Kissing Ass is good for the wallet

Fed is about to meet and make a rate decision

Time’s Person of the Year!

Whistleblower found dead

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign...

Warm-Up
- Kissing Ass is good for the wallet
- Fed is about to meet and make a rate decision
- Person of the Year!
- Whistleblower found dead

- Markets
- Odd - DJIA down for 7 days, NASDAQ can't be stopped (TSLA pushing this time - once again a reason to look at market cap weightings)
- Fanning the flames - A new name into NASDAQ 100
- Earnings - A few interesting data points
- Social Security benefits increase
- Yes and No, Inflation and No Inflation
- Not since... 2018 or 1978?

Reminder -  the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup

Michael Bowling
Kirk Saathoff
Eric Harvey
Chad Laajala
Tim Dewey
Paul Kinder
Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner)
---Emails have gone out...

Fed Meeting Dec 18th
- 89% probability of a 0.25% rate cut
- Fed has its back to the wall - markets are dictating
- No reason to believe that they need a cut, although the would not want to worry markets or surprise them in any way
- All reporting shows that they will do the cut, back off a little as to the amount of potential cuts coming in recognition of the fact that the economy is still running well

DJIA - Records?
- The DJIA has been down for 8 days in a row and that has not happened since 2018.
- If the DJIA declines today, that would take us back to the 1970's, 1978 to be exact when there was a 9 day decline.
- But, that is the DJIA, the NASDAQ an SP500 have been holding up.
- Moreover, the fall for the DJIA this month is less that 3%, so not much damage done to the index itself.

Another Sinkhole Warning
- SP500 equal weighted is down more than 3% for the MTD.
- SP500 up slightly MTD
- NASDAQ 100 up moer than 5%
- Small-caps down 3%

BUT - Wait....
- A measure of wholesale price rose more than expected in November, adding fuel to the belief that progress in bringing down inflation has slowed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.
- On an annual basis, PPI rose 3%, the biggest advance since February 2023.
- This is after an inline CPI number.
- Rates are on the rise for bonds, as expected
--- Mark this date - inflation could make a comeback in 2025 and totally offside the fed (And they are fanning the flames )

AND Consumers are Spending
- November Retail Sales 0.7% vs. 0.5% consensus; prior revised to 0.5% from 0.4%

But - ISM Composite - Rolling Over

ISM Composite

CHIPS
- Shares of Broadcom popped more than 21% Friday morning, pushing the company’s market cap beyond $1 trillion for the first time. It will be Broadcom’s best trading day on record if the move holds until the closing bell.
The move comes after the company reported fourth-quarter results that beat Wall Street’s expectations for earnings and showed strong artificial intelligence revenue growth.
- Broadcom reported $14.05 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter, up 51% year over year but shy of the $14.09 billion expected by analysts according to LSEG. In Broadcom’s semiconductor solutions group, which includes its AI chips, revenue increased 12% to $8.23 billion from $8.03 billion a year ago.

More Chips
- US planning on restricting AI  Chips around the world
- Planning on closing China's backdoor access
-Washington plans rules limiting semiconductor shipments to some countries accused of supplying Beijing
- NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL, AMD, INTC, SMH

Nuclear - getting some traction
- SMRs - Small Nuclear Reactors
- Small modular reactors, with a power capacity of 300 megawatts or less, are about a third the size of the average reactors in the current U.S. fleet. The goal is to build them in a process similar to an assembly line, with plants rolling out of factories in just a handful of pieces that are then put together at the site.
- Only three SMRs are operational in the world (China and Russia)
- Keep an eye on the news for utilities that will be moving into nuclear - demand is high - theme for 2025

EVEN More Nukes
- GE Vernova is aiming to deploy small nuclear reactors across the developed world over the next decade, staking out a leadership position in a budding technology that could play a central role in meeting surging electricity demand and reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
- GE Vernova is the spinoff of General Electric's former energy business. The company's stock has more than doubled since listing on the New York Stock Exchange last April
- The U.S. government wants to triple nuclear power by 2050 to shore up an electric grid that is under growing pressure from surging power demand. But large nuclear projects, in the U.S. at least, are notoriously plagued by multi-billion dollar budgets, cost overruns, delayed construction timelines and, sometimes, cancellations.

Tech Wars
- Geopolitical tensions are brewing globally over the cutting of subsea cables — critical infrastructure powering cross-border internet connectivity — in the Baltic Sea.
- The severing (a week or so ago) of the cables prompted warnings of "sabotage" and potential "hybrid" warfare targeting key infrastructure in the West amid further escalations in the ongoing war in Ukraine.
-  Last week, two undersea cables were severed in the Baltic Sea, raising suspicions that subsea communication systems may be the latest target of sabotage against the West, as it clashes with Russia over the country's invasion of Ukraine.
-One of the cables disrupted was C-Lion1, which links Finland and Germany and is owned by Cinia, a Finnish state-controlled IT firm. Spanning nearly 1,200 kilometers (730 miles), it is the only direct connection of its kind between Finland and Central Europe.
-The other cable damaged was one connecting Lithuania and Sweden, BCS East West Interlink.
--- Both are either mostly or fully repaired already and had alternative routes to move data when was cut....

Musk - SpaceX
- Valuation rockets higher
- SpaceX is in discussions to sell insider shares that could boost the value of Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company to around $350 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.
- That would be a significant premium to a previously mulled valuation of $255 billion as reported by Bloomberg News and other media outlets just last month. It would also cement SpaceX’s status as the most valuable private US company.
- Earlier this year SpaceX did a tender at a valuation of ~ $211 billion

Kissing Ass
- We have seen this before - and now it is a smart move as a little brown nose goes a long way
- Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son will announce a $100 billion investment in the U.S. over the next four years during a Monday visit to President-elect Donald Trump's residence Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida.
- Tim Cook had dinner with Presedent-Elect Trump

Person of the Year!
- Time Magazine has named Donald Trump as their person of the year for the second time.
- Trump was first named person of the year in 2016 after winning the US presidential election.
- Last Thursday, The Republican president-elect is rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange to commemorate the honor alongside several of his family members.

NASDAQ 100 In and Out
- MicroStrategy is in! Talk about fanning the flames
--- MicroStrategy is a money-losing software company that is largely a leveraged bitcoin play. It's sold stock and debt to buy up more and more of the cryptocurrency. Its market cap is at $82 billion.
- On the way out? Moderna and Super Micro Computer are among the smallest Nasdaq 100 members.
- Palatir is also a name that is in the mix to be added to NAZ100

Whistleblower found Dead
- A 26-year-old former OpenAI researcher, Suchir Balaji, was found dead in his San Francisco apartment in recent weeks, CNBC has confirmed.
- Balaji left OpenAI earlier this year and raised concerns publicly that the company had allegedly violated U.S. copyright law while developing its popular ChatGPT chatbot."
- "The manner of death has been determined to be suicide,"
- The San Francisco Police Department said in an e-mail that on the afternoon of Nov. 26, officers were called to an apartment on Buchanan Street to conduct a "wellbeing check." They found a deceased adult male, and discovered "no evidence of foul play" in their initial investigation, the department said.

Earnings
- Adobe shares fell 13% on Thursday and headed for their steepest drop since March after the software vendor issued disappointing revenue guidance.
- Sales in the fiscal first quarter will be between $5.63 billion and $5.68 billion, Adobe said in its fourth-quarter earnings report late Wednesday. Analysts on average were expecting revenue of $5.73 billion
- Analysts at TD Cowen downgraded the stock to hold from buy, while Wells Fargo kept its buy rating following what it called a "frustrating '24" for the company. The stock is now down 20% for the year
- AI hype/hope unrealized

Social Security Benefits Benefit?
- Last month, the House of Representatives on Nov. 12 passed the Social Security Fairness Act by an overwhelming 327 to 75 majority.
- The proposal would eliminate rules that reduce Social Security benefits for those who also receive income from public pensions, roughly around 2.8 million people.
- Senate needs to vote - but this would be adding to the deficit and that is not a popular side right now.
- Needs to rush this along so that Biden can pass it

Interesting
- The U.K. is drawing up measures to regulate the use of copyrighted content by tech companies to train their artificial intelligence models.
- The British government on Tuesday kicked off a consultation which aims to increase clarity for both the creative industries and AI developers when it comes to both how intellectual property is obtained and then used by AI firms for training purposes.

 

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

2024 - DH Closest to The Pin Cup - Up and Running

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -
PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

 

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

 

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Big – Run – Crypto Pops and Drops

Stacking the Admin with $$$ Peeps

HUGE Baseball Deal

Equifax Class Action – Finally a payout?

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign...

Warm-Up
- Big - Run - Crypto Pops and Drops
- Stacking the Admin with $$$ Peeps
- Baseball Deal
- Equifax Class Action - Finally a payout?

Markets
- Employment Report
- This week's CPI and PPI Data
- Santa Rally - Could be just be a couple weeks away

- - Trump Limericks (AI)

ANNOUNCING the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup

Michael Bowling
Kirk Saathoff
Eric Harvey
Chad Laajala
Tim Dewey
Paul Kinder
Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner)
---Emails have gone out...

Regarding AMD
- BofA Securities downgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to Neutral from Buy, lower CY25/26 pf-EPS by 6%/8%ta $4.43/55.51, about -13%/-23% below consensus 55.09/57.11. Two factors:
1) Higher competitive risks in Al against best-of-breed NVDA's dominance, and growing cloud preference for custom chips from MRVL/AVGO. limiting AMD's market share gain potential, and
2) Potential for 1H'25E PC processor correction, after ~4O% HoH surge in AMD's 2H'24E client PC sales.  Shares are down 3%.

Oracle Earnings
- Oracle (ORCL -8%) is lower following its Q2 (Nov) earnings report last night.
- The company reported a slight EPS miss, its second miss in the past three quarters.
- Revenue rose 8.6% yr/yr to $14.06 bln, but that was also a bit light of analyst expectations.
- The Q3 (Feb) adjusted EPS guidance of $1.47-1.51 was also lower than expected.
- Oracle guided to Q3 revs of +7-9% (+9-11% CC), which we compute as $14.21-14.48 bln, which was also light, partly due to FX.

Google Chip
- Releases the Willow quantum computing chip
- Google has unveiled a new chip which it claims takes five minutes to solve a problem that would currently take the world's fastest super computers ten septillion – or 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years – to complete.
- However experts say Willow is, for now, a largely experimental device, meaning a quantum computer powerful enough to solve a wide range of real-world problems is still years - and billions of dollars - away.

MLB Deal
- The Mets on Sunday agreed to sign Juan Soto to a 15-year, $765 million contract, multiple sources said, by far the largest pact in Major League Baseball history.
- The deal, which the Mets have not confirmed because it’s pending a physical, contains a $75 million signing bonus, an opt-out after five seasons and no deferred money.
- The Mets will have the ability to void Soto’s opt-out clause after the 2029 season if they boost the average annual value of the final 10 years of his deal from $51 million to $55 million, according to a source.
- In that case, the overall deal would be for 15 years and $805 million
- Right and Left Fielder - with .288 Batting average
- In 2024, he hit 41 homers and had 129 walks. It was his fourth season with at least 25 home runs and 125 walks. That's fourth-most in MLB history, behind only Barry Bonds (10 such seasons), Babe Ruth (10) and Ted Williams (eight).

China - Back in the Spotlight
- Disinflation again and profits slowing - China's inflation drops
- China's producer price index declined for the 26th month. Producer inflation fell by 2.5% year on year in November...
- Sunday announcement - China's leaders on Monday pledged "more proactive" fiscal measures and "moderately" looser monetary policy next year to boost domestic consumption, according to an official readout of a key policy meeting that outlined upcoming economic priorities.
Hing Kong markets flying again and several stocks on the move
- PDD   11%   NIO  15%   FUTU 23%   NTES 11%   BABA 8.5%   BIDU  9.6%

Just in...(Started in 2017)
- The Equifax Data Breach Settlement Agreement says any remaining funds in the Consumer Restitution Fund will be distributed to Settlement Class Members with valid claims.
- You have a valid claim and are eligible for an additional payment. It will be sent to you by electronic pre-paid card. (Email just arrived....)

Employment Report
- The latest employment data likely cemented another interest-rate reduction by the Federal Reserve later this month but did little to clarify the monetary-policy outlook for 2025.
- 4.2% Unemployment Rate
- 4.5% wage growth
- Better than though additions to the payrolls
- Overall, it looks like it was a reasonably good report - HOWEVER - some cracks beneath the surface with minority jobs

Jobs Report

Fed Meeting Dec 18th
- 89% probability of a 0.25% rate cut
- Fed has its back to the wall - markets are dictating
- No reason to believe that they need a cut, although the would not want to worry markets or surprise them in any way
- All reporting shows that they will do the cut, back off a little as to the amount of potential cuts coming in recognition of the fact that the economy is still running well

Trump Cabinet $$$$
- 11 picks are billionaires
- $340 billion total net worth
--- Big chunk is Musk
- Wealthiest administration in US History - by a long shot
-- 3 more billionaires in the works
- "CORRUPT ELITE" of Biden admin was only worth a total $118 Billion

Trump News (Get used to it)
- Now Trump says that he will not try to replace Jerome Powell
- On Meet The Press he said: "No, I don't think so. I don't see it,"
- "I think if I told him to [go], he would. But if I asked him to, he probably wouldn't," Trump told Welker.

Trump EV Action
- Donald Trump's transition team is considering canceling the U.S. Postal Service's contracts to electrify its delivery fleet, as part of a broader suite of executive orders targeting electric vehicles, according to three sources familiar with the plans.
--- WHY????
- Osh Kosh and Ford are the main providers of the EV trucks for the Postal Service.
---Multi Billion $$ contracts

Last One
- Trump aides contact Google, Meta, Snap over online drug sales
- President-elect Donald Trump's transition team has invited five major tech companies, including Google , Microsoft  and Meta Platforms to a meeting in mid-December about dealing with online sales of drugs
- This looks like non-prescription/illegal drug sales

Retail Sales - Roundup
- Final Tally - Record-breaking sales reported
- Amazon saw the strongest growth on Black Friday
- Americans spent roughly $10.8 billion online on Black Friday
- Shein, Temu also post strong results

UNH
- Interesting how this is all becoming a thing
--- Erupted into a real awakening about the health insurance industry
- NYPD at press conference says person of interest named Luigi Mangione is in custody for murder of UNH executive Brian Thompson
- Murder charges filed

TikTok
- Court upholds requirement for the divestment
- A federal appeals court upheld a law requiring China-based ByteDance to sell the popular social media app TikTok or face an effective ban in the United States
- The U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C., rejected TikTok’s argument that the ban is unconstitutional and violates the First Amendment rights of the 170 million Americans who use the app.
- Unanimous Ruling

Bribery!
- A subsidiary of top global consulting firm McKinsey & Company agreed to pay nearly $123 million to settle claims that it bribed government officials in South Africa, the U.S. Department of Justice said Thursday.
- Federal prosecutors also unsealed a 2022 guilty plea by Vikas Sagar, a former senior partner at McKinsey who worked in the subsidiary's South Africa office.
- The subsidiary, McKinsey Africa, paid bribes to officials at two state-controlled utility companies in South Africa between 2012 and 2016 in order to secure lucrative consulting contracts, the DOJ said in a press release.
- Reminds of the Adani situation

Bad Sandwich?
- A new lawsuit accuses Subway of "grossly misleading" customers by advertising sandwiches that contain at least three times more meat than it delivers.
- According to a proposed class action filed on Monday in federal court in Brooklyn, Subway ads for its Steak & Cheese sandwich show layers of meat piled high, reaching about as high as the surrounding hero bread.
- In reality, according to several photos in the complaint, the fast-food chain's sandwiches are far more bread than filling.
- Similar lawsuits filed in the same court by the plaintiff's law firm against McDonald's, Wendy's and Taco Bell were dismissed last year.
- Subway previously defended for more than four years against a lawsuit claiming its "footlong" sandwiches were too short.
--------------That lawsuit was dismissed in 2017.
No Sleep
- A new stock exchange launching next year is on track to offer nearly round-the-clock trading on business days, pending final regulatory approvals
- The 24X National Exchange will debut in the second half of 2025, with trading from 4:00 a.m. ET to 7:00 p.m. ET on weekdays, the Stamford, Connecticut-based platform said. That can be expanded to 8:00 p.m. ET on Sunday through 7:00 p.m. ET on Friday, with a one-hour pause each day, once the exchange clears some final hurdles with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

 

- - More Musk
- Elon Musk lost his bid to have his $56 billion 2018 pay package reinstated
- A Delaware judge upheld her January ruling in a case brought by shareholders that said the process leading to approval of the pay package was “deeply flawed.”

End Of Year - What to do with OLD stock picks?

 

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

2024 - DH Closest to The Pin Cup - Up and Running

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -
PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

 

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

TRUMP (AI) Limerick

There once was a man named Trump,
Who governed with flair and a stump.
With tweets quite unfiltered,
And policies tilted,
He sure made the headlines all jump!

 

There once was a man named Trump,
Whose ego was known to be plump.
With bluster and flare,
He'd claim he was fair,
But left many folks in a slump!

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Very Business friendly cabinet

Market rotation continues – now it is back into the big-caps

Consumers – WOW! – Spend Spend Spend

Black Friday and Cyber Monday updates

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign...

Warm-Up
- Very Business friendly cabinet
- Market rotation continues - now it is back into the big-caps
- Consumers - WOW! - Spend Spend Spend
- Black Friday and Cyber Monday updates

Markets
- November - the best month of the year!
- New highs and predictions for a 5% December
- USD is on the rise - bond yields ease.
- Bitcoin can't seem to breach $100k

ANNOUNCING the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup

Michael Bowling
Kirk Saathoff
Eric Harvey
Chad Laajala
Tim Dewey
Paul Kinder
Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner)

Saying goodbye to legend - Art Cashin
- Pillar of the exchange
- He was on the TDI Podcast - LINK

Marshall Law
- South Korean President Yoon declares martial law:
- Says through martial law he will rebuild a free and democratic country
- Government administration has been paralyzed because of opposition party conducts
- Says he will eradicate pro-North forces and protect constitutional order
- Marshall Law lifted - but a good amount of confusion remains

Consumers on a Rampage
- Adobe said that in the U.S., consumers made a record-breaking $10.8 billion of purchases, up 10.2% on last year.
- Cyber Monday sales reached $13.5 bln, ahead of initial expectations
- Quick Amazon vs Costco Story - Looking for UPS backup - Same model on Amazon (Cyber Monday Deal) $179 - Costco $129
- Buy now, pay later plans helped finance purchases, driving 8.8% more in online spend than last year
- But... Not so much IN-STORE: Overall, store traffic on Black Friday was down 3.2%, with footfall down 7% in the Midwest, 2.1% in the Northeast, 3.5% in the South and 3.2% in the West

Retail
- Consumer discretionary stocks are on fire
- People are buying - alot of stuff
- Abercrombie & Fitch issued strong holiday guidance last week after posting its sixth straight quarter of double-digit sales growth and another quarter of results that topped expectations.
- Gap issued good guidance as well
- RTH ETF - (Retail) all time high (Amazon, Costco, Home Depot, WalMart etc)

On the Other hand....
- Electronics provider Best Buy on Tuesday cut its full-year sales forecast as it missed Wall Street's quarterly revenue expectations and a fresh batch of iPhones and AI-enabled laptops weren't enough to drive higher sales.
- The consumer electronics retailer said it now expects full-year revenue to range from $41.1 billion to $41.5 billion, compared to prior guidance of $41.3 billion to $41.9 billion.
- It expects full-year comparable sales to decline by between 2.5% and 3.5%, compared to its prior expectations of a 1.5% to 3% drop.

Year Top Date Scorecard

S&P Sector Scorecard

AI
- Amazon announced it would invest an additional $4 billion in Anthropic, the artificial intelligence startup founded by ex-OpenAI research executives.
- The new funding brings the tech giant's total investment to $8 billion, though Amazon will retain its position as a minority investor, according to Anthropic, the San Francisco-based startup behind the Claude chatbot and AI model.
- Amazon Web Services will also become Anthropic's "primary cloud and training partner,"
- Amazon does not have a seat on Anthropic's board.

AI - Immigration
- A signature campaign promise of President-elect Donald Trump is to initiate mass deportations of undocumented residents of the United States.
- At a Sept. 12 campaign stop in Tucson, Arizona, Trump promised to "begin the largest mass deportation mission in the history of our country."
- Incoming (selected) Boarder Czar
- Talk of using AI for Mass Deportation - Facial Rec and what

AI AI
- Elon Musk is asking a federal court to stop OpenAI from converting into a fully for-profit business.
- Attorneys representing Musk, his AI startup xAI, and former OpenAI board member Shivon Zilis filed for a preliminary injunction against OpenAI on Friday. The injunction would also stop OpenAI from allegedly requiring its investors to refrain from funding competitors, including xAI and others.

Musk - Poor Elon
- Tesla chief executive Elon Musk's record-breaking $56bn (£47bn) pay award will not be reinstated, a judge has ruled.
- The decision in the Delaware court comes after months of legal wrangling and despite it being approved by shareholders and directors in the summer.
- Judge Kathaleen McCormick upheld her previous decision from January, in which she argued that board members were too heavily influenced by Mr Musk.

One More AI
- At AWS re:Invent, Amazon Web Services, Inc. (AWS), an Amazon.com, Inc. company (NASDAQ: AMZN), today announced that Twelve Labs, a startup that uses multimodal artificial intelligence (AI) to bring human-like understanding to video content, is building and scaling its proprietary foundation models on AWS.
- Twelve Labs will use AWS technologies to accelerate the development of its foundation models that map natural language to what's happening inside a video.
- This includes actions, objects, and background sounds, allowing developers to create applications that can search through videos, classify scenes, summarize, and split video clips into chapters.

More Threats
- This will be a standard for the next few year so get used to it
- BRICS
- President-elect Donald Trump on Saturday threatened 100% tariffs against a bloc of nine nations if they act to undermine the U.S. dollar.
- His threat was directed at countries in the so-called BRIC alliance, which consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.
--- YET he is all on on Bitcoin? How is that not undermining the US Dollar.

DJIA - Best month in a year
- WOW! Banks popped, small caps, mid caps and pretty much every asset class
- Emerging markets lagged as the USD moved higher
- Rates moved down

 

 

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

2024 - DH Closest to The Pin Cup Coming Soon!

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -
PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

 

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

 

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Where are all the smokers these days?

DOGE – making promises.

We are all turkeys – just gullible for every comment and promise.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along...

Twitter - How you like the AI generated cover art? (May need to come to DHUnplugged to see all)

Warm-Up
- Where are all the smokers these days?
- DOGE - making promises
- High level indictment
- We are all turkeys - just gullible for every comment and promise

Markets
-#endthefed making the rounds
- Treasury Secretary?
- Target earnings surprise
- Black Friday - will that boost retail?
- New Phrase - Mullet Market

Thanksgiving - What is going to be on the Dvorak table?

ANNOUNCING the CTP Winner for Carvana

Mullet Market
- No, the fish...
- Steady benchmarks in the front, crypto party in the back

Netflix Again
- Netflix notches 70 million monthly active users on ad-supported plan
- 250 million subs and 70 million on ad plan
- Didn't we used to call this TV? Made a full circle except that ad-based also has a monthly fee
- Over 50% of the new sign ups are ads based plans

Smokers
- Retail cigarette sales in China have been growing for the past 4 years, reaching 2.44 trillion sticks in 2023, data from Euromonitor showed. The research group forecasts that sales will continue to increase annually, hitting 2.48 trillion by 2028.
- Euromonitor added that growth has coincided with the increasing popularity of "slim" cigarettes, often advertised as "low-tar," and various types of flavored cigarettes.
- Between 2019 and 2023, annual worldwide sales of cigarette sticks fell by about 2.7% to 5.18 trillion, according to Euromonitor data.
At more than 300 million, China has the most cigarette smokers in the world, making up nearly a third of the world's total smokers, according to the World Health Organization.

Topic of Discussion
- #endthefed
- Do you think that Musk and Trump and the new gang will try to end the Fed?
- Elon endorsed the idea of the President being able to intervene on monetary policy.
- Seems like that will undermine the independence and then the confidence in the Fed
-- Going to be some fireworks with Powell saying he will not resign and cannot be fired

DOGE - Dept of Government Efficiency
- Still a hardy har name - like saying Penis when in 3rd grade
- Incoming Department of Government Efficiency wants to create new mobile application for Americans to file taxes for free with IRS, according to Washington Post (Intuit and HR Block down on this...)
- Explain how a government agency that does not exist is making these kinds of statements.
--- Thought: Make these statements and either buy or short stocks? (Again we are all turkeys - hopefully not going to be led to slaughter)

Higher rates
- Rates are running higher after the election - actually up to the election ran up from 3.6% to 4.6% and nor in the range
- DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Thursday interest rates could shoot higher as the Republicans ended up controlling the House, securing a governing trifecta that gives President-elect Donald Trump free rein to spend as he pleases.
- Pre-election: "If the House goes to Republicans, there's going to be a lot of debt, there's going to be higher interest rates at the long end, and it'll be interesting to see how the Fed reacts to that," Gundlach said
- If the Trump administration extends the 2017 tax cuts or introduces new reductions, it could add significant amount to the nation's debt in the next few years, worsening the already troublesome fiscal picture.

Yeah Right....
- Vocal critic of Putin, Vladimir Shklyarov, 39, died after falling from the fifth floor of an apartment building on Saturday.
- The fall was said to have been ‘accidental’.
- Local reports suggest he was trying to escape from his apartment - after his ex-wife locked him in there at his request to stop him from buying drugs.

OH WOW
- India's Adani Group saw shares of its companies plunge Thursday after its billionaire chairman Gautam Adani was indicted in a New York federal court over his alleged involvement in an extensive bribery and fraud operation.
- The 62-year-old billionaire and the seven other defendants have been accused of paying over $250 million in bribes to Indian government officials to secure solar energy contracts that could generate more than $2 billion in profits.
- That is something.....

Target
- Target missed third-quarter earnings and revenue estimates and cut its full-year guidance.
- Target struggled to drive sales even after reducing prices on thousands of items.
- The results come a day after Walmart beat Wall Street expectations and hiked its outlook.
- The big-box retailer reversed course and cut its full-year profit guidance, just three months after hiking that forecast.
- It said it expects full-year adjusted earnings per share to range from $8.30 to $8.90.
- That’s lower than the $9 to $9.70 per share range that it shared in August and below the $9.55 a share expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount.
---- That means that things are slowing down at a very

Advanced Auto Parts
- What happened to this amazing business?
- Advance Auto Parts is closing more than 700 locations to shore up the company’s finances following another dismal earnings report.
-The car parts retailer, which has about 5,000 stores, said Thursday that the closures are part of its “strategic plan to improve business performance.”
- Stock was a darling as high as $240 in January 2022 - now trades near $40

RFK Jr
- Maybe he has some residual from the brain work form 2010 that gave him brain fog and had trouble with word retrieval and short-term memory
- ANYWAY - word on the street is that he could recommend removing fluoride from the water system.
- On the good side of this - Dental supply company Henry Schein (HSIC) is up on the idea as this could lead to a boom in dental visits.

Jersey Mikes - Feel good story...
- Blackstone buys company
- Valued at 8 Billion
- CEO bought the sub shop at 17 with the help of his football coach

Walmart
- Earnings last week - wow company firing on all cylinders
- This notion that the consumer is hurting looks like a way just to sandbag earnings (Lowes, Home Depot)
- Company is upbeat on consumer spending
- Takes us back to the inflation discussion into the future.

Black Friday
- Once again we are here - what do we buy?
- Black Friday has long been a cornerstone of the global shopping calendar.
- In 2023, Black Friday sales in the U.S. totaled $9.8 billion.
- This year, projections indicate sales will reach $10.8 billion, a 9.9% increase from 2023.
- Where to find the best deals????

NVDA Earnings
- After a quarter where Nvidia's sales nearly doubled, investors and analysts are wondering how long the chipmaker can keep this kind of growth going now that it has a $140 billion annual revenue run rate.
- Basic, company did well, there was a range of the revenue that was an issues and some could have seen it as soft.

Dell Earnings
- Company issues downside guidance
- Company also says that multiple tailwinds are heading into 2025 as AI demand is still there.
- Growth primarily from AI servers, then traditional severs and storage.
- Stock down 10%

Home sales
- Just before rates moved up in October...
- Sales of previously owned homes last month rose 3.4% from September to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 3.96 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors.
- Sales were 2.9% higher than October of last year, marking the first annual increase in more than three years.
- There were 1.37 million units for sale at the end of October, an increase of 19.1% from October 2023.

Google
- Alphabet says DOJ "filed a staggering proposal that seeks dramatic changes to Google services"
- Stock down 6% last Thursday on this news and the whispers that it is not clear if DJT term will change these anti-trust actions
- This extreme proposal would: Endanger the security and privacy of millions of Americans, and undermine the quality of products people love, by forcing the sale of Chrome and potentially Android. Require disclosure to unknown foreign and domestic companies of not just Google's innovations and results, but even more troubling, Americans' personal search queries. Chill our investment in artificial intelligence, perhaps the most important innovation of our time, where Google plays a leading role. Hurt innovative services, like Mozilla's Firefox, whose businesses depend on charging Google for Search placement. Deliberately hobble people's ability to access Google Search. Mandate government micromanagement of Google Search and other technologies by appointing a "Technical Committee" with enormous power over your online experience."

In Closing
- Crypto investor Justin Sun paid $6.2 million for a banana duct-taped to a wall.
- Sotheby’s auctioned off the infamous piece of work titled “Comedian,” created by Italian artist and cultural prankster Maurizio Cattelan.
- Sun will get a roll of duct tape, instructions on how to “install” the banana and a certificate of authenticity guaranteeing it as an original work, but the banana is not included, since it will rot.

Airlines - Rip Off
- Because they believe we are turkeys....
- A Senate subcommittee on Tuesday slammed U.S. airlines large and small over fees to pick seats on flights.
- Between 2018 and 2023 American, Delta, United, Spirit and Frontier brought in $12.4 billion in seating fees, including for seats with extra legroom as well as those in "preferred" locations that are closer to the front of the plane, or window or aisle seats, said the report from the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations.

In time for the holidays
- Walmart on Monday confirmed that it's ending some of its diversity initiatives, removing some LGBTQ-related merchandise from its website and winding down a nonprofit that funded programs for minorities.
- Other companies in the news recently are also pulling back from DEI efforts and even eliminating DEI roles and initiatives internally.

 

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Announcing the Winner
The Closest to The Pin - Carvana (CVNA)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -
PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

 

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

 

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Wild ride for markets – election movers and groovers.

Fed dousing the fire a bit.

Inflation is still a thing.

Nuke talk again….

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along...

Warm-Up
- Up and Down - Election Confusing Markets - What a wild ride - more to come
- CTP for Carvana will be closing out this coming Friday and that is it for 2024 - CTP Cup comes in December
- More hacks that no one cares about
- Another big bankruptcy
- Nuke talks again

Markets
- Up and down - shine off that penny?
- Every pick / comment brings on new move
- Fed pours some cold water on markets
- Inflation - still a thing
- Something happening - only happened a few times in history

ANNOUNCEMENT : AH - Chili Competition Results - 3rd Place

Netflix - Jake Paul (27) and Mike Tyson (58)
- 60 million people "tried" to watch
- Glitches - system overload
- Jake Paul took it in a 8 round decision.
- Can you imagine if Netflix starts doing these live events with a $1 charge?
- Jake Paul got $40M and Tyson got $20M

Follow Up
- Palantir - Jumps after earnings and then announcing move to NASDAQ (Nov 26)
- As of last Friday - #1 performer in S&P 500 this year
- Up 48% MTD and 250% YTD
- Big move Friday was because it will qualify for NAZ 100 (QQQ) and lots of buying will need to be done
- Good for Peter: Thiel's Palantir holdings have increased in value by about $3.2 billion since the earnings report and $2 billion since the election.

Once Hot -Now Not
- Here is company that we had for clients -bought low, sold higher, bought some more higher, sold on way down
- Super Micro - SMCI - was a darling for some time - then a few short sellers attacked - stock sold off
- Company decided to follow the other guys with 10-1 stock spilts - stock was as high as $1,200 per share pre split- now??? $21.75 ($217.50 comparable)
- Could be kicked out of NASDAQ
- Short -Sellers couldbe right - Super Micro is late in filing its 2024 year-end report with the SEC, and has yet to replace its accounting firm.
--- UPDATE - Super Micro Computer secures BDO USA as lead auditor, targets key filings by early 2025 amid NASDAQ approval process (Stock up 25%)

Markets - Not Often Seen
- The stock market has done this only three times since January 1871
- The Shiller P/E ratio has reached a reading of 38 only three times during a bull market rally in 153 years. In December 1999, during the dot-com boom, the Shiller P/E peaked at a reading of 44.19. Meanwhile, in the first week of 2022, it very briefly lifted above 40.
- On most occasions, this heat needs to be cooled... It could take time as this is a slow moving ratio/indicator
- Another point - only a few times in history have we seen a market up 20% - 2 consecutive years.
--- Will it continue? History shows that this needs to cool off too - but that does not mean a crash is imminent.

More Cooling
- Russell 2000 was HOT right after the election.
- Day after it was up like 5%+++
- Last week, down 4%

Hack'd
- Hackers linked to a Chinese intelligence agency were able to breach T-Mobile as part of a months-long campaign to spy on the cellphone communications of high-value intelligence targets
- Last Wednesday, The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the U.S. cyber watchdog agency CISA said China-linked hackers have intercepted surveillance data intended for American law enforcement agencies after breaking into an unspecified number of telecom companies.
- Earlier in October, the Journal reported that Chinese hackers accessed the networks of U.S. broadband providers, including Verizon Communications, AT&T and Lumen Technologies, and obtained information from systems the federal government uses for court-authorized wiretapping.- Does anyone care? OR are we just okay with anyone having all of our information?

What is with the Nuke Talk?
- President Biden has given Ukraine the green light to use powerful American long-range weapons for strikes inside Russia, a U.S. official told NPR on Sunday.
- The missiles, known as the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, can travel about 190 miles. Their use would enable Ukrainian troops to strike Russia's weapons stockpiles, logistical centers and airfields — which could help stop Russian forces from advancing on the battlefield and attacking Ukrainian cities.
- This war going to end?
- All of a sudden US "allows" long range missiles to be used in Ukraine
- Vladimir Putin has approved changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, setting out new conditions under which the country would consider using its arsenal.
- The doctrine now says an attack from a non-nuclear state, if backed by a nuclear power, will be treated as a joint assault on Russia.

Tech Heat
- Nvidia - The Information reported that NVDA's flagship AI GPU platform, Blackwell, is experiencing overheating issues when installed in high-capacity server racks, housings found in data centers that support many servers, routers, storage units, etc.
- Jim Cramer came out with a defense in that the report was done at a tie that NVDA can't respond because it is in a quiet period ahead of 11/20/2024 earnings. (meanwhile Jensen Huang is out on the road giving speeches - so not sure this defense holds water)
- Cramer also said Michael Dell is out with comments that they are still installing and that they know it is a hot operating environment that needs to be water cooled and cold conditions
- Inother words, Cramer is bullish - SURPRISE!

Tesla
- Election beneficiary
- Elon seems to know how to properly manipulate a situation
- Been grabbing heaps of $ from government since the beginning - why stop now?
- What does Elon want? FSD:
--- Tesla shares jumped on Monday following a report that President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team is planning to make a federal framework to regulate self-driving vehicles a top priority for the U.S. Transport Department.
- AT LEAST THAT IS THE NEWS  - TRUMP TRANSITION TEAM DID NOT VERIFY

DOGE
- Department of Government Efficiency
- HARDY HAR HAR - big 5th grade belly laugh
- Musk and Vivek being put on (supposedly) to the DOGE committee (that does not exist as of yet) to cut government expenses
- Monday: Trump advisers and GOP lawmakers eye cuts to Medicaid, food stamps to fund tax cuts extension
--- Seriously??

DOGE Coin
- Jumps bigly after election - up 100% since election

Bitcoin
- Up Up Up
- Bitcoin clears $93,000 for a bit, drops and then rocks back up
- Thoughts that it will be less regulation and who knows.

Election Wreck
- Shares of vaccine makers fell on Thursday on reports that President-elect Donald Trump is expected to nominate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic, to lead the Department of Health and Human Services.
- The stocks fell in the final hour of trading as reports emerged about Trump's expected pick. Moderna's stock closed more than 5% lower on Thursday, shares of Novavax fell more than 7% and Pfizer's stock ended more than 2% lower.
- This is going to be interesting to watch - plenty of winners and losers going to happen

Fed - Cold Water
- Last Thursday - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that strong U.S. economic growth will allow policymakers to take their time in deciding how far and how fast to lower interest rates.
-"The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said in remarks for a speech to business leaders in Dallas. "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully."
- The Fed is in a predicament - with tariffs and potential tax breaks, deregulation.
- All is good for growth - but the concern is that it will also spark inflation
- "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said in remarks for a speech to business leaders in Dallas. "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully."
- Markets are pricing in 0.25% cut in December - but it looks like the potential for a pause from there. (Wait and see)

AMD
- Does this sound like a company that is making big strides in AI?
- Last week, AMD said that it will lay off 4% of its global staff, as the longtime CPU maker seeks to gain a stronger foothold in the growing artificial intelligence chip space dominated by Nvidia.
- "As a part of aligning our resources with our largest growth opportunities, we are taking a number of targeted steps that will unfortunately result in reducing our global workforce by approximately 4%," an AMD representative said in a statement. "We are committed to treating impacted employees with respect and helping them through this transition."
- 1000 employees

Spirit Airlines
- After years of financial losses and a failed merger attempt, Spirit Airlines filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Monday.
- The low-cost carrier announced it has reached a deal with its bondholders to restructure its debts — and expects to continue flying as normal during the bankruptcy process. The airline says it will continue to honor all tickets, credits and loyalty points.
- "The most important thing to know is that you can continue to book and fly now and in the future," the Florida-based carrier said in an open letter to its customers.
- They need to say that as most people will be worried - but the fact is that this is standard procedure
- Bondholders will get big haircut and the common stock should be wiped out....
- AH is flying Spirit on Friday.....

Lowes Earnings
- same pitch, modest beat and concern about the outlook
- Consumers are being more selective and looking at pricing
- Stock was up pre-market, but fell on reality

Disney
- Disney reported a nice quarter last week
- Revenue for the entertainment segment – which includes the traditional TV networks, direct-to-consumer streaming and films – increased 14% year over year.
- During Disney’s fiscal 2025, the company expects high-single-digit adjusted earnings growth compared with the prior fiscal year.
- Good performance this year as they are trying to clean up the massive problems they have had - bloated---However, there are still many that believe that DID has big problems long-term. (Stock up 25% YTD and 18% MTD)
- Earnings per share: $1.14 adjusted vs. $1.10 expected    Revenue: $22.57 billion vs. $22.45 billion expected

Bird Flu
- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday confirmed that a person contracted bird flu in a case linked to an outbreak that sickened thousands of birds in a Clackamas County commercial poultry operation.
- Public health officials declined to provide details about the person, name the operation or other details. They also said there is no evidence of bird flu spreading from person to person and the risk to the public is low.

Poor Rudy
- Rudy Giuliani has relinquished dozens of watches and a Mercedes once owned by movie star Lauren Bacall to two former Georgia election workers who won a $148 million defamation judgment, his lawyer said.
-Joseph Cammarata said in a letter filed late Friday in Manhattan federal court that the trove of watches and a ring were delivered by FedEx to a bank in Atlanta, Georgia, in the morning.
-The 1980 Mercedes-Benz SL 500 was turned over at an address in Hialeah, Florida, and an undisclosed amount of funds from Giuliani’s Citibank accounts were also surrendered to the two women who won the judgment, according to the letter.
- Will he get pardoned?

 

 

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

ANNOUNCING
The Closest to The Pin - Carvana (CVNA)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -
PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

 

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

 

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Looking back at some of the funnier and more memorable episodes.

Focusing n a few specific topics from years ago.

Thank you Ryan for putting this together.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along...

Thanks again to the great Ryan Rediske for putting this episode together!

This is a DH Unplugged chronicle of the rise and fall of the Facebook initial public offering; a cautionary tale of hubris and hype that ended with chaos, panic and scandal.

Episode 139, February 7th, 2012, the Facebook IPO is announced with great expectations. John C Dvorak, our tech hero, makes two courageous and bold predictions. Andrew Horowitz, our financial wizard, combines his unmatched insight with his extensive analysis skills to summarize the fundamentals.

April 11th, Facebook buys Instagram. John mentions a lost opportunity and Andrew questions the logic.

May 3rd, The Instagram purchase is analyzed further. Begun, the patent wars have.

May 10th, Facebook alters their S1. Pray they do not alter the deal further. John announces special Facebook Friday. Andrew foreshadows with concerns.

May 16th, The price rises, the revenue falls. John is cheap faked for humorous effect. Andrew offers sage IPO purchase advice.

May 23rd, John admires a Facebook hit piece. Andrew sheds light on some potentially shady underwriting.

May 23rd, Andrew shorts Facebook. John lavishes him with praise.

May 30th, John predicts law suits. Andrew senses foul play and greed.

August 1st, Facebook stock plays limbo; how low can they go? Guess who they blame?

September 5th, A major firm downgrades Facebook and Andrew predicts a short squeeze.

October 10th, Facebook makes the cover of Barons.

 

We join our heroes in the spring of 2011, discussing the potential for round three of the federal reserve's quantitative easing program to buy bonds and lower interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy.

Episode 105, April 14th, Morgan Stanley estimates US GDP. John uses the words "bull crap".

April 21st, The fed considers doubling down with a mediocre hand. Our dynamic duo sees this for what it really is.

May 25th, Andrew displays an exercise in mental acuity. John lands an impressive judo chop.

June 22nd, Bernanke to host an unprecedented "ask me anything" for his fans. Will it work?

August 3rd, John shares his take. Andrew asks an important question about QE3.

August 10th, Andrew analyzes an unexpected outcome. John says "interesting".

September 21st, Our beloved hosts argue about the origin of twist and shout. John refrains from using the word scam.

Episode 142, February 29th, 2012, Andrew finds a curious correlation. John offers a heartfelt apology. To himself.

June 13th, Quantitative easing efficacy is questioned.

September 5th, Andrew reaffirms Q E 3 still makes no sense.

September 19th, John gets an idea. Andrew speculates that the federal reserve indulges in recreational drug use.

December 12th, John tells a joke. Andrew says unlimited beer is stupid.

 

 

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

The Closest to The Pin - Carvana (CVNA)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -
PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

 

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

 

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Can we get this election over with already?

Markets pricing in a perfect gridlock scenario.

Earnings season rolling along – good and bad news for stocks.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along...

Warm-Up
- Yields - Highest in months - ahead of Fed decision (tomorrow)
- Drones - will they deliver?
- October ends on a down note

Markets
- Optimism (Hysteria) ahead of (final) Election results
- Oil on the move again - Middle East tensions
- Mixed results from earnings - but still a generally good look for the main players
- What does Berkshire know?
- Big DJIA Announcement

AH - Chili Competition this weekend - reining champion - have to defend the title...

Employment Situation
- ADP said private companies hired 233,000 new workers in the month, better than the upwardly revised 159,000 in September and far ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 113,000.
- Nonfarm payrolls were up just 12,000 in October (Briefing.com consensus 120,000)
- Nonfarm private payrolls decreased by 28,000 (Briefing.com consensus 105,000)
-- These numbers were depressed by the Boeing strike and likely by the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, yet with forecasts suggesting those influences could lop off something on the order of 100,000 positions, the view to October, coupled with sizable downward revisions to the August and September payroll figures, connotes softness in hiring activity.
- Unemployment rate stood at 4.1% - no change

US GDP
- Gross domestic product increased at a 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter, below the 3.1% estimate and the 3.0% reading Q2.
- Consumer spending and federal government outlays were two of the biggest contributors to GDP growth.
- The release comes with the Federal Reserve poised to lower interest rates further despite the seemingly strong economy and inflation that remains above target.

Palantir Earnings
-Back-to-back quarters delivered beats on its top and bottom lines in Q3 and forecasted upbeat Q4 revenue figures.
- PLTR's top line continued to accelerate, advancing by 30% yr/yr to $725.52 mln, supporting its improving profitability, with non-GAAP EPS expanding by 43% yr/yr to $0.10. Total customer count continued to grow nicely, up 39% yr/yr and 6% sequentially to 629.
- U.S. government revenue has been ramping up in recent quarters. However, in Q3, the segment took a giant step forward, growing revs by 40% yr/yr and 15% sequentially to $320 mln, a seven-fold increase compared to the prior year and the best growth rate over the past 15 quarters.
- The commercial side was the showcase in Q3. Like U.S. government, U.S. commercial revs shifted into a higher gear, registering 54% growth yr/yr, up from the +33% delivered last quarter, to $179 mln

AMD Earnings
- Just not good enough
- AMD reported third-quarter results on Tuesday, with earnings in line with forecasts and revenue that slightly beat expectations.
- Here's how the company did, compared to LSEG estimates for the quarter ending Sept. 28:
- Earnings per share: 92 cents adjusted vs. 92 cents expected
- Revenue: $6.82 billion vs. $6.71 billion expected
- AMD said its important data center business doubled in sales for the second quarter in a row, but overall revenue guidance for the fourth quarter was in line with consensus expectations.
- Stock down

Microsoft Earnings
- Microsoft’s revenue grew 16% in its fiscal first quarter, faster than analysts had anticipated.
- Revenue from Azure and other cloud services was up 33%, surpassing estimates.
- Guidance for revenue growth fell short of expectations.

Amazon Earnings
- Could have been the best of the bunch
- Revenue increased 11% in the quarter to $158.9 billion, topping the $157.2 billion estimate of analysts surveyed by LSEG. Earnings of $1.43 topped the average analyst estimate of $1.14.
- Sales in the Amazon Web Services cloud business increased 19% to $27.4 billion, coming in just shy of analysts’ estimates, according to StreetAccount. That was an acceleration from 12% a year ago, but trailed the rate of growth at rivals Microsoft and Googl
- Amazon Ad growth  grew faster than Googles (18.7%)
- Amazon forecast revenue in the current quarter to be between $181.5 billion and $188.5 billion, which would represent growth of 7% to 11% year over year.

Ford Earnings
- Ford guided to the low end of its previously announced 2024 earnings forecast as it slightly topped Wall Street’s third-quarter expectations.
- The automaker now expects adjusted earnings before interest and taxes, or EBIT, of about $10 billion, down from a range of between $10 billion and $12 billion.
- Ford’s third-quarter results were led by its “Pro” commercial and fleet business as well as its traditional operations, known as “Ford Blue.”
- Stock Drops

DJIA Announcement
- INTEL OUT
- NVDIA IN 6X more point movement
- Divisor will change a bit, but still a very big influence in comparison

Bankruptcy
- TGI Fridays -CLOSED
- TGI Fridays franchisees are worried that they could be on the hook for $49.7 million in outstanding customer gift card obligations if the company's bankruptcy doesn't go smoothly, an attorney for franchisees said Monday.
-- Can we talk about the biggest scam going...

More Food News
- Chipotle misses revenue estimates as same-store sales growth disappoints
- Here's what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
--- Earnings per share: 27 cents adjusted vs. 25 cents expected
---- Revenue: $2.79 billion vs. $2.82 billion expected
- The company's food and beverage costs increased during the quarter, in part due to Chipotle's decision to re-emphasize generous portions after social media-fueled backlash over the size of its burrito bowls this summer.

Drones
- Tech Amazon gets FAA approval for new delivery drone as it begins tests in Arizona Published Tue, Nov 5 202412:11 PM EST
- Amazon says it has received approval from the Federal Aviation Administration to fly its newer, smaller delivery drones, including beyond the visual line of sight of pilots.
- The company is planning to ramp up deliveries in a city west of Phoenix, Arizona.
- The Prime Air drone program has been slowly moving forward more than 10 years after Amazon founder Jeff Bezos first conceived of the idea.

Boeing Saga
- Seems that the union is onboard to sign a contract
- 38% pay increase (over several years)
- Boeing will now be able to resume production, key to its recovery since the bulk of the aircraft price is paid when they are handed over to customers. But getting up to target production rates, particularly for the 737 Max, Boeing’s cash cow, will take time.
- But, is the company out of the woods (Stock down 40% YTD)

Meanwhile
- Warren Buffet is selling stocks
- Cash on the rise - selling Apple and BOA
- No Buybacks of Berkshire Hathaway Either
- The Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate saw its cash fortress swell to a record $325.2 billion by the end of September, up from $276.9 billion in the second quarter, according to its earnings report released over the weekend.

New 401k Limits announced
- In its release Friday, the agency increased the employee deferral limit to $23,500, up from $23,000 in 2024. The change applies to workplace plans, including 401(k)s, 403(b)s and most 457 plans, along with the federal Thrift Savings Plan.
- Across plans, the average 401(k) deferral rate was an estimated 7.4% in 2023, according to the same report. The combined savings rate, including employer contributions, was 11.7%, Vanguard found.

 

 

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

ANNOUNCING
The Closest to The Pin - Carvana (CVNA)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -
PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

 

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

 

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Yields important again – rising and worrisome.

Hedge Fund titans getting nervous – talking bout a Minsky Moment.

End of month – October is about to be in the books.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along...

SHHHHH- Leaking some of my own news... eNVESTOLOGY moving to $25,000 minimum in 2025. Currently at $10,000 so if you want to get in to that investment management program with us for the current minimum - now is the time.

Warm-Up
- Yields important again - all of a sudden
- Hedge Fund titans getting nervous - talking bout a Minsky Moment
- End of month - October is about to be in the books

Markets
- Earnings season - Tech is about to bombard us
- Gold near highs as China and India buying
- Election Direction - putting money where mouth is...
- Consumers are happier - UMICH
- NAZ 100 - ATH?

Yields - On the Move

  Yields On The Move

Auto Divergence
- GM puts out some good numbers for recent quarter.
-- GM now expects full-year adjusted EBIT of between $14 billion and $15 billion, or $10 and $10.50 a share, up from between $13 billion and $15 billion, or $9.50 and $10.50.
- This marks the third time this year that GM has updated its guidance after beating Wall Street’s top- and bottom-line expectations, led by the automaker’s North American operations.
-  Ford put out okay numbers, nothing exciting at this point - stock stuck in sideways action
- Big differential with stock performance over past year

GM/FORD YTD

GM/Ford Longer

New Threshold for Capital Gains
- Starting in 2025, single filers will qualify for the 0% long-term capital gains rate with taxable income of $48,350 or less and married couples filing jointly are eligible with $96,700 or less.
- Here is an idea  - for low basis stock - possibly gift to non-dependents that have low income and they can sell at lower capital gains rate
--- Cannot do for dependents as their unearned income above $1,300 is the threshold.

Consumer Sentiment
- October Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final 70.5 vs. 68.9 Briefing.com consensus; October prelim was 68.9
- Markets reacted positively last Friday on this news.
---  Trivia: The University of Michigan (UMich) stopped releasing early versions of its Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) in 2013 as part of an agreement with the New York Attorney General's office. The university had previously received around $1 million a year from Thomson Reuters for this information.

Hedge fund big boys
- Getting nervous - Paul Tudor Jones
- The founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment said he was worried that government spending could cause a big sell-off in the bond market, spiking interest rates higher.
- Debt unsustainable and people just overlooking it
- "Will we have a Minsky moment where all of a sudden there’s a point of recognition that what they’re talking about is fiscally impossible, financially impossible?” Jones said."
- Commented how both candidates are spenders so that is not good - however, hard pressed to think that many of their spending promises will actually go through.

Minsky Moment Defined
- A Minsky moment is a sudden, catastrophic collapse of asset prices after a period of growth and stability. It's named after American economist Hyman Minsky (1911 to 1996), who believed that markets are inherently unstable and long periods of good markets eventually end in larger crises.
- A Minsky moment occurs when excessive debt accumulation becomes unsustainable. Borrowers can no longer meet their debt obligations using their income, leading to a sudden decline in asset prices and a financial crisis. 

Housing Market
- Sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly fell last month, slowing to a pace not seen since 2010, when the U.S. was still recovering from a housing market crash.
- The National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Wednesday reported that existing home sales declined 1% in September from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million, which is a 3.5% drop from one year ago.

Apple Airpods 2
- Hearing aids and hearing testing about to be launched
- Don't know how many people would like to ear all the time - most people will think that you are rude - non-discrete
- People that need hearing aids usually are all worried that it makes them look old and like them to be hidden

One Year Later
- BuyBuy Baby is shutting ALL of its stores after the new owners tried to revive the business
- Now they will be online only
- Perhaps if they paid attention the the pricing of their product they would have a better shot
- Junama Stardust Collection Baby Bassinet Pram $2,500
- on Amazon: Kinder King 2 in 1 Convertible Baby Stroller, Folding High Landscape Infant Carriage, Newborn Reversible Bassinet Pram, Diaper Bag, Anti-Shock Toddler Pushchair Stroller, Dark Grey $129

Fed contradictions - Breaking ranks
- On CNBC last week, Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh discussed the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy and its potential contradictions.
- Kevin, a former Fed Board Governor, expressed his puzzlement over the Fed's 50 basis point cut, arguing that it contradicts their previous statements about their policy.
- He criticized the Fed for not having a clear theory of inflation and for not being data-dependent.
- He also mentioned the Fed's shift in focus from core PCE to core services, excluding housing, and the importance of wages.
- Despite the dissent at the last meeting, Kevin maintained that the Fed members he knows do not play politics.

Earnings to Note
-- American Airlines third-quarter earnings and forecast for the last three months of the year topped analysts' estimates.
-----Earnings per share: 30 cents adjusted vs. 16 cents     Revenue: $13.65 billion vs. $13.49 billion expected
-- Nvidia supplier SK Hynix posts record quarterly profit, beating expectations
-----   Operating profit: 7.03 trillion won ($5.08 billion) vs. 6.8 trillion won      Revenue: 17.57 trillion won ($12.7 billion) vs. 18.11 trillion won
- Tesla shares jump on profit beat, Musk’s prediction of at least 20% ‘vehicle growth’ next year
-----Earnings per share: 72 cents, adjusted vs. 58 cents expected    Revenue: $25.18 billion vs. $25.37 billion expected
-- IBM Earnings
---- IBM missed analysts' estimates for third-quarter revenue on Wednesday, hurt by weakness in its consulting segment as businesses cut back on discretionary expenses, coupled with declines in the infrastructure business.

More Tesla
- Revenue increased 8% in the quarter from $23.35 billion a year earlier.
- Net income rose to about $2.17 billion, or 62 cents a share, from $1.85 billion, or 53 cents a share, a year ago.
- Profit margins were bolstered by $739 million in automotive regulatory credit revenue during the quarter
- Analysts now focusing on Gross Margins - as they were the shiny spot for the quarter
- Automotive revenues stalled for years - but energy generation picking up
- CEO Elon Musk said on the earnings call that his “best guess” is that “vehicle growth” will reach 20% to 30% next year, due to “lower cost vehicles” and the “advent of autonomy.”
-------Analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting a total increase in deliveries next year of about 15% to 2.04 million.
- - Shares were squeezed up 20% at one point after the print

Tesla Revenues

Chip-Gate
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company notified the U.S. that one of its chips had been found in a Huawei product after tech research firm TechInsights took apart the product, a person familiar with the matter said, revealing a possible violation of export restrictions on the Chinese company.
- The teardown was of Huawei's Ascend 910B, another source said. The 910B is viewed as the most advanced AI chip available from a Chinese company. The first source would not identify the item, but said the TSMC chip was one within a multi-chip system.

World Series
-Tickets for the 2024 World Series between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to be the most expensive ever. The average price for a ticket on the secondary market is around $1,703, which is more than double the average price for the 2023 World Series. The cheapest tickets for Game 1 were $977 for seats in the right field bleachers
- Some seats are aaid to be going for $20,000

Fun!  BBall
- Went to the opening game of the Heat - Pat Riley dedication of the Court
- LeBron James and his son Bronny became the first father-son duo to play together in a regular season NBA game on Tuesday as the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Minnesota Timberwolves in their season opener.

In Closing...
- Apple announces that it is testing blood-sugar app
- Looking to continue its adventure into health related apps
- No-prick technology is being tested

 

 

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

The WINNER for
The Closest to The Pin - INTEL (INTC)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -
PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

 

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

 

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

There are some things we need to know about who is actually buying stocks.

Yields on the rise – estimate that they could be moving up to what level?

Big tech earnings on tap – how will markets react?

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

DONATIONS ?

Warm-Up
- Gold on a tear - not just gen pop buying
- Elephants buying up stocks - The BIG reveal
- Musk giving away $
- E-Coli Alert

Markets
- Yields cranking higher - steepening means....
- A bit of profit taking ahead of tech earnings (next week)
- More Tax abatements
- Markets look a little tired....

Treasury Rates
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.11% on Monday as investors awaited a flurry of speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers.
- This is a far cry from the lows before the latest rate cut about a month ago.
- Elections and debt loads are weighing as are the latest strong economic numbers

Yield Curve

This too...
- The Biden administration rang up a budget deficit topping $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, up more than 8% from the previous year and the third highest on record, the Treasury Department said Friday.
- The deficit came despite record receipts of $4.9 trillion, which fell well short of outlays of $6.75 trillion.
- Government debt has swelled to $35.7 trillion, an increase of $2.3 trillion from the end of fiscal 2023.
- Interest expense for the year totaled $1.16 trillion, the first time that figure has topped the trillion-dollar level. (23% of receipts are used for debt service)
- The CBO expects deficits to continue to rise, hitting $2.8 trillion by 2034. On the debt side, the office expects it to rise from the current level near 100% of GDP to 122% in 2034.

The Big Reveal
- The central bank of the Czech Republic added to positions in some of the biggest tech names among U.S.-traded stocks, as well as increasing a bet on Warren Buffett.
- Czech National Bank Bought Up Palantir, Nvidia, Apple, and Berkshire Stock
- Here is my take.... (Central Banks reporting to other options as they are strapped and backs against the wall. They know they have enough firepower to pump stocks to try to dig themselves out of a death spiral of debt)
- Is it legal - yes. Is it good for markets, yes. Is it dangerous? Yes and no - if you can print money - who cares?

More...
Let's not forget about China rolling out $112 Billion scheme to bolster stocks
- China's central bank kicked off two funding schemes on Friday that will initially pump as much as 800 billion yuan ($112.38 billion) into the stock market through newly-created monetary policy tools.
- The central bank also launched a relending program, initially worth 300 billion yuan, that would allow financial institutions to borrow from the PBOC to fund share purchases by listed companies or their major shareholders.
- 1.75% is the rate to borrow and buy stocks

Revealed - Just a quick look....
- The Swiss National Bank has 20% of its assets in equities.
- The Bank of Japan buys Japanese ETFs as part of its domestic money market operations, but it doesn’t buy foreign stocks.
- The Bank of Finland does invest in equities
- Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway, buys stocks.
- Bank of Finland buys stocks
- Last quarter - Norway's gigantic sovereign wealth fund on Tuesday reported third-quarter profit of 835 billion Norwegian kroner ($76.3 billion)
- - - To date, the fund has put money in more than 8,760 companies in 71 countries around the world.

NO TAXES!
- Donald Trump said he’d consider exempting police officers, firefighters, active duty military and veterans from paying taxes
- Why not just have no taxes for everyone?
--- UPDATE:  Former President Donald Trump's tax reform ideas could offer total or partial income tax exemptions to roughly 93.2 million Americans, or just under half of the U.S. electorate
---- Supposedly the income needed will come from tariffs (that is not a tax??)

ELON
- Elon giving away $100 to voters in PA - to sign a petition about
- "If you're a registered Pennsylvania voter, you & whoever referred you will now get $100 for signing our petition in support of free speech & right to bear arms. Earn money for supporting something you already believe in,"
- He is also gving away $1M per day
- Musk is promising to give $1 million each day to someone who signs his online petition, which reads: "The First and Second Amendments guarantee freedom of speech and the right to bear arms. By signing below, I am pledging my support for the First and Second Amendments."
- To be eligible for the $1 million, petition signers must be a registered voter and live in one of the seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the America PAC website.
- IS this legal - some say sweepstakes format is good.

CUBA
- Cuba's national electrical grid first crashed around midday on Friday after the island's largest power plant shut down, sowing chaos and leaving around 10 million people in the dark.
- The grid has collapsed three times since, underscoring the precarious state of the country's infrastructure.
- (Only 10 million people total in Cuba - so effectively entire country is out of power)

Some Relief?
- Spirit Airlines (SAVE) closed at a fresh low Friday.
- After the close, just before the deadline, they were able to extended the deadline for a debt refinancing with Vias and Mastercard
- Shares up 50% on the news

ECB Rhetoric and Rates
- Third rate cut this year, first back-to-back cut in 13 years
- Recent economic data supports case for reduction
- Quarter-point cut lowers benchmark ECB rate to 3.25%
- High interest rates have hurt investment, economic growth
- Lagarde says still on track for "soft landing"

META Layoffs
- Meta is laying off employees across units including Instagram, WhatsApp and Reality Labs, the Verge reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
- Separately, the Financial Times reported that Meta fired another two dozen staff in Los Angeles for allegedly using their daily $25 meal credits to instead buy household items including acne pads, wine glasses and laundry detergent.
- Meta has slashed around 21,000 jobs since November 2022 to keep costs low with CEO Mark Zuckerberg calling 2023 the "Year of Efficiency".

Chips - Taiwan Semi
- SMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, bet on sustaining its strong growth, after reporting on Thursday a forecast-beating 54% jump in quarterly profit driven by soaring demand for chips used in artificial intelligence (AI).
- The company boosted outlook and is boldly confirming that AI investment is very real and very strong

Starbucks Earnings
- Starbucks projects Q4 revenue and earnings below consensus; global comps fell -7%; suspends FY25 guidance; increases quarterly dividend 
- Funny - the Nike and Starbucks lovers were all over the news pumping when China announced stimulus - saying that NKE and SBUX would be direct beneficiaries
- Stock down 4% AH

JUST IN
- McDonald's shares down hard after hours
- Seems that the Quarter pounder is linked to e-coli outbreak
- - Interesting timing after Trump was serving just a couple of days ago

 

 

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Announcing the WINNER for
The Closest to The Pin - INTEL (INTC)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -
PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

 

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

 

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Bulls remain in charge

Data not important – down the road all will be fine

Seasonality – Race to the End

CPI and PPI – conflicting

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

DONATIONS ?

This week on TDI Podcast - Patrick O'Hare from Briefing.com

Warm-Up
- Bulls remain in charge
- Data not important - down the road all will be fine
- Seasonality - Race to the End
- Check the Podcast Cover Design - trying to do all from AI generation through end of year.
- Musk pulls a fast one

Markets
- CPI and PPI - conflicting
- Bank earnings - so far so good
- Fed allowing people to look past negatives - rather to opportunities ahead
- US Chips and Exports - roughed up market

Economics This Week
- Import and Export Prices
- Retail Sales
- Philly Fed
- Industrial Production
- Housing Starts
- Building Permits

Of Interest:
NY Fed says median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% at the one-year horizon, increased to 2.7% from 2.5% at the three-year horizon, and increased to 2.9% from 2.8% at the five-year horizon.
- So inflation is a bit more sticky than

Recession - No Says Goldman
- Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%

Seasonality - The Race until the end
- Sell Rosh Hashana and Buy Yom Kippur - so far so good - working just as planned. Almost...
- End of year from here favors the bulls
- Could have a few complications with the election right in  between but electoral promises will be  helpful for markets

Markets Worried?
- Biden administration officials have discussed capping sales of advanced AI chips from Nvidia Corp. and other American companies on a country-specific basis
- NVDA, INTC, AMD in the crosshairs for Middle East
- Officials are focused on Persian Gulf countries that have a growing appetite for AI data centers and the deep pockets to fund them
- The new approach would set a ceiling on export licenses for certain countries in the interest of national security
- ASML earnings miss (Stock dropped 16%) is a drag on chip/semiconductor sector

Fed Powers
- Former President Trump on Bloomberg interview says Fed Chair Jerome Powell dropped rates too much in 2020; says a president should be able to give his or her opinion to Fed on interest rates, but he or she shouldn't be allowed to order it

ELON - Pulling a fast one
- Tesla had its Optimus robots controlled by remote at CyberCab event, according to Bloomberg
- Also, reports that driver-less cars controlled by remote drivers in India (or somewhere)
- Isn't that fraud?

Example of promises hitting the wires
- Former President Trump will propose today making all interest on car loans fully tax deductible, according to Reuters
- Former President Trump will also propose a 15% corporate tax rate only for companies that produce products in America
- Former President Trump will also propose banning all Chinese autonomous vehicles from traveling on US roads (Special gift for Elon)

Consumer Confidence
- Last Friday - confidence showed people less confident
- Inflation expectations lower, but dropped 2 points from last month

JPM Earnings
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported a surprise gain in net interest income for the third quarter and raised its forecast for the key revenue source, even amid expectations that US interest rates will continue to fall.
- Revenue from the bank’s Wall Street operations also defied analysts’ estimates, with investment-banking fees surging 31%, topping estimates for a 16% gain. Equity traders notched a 27% revenue increase.
- Official:  JPMorgan Chase reported strong third-quarter earnings, with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.50, beating estimates. The bank’s performance was driven by robust trading and investment banking revenues. This reflects a slight drop compared to the same quarter last year, when earnings were $4.33 per share. However, JPMorgan's revenues increased from the previous year's figure of $39.8 billion

Other Banks:
- Wells Fargo also reported better-than-expected earnings, with a notable increase in net interest income. The bank reported earnings of $1.28 per share on revenue of $20.37 billion, showing a 2% decline in revenue compared to last year. Net income dropped 11% year-over-year to $5.1 billion?
- BlackRock and Bank of New York Mellon are among other financial heavyweights that released their results today and did well.

Eli Lilly
- GLP1 weight loss meds come off the short supply list by the company
- FDA takes off too - which means compounding will not be  available for this drug (Zepbound - Tirzepatide )
- Compounding companies sue the FDA
- Less than a week later, the FDA is reconsidering allowing compounding companies to continue production
- WAIT - Doesn't Lilly have a patent until 2036?

Tesla Robo-Taxi Day - Follow Up
- DUD - promises and nothing except a car growth no steering wheel or driver's cockpit (as we predicted)
- Stock down 8% the next day as analysts seem to be getting bored with the story.

Boeing Follow Up
- Now the company - (employees still on strike) - laying off 10% of their employees - 17,000
- If cut to junk status, Boeing Co. will be the biggest US corporate borrower to ever be stripped of its investment-grade ratings and join junk bond indexes, flooding the high-yield market with a record volume of new debt to absorb.
- S&P Global Ratings said it’s considering downgrading the planemaker to junk as strikes at its manufacturing sites persist, hurting production.

Social Security Recipients
- The Social Security Administration has announced a 2.5% the cost-of-living adjustment for 2025.
- TIPs, SS payments

CPI and PPI
- The September Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), leaving it up 2.4% year-over-year versus 2.5% in August.
- The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%), leaving it up 3.3% year-over-year versus 3.2% in August.

CPI YoY

China
- China’s exports and imports both missed expectations in September, raising concerns about one of the few bright spots in the world’s second largest economy.
- Customs data out Monday showed exports rose by 2.4% in September from a year ago in U.S. dollar terms, while imports added 0.3%.
- Analysts had expected faster growth. China’s exports were forecast to have risen by 6% year-on-year in September in U.S. dollar terms, with imports anticipated to have posted a 0.9% year-on-year climb last month, according to Reuters polls.

Nuclear
- "NEW CLEAR ENERGY"
- Alphabet will support construction of 7 smaller US nuclear power reactors to help power artificial intelligence, according to WSJ
- “We believe that nuclear energy has a critical role to play in supporting our clean growth and helping to deliver on the progress of AI,” Michael Terrell, senior director for energy and climate at Google, said on a call with reporters. “The grid needs these kinds of clean, reliable sources of energy that can support the build out of these technologies. … We feel like nuclear can play an important role in helping to meet our demand, and helping meet our demand cleanly, in a way that’s more around the clock.”
- potential related stocks: VST, NLR, CCJ, SMR

Interesting
- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway continued to increase its stake in SiriusXM now owning 32% of the New York-based satellite radio company.
- The Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate purchased roughly 3.6 million shares for about $87 million in separate transactions Wednesday through Friday, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission late Friday.

Kroger Again
- Announcing additional 25,000 hires for end of year holiday expectations
- Kroger Owns:
---Supermarkets – Kroger, Ralphs, Dillons, Smith’s, King Soopers, Fry’s, QFC, City Market, Owen’s, Jay C, Pay Less, Baker’s, Gerbes, Harris Teeter, Pick ‘n Save, Metro Market, Mariano’s
- Multi-department stores – Fred Meyer
--- Dillons Marketplace, Fry’s Marketplace, King Soopers Marketplace, Kroger Marketplace, Smith’s Marketplace
-- - Price-impact warehouse stores – Food 4 Less, Foods Co

Bankruptcy and Closings
- Wholesale hardware supplier True Value has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and is planning to sell by the end of the year to rival Do It Best.
- Nearly 450 7-Eleven stores across North America are closing for underperforming, according to the company.

 

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

The Closest to The Pin for :
INTEL (INTC)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -
PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

 

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

 

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Does anyone care about the data? Does the Data Matta? Port Strike ENDED - for now Hurricane Milton - Strong Cat5 going to hit West Coast of Florida... Employment Report Update PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Reminder: Intel CTP is open! Warm-Up - Does anyone care about the data?Does the Data Matta? - Port Strike ENDED - for now - Hurricane Milton - Strong Cat5 going to hit West Coast of Florida... - Employment Report Markets -Headwinds, Wars, Higher Rates, Higher Fuel Costs - Who Cares? - Hurricane Impact - Oil on the move - Yields moving higher - Robotaxi Day! Want to Bet? - A federal appeals court on Wednesday refused to block a lower-court ruling allowing Americans to bet on the outcome of the 2024 congressional elections. - This will be BIG - and a difficult thing to handicap - Plenty of ways to eventually get into the betting craze 0 from sportsbooks to investors with binary style investments. - Thoughts? Hurricane Milton - Nasty Storm hitting the Gulf Area - Generac stock flying - up 8% Monday and 50% YTD - Stock is down from $500 to $170 (from peak in 2021) - Crude oil rallying - combination of Hurricane Milton and Middle East conflict -- Follow-Up: Crude Dropping as HurcMilt not going to disrupt Gulf Oil All Over - Strike OVER! - Tentative deal and back to work....after first strike since 1977 - Under the tentative new agreement, workers will earn a 61.5% raise over six years. That means the highest paid workers would make $63 per hour in the final year of the contract — up from $39. - NO AUTOMATION - The union argues that technological advances could threaten the existence and value of union jobs, a concern that has persisted to varying degrees since the Industrial Revolution first introduced machines into the manufacturing space. Budget Deficit - No One Cares - The federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion in fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. - The estimated deficit for 2024 was $139 billion more than the shortfall recorded during fiscal year 2023. - Revenues increased by an estimated $479 billion (or 11 percent). - Revenues in all major categories, but notably individual income taxes, were greater than they were in fiscal year 2023. - Outlays rose by an estimated $617 billion (or 10 percent). - The largest increase in outlays was for education ($308 billion). - Net outlays for interest on the public debt rose by $240 billion to total $950 billion. Pfizer - Starboard Value has amassed a roughly $1 billion stake in drugmaker Pfizer, according to people familiar with the matter. - Starboard believes that Pfizer’s current leadership under CEO Albert Bourla has stepped away from its historically disciplined cost structure and investment in novel drugs, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss confidential information freely. - The stock is trading about 30% lower than it did in 2019. Seriously? - Two Democratic lawmakers are demanding that some of the biggest food and beverage companies stop engaging in “shrinkflation” — the practice of reducing product sizes while charging prices that are the same or higher. - In pointed letters, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Rep. Madeleine Dean of Pennsylvania accused General Mills, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo of engaging in a “pattern of profiteering” through shrinkflation and by “dodging taxes.” Employment Report - Nonfarm payrolls increase by 254,000 in September - Unemployment rate falls to 4.1% from 4.2% - Average hourly earnings rise 0.4%; up 4.0% year-on-year - Average workweek slips to 34.2 hours from 34.3 hours - Yields Rocking higher - above 4% now..