Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Trend Following | Hedge Funds | Global Macro | Geo-Politics | Commodities | Quant Investing | Crypto | Volatility

  • 58 minutes 29 seconds
    SI334: Why Quants Might Be Your Best Bet ft. Nick Baltas

    Together with Nick Baltas, we're diving deep into systematic investing to discuss why strategies like trend following is a hidden gem in the current (crazy) economic and geo-political landscape. We touch on recent trends, the implications of AI in investing, and how these dynamics can impact our portfolios. We also discuss the costs of rebalancing and the potential pitfalls when it comes to fixed-weight portfolios, how the trust in the financial system and economic data is starting to fade rapidly and much more. Stay tuned, there is a lot to unpack.

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    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Nick on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    01:40 - What has caught our attention recently?

    05:26 - A mini crash in the crypto space

    11:24 - Breath vs Size of Crypto Investors

    14:24 - The US Fixed Income policy is changing

    16:07 - Industry performance update

    19:21 - Reviewing current trends in 2025

    23:46 - How people react to trend following as a defensive strategy

    28:51 - What are the most popular risk mitigation strategies?

    30:53 - An alternative way of allocating away from bonds and into "safe" equities

    38:13 - The trust in the system is fading...rapidly

    46:53 - Why price might be more accurate when using trend following

    49:42 - The unintended impact of rebalancing

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    8 February 2025, 6:00 am
  • 1 hour 2 minutes
    ALO27: Unlocking Wealth: Insights from UBS's CIO Mark Haefele

    Mark Haefele, CIO of Global Wealth Management at UBS, shares valuable insights on the evolving landscape of investing amidst unprecedented government intervention in the economy. He emphasizes that understanding the role of government spending and its impact on market dynamics is crucial for today's investors. The conversation explores the distinction between managing wealth and managing investments, highlighting the importance of adopting a mindset of abundance rather than scarcity. Haefele also explains the significance of long-term structural trends, such as demographics and digitalization, which shape investment decisions. Throughout the discussion, he offers practical advice for navigating the complexities of investing in a world where macroeconomic factors increasingly influence outcomes.

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    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Follow Mark on LinkedIn.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:30 - Introduction to Mark Haefele

    05:13 - Behind the scenes of Haefele's job

    06:46 - The key takeaways from Haefele's book

    09:01 - The difference between managing your wealth and managing your investment

    11:16 - How has the investing world changed over the years?

    14:50 - Is now a culmination of previous crises?

    16:58 - The 5 structural trends of the global economy and how it relates to government spending

    19:58 - How they apply the 5 structural trends in a broad sense

    22:19 - The most important thing you can do for your portfolio

    24:09 - Big problems are big money

    25:08 - A historical perspective of the economy

    27:43 - Are we moving into an era of greater economic intervention?

    30:11 - Was Covid19 the beginning of a new era for inflation?

    34:07 - Why private markets are crucial for your portfolio

    37:39 - Tips to avoid investing on trends that are peaking

    42:41 - Overcoming the behavioural challenges as an investor

    47:04 - Half of the battle is mental

    49:55 - Advice to become a great investor

    52:16 - Understanding your relationship to money

    54:31 - Practical ideas for investing with ESG

    57:25 - Haefele's perspective on US international relationships

    01:00:15 - Key advice for other investors

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    5 February 2025, 8:30 am
  • 1 hour 12 minutes
    SI333: Convexity - The Trend Following Game Changer! ft. Richard Brennan

    Most investors focus on returns, but what about the shape of those returns? Today, Rich and I explore the often overlooked concept of convexity - a game-changing principle in trend following that helps us thrive in unpredictable markets. Inspired by insights from our recent guest, Dave Dredge, we break down why mastering convexity is key to cutting losses early, riding big winners, and staying ahead of market turbulence.

    If you’re serious about protecting and growing your portfoli - while making smarter, more systematic decisions - this episode is a must-listen. Join us for a deep dive into the mechanics of risk, reward, and the powerful edge convexity can give your portfolio!

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Rich on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    01:49 - What has caught our attention recently?

    06:20 - Industry performance update

    11:10 - Why does convexity matter for trend following?

    36:13 - What do we actually mean by convexity?

    42:04 - Sharpe world - the pitfalls of today's economy

    52:30 - Why risk and volatility can feel like the same thing

    56:08 - The core of trend following

    58:22 - Why open trade equity makes no sense for managers

    01:00:03 - The business of trend following

    01:01:37 - The exponential potential of trend following

    01:08:05 - The times have changed - why is trend following more important than ever?

    01:11:22 - What is up for next week?

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    1 February 2025, 10:30 pm
  • 1 hour 1 minute
    GM79: How Global Economic Dynamics Shape Our Future ft. Matthew Klein

    Today, we explore the intricate dynamics of global trade and economics, highlighting the central thesis of Matt Klein's book, "Trade Wars or Class Wars." Klein argues that the common perception of trade as a zero-sum game is fundamentally flawed; instead, he emphasizes that positive-sum solutions exist, benefiting all parties involved. The conversation explores the impact of internal dynamics within countries, particularly focusing on how these dynamics affect international relations and economic outcomes. Additionally, we discuss the current state of the global economy, rising bond yields, and the potential consequences of immigration policies on labor markets and housing. We invite listeners to rethink traditional economic narratives and consider how collective actions can lead to improved outcomes for everyone.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Follow Matthew on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:08 - Introduction to Matthew Klein

    05:32 - Expanding the definition of trade

    13:45 - The dynamic between growth and productivity

    17:04 - The state of the German economy and how it could be improved

    22:42 - Klein's perspective on the development of the bond markets

    28:49 - Klein's outlook for inflation and interest rates

    34:36 - Are we approaching a consumer credit crisis?

    38:49 - Is there a productivity boom in sight?

    42:25 - Will the deportation become a growth choker?

    44:45 - Are we seeing a slow down in housing and rent?

    50:10 - What could be done to save the dollar?

    59:36 - Advice for other investors

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    29 January 2025, 9:00 am
  • 1 hour 5 minutes
    SI332: Market Turbulence: How to Adapt to Regime Changes in Investing ft. Alan Dunne & Mark Rzepczynski

    Today, we explore the complexities of current market dynamics, emphasizing the heightened levels of uncertainty stemming from recent regime changes. Mark Rzepczynski shares insights on how this uncertainty can influence investment behavior and market trends, highlighting the importance for investors to adapt their strategies in response to these shifts. The discussion touches on the implications of fluctuating correlations and volatility, particularly for systematic and trend-following strategies. We also explore how the intricate nature of financial markets as complex systems can lead to nonlinear reactions to shocks, making it crucial for traders to consider both measurable risks and the non-measurable uncertainties that can affect their models. The episode wraps up with reflections on the role of institutional arrangements and how they can impact market outcomes in a rapidly changing environment.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Follow Mark on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    01:16 - A flurry of activities

    04:05 - The state of VIX and how newspapers and media measure uncertainty

    09:11 - How do trend followers take advantage of the uncertainty in markets?

    12:50 - What are the components of the regime shift?

    16:04 - The implications of the regime shift

    17:57 - Industry performance update

    19:21 - The state of bond markets from an uncertainty perspective

    21:16 - Do indices differentiate between different kinds of uncertainty?

    24:45 - How the Trump administration contributes to increased economic uncertainty

    28:58 - Are we entering a new, golden age?

    33:31 - Do other strategies need adjustment to adapt to the uncertainty?

    37:31 - Anything is possible

    44:01 - Mastering the balance between convergent and divergent strategies

    51:51 - How the banking sector could become less stable the coming years

    56:05 - Analyzing economic shocks using a complex systems framework

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    25 January 2025, 7:00 am
  • 1 hour 31 minutes
    GM 78: The Market Risk Nobody’s Watching ft. Dave Dredge & Cem Karsan

    Today, we take you into the complexities of the current financial landscape, emphasizing the crucial theme of positioning in an environment marked by rising interest rates and shifting market dynamics. We explore how recent structured product issuance is significantly impacting market structure, particularly in the U.S., where the volume of callable bonds and equity-linked products has surged. They highlight the risks associated with reliance on historical correlations, which may not hold in times of market stress, and the implications for investors navigating these turbulent waters. The conversation also touches on the potential for a significant monetary regime shift, akin to what was seen in the late '90s, driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic economic policies. You will gain valuable insights into how to recognize and adapt to these evolving risks, to become well prepared for the challenges ahead.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Cem on Twitter.

    Follow David on LinkedIn.

    Read David's report here.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    01:34 - A quick catch up since last conversation

    02:13 - Dredge's key takeaways from 2024

    08:58 - When did things really start to move for Dredge?

    15:41 - Cem's analysis of the recent global macro environment

    22:51 - What has driven the S&P volatility?

    24:44 - Positioning is all that matters

    29:31 - "Correlation is a bitch"

    33:31 - Portfolio Manager in legal trouble for following an ESG strategy

    37:57 - The difference between credit and vol investors

    42:07 - The good outcome is a recession

    45:36 - All the things that you are not worried about is driving your performance

    48:49 - The state of interest rates and FX trading

    57:24 - Is the Fed losing its grip on the economy?

    01:03:46 - The outlook of markets - where are we heading?

    01:09:18 - Risk is on your balance sheet, not in the future

    01:16:14 - Dredge's perspective on structural products issuance

    01:27:22 - The recession might come sooner than we think

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    22 January 2025, 7:00 am
  • 1 hour 5 minutes
    SI331: Crafting the Perfect Investment Portfolio in 2025 ft. Alan Dunne

    Today, we dive deep into the evolving landscape of investment strategies, emphasizing the critical need for diversification in portfolios. With a particular focus on the German economy's challenges, we highlight how geopolitical factors and shifting market dynamics are reshaping investment approaches. We explore the potential implications of rising bond yields and the importance of incorporating trend-following strategies to mitigate risks associated with traditional asset classes. We also touch on the necessity for investors to rethink their allocations to adapt to an uncertain future, moving beyond outdated correlations and assumptions. As we examine the perspectives of notable figures in finance, the episode serves as a timely reminder of the importance of strategic asset allocation in navigating today's complex market environment.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:55 - What has caught our attention recently?

    02:41 - Why has the German economy changed so much?

    10:20 - A world of unexpected political events

    13:57 - How can there be a beta if managers are so different?

    16:06 - The state of the global macro environment

    25:10 - Industry performance update

    28:10 - Are investors relying too much on past performance?

    35:01 - Are we seeing signs of a catastrophic bubble?

    40:14 - 2025 - a deja vu to 1995?

    42:24 - Advice for constructing a robust trend following portfolio

    54:49 - What do trend following portfolios have in common with race cars?

    01:00:34 - Is ESG ruining portfolio performance?

    01:03:01 - The fashion has changed

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    18 January 2025, 2:15 am
  • 48 minutes 4 seconds
    OI13: The Art of Continuous Trading: Mastering Market Dynamics ft. Bill Gebhardt

    Bill Gebhardt from 10Dynamics discusses the intriguing intersection of market efficiency and systematic trading strategies. He emphasizes the idea that while traditional views suggest markets are efficient, many hedge funds continue to find success using price-based strategies that should theoretically not work. This paradox leads to a fascinating exploration of the psychological aspects of trading, particularly how human behavior can create opportunities for systematic traders. Gebhardt shares insights on the operational complexities of running a nearly continuous trading process, utilizing intraday data, and employing a diverse range of signals. The conversation explores the risks of underfitting versus overfitting in trading models, ultimately advocating for a strategy that embraces empirical success without excessive optimization.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Moritz on Linkedin.

    Follow Bill on X.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:17 - Introduction to Bill Gebhardt

    06:35 - No pain, no gain

    08:40 - Why are they called 10Dynamics?

    10:08 - What is their philosophy behind how markets work?

    12:24 - Are the signals that they run based on trend following?

    13:47 - How they handle the operational complexity of their system

    18:15 - How they assess the validity of their data

    20:39 - Exploring the technical details behind the execution of their system

    22:39 - How they approach trading times

    25:07 - Combining short and long term trading

    26:52 - How they avoid overfitting and underfitting

    30:58 - How Gebhardt implements his experience from the energy space

    33:54 - How many markets do they trade?

    35:50 - Accessing the domestic futures markets

    36:56 - Why are single name equities so special to 10Dynamics?

    41:08 - How they approach VIX futures

    43:39 - Their perspective on replication strategies

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    15 January 2025, 6:30 am
  • 1 hour 1 minute
    SI330: Yield Storm Ahead: Preparing for a New Era ft. Cem Karsan

    Together with Cem Karsan we take the pulse of the evolving landscape investors are faced with amidst rising interest rates and market volatility. A key takeaway is the recognition of structural changes in bond markets, with the potential for significantly higher yields impacting investment strategies. We explore the implications of current geopolitical dynamics, including Trump's perhaps surprising approach to China, his expansionary agenda and how it may shape market expectations moving forward. We also address the challenges of navigating a world where traditional hedging strategies in markets like fixed income are becoming increasingly difficult. With insights into market sentiment and potential counter-trend rallies, this episode provides a thought-provoking look at the complexities facing investors right now.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Cem on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    01:19 - What has caught our attention recently?

    06:39 - Industry performance update

    08:34 - Long term skew in vol markets is causing trouble

    13:41 - Approaching OPEX - what is in sight?

    21:28 - Does a strong S&P500 performance indicate an incoming crisis?

    24:08 - Are we approaching a counter trend rally?

    26:33 - It's getting hard to hedge

    35:16 - Investors are long without realizing it

    38:34 - We need a shadow Fed President

    43:23 - We are in a leadership vacuum

    47:58 - Early signs of improvement in China?

    55:31 - Will Elon Musk change the narrative around China?

    59:02 - What is up for next week?

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    11 January 2025, 6:00 am
  • 1 hour 44 minutes
    TTU147: How to Craft a Rich Life Beyond Money ft. William Green

    William Green, author of the book "Richer, Wiser, Happier", returns to the podcast for an eye opening conversation centered around the complexities of investing and the importance of building a rich life beyond mere financial success. We explore the idea that true wealth encompasses autonomy, meaningful relationships, and personal growth, rather than just monetary accumulation. Throughout the discussion, William shares lessons learned from interviewing some of the greatest investors, emphasizing the significance of self-awareness and understanding one’s biases in decision-making. We also touch on the current landscape of investing, including the dominance of U.S. equities and the implications of artificial intelligence in the financial world. By weaving in personal anecdotes and stories, William illustrate how to navigate uncertainty and position oneself for long-term success while maintaining a focus on what truly matters in life.

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    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow William on X and read his book.

    Episode Timestamps:

    01:42 - Catching up since our last conversation

    07:22 - The importance of having connection and belonging along the path

    13:51 - The power of friendships

    20:21 - A key component to achieve success

    22:20 - The pitfalls of becoming successful

    26:47 - How psychology influences investment decisions and how to overcome biases

    34:23 - Common biases among successful investors

    41:10 - How we can broaden our perspective to include happiness in our perception of wealth

    51:45 - Advice to become a healthy successful investor

    56:58 - How to set yourself up to survive economic downturns

    01:05:00 - How successful investors avoid being taken out of the game

    01:11:15 - How successful investors use AI in their investment strategies

    01:15:31 - How we can use storytelling to demystify complex financial topics

    01:25:25 - Green's advice for other investors

    01:31:53 - How different will the future actually be from the past?

    01:38:57 - How do you identify ideas and lessons that really matters

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

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    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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    8 January 2025, 4:45 am
  • 1 hour 28 minutes
    SI329: CTAs: Innovation Meets Legacy & the BlackRock Effect ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel

    Together with Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel, we dive deep into the evolving landscape of managed futures and CTAs, highlighting the critical need for a narrative shift to better communicate their value to investors. Andrew and Tom discuss the challenges faced by allocators in understanding the unique benefits of trend-following strategies, especially amidst a backdrop of changing market dynamics. They explore the implications of BlackRock's recent move to launch an actively managed manager ETF, which could significantly impact how managed futures are perceived and allocated within investment portfolios. The conversation also touches on the potential for new ESG-compliant products that could attract investors reluctant to engage with traditional commodity exposure. With insights into the current market environment and the importance of adaptability, this episode provides valuable perspectives for anyone interested in systematic investing and the future of CTAs.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Andrew on Twitter.

    Follow Tom on LinkedIn.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    01:20 - Our expectations going into 2025

    07:00 - What to do when bonds are collapsing

    10:21 - Industry performance update

    11:49 - A deep dive into indices

    17:36 - The mechanisms behind creating an index

    23:13 - What returns can you expect from a CTA replication index?

    27:21 - What are the average fees in today's indices?

    30:31 - The benefits of replication

    34:04 - The drivers of replication strategies

    40:50 - How CTA replicators handle inflection points

    43:11 - What happens to an index if its underlying model changes

    50:21 - Do trend followers in general make big changes to their models?

    52:30 - How the AUM landscape has evolved

    57:06 - Can you replicate a pod shop?

    01:03:02 - Why many allocators are missing out on trend following

    01:11:57 - What is going on with Blackrock?

    01:15:29 - Big news from Andrew

    01:21:05 - The challenges of complying with ESG metrics

    01:23:58 - It's all about the narrative

    01:26:48 - What is up for next week?

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    4 January 2025, 5:45 am
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