Trend Following | Hedge Funds | Global Macro | Geo-Politics | Commodities | Quant Investing | Crypto | Volatility
This part 1 of 2 episode features a compelling roundtable discussion among all of our incredible co-hosts here at TopTradersUnplugged, where we reflect on the key takeaways of 2024. The main focus is on the significant return dispersion observed in the trend-following community throughout 2024, where performance varied dramatically among managers. We explore the factors contributing to this dispersion, such as differences in speed, market universe, and the impact of discretionary de-risking strategies. Additionally, we examine the influence of macroeconomic changes, particularly the effects of Federal Reserve policies, on market trends and investor behavior. As the conversation unfolds, we also share insights and personal reflections on our investment strategies and predictions for 2025.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Nick on LinkedIn.
Follow Richard on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:22 - Introduction to the group conversations
02:33 - A trend following recap of 2024
13:07 - A new president - how does it impact geopolitics?
17:21 - What role crowding has played in 2024
24:00 - Do less liquid markets trend more?
32:32 - Have markets become less efficient over time?
40:28 - Are we actually using AI in our work?
46:00 - What was the biggest mistake we learned in 2024?
49:21 - Why have we experienced such a high dispersion in 2024?
57:05 - Wrapping up
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to review his Roaring 2020s thesis for the US economy. Ed makes a compelling case for sustained economic growth, driven by rising productivity gains fuelled by technological advancements. The discussion covers expectations for the policy mix under the incoming Trump administration, including how fiscal developments could influence the Federal Reserve's actions. The conversation also examines developments in the bond markets, exploring whether meaningful deficit reductions can keep the bond vigilantes at bay. He shares his optimistic outlook on the stock market, despite elevated valuations, high concentration in the S&P 500 and speculative behaviour in certain areas. Finally, Ed offers his perspective on gold and questions whether Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are merely the modern equivalent of “digital tulips.”
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Ed on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:14 - (Re)Introduction to Ed Yardeni
04:51 - How the incoming U.S. administration will impact the economy
07:55 - Has Trump fought back the bond vigilantes?
10:52 - Was the Fed cut unnecessary?
13:20 - Strange decisions from the Fed
16:14 - Will the Fed be true to their words?
17:57 - Will inflation become sticky?
19:29 - Yardeni's perspective on the neutral rate
22:27 - The roaring 20's scenario
25:46 - What is fuelling the productivity?
30:12 - The data behind productivity
31:58 - Is the U.S industrial advantage part of the productivity story?
33:20 - What can we learn from 80s and 90's productivity boom?
36:42 - How is international policy playing out in the U.S?
40:40 - Yardeni's outlook for the stock market
43:43 - Is a recession unavoidable?
45:40 - What happens to the economy when we enter a recession?
48:27 - Yardeni's perspective on bitcoin
52:19 - Why play with gold when you have crypto?
54:10 - Don't mess with the bond vigilantes
57:42 - Where can you following Yardeni's work?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Today, we examine the intriguing dynamics of systematic investing, focusing on the theme of volatility sizing and its implications for trend following strategies. We discuss how volatility often expands during profitable trades, highlighting the importance of managing risk through dynamic sizing compared to static approaches. We explore the interplay between equities and managed futures, emphasizing how these strategies can complement each other while navigating the complexities of correlation risk. As we look ahead to 2025, the conversation touches on broader economic themes, including inflation volatility and its potential impact on investment strategies. With insights from recent research, the episode provides valuable perspectives for investors seeking to understand the evolving landscape of systematic investing.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:05 - What has caught our attention recently?
02:13 - Industry performance update
03:48 - Our takeaways from 2024
09:20 - How different speed has performed in different markets
13:25 - Has market correlation been lower than usual this year?
14:15 - Concluding on 2024
15:55 - Interesting news in the ETF space
18:29 - Key takeaways from the Hedge Nordic Roundtable 2024
20:18 - Optimism for the managed futures space?
23:10 - A historical perspective on volatility sizing
30:50 - How different styles of trend following work and perform
35:51 - When is long vol a good strategy to use?
37:41 - The challenges of trend following as a strategy
41:36 - Our perspective on running portable alpha
49:15 - Where does portable alpha sit in a portfolio?
51:59 - Tweaking your trend following portfolio to accommodate equities
54:06 - Thoughts on going into 2025
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Alan Dunne welcomes Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, to this episode for a thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Together, they explore the structural challenges facing Europe and whether the current wave of pessimism is overstated. Paul highlights how data mismeasurement contributes to the gap between perception and reality while acknowledging the hurdles for productivity growth in Europe. They also consider whether comparisons between Europe’s economic trajectory and Japan’s stagnation are valid and discuss the prospects for U.S. growth under President Trump. The conversation also examines the recent inflation cycle, the potential effects of new U.S. tariffs on inflation, and the implications for Federal Reserve policy.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Paul on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:28 - Introduction to Paul Donovan
06:02 - The state of the European economy
09:19 - The notion of fairness is changing
13:55 - Can a new economic model emerge?
18:54 - Has Europe become Japanified?
22:21 - Should Europe worry about lagging behind on tech?
29:04 - An economic plague in the UK
34:02 - How can economists address the happiness of the people
38:15 - What have the cost of things stayed high?
44:32 - The potential for supply side economics
49:48 - Why tariffs are inflationary
52:21 - How bad can the tariffs war get?
56:18 - How tariffs could impact interest rates
59:00 - How will the rest of the decade look in terms of growth and inflation?
01:01:30 - Advice for other economists
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Today, together with Graham Robertson of MAN AHL, we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following and its relationship with current market conditions, particularly influenced by central bank actions. We examine how trend followers have navigated recent volatility and the challenges posed by fluctuating interest rate expectations. We highlight the significance of understanding correlation trends among different asset classes and the importance of diversifying strategies in enhancing portfolio resilience. The discussion also touches on the complexities of trend following strategies and the necessity for clearer communication to investors about their benefits. As we explore the evolving landscape of systematic investing, the episode underscores the need for adaptive strategies in an unpredictable economic environment.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:52 - What has caught our attention recently?
02:04 - Are single stocks signaling trouble?
05:00 - Major divergence in market performance globally
08:06 - Industry performance update
09:06 - Our key observations from 2024
11:24 - Advice for getting your market capacity right
15:33 - Our thoughts on trading speed
17:14 - Don't get too caught up on specific narratives
18:38 - Industry performance numbers
20:02 - How Idiosyncratic risk works
26:55 - Setting up the optimal defense
28:31 - Don't be scared of "days like that"
32:21 - Troublemakers in the class room
38:58 - TINA is back in global markets - but with a makeover
40:45 - Our thoughts on the upcoming U.S administration
43:37 - How do we get trend following into our portfolios?
48:33 - The challenges of propagating trend following
51:53 - How to approach market capacity the right way
55:34 - Different times call for different markets
58:47 - Accents are causing trouble for AI
01:00:03 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Our guest on this episode is Dr. Daniel Crosby, New York Times bestselling author and Chief Behavioral Officer at Orion Advisor Solutions. Daniel joins us to discuss his new book - The Soul of Wealth: 50 Reflections on Money and Meaning. We discuss simple actions everyone can take to apply the lessons of behavioral finance to their own investing - actions that have a shockingly large impact on wealth accumulation. Daniel talks about why even the most experienced professional investors might benefit from having a financial advisor and how new research on willpower can help us be more effective investors. We end with an overview of Daniel’s new research on the three principles that seem to drive the most purposeful lives.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Daniel on LinkedIn and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 - Introduction to Daniel Crosby
07:55 - What caused Crosby to write his book?
11:28 - How would Crosby like people to read his book?
13:40 - Does there exist a perfect moment to invest?
17:19 - Crosby's perspective on valuations
21:08 - Does it makes sense to use financial advisors?
25:33 - Taking the worst case off the table
30:00 - How to achieve psychological, financial safety with a low budget
32:25 - The relationship between fees and performance
34:47 - Giving your accounts a purpose
38:04 - The name of your accounts matters
41:23 - We have been wrong about will power
45:01 - Off-loading your mental bandwidth
46:42 - The cheat meal of your financial life
48:03 - Are we thinking too much about happiness?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Today, we dive deep into the complex dynamics of global markets and the often overlooked risks that can accumulate during periods of apparent stability. Together with Richard Brennan, we discuss the rising concerns over declining fertility rates worldwide, highlighting how economic pressures, environmental challenges, and cultural shifts contribute to this seismic change. We draw parallels between these demographic trends and the unpredictability of financial markets, emphasizing the importance of adaptive strategies in navigating uncertainty. The conversation also touches on the limitations of traditional risk management models, advocating for a shift towards frameworks that prioritize resilience and adaptability. In this episode you will gain valuable insights into how both personal and economic landscapes can evolve and respond to changing conditions.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:37 - What has caught our attention recently?
07:20 - Is now the best time to allocate to alternatives?
12:14 - Industry performance update
17:58 - How we manage uncertainty in "chaotic systems"
25:55 - How to translate ensemble models to trend following
28:25 - The benefits of adding more trend following models
34:10 - It takes guts to be a greedy pig
37:04 - The hidden risks of financial markets
48:47 - Why Value at Risk (VaR) models makes more sense than having stops
56:35 - The inevitable outcome of cycles
01:06:40 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Keith McCullough, Founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an in-depth look into Keith’s distinctive approach to global macro analysis and tactical trading. The conversation explores Keith’s background as a hedge fund manager and his views on how markets have evolved, especially in relation to option flows. Keith breaks down his four-quadrant framework for macro analysis, explaining how pinpointing the economy’s position within these quadrants is as much an art as it is a science. His framework currently signals continued strength in the US dollar and US equities. A fundamental aspect of Keith’s approach is his respect for market signals and the need for these signals to confirm his macro views. He also shares valuable insights into the behavioural challenges of investing and emphasizes the importance of a disciplined, repeatable process to drive long-term success.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Keith on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:23 - Introduction to Keith McCullough
05:01 - From hedge fund to research
07:29 - Being a retail investor is an insult
09:56 - How McCullough has reacted to the rise of 0DTE options
13:48 - Have stocks become more macro driven?
15:54 - Where are we currently in the 4 quads?
19:22 - The challenge of lag in macro signals
21:26 - McCullough's framework for monitoring signals
24:25 - When can herding be a distraction?
26:54 - The current market from a quad perspective
31:09 - Reassessing the narrative of the deficits
35:50 - The outlook of the dollar
38:16 - The (un?)importance of valuations
41:07 - How the state of China influences McCulloughs model and framework
43:15 - Getting on the right side of the K
45:12 - The market from the 3 pots perspective
48:33 - Developing a respect for the markets
52:07 - McCullough's advice for preserving your wealth
56:01 - McCullough's philosophy to investing
58:33 - McCullough's perspective on systematic trend following
59:50 - Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Together with Cem Karsan we explore the current investment landscape, with a particular emphasis on the volatility and dispersion of market correlations as we approach the end of the year. We discuss how a compression of volatility at the index level can lead to increased idiosyncratic risk for individual stocks, creating opportunities for savvy investors. We explore the implications of regime shifts and how geopolitical factors, particularly related to the new U.S. administration, could influence market dynamics. The conversation also touches on the historical context of populism in politics and its potential impact on financial markets, suggesting that upcoming months may reveal significant volatility, particularly in fixed income and currency markets. With insights into sectors like gold and evolving trends in cryptocurrencies, we provide a comprehensive overview of what investors should keep an eye on as they navigate this complex environment.
Add to Show Notes
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - What has caught our attention recently?
05:50 - Industry performance update
07:58 - Q1, Adam: What are your thoughts about trading efficiency in VIX futures trading?
09:30 - How volatility compression evolves going into 2025
17:42 - How you take advantage of the volatility compression
26:14 - How Cem acurately forecasted this year's market rallys and his predictions for 2025
39:34 - When does Cem think the current populist period began?
48:22 - How inflation and interest rates have impacted the rise of populism
55:31 - How the gold market has evolved over the recent years
59:12 - Cem's outlook for Bitcoin and crypto currencies
01:03:59 - Is Donald Trump a threat to populism?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
In today’s episode Moritz Seibert is joined by Jerome Callut, one of the founders of DCM Systematic, a quantitative hedge fund based in Geneva, Switzerland. DCM Systematic aims to produce returns that are uncorrelated to trend following CTAs by pursuing a different path to alpha. In fact, the team around Jerome is very much focused on avoiding getting into trend following trades. Instead, they emphasize strategies which anticipate the flows of other traders and use several behavior-based models to distinguish themselves from the SG CTA index and other industry benchmarks. Jerome and Moritz speak discuss generic trade examples and Jerome explains why pro-active and re-active risk management is very important for them.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Linkedin.
Follow Jerome on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:21 - Introduction to Jerome Callut
03:52 - Why they use non-trend following models
08:42 - What would happen if they added a trend following component to their model?
09:57 - The 3 categories of their trading system
11:11 - Category 1, Behavioural: Anticipating the flows and trades of other traders
15:35 - An example of how they handle flow
18:35 - Did Callut anticipate the unwind of the Japanese Yen carry trade?
21:51 - Exploiting the skid marks in the markets
23:53 - Category 2: Relative value and spread trading
29:37 - Collecting the roll down yield
31:12 - Is Callut also engaging in a short VIX positioning?
36:59 - Proactive and reactive management
38:33 - What could happen after Volmageddon?
40:42 - How they implement reactive management
41:37 - Category 3: Macro trades
46:37 - What role does automation play at DCM Systematic?
48:36 - How they implement AI and machine learning
53:38 - A work in progress
54:46 - Working with a moving target
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
In this episode, Mark Rzepczynski joins Alan Dunne to explore narratives, rationality, and behavioral uncertainty, particularly in the context of trend following. They discuss recent market trends in the wake of the election, with a focus on bond market movements. Mark shares insights on the current stage of the risk cycle and whether we’re witnessing an excessive buildup of leverage in the financial system. The conversation also delves into two fascinating studies: one on the significance of having access to the news and accurate information in trading, and another on how equity analysts forecast earnings—both with implications for trend following strategies. Finally, they examine the narratives currently shaping markets and debate whether trend following can be considered a source of “unpredictable alpha.”
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:39 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:43 - Industry performance update
10:17 - New times for bonds
14:37 - The issue is always in the details
19:02 - What is driving markets at the moment?
22:36 - The perspective on treasuries is changing
26:34 - Trend followers are going crypto
29:22 - Does crypto make sense in trend following?
30:47 - Where are we in the risk cycle?
34:57 - How spikes in credit spreads have impacted leverage
38:16 - Does "perfect information" exist?
43:27 - A kind and a wicked environment
45:56 - Why Mark tries to avoid causal influence in economics
48:50 - Get your position size right or go bankrupt
50:31 - Trailing PE - the secret sauce of successful analysts?
55:18 - How narrative impacts the stock market
58:37 - Discussing recent market action through the narrative lens
01:01:26 - Trend following - an unpredictable alpha?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
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