long-term sustainability goals.

Overall, the episode delves into the complexities of carbon finance, the importance of explicit transformational strategies, and the potential for sector-wide transitions to drive sustainable practices in the future.

• 00:00:00 - Introduction to Transformational Finance

• 00:05:30 - Challenges in Carbon Accounting

• 00:10:39 - Critique of Additionality Concept

• 00:14:39 - Importance of Holistic Understanding

• 00:17:27 - Need for Interlocking Solutions

• 00:20:36 - Overhauling Local Economies

• 00:23:15 - Implicit vs. Explicit Transformation

• 00:27:06 - Addressing Entrenched Interests

• 00:33:43 - Proposal for Sector-Wide Transformation

• 00:38:02 - Limitations of Current Additionality Tools

• 00:42:24 - Focus on Sector-Wide Transformation

• 00:45:06 - Procedures for Overhauling Local Economies

• "We know that the enemy is carbon, and we know its ugly face. We should put a big fat price on it, and of course, add to that, drop the subsidies." - 00:00:20

• "Everything else is a bonus, a positive externality that critics of carbon finance choose to ignore." - 00:01:42

• "We're missing the forest for the trees." - 00:14:15

• "We're so focused on every single little branch that we've lost what the bigger opportunity is." - 00:44:22

• "We're so in the weeds of the detail." - 00:44:32

• "We're so focused on every single little branch that we've lost what the bigger opportunity is." - 00:44:22

• "We're so in the weeds of the detail." - 00:44:32

• "We're so focused on every single little branch that we've lost what the bigger opportunity is." - 00:44:22

• "We're so in the weeds of the detail." - 00:44:32

• "We're so focused on every single little branch that we've lost what the bigger opportunity is." - 00:44:22

In Episode 103 of Bionic Planet, titled "Purists, Pragmatists, and the Science-Based Targets Initiative," we delve into the complex world of emission reduction targets and the challenges companies face to reach net zero emissions by 2050. The episode explores the Science-Based Targets Initiative (SBTI), a program designed to assist companies in setting emission reduction targets aligned to achieve net zero emissions.

The episode begins by highlighting the significant increase in companies committing to SBTI since January 2023, with many not submitting their plans until January 2025. We learn about the distinction between purists and pragmatists in the climate realm. Purists advocate for the complete elimination of fossil fuels in value chains, while pragmatists emphasize the use of offsets to achieve emission reductions.

Guest speaker Jen Jenkins, Chief Science Officer at Rubicon Carbon, provides valuable insights into the challenges faced by companies in reducing emissions and the balance between pragmatism and purity. Jenkins discusses the importance of understanding a company's value chain, the complexities of emission reduction strategies, and the role of offsets in achieving carbon neutrality.

The episode delves into the debate surrounding the use of offsets in emission reduction strategies, focusing on the conflicting perspectives of purists and pragmatists. Jenkins emphasizes the need for flexibility and practicality in climate action, highlighting the importance of using the available tools to address the climate crisis effectively.

As the discussion unfolds, the episode touches on the need for clear guidelines and standards in emission reduction efforts, the role of the voluntary carbon market in conservation efforts, and the challenges of balancing purity with practicality in climate action. Jenkins and the host explore the complexities of achieving net zero emissions and the importance of finding a middle ground between purist ideals and pragmatic solutions.

The episode concludes with a call to action for companies to engage in emission reduction efforts, highlighting the significance of the voluntary carbon market in driving climate action. Jenkins' insights shed light on the complexities of emission reduction strategies and the importance of practical approaches in addressing the climate crisis.

Join us in exploring the dynamic landscape of emission reduction targets, the role of offsets in climate action, and the ongoing debate between purists and pragmatists in pursuing a sustainable future on Bionic Planet.

• Introduction to SBTI: 00:00:09-00:00:19

• Interface Carpets Case Study: 00:00:23-00:00:33

• Dependence on Fossil Fuels: 00:01:22-00:01:32

• Global Emission Reduction Targets: 00:01:43-00:02:04

• Pragmatic Approach to Emission Reduction: 00:02:24-00:02:34

• Scope 3 Emissions and SBTI Controversy: 00:02:45-00:03:07

• Purists vs. Pragmatists: 00:03:36-00:03:48

• Jen Jenkins Background and Role: 00:05:52-00:06:03

• Transition to Private Sector: 00:07:39-00:07:50

• Jenkins Equations and Carbon Stock Estimation: 00:09:56-00:10:07

• Net Zero vs. Carbon Neutral: 00:11:23-00:11:34

• Challenges in Emission Reduction Planning: 00:13:38-00:13:49

• Renewable Energy Options: 00:16:47-00:16:57

• Customized Emission Reduction Plan: 00:17:39-00:17:50

• Carbon Neutrality by 2030: 00:18:18-00:18:28

• Carbon Neutral vs. Net Zero: 00:32:18-00:32:29

• Purity vs. Pragmatism in Climate Action: 00:36:24-00:36:34

• Role of Voluntary Carbon Market: 00:38:33-00:38:43

• "The purist approach would say, no, no, I need to hold everybody's feet to the fire and ensure that no matter how much it costs, ensure that these companies sort of suss out every single source of fossil fuel in their value chain and obliterate it immediately." - (00:03:48-00:03:58)

• "But we can restore it, make it better, greener, more resilient, more sustainable. But how? Technology? Geoengineering? Are we doomed to live on a bionic planet, or is nature herself the answer?" - (00:04:50-00:05:00)

• "The purists have just been better at communicating. Because pragmatism is about probabilities, uncertainties. Science itself is not about absolutes. It's about finding the concurrent views of most experts." - (00:36:34-00:36:45)

• "We kind of need to use the tools we have, we need to address the problem with what we've got at hand. And I think that's a very pragmatic look at the problem." - (00:37:56-00:38:06)

• "If you do take a purist view, especially in an environment in a market that is voluntary, you're not going to get the action you need." - (00:38:16-00:38:27)

• "The atmosphere is well mixed, we need to reduce emissions globally." - (00:30:58-00:31:09)

• "The voluntary carbon market right now in the near term is a fantastic way to help conserve those existing forests so that we retain both their carbon stocks and the important biodiversity." - (00:32:07-00:32:17)

• "The U.S. government earlier this week made a strong show of support for the voluntary carbon market." - (00:34:30-00:34:40)

• "We all want to get there. We're all motivated to get to net zero. But a pragmatic approach would say, look, if you're in an industry where the next least costly abatement action is going to cost you more than it would cost to purchase an offset, then you should go ahead and buy the offset." - (00:30:05-00:30:15)

• "We need to reduce emissions globally. The purest approach would say, no, no, I need to hold everybody's feet to the fire and ensure that no matter how much it costs, ensure that these companies sort of suss out every single source of fossil fuel in their value chain and obliterate it immediately." - (00:31:20-00:31:33)

In this episode, I had the pleasure of interviewing Robert Gilmore Pontius, Jr., a geography professor at Clark University specializing in geographic information science. Dr. Pontius shared his expertise in computer simulation models of deforestation and the impact of land change on humans.

Dr. Pontius discussed his journey into the field of geography, highlighting his passion for mathematics and maps. He emphasized the importance of simplicity in modeling and the need to eliminate distractions to focus on the essence of the problem.

The conversation delved into the complexities of land change modeling, addressing the challenges of uncertainty and the balance between simplicity and complexity in predictive models. Dr. Pontius emphasized the importance of transparency in modeling and the need to acknowledge and learn from mistakes in scientific research.

The discussion also touched on the evolution of methodologies in land change modeling, with Dr. Pontius advocating for a continuous learning process and adaptation based on new scientific insights. He highlighted the importance of open communication and collaboration in maximizing learning and addressing challenges in the field.

Overall, the episode provided valuable insights into the world of geographic information science, emphasizing the need for continuous improvement, transparency, and open dialogue in scientific research and modeling practices. Dr. Pontius's expertise and passion for the subject shone through, making for an engaging and enlightening conversation.

• "I do this because I enjoy it. And I feel completely comfortable with saying that, because if you don't enjoy it, you're not going to dedicate time to it." - 00:04:52-00:05:02

• "What good scientists do, they learn from their mistakes, and they admit them, and they say what their motivation was at the time, and then they clarify it and present something better." - 00:12:49-00:13:00

• "I wanted to give an example to the research community because I see variation even among professors in their motivations." - 00:13:00-00:13:12

• "We're not in the business of trying to say that we've solved all the problems. That's not what good scientists do." - 00:14:51-00:15:01

• "I'm not willing to take on a student unless that student is willing to tell me when they think I'm wrong." - 00:29:23-00:29:33

• "Mathematicians are always trying to eliminate distractions, get to the essence of something, and make it as simple and transparent as possible." - 00:48:07-00:48:17

• "It's trivial to choose to look at something in such detail that it's impossible to predict accurately. Easy to do." - 00:50:07-00:50:18

• "If we're doing the same thing we were doing 30 years ago, it means either 30 years ago we were so brilliant that we knew everything, or if we're doing the same thing we were doing 30 years ago, that means we haven't learned anything in 30 years." - 00:55:18-00:55:28

• "Learning is not guaranteed. Just look around the world today. I mean, things can go backward." - 00:55:29-00:55:39

• "Is capitalism or communism good or bad? It depends how it's implemented. Is religion good or bad? It depends how it's implemented." - 00:56:55-00:57:05