Can we get this election over with already?

Markets pricing in a perfect gridlock scenario.

Earnings season rolling along – good and bad news for stocks.

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Warm-Up
- Yields - Highest in months - ahead of Fed decision (tomorrow)
- Drones - will they deliver?
- October ends on a down note

Markets
- Optimism (Hysteria) ahead of (final) Election results
- Oil on the move again - Middle East tensions
- Mixed results from earnings - but still a generally good look for the main players
- What does Berkshire know?
- Big DJIA Announcement

AH - Chili Competition this weekend - reining champion - have to defend the title...

Employment Situation
- ADP said private companies hired 233,000 new workers in the month, better than the upwardly revised 159,000 in September and far ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 113,000.
- Nonfarm payrolls were up just 12,000 in October (Briefing.com consensus 120,000)
- Nonfarm private payrolls decreased by 28,000 (Briefing.com consensus 105,000)
-- These numbers were depressed by the Boeing strike and likely by the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, yet with forecasts suggesting those influences could lop off something on the order of 100,000 positions, the view to October, coupled with sizable downward revisions to the August and September payroll figures, connotes softness in hiring activity.
- Unemployment rate stood at 4.1% - no change

US GDP
- Gross domestic product increased at a 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter, below the 3.1% estimate and the 3.0% reading Q2.
- Consumer spending and federal government outlays were two of the biggest contributors to GDP growth.
- The release comes with the Federal Reserve poised to lower interest rates further despite the seemingly strong economy and inflation that remains above target.

Palantir Earnings
-Back-to-back quarters delivered beats on its top and bottom lines in Q3 and forecasted upbeat Q4 revenue figures.
- PLTR's top line continued to accelerate, advancing by 30% yr/yr to $725.52 mln, supporting its improving profitability, with non-GAAP EPS expanding by 43% yr/yr to $0.10. Total customer count continued to grow nicely, up 39% yr/yr and 6% sequentially to 629.
- U.S. government revenue has been ramping up in recent quarters. However, in Q3, the segment took a giant step forward, growing revs by 40% yr/yr and 15% sequentially to $320 mln, a seven-fold increase compared to the prior year and the best growth rate over the past 15 quarters.
- The commercial side was the showcase in Q3. Like U.S. government, U.S. commercial revs shifted into a higher gear, registering 54% growth yr/yr, up from the +33% delivered last quarter, to $179 mln

AMD Earnings
- Just not good enough
- AMD reported third-quarter results on Tuesday, with earnings in line with forecasts and revenue that slightly beat expectations.
- Here's how the company did, compared to LSEG estimates for the quarter ending Sept. 28:
- Earnings per share: 92 cents adjusted vs. 92 cents expected
- Revenue: $6.82 billion vs. $6.71 billion expected
- AMD said its important data center business doubled in sales for the second quarter in a row, but overall revenue guidance for the fourth quarter was in line with consensus expectations.
- Stock down

Microsoft Earnings
- Microsoft’s revenue grew 16% in its fiscal first quarter, faster than analysts had anticipated.
- Revenue from Azure and other cloud services was up 33%, surpassing estimates.
- Guidance for revenue growth fell short of expectations.

Amazon Earnings
- Could have been the best of the bunch
- Revenue increased 11% in the quarter to $158.9 billion, topping the $157.2 billion estimate of analysts surveyed by LSEG. Earnings of $1.43 topped the average analyst estimate of $1.14.
- Sales in the Amazon Web Services cloud business increased 19% to $27.4 billion, coming in just shy of analysts’ estimates, according to StreetAccount. That was an acceleration from 12% a year ago, but trailed the rate of growth at rivals Microsoft and Googl
- Amazon Ad growth  grew faster than Googles (18.7%)
- Amazon forecast revenue in the current quarter to be between $181.5 billion and $188.5 billion, which would represent growth of 7% to 11% year over year.

Ford Earnings
- Ford guided to the low end of its previously announced 2024 earnings forecast as it slightly topped Wall Street’s third-quarter expectations.
- The automaker now expects adjusted earnings before interest and taxes, or EBIT, of about $10 billion, down from a range of between $10 billion and $12 billion.
- Ford’s third-quarter results were led by its “Pro” commercial and fleet business as well as its traditional operations, known as “Ford Blue.”
- Stock Drops

DJIA Announcement
- INTEL OUT
- NVDIA IN 6X more point movement
- Divisor will change a bit, but still a very big influence in comparison

Bankruptcy
- TGI Fridays -CLOSED
- TGI Fridays franchisees are worried that they could be on the hook for $49.7 million in outstanding customer gift card obligations if the company's bankruptcy doesn't go smoothly, an attorney for franchisees said Monday.
-- Can we talk about the biggest scam going...

More Food News
- Chipotle misses revenue estimates as same-store sales growth disappoints
- Here's what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
--- Earnings per share: 27 cents adjusted vs. 25 cents expected
---- Revenue: $2.79 billion vs. $2.82 billion expected
- The company's food and beverage costs increased during the quarter, in part due to Chipotle's decision to re-emphasize generous portions after social media-fueled backlash over the size of its burrito bowls this summer.

Drones
- Tech Amazon gets FAA approval for new delivery drone as it begins tests in Arizona Published Tue, Nov 5 202412:11 PM EST
- Amazon says it has received approval from the Federal Aviation Administration to fly its newer, smaller delivery drones, including beyond the visual line of sight of pilots.
- The company is planning to ramp up deliveries in a city west of Phoenix, Arizona.
- The Prime Air drone program has been slowly moving forward more than 10 years after Amazon founder Jeff Bezos first conceived of the idea.

Boeing Saga
- Seems that the union is onboard to sign a contract
- 38% pay increase (over several years)
- Boeing will now be able to resume production, key to its recovery since the bulk of the aircraft price is paid when they are handed over to customers. But getting up to target production rates, particularly for the 737 Max, Boeing’s cash cow, will take time.
- But, is the company out of the woods (Stock down 40% YTD)

Meanwhile
- Warren Buffet is selling stocks
- Cash on the rise - selling Apple and BOA
- No Buybacks of Berkshire Hathaway Either
- The Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate saw its cash fortress swell to a record $325.2 billion by the end of September, up from $276.9 billion in the second quarter, according to its earnings report released over the weekend.

New 401k Limits announced
- In its release Friday, the agency increased the employee deferral limit to $23,500, up from $23,000 in 2024. The change applies to workplace plans, including 401(k)s, 403(b)s and most 457 plans, along with the federal Thrift Savings Plan.
- Across plans, the average 401(k) deferral rate was an estimated 7.4% in 2023, according to the same report. The combined savings rate, including employer contributions, was 11.7%, Vanguard found.

 

 

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Yields important again – rising and worrisome.

Hedge Fund titans getting nervous – talking bout a Minsky Moment.

End of month – October is about to be in the books.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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SHHHHH- Leaking some of my own news... eNVESTOLOGY moving to $25,000 minimum in 2025. Currently at $10,000 so if you want to get in to that investment management program with us for the current minimum - now is the time.

Warm-Up
- Yields important again - all of a sudden
- Hedge Fund titans getting nervous - talking bout a Minsky Moment
- End of month - October is about to be in the books

Markets
- Earnings season - Tech is about to bombard us
- Gold near highs as China and India buying
- Election Direction - putting money where mouth is...
- Consumers are happier - UMICH
- NAZ 100 - ATH?

Yields - On the Move

  Yields On The Move

Auto Divergence
- GM puts out some good numbers for recent quarter.
-- GM now expects full-year adjusted EBIT of between $14 billion and $15 billion, or $10 and $10.50 a share, up from between $13 billion and $15 billion, or $9.50 and $10.50.
- This marks the third time this year that GM has updated its guidance after beating Wall Street’s top- and bottom-line expectations, led by the automaker’s North American operations.
-  Ford put out okay numbers, nothing exciting at this point - stock stuck in sideways action
- Big differential with stock performance over past year

GM/FORD YTD

GM/Ford Longer

New Threshold for Capital Gains
- Starting in 2025, single filers will qualify for the 0% long-term capital gains rate with taxable income of $48,350 or less and married couples filing jointly are eligible with $96,700 or less.
- Here is an idea  - for low basis stock - possibly gift to non-dependents that have low income and they can sell at lower capital gains rate
--- Cannot do for dependents as their unearned income above $1,300 is the threshold.

Consumer Sentiment
- October Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final 70.5 vs. 68.9 Briefing.com consensus; October prelim was 68.9
- Markets reacted positively last Friday on this news.
---  Trivia: The University of Michigan (UMich) stopped releasing early versions of its Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) in 2013 as part of an agreement with the New York Attorney General's office. The university had previously received around $1 million a year from Thomson Reuters for this information.

Hedge fund big boys
- Getting nervous - Paul Tudor Jones
- The founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment said he was worried that government spending could cause a big sell-off in the bond market, spiking interest rates higher.
- Debt unsustainable and people just overlooking it
- "Will we have a Minsky moment where all of a sudden there’s a point of recognition that what they’re talking about is fiscally impossible, financially impossible?” Jones said."
- Commented how both candidates are spenders so that is not good - however, hard pressed to think that many of their spending promises will actually go through.

Minsky Moment Defined
- A Minsky moment is a sudden, catastrophic collapse of asset prices after a period of growth and stability. It's named after American economist Hyman Minsky (1911 to 1996), who believed that markets are inherently unstable and long periods of good markets eventually end in larger crises.
- A Minsky moment occurs when excessive debt accumulation becomes unsustainable. Borrowers can no longer meet their debt obligations using their income, leading to a sudden decline in asset prices and a financial crisis. 

Housing Market
- Sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly fell last month, slowing to a pace not seen since 2010, when the U.S. was still recovering from a housing market crash.
- The National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Wednesday reported that existing home sales declined 1% in September from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million, which is a 3.5% drop from one year ago.

Apple Airpods 2
- Hearing aids and hearing testing about to be launched
- Don't know how many people would like to ear all the time - most people will think that you are rude - non-discrete
- People that need hearing aids usually are all worried that it makes them look old and like them to be hidden

One Year Later
- BuyBuy Baby is shutting ALL of its stores after the new owners tried to revive the business
- Now they will be online only
- Perhaps if they paid attention the the pricing of their product they would have a better shot
- Junama Stardust Collection Baby Bassinet Pram $2,500
- on Amazon: Kinder King 2 in 1 Convertible Baby Stroller, Folding High Landscape Infant Carriage, Newborn Reversible Bassinet Pram, Diaper Bag, Anti-Shock Toddler Pushchair Stroller, Dark Grey $129

Fed contradictions - Breaking ranks
- On CNBC last week, Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh discussed the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy and its potential contradictions.
- Kevin, a former Fed Board Governor, expressed his puzzlement over the Fed's 50 basis point cut, arguing that it contradicts their previous statements about their policy.
- He criticized the Fed for not having a clear theory of inflation and for not being data-dependent.
- He also mentioned the Fed's shift in focus from core PCE to core services, excluding housing, and the importance of wages.
- Despite the dissent at the last meeting, Kevin maintained that the Fed members he knows do not play politics.

Earnings to Note
-- American Airlines third-quarter earnings and forecast for the last three months of the year topped analysts' estimates.
-----Earnings per share: 30 cents adjusted vs. 16 cents     Revenue: $13.65 billion vs. $13.49 billion expected
-- Nvidia supplier SK Hynix posts record quarterly profit, beating expectations
-----   Operating profit: 7.03 trillion won ($5.08 billion) vs. 6.8 trillion won      Revenue: 17.57 trillion won ($12.7 billion) vs. 18.11 trillion won
- Tesla shares jump on profit beat, Musk’s prediction of at least 20% ‘vehicle growth’ next year
-----Earnings per share: 72 cents, adjusted vs. 58 cents expected    Revenue: $25.18 billion vs. $25.37 billion expected
-- IBM Earnings
---- IBM missed analysts' estimates for third-quarter revenue on Wednesday, hurt by weakness in its consulting segment as businesses cut back on discretionary expenses, coupled with declines in the infrastructure business.

More Tesla
- Revenue increased 8% in the quarter from $23.35 billion a year earlier.
- Net income rose to about $2.17 billion, or 62 cents a share, from $1.85 billion, or 53 cents a share, a year ago.
- Profit margins were bolstered by $739 million in automotive regulatory credit revenue during the quarter
- Analysts now focusing on Gross Margins - as they were the shiny spot for the quarter
- Automotive revenues stalled for years - but energy generation picking up
- CEO Elon Musk said on the earnings call that his “best guess” is that “vehicle growth” will reach 20% to 30% next year, due to “lower cost vehicles” and the “advent of autonomy.”
-------Analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting a total increase in deliveries next year of about 15% to 2.04 million.
- - Shares were squeezed up 20% at one point after the print

Tesla Revenues

Chip-Gate
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company notified the U.S. that one of its chips had been found in a Huawei product after tech research firm TechInsights took apart the product, a person familiar with the matter said, revealing a possible violation of export restrictions on the Chinese company.
- The teardown was of Huawei's Ascend 910B, another source said. The 910B is viewed as the most advanced AI chip available from a Chinese company. The first source would not identify the item, but said the TSMC chip was one within a multi-chip system.

World Series
-Tickets for the 2024 World Series between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to be the most expensive ever. The average price for a ticket on the secondary market is around $1,703, which is more than double the average price for the 2023 World Series. The cheapest tickets for Game 1 were $977 for seats in the right field bleachers
- Some seats are aaid to be going for $20,000

Fun!  BBall
- Went to the opening game of the Heat - Pat Riley dedication of the Court
- LeBron James and his son Bronny became the first father-son duo to play together in a regular season NBA game on Tuesday as the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Minnesota Timberwolves in their season opener.

In Closing...
- Apple announces that it is testing blood-sugar app
- Looking to continue its adventure into health related apps
- No-prick technology is being tested

 

 

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There are some things we need to know about who is actually buying stocks.

Yields on the rise – estimate that they could be moving up to what level?

Big tech earnings on tap – how will markets react?

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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DONATIONS ?

Warm-Up
- Gold on a tear - not just gen pop buying
- Elephants buying up stocks - The BIG reveal
- Musk giving away $
- E-Coli Alert

Markets
- Yields cranking higher - steepening means....
- A bit of profit taking ahead of tech earnings (next week)
- More Tax abatements
- Markets look a little tired....

Treasury Rates
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.11% on Monday as investors awaited a flurry of speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers.
- This is a far cry from the lows before the latest rate cut about a month ago.
- Elections and debt loads are weighing as are the latest strong economic numbers

Yield Curve

This too...
- The Biden administration rang up a budget deficit topping $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, up more than 8% from the previous year and the third highest on record, the Treasury Department said Friday.
- The deficit came despite record receipts of $4.9 trillion, which fell well short of outlays of $6.75 trillion.
- Government debt has swelled to $35.7 trillion, an increase of $2.3 trillion from the end of fiscal 2023.
- Interest expense for the year totaled $1.16 trillion, the first time that figure has topped the trillion-dollar level. (23% of receipts are used for debt service)
- The CBO expects deficits to continue to rise, hitting $2.8 trillion by 2034. On the debt side, the office expects it to rise from the current level near 100% of GDP to 122% in 2034.

The Big Reveal
- The central bank of the Czech Republic added to positions in some of the biggest tech names among U.S.-traded stocks, as well as increasing a bet on Warren Buffett.
- Czech National Bank Bought Up Palantir, Nvidia, Apple, and Berkshire Stock
- Here is my take.... (Central Banks reporting to other options as they are strapped and backs against the wall. They know they have enough firepower to pump stocks to try to dig themselves out of a death spiral of debt)
- Is it legal - yes. Is it good for markets, yes. Is it dangerous? Yes and no - if you can print money - who cares?

More...
Let's not forget about China rolling out $112 Billion scheme to bolster stocks
- China's central bank kicked off two funding schemes on Friday that will initially pump as much as 800 billion yuan ($112.38 billion) into the stock market through newly-created monetary policy tools.
- The central bank also launched a relending program, initially worth 300 billion yuan, that would allow financial institutions to borrow from the PBOC to fund share purchases by listed companies or their major shareholders.
- 1.75% is the rate to borrow and buy stocks

Revealed - Just a quick look....
- The Swiss National Bank has 20% of its assets in equities.
- The Bank of Japan buys Japanese ETFs as part of its domestic money market operations, but it doesn’t buy foreign stocks.
- The Bank of Finland does invest in equities
- Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway, buys stocks.
- Bank of Finland buys stocks
- Last quarter - Norway's gigantic sovereign wealth fund on Tuesday reported third-quarter profit of 835 billion Norwegian kroner ($76.3 billion)
- - - To date, the fund has put money in more than 8,760 companies in 71 countries around the world.

NO TAXES!
- Donald Trump said he’d consider exempting police officers, firefighters, active duty military and veterans from paying taxes
- Why not just have no taxes for everyone?
--- UPDATE:  Former President Donald Trump's tax reform ideas could offer total or partial income tax exemptions to roughly 93.2 million Americans, or just under half of the U.S. electorate
---- Supposedly the income needed will come from tariffs (that is not a tax??)

ELON
- Elon giving away $100 to voters in PA - to sign a petition about
- "If you're a registered Pennsylvania voter, you & whoever referred you will now get $100 for signing our petition in support of free speech & right to bear arms. Earn money for supporting something you already believe in,"
- He is also gving away $1M per day
- Musk is promising to give $1 million each day to someone who signs his online petition, which reads: "The First and Second Amendments guarantee freedom of speech and the right to bear arms. By signing below, I am pledging my support for the First and Second Amendments."
- To be eligible for the $1 million, petition signers must be a registered voter and live in one of the seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the America PAC website.
- IS this legal - some say sweepstakes format is good.

CUBA
- Cuba's national electrical grid first crashed around midday on Friday after the island's largest power plant shut down, sowing chaos and leaving around 10 million people in the dark.
- The grid has collapsed three times since, underscoring the precarious state of the country's infrastructure.
- (Only 10 million people total in Cuba - so effectively entire country is out of power)

Some Relief?
- Spirit Airlines (SAVE) closed at a fresh low Friday.
- After the close, just before the deadline, they were able to extended the deadline for a debt refinancing with Vias and Mastercard
- Shares up 50% on the news

ECB Rhetoric and Rates
- Third rate cut this year, first back-to-back cut in 13 years
- Recent economic data supports case for reduction
- Quarter-point cut lowers benchmark ECB rate to 3.25%
- High interest rates have hurt investment, economic growth
- Lagarde says still on track for "soft landing"

META Layoffs
- Meta is laying off employees across units including Instagram, WhatsApp and Reality Labs, the Verge reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
- Separately, the Financial Times reported that Meta fired another two dozen staff in Los Angeles for allegedly using their daily $25 meal credits to instead buy household items including acne pads, wine glasses and laundry detergent.
- Meta has slashed around 21,000 jobs since November 2022 to keep costs low with CEO Mark Zuckerberg calling 2023 the "Year of Efficiency".

Chips - Taiwan Semi
- SMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, bet on sustaining its strong growth, after reporting on Thursday a forecast-beating 54% jump in quarterly profit driven by soaring demand for chips used in artificial intelligence (AI).
- The company boosted outlook and is boldly confirming that AI investment is very real and very strong

Starbucks Earnings
- Starbucks projects Q4 revenue and earnings below consensus; global comps fell -7%; suspends FY25 guidance; increases quarterly dividend 
- Funny - the Nike and Starbucks lovers were all over the news pumping when China announced stimulus - saying that NKE and SBUX would be direct beneficiaries
- Stock down 4% AH

JUST IN
- McDonald's shares down hard after hours
- Seems that the Quarter pounder is linked to e-coli outbreak
- - Interesting timing after Trump was serving just a couple of days ago

 

 

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Bulls remain in charge

Data not important – down the road all will be fine

Seasonality – Race to the End

CPI and PPI – conflicting

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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This week on TDI Podcast - Patrick O'Hare from Briefing.com

Warm-Up
- Bulls remain in charge
- Data not important - down the road all will be fine
- Seasonality - Race to the End
- Check the Podcast Cover Design - trying to do all from AI generation through end of year.
- Musk pulls a fast one

Markets
- CPI and PPI - conflicting
- Bank earnings - so far so good
- Fed allowing people to look past negatives - rather to opportunities ahead
- US Chips and Exports - roughed up market

Economics This Week
- Import and Export Prices
- Retail Sales
- Philly Fed
- Industrial Production
- Housing Starts
- Building Permits

Of Interest:
NY Fed says median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% at the one-year horizon, increased to 2.7% from 2.5% at the three-year horizon, and increased to 2.9% from 2.8% at the five-year horizon.
- So inflation is a bit more sticky than

Recession - No Says Goldman
- Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%

Seasonality - The Race until the end
- Sell Rosh Hashana and Buy Yom Kippur - so far so good - working just as planned. Almost...
- End of year from here favors the bulls
- Could have a few complications with the election right in  between but electoral promises will be  helpful for markets

Markets Worried?
- Biden administration officials have discussed capping sales of advanced AI chips from Nvidia Corp. and other American companies on a country-specific basis
- NVDA, INTC, AMD in the crosshairs for Middle East
- Officials are focused on Persian Gulf countries that have a growing appetite for AI data centers and the deep pockets to fund them
- The new approach would set a ceiling on export licenses for certain countries in the interest of national security
- ASML earnings miss (Stock dropped 16%) is a drag on chip/semiconductor sector

Fed Powers
- Former President Trump on Bloomberg interview says Fed Chair Jerome Powell dropped rates too much in 2020; says a president should be able to give his or her opinion to Fed on interest rates, but he or she shouldn't be allowed to order it

ELON - Pulling a fast one
- Tesla had its Optimus robots controlled by remote at CyberCab event, according to Bloomberg
- Also, reports that driver-less cars controlled by remote drivers in India (or somewhere)
- Isn't that fraud?

Example of promises hitting the wires
- Former President Trump will propose today making all interest on car loans fully tax deductible, according to Reuters
- Former President Trump will also propose a 15% corporate tax rate only for companies that produce products in America
- Former President Trump will also propose banning all Chinese autonomous vehicles from traveling on US roads (Special gift for Elon)

Consumer Confidence
- Last Friday - confidence showed people less confident
- Inflation expectations lower, but dropped 2 points from last month

JPM Earnings
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported a surprise gain in net interest income for the third quarter and raised its forecast for the key revenue source, even amid expectations that US interest rates will continue to fall.
- Revenue from the bank’s Wall Street operations also defied analysts’ estimates, with investment-banking fees surging 31%, topping estimates for a 16% gain. Equity traders notched a 27% revenue increase.
- Official:  JPMorgan Chase reported strong third-quarter earnings, with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.50, beating estimates. The bank’s performance was driven by robust trading and investment banking revenues. This reflects a slight drop compared to the same quarter last year, when earnings were $4.33 per share. However, JPMorgan's revenues increased from the previous year's figure of $39.8 billion

Other Banks:
- Wells Fargo also reported better-than-expected earnings, with a notable increase in net interest income. The bank reported earnings of $1.28 per share on revenue of $20.37 billion, showing a 2% decline in revenue compared to last year. Net income dropped 11% year-over-year to $5.1 billion?
- BlackRock and Bank of New York Mellon are among other financial heavyweights that released their results today and did well.

Eli Lilly
- GLP1 weight loss meds come off the short supply list by the company
- FDA takes off too - which means compounding will not be  available for this drug (Zepbound - Tirzepatide )
- Compounding companies sue the FDA
- Less than a week later, the FDA is reconsidering allowing compounding companies to continue production
- WAIT - Doesn't Lilly have a patent until 2036?

Tesla Robo-Taxi Day - Follow Up
- DUD - promises and nothing except a car growth no steering wheel or driver's cockpit (as we predicted)
- Stock down 8% the next day as analysts seem to be getting bored with the story.

Boeing Follow Up
- Now the company - (employees still on strike) - laying off 10% of their employees - 17,000
- If cut to junk status, Boeing Co. will be the biggest US corporate borrower to ever be stripped of its investment-grade ratings and join junk bond indexes, flooding the high-yield market with a record volume of new debt to absorb.
- S&P Global Ratings said it’s considering downgrading the planemaker to junk as strikes at its manufacturing sites persist, hurting production.

Social Security Recipients
- The Social Security Administration has announced a 2.5% the cost-of-living adjustment for 2025.
- TIPs, SS payments

CPI and PPI
- The September Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), leaving it up 2.4% year-over-year versus 2.5% in August.
- The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%), leaving it up 3.3% year-over-year versus 3.2% in August.

CPI YoY

China
- China’s exports and imports both missed expectations in September, raising concerns about one of the few bright spots in the world’s second largest economy.
- Customs data out Monday showed exports rose by 2.4% in September from a year ago in U.S. dollar terms, while imports added 0.3%.
- Analysts had expected faster growth. China’s exports were forecast to have risen by 6% year-on-year in September in U.S. dollar terms, with imports anticipated to have posted a 0.9% year-on-year climb last month, according to Reuters polls.

Nuclear
- "NEW CLEAR ENERGY"
- Alphabet will support construction of 7 smaller US nuclear power reactors to help power artificial intelligence, according to WSJ
- “We believe that nuclear energy has a critical role to play in supporting our clean growth and helping to deliver on the progress of AI,” Michael Terrell, senior director for energy and climate at Google, said on a call with reporters. “The grid needs these kinds of clean, reliable sources of energy that can support the build out of these technologies. … We feel like nuclear can play an important role in helping to meet our demand, and helping meet our demand cleanly, in a way that’s more around the clock.”
- potential related stocks: VST, NLR, CCJ, SMR

Interesting
- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway continued to increase its stake in SiriusXM now owning 32% of the New York-based satellite radio company.
- The Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate purchased roughly 3.6 million shares for about $87 million in separate transactions Wednesday through Friday, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission late Friday.

Kroger Again
- Announcing additional 25,000 hires for end of year holiday expectations
- Kroger Owns:
---Supermarkets – Kroger, Ralphs, Dillons, Smith’s, King Soopers, Fry’s, QFC, City Market, Owen’s, Jay C, Pay Less, Baker’s, Gerbes, Harris Teeter, Pick ‘n Save, Metro Market, Mariano’s
- Multi-department stores – Fred Meyer
--- Dillons Marketplace, Fry’s Marketplace, King Soopers Marketplace, Kroger Marketplace, Smith’s Marketplace
-- - Price-impact warehouse stores – Food 4 Less, Foods Co

Bankruptcy and Closings
- Wholesale hardware supplier True Value has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and is planning to sell by the end of the year to rival Do It Best.
- Nearly 450 7-Eleven stores across North America are closing for underperforming, according to the company.

 

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Does anyone care about the data? Does the Data Matta?

Port Strike ENDED – for now

Hurricane Milton – Strong Cat5 going to hit West Coast of Florida…

Employment Report Update

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Reminder: Intel CTP is open!

Warm-Up
- Does anyone care about the data?Does the Data Matta?
- Port Strike ENDED - for now
- Hurricane Milton - Strong Cat5 going to hit West Coast of Florida...
- Employment Report

Markets
-Headwinds, Wars, Higher Rates, Higher Fuel Costs - Who Cares?
- Hurricane Impact - Oil on the move
- Yields moving higher
- Robotaxi Day!

Want to Bet?
- A federal appeals court on Wednesday refused to block a lower-court ruling allowing Americans to bet on the outcome of the 2024 congressional elections.
- This will be BIG - and a difficult thing to handicap
- Plenty of ways to eventually get into the betting craze 0 from sportsbooks to investors with binary style investments.
- Thoughts?

Hurricane Milton
- Nasty Storm hitting the Gulf Area
- Generac stock flying - up 8% Monday and 50% YTD
- Stock is down from $500 to $170 (from peak in 2021)
- Crude oil rallying - combination of Hurricane Milton and Middle East conflict
-- Follow-Up: Crude Dropping as HurcMilt not going to disrupt Gulf Oil

All Over
- Strike OVER!
- Tentative deal and back to work....after first strike since 1977
- Under the tentative new agreement, workers will earn a 61.5% raise over six years. That means the highest paid workers would make $63 per hour in the final year of the contract — up from $39.
- NO AUTOMATION - The union argues that technological advances could threaten the existence and value of union jobs, a concern that has persisted to varying degrees since the Industrial Revolution first introduced machines into the manufacturing space.

Budget Deficit - No One Cares
- The federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion in fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates.
- The estimated deficit for 2024 was $139 billion more than the shortfall recorded during fiscal year 2023.
- Revenues increased by an estimated $479 billion (or 11 percent).
- Revenues in all major categories, but notably individual income taxes, were greater than they were in fiscal year 2023.
- Outlays rose by an estimated $617 billion (or 10 percent).
- The largest increase in outlays was for education ($308 billion).
- Net outlays for interest on the public debt rose by $240 billion to total $950 billion.

Pfizer
- Starboard Value has amassed a roughly $1 billion stake in drugmaker Pfizer, according to people familiar with the matter.
- Starboard believes that Pfizer’s current leadership under CEO Albert Bourla has stepped away from its historically disciplined cost structure and investment in novel drugs, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss confidential information freely.
- The stock is trading about 30% lower than it did in 2019.

Seriously?
- Two Democratic lawmakers are demanding that some of the biggest food and beverage companies stop engaging in “shrinkflation” — the practice of reducing product sizes while charging prices that are the same or higher.
- In pointed letters, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Rep. Madeleine Dean of Pennsylvania accused General Mills, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo of engaging in a “pattern of profiteering” through shrinkflation and by “dodging taxes.”

Employment Report
- Nonfarm payrolls increase by 254,000 in September
- Unemployment rate falls to 4.1% from 4.2%
- Average hourly earnings rise 0.4%; up 4.0% year-on-year
- Average workweek slips to 34.2 hours from 34.3 hours
- Yields Rocking higher - above 4% now..

Fed Move
- After employment report there was a realization that we may need to consider fewer rate cuts
- (It is amazing that there will be any after that report)
- Chance of 0.25% rate cut 86% - before was higher chance of bigger cut.

EuroZone Flation
- Euro zone inflation fell to 1.8% in September, coming in below the European Central Bank's 2% target, flash data from statistics agency Eurostat showed Tuesday.
- The core inflation rate, which excludes more volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, came in at 2.7%. It was forecast to remain unchanged from the August reading of 2.8%.

Tesla Robo-Taxi Day?
- Tesla has been promoting their upcoming “Robotaxi Day” presentation, set for October 10 at Warner Brothers Studios in Los Angeles. Delayed from August
- According to most reports, There’s one big problem. Tesla doesn’t have a robotaxi system. It’s not even close.
- What will they show? FSD with no wheel or pedals?
--- Or will there be a mssove suprise in store for all of us?

Boeing
- S&P places Boeing Co. ratings, including its 'BBB-' issuer credit rating, on CreditWatch Negative on strike-related financial risk 

China's Stimulus - Bulls on it
- Now there is speculation that the big push by China will help beleaguered names like Starbucks and Nike
- Bulls are making up a story to try to get these names going again

Hang Seng

CHINA - One Day Later
- China state planner lays out further actions to boost economy but no new plans for major stimulus
- FXI and MCHI ETF Down 10-11% (Hang Seng)
- China A Shares - Up 10% on the open, but faded throughout the day as not NEW stimulus offered.

Samsung
- South Korean tech giant Samsung Electronics on Tuesday reported that it expects worse-than-expected profit for the third quarter.
- In guidance released Tuesday, the world’s top memory chip maker said operating profit for the quarter ending September is projected to be around 9.10 trillion won, marking a 274% surge from last year’s 2.43 trillion Korean won. However, the figure missed LSEG expectations.
- “The company needs to remain flexible about its memory supply control, since the downfall of conventional DRAM will likely hurt Samsung more than its smaller rivals,” Macquarie Equity Research analysts said in a recent note.

Jeans - Not all styles working
- Levi Strauss & Co  - their overall business is being dragged down by its Dockers brand
- Sales at Levi's brand were up 5% during its fiscal third quarter — the biggest gain in two years
- Stock was down 8% on the news
- During the quarter, sales at Dockers were down 15% to $73.7 million while Beyond Yoga, the buzzy athleisure brand it acquired in 2021, saw sales grow 19% to $32.2 million.
- Work/Life balance leaning toward self enrichment?

Pepsi
- PepsiCo on Tuesday lowered its full-year outlook for organic revenue after its second straight quarter of weaker-than-expected sales.
- Earnings per share: $2.31 adjusted vs. $2.29 expected
- Revenue: $23.32 billion vs. $23.76 billion expected
- Shares have been on a trend lower for a while - so this as seen as buying opportunity

Still In The News
- Nearly two years after FTX spiraled into bankruptcy, a Delaware judge approved the company's reorganization plan, which involves paying out more than $14 billion to customers of the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange.
- "Looking ahead, we are poised to return 100% of bankruptcy claim amounts plus interest for non-governmental creditors through what will be the largest and most complex bankruptcy estate asset distribution in history," said John Ray, who took over as FTX CEO
- The company says it has collected between $14.7 billion and $16.5 billion worth of property for distribution. FTX previously estimated that it owes creditors around $11.2 billion.
- The price of bitcoin is up roughly 260% since FTX's failure.

Betting On The Election
- Now you can do it!
- Once way: Forecast Contracts are traded via IBKR ForecastTrader --> Example: Cost $$0.40 for Harris - If Win you get $1.00)
- Seems that betting on political election outcomes is legal

Red Lobster Autopsy
- It sounds like a shrimp-ly irresistible offer, but Red Lobster’s $20 endless shrimp deal was allegedly the main suspect in the chain’s bankruptcy filing earlier this year, the new CEO said in a recent interview.
- The Los Angeles Times previously reported how some patrons took to social media to brag about how many shrimp they were able to scarf down, including one woman who said she ate 108 shrimp during a four-hour meal.
- $20 all you can eat shrimp

 

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Bulls and Bears – (TDI Podcast running now is Bull and next week is Bear – will be interesting divergence)

End of the Month – End of The Quarter

Seasonality features the Bulls

Fed Limericks!

NEW CTP ANNOUNCED!

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Warm-Up
- Bulls and Bears - (TDI Podcast running now is Bull and next week is Bear - will be interesting divergence)
- Strike Update - could be an issue
- Another Strike - different kind - Israel and Iran
- VP Debate tonight

Markets
- End of the Month - End of The Quarter
- Seasonality features the Bulls
- Good quarter - setting up for more gains?
- Question - Capital Gains??
- Inflation (PCE) Update

--- Fed Limericks ....And another  AI generated CoverArt - what do you think?

ANNOUNCING CTP for INTC

Market Selling Off
- Iran sending in missiles to Israel started a general concern
- VIX popped over 20 for a minute
- Markets down 1%++, but found reasons to try to come back mid day

Inflation
- Inflation moved closer to the Federal Reserve's target in August, easing the way for future interest rate cuts, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
- The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure the Fed focuses on to measure the cost of goods and services in the U.S. economy, rose 0.1% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.2%.
- Excluding food and energy, core PCE rose 0.1% in August and was up 2.7% from a year ago. Fed officials tend to focus more on core as better measure of long-run trends. The respective forecasts were for 0.2% and 2.7% on core.

Euro Cars - Not Good
--- Blaming China....
- Stellantis on Monday trimmed its 2024 annual guidance on the back of deteriorating "global industry dynamics" and bolstered competition from China
- The French-Italian conglomerate, known for brands such as Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Maserati, warned of lower-than-expected sales "across most regions" in the second half of the year.
- Stock down 8% on the news
- UK-based Aston Martin Global Holdings PLC has signaled that it expects lower profits for FY24 due to supply chain disruptions and a decline in sales in China. According to its trading update, the company now expects its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) to be slightly below FY23 levels.
- In addition, it no longer expects to achieve positive free cash flow in H2 2024. Following the update, AML shares crashed by around 24% as of writing.
- Stock down 43% YTD
- What about RACE, Ford and others?

China
- WOW - Best Rally n Monday since... 1998?
- Shenzen and Shanghai index up 8% on the back of:
---China's factory activity contracted for a fifth consecutive month in September as the world's second-largest economy struggles to revive its growth momentum.
- China's industrial profits plunged by 17.8% in August from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday.
------ That followed a 4.1% year-on-year increase in July, the fastest pace in five months.
-------Industrial profits covers factories, mines and utilities in China.
-- While the data was better than expected, anything that shows weakness in the economy will be met with expections that there will be more easing....
-- Note: FXI (Hang Seng, up 2% - Could be time for short on parabolic move??)

Hang Seng

Interesting Tape
- Headline at 11:30am Monday : Israel tells US that it is planning a imminent ground operation in Lebanon, according to Washington Post
- Oil is steady
- Markets turn positive
- VIX falls abit
- No fear of further escalation?

Asia
- Getting weird
- Japan's Nikkei falls over 4%, Australia stocks hit fresh all-time
- The moves in Japanese markets come as investors digest Shigeru Ishiba's victory in the Liberal Democratic Party elections last Friday. (Surprised markets)
- Ishiba’s selection forced investors to pare positions that had been built on speculation Takaichi would become Japan’s new prime minister and encourage the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates low.

Nike
- NIKE prelim Q1 $0.70 vs $0.52 FactSet Consensus; revs $11.59 bln vs $11.64 bln
- Stock DOWN 6% after hours
- - Withdrawing FY2025 Guideance due to CEO transition - will provide quarterly
- Could be a good candidate for turnaround that gets combined with China story??
- NIKE beats by $0.18, reports revs in-line, North America revenue down 11%

Humana
- Humana selling off sharply, sinking to multi-year lows, after health insurer released new 2025 Medicare Advantage offerings this morning; At about 65% of total EBITDA, Medicare Advantage insurance is company's core business, so concerns that new offerings may cut into profits may be hitting shares 

Strike Update
- A port strike on the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of Mexico will go ahead starting on Tuesday, the International Longshoremen's Association union said
- President Joe Biden said he did not intend to intervene to prevent a walkout if dock workers failed to secure a new contract by an Oct. 1 deadline.
- What will be the impact of this... said that a 1-week strike will take 1-month to recover from...

Speculation Time
- What if .... Capital Gains at 28% Flat
- Bear case - end of year debacle - sell those big gainers to get ahead of the gains
- Bull case = then buy back after wash rule expires 30 days?

Fed - Can't Stop the Jabber
- Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) open to larger rate cut in November if job growth weakens faster than expected, according to Reuters

Interference
- You wrote an interesting piece on substack
- More Google-Related Election Shenanigans
- https://dvorak.substack.com/p/more-google-related-election-shenanigans

AI Safety Bill
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Sunday vetoed a hotly contested artificial intelligence safety bill, after the tech industry raised objections, saying it could drive AI companies from the state and hinder innovation.
- What do we know about this?
--- Is the reason for the VETO simply money ?
- Newsom said he had asked leading experts on Generative AI to help California "develop workable guardrails" that focus "on developing an empirical, science-based trajectory analysis." He also ordered state agencies to expand their assessment of the risks from potential catastrophic events tied to AI use.

More AI
- OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, expects about $5 billion in losses on $3.7 billion in revenue this year,
- The company generated $300 million in revenue last month, up 1,700% since the beginning of last year, and expects to bring in $11.6 billion in sales next year, according to a person close to OpenAI who asked not to be named because the numbers are confidential.
- OpenAI, which is backed by Microsoft, is currently pursuing a funding round that would value the company at more than $150 billion

Along with Middle East - Now Putin Comments ...
--- So much bad news is being ignored - sign of healthy bull market or complacency?
- President Vladimir Putin has drawn a "red line" for the United States and its allies by signalling that Moscow will consider responding with nuclear weapons if they allow Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia with long-range Western missiles.
- Seriously?

Deja vu
- A Massachusetts woman pleaded guilty on Friday to running a high-end brothel network in the greater Boston area and the suburbs of Washington that served wealthy and well-connected clientele including politicians, corporate executives, lawyers and military officers.
- Han Lee appeared in Boston federal court to plead guilty to charges that she conspired to persuade, induce and entice primarily Asian women to travel to Massachusetts and Virginia to engage in prostitution and committed money laundering.
- Prosecutors say clients paid $350 to $600 per hour for sexual encounters with women featured on two websites that advertised nude models for professional photography as a front for Han Lee's prostitution business, which had operated since at least 2020.

Wallet Voting??
- Netflix saw a dramatic spike in cancellations after its co-founder Reed Hastings revealed he donated $7 million to Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign, according to a report.
- Cancellations on the streaming platform almost tripled in the United States after Hastings made the massive donation to a super PAC supporting Harris' presidential bid, Bloomberg reported, citing the researcher Antenna.
- Supporters of former President Trump called on conservatives to cancel their subscriptions after Hastings endorsed Harris on X and revealed the large sum of his donation in July.
- Stock did not budge....

In Closing
- Sad day:
- Kris Kristofferson, who became one of the most influential American singer-songwriters of his time with works such as "Me and Bobby McGee," as well as becoming a successful actor, died Saturday at the age of 88, according to a family statement.
- Kristofferson was born in Brownsville, Texas, on June 22, 1936, and moved frequently because his father was a general in the Air Force. After graduating from Pomona College in California, where he played football and rugby, Kristofferson attended Oxford University on a Rhodes scholarship and then fulfilled the family tradition by joining the Army.

 

 

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ANNOUNCING THE
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FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

The Fed tries to keep things in line,
But often they're missing the sign.
With rates up and down,
They baffle the town,
And leave markets far from divine!
JCD Score (A)

Jay Powell, he gives it a go,
But sometimes the signals are slow.
With rates up and down,
He puzzles the town,
As he loves to put on a show.
JCD Score (C)

See this week’s stock picks HERE

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Finally Fed makes a move (they will not be done jabbering though)

Storms heading to Florida and Gulf Coast – Natural gas prices jump

COVID Shot Stocks – “fun” while it lasted

Confidence is waning…..

CHINA!

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Warm-Up
- Finally Fed makes a move (they will not be done jabbering though)
- Storms heading to Florida and Gulf Coast - Natural gas prices jump
- COVID Stocks - "fun" while it lasted
- Confidence is waning.....
- CHINA! Bazooka Time!

Markets
- All-Time Highs - Same saying Goldilocks conditions
- Seasonality favors the bulls starting next quarter
- Uranium starting to move as people warming up to nuclear energy again
- Trump Stock on the move

Need to Pick a new CTP

Exile
- A leading economist in China has vanished following critical comments about President Xi Jinping‘s economic policies.
- What Happened: Zhu Hengpeng, deputy director at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), was detained after allegedly criticizing Xi in a private WeChat group. Zhu’s remarks reportedly included veiled criticisms of Xi’s leadership and comments on China’s struggling economy, reported The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday.
- The investigation into Zhu coincides with the Chinese Communist Party’s intensified efforts to suppress negative commentary about the country’s economic health. Under Xi, dissent has been increasingly punished, with critics facing imprisonment or exile.
- AH would be have cement shoes if this happened in the USA

On The Other Hand - CHINA PROP IT UP
- China said it will allow institutional investors to tap central bank financing for stock purchases and is weighing plans for a market stabilization fund, sparking the biggest rally since 2020 for the nation’s beaten-down equities.
- The People’s Bank of China will set up a swap facility allowing securities firms, funds and insurance companies to tap liquidity from the central bank to purchase equities
- The CSI 300 Index, a benchmark of onshore Chinese stocks, surged 4.3% to cap its best day since July 2020. In Hong Kong, a gauge of Chinese shares was up more than 5% intraday.
- MCHI up 8%, FXI up 8.5%, YINN (3X) up 25%

M&A FOLLOW UP
- Buyout firms Vista Equity Partners and Blackstone are in advanced talks to acquire Smartsheet, in a deal that could value the collaboration-software maker at close to $8 billion, people familiar with the matter said on Monday.
- NEWS: Collaboration software maker Smartsheet on Tuesday announced it would be acquired by Blackstone and Vista Equity Partners in an all-cash deal which valued the company at $8.4 billion.

THE FED
- Cuts rates by 0.50%
-- Seems to have been looking to appease markets
- Initial reaction was blah... Unwinding of positions put on right before the decision
- Next day stocks soared
- “The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance,” the Federal Reserve statement said.
- Last time Fed cut rates was COVID days , time before that was Financial Crisis of 2008
- The federal funds rate is now a range between 4.75%-5%

Meanwhile
- Consumer confidence in September suffers largest decline since August 2021
- The key takeaway from the report is that consumers' views of the current labor market situation continued to soften and became more pessimistic about future labor market conditions -- a sentiment that could weigh on consumer spending activity.
---- The Present Situation Index dropped to 124.3 from an upwardly revised 134.6 (from 134.4) in August.
------ The Expectations Index declined to 81.7 from an upwardly revised 86.3 (from 82.5) in August.
-------Average 12-month inflation expectations increased to 5.2% from an upwardly revised 5.0% (from 4.9%) in August.

Confidence

Boeing Playing Hardball
- Boeing’s CFO Brian West earlier this week said the company would freeze hiring and raises to cut costs, and would let “non-essential contractors” go temporarily.
- The cost-cutting measures come after more than 30,000 Boeing machinists turned down a contract and voted to strike.
- Boeing provided a BEST AND FINAL Offer on Monday
- Boeing had offered a 25% raise and the union endorsed the tentative contract - but they wanted more like 40%

Another Casualty
- Tupperware Brands filed for bankruptcy protection in Delaware late on Tuesday, succumbing to mounting losses due to poor demand for its once popular colorful food storage containers.
- No more Tupperware parties? (Popularized in the 1950s)
- The company has $812 million in debt, much of which was purchased by distressed debt investors at a deep discount in July, according to court filings. Those new lenders had sought to use their debt position to seize Tupperware assets including its intellectual property such as its brand, pushing to the company to seek bankruptcy protection, Tupperware said.
- Is there really any intellectual property that is worth anything there with all of the other brands these days?

Big $$$ Coming In
- BlackRock and Microsoft plan to launch a more than $30 billion fund to invest in artificial intelligence infrastructure to build data centers and energy projects, the companies said on Tuesday.
- The investment vehicle, known as Global AI Infrastructure Investment Partnership, aims to help enhance AI supply chains and energy sourcing, BlackRock and Microsoft said.
- The partnership will mobilize up to $100 billion in total investment potential when including debt financing, the companies said.

More Power
- They're planning to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant to power Microsoft's cloud and AI data centers
- Nuclear (something we talked about months ago that would be needed for Datacenters/AI)
- Constellation Energy (CEG) up 125% YTD gets nice boost on this news
- - Restating - Utilities are not only going up as rate have been going down......
-- -HOWEVER - After refurbishing it and obtaining the necessary federal and state approvals, Constellation hopes to have TMI-Unit 1 operating by 2028
- - - Planning on adding approximately 835 megawatts of carbon-free energy to the grid

Fedex Earning
- Abysmal - comes in way low and guidance is not good at all
- Stock drops 14%
- Trading close to no change for 2024

M&A
- Weird - all of a sudden lot happening at Intel
- Qualcomm approached Intel about a takeover in recent days, according to a person familiar with the matter.
--- Qualcomm for Intel - does that make sense?
-- The deal would likely face intense regulatory scrutiny, particularly from antitrust regulators, given the size and market influence of both companies.
- Intel down 50% YTD
- Company getting all sorts of deals from CHIPS Act and now
--- Apollo Global Management Inc. has offered to make a multibillion-dollar investment in Intel Corp., people familiar with the matter said, providing the chipmaker with a vote of confidence in its turnaround strategy and an alternative to a potential takeover by larger rival Qualcomm Inc.

Drug Companies in the Crosshairs
- The Federal Trade Commission on Friday sued three large U.S. health companies that negotiate insulin prices, arguing the drug middlemen boost their profits while “artificially” inflating costs for patients.
- The suit targets the three biggest so-called pharmacy benefit managers, UnitedHealth Group’s Optum Rx, CVS Health’s Caremark and Cigna’s Express Scripts, and their affiliated group purchasing organizations.
- The FTC may also recommend suing insulin manufacturers Eli Lilly, Sanofi and Novo Nordisk in the future.
- The PBM are going to be in trouble as these are seen as the reason for many of the massive drug price issues. (Middleman created to help with prices ended uop just making out like bandits for themselves - that will be the rationale and political take)

DJT Stock on the Move
- The wrong way
- New Post IPO/SPAC LOW as selling window opens (Selling restrictions lifted)
- Trump, whose stake in Trump Media is now worth roughly $1.4 billion, said on Sept. 13 he did not plan to sell his shares, turning the focus to other major stakeholders who could cash out.

New Highs for META
- Stock seen as a major winner from AI -
- Not because of what it can do for you - what is can do for the advertisers of META
- Up nearly 4 fold from the low in 2022

Moderna
- Stock in downtrend since August 2021
- Stock at sameprice as it was back in October 2020 after peaking close to $48- per share (now $64)
- What happened to the breakthroughs?
- Good lesson here...

MPOX Update
- Nearly 30,000 suspected mpox cases have been reported in Africa so far this year, most of them in Democratic Republic of Congo where tests have run out, the World Health Organization said on Monday.
- Stocks related GOVX, SIGA, EBS (Stocks still stuck in nowhereville)

Home Prices
- Hit an ATH - Case Shiller
- Pace of growth slowing

A Few Thousand Days
- Open AI CEO Sam Altman says the world could be just "a few thousand days" from creating an artificial "superintelligence."
- "This may turn out to be the most consequential fact about all of history so far. It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there," Altman wrote.

DOJ on Visa
- The U.S. Justice Department on Tuesday sued Visa , the world’s biggest payments network, saying it propped up an illegal monopoly over debit payments by imposing “exclusionary” agreements on partners and smothering upstart firms.
- More than 60% of debit transactions in the U.S. run over Visa rails, helping it charge more than $7 billion annually in processing fees, according to the DOJ complaint.
-

In Closing - NICE!
- CEO Jensen Huang just wrapped up the sale of six million shares of the chip maker, completing a trading plan he adopted earlier in the year—and grossing more than $700 million.

 

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THE WINNER !!
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JCD Score ()

See this week’s stock picks HERE

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Best week in a long time – markets popping!

Cats and Dogs – all anyone can talk about these days – DogCat Bounce anyone?

More back to work directives ….

Apple disappointing again.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm Up
- Best week in a long time - markets popping!
- Cats and Dogs - all anyone can talk about these days - DogCat Bounce anyone?
- More back to work directives ....
- Apple disappointing again
- All of a sudden - Now the Biden-Harris administration

Market Update
- BIG week of central bank rate decisions
- Rotation - still a big item keeping markets in check
- Rates LOW - bond traders overconfident?
- Oil comes back after miserable 2 weeks
- TrumpCoin?

Central Banks
- The Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated two-day meeting, which gets underway Tuesday, is poised to take center stage.
- Elsewhere, Brazil’s central bank is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting on Wednesday.
- The Bank of England, Norway’s Norges Bank and South Africa’s Reserve Bank will all follow on Thursday.
- Bank of Japan will provide its rate decision Friday
--- Markets getting a bit more volatile ahead of this Fed rate decision

BACK TO WORK!
- Amazon is instructing corporate staffers to spend five days a week in the office, CEO Andy Jassy wrote in a memo on Monday.
- The decision marks a significant shift from Amazon’s earlier return-to-work stance, which required corporate workers to be in the office at least three days a week. Now, the company is giving employees until Jan. 2 to start adhering to the new policy.

One Day Later
- Oracle provide some really nice earnings and guidance that the market loved... (Discussed last week)
- A day later:
--- Oracle now sees at least $66 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue, around $1.5 billion more than analysts had expected.
---- Capital spending also will increase.
------The company plans for over $104 billion in revenue in the 2029 fiscal year.
- Odd that  this was the next day
- Stock up 55% - 2nd best of tech companies just behind Nvdia
- Larry is now 2d richest person in the world behind Elon Musk

Economics
- August Retail Sales 0.1% vs -0.2% Briefing.com Consensus; prior revised to 1.1% from 1.0%
- August Retail Sales ex-auto 0.1% vs 0.2% Briefing.com Consensus; prior unrevised at 0.4%
- August Industrial Production 0.8% vs 0.1% Briefing.com Consensus; prior revised to -0.9% from -0.6%
- August Capacity Utilization 78.0% vs 77.9% Briefing.com Consensus; prior revised to 77.4% from 77.8%
--- Generally economy is speeding up again and looks like signs that manufacturing may be picking up

More Issues
- This is a bad apple
- The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), a top banking regulator in the United States, said on Thursday it has issued an enforcement action against Wells Fargo due to deficiencies in its risk management practices.
- There will be no penalties - but company is still in the penalty box due to past issues

China Apple
- Online retailers in China have slashed the prices of Apple’s new iPhone 16 series ahead of its official release, as consumers in the world’s largest smartphone market hold out for the release of the US company’s first on-device artificial intelligence (AI) software.
- They are blaming this on the delay of any significant AI features

Intel Gets $$$
- The Biden-Harris Administration announced today that Intel Corporation has been awarded up to $3 bln in direct funding under the CHIPS and Science Act for the Secure Enclave program. The program is designed to expand the trusted manufacturing of leading-edge semiconductors for the U.S. government.
- The Secure Enclave program builds on previous projects between Intel and the Department of Defense such as Rapid Assured Microelectronics Prototypes - Commercial and State-of-the-Art Heterogeneous Integration Prototype. As the only American company that both designs and manufactures leading-edge logic chips, Intel will help secure the domestic chip supply chain and collaborate with the DoD to help enhance the resilience of U.S. technological systems by advancing secure, cutting-edge solutions.

Apple
- The next upgrade cycle is going to be HUGE they said
= Could be a GENERATIONAL Upgrade cycle they said
- Monday update: Apple (AAPL -3%) is exhibiting weakness today after estimated pre-orders for the newest iPhone reflect softer-than-anticipated demand. Apple unveiled its latest iPhone models last week, including the iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max
- iOS 18 is now available, bringing iPhone users around the world new ways to personalize their iPhone with deeper customization to the Home Screen and Control Center; the biggest-ever redesign to Photos, making it even easier to find and relive special moments; and major enhancements to Messages and Mail. Starting next month, iOS 18 will introduce Apple Intelligence, the personal intelligence system that combines the power of generative models with personal context to deliver intelligence that is incredibly useful and relevant while protecting users' privacy and security.

This...
- Former President Trump on Monday is expected to announce the launch of a new cryptocurrency project that would be led by his two oldest sons.
- Trump's crypto platform will be called World Liberty Financial and will be formally unveiled at 8 p.m. ET by the former president at an event at his Mar-a-Lago residence that will be broadcast on X Spaces.
- "We're embracing the future with crypto and leaving the slow and outdated big banks behind," Trump said in a video posted to social media platform X on Thursday.
- The former president and his sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump have been promoting the project on social media in recent weeks in advance of the platform's launch
- Crypto news outlet CoinDesk obtained excerpts of a draft white paper describing the project, which noted that the former president's 18-year-old son, Barron, is listed as the project's "DeFi visionary."

Here is the issue:
- Genetic testing company 23andMe has agreed to pay $30 million to settle a class action lawsuit from customers impacted by a 2023 data breach when hackers accessed the personal data of millions of users on the platform.
- The complaint accused 23andMe of failing to adequately protect users' information and failing to sufficiently notify users of the breach, as well as other claims. The company denied any wrongdoing as part of the settlement agreement.
- One of reasons AH will not use this kind of service
- Get your payout of you used service and qualify!

Workers MAD
- Boeing's new CEO moved into his new home in Seatle a little over a month after being names CEO
- Cost $4.1M
- The home is 4,180 square feet and sits on a 9,217 square foot lot.
- Ortberg's move comes as tens of thousands of Boeing factory workers went on strike this week after 96% of union members rejected a new contractor offer.
- Workers on strike mad that since the CEO has the money to buy that big of a house - they can pony up the money to pay the increased wages that are being demanded.
- One of the main demands from the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers' Union (IAM) is a 40% pay raise.
- In response: Boeing is freezing hiring and weighing temporary furloughs to cut costs as a strike by more than 30,000 workers entered its fourth day on Monday

Home Depot
- Home Depot is being ordered to pay nearly $2 million to settle a civil claim from California district attorneys that the company overcharged customers for products.
- According to Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón, the retailer allegedly "engaged in false advertising and unfair competition" because it charged customers prices higher than the lowest advertised or posted price.
- This type of offense, known as a "scanner violation," occurs when the price on the item or on the item’s shelf tag does not match the universal product code that's scanned at the point-of-sale device or register, according to Gascón.

HIRING!
- Discount grocer Aldi is boosting its staff for the holiday season with plans to hire more than 13,000 store and warehouse workers.
- Along with boosting its workforce, the grocer announced that it will continue adding new stores across the U.S. while it simultaneously prepares for the busy shopping period.
- To entice applicants, the company also announced that it's raising the national average hourly pay too.
---???? Are they expecting a rush  to buy baked beans as gifts this holiday season?
-- Also, sounds good for the holiday season - truth is that they have been working on expanding footprint for some time and the hiring has nothing to do with the holidays.

M&A
- Buyout firms Vista Equity Partners and Blackstone are in advanced talks to acquire Smartsheet, in a deal that could value the collaboration-software maker at close to $8 billion, people familiar with the matter said on Monday.
- The private-equity firms are discussing an offer of around $56 per share for Smartsheet, the sources said, adding that the deal could be signed in the coming weeks assuming there are no last-minute snags.
- Smartsheet is a software as a service offering for collaboration and work management, developed and marketed by Smartsheet Inc. It is used to assign tasks, track project progress, manage calendars, share documents, and manage other work, using a tabular user interface.
- Thought this was going to be a buyout candidate one day - but by a tech firm - P/E going to gut this and sell when costs under control

Banks
- Stress test - all pass with flying colors
- The largest U.S. banks said on Friday evening that they would increase payouts to investors in moves that were generally expected after lenders sailed through the Federal Reserve’s stress tests this week—but the firms’ capital plans remain closely watched each year.

Good news!
- Red Lobster exits chapter 11 bankruptcy
- The Orlando, Florida-based chain, which lost $76 million in 2023, shuttered dozens of its North American restaurants over recent months
- Red Lobster is now an independent, privately-held company with 545 restaurant locations in 44 states and four Canadian provinces.

WIFI in  The Air
- United will start testing Starlink’s satellite Wi-Fi on its flights early next year.
- SpaceX has previously signed deals with Hawaiian Airlines and semi-private airline JSX.
- Delta and other carriers have been investing in faster inflight Wi-Fi and offering it for free.
- United Airlines said Friday that it plans to offer inflight Wi-Fi for free using Starlink from Elon Musk’s SpaceX on its hundreds of jetliners, the biggest inflight internet deal yet for the satellite service provider.

Is this a concern?
- Hundreds of handheld pagers exploded near simultaneously across Lebanon and in parts of Syria on Tuesday, wounding members of the militant group Hezbollah, the Iranian ambassador and dozens of other people. Officials pointed the finger at Israel in what appeared to be a sophisticated, remote attack at a time of rising tensions across the Lebanon border.
- How can these be allowed on airplanes if they can be remotely detonated?

Egg Prices
- On the rise again
- CalMaine (CALM) comes up with good earnings and outlook
- 50% increase in prices over the past year
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111

Closing - What is our bet on the Fed Decision tomorrow?
- 0.0%
- 0.25%
- 0.50%

 

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August ends on the high side – (like July) and then gets knocked down hard (like August) and then Rips higher on Monday (like August)

Rate cut bets are in place

Market very skittish – September not the best month on average

VIX hits 25 last week

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DONATIONS ?

Warm Up
- Another Rough Start to the month
- Apple Event - market was
- Last episode - ETF and Funds Education - lots of great comments on that!
- DEBATE TIME - right in the middle of our show! Someone needs to look at our schedule

Market Update
- August ends on the high side - (like July) and then gets knocked down hard (like August) and then Rips higher on Monday (like August)
- Rate cut bets are in place
- Market very skittish - September not the best month on average
- VIX hits 25 last week
- Yen Carry trade issue not fully resolved
- YIELD CURVE UPDATE

Big News
- Yield curve normalizes for 2/10's
- Yield curve is not normal - this is what happened  in 2001 and 2008

Apple Event
- Apple introduces Apple Watch Series X with a new design.
- Largest most advanced display ever with 30% more screen area.
- The display is larger than the Apple Watch Ultra.
- Display will be 40% brighter.
- Watch will be 10% thinner than Apple Watch 9.
- Background noise will be surprised on phone calls.
- Smart Stack will add widgets whenever you need them.
- Adding translate application.
-Apple Watch can track menstrual cycles.
- Apple Watch can alert users to sleep apnea.
- Starts at $399.
- A few incremental updates otherwise and talk of AI to come - one day someday

More Apple
- Europe's top court on Tuesday ruled against Apple in the tech giant's 10-year court battle over its tax affairs in Ireland.
- The Commission in 2016 ordered Dublin to recover up to 13 billion euros ($14.4 billion) in back taxes from Apple, at the time saying that the tech company had received "illegal" tax benefits from Ireland over the course of two decades.
- So is this final this time?
- How is this possible anyway - Ireland granted tax benefits for the purpose of benefiting jobs etc....

Apple Competition
- Huawei's tri-fold phone receives over 4 mln pre-orders ($2,800 per)
- Have you seen this?
- VERY COOL device

Palantir
-  Palantir Technologies hits best levels since early 2021 following inclusion in S&P 500
- +15% on the  news

Dell
- Dell also is added to the S&P 500
- Etsy and American Airlines out

Tech - Oracle Earnings
- Oracle beats on some metrics and has some great outlook
- Missed on EPS
- Partnering with Amazon
- The company said Oracle Database is thriving, and the multi-cloud agreements it has with Microsoft, Google, and now AWS make it easier for its customers to run their Oracle Databases in the cloud.
- Stock at ATH

NVDA
- WORST DAY EVER for a stock
- Slide last week took at $300 BILLION on market value in one day.
- New DOJ probe in anti-trust case
- The agency is asking questions about whether Nvidia makes it harder to switch to other suppliers of AI chips.
- Nvidia has over 80% of the market for data center AI chips, according to industry estimates.

Best Buy
- People are buying...
- Raising full year guidance
- Comparable sales declined 2.3% during the quarter, compared with a 6.2% decline a year earlier.
--- It is all about  the expectations...

Glasses - Again?
- Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon told CNBC the chip designer is working with Samsung and Google to explore a mixed-reality set of glasses linked to a smartphone
- Last year, Google, Samsung and Qualcomm struck a partnership to develop mixed-reality technology.
- This is supposed to be a smaller version of what is out there right now as opposed to over the  head from Meta and Apple

Goldman Sachs
- Goldman Sachs will post a roughly $400 million pretax hit to third-quarter results as the bank continues to unwind its ill-fated consumer business.
- Goldman is instead focusing on asset and wealth management to help drive growth.
- CEO David Solomon said Monday at a conference that by unloading Goldman's GM Card business, as well as a separate portfolio of loans, the bank would post a hit to revenues when it reports results next month.
- Stock down $20 or 4%

Debate
- Thoughts on if this one will dramatically change the race (like the last one)
- Fact checkers already in a tizzy about what to expect and how it will be spun
- Inflation and costs will be near the top
- Border security and foreign policy havd to be in the mix
- Thoughts on how this could impact markets?

Econ
- Payrolls - grew but less than expected
- Unemployment Rate dropped back to 4.2%
- The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, as expected. However, the “real” unemployment rate edged up to 7.9%, its highest reading since October 2021.
- 142,000 new jobs added.
- The previous two months saw substantial downward revisions. The BLS cut July’s total by 25,000, while June fell to 118,000, a downward revision of 61,000.
- Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% on the month and 3.8% from a year ago, both higher than the respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%.
--- CPI and  PPI due Wednesday and Thursday

China Econ
- China on Monday reported the consumer price index rose 0.6% year on year.
- Retail sales rose by just 2.7% in July from a year ago
- Major deflationary pressure in China - total mess

US Steel Saga
- The Biden administration told Nippon Steel in a letter on Saturday its $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel would pose a national security risk by harming the American steel industry, three people said, adding to evidence the U.S. is poised to block it.
- Stock drops hard
- The deal faces opposition from numerous Democrats and Republicans, with Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris saying on Monday she wants U.S. Steel to remain "American owned and operated." Her Republican rival Donald Trump has pledged to block the deal if elected.Oil

OIL
- Biden Administration buying for the SPR
- Cracked below $66 today - down from $76 end of August
- Middle East and Russia no longer  a concern?
- China  slowdown and global slowdown  cracking commodities?
- Updated OPEC projections out today: "The world oil demand growth forecast for 2024 is revised down slightly to about 2.0 mb/d, which is still well above the historical average of 1.4 mb/d seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. This minor adjustment of 80 tb/d reflects mainly actual data received year-to-date."

NFTs
- Crypto marketplace OpenSea has been added to the SEC's list of targets, as the regulator extends its crackdown on the sector.
- What took so long?
- The company's CEO said in a post on X on Wednesday that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued a Wells notice against OpenSea.
- The letter, according to the OpenSea chief, alleges that the nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, sold on its platform are securities. OpenSea is a popular platform that allows users to create, sell and buy NFTs.

 

 

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A show dedicated to the many questions of our listeners.

We focus on ETFs and Mutual Funds, contrasting and comparing the differences.

Financial Literacy is not just one month a year!

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Talking Financial Literacy

We are going to discuss details of what an ETF is and the differences from those investment vehicles and mutual funds.

• ETFs are investment funds that trade on stock exchanges, holding a diversified portfolio.
• ETFs offer instant diversification by allowing investors to buy a small slice of a variety of assets.
• ETFs trade like stocks, with prices fluctuating throughout the trading day.
• Popular for their diversification, lower costs, trading flexibility, and tax efficiency.
• Types of ETFs include stock, bond, commodity, international, sector/thematic, and inverse/leveraged ETFs.
• Downsides include market risk, tracking errors, liquidity issues, and the complexity of specialized ETFs.
• Key differences with mutual funds include trading mechanisms, costs, management styles, and tax implications.

 

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Path Change - Once the air clears, how will markets react? Cracking down on excessive "junk" fees Cracking down on Unfree Speech? Jackson Hole - big update about "The Path" PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm Up -Cracking down on excessive "junk" fees - Cracking down on Unfree Speech? - Jackson Hole - big update about "The Path" - Intel is nervous Market Update - Lower End Consumers Fueling Spend - Big news this week - NVDA earnings - Rotation ? Consumers are still spending (Discounters loving it!) - Taxing Unrealized Gains? Political rhetoric - Taxing Unrealized gains - questions coming in --- Realize this is for the ultra-rich and the potential to get this passed is not high - BUT - Harris campaign wants to see about higher taxes - which are needed, but not a good thing ----- How else are we going to pay back this mountain of debt? Jackson Hole - Time to Change the Path of Rates - Powell was clear and they are now pricing in a 100% probability of a 0.25% rate cut for September - 0.50% will probably scare some people - so 0.25% is plan - Odd ahead of election - but maybe Powell realizes he is behind the curve Target - Against the odds? - Target beat Wall Street’s earnings and revenue expectations on Wednesday. - Sales at the discounter grew as shoppers made more visits to Target’s stores and website and bought more discretionary items like clothing. - Yet, the retailer struck a cautious note, saying it expects comparable sales for the full year to be in the lower range of its guidance. - Target raised its profit guidance, however, saying it expects adjusted earnings per share to range from $9 to $9.70, up from the previous range of $8.60 and $9.60. - Investors loved it! Stock moved from $135 - $169 on the news (back to $158) ---- Walmart near ATH and Ross Stores stock at ATH SpaceX - Boeing - So embarrassing for Boeing... - Starliner is going to come back - Unmanned... - Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, will return to Earth on a SpaceX vehicle early next year Telegram - Telegram messaging app CEO Durov arrested in France - Pavel Durov, the Russian-born billionaire founder and owner of the Telegram messaging app, was arrested at Le Bourget airport outside Paris shortly after landing on a private jet late on Saturday and placed in custody. - Free speech under fire? Or is this more than just a Twitter alternative. - Supposedly 900M Daily Active users??? Junk Fees - FTC trying to crack down on "junk fees" - Last year, 15% of restaurant owners added surcharges or fees to checks because of higher costs, according to the National Restaurant Association - Inflation fee, credit card fee, health-care fee, house fee - Restaurants are fighting back as they want the fees to add to bottom line and increase profitability and benefit staff. - Makes the entire idea of going out to eat an expensive proposition. What is this? - Microsoft said Friday it will hold a conference in September for cybersecurity firms to discuss ways the industry can evolve following a faulty CrowdStrike software update that caused millions of Windows computers to crash in July. - Microsoft will meet with CrowdStrike and other security companies at its campus in Redmond, Washington, on Sept. 10 to discuss how to prevent similar issues in the future --- Wasn't this already something that was not supposed to happen? - The executive said participants at the Windows Endpoint Security Ecosystem Summit will explore the possibility of having applications rely more on a part of Windows called user mode instead of the more privileged kernel mode. - Software from CrowdStrike Check Point,