Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Trend Following | Hedge Funds | Global Macro | Geo-Politics | Commodities | Quant Investing | Crypto | Volatility

  • 1 hour 13 minutes
    SI323: From Politics to Profits: How Regime Changes Affect Your Portfolio ft. Cem Karsan

    Together with Cem Karsan we explore the current investment landscape, with a particular emphasis on the volatility and dispersion of market correlations as we approach the end of the year. We discuss how a compression of volatility at the index level can lead to increased idiosyncratic risk for individual stocks, creating opportunities for savvy investors. We explore the implications of regime shifts and how geopolitical factors, particularly related to the new U.S. administration, could influence market dynamics. The conversation also touches on the historical context of populism in politics and its potential impact on financial markets, suggesting that upcoming months may reveal significant volatility, particularly in fixed income and currency markets. With insights into sectors like gold and evolving trends in cryptocurrencies, we provide a comprehensive overview of what investors should keep an eye on as they navigate this complex environment.

    Add to Show Notes

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    EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

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    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Cem on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:22 - What has caught our attention recently?

    05:50 - Industry performance update

    07:58 - Q1, Adam: What are your thoughts about trading efficiency in VIX futures trading?

    09:30 - How volatility compression evolves going into 2025

    17:42 - How you take advantage of the volatility compression

    26:14 - How Cem acurately forecasted this year's market rallys and his predictions for 2025

    39:34 - When does Cem think the current populist period began?

    48:22 - How inflation and interest rates have impacted the rise of populism

    55:31 - How the gold market has evolved over the recent years

    59:12 - Cem's outlook for Bitcoin and crypto currencies

    01:03:59 - Is Donald Trump a threat to populism?

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    23 November 2024, 6:00 am
  • 58 minutes 2 seconds
    OI11: Avoiding the Herd: A Different Path to Alpha ft. Jerome Callut

    In today’s episode Moritz Seibert is joined by Jerome Callut, one of the founders of DCM Systematic, a quantitative hedge fund based in Geneva, Switzerland. DCM Systematic aims to produce returns that are uncorrelated to trend following CTAs by pursuing a different path to alpha. In fact, the team around Jerome is very much focused on avoiding getting into trend following trades. Instead, they emphasize strategies which anticipate the flows of other traders and use several behavior-based models to distinguish themselves from the SG CTA index and other industry benchmarks. Jerome and Moritz speak discuss generic trade examples and Jerome explains why pro-active and re-active risk management is very important for them.

    -----

    EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Moritz on Linkedin.

    Follow Jerome on LinkedIn.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:21 - Introduction to Jerome Callut

    03:52 - Why they use non-trend following models

    08:42 - What would happen if they added a trend following component to their model?

    09:57 - The 3 categories of their trading system

    11:11 - Category 1, Behavioural: Anticipating the flows and trades of other traders

    15:35 - An example of how they handle flow

    18:35 - Did Callut anticipate the unwind of the Japanese Yen carry trade?

    21:51 - Exploiting the skid marks in the markets

    23:53 - Category 2: Relative value and spread trading

    29:37 - Collecting the roll down yield

    31:12 - Is Callut also engaging in a short VIX positioning?

    36:59 - Proactive and reactive management

    38:33 - What could happen after Volmageddon?

    40:42 - How they implement reactive management

    41:37 - Category 3: Macro trades

    46:37 - What role does automation play at DCM Systematic?

    48:36 - How they implement AI and machine learning

    53:38 - A work in progress

    54:46 - Working with a moving target

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    20 November 2024, 7:00 am
  • 1 hour 7 minutes
    SI322: Market Narratives and the Unpredictable Alpha ft. Mark Rzepczynski

    In this episode, Mark Rzepczynski joins Alan Dunne to explore narratives, rationality, and behavioral uncertainty, particularly in the context of trend following. They discuss recent market trends in the wake of the election, with a focus on bond market movements. Mark shares insights on the current stage of the risk cycle and whether we’re witnessing an excessive buildup of leverage in the financial system. The conversation also delves into two fascinating studies: one on the significance of having access to the news and accurate information in trading, and another on how equity analysts forecast earnings—both with implications for trend following strategies. Finally, they examine the narratives currently shaping markets and debate whether trend following can be considered a source of “unpredictable alpha.”

    -----

    EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Mark on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:39 - What has been on our radar recently?

    05:43 - Industry performance update

    10:17 - New times for bonds

    14:37 - The issue is always in the details

    19:02 - What is driving markets at the moment?

    22:36 - The perspective on treasuries is changing

    26:34 - Trend followers are going crypto

    29:22 - Does crypto make sense in trend following?

    30:47 - Where are we in the risk cycle?

    34:57 - How spikes in credit spreads have impacted leverage

    38:16 - Does "perfect information" exist?

    43:27 - A kind and a wicked environment

    45:56 - Why Mark tries to avoid causal influence in economics

    48:50 - Get your position size right or go bankrupt

    50:31 - Trailing PE - the secret sauce of successful analysts?

    55:18 - How narrative impacts the stock market

    58:37 - Discussing recent market action through the narrative lens

    01:01:26 - Trend following - an unpredictable alpha?

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    16 November 2024, 2:00 pm
  • 54 minutes 46 seconds
    IL32: Unpacking Inflation: What History Teaches Us About Today's Economy ft. Carola Binder

    Today we share an engaging discussion with Carola Binder, who explores the intricate relationship between inflation and democracy in the United States. Binder argues that inflation has been a crucial part of economic debate since the nation’s founding, intertwined with the political landscape and the fate of democracy itself. She highlights the significant divergence in inflation expectations between Republicans and Democrats, particularly during the Biden presidency, where rising inflation expectations were predominantly driven by Republicans. The conversation delves into how historical perspectives on inflation have shifted, from concerns about devaluation and price stability to modern debates on monetary policy and the role of central banks. Binder also examines the implications of these dynamics for future inflation and the credibility of the Federal Reserve, providing insights that resonate with current economic challenges.

    -----

    EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

    Follow Carola on LinkedIn and read her book.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:14 - Introduction to Carola Binder

    03:20 - How did she approach her research?

    07:55 - What does inflation historically mean?

    11:19 - How the view on paper money has changed over time

    16:25 - How the role of the Fed has evolved historically

    22:35 - How gold has impacted the

    24:17 - Controlling paper money - advancing democracy or centralizing power?

    29:16 - Is 2% inflation the wrong target?

    35:27 - Incorporating asset prices into central bank decision making

    40:29 - How does Binder measure inflation expectations?

    47:10 - Has inflation expectations risen since the Covid19 period?

    49:57 - Does the high governmental debt imply a high inflation period ahead?

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    13 November 2024, 1:00 am
  • 1 hour 2 minutes
    SI321: Post Election - Why Trends Matter More Than Ever ft. Alan Dunne

    Together with Alan Dunne, we delve into the shifting landscape of systematic investing, highlighting the growing use of quant based strategies as well as AI and machine learning in portfolio management. The discussion also emphasizes the significant impact of concentration within the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs now predicting that this could lead to lower returns for traditional equity investments in the coming decade. We explore various economic themes, and note the challenges facing Europe compared to the optimism in the US markets. We also reflect on the recent elections and their implications for future economic policies. The conversation wraps up with insights on trend following strategies and how they can enhance portfolio diversification, particularly in a climate of rising yields and market volatility.

    -----

    EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    01:05 - What has caught our attention recently?

    03:17 - Dark times ahead for Europe?

    06:26 - An analysis of the election

    11:46 - Niels' thoughts on the election outcome

    14:58 - Alan's thoughts on the election outcome

    18:11 - A global macro perspective

    28:00 - Has the election outcome any effect on the US deficits?

    31:39 - Industry performance update

    37:19 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it might make sense to replace bonds with outcome-defined or buffered ETFs. Any thoughts?

    37:33 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it might make sense to replace bonds with outcome-defined or buffered ETFs. Any thoughts?

    41:56 - Is Goldman Sachs changing their strategy?

    48:38 - The role of trend following in an unpredictable market

    53:45 - How systematic investing has become integral in portfolio construction

    57:54 - Systematic - an overlooked word

    59:21 - The mystery paper - a teaser

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    8 November 2024, 12:45 pm
  • 1 hour 1 minute
    GM74: Navigating the Bond Market: What You Need to Know About Recent Trends ft. Stephen Miran

    Stephen Miran, Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital and Fellow at the Manhattan Institute joins Alan Dunne in this episode to explore the bond market outlook and broader economic trends. They delve into an influential paper Steve co-authored with Nouriel Roubini on Activist Treasury Issuance, examining how Treasury actions may have countered some of the Fed's monetary tightening this year. Steve shares his insights on the economy's current state, his view that the Fed may have erred with its recent 50 basis point cut, and how the upcoming election could shape economic policy. While much focus has been on potential tariff impacts under a Trump administration, Steve highlights the possible benefits of supply-side measures. The conversation also covers the drivers behind the rise in bond yields since the Fed’s rate cut and the medium-term outlook for fiscal policy and bonds.

    -----

    EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Follow Stephen on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:25 - Introduction to Steve Miran

    05:53 - Why did Miran write his paper on Activist Treasury Issuance?

    10:24 - How Quantitative Easing and Exchange Traded Instruments work

    15:26 - Treasury is not a market timer

    17:39 - Getting lost in the Fed jargon

    21:06 - What is driving the increasing yields?

    24:38 - The refunding - Miran's expectations

    27:26 - The state of the labour market

    32:48 - How is Fed handling the economy at the moment?

    34:21 - What is plausible range for the neutral rate?

    37:07 - Is there a better way to run policy?

    40:42 - The economic impact of the election outcome

    45:54 - The challenges of regulatory policy

    48:57 - Who will be the Treasury Secretary?

    50:14 - Will a win for Trump mean bigger concerns for the deficits?

    53:49 - The outlook for fixed income

    56:07 - Geopolitical concerns

    57:37 - Advice for other investors

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    6 November 2024, 4:00 am
  • 1 hour 4 minutes
    SI320: Bonds: The Voldemort of Asset Allocation ft. Andrew Beer

    In this week’s episode, Andrew Beer joins Alan Dunne to dive into the evolution of hedge funds, mutual funds, and ETFs within the managed futures space. Andrew give his perspective on the architecture of the CTA industry from the perspective of asset raising and the role that a diverse investor base plays in shaping product offerings within the sector. The conversation explores how liquid alternative investments compare with traditional hedge funds, examining what recent performance trends reveal about each. They also discuss the influence of narrative in CTA selection and analyse the resurgence of portable alpha and the growing interest in return stacking strategies, inspired by a recent Bloomberg article.

    -----

    EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Andrew on Twitter.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    01:13 - What has caught our attention recently?

    03:30 - Industry performance update

    04:48 - Andrew's perspective on the last few months

    11:11 - Insights from the Hedge Nordic Event

    16:49 - Picking the right managers

    19:57 - A Hunger Games mentality

    26:53 - Different products for different market segments

    33:31 - Are hedge funds better than mutual funds?

    43:20 - What we know about the performance of ETFs vs mutual funds

    46:33 - Will replicators become more prominent?

    53:49 - Tell me what you love

    57:24 - Bonds are like the Voldemort of asset allocation

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    2 November 2024, 12:00 pm
  • 59 minutes 13 seconds
    GM73: Debt, Deficits, and the Road Ahead ft. Jason Furman

    Jason Furman, Professor of Economics at Harvard and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Obama, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to share his thoughts on the current economic outlook. They explore the recent improvement in the inflation data, whether the Fed is justified in claiming victory in its inflation fight and the likely trajectory for inflation over the next year. On monetary policy, Jason expects further rate cuts from the Fed this year but is sceptical about how much additional easing we may see next year. That ‘s partially because he sees a higher neutral policy rate and partly because high fiscal deficits looks set to remain a feature of the next administration. Looking further ahead Jason offers his thoughts on the longer term growth outlook, the likelihood of an AI-led productivity boom, the pros and cons of active industrial policy and whether persistent fiscal deficits might eventually lead to a debt crisis.

    -----

    EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Follow Jason on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:10 - Introduction to Jason Furman

    04:28 - The state of the economy

    04:42 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?

    06:01 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?

    09:40 - The outlook for inflation

    12:34 - A move in the right direction?

    14:34 - Is the neutral rate a useful concept?

    17:35 - The risk of being too sensitive to current data

    21:05 - Is the shift towards transparency actually positive?

    22:28 - Is the economy too complicated to forecast?

    23:44 - Is the era of ultra low rates behind us?

    26:46 - Furman's thoughts on the U.S deficits

    28:29 - Has the Treasury managed the situation right?

    31:34 - Will the political environment change due to larger acceptance to deficits?

    34:46 - Will Powell and Trump be able to communicate?

    36:32 - A win for Trump = the end of the Fed?

    37:57 - Is the Fed in danger?

    39:24 - Will the increasing debt levels cause quantitative easing?

    40:54 - Productivity - reasons to be optimistic?

    43:57 - Is AI a threat to employment?

    45:25 - Furman's perspective on the industrial policy

    49:33 - Are we going too far in the wrong direction?

    51:06 - China's influence on the global economy

    54:05 - The outlook of economical growth

    55:38 - Is Europe in trouble?

    57:12 - Advice for other investors

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    30 October 2024, 12:00 pm
  • 1 hour 21 minutes
    SI319: The Surprising Factors Behind CTA Performance: Is Less More? ft. Rob Carver

    Today, we delve into the nuances of systematic investing with Rob Carver, focusing on the concept of replication in trend-following strategies. The discussion contrasts different approaches to replication, highlighting the potential pitfalls of return-based methods that attempt to mimic established indices. We emphasize that simply increasing the number of markets in a portfolio may not lead to better diversification, as it could ultimately expose investors to similar risk factors. We also explore the implications of a recent paper from Newfound Research, which uses random data to challenge traditional views on replication effectiveness. With insights on factors influencing CTA performance and the importance of understanding true diversification, this conversation offers valuable perspectives for both investors and practitioners in the systematic trading space.

    -----

    EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Rob on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:57 - What has caught our attention recently?

    05:55 - Should trend followers lower their horizon?

    09:26 - The AI CTA's are being tracked

    10:37 - An economic Kayfabe

    13:58 - Are interest rates approaching a Minsky moment?

    18:44 - Industry performance update

    20:33 - Q1, CryptoCaptainX3: How do you manage intraday adverse price movement risk while running a daily system?

    25:43 - Q1.1 CryptoCaptainX3: How to manage overnight gap risk for futures instruments which trade only 6 hours a day?

    26:13 - Q1.2 CryptoCaptainX3: Can you trade directional strategies but instead of using futures, use options. What are the pros and cons of this?

    30:55 - Q2, Taylor: How do you think about position rebalancing, and the tradeoff between maintaining your desired risk allocation versus minimizing transaction cost?

    34:22 - Q3, Richard: "Position Inertia", a method of avoiding frequent small trades by widening the target to 10% above and below the desired position. Have you considered varying this parameter depending on the estimated trading costs of the instrument?

    36:01 - Q3.1 Richard: I currently use a rolling 10 year window of weekly returns to forecast correlations between futures instruments as you suggest in a blog post in 2020. Do you think there would be any value in applying an exponential smoothing to the correlation forecasts?

    41:13 - Q4 Michael: How do you monitor that your systems are runnings normally intra-day, without checking the performance?

    43:48 - Q5 Richard: How to dynamically allocate capital between different strategies in a live systematic system, given dozens of strategies, all with changing performance over time.

    45:33 - Q6: Cloud: Are there any ways or optimizations to pick the right strategies and right instruments (profitable)?

    47:38 - Is "less is more" applicable when it comes to market selection?

    59:26 - The promises and pitfalls of replication strategies

    01:13:30 - A mixed up narrative - do they truly replicate performance?

    01:20:00 - What is up for next week?

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    25 October 2024, 7:00 pm
  • 1 hour 15 minutes
    OI10: The Untold Side of the Turtle Trading Legacy ft. Bill Eckhardt & Rob Sorrentino

    In his first podcast episode ever, Bill Eckhardt emphasizes that successful trading hinges more on risk control than on predicting market movements, a theme that resonates throughout his conversation with Moritz Siebert and Rob Sorrentino. The episode explores Eckhardt's journey from the renowned Turtle trading experiment to his current systematic trading strategies at Eckhardt Trading Company. The conversation provides insights into the evolution of trading strategies, the importance of maintaining emotional discipline, and the necessity of adapting to changing market conditions. The discussion also delves into the challenges of overfitting in trading models and the significant role that robust statistical methods play in managing risk. With anecdotes about the unique characteristics of traders and the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio, this episode offers a fascinating look into the mind of a trading legend and the principles that guide his enduring success.

    -----

    EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Learn more about Eckhardt Trading Company here.

    Follow Moritz on Linkedin.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:30 - Introduction

    03:59 - Eckhardt's relationship to Richard Dennis

    06:34 - Can trading be taught?

    08:50 - The story behind the trading rules

    12:32 - What characterises Eckhardt Trading?

    13:44 - How did their perception of risk change over the years?

    22:01 - Why they focus on short term trading

    27:25 - How they use volatility in their trading

    32:49 - Do they utilize other methods than trend following?

    34:05 - Why do they avoid trade summary statistics?

    40:26 - How they control overfitting and underfitting

    45:37 - How they use "the gauntlet" to test systems

    49:12 - How many markets do they trade and why?

    53:57 - Why they don't trade single stocks

    56:28 - Their view on replication strategies

    01:05:23 - Evaluating the success of systems

    01:08:02 - What are the most important things to avoid when designing trend following systems?

    01:08:47 - The future of trend following

    01:11:11 - Criticise ideas, not people

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    23 October 2024, 5:00 am
  • 1 hour 2 minutes
    SI318: How Trend Following Changes with Interest Rates ft. Katy Kaminski

    Join Katy and I as we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following in the context of changing interest rates. We cover how trend-following strategies can be a valuable addition to investment portfolios, especially in high-rate environments where traditional fixed income may offer diminished diversification benefits. Katy shares insights from her latest paper, which explores the performance of trend-following strategies during various economic crises, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in turbulent markets. The conversation also touches on the recent Nobel Prize buzz surrounding MIT and its implications for innovation in finance, as well as review the latest quarterly insights from Quantica. As we navigate through market trends, you are encouraged to consider how a well-allocated trend-following strategy can enhance portfolio resilience amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.

    -----

    EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to [email protected]

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    01:06 - What has caught our attention recently?

    04:01 - What is going on with Danske Commodities?

    06:29 - Energy traders are the new star athletes

    07:47 - Industry performance update

    09:55 - How has 2024 treated us so far?

    13:58 - The implications of major regime transitions

    18:33 - What made Katy write her paper, "Trend Following in a Defensive Rotation"?

    24:22 - How has fixed income behaved over a long period of time?

    29:02 - How does trend following portfolios react to the correlation between stocks and bonds?

    33:27 - Katy's thoughts on the large dispersion between managers this year

    36:44 - Can you use carry trading with the SG Trend Index?

    39:48 - Timing trends is a fool's game

    42:31 - Bill Eckhardt is coming on the podcast next week!

    43:35 - The outlook for trend following

    46:42 - How do trend following strategies perform in different interest rate environments

    52:15 - Do investors agree with the findings of the Quantica paper?

    55:31 - Are investors disappointed about the trend following performance?

    01:00:40 - What is up for next week?

    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer

    19 October 2024, 2:00 am
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