Engaging in any form of investment involves some level of uncertainty. While it's natural to feel proud of our achievements, it's equally important to analyze our process when things go wrong.

As with anything in life, if we practice value investing for long enough, we’ll inevitably make some missteps. By reflecting on failures, we uncover insights and lessons that not only strengthen our decision-making but also help us grow as more informed and resilient investors.

On this Vault episode we look back on the troubled story of Horsehead Holdings, and Phil dives into his connection to the company and what he took away from his experience watching a business defy expectations.

If you’re looking for help with how to plan, save, and invest—at any age—make sure to get our free guide, Map Out Your Investing Journey: https://bit.ly/3DTy4qN

Topics Discussed:

• Horsehead Holding Corporation
• 13F filings
• 10-K reports
• Zinc industry
• EBITDA
• P/E ratio

Resources Discussed:

• GuruFocus
• DATAROMA
• Seeking Alpha

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Free cash flow is a key metric in value investing. It provides a more reliable view of a company’s financial health than its earnings, which can be influenced by creative accounting. By focusing on free cash flow, investors can identify financially solid companies with long-term potential and reduce reliance on speculation.

As we close out 2024 and as InvestED nears its 500th episode, this week we’re looking back on an episode from very early in the show’s run. This Vault pull serves as an excellent primer to anyone who’s new to the show and gives a great overview of Rule #1/Buffett-style investing.

For some great year-ending insights into the mind of the Oracle of Omaha, click here for a free copy of Phil’s Warren Buffett Book of Quotes: https://bit.ly/3OEPXjL

Topics Discussed:

• Humanizing companies
• Crowdfunding and regulation
• Cash flow vs. earnings
• Certainty in investing

Resources Discussed:

• Payback Time

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Season’s greetings, value investors!

Phil and Danielle check in to reflect on the holiday season and express gratitude for the support of all InvestED listeners throughout the year. As our hosts prepare for some vacation time to close out 2024, we want to share a warm reminder to cherish the season (while staying mindful of long-term financial goals).

Whether you’re new to InvestED or just looking to revisit some classics, click here for curated playlists featuring some of the best episodes from over the years: https://bit.ly/3MUOiFn

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So a business you own is undergoing an event that’s made the future less certain—so what’s your next move as a value investor?  Finding the right time to sell can be difficult when the M.O. is to buy and hold, but knowing when to break with an investment can be just as important as knowing what to buy in the first place.

Investing success hinges on finding antifragile companies—those that thrive in adversity and compound growth over time. Focusing on a few resilient businesses, rather than over-diversifying, leads to better long-term returns, especially during downturns.

Rather than timing the market, investors should prioritize companies with strong fundamentals and compounding potential. Patience and discipline are vital to benefit from their growth through adversity.

On this week’s show, Phil and Danielle discuss how to approach your investments having events and what the Rule #1 philosophy can tell us about these situations.

For help in planning out your investment journey in the year ahead, don’t miss your free copy of Phil’s 12-Month Financial Success planner:  https://bit.ly/45AP6Xh

Topics Discussed:

• Chipotle’s E. coli outbreak
• San Diego real estate problems
• Intrinsic value
• Antifragile businesses
• Emotion in investing
• Sprouts
• FOMO
• Tulipmania

Resources Discussed:

• All In
• Rule #1

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Your circle of competence is the cornerstone of smart investing. Expanding your knowledge as you grow keeps your skills sharp and your strategy strong.

When you focus on what you know best, you gain a clearer view of potential investments. This clarity can help you navigate market shifts with greater confidence and resilience than when you’re taking on an investment with more unknowns.

In this episode, Phil and Danielle discuss how your perspectives can change over the years, and how expanding and refining your circle of confidence can use that change to your advantage.

If you’ve found your circle of competence and you’re ready to invest, click here for your free copy of How To Pick Stocks: The 5-Step Checklist for help with identifying which businesses are right for you: https://bit.ly/3ros8mU

Topics Discussed:

• Figuring out “wonderful”
• Qualitative vs quantitative analysis
• Continuous education
• Circle of competence
• Finding your “one thing”
• Rule #1 of investing

Resources Discussed:

• Groundhog Day
• City Slickers

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To novices and outsiders, the practice of investing can appear intimidating and overwhelming.  However, despite the seemingly high barriers to entry and understanding market dynamics, an investor’s IQ matters less than their ability to be disciplined, patient, and emotionally detached from their investments.

In fact, this applies even more to newcomers than it does to seasoned investors, as working with more capital can make it difficult to find impactful investments compared to a modest portfolio.  As you grow in your investing practice, those added complications can be countered by an expanded circle of competence and deeper market knowledge.

This week, Phil and Danielle discuss how an investor’s mental state and learned habits can aid their investing journey more than their sheer brain power.  They also dig into the ongoing antitrust trial over Google’s practices and what the outcome could mean for the tech world.

For more insights on the fundamentals practiced by Buffett and other investing greats, make sure to get your free copy of these 6 Market Crusing Investing Principles :  https://bit.ly/45szJ2v

Topics Discussed:

• Jim Simons/Renaissance Technologies
• Amazon founding
• Buffett’s change of heart re: Apple
• Reliance on China
• IQ vs hard work
• Circle of competence
• Google antitrust cas
• Lina Khan
• Differentiating between short- and long-term problems
• Fiat/Ferrari

Resources Discussed:

• Mohnish Pabrai on Ferrari
• Gemini (Google AI)

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As value investors, we aim to identify and monitor exceptional, well-managed companies that dominate their industries, effectively operating as unique monopolies.

A good starting point is using Google to gather basic insights—stock charts and financial summaries provide a broad overview. From there, explore their reports to assess transparency: are they forthcoming with information, or does it seem like they’re withholding details?

Finally, conduct a deep analysis to determine whether the company aligns with your values and investment philosophy.

In this follow-up to the previous episode's discussion, Phil and Danielle return to Terumo to talk through a recent application of their research process.

For help to find the right business to start your own deep dive, don’t miss your free copy of the “3 Circles” Exercise Guide:  https://bit.ly/3LOexg2

Topics Discussed:

• Buffett selling stock
• Treasury bonds and P/E ratios
• Boeing woes
• Rule of 72
• Terumo
• OTC companies
• 
  

Resources Discussed:

• All In podcast
• Rule #1 by Phil Town
• Invested by Danielle and Phil Town

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Modern tools and technology have transformed company analysis and given the general public easier access to a wealth of information to inform their investments. Determining the true metrics of a business is indispensable in value investing, which relies on balancing long-term trends with short-term market spikes.

Discover why thorough research and decisive action are key to uncovering value in today’s fast-paced markets, offering timeless insights for smarter investing.

Join Phil and Danielle as they analyze Terumo, a leading medical technology company, and explore its fundamentals via key investment principles and the impact of consistency in financial data.

To learn more about the philosophy behind Rule #1, click here for sample audiobook chapters from our NYT best sellers: https://bit.ly/3N21M18

Topics Discussed:

• Thanksgiving
• Terumo
• Increased access to information
• Rule of 72
• Windage

Resources Discussed:

• InvestED on YouTube

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We all know the ever-popular key to financial success in the 21st century: just get your coffee/avocado toast at home and quit wasting all of your money!

While there’s something to be said for limiting unnecessary impulse buys, the benefit of small wins in our daily lives isn’t something that we should overlook.  While the #1 rule of investing is “don’t lose money,” it’s important for each investor to decide what “losing” money means to them.

Join Danielle as she checks in for the beginning of this holiday season and talks through her idea of what it means to set yourself up for success no matter what.

For a better understanding of your own investing profile, click here to take the Rule #1 Investing Personalities Quiz:  https://bit.ly/468F8eW

Topics Discussed:

• Gift giving
• “Either way” account

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We’re back!

After several weeks away from the podcast studio, our hosts are back together to cover their tumultuous October. From incapacitating sickness in Europe to lively nuptials in Belo Horizonte, all set against the backdrop of one of the wildest election seasons in recent US history, it’s been an eventful autumn.

Phil and Danielle also speculate on the potential economic forecast under the next administration, and what deficit spending from either party could mean for future markets. Following years of high inflation, what results could more government spending bring in the years ahead?

Valuation is a critical part of the investment process. For help with calculating a company’s market capitalization so that you can make smarter investing choices, click here for your free copy of Understanding Market Capitalization: https://bit.ly/44p1xE9

Topics Discussed:

• The Algarve
• COVID-19
• Brazilian weddings
• Chuckwalla Valley Raceway
• Porsche Owners Club
• The 47th presidential administration
• Government spending
• Inflation hedges
• Nixon and the gold standard
• Carter and interest rates

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If there’s one thing that can be said for certain in the closing months of 2024, it’s got to be that we’re seeing the fulfillment of an apocryphal Chinese curse: “may you live in interesting times.”

Although global events like wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have shaken the stock market, Phil argues that uncertainty in the investment climate presents the best opportunities for investing.

Tune in to this episode of InvestED where Phil and Danielle discuss when and if you should invest in an uncertain investing environment, how to take advantage of lower prices, and how to find antifragile companies.

Learn where to find antifragile companies with Phil Town’s Ultimate Stock Market Crash Survival Guide. Get your free copy of the guide now: https://bit.ly/3xNXFlf

Topics Discussed:

• Investing with uncertainty
• Finding antifragile companies
• Markets responding to the war in Ukraine
• Depressions and recessions
• Inflation and buying power

Resources Discussed:

• Ray Dalio signaling 100 year depression
• Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder

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