Keith challenges the belief that all debt is bad and reframes it as a tool for building wealth when used intentionally.

He contrasts destructive consumer debt with productive investment debt, especially in real estate, and explains how inflation, long-term fixed-rate loans, and rental income can work together to grow net worth.

Keith explores the mindset shift from prioritizing safety and being debt-free to pursuing growth through leverage, highlights the opportunity cost of avoiding debt, and offers practical guidelines for using borrowing rationally rather than emotionally.

He also shows how modern economies and many wealthy individuals rely on strategic debt, positioning it as a key part of a more intentional, asset-focused version of the American Dream.

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Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:00

welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith weinholder, there's bad debt, good debt and great debt. Are you using debt wisely, and are you ensuring that you stay in debt? Because debt is the American dream today, on get rich education milestone episode 600

Corey Coates 0:23

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard in every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Keith Weinhold 1:06

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com

Speaker 1 1:40

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:56

Welcome to GRE from Kennewick, Washington at Kennebunkport, Maine and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are inside get rich education. Yes, America's favorite slack jawed mammal on a microphone has got his act back on track, for your listening pleasure, since 2014 This is our 600th wealth building week in a row, you've been misled, not maliciously, not even intentionally, but somewhere along the way, a really expensive idea got planted inside your head, and it was once planted inside my head, that debt is bad, just blanketly bad, that the goal is to be debt free, that owing money to somebody else is something to escape as fast as possible. And look, I get it, if your mindset is in the old middle class consumer credit world like mine was for much of my life, debt feels heavy, it feels like risk, it feels like obligation, but the people telling you to avoid debt, they're the same people that never built much wealth now a reliance on 22% APR, credit card debt just To pay basic living expenses, because it's the only way that you could do it, merely making the minimum monthly payment that right there is the road to ruin. Why? Well, because the interest rate is high, because you have to pay it back yourself, and because it's unsecured, meaning that there's no collateral, and at the same time, the people quietly getting rich, what are they doing? They're using debt every single day. So debt is not the enemy, it's just the tool, and like any tool, it can build a house, or it can smash your thumb if you miss the nail. Well today we're going to separate the two, because if you understand this one concept, then you stop playing defense financially and start going on offense. In fact, I'll go further. Debt isn't the opposite of the American Dream used correctly. Debt is the American dream. Now, my turning point was really fueled when I made my first ever home, that $295,000 blue four Plex Building Two decades ago, with just my three and a half percent down payment. That meant that 96 and a half percent was borrowed. That's debt, and that fueled everything for me, and got the ball rolling on using that seminal four Plex to leverage even more debt and more property with 1031 exchanges and cash out refinances debt made that American dream free. Me because I could not have afforded $295,000 all cash back then. Now, a guest that we had on the show last year and the owner of a commercial lending company, Hannah Hannan, she recently talked about the virtues of debt. I met Hannah because we were both faculty members on last year's real estate guys Investor Summit at sea cruise. Well, Hannah went on a different cruise and saw in Jamaica that there were all these vacant and uncompleted houses just sort of weirdly stuck at different stages of construction. She asked the tour guide, why are these houses all abandoned? And and the tour guide answered, we don't have loans here in Jamaica. People have to work make money and then start the build, and then the build pauses while they make more money, and then they have to construct the next phase of the build as they go and go back to making more money like that. I mean, sheesh, that's awful. Can you imagine if you had to build a home or a rental property for yourself that way? Well, back here in the US, access to debt is what allows people to build wealth faster, especially in real estate, you can use other people's money control large assets, pay less in taxes and compound off a much smaller amount of capital. That's the difference. Debt availability is really good in the US compared to other nations, and that's the emphasis on the American part of today's episode. Debt is the American dream. Now, when it comes to the big misunderstanding, most people think that debt is really just one thing. They just lump it all like it's all bad, credit cards, car loans, student loans, mortgages. A lot of people, they really do. They just still throw it all into one mental bucket that's sort of labeled da, avoid that at all costs. I'm telling you, no way you cannot do that. I mean, this is like saying food is bad because candy exists. No, there's junk food and there's fuel. It's the same with debt. Consumer debt is a wealth killer. Investment debt is a wealth creator, and if you don't know the difference well, you end up avoiding the very thing that could move your life forward. Here's another way to think about it, debt doesn't make you poor. Using debt poorly makes you poor.

Keith Weinhold 7:36

In real estate, inflation is quietly paying your mortgage, even if you never made a principal payment at all. When you really understand this, it almost sounds too good to be true. Most people think inflation is just rising prices, and it is that, but they miss the other side of the equation. Inflation also shrinks debt, something I've been talking about for more than 10 years here. If you have a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, you're paying back that loan with future dollars that are worth less, and meanwhile, rents tend to rise, wages tend to rise, and asset values tend to rise, but your mortgage, it stays fixed. Inflation can't touch it, and that means that over time, your payment gets easier and easier to make. Oh, and then if you've got a tenant in place as well, oh, they're the one sending in the check for everything. And inflation is not just happening to you. It's now working for you. If you've got, say, a $500,000 mortgage loan, and inflation is 3% well, then inflation enriched you by $15,000 every single year. That's $1,250 a month just on this 500k mortgage loan. And if you've got an investment property rented out. You've even got the tenant paying down, oh, maybe $400 in monthly principal for you on the property, plus this $1,250 in inflation profiting, plus $100 of cash flow. This is $1,750 in monthly benefit before we've even added in your tax benefits and the appreciation potential. What made this all happen debt is what made it all a reality for you. When we talk about why the middle class fears debt, yeah, there is a mindset divide here. On one side, it simply says, get out of debt, stay out of debt and avoid risk. On the other we ask, How can I use that to acquire assets? So it's really like the first group is focused on safety and the second group is focused on growth, and after a while you have to ask bigger X. Potential questions like, do you want to live a life of safety, or do you want to live a life of growth? Now, I'm not knocking discipline, but there is a hidden cost to avoiding debt entirely. It's called opportunity cost. When you pay all cash, oh, well, then you lose leverage, you lose scalability, you lose tax advantages, and you often lose time. Hey, just like I would have by postponing my first four Plex purchase for, say, five plus years until I could have saved up all that money by myself. That's why playing it safe is often the riskiest move, because while you're sitting on the sidelines, inflation and rising prices are still in the game, and you've taken yourself out of the game. When we talk about the American dream, look, America was built on debt leverage.

Keith Weinhold 11:01

Zoom out for a second. This isn't just about you and me. America itself was built on debt. Railroads were financed with borrowed money that helped Cornelius Vanderbilt build his railroad empire in the 1800s in the 1900s highways were funded through government debt. Today, our entire suburbs are built on mortgages. Leverage didn't break the system. It built the system. So it's kind of ironic that today people are told the safest move is to avoid the very mechanism that built this modern economy that you and I are living inside every day. Debt is how things get done. Now, practically, yes, debt can absolutely wreck you if it's used poorly. So we think about some simple guardrails then favor fixed rate debt over variable match long term debt with long term assets, and you want to chiefly borrow for cash flowing or appreciating assets, and also stress test your deals assume that things won't go perfectly. So this certainly is not about being reckless. It's about being intentional. Debt should serve you, not the other way around. And now notice how I said to chiefly use debt for cash flowing or appreciating assets. I didn't say solely because you'll remember how last year, I talked to you about how I bought a new car for myself and financed as much as I was allowed, almost 100% debt. I had to make, like, a two or 3k down payment on the car because it was a special order. And once they start, you know, building it and customizing it for me, well, then they're at risk if they don't have a deposit, all right? Well, I found a way to make this car debt pretty good debt. Oh, and you might be thinking, oh, yeah, of course. Well, if you use it for business, you probably get some deductions that way. Oh, no, no. Business use totally a personal car, almost leveraged to the hilt, but it's not bad debt, and I'll tell you why. By the way, this isn't some high end exotic car. It's a BMW x3 SUV. It was like 53 or 55k and now how could I possibly call this good debt? Nope, I'm not running it out to other people or anything like that, because here, unlike income property, where a tenant pays it down, I do have to make these car payments myself. Well, in a word, the reason I did it this way is for the arbitrage. I got a fixed 3.99% interest rate for five years. Call it 4% Oh, I am almost certainly going to beat that by investing those dollars in real estate. So the 55k almost that I did not have to allocate to a car. Oh, well, that amount is enough for a down payment and closing costs on a cash flowing rental. That's probably going to pay me five ways with a total ROI that I expect to be multiples above the 4% interest rate, but the car's value depreciates. What about that debt on a depreciating asset? A car depreciates at the same rate whether it's bought all cash or all debt. It doesn't matter. Here is the better question, why tie up that much in a depreciating asset? 55k if I had paid all cash which I could have, I would have foregone returns and paid opportunity cost. Now, arbitraging car debt this way. That's not great debt. I don't put it in that category like real estate that pays for itself is and that is mostly because no tenant services. My personal car debt. For me, this car debt is just good debt, not great debt. Now how about some more guardrails? How can you keep yourself from going nuts and just trying to arbitrage everything. How would you know if you've gone too far? I mean, any person that's savvy with personal finance has to ask themselves a question, and that is always, what is the risk associated with this investment, or what is the risk associated with this debt, right? Because I already talked about the upsides of car debt this way. Well, the first risk is that I don't successfully arbitrage it. Rather than having the 55k sunk into the car, I have it invested elsewhere than say, it doesn't achieve a greater than 4% return. Well, the risk of that happening is small, maybe about a 10% chance. What's another big risk of leveraging car debt this way? Well, it's if you cannot make the monthly payment, which for me is about $1,050 a month, 1050 that's a comfortable payment. For me, if you can't make the payment that's called, you got yourself into an over leveraged condition. But for me, these risks are manageable. And this is applied thinking. This is clear eyed thinking, rational decision making, a level headed approach, a long term approach. It's common sense investing. Have a strategy and then invest your plan, not your emotions. Look paying off debt. That's often an emotional response, like when the debt is at a low interest rate and yes, understanding that debt is the American dream. Okay, this is still a pretty unconventional understanding, for sure, but it is pragmatism over emotions. When emotions go up, intelligence goes down. You can see that in a lot of places in your life. I can too. I think that a lot of the emotion happened to us when we were really young, perhaps age 12. And maybe you're saying, Oh, well, grandpa, he would not have arranged his finances this way. Grandpa wouldn't have leveraged all this real estate debt, and he sure wouldn't have thought that arbitraging car debt is savvy, but your grandpa was born before 1971 back when the dollar was still gold, backed if you're older now, your grandpa might have even been affected by living through the 1930s Great Depression. Our world does not work that way. Today, the dollar is no longer tethered to gold. It's just borrowed and lent into existence, and another Great Depression that's actually really unlikely. In the 1930s President Herbert Hoover refused to provide government support to prop up the economy, and sheesh today, any crisis is like immediately propped up by us printing a ton of dollars and then giving them out, just like covid stimulus checks and mortgage loan forbearance and all of that debt, debt, debt. Now I don't think that all of that is good, but you got to acknowledge that that's the world we live in today. If you're debt averse, because grandpa always said to stay out of debt, well then you know what you can take solace. Take comfort in the fact that today, ultimately, grandpa would have understood that the world changed, and he would want what is best for you.

Keith Weinhold 19:03

I'm get rich education. Host Keith Weinhold, this week, we're talking about why debt is the American dream on episode 600 with guidance that's practical, contrarian investor first and non emotional. Contrarian does not mean reckless. And by the way, just because something is mainstream, well, that doesn't necessarily make it bad, but in this case with debt, it often does. Here we're kind of back onto the old Mark Twain quote. Go out on a limb, that's where the fruit is. This is independent thinking for real world investors. It's where theory meets what actually works, and I'll discuss some specific actionable guidance for you before we're done today. But this is largely about ignoring the masses and following a clear incentive path. And what do the masses do? Now they kind of all gel together and get pumped up when they follow these debt free call in radio shows where the host advises the caller to always desperately retire debt at all costs. They'll even tell you work a second and a third job. You got to postpone vacations. They'll tell you to defer your life and go into lifestyle debt. Then in order to desperately stay out of financial debt, we're never going to get that time back. So just chill, take it easy with a lot of debt types inflation and sometimes tenants both passively pay it back for you. I mean, on these debt free call in radio shows, almost every time they give guidance, I kind of chuckle when I listen to this stuff. I sort of quietly ask myself, how would that path ever build wealth like when people are advised to retire 3% mortgage debt? Why dreadful sounding guidance like this happens is because it keeps irresponsible people from going over a cliff. That's all it serves to do. I mean, you're here listening to me because you're good with money, or you desire to be good with money and not give all your money away to creditors used intelligently. Debt isn't reckless. It's a tool, and it's one that lets you scale without trading every hour of your life for dollars. It seems to me that some of the groups of people that need to hear the debt is the American Dream message. They tend to be in a few groups. I need to be careful here, but I'm talking about groups like people with less financial education, engineers and women. It doesn't mean that people with less financial education are any less intelligent. And then when it comes to the engineering profession, you know that type of person tends to be unusually conservative, and I've worked for engineering firms in the past, so I wouldn't know this is somewhat of a paradox. Since engineers are the calculating types, you would think that they would have leverage and arbitrage figured out, and then women are a group that they tend to be more debt averse than most, and this is not a knock on women at all. In fact, women generally do a lot of things better than men do. I mean, I could go on and on there, like emotional intelligence and social awareness and relationship building and even multitasking and sticking to a plan, but I know couples where the husband does understand that it does not make a lick of financial sense to pay off the home, but he did it because the wife wants it so badly she deems that as security. But yeah, there was a time in my life where I thought that being millions of dollars in debt. Oh, that just sounded awful, like I thought that after graduating from college, but Oh, position well, with leverage in real estate, after a long time, you might get yourself where you're increasing your debt half a million bucks every year, but right alongside it, you're increasing your asset value 1 million bucks every year. Well, right there, since net worth is assets minus debt, you're increasing your net worth by a half million bucks a year because you have a big amount to leverage, because you've been a real estate investor for a long time. For example, debt made that American dream possible. But, yeah, the needling engineer type that's conventional and is like still the guy faithfully contributing to their 401 k which is locked up until their age, 59 and a half and keeps paying down debt. You know, they're the ones showing up to their engineering job in a pair of Dockers pants. I'm telling you, people that wear Dockers are not good debtors. I mean, do they still make stupid Dockers? I've got to look that up. Do those pants have pleats at the front or not? I don't even know.

Speaker 2 24:16

Levi's 100% cotton Dockers. If you're not wearing Dockers, you're just wearing pants.

Keith Weinhold 24:21

Oh jeez. And yeah, they still do make Dockers. I mean, the stereotypical needling engineer that dutifully contributes to a 401, K, he's got to have a complete dresser drawer full of stupid Dockers, no doubt.

Keith Weinhold 24:37

Hey, I can make a little fun of them, because I spent a lot of time in that world. I think it makes sense to contribute to a 401 K, by the way, but only up to the employer match amount. That way it's tax advantaged, and you're using other people's money one to one, but above that, oh, every dollar you lock inside a 401 k is $1 that can No. Longer leverage other people's money. That means no debt, no leverage, and a steep opportunity cost. Now to get a holistic picture here, we need to think through what are some reasons to pay down debt, or to pay off debt and completely retire it? Because there are some good reasons for doing that. I talked about credit cards earlier, student loan debt is also not good debt, because you must pay that debt, not somebody else, like a tenant, and now their interest rates are not as high as credit cards, but there's also no collateral with student loans. Maybe you could arbitrage it, like I did with my car, but student loan debt can't be discharged in bankruptcy. Like most other debt types, can you also want to pay off debt when an interest rate is working against you and not for you. Also, if you want to buy more property, but you need to lower your DTI in order to qualify with your mortgage loan underwriter that is lower your debt to income ratio before you take out another mortgage. Oh, well, that would be a reason, for example, to pay off a car loan. Another reason to pay off debt is if you're approaching retirement and you expect a decrease in your income, then you would want to revisit that here at GRE you might be structuring things to increase your income once you retire. That's its own discussion. They are some of the reasons to pay off debt. It makes sense sometimes, and with all those reasons, we've kept emotions out of it. But otherwise, yeah, bring on the good debt. Debt and loan are my two favorite four letter words the wealthiest people have the most debt. I've discussed that reality before on previous episodes, and I gave a lot of examples, like with Mark Zuckerberg and also with Jay Z and Beyonce, so I won't go into all that again. So therefore, let me discuss how, not only do the wealthiest people have the most debt, I mean, for example, I'm wealthier than I've ever been, and I simultaneously have the most debt that I've ever had. Not surprisingly, the wealthiest world nations have the most debt too. Let's look at it from the perspective of household debt as a percent of GDP. There are about 200 world nations, and sure enough, the US ranks pretty high 13th in this measure of household debt, the top 10 nations, counting them down from 10 to one is and look, they're all wealthy nations that have the most debt, Sweden, Denmark, Hong Kong, Norway, South Korea. Up to fifth is New Zealand. And then you've got the Netherlands at fourth, and then Canada, Australia, and number one is the nation that you probably think of as the most wealthy and stable in the entire world. It is Switzerland. They are number one in household debt per GDP, and then the poorest of the 200 world nations have the least debt and the highest interest rates and the least stable currencies. But see, the wealthy nations can borrow the most. These countries can borrow trillions because investors trust them. Their economies are productive and they can service the payments just like you see, say that I know you've got $5 million in debt. Just say that's true. All right. Well, now that's an interesting thing that I know about you, and now I can automatically deduce something else about you. I know that you must be pretty credit worthy for anyone to have even extended you that much credit. So a high debt level is a mark of creditworthiness. The richest people have the most debt and the richest nations have the most debt too. Debt is a contract with time. Here's the deeper idea, debt lets you pull future resources into today. It's financial time travel. But there is a catch. You need to deploy that capital into something that grows faster than the cost of borrowing. If you do that, you win. If you don't, then you just brought future problems into the present debt is time travel, and most people just waste the trip. That's why debt has a bad name. Debt Free surely is not the goal. But you know, even hitting a certain net worth or income mark is not an end goal. Their financial goal. But not the end. The end goal is genuinely living the best version of you. And in fact, let's listen to this together for a minute or two from the parallel truth. Are you really living? It's a little oversimplified, but this is quite a bit more substantive than civil engineers wearing Levi's 100% cotton Dockers. Don't be startled by the sound effects.

Speaker 3 30:23

If you really think working 50 years at a job you hate just to get a few years of so called Freedom makes sense, then I'm sorry to say, you have been brainwashed. This is not living. It's a trap. From the moment you're born, the system starts programming you. School doesn't teach you to think. It teaches you to obey, to sit still, follow orders and wait for permission. Then comes work, where your best years, your energy, your creativity, all get drained away to build someone else's dream. And they call that success. Retirement is the prize they dangle in front of you. Work hard now, they say, so one day you can finally rest. But by the time that day comes, your body's worn out, your fire's gone, and all those dreams you once had, they faded into routine. You traded your time for money and then your health to earn it back. And here's the cruel truth, that's not an accident. It's designed that way, a system built to keep you tired, broke and too distracted to notice what's really happening. They want you so busy surviving that you forget to actually live the scam is simple. They steal your youth when it's full of energy, passion and possibility, and then hand you back your freedom when you're too weak to use it. And the worst part, most people defend the very system that's enslaving them. They call it normal life. They laugh at anyone who questions it, because it's easier to believe the lie than to face the truth. But nothing about this is normal. It's just comfortable enough to stop you from revolting. They give you weekends, holidays and Netflix tiny doses of relief so you don't question the cage you live in. You were born to create, to explore, to build your own path, not to clock in and out until the day you die. The world doesn't need more workers. It needs more thinkers, more dreamers, more people brave enough to walk away from the illusion. So ask yourself, are you really living or just slowly dying inside a system that calls itself freedom?

Speaker 4 31:59

Yeah. Are you truly living or just existing with GRE plan, you can often retire in five to 10 years. So no debt isn't something to fear. It's something to understand. Because the difference between being stuck financially and moving forward faster than you thought possible, it often comes down to one thing, whether you avoid debt or you learn to use it, the American dream is not about being debt free. It's more about owning assets, leveraging wisely, and then letting time tenants and inflation do some of the heavy lifting for you, all of your life. Debt is the American dream, and I've got more on this for you today, coming up here on the show in future, GRE episodes, Rich Dad, Poor Dad. Author Robert Kiyosaki publicly states that he has $1.4 billion in debt, billion with a B, not because he's irresponsible, because he understands leverage and debt often entails a tax advantage with it too. Later this spring, Robert Kiyosaki returns to the show with me here. He's been one of our more recurrent guests over time. Next week, Redfin chief economist, Darrell fairweather, PhD, sits down with me here. Also a lot of other prominent guests lined up, like real estate influencer thatch Wynn will be here with me and lots of other great episodes coming up, including a lot of content that you wouldn't expect to hear that can make a real difference in your life. Be sure to follow or subscribe to the show and also tell a friend about the show today could very well be one of these paradigm shifting episodes that you want to share on social media. More straight ahead you're listening to debt is the American Dream On get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 33:50

Let me throw out a simple idea, sometimes doing nothing with your money is actually a decision. Leaving it parked might feel safe, but over time, purchasing power changes. So the conversation isn't about chasing returns. It's about intentionally placing money somewhere. Freedom, family investments works in real estate people use every day housing, senior communities, essential properties, things tied to living and not trends, their freedom notes. Offering is built for accredited investors looking for structured income backed by real assets, not speculation. I am an investor with them myself. The Freedom team makes themselves available to walk through their approach, structure and operating philosophy, so you can ask questions and determine alignment before moving forward, while past performance doesn't guarantee future results, their historical operating philosophy has yielded 100% investor payouts backed by over 20 years of experience. If you want clarity before making any moves, book a clarity call. At freedom familyinvestments.com or text family to 66 866, text the word family to 66 866.

Keith Weinhold 35:12

Flock homes helps you retire from real estate and landlording, whether it's one problem property or your whole portfolio through a 721 exchange, deferring your capital gains tax and depreciation recapture. It's a strategy long used by the ultra wealthy. Now Mom and Pop landlords can 721 the residential real estate request your initial valuation, see if your properties [email protected] slash, slash GRE, that's F, l, O, C, K, homes.com/gre

Tom Wheelwright 35:50

This is Rich Dad Advisor Tom wheelwright. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 36:02

You welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold its debt is the American dream on episode 600 now, just before taking the mic, about 30 minutes ago, I ate some raspberries. I looked at the package to see where they were grown Mexico. Someone in Mexico supplied them. There was a supply chain. Those raspberries were planted in rows with trellising grown, and then they need to be hand picked. They're highly perishable, and they need to be shipped a long way fast, therefore, I just simply had the exorbitant privilege of buying those raspberries from a lit refrigerated store shelf with my dollars. Well, effectively, a bank lent me those dollars. Most of my debt is real estate debt, where time, tenants and inflation service my debt for me. I mean, what an amazing world. I'm just here to control those flows, those flows of money between Mexican raspberry growers, for my property managers that manage my tenants and for the banks that provide the loan. I mean, gosh, debt really is the American dream. It made raspberries appear. This is a contrarian way of thinking, but it's calculated. It's unconventional, but it's first principles thinking, rather than emotions from grandpa. You know something I've said it before that. Hey, I'm proud that throughout my life I have never ridden the government dole. Once. Never have I done that. I've never accepted a subsidy, no covid stimulus checks. I've never accepted an unemployment check in my life, even though I could have been eligible one time. I'm proud of that, because otherwise taxpayers would have had to work for me and pay for me. But in a way, since so many of my mortgage loans are subsidized, I am riding the government dole to get 30 year mortgage money at a 7% interest rate, that's also tax deductible, so therefore maybe I'm paying 5% I mean, that's a really good deal, and the government backing makes banks want to provide lucrative loans to us, just like the FHA program that I personally began with on a fourplex, and Just like these first 10 Fannie, Mae, Freddie Mac backed investor loans that you can get for one to four unit properties. So although it's indirect, it's really like a government handout that we're getting. And what can we do when we can do our part in giving back by doing good in the world and providing good housing, not being slumlords. That's the path that we're on here and the future, it's always going to feel uncertain. Always, I'm encouraging you. You've got to plant the tree, you've got to take the leap. You've got to choose to believe that there is something worth building toward optimism is not about ignoring what's broken in the world. It's about deciding anyway to keep on going, and you're probably doing a lot right, working hard, earning, well, a little saving, but more investing. There's a problem that very few people talk about, labor income is taxed heavily, asset income is treated better, and then 401, K income, well, that doesn't even start arriving until you're about 60 or 70. And really, this is why a lot of high performing. Professionals eventually hit a wall. They make more money, but they don't feel much freer. The people who break out usually do one thing differently. They stop relying on one income source, and they start building income producing assets, and that's where I come in, you already know how to do things like budget and save. We all learned that quite a long time ago, and we've all heard the usual advice about maxing out your 41k waiting for years and just sort of hoping, and that might build a nest egg like that usually does turn into something, and it's better than nothing. It usually won't build outsized returns or freedom, though, and surely not while you're young enough to fully enjoy it. So get rich education is about a different path, building durable wealth through income, property, financial education and smarter leverage, certainly not day trading, certainly not get rich quick, just a proven framework for escaping overdependence on a paycheck, a generationally proven vehicle here and here you get the mindset and tactics to make generationally proven real estate a life changing investment because most people are Climbing the wrong mountain. A lot of smart professionals spend 30 years trying to save their way to freedom, but wealth usually grows faster when you own assets that produce income appreciate over time, offer tax advantages and can be financed with long term debt. That's how you get a lot of them. That is the difference between working hard and building leverage. So you can't out earn a broken wealth strategy.

Keith Weinhold 41:47

Most people earn income, but few people own income. You own the source of the income when you have rental property. A lot of smart professionals really learn that too late, Your salary alone doesn't even have the ability to make you wealthy, since wealth is freedom. So we use an abundance mentality to invest in assets that are scarce. Most people use a scarcity mentality, leading with loss aversion, to invest in something that's abundant and plentiful. So there is always opportunity out there in a market as big and as broad as the US residential real estate market. Where is that opportunity today? Well, I'll tell you that list prices rose 2% year over year to a median of 423k that's in the four week period that just ended according to Redfin. But notice I said that was the list price buyers haggled them down to about 389k that's really significant. It's really proof that sellers are willing to bend in today's markets. So therefore in most markets, I'm encouraging you to make an offer that's below the list price, as we know, available for sale property that is still scarce in a lot of the Northeast and Midwest, and supply is abundant in Texas and Florida. But here's the thing, although Florida inventory is higher now than it was pre pandemic over that six or seven year stretch, here's the new trend, and it's worthwhile to identify inflection points like this on a year over year basis. So looking at only the past one year, Florida inventory is now down 4% it's no longer going up. So it's possible that we've reached the peak of this new Florida supply. We could have hit the turning point now, and yet, builders are still buying down your mortgage rate to about 4% giving you that long term fixed rate on new builds. So I'm telling you, that's where the opportunity is now. As far as the rent side, nationally, I don't see rents going up significantly anytime soon, and that's for most everything, single family rentals all the way up to huge apartment buildings. Rent increases in the single family to fourplex space, they showed some real promise last spring, a year ago, but as we got into summer, they didn't really materialize. Now, although you get rent increases historically, it's never wise to buy and just assume that that is automatic. But I want to underscore the fact that you really should not count on a rent increase over the next year. So that's new builds.

Keith Weinhold 44:53

The other area ripe for opportunity. Here is burrs, buy, renovate, rent. Finance and repeat properties and among GRE listeners, burrs have been our most popular investment over the past two years. Yeah, Memphis, Little Rock, Birmingham and Kansas City, they are our hottest and most reliable burr markets, and we've really improved our burr operations since first helping you with those found the secret sauce, as far as helping you get the right provider that doesn't leave you hanging on the renovation, burrs are also good for you if you have fewer investment resources than what new build properties require. GRE coaching calls and our coaching program are completely free to help you with this now. Of course, our investment coaches listen to all the GRE episodes like you. They're aligned, and we have family guys that work here, like our investment coach Naresh. He has a wife and kids, and he's just the type of person that you want to see succeed in life and that you would enjoy working with over time. And we are all investors ourselves here, every one of us, so it doesn't hurt to set up a 30 minute consultation call to see if our GRE coaching program is right for you, some good, abundantly minded council for free. Our investment coaches have access to the best deals in real time. That alone is worth a connection. We're in constant communication with the top national providers in the best markets. So there might be an incentive today, like, say, a builder rate by down to 4% that didn't exist just two days ago or yesterday. So this is why investors are succeeding. They're also succeeding thanks to our recent Florida online live event. Connect with us to watch the replay and get in on these deals yourself. In fact, we have never seen so many incentives and price reductions in GRE history as we are right now. And see, here's the thing, when it comes to you making an offer below the list price, because our coaches work with other GRE listeners, they're going to know how low that seller is really going to go for you on that price. So that negotiation is some key information that you can learn. We have access to more than 200 deals nationwide, so contact our real estate investment coaches to get access and these burr properties can give you a super high ROI, because sometimes you can end up with as little as 10k or 20k of equity invested in an income producing single family rental. That's probably going to be 20k or more. And then with some of these developers that overbuilt in places like Florida, make that offer use good debt and take advantage of that interest rate in the fours. Buy low. And the reason that these new build deals provide positive income is because you buy at a lower purchase price overall, and you get a fixed rate in the fours, and you get a low property insurance rate, since they are new build properties, you don't need urgency right now so much as you need clarity, because there are opportunities, real ones, whether it's burrs in the Midwest or builder incentives in places like Florida, where you can Get those 4% rates. But the challenge isn't finding opportunity, it's knowing which one is right for you, and that's exactly what we help you do. And since our coaches are active investors themselves, they follow the same markets and the same providers and the same strategies that we talk about here on the show. So instead of guessing or going back and forth in emails, just get clear book, a quick call. It's free, it's 30 minutes, and it could save you months or years of going in the wrong direction. You can do [email protected] that's greinvestmentcoach.com the best thing you can do next is get aligned with the right opportunity. I'll chat with you in a week. I'm Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 3 49:35

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively the.

Speaker 4 50:03

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com

Keith explores how major geopolitical conflicts tend to reshape—not destroy—real estate markets, redirecting demand away from active war zones and toward safer, more stable regions. He explains how inflation, interest rates, and supply disruptions interact with property values over time, and why certain locations and asset types are more resilient than others.

Investor and CEO Dani‑Lynn Robison, joins the conversation, to talk about building long-term wealth through "needs-based" real estate and the idea of a personal "wealth window" — the finite period when combining active income with compounding can have the biggest impact.

They discuss the shift many investors make from being hands-on operators to more passive capital allocators, and why calm, long-term strategies focused on essential housing and services can help investors navigate uncertainty and technological change without panic.

Resources:

"Ready to see how these strategies could fit your own wealth plan? Book a free 20‑minute Capital Architecture Call with Dani‑Lynn's team—just text WINDOW to 66866 to get started.

Episode Page:

GetRichEducation.com/599

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: [email protected]

Invest with Freedom Family Investments.

For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text FAMILY to 66866

Unlock truly passive real estate income—visit flockhomes.com/GRE today to see if your properties qualify for a 721 exchange with Flock Homes.

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Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, wars are extremely expensive. The one to $2 billion spent on the Iran war every day is stoking inflationary pressure. How do wars affect real estate and will values appreciate 10% or more this year? You'll get clear answers, then I'll speak with a woman that I entrust with my own funds today on Get Rich Education.

Corey Coates 0:34

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Keith Weinhold 1:17

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com, that's Ridge lendinggroup.com.

Speaker 1 1:51

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 2:07

Welcome to GRE from Canterbury, England to Sunbury, Pennsylvania and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education. How does war affect real estate? The war with Iran that began one month ago has really brought this to light. Now, a lot of armchair analysts and even some people with experience, they succumb to folly by having an emotionally driven hunch, as we like to say here at GRE take history over hunches. First look at what's actually happened historically, and at least let that inform the hunch Oh, and now you've brought pragmatism to the question of what happens to real estate in wartime. Now the latest war in the Middle East happened at a time where the existing picture is that US residential real estate prices are stable. Values are not rising or falling very much, and it's been rather slow overall and historically low transaction volume, fewer sellers and fewer buyers, and mortgage rates are near historic norms. I'll get back to us real estate shortly. But as you might imagine, real estate values that are actually in direct war zones, they get pummeled. So we're talking about many parts of the Middle East at this time in history, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, the UAE. In fact, values in the war zones collapse fast when there's physical danger. Properties can be damaged or totally leveled. Insurance becomes unavailable or meaningless, buyers disappear, liquidity dries up. The result is that prices fall hard, sometimes to near zero in active conflict zones. And that completely makes sense. I mean, would you want to make an offer to buy a property in an active war zone, I wouldn't now in safe regions that are adjacent to the war zone. Oh, the opposite has happened historically. Values surge because you've got refugees and migrants that flood into those nearby safer cities. Rental demand spikes immediately, and vacancy collapses. So in these adjacent safe areas, rents jump first, and then prices follow. In fact, when Russia invaded Ukraine back in 2022 this is exactly what happened across Eastern Europe. Cities like Warsaw Poland saw rent Spike. Almost overnight. All right, historically, what has war done to interest rates and inflation, like I alluded to last week, I think you already know that they both rise during wartime, and they sure are Now historically, war triggers energy shocks like oil and gas, and during this war, the energy shocks are greater than usual due to the Middle East being oil rich, war trigger supply chain disruptions and government spending surges. It's been well documented that the US has been spending one to $2 billion every single day on the war with Iran, and this is what can lead to that higher inflation and higher interest rates. And here's the tension for real estate, higher mortgage rates often put downward pressure on real estate prices, but yet inflation puts upward pressure on housing and all types of real assets. So the result there is this short term tug of war longer term, the real estate wins in inflation because it's a hard asset with debt attached. But back to the direct war zones, construction slows and supply tightens, and that's because war disrupts the very availability of labor and materials like steel and fuel and shipping developer confidence goes down the tubes too, and the result is that fewer homes get built, and then existing inventory becomes more valuable after the war, and this is The underappreciated force. Less supply later means higher prices later. Now let's talk outside the war zone. And before I do you know, gosh, it's amazing, whenever the US is involved in a war, it's almost never on American soil that's us hegemony and geography at work. There stuff's always getting blown up on the other side of the world. Rarely where I live in America, but here at home, military and government hubs can boom during war because the war spending is not spread out evenly. Defense contractors expand military bases, scale up logistics hubs get busier with that stuff. In mind, you can think then about which us locations can really boom with economic activity during wartime, as sad as it is for the active combatants and casualties, so the result is for the US to have localized housing boom, something that's often overlooked, but it's very real. And the big takeaway, and this is what most people miss, is that war does not crash real estate. It reroutes demand in destruction zones, there's collapse in safe, stable areas, like certain us regions, there's often a surge and on a national level in the US now, the result is mixed and resilient. And over time, inflation plus constrained supply plus population shifts tend to push values higher in the surviving markets. That is history over hunches. So then a better question than, how do wars affect real estate is instead, where does demand go next? That's a great question. Now, when you think about US military and defense corridors that benefit that's places like Tampa, Huntsville, Alabama, Norfolk, Virginia, and say, San Diego, because historically, defense budgets expand. Contractors hire aggressively and military personnel increases if higher mortgage rates persist and it keeps housing affordability strained, the winners tend to be lower cost resilient markets, places like Cleveland, Memphis and Kansas City. When the war with Iran began, 30 year mortgage rates were 5.98% and then they quickly shot up to about six and a half. They are still lower today than they were a year ago, even during geopolitical chaos, domestic migration really doesn't stop. People will keep piling into boring Sunbelt suburbs in Florida, Texas and Arizona. Now, if war causes domestic travel to drop in the US, and that's an if what happens historically is that short term rentals and hospitality driven real estate can get hurt. Think places like Las Vegas and Orlando. Now, let me have a word with you on interest rates. For a couple years now, people have talked with certainty about how mortgage rates and interest rates have all turned. Types are gonna go down like they've just gotta go down like it's a foregone conclusion or something. And as you know, all this time, I have been resolute in conveying the fact that you cannot predict interest rates with any certainty, and trying to spend time doing so is a fantastic way to waste your time, and sure enough, with a new war, rates rose, they didn't fall. I will forecast home prices, but no one can predict rates. Today, the Fed talks about increasing the rate more than cutting the rate. Now, inflation has been in this small range between two and a half and 3% for almost the year now, inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target. Do you realize this every single month for more than five years now, floating high for more than 60 months in a row before I discuss what Ward does to the rate of inflation.

Keith Weinhold 11:06

let me share something kind of humorous with you. My height of five feet, 11 inches. This is the most honest height that a man can be. Here. I am 511 I weigh 174 every other man of my height rounds up and says they're six feet tall. I'm telling you, heightflation among men is every bit as rampant as price inflation among consumers, but you don't have any choice in the price inflation, so History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. Back in the 1970s America experienced what some people call this famous double hump inflation, because in 1974 It peaked at over 12% and then just about five years later, you had another peak of almost 15% inflation and that ran into the beginning of 1980 back in the 70s, those inflation homes were caused by an oil embargo, Nixon, severing the dollar from gold and the Iranian Revolution. Yes, Iran back then too. All right, well, here in more modern times, could we experience a double hump again? Because we had the covid inflation wave that peaked in 2022 and next, could we have another inflation wave five or six years later, just like the 70s? Did you probably already know the story back then, that's when inflation only got crushed. How did we deal with it? Then when Fed Chair Paul Volcker ruthlessly jacked the Fed funds rate to near 20% and that made mortgage rates blast past 18% in 1981 yeah, that all makes today's mortgage rates sound rather adorable, doesn't it? The war with Iran, it is already the biggest oil supply disruption in history, more than double the previous record in the 1950s This is not a small deal. There's a real potential for inflation to spike higher. The oil supply shocks things, because oil is the master ingredient of the global economy. Even if the war winds down, it takes time for things to get back online, but really, the way to think of oil is the master ingredient, that's the way to think of it, the master ingredient. I mean, it's embedded in nearly everything except your morning coffee, plastics, chemicals, fertilizers, transportation. So like an economic octopus, oils. Tentacles extend everywhere. For example, higher fertilizer costs now mean higher food prices later and yep, eventually even your morning coffee, although the US does not rely directly on the Strait of Hormuz for oil, those prices are set on the global market. I myself sailed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2020 and it didn't feel so perilous to me then I was on a cruise ship. But in wartime, you don't want to be on an oil tanker. Why not? Well, it's just the slowest moving vehicle on Earth, packed with the most flammable liquid on earth through the most active war zone on Earth. About a week later, I also flew over the heart of Iran, and it is quite an inhospitable looking place, arid with tall mountains. In fact, they have the highest mountain in the Middle East there. It's called Mount damavanda, about 18,400 feet In Iran

Keith Weinhold 15:01

Dubai, real estate is not going to be the same for a long time, maybe ever. It's said. It's been bombed pretty often this year. So all of this is not ephemeral, what the US calls operation epic fury. It could elevate inflation for years. Wars are expensive, missiles, aircraft carriers, troop deployments, all the logistics, we are not going to pay for all of that with savings. Lol, let's all pause right now for the audience laughter. We don't have savings. We pay for it with debt, and the easiest way to pay for gigantic spending programs is to just quietly and sort of surreptitiously print more dollars. That's inflation. It dilutes every single dollar that you own now, every $20 bill in your wallet, every $100 in your savings account, inflation also debases every dollar of your real estate equity and every dollar in your stock portfolio. You'll remember that about six months ago, right here, I pointed out that though Trump says he wants low inflation, his behavior is highly inflationary. One thing to keep in mind is that, whether you like the President or not, what he does is when he sees the economy hurting, like with high gas prices or with the sinking stock market, what he does is he acts much like he did on tariff tweaks, but at some point it becomes too late to reverse course. You've got to ask, Have we cut rates too much? The Fed made rate cuts both last year and the year before, and meanwhile, a monetary puzzle keeps on brewing. The war could make things awkward, because we're supposed to have a new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, coming in a month and a half. Trump wants him to lower rates, but if inflation heats up, the obvious solution is to jack up rates. US stock investors are already feeling it, because the indices entered correction territory last week due to the war a correction means a drop of 10% or more from a recent peak, and us real estate investors are well insulated. Like I said, long term high inflation boosts values. Rents are even more stable than prices and rents, as long as you're outside of the direct war zone, have very little relation to the war. But systemic supply chain disruptions can be a real thing that fuels inflation, and here's why. See, manufacturers used to keep eight to 12 weeks of inventory in stock, but no longer. Today, we've got the efficient just in time supply chains and there is less stock on the shelf. The system is fragile. That's why this domino effect can create this long term economic headache of shortages and inflation. Have you seen any empty shelves yet, like we did during the pandemic, I have not but as we know, during inflationary times, investors flock to hard assets, it can help to have a little gold, I think, truly just a little. But in wartime, the most advantaged investment class is right where we already are. It is residential real estate held with debt. We are out here winning the GRE inflation triple crown because property values rise, debt becomes cheaper in real dollars and rents increase over time, all while inflation cannot touch your fixed mortgage payment amount. Now, during the last wave of high inflation, that was 2021 and 2022 us real estate prices were up 10 to 20% in each one of those years, not aggregate, but each one of those years. Do I think that this can happen again if we have another big wave of war generated inflation? No, I don't, I do not believe that national real estate prices can rise as much as 10% over the next 12 months, even amidst this low supply condition, and that is because of the ongoing affordability constraint. As for inflation, the cobasy Letter reported an inflation expectation of 5.2% over the next 12 months. There are other projections in the fours out there, but so much will change between now and then. So I think even they would acknowledge that that is a guess. Above all, wars are tragic. Let's acknowledge that the bottom line here is that wars are expensive too. They create inflation, and residential real estate held with debt is more than an inflation hedge. It's an inflation profiting machine. Straight ahead, we'll talk more about what's happening in the real estate market, in some different sectors. It's with a woman that I invest my own funds with for a stable real estate backed return. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Episode 599 of get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 20:39

Let me throw out a simple idea, sometimes doing nothing with your money is actually a decision. Leaving it parked might feel safe, but over time, purchasing power changes. So the conversation isn't about chasing returns, it's about intentionally placing money somewhere. Freedom, family investments works in real estate people use every day, housing, senior communities, essential properties, things tied to living and not trends. Their freedom notes offering is built for accredited investors looking for structured income backed by real assets, not speculation. I am an investor with them myself. The Freedom team makes themselves available to walk through their approach, structure and operating philosophy so you can ask questions and determine alignment before moving forward, while past performance doesn't guarantee future results, their historical operating philosophy has yielded 100% investor payouts backed by over 20 years of experience. If you want clarity before making any moves, book a clarity call at Freedom. Familyinvestments.com or text family to 66 866, text the word family to 66 866,

Keith Weinhold 22:00

flock homes helps you retire from real estate and landlording, whether it's one problem property or your whole portfolio, through a 721 exchange, deferring your capital gains tax and depreciation recapture, it's a strategy long used by the ultra wealthy. Now Mom and Pop landlords can 721, the residential real estate request your initial valuation, see if your properties [email protected] slash GRE, that's F, l, O, C, K, homes.com/g R, E.

Kristen Tate 22:39

This is author, Kristin Tate. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 22:55

Today we're talking about the wealth window. Why this moment in real estate is different in the opinion of our guest. I'm talking with a woman that I invest my own liquid dollars with because we've been friends for a decade. They have a track record of making investor payouts 100% of the time and on time. She's the founder and CEO of freedom family investments and owns eight real estate businesses. What they invest in, and therefore what my funds are backed by, is recession resilient, needs based real estate like multifamily, senior housing and self storage. I have a book on my bookshelf that she and her husband wrote, called Get Real and she has an upcoming book, calm money never panics, and a forthcoming Netflix documentary that's going to bring her message to a global audience, as her new partnership with Dr Phil to bring Straight Talk financial clarity to more people. Her philosophy is we measure success, not just by ROI, but by return on life. Rol, love that welcome back to the show. Danny. Lynn Robinson,

Dani-Lynn Robison 24:07

thank you so much, Keith. I'm so happy to be here.

Keith Weinhold 24:10

You always have so many interesting things happening. Tell us about the Dr Phil McGraw partnership and how your messages really move beyond investing circles. Absolutely.

Dani-Lynn Robison 24:20

What I love is when we get to visit again each year, as we talk on a podcast and just as friends. And it's really exciting right now because of the message that I think is perfect timing for the world that we live in right now and how fast things are changing, and Dr Phil came into the picture to really bring visibility to what we're doing and what we're talking about, because there's urgency just around AI and technology and what it's doing to the world and the uncertainty in the marketplace. Because I'm on conversations every single day with investors who just aren't sure what to do anymore. They're just like, I'm not sure exactly where to invest. I don't know what the future holds, and we can't rely. On history anymore, and so it's that instability that we're talking about that people probably feel more than they actually articulate very well in the world and in the economy and our finances. I mean, I don't know if you heard the stat, but chat GPT reached 100 million users in 60 days, like fastest adoption of technology and human history. So really, Dr Phil was, how do I get this message out to the world in a bigger way? And he brings such visibility to everything that he does. So does the documentary, so does the new book. So I'm putting it all together and doing lots of things, and I'm super excited.

Keith Weinhold 25:37

Dr Phil does more than just lecture teen girls that are brats to their parents, Dr Phil needs to invest as well. And you know, Danny, part of the stability that you offer and what you're into is just sort of this premise that we know as real estate investors, that not all real estate is created equal. For example, look at what happened to the office space post covid, and you really are formative with needs based real estate, like I said, and where capital's flowing now into that more resilient sector. Can you tell us more about that?

Dani-Lynn Robison 26:14

Yeah, absolutely. So let me touch on a few other things about AI and technology, and we're going to run into this analogy that I like to use about the river. So right now, with what everything that's going on, I'm calling it the final frontier, the final frontier of building wealth as we know it. And the reason I say it that way is I'm a big believer in not talking about fear based messaging, like I hate things that like the news that just brings fear into your face and makes you scared of everything that's going on, but I am a fan of being real, right? And everything that's going on right now, like as careers are changing over the next five to 10 years, we're just talking with high income earners about what's going on and why we're doing what we're doing, why we're positioning ourselves into what I call this river analogy. And it's because of another stat. There's a bunch of them, but I remember this one always top of mind because it happened five months ago, and I saw it in the news, and I was like, oh my goodness, it's already started, and that's just UPS cutting 48,000 jobs, right? And like I said, I've got articles that are just like, you can just see it, and everybody again feels and see it coming like the writing is on the wall. So when we were looking at what we want to do over the next five to 10 years, as we see what's happening, we're always evaluating that and figuring out where we want to position ourselves and why. And that's where this recession resilient real estate came in. Needs based real estate came in. The phrase not all real estate is created equal, came in, and it's what I'm shouting from the rooftops here, because I think no matter where you invest and who you invest with, I think this is a conversation worth having and questions worth asking. And so the visual I like to use is this, imagine standing on the bank of a river, right? So the water is moving in one direction, towards the path of least resistance. It doesn't fight geography. It flows exactly to where it's needed. So when we talk about real estate, we're talking about where is money flowing right now, in real estate. So we've always invested in the Midwest and southeast. That's where, you know population growth is. A lot of people are investing there. And then we chose three asset classes that I talk about a lot, and this is things that your listeners should write down. If you're driving, don't write down. Just remember it. So the first one is workforce housing. So we chose that one because one in nine Americans live in workforce housing today. Construction has dropped 40% since 2023 so there's a huge supply gap. The second asset class is senior housing, the silver tsunami. I'm sure you've heard of that. Yeah, 10,000 Americans every single day are turning 65 until 2030 and then, if you study all of the stats and you watch the timing of retirement, this ripples like into 2040 so it's 14 years for this asset class that's going to be really, really great for us to be investing in. We're getting very fast, yes, yes. And then the one I was surprised by was self storage. This one, I didn't, I didn't even think about as a recession resilient asset class, but it's actually outpaced traditional real estate over the last 15 years. For some reason, when people are looking at their bills and what they choose to pay, storage is one of them. They want to protect the things that they own, their family heirlooms, whatever it is, businesses want to protect the things that they have, they're putting it in storage. So those are the three asset classes that we're investing in. So our strategy isn't predict markets. It's positioning in that river, right where is the money flowing to? And it's workforce housing, senior housing and self storage. So I always tell people, the question isn't Are you investing in real estate? It's what real estate are you investing in, and are you positioned where the capital is flowing towards, or are you trying to swim upstream? And so that's the needs based versus wants based. Real Estate like the wants based, you nailed it, like luxury apartments, vacation rentals, Class A developments, office and retail space, whereas needs based. Place are the three asset classes I just talked about, because people need a place to live. They always need to care for their aging parents. They always need storage. And these are just things that people cannot live without.

Keith Weinhold 30:12

It doesn't surprise people that workforce housing, which is basically entry level housing, and senior housing, are recession resilient. What surprises some people that aren't in the real estate space is how resilient self storage is. Even in recessionary times, people will not give up that storage locker. They get incredibly sentimental off things that have very little value. Or, you know, they're 1985 baseball cards of Roger Clemens or something. They will continue to pay for that self storage unit year after year? Yeah. Now I know that you often discuss what you call the wealth window, why you feel like this specific moment is different in real estate, and why acting beats waiting. Tell us about that.

Dani-Lynn Robison 30:55

What I'm referring to in the wealth window is that point in everybody's life where the combination of active income and compounding is at its peak, right? Because it's always, always, always easier to build a passive income stream when you already have active income working for you. And so I use an example. Doesn't matter what type of career that you have, but imagine somebody investing $2,000 a month at 35 and how that performs compared to somebody who waited till 40 years old and they started investing 4000 a month. So the 40 year old actually doubled the amount that they're investing per month, but the 35 year old is likely going to outperform all the time because of the compounding effect of those five years where they started earlier. Incredible how that works. Yeah, it's incredible. So it's that wealth window that I like to talk about, that people, especially right now, with what's going on I'm getting on the phone. They're like, Danny, this is where my money is. And I know it's not where it should be, but I just don't know what to do. It's this uncertainty. And so I like to talk about the wealth window that, hey, it's not just the return that you're going to be getting because your money's working for you and not sitting in either a place that's getting no return or a very, very low return, but it's also the window of time in which you can actually grow in very, very big ways and allow it to outperform somebody who starts later in life. So I call it the whale of window, because I wanted this imagery of the window closing, and that every single day the window continues to close. And right now, what makes it different than history is what's happened over the last 20 years and what's going to happen over the next 20 years is drastically different. And again, not trying to go fear based messaging, because I hate that more than anybody else, but I am trying to keep it real, right? Careers are already disappearing. I've got a book coming out this next month for physicians, and I was studying what's happening to their industry, right? And we have a lot of engineers that are on our private investor briefings. And as I'm studying those industries, I'm watching things that we maybe wouldn't realize are going to go away, and I'm seeing how it's already started, and that there's some industries or niches within those industries, they're going to go away faster, and that this conversation is not for particular people. It's for everybody, all of us, over the next 510, years, we don't know what's going to happen. We can't predict it. So there's a couple other stats that I wrote down to share on this, because a lot of the people I'm talking to are still sitting in the stock market because they wanted you know something that they were familiar with, right? And something that they knew that they could get their capital out if they wanted. Yeah.

Keith Weinhold 33:25

And we're here at a time when valuations based on PE ratios are near all time highs in the stock

Dani-Lynn Robison 33:31

market, yes. And so the stock market right now. There's two articles that I talk about all the time on my briefings, and the first one was because I just looked to see what's happening recently. And you may even know something that's happened more recent than these. But February 5, Reuters reported us. Software stocks lost nearly a trillion dollars in a week. And I was like a week, and in that article, it was Microsoft and Salesforce as to the service now, I think was in there too. That dropped like five to 7% disruption there, yes, yes. And the Wall Street Journal reported February 3, 300 billion wiped off software in a single day. And so this AI and technology disruption. It's real, and it's in the headlines. And for all of us that who see it coming, it's just moving faster. And I think any of us realize everybody to talk to, they're like, I can't even keep up anymore. I can't keep up with what's going on the market, what's working, what's not working. Every time I try to adapt to something new, something new comes out tomorrow, and we're just kind of stuck in this place of uncertainty. So that's why, again, I'm just really having this big conversation about the time is now. Getting clarity is important right now. Taking action, even if it's small, is important right now, knowing where your money is and whether you can rely on it later is important right now. And for me, needs based real estate is where it's at.

Keith Weinhold 34:49

Few people that are well thought through, in my opinion, believe that AI is going to permanently reduce the workforce, but it could in the short term, but long term, when you look at. The advent of any new invention, it often creates more jobs, but just shifts where they're going to be, whether that's the steam engine or the automobile or electricity or the advent of the Internet. That has what has happened every time, really no substantial net job loss, at least in the long term. But we all need to evolve. We all need to learn and stay current on this. And Danny Lynn, I know that part of the evolution that you talk about for investors is that from operator to allocator tell us about that. Yeah.

Dani-Lynn Robison 35:35

So I love this conversation, because it's not something that people talk about a lot. I bet you have, because you have gone through this journey, right? So I'm going to call stage one landlord. It's where a lot of people enter real estate, because when you want to become a real estate investor, we all aren't sure where to start, but we've already reached ad for dad. And So level one is landlord. Stage two is turnkey, which you talk about a lot on your podcast, and it's kind of that done for you, landlord, rental model. And then stage three is like funds and more passive investing, which I call the allocator model. So how I define operator now, allocator is really in this stage one, stage two, stage three, right? The operator is stage one, landlord, you are doing it, right? You're finding the property. Maybe you're renovating it. Maybe you're doing you're just doing a lot of the work yourself, because maybe you're new, and that's how you think it should be done. So you're the operator in that situation. Stage two turnkey. Now it's done for you right now. You really just need to look at the opportunities, the properties, and you get to choose one, but somebody else found it, they renovated it, they placed a tenant in it. They're probably going to manage it for you. So this one, I think you're part operator, because you are managing some aspects of it. It's still yours. You still control the asset. But you're also part allocator, because you got to just deploy capital into something that somebody else helped do a lot of that work that an operator normally would do. So that's like, kind of your middle ground stage two, right? Which is a great place to be. And then stage three is that discovery of funds, where you can actually deploy capital into people who do everything for you, and you can get, you know, quarterly distributions, or allow things to compound, and you don't have to do any of the work. So those are the three stages that I talk about. And I know you are involved in two out of the three. I am two. You may tell me you're involved in all three, but I know for sure you're involved at a two out of the three, and I think a lot of people are. We've had investors come to us with rental portfolios, and they decided they wanted the mix, right? They wanted to keep some of the properties. They also wanted to liquidate some of the property, or they kept their entire portfolio, and decided, I just want to add funds to the mix. Because you talk about this a lot on your podcast, and that's getting time back right? The return on time. That's why I like return on life, because I think our time is probably our most precious asset, more than finances. In my opinion, I want my time. I want to be able to choose where it's spent. And really, that allocator, this is the banks, right? They're at the top of the pyramid in terms of wealth, the banks and what do they do? They deploy into good operators. So I just think it's an important conversation to have, and it's why I do funds and syndications, and I do that more than anything else, because I saw the lives of my investors turn, and they were just so much happier because they weren't having to manage as much. And again, they still, many of them balance between the two. I just think it's a really great conversation to have

Keith Weinhold 38:26

this metamorphosis from operator to somewhere in the middle, like a turnkey investor, and then finally, an allocator. Yeah. I mean, you're spot on. And that describes me perfectly. I began as an operator where I thought I had to manage my own properties, and I only did that in my local market. Then I learned about turnkey real estate investing, which is still squarely where I am as an investor, but increasingly I do more and more of the allocation because it is substantially more passive, and really that's where you come in. You help me be the bank in many cases, and as a turnkey investor. Oppositely, I want to be the borrower and create leverage and all that. But in the allocator phase, it can make sense to be a lender with liquidity, and you offer this private money lending that I participate in and help me be the allocator. So tell us more about that, and really just what qualifications one needs to invest

Dani-Lynn Robison 39:24

Absolutely. So we have multiple offerings. The one I talk about a lot right now is our freedom notes. And like you said, it's very much like private money lending. It's a promissory note. So one of the things that I've never liked about investing is sometimes it's very confusing how it works. And I say this is Warren Buffett. Actually, you should never invest in something you don't understand. But that's like, my mindset as well as like, if I don't understand it, if it's too complicated for me to understand, then I don't want to invest. And so we've always gone about everything. And you can take, you know, every single podcast I've done with you right from the very beginning. Okay, we just keep things simple. And so freedom notes and all of our offerings are essentially a promissory note of sorts, and you get fixed returns, and it depends on how much you invest. We do have both accredited and non accredited options. The Freedom note is an accredited offering. It does have fixed returns up to 14% and then we actually put in a 2% bonus on top of that for people who do invest long term. And here's why I do that, we're going to be talking about calm capital in a little bit. And I believe in boring investing, right? I believe in investing long term, because emotional investors tend to lose in the end, because they're always moving their money in and out. And it just doesn't work for you long term and so although we give annual liquidity options, giving people the option to get their cash back out once a year, we do that for peace of mind, more than anything else, less than 10% of our investors actually want their cash back. They do believe in the power of long term wealth building, but they love, love, love, the peace of mind that they can have access to their capital if they need it, right? And so that was really, really hard to do in real estate, because real estate is illiquid, right? So we had to work with an attorney for a very long time to figure out how to do it. How do we offer this option, knowing that our money is tied up in real estate? And so it was a lot of conversations back and forth, but we figured it out. Obviously, there's a notice that you have to give us, and we have to have the ability to get the money out of that real estate to be able to give it back. So there's lots of moving parts, but the option is there for peace of mind. So we do that. We also created an income path and a growth path, because some people are at a stage of life where money matters. They actually want the income some people like me at a stage of life where I just want it to grow, and I want to grow as fast as possible, so I invest as much as possible, get the highest return I can, and then I want it to continue to compound, to accelerate that growth. And use time from my side.

Keith Weinhold 41:52

What are the minimum investment amounts? And can you use your 401, k or IRA to invest?

Dani-Lynn Robison 41:57

Yes, so $25,000 is the minimum. So again, we're keeping it accessible to everybody, and you can use your retirement accounts to invest some 401 ks have different rules. Our team can walk you through what those rules are and what to ask in order to determine how to deploy those funds into our investment opportunities.

Keith Weinhold 42:13

Do you put your own skin in the game on these investments? Tell us about that. I mean, I already know the answer, but let the audience know,

Dani-Lynn Robison 42:21

yes, 100% in fact, flip and I, we invest one yes, flip is my husband. Thank you for you and I have been friends for so long. You know who flip is, but my husband flip and I, yeah, we invest 100% in everything that we do. In fact, all of our money is we used to be a little diversified, and we forget that we're just investing in us and our businesses and our real estate. So we do have skin in the game, not just us, our company as well, invest alongside. So we're along the ride with you guys. We believe in this as much as everybody else, and that boils down to character. There's something that I tell people when they're talking to people that they're going to invest in what's most important when I'm on the phone, people say, Danny, what should I have asked that I didn't ask, and sometimes they don't ask that. And so I tell them to I said, this isn't the question you should have asked. And so I always tell people I answer in different ways depending on what we're talking about, but I talk about character. I said, I don't care about my returns when I'm investing. I care about the person I'm investing in, right? That comes first before anything else. Because I don't care if you told me I could get 20% possibly, but if you run away from a deal that goes bad, then I just lost everything. And I could have invested at a lower return with somebody who actually had character and who was going to stay in the fight no matter what happens. And I think we talked about this on our last podcast, Keith, just about real estate and what's happening in the industry right now, and that there are deals that have gone bad, and I've personally had a partner of mine want to leave investors hanging. We bought the deal out from under them. We just said, Nope, you guys can leave. We're taking over. Because I'm never, ever going to do that to my investors. And I think our very first podcast with you, it was talking about the worst deal that we had in a private home. Yeah, our private lender who lend it honest, never even knew what happened to that property, because I paid them everything that they were owed, plus their interest. And they didn't have to know. I would have transparently told them what was going on. But to me, it's just like, this is just my job. This is my duty. Like you trusted me with your money. I'm going to make sure you get everything back. So when I talk about these stories, it's not really stories that I talk about a whole lot, except for that, I relate it to character, and I think it's important for people to know this is one of the questions you should know to ask. It's not just what are you investing in? It's not just what's your track record. It's not just what's your returns. It's who are you as a person, and things are going to go wrong, right? This is life. This is real estate. All you do know is it. Don't know that's right. So things will go wrong. What happens when things go wrong? What happens to the company? What happens to you? What happens to the investors? That is so incredibly important,

Keith Weinhold 44:48

those that put together private money lending offerings like freedom family investments, they can't say that something is a guaranteed return, even though they have a 100% track. Record of investor payouts that's also on time. It's regulated by the SEC the Securities and Exchange Commission. And in the SEC world, guarantee is not a word that you can use. You get a preferred return, meaning that the investor gets paid first and FFI gets paid last, even though the ones putting this all together? Well, Danny Lynn, tell us more about calm capital. I know that's the philosophy behind your upcoming book.

Dani-Lynn Robison 45:31

Yeah, absolutely. So I love the conversation around calm capital because it refers to the whole boring investor idea, right? And letting your money sit and work for you over time, and that's how real wealth is built. So I believe capital preservation should come before aggressive protections. I believe downside protection should come before upside stories. I believe that you don't build and create a strategy around good times. You build and create strategies around all times, no matter what is happening in the market, and that's why needs based real estate is the thing that we stand behind the most. Because we know, no matter what this is, what people are going to prioritize. And I don't have a crystal ball. None of us do. So over the next 510, years, I'm going to invest in what I know, and I'm going to invest in things that I know will always be there and that people are always going to pay for. And that's why I sleep at night. That's why my investors sleep at night, because we are getting our time back. And that's really the philosophy around what this book is about, is just that calm money doesn't panic, because when the market panics, calm investors still win.

Keith Weinhold 46:35

Yeah, I love the premise of calm money. Well, Danny Lynn, investors and our GRE listeners have benefited from you guys's capital architecture call, a free 20 minute session that your team helps people with tell us about that and how they can learn more.

Dani-Lynn Robison 46:52

Yeah, absolutely. So the word I chose for this is window. So you'll text the word window to 66 866, and the capital architecture call is going to do five things. It's a 20 minute session. It's not a sales call. There's no obligation. Doesn't matter whether you invest with us or not, but it's going to do five things for you. First, it's going to show you how to protect and grow your capital. So this is a framework that maps out exactly how your capital should be allocated based on where you're at right now we're going to ask you if you're in preservation mode or growth mode, or maybe a balance of both. So we're just going to help you find that clarity. Second, we're going to look at your taxes. We're not CPAs and we're not tax professionals. So they said, Well, you have high level overview, but there's two ways to build wealth, right? You make money or you keep more of it. So we're going to look at the keep more of it piece and see where some of that is disappearing, and how you can legally structure things to be able to keep more of that and allow that money to be working for you. And then third, we're going to teach you our it's called the Magnus Investment Framework. My marketing team came up with that word. I always laugh when I say it, Magnus, honestly, yeah, it's honestly just the lens on how we're choosing our markets and the asset classes that we enter and which ones we stay away from. A lot of that we talked about today, because it's the conversation that I'm really having and talking about a lot. Fourth is just priority access. This just means a lot of investors are always looking for the inside track, right? They want to know, where do I find these market opportunities? Where do I find the opportunities that everybody else is trusting and I don't know how to navigate my way through the noise. So just by jumping on this call, you're going to be added to our list, and it just means you're going to get first access to anything that we're doing, or anything we're talking about or exploring that also rolls into the last one. This is just for a select few people. We do have $1 amount of a qualification, dollar amount of whether you can do this? And this is just ownership partner program. So I'm actually taking people and taking calls where they say, Danny, I want to own a property with you. So again, it has to make sense for us to actually do that, so we're looking at higher dollar commitments. But if that's of interest to you, when you jump on a call to say, I want to talk about the ownership partner program, they'll find out exactly where you're at, what you want to invest, if it's actually going to meet your goals, and then if it does, then you'll jump on a call with me and we'll talk about the deals that we're looking at. This is really where you get into the point where you get the massive tax advantages, right? Because you're an actual partner with us on the deal. And so the goal with all of this is just to be specific, because you and I can be talking about generalities all we want, but it comes down to your specific situation, right? Your specific goals. What's going on in your life? Where are you right now? Where do you want to go? And so that's what we do on that call text window to 66866,

Keith Weinhold 49:43

for you the listener, just think about if these insights can be personalized for your own situation. That's what you can get on a capital architecture call. And really everything is built around your specific income, your goals, your situation, you. And every person is going to walk away with more clarity than what they came in with, whether they invest with freedom or not. Yeah, it is a very approachable 25k minimum. Consider booking a free 20 minute capital architecture call just text window to 66 866, Danny. A lot of insights here that every investor is going to find helpful. It's been great having you back on the show. Thank you,

Dani-Lynn Robison 50:25

Keith, it was pleasure being here.

Keith Weinhold 50:32

Yeah, the life stages of investor, operator, turnkey investor, and then allocator, with the first one operator. You might think you have to be one first, but you don't. Then turnkey investor. Turnkey investor is a nice place to be. That's a real sweet spot for a lot of people. You get all the real estate pays five ways, advantages of direct ownership plus control. And then finally, the passive investor, the most passive, the allocator. So nice breakdown from Danny Lynn Robinson today, yeah, one way they help is offering freedom. Note, so what I do is, by making a loan to them, I get a stable return with the passivity of a mutual fund, but it's certainly not a mutual fund, and I get moderately good liquidity too, fixed returns, cash flow. This is a cash on cash return of 8% 10% 12% and up to 14% depending on what your liquidity needs are, and more largely backed by this needs based real estate, workforce housing, Senior Living and self storage. If you think that they can help you with that or something else, it can be a good use of your time to book a quick capital architecture. Call with them. Just text the word window to 66 866, text, window to 66 866, now, next week, it's milestone episode, 600 debt is the American dream. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 52:16

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively

Keith Weinhold 52:44

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com

Hear how real estate investors can transition out of active landlording while staying invested in the asset class.

Keith speaks with Ari Rubin, founder of Flock Homes, about using a 721 Exchange to move from directly owned rental properties into a professionally managed partnership structure.

They discuss why exit planning is essential, how this strategy can defer taxes, reduce hands-on management, and provide diversified, passive income and appreciation potential for long-time landlords and portfolio builders alike.

Resources:

To see whether a 721 Exchange could work for your rentals, request a free property evaluation at flockhomes.com/gre

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For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text 1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach

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Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, when it's time for you to sell your rental property, there's a vehicle you may not have heard of that allows you to exchange it into a partnership. This makes it hands off for you. Defers your capital gains tax and depreciation recapture, while you still can enjoy appreciation and cash flow. It's the exit strategy that helps you retire from landlording, known as the 721 exchange today on get rich education,

Corey Coates 0:34

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast, sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Keith Weinhold 1:17

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com, that's Ridge lending group.com,

Speaker 1 1:51

you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 2:07

Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the voice of real estate investing since 2014 today's show should help a lot of people as you grow your real estate portfolio over time. You add to it and you multiply it. You do that by using more of your own money and more of other people's money and more of your equity from one property to buy another property. But we've all got to begin with the end in mind, today's show is about your exit strategy, how to sell your property, whether it's selling all of them or some of them, and you're doing that in both a tax efficient way and a management efficient way, because it's about how to exchange them into a partnership. Still get financial upside for appreciation and cash flow, but yet you achieve about as much passivity as what you would have with a Schwab or say, Vanguard mutual fund. Now, back when GRE began, over 11 years ago, we wouldn't have done a show like this because most new listeners were in acquisition mode learning about the GRE way, and that might still be true, but today, we've got both new listeners and longtime listeners that have engaged with GRE investment coaches and learned from listening to each weekly episode, and have built their portfolios and have turned get rich education into got rich education. Congratulations. A lot of you have now achieved financial freedom, and you're looking for an eventual exit. Now, even if you own dozens of rental properties like I do, you don't feel much management strain most of the time, because also, like I do, you outsource to property managers, but some of you self manage, and you can then achieve real relief when you exit before we bring in our expert guest and discuss The 721 exchange. Hey, you've seen me write about the Iran war in our newsletter, and you've seen me discussing it on YouTube. The short story is that war is really expensive, war is inflationary, and war in Iran could very well be setting us up for another inflationary wave like we had from 2021 to 2023 I'm probably going to talk more about it next week, if the war is still ongoing, and what it means to real estate investors. Also a lot of great episodes coming up here at GRE including the show debut. Two of Redfin chief economist Darrell fairweather PhD, who will be here with us soon as for this week, let's learn about an efficient real estate exit strategy.

Keith Weinhold 5:17

This week's guest is someone that is going to help a lot of you, so I've really anticipated having him on educated at Harvard and Stanford. He went on to become a somewhat conventional investment manager, until he was motivated by his parents experience as Chicago landlords to launch another venture in 2021 which you'll learn about today. Welcome to GRE Ari Rubin

Ari Rubin 5:42

Keith, thank you so much for having me on the show today, and to all your listeners out there. It's great to meet all of you, and thanks for listening in today.

Keith Weinhold 5:49

Yeah, Rubin is spelled r, u, B, I N, yeah, I understand you've heard from some of our listeners

Speaker 2 5:55

exactly, I actually heard about your podcast and your show from a number of our clients will go more into the problem that we're solving and the types of landlords that we work with, but some of them have been listening you to you for a long time. Some of them got motivated to get into real estate because of your show. So yeah, really excited to be here chatting with you today.

Keith Weinhold 6:17

Well, thanks so much. Basically, what you do is you help people retire from landlording, but not real estate. We'll get more into that later. But a lot of times when investors have been in the direct real estate investing game for a while, they begin to feel like they've got their dollars trapped in this real estate game. And it can be easy to argue there's no other place you'd rather have it, but tell us more about that trapped feeling with managing rental properties.

Speaker 2 6:45

Yeah, So Keith, maybe just to start out, I want to just talk about the problem that we're solving at flock. So as everyone knows, and there's a lot of resources out there, real estate is a great place, a great way to build wealth, and it's a lot of work, and it takes a lot of effort and a lot of skill and a lot of time, but we find that not enough folks think about, once you get in, how do you exit? And just for those on the show who are listening, who aren't even in real estate yet, or maybe they're just a couple of years into real estate, you always want to think about your exit, and at a certain point, once you've owned real estate for five years, 10 years, 30 years, at some point in your life, you're going to want to exit, and that's because, at the end of the day, managing and owning Real Estate takes work. You can hire a property manager, but you still have to manage even the best property manager doesn't really solve all the problems of being a landlord. For example, if you have an eviction, you still have to pay for that. If you have a massive capital improvement, roofs to replace, HVACs to do, you're still on the hook for that. Ultimately, you're liable when you own real estate, right? You could be sued. You have a feeling, and you should be responsible for your residence and for the homes. So at the end of the day, at a certain point, every single person in this world will get to the point where they're like, I'm done owning real estate. I want to retire. I want true peace of mind. But the problem with that is, when you're ready to exit, you got to sell. That's really the only way out. Maybe you're fortunate enough to have some kids who want to take over the business or the properties, but you know, if you're like a lot of clients that we work with, your kids, maybe they're on to bigger and better things. They've moved across the country. Or, you know, this generation doesn't fix things like the last one did, right? And so unless you have kids who are really, really ready to step up and be super hands on, you don't have an exit and selling, of course, triggers a huge tax liability. So when you sell real estate, you not only have to maybe kick out your tenants and stage the house and pay all the frictions and all the fees, the biggest thing is you have to pay capital gains and depreciation or capture taxes. And we'll come back into what all that means and all how that looks like. So in summary, when you sell real estate and you've owned for a long time, you could be faced with losing upwards of 30% of your equity, which is a lot of money. That's a big chunk of your nest egg, of your net worth. You also you love real estate, you've done really, really well with real estate. So at flock, we've built the retirement solution for landlords, and we'll go more into how this all works, but essentially, we help people with the most cost efficient, seamless exit strategy by exchanging their equity for shares. In our larger fund. So that's just very quickly, the problem that we're solving and some of the clients, the problem that we work with

Keith Weinhold 10:08

this is important. I'm a longtime real estate investor. I have not self managed in many years, but I basically asset manage my managers oftentimes reading their monthly statements, replying to emails about various things, but yeah, there is some day in which I probably wish to not have to do that anymore, and indeed, selling it all would incur a steep capital gains tax. Now what I've done is I've done cash out refinances and 1031 exchanges along the way to continue to defer any tax obligation that I have. But of course, when I do a 1031, exchange, I grow my portfolio, and there's more to manage,

Speaker 2 10:50

exactly. So you know, you just laid out two excellent options out there for ways to sort of consolidate, or, you could say, even better, leverage your equity in real estate. You can do a cash out refi, and that's of course, where you pull cash out of the properties so you're more liquid, or you buy more real estate, or you can do something called a 1031 exchange. And Keith, I'm sure a lot of your listeners out there know what a 1031 exchange is, but just for everyone listening in in or in case folks are less familiar, a 1031 exchange is essentially a real estate loophole. It used to apply to artwork and airplanes and a lot of other stuff. Now it's just real estate, and it's a part of the tax code that says you can sell your real estate, and if you follow this process within a certain timeframe, and then use what's called a Qualified Intermediary, you can roll those proceeds forward and buy new real estate and defer that tax liability into the future. Now the benefit to that is you just achieve tax deferral, but as you said, you still own real estate, and so for a lot of younger investors out there, a 1031 exchange is a really effective way to continue to grow their portfolio, or be more thoughtful about their approach. But for longer time real estate investors, a 1031 exchange doesn't really solve your problem. You still own real estate, you're still liable for tenants, for toilets, for trash, right? And so if you're trying to really retire from being a landlord, a 1031 exchange doesn't really do that. And of course, a cash out refi, all that does is just take on more debt and more risk and more liability. Great option if you're young and you're still trying to grow when we hear from a lot of clients, maybe not the best option in the second half of your life as you're really trying to focus on wealth preservation.

Keith Weinhold 12:51

Yes, a lot of our listeners are indeed familiar with the 1031, tax deferred exchange. You're typically trading up and deferring your tax on the way. And that trading up, it really just gets you even more into real estate investing, because with almost every 1031 exchange, you're going to own more doors than when you began the process. However, a lot of people aren't as familiar with the 721 exchange. Why are people less familiar with it? Ari

Speaker 2 13:21

great question, Keith, and you're right, less people are familiar with it. So in plain English, the 721 exchange, it's also part of the tax code. It's not a real estate loophole. It actually applies to equities or many other asset classes. And in plain English, what it says is, Keith, you own, let's say a million dollars worth of assets you can exchange. You can contribute those assets into a partnership and receive back a million dollars worth of shares or units of the partnership. And in doing so, it's a tax deferred exchange. There are some nuances that you have to be mindful of, just like in a 1031 exchange in terms of boots and cash out refis, but as a general rule, it's a lot more flexible and a lot more seamless than a 1031 exchange. And so again, Keith, you sell, you exchange, you contribute your properties into a fund or into a partnership using the 721 exchange. You now own shares of that partnership. You get all the returns and cash flow and ongoing tax benefits from owning shares in the partnership. To your question, why do less people know about the 721 exchange? It's very common in large commercial real estate, big real estate investment trusts have been using the 721 exchange for decades. The problem with it is it's really complicated to do. So these transactions are quite laborious. There's lots of paperwork. Historically, you would need an army of lawyers and accountants and tax professionals just to consummate one of these things. Surely, if you had a $500 million apartment building or office complex, you would be familiar with this. But until now, no one had really built this for the little guy. And I'm putting that in quotes, right? Because, you know, if you own 10 single family rental homes, 50 single family rental homes, even one single family rental home, you could have hundreds of 1000s of dollars, millions of dollars of equity. You're not such a little guy or gal, right? But these are the moms and pops who own the vast majority of real estate in this country. And so our idea at floc was to go out and, for lack of a better term, democratize access, to give access to this really powerful wealth preservation tool, the 721 exchange, a mechanism that's been used by ultra high net worth families and big institutional investors and big Wall Street firms for decades, and really enable it to the masses out there, To the millions and millions of hardworking Americans who have built up these properties, these portfolios, for decades.

Keith Weinhold 16:27

I've got to say I had heard of the 721 exchange quite a long time ago, but it wasn't until last year that I became more familiar with it, and more familiar with what you do, and realizing that this could help an awful lot of people. You're listening to get rich education. We're talking with flock homes founder, Ari Rubin, about the 721 exchange, how it works and how it might be able to help you more when we come back, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold,

Keith Weinhold 16:53

let me throw out a simple idea, sometimes doing nothing with your money is actually a decision. Leaving it parked. Might feel safe, but over time, purchasing power changes. So the conversation isn't about chasing returns, it's about intentionally placing money somewhere. Freedom. Family investments works in real estate people use every day, housing, senior communities, essential properties, things tied to living and not trends. Their freedom notes offering is built for accredited investors looking for structured income backed by real assets, not speculation. I am an investor with them myself. The Freedom team makes themselves available to walk through their approach, structure and operating philosophy so you can ask questions and determine alignment before moving forward, while past performance doesn't guarantee future results, their historical operating philosophy has yielded 100% investor payouts backed by over 20 years of experience. If you want clarity before making any moves. Book, a clarity call at Freedom family investments.com or text family to 66 866, text the word family to 66866

Keith Weinhold 18:15

flock homes helps you retire from real estate and landlording, whether it's one problem, property or your whole portfolio, through a 721 exchange, deferring your capital gains, tax and depreciation recapture. It's a strategy long used by the ultra wealthy. Now Mom and Pop landlords can 721 the residential real estate request your initial valuation. See if your properties [email protected] slash GRE. That's f, l, O, C, K, homes.com/g R, E.

Todd Drowlette 18:54

This is the star of the A and E show the real estate commission. Todd rollette. Listen to get rich education with my friend, Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream. Welcome

Keith Weinhold 19:04

back to get rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, here on episode 598 we're talking with flock homes founder, Ari Rubin, where they help real estate investors retire from landlording, but not so much real estate with a 721, exchange is something that can be used for retiring landlords along with active landlords if they're just looking to offload one or two properties to exchange into this partnership that we've been talking about. And Ari on your website. It was interesting. I watched the video of you and a woman where you somewhat had to convince the woman to start this fund that did not have any properties in it yet, which is really interesting. And before we're done, we'll talk about. How many properties you have in the portfolio and how many investors you have, but this is something that an investor can exchange their properties into, and yet they still receive the financial upside of both cash flow and appreciation. So tell us more about that

Speaker 2 20:16

exactly. So I'll just quickly explain how it all works. And I do want to also touch on our first client ever, our first landlord ever. Surely, everyone has their story of how they got started in real estate. But you know, for us, at the end of the day, it's a people business. You know, our clients are the millions and millions of mom and pop landlords out there. Shirley was a single mom, Navy vet physician, had this home that she used to live in. She knew she should be building wealth through real estate, so she held on to the property. It was the middle of covid. She had a long term tenant. The tenant moved out, and she didn't know what to do, and she got mailers every single day on, you know, oh, we'll buy ugly houses and we'll buy this thing, but she didn't want to sell because she knew she didn't want to sell. She wasn't a distressed seller, right? And when she sold, of course, she would be triggering taxes, and she knew real estate was a great asset class to be in, and she didn't want to give up all of that upside. So Shirley was our first client, and she still is with us today, very near and dear to our hearts. And yeah, you should check out the video online. It's an amazing story, and we have many, many stories like that, of families that we've worked with. So Keith, to your question of how it all works, exactly. So Keith or Shirley or Mom and Pop will sell their property. They'll exchange their property for the equivalent value of shares in our fund. So let's say it's a $300,000 house and there's no mortgage on it. We do take properties with a little bit of debt, but let's just say, for easy numbers, you sell the property and you now have $300,000 worth of shares in our fund. So first and foremost, you're no longer responsible or liable for the property. You don't own it anymore. You don't manage it anymore. The tenants, of course, the residents get to stay in the home. It is now one rental property of the many inside of our portfolio that the flock team manages. We collect the rent, we do all the renovations, we hold back for expenses, right? And you are now a fully passive shareholder in this larger partnership. So what does that mean for you? First and foremost, you did not trigger taxes on day one. You get to defer those taxes, just like you would in a 1031, exchange. And of course, you can hold on to it, pass it on to your heirs, who still get the step up in basis. Great. In addition to that, what does this mean that you own shares in this real estate? Well, you're going to get all the returns from the real estate just like you would with your own real estate. So what are the two things that drive returns? The first thing is your paper gains, right? Your equity appreciation. The market goes up in value. Our properties go up in value. You receive appreciation to your equity, to your account. By the way, sometimes markets go down in value. Real Estate doesn't just go up, right? And of course, as that happens as well, your equity account will go down as well. But we believe that over the long term, and if you look back at historical kind of performance of the real estate market, we really believe in single family as an asset class. So that's the first thing that drives your returns. It's the appreciation of the properties. And then, of course, the second thing is the net income. It's the rents that we collect from the properties, less the expenses, property tax, insurance, right, maintenance, vacancy, reserves, all of the regular expenses that you have. We also have, as a large institutional real estate owner, and so those two things together, one, the appreciation, as well as two, the net income drive your total returns from the flock vehicle. You could take cash flow from your investment just like you would from your real estate. We pay that out quarterly. It's never been late. We've been operating since 2021 you know, we have a lot of clients who leave their cash flow in to reinvest it and kind of increase their basis. We have a lot of clients who live on their cash flow like they would Social Security or a pension or something like that, just like they did in their real estate portfolio.

Keith Weinhold 24:44

Now, people sometimes get sentimental about their own home, less sentimental about the rental properties, but if you have any attachment to it, effectively, when you exchange it into this fund, you're still helping get some return from your own. Own properties that you contributed into the fund there, but you're going to be more diversified effectively nationally with the real estate market then

Speaker 2 25:08

exactly. And Keith, you bring up a really great point, which is a lot of our clients and a lot of real estate investors, they're sentimental about their real estate investments, like these are houses that they used to live in, or they built, or they've had the same residents in place for 515, 25, years. I mean, we've literally seen people who have had the same residents in place for a very, very long time, and they have that sentimental attachment. And our clients see one of the benefits to joining flock is they're joining together with other like minded owners to leverage the benefits of scale. They still own that house, but they own it with a bunch of other you know, we now have 1100 homes. We'll soon hit 1500 homes, right? They have some connection to that house, but they're much larger, which means better margins. They're much more diversified. So if, God forbid, something happens that one individual property, their risk is spread out. And of course, you know, they're more passive. They're no longer liable, so on and so forth. So a lot of people really like flock because of that sort of sentimental attachment they have to their real estate. By the way, we also have a lot of people who bought their turnkey providers, or they're just, you know, a business guy or a business gal, and they don't care at all, and they're just like, I don't even know the addresses on these things. Just take this and move on. So we've met and interacted with lots of different types of landlords over the years,

Keith Weinhold 26:43

I'm a turnkey real estate investor. I have not seen most of my properties in person, so there's certainly no sentimental attachment to them. But let's talk more about how it practically works and feels for that investor that say they want to sell three rental, single family homes that total $1 million in value, whether that's their entire portfolio or those three properties are just part of it, would flack do an inspection and then handle the renovations and make an offer

Ari Rubin 27:12

exactly so before I walk you through the process, I want to also just lay out what our incentives Are. We're very different than most real estate buyers. We're not trying to flip houses. We're not a flipper. That's not our business model. That's not how we make money. Our goal is not to buy your houses. You know, in the example, you said three houses worth about a million dollars. Our goal is not to buy them for 900 and flip them and make a quick buck, right? Our goal is to solve this problem for you, to bring you into flock as a client, to of course, then provide you with good financial returns, which means providing the resident with good service, bringing the home up to our standards, hardening the asset and making sure it's a great place to live, and it performs as underwritten. And so what all that means is upfront, we'll give you an initial valuation based on public data, other proprietary data that we have. We'll ask you a couple of questions about the house, and then before we close, we do inspect the property, and after the inspection, our final valuation will either go down in value, if not everything was represented, as you said, or it'll go up in value after inspection, our goal is 50% of the time to increase the value. Okay, which in real estate is kind of a weird concept, because which buyer wants to pay more money? Well, our goal is not to buy low from you, it's to create a fair system for all the clients that have put their properties into flock, right? So we'll then come up with a final valuation. Let's just say, like in your example, a million dollars for those three properties. We then sign what's called a contribution agreement. And by the way, during that period, you're doing due diligence on us. You're getting to know our team. You know people are entrusting us with a lot of money, their real estate, that they've worked, that they know. They know these residents, they know the every corner of that house. So we need to due diligence your real estate, you need to due diligence us, our team, our processes, our systems, our track record, the types of homes that we own. We'll show you every home that we own. We'll walk you through our financials. We get audit. We use a third party fund administrator. We get audited by KPMG every year to make sure our valuations, we use best in class service providers. You'll go through all this information. We do the same. That process typically takes about three to six weeks, and then you come to a decision, Hey, I like flock. I want to move forward. We come to a decision. We like that home. We want to bring it into our fund. It meets our threshold. It's going to be a good investment for all of our investors, all of our clients, in flock. And then we would move forward together that whole process about four to six weeks, and then closing takes about 15 days or so.

Keith Weinhold 30:17

Okay, yeah, it's really important that you offer that renovation and that you take care of that there, I was relieved when I found that out, because really, that's the problem that you're looking to solve to get landlords out of that entire process. And they sure don't want to have to manage another wave of that during their exchange into the fund, and yeah, they want it to be hands off and mostly passive, and therefore have their homes in their flock fund be just about as passive as managing a mutual fund would

Ari Rubin 30:47

be exactly. And that's how we want our clients to think about it. You know, we've seen some folks try to do the renovations on their own. You can do it. We never recommend it, and oftentimes it's more work and more hassle than it's really worth another big thing is, if there's a resident in place, number one for you, kicking out a resident is not a nice thing to do. It's also a drag on your financials. That's several months of no income, right? That you could be earning income, whether it's through flock or elsewhere, and you have expenses, you have insurance, your property taxes during that period. So yeah, we'll take on the whole renovation if required. It's worth adding, by the way, we don't take every property we walk away from, way more properties than we accept. Yeah, you have the buy box. We have a Buy Box, which I'll tell you guys more about. But in addition to having a Buy Box, if a property requires extensive foundation issues or extensive renovations. That's beyond our scope, really, if there's a lot of uncertainty in it, we don't want to be subjecting all of our existing clients to that risk. You know, our view is we never compromise on price, on quality, on risk, and so we don't touch, you know, really messy, really hairy stuff, but we aren't afraid of, you know, rolling up our sleeves, and we'll typically do renovations up to 30% of the value of the home. So we do do a lot of value add work. Some of that is on day one. If it's health and safety and the resident needs certain things, we'll do that on day one. Other things are more value add once the resident decides to leave at some point in the future.

Keith Weinhold 32:23

Well, I'm so glad you brought up earlier about taking care of the tenant, because one of our core missions here at GRE is to do good in the world, provide housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional. So when it comes to the ongoing property management, I imagine that plays into your Buy Box, where you're only going to have property managers in so many markets, exactly.

Speaker 2 32:45

So we're in about 20 markets around the country. It's kind of a combination of higher yielding markets. These are more like Midwestern markets, Ohio, Michigan, where Memphis, where Baton Rouge. We're also in what I would call more like growth markets, certain markets in Texas where you see really strong net migration right yields are a little bit lower there Denver is similarly as a market where you see a little bit lower yields, but still really positive job growth and economic tailwinds to those markets. We're in about 20 markets. We're open to opening new markets if there's a right kind of partnership and a right strategic portfolio or acquisition or client there. But yeah, we don't take every home, you know. We don't do short term rentals. We really just focus on our bread and butter. What we know how to do, which is one to four unit long term rental properties.

Keith Weinhold 33:39

Well, tell us more about that Buy Box.

Ari Rubin 33:43

So typically, again, we're in about 20 markets or so, also looking to expand. We take single family homes, duplexes, triplexes and fourplexes. We'll look at some condos, but as you know, some HOAs are a little bit too restrictive, and so we just try to stay away from that uncertainty, and then we have a certain yield profile and sort of price range that we're looking to hit. So in every market that differs, in Denver, we wouldn't take over. I think it's a $650,000 home, because once you start getting into the higher which in Denver is actually the median home price is a lot higher in Denver than the national average. Right? In other markets, our average price point, we're in Raleigh and around Raleigh, our average price point in Raleigh is much lower than that. So I'd say on average, our average price point per unit or per door is about $220,000 but yeah, one to four units, we unfortunately don't take pools. Yeah, we don't take properties with pools because of some insurance risks, although we have worked with some owners to bury pools, and it needs to be in a market, just lastly, where we can price it. So if it's a, you know, we're in Denver. That was where we started the business. That's where our headquarters is. You know, if there's a property an hour and two. 20 minutes outside of Denver, kind of in the middle of nowhere on four acres with it's just hard to price that. And so even if we can operate it, we need to make sure we can price it both upfront and then on an ongoing basis. So that's a little bit more about our Buy Box. But if you want to learn more, if you have a larger portfolio, of course, reach out to us. Well, you probably mentioned this, Keith, but it's flatcombs.com/gre, and we'll take a look at your property or your portfolio.

Keith Weinhold 35:29

This can help you retire from landlording, but not real estate. Make it completely hands off for you, but still get financial upside in the form of cash flow and appreciation while getting that tax deferral. And you can effectively make this tax free if these shares are inherited by your heirs with that step up in basis. And you can avoid the capital gains tax, which is typically 15 to 20% depending on your income. And if you have a high income, there's a net investment income tax of 3.8% on top of that, you also had the depreciation recapture to repay if you just sell your property out on the open market, but a 721 exchange prevents you from having to pay for any of that. So you're really solving a terrific problem for people here, Ari and just a great exit strategy for those that want to retire from real estate investing or maybe just sell a smaller portion some problem properties. You have any last thoughts overall about the 721 exchange and how you're helping people with their exit strategy?

Ari Rubin 36:36

Ari, this is like the best kept secret in real estate at the 721 exchange, we're now expanding it to multifamily. Eventually, we want to be doing this for every real estate asset class. I've heard of folks doing this for self storage. One day, we want to do this for gas stations, for small hotels. And really do this across all real estate asset classes. We think the one to four unit space is the most exciting, by far, the largest opportunity, and also the biggest opportunity to really create value for communities and for residents, which is something we're really, really passionate about. And so yeah, I would love to hear from you all. And Keith, thanks again for having me on today. This has been a great show, and I'm a big fan of your listeners and everything you guys are doing here.

Keith Weinhold 37:21

Any savvy investor has to begin with, the end in mind, Ari had a convenient landing page put up to welcome a GRE, listeners again at flockhomes.com/gre this has been valuable, Ari. It's been great having you here.

Ari Rubin 37:36

Keith. Thank you so much. You

Keith Weinhold 37:44

Oh, this has been really informative from Ari Rubin today on an efficient exit strategy that a lot of real estate investors don't know much about, retiring from landlording and yet not retiring from real estate, you're staying in the game, and yet, what you're doing is trading away active management in order to get passive ownership. And it makes sense that they make it hands off and kind of a turnkey exit experience for you. They're not using that term, but I am. If you're looking to retire, you sure don't want to be the one that has to first jump more hurdles at the end and handle an inspection punch list and coordinate with contractors, so they're helping a lot of people, and they seem to be on a good trajectory for success. You know, really, as you're still building your portfolio while you're still in acquisition mode, it's kind of comforting to know that this is out there is an option. It kind of motivates you to want to build your portfolio more now that you know about other options at the end, even if a 721, exchange, time is decades away for you, I don't know if you caught that, they have 1100 homes in their portfolio. Now, as you see over on that landing page that I mentioned, they even simplify your tax filing. You just receive one consolidated annual tax packet prepared by KPMG. If you think it's interesting to you or you just want to learn more about the 721 exchange or get a free evaluation, you can do that again by [email protected] slash GRE that's F, l, O, C, K, homes.com/g R, E, until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 3 39:39

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 39:58

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Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold talking with a 19 year old guest that I befriended last year. He's a college sophomore with a real estate investing related major. What does he think about generation Z's future is in person, social life, dead. And what do you really learn about real estate and economics in college today on get rich education.

Corey Coates 0:27

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android. Listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast, sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Keith Weinhold 1:11

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com

Speaker 1 1:44

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 2:00

Welcome to GRE from Concord, New Hampshire to Concord, California and across 188 nations worldwide, you're listening to one of America's longest running and most listened to shows on real estate investing. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education. Increasingly, you know, people ask why even go to college? Is the value of higher education even worth it to drag yourself to an 8am American Lit class while living off of dining hall Breakfast Biscuits and chicken strips for $100,000 a year, it's been estimated that one in seven men are meats, n, e, e, t, that means not in education, employed or training. Why put on a suit and tie and show up at a job when you have a reasonable facsimile of life online and you have discord and Reddit and trade stocks on Robinhood and crypto on Coinbase. Now I don't think that's going to be good for you, and I still think that there are a lot of positives about attending college. At least 15 to 20 colleges close each year in the United States. And despite this, you know, most people that I talk to, they still seem to be mostly positive about college, or they have this expectation that their kids go to college. So anecdotally, this hasn't changed. I probably wouldn't even be as aware of this shift if I didn't read media like I do, if I just talked to people informally, I really wouldn't know. One thing that has not changed also is the notion of the broke college student. I used to be one of those. Now America is just a couple years removed from that wave of elevated inflation and war in Iran has positioned to stoke a second wave of inflation. Today's guest told me that he does pay credit card finance charges, even though he makes more than the minimum payment, just kind of like I did as a college student. The default state of teenage society today is different. It used to be boredom, and now that's been replaced with anxiety. That part has certainly changed, and often it tends to be teen anxiety over such nonsense things. I mean, I have a teenage niece. One example is the burden of maintaining your Snapchat streak? Oh my gosh, if you're a Gen Z or you know what I'm talking about, basically a snap streak where you've got to send a friend a photo or video every single day to keep your streak going, two people have to send it to each other, and people with long streaks, they even like send each other a photo of the floor, just. To keep the streak going. I mean, talk about anxiety over the wrong things.

Keith Weinhold 5:04

Well, today's team guest Hunter, he has a somewhat better grip on life. I haven't met his parents yet, but they've done an amazing job. In fact, Hunter's dad owns rental property, which kind of helps to fuel some of his interests and desire. But in order to cope with inflation and expenses, buy now pay later programs have really taken off. They're widely known, but less widely known. Our rent now pay later plans. They're booming. Platforms like livable, flex and affirm. They're used by lower income and lower credit score tenants that often live paycheck to paycheck. And how it works is that these tenants are extended money at the beginning of the month to pay the rent. They often pay a flat subscription fee plus 1% of the rent. And you know, hey, that could be better than the tenant paying late fees to the landlord. I learned from one tenant that had trouble paying his $1,850 in rent that flex charged him a $15 monthly subscription plus 1% of the total rent for providing the service. So his total fees for the app were around $33 a month rent. Now pay later. You're probably only going to hear more about it, but if you're a landlord, you probably do not know that your tenant is using a rent now, pay later plan, because you just received the full payment on time, and then your tenant pays back the service later. Remember, it is called rent. Now, pay later. Oh, before we bring in our guest, can I ask you for some quick help? Maybe you wanted to tell me what you think about the show. You could have been listening for years, but you don't think that you can reach me. If this show has helped you become a better investor, the best way to support the podcast is to leave a quick rating or review. It helps more investors discover the show. Just tap the five stars in your podcast app. It can take as little as 10 seconds, and I will read it myself. Thanks in advance for leaving a rating and review. Let's meet this week's guest.

Keith Weinhold 7:22

This week's guest is the youngest we've ever had in show history. He's a teenager, so he's about a generation younger than me, and it's his first time on a podcast. He is a sophomore student athlete at the University of Alaska Anchorage, where he competes in the 800 meters for the track and field team. He runs about a 155 his major is management, with a specialization in real estate and property management, and he's just into so many things beyond athletics and academics, he serves as an ambassador for the Widener property management and real estate program. He's also an officer of the real estate management and investment club from Wisconsin. He's 19 years old, a straight A student. He's also an RA that's a Resident Assistant there helping out students at the dorms. Welcome to GRE Hunter, toddy.

Hunter Taddy 8:18

Yeah, I'm happy to be here. Thanks for having me.

Keith Weinhold 8:20

Taddy is spelled T, A, D, D, Y. I met Hunter almost six months ago. A property manager introduced us just thinking that we might have some things in common, and she sure was right. We've gotten together a few times, including going running at one time where, well, I had more than a little trouble keeping up with an active college athlete. The last time we sat down for coffee, just last week, I looked at my watch. We were done, and we sat almost two and a half hours like how many teenagers could really hold my attention for that long? But he just understands the world and politics surprisingly well. For a 19 year old. He's confident and well thought out. He's read War and Peace. He even got some of his own cooking and avoids seed oils. And you know, Hunter being born in 2006 when GRE debuted in 2014 you were eight years old. So before we talk about you, let's talk about your generation, generation Z What do you think some of the markers of your generation are?

Keith Weinhold 9:28

Yeah, so it's as I've shared with you in the past. It's interesting, because especially at UA, I'm mostly surrounded by like, athletes. So athletes tend to be a lot more social, just like how they grown up, they're always around people that tend to be a lot more driven. But then when I talk to, like, non athletes, it's a little bit different. Like, my generation is definitely they're on their phone a lot. I mean, I've told you before, like, I avoid social media. Well, I wouldn't say like the flag, but I avoid it a lot, because I know, hey, how addicting it is. And B, just like, you know, the.The word of my generation is slop or brain rot, and which is most of the stuff on the internet, but Yeah, seems to be like, there's a lot of anxiety in my generation, a lot of, like, lack of accountability, which I've noticed a lot lot of, like, lack of responsibility. And it's almost like self indulgent in a way, where it's like, oh I'm so lazy, or Oh, I'm so this, or I'm so that, and it's just kind of weird. You don't really get that much with like the athletes. Back to the social aspect. I don't know if you've seen that headline recently, that's like, the alcohol industry has lost eight, $30 million over the past four years because he doesn't drink. The real story isn't about Gen Z not wanting to drink alcohol. It's about Gen Z, not like really being social, right? I mean, I don't see that many like, Hangouts as much as, like, when I hear from, like my parents, you know, every night you're going somewhere with your friends or your you know, you're going to the bar, you're going to a bonfire, or things like that. And it's just, you don't see it as much. A lot of people are just in their rooms or online and, you know, the online gaming, online gaming, I don't game a lot, but gaming with friends is actually really fun to do sometimes. But everything's a lot more digital, you know, from the communication to like the spaces, you know, where you hang out, whether it's video games or whether it's VR chat, and some people do that, or discord, or just like internet forums and things like that. Yeah, just lot more digital.

Keith Weinhold 11:24

Yeah, you use little or no social media. Personally, I know you manage the Instagram page for your real estate organization, but yeah, there is more of this perception of in person, social life, maybe not dead, but dying. I've learned that 51% of 18 to 24 year old men have never asked out a woman in person you were sharing with me at how you know people have anxiety just about ordering food in person at a restaurant in Gen Z.

Hunter Taddy 11:54

That's actually funny. So because of how that conversation escalated, I technically did ask her out in Snapchat, but then she was like, you have to ask me out in person. And then I did eventually ask her out in person.

Keith Weinhold 12:06

Now, when it comes to in person meetings, after a few meetings with you, I noticed something rare when it's about seeing people in person, you have virtues that I think are somewhat rare for Generation Z. I mean, you actually show up on time. This this chat we're having right now. It's the fourth time we've gotten together, and you actually showed up early each of the four times, which is something that I really notice and appreciate, which, even for people my age, it seems like it's a virtue that they've lost. I mean, showing up on time is just common decency. That's just doing what you said that you were going to do. I find that pretty interesting. But when it comes to your generation being in college now, I mean, college is tough. You know, when I went to college, I took on student loans. My parents and I each paid for half of the tuition, and also worked a part time job while I was there. So I mean, you hang out with a lot of athletes, but how is it with balancing, you know, the income and student loans? Because, you know, college kids are still pretty poor

Hunter Taddy 13:10

I wanted to run for a division two program, because you can get athletic scholarship. I came in as a walk on. I'm not on any athletic scholarship. I get free housing and free meals for being an RA. Yeah, with my RA position, I actually got the RA position my second semester. So I got it as a freshman, which was like, really, really clutch. So my dad was in the Air Force for 20 years, and I got the GI bill for like, I think, six months. So I got my two first semesters of tuition paid for, and then I got some, like, some money for, like, housing and stuff. I mean, I pocketed most of that just because, I mean, I got it for free already. I don't get any more help from the GI Bill, because I'm not in Wisconsin. But if I went to Wisconsin, I could go to any school for free, like, tuition free. So, I mean, sometimes I do think about that, but with my real estate program. I mean, oh my gosh, the scholarship deadline. Every year they give out like, $50,000 in scholarships. A lot of them are from Widener and then just other like local real estate companies in the area. Last year, I got a $2,500 scholarship to travel to the National Apartment Association's apartmentalized It's like, their yearly conference in Las Vegas, and that was pretty cool. So that stuff kind of went over my head, but a lot of the stuff about AI was, like, just really interesting to hear, especially just about property management. And it's crazy to me, because, like, AI is almost like, my generation's thing, since we're, like, growing up with it, yeah. And then hearing, like, a lot of like, the older people in the property management profession talk about, I mean, they're still talking about when they had to keep their records on pen and paper, or, like, files and stuff. And I'm like, This is crazy. So I have scholarships with the real estate program, if I'm lucky, I can get up to almost $10,000 after the spring. It's.That means I pay in state tuition because I live on campus. It was a deal they were running after covid. So that's only like $5,700 I mean, my scholarships will be able to cover that. This semester, I paid like 2000 of it or something, and then my parents were kind enough to cover the rest, and then I'm going to pay them back right away after the year ends once I get those scholarships. And then, yeah, I get $11 an hour for working desk at my RA job. It's tax free, so, I mean, it's not totally bad, but I don't working desk hours that much because we only have them at night. And then, you know, being an athlete, I don't like staying up until, you know, one o'clock sometimes. I mean, the other night, I had to work a nine to three desk shift, and that screwed my whole for an entire week. Yeah. Okay,

Keith Weinhold 15:48

so when you graduate college in a few years, you could very well come out with a lower student loan balance than a lot of others did, although you might still have an informal loan with dad in there as well. How do you and a lot of people of your generation see your financial future? They sure can be hard to predict, but a lot of people see this crushing debt with student loans, and I wonder, even though it could be far into the future if really Gen Z thinks that they're ever going to be able to afford a home. Now, when it comes to the student loans, I know I shared with you when we sat down for coffee that I had a balance. I think it was like a $20,000 balance when I graduated, because again, my parents paid half of it and I worked part time when I went to school, I shared with you that I just took that balance and paid very little interest on my student loan balance because I kept transferring it repeatedly onto these 0% APR credit cards, and when my introductory rate expired on one card, I would just transfer it onto another card. So I've long been comfortable with debt.

Hunter Taddy 16:52

So me, personally, I do not want to take out a loan from any entity. I'm very fortunate and privileged that my parents are able to, you know, front that money for me when I need it. When I need it, I try to pay them back right away. I do not want student loans like my goal is to get out of college, you know, without owing anybody any money. It's weird, because I'm from such a small town in Wisconsin, and I view trades a lot differently than, like a lot of my peers who grew up in the big cities, I know blue collar millionaires, right? People who just, you know, put their nose to the grindstone, pouring concrete. You know, working driving a semi. Only do that for maybe five or 10 years, like my cousins. My cousin pours concrete, and then the other one, I think, works for construction company, the Midwestern work ethic, they're sitting on 10s of 1000s of dollars in their savings account right now. You can make the argument. Well, their back is going to give out in a couple years. And some of that's true. But also, you know, you don't have to be the guy pouring concrete for how long. You could be the business owner, or you could be the guy who's the plumber for 510, years, and then, you know, start your own plumbing business. That's why I don't look at student loans as, like, I need this college degree to, like, make money or be successful. Like, I've met a lot of people who legitimately have that mindset. That's like, I understand that if you've grown up in that sort of, like sphere, you've grown up with those ideas. But to me, it's like, I know if I can't pay for college, or if I don't graduate college, I know I'm going to be fine. I could go, you know, work construction, or I could go, you know, mow lawns or something. I know, I guess I just view it differently. But a lot of people think they need those student loans. So, I mean, they sign up for them. And I looked it up the other day, the average time to pay off student loans is, like, 20 years or something like that. Yeah, I believe it. That is kind of sad. That's insane to me. I want my lawyers going to college. I want my doctors going to college. I want to college. I want all these people to have a good education. But I mean, like 100,000 to $200,000 I just see that, and it's like, oh, I don't know, man, I sign up for the fast flow every year, but I never get anything Free Application for Federal Student Aid, yeah, but I know some people get, like, Pell Grants. If I'm not wrong, I think the Pell Grants are just, I don't know they have to pay those back. It seemed like I was applying for the Stafford Loan. I was lower middle class. I don't think we quite qualified for the Pell grant. The grant being like, free money and a loan of stuff that you need to pay back. Yeah, of course. And of course, in addition to student loans, we regularly have students using credit cards and probably not being able to pay the full balance, is they make their way and try to pay their way through college. That's certainly one thing that I did.

Hunter Taddy 19:28

Here's something for you, DoorDash, my generation and DoorDash is so crazy. I mean, I look at some of these people we have like a desk, at some of the halls, and the amount of people who just DoorDash some of these people are doordashing every night. And that's not cheap, like, that's sometimes it's like 30 bucks just to get Taco Bell or, you know, Wingstop or something like that, and then Klarna, it's like, finance a pizza. Like, what are we doing here?

Keith Weinhold 19:54

Sure, yeah, you're making a down payment on a blooming onion and financing it and making the last payment on it. Years later or something. Yeah, crazy like that, 100% and yeah, I would imagine home ownership is just seen as something that's so far into the future, it's almost unfathomable.

Hunter Taddy 20:12

Yeah, it's funny to me, because, you know, I come from, again, very small town, the cost of living is, like, extremely low compared to the country. I'm pretty sure Green Bay was voted number one place to live by us, News and World Report couple years ago, number one place to live in the United States. But more of the people back home who work these jobs in the trades, like the thought of owning a home seems a lot more real to them than my friends who are in college. And a lot of that has to do with, you know, like we're in bigger cities. Again, people have more debt, but yeah, I mean, you look at those prices of homes, I think the median home price in Anchorage is like $426,000 and just, you know, looking at that numbers like, how am I ever going to afford that? One of my friends, he's in the real estate program. He's got $40,000 saved up. He's got his Roth IRA maxed out. It's weird, because this is one of the points I want to make. So in my generation, you have people who have all these resources, you know, especially with the internet, and they're doing very well with it. They're taking it and they're running with it. And then you have the other part of my generation who's doing the buy now, pay later option. It's almost like a upside down bell curve or something like that. The people who are good are getting so much better, and the people who are making the bad decisions are getting so much more worse.

Keith Weinhold 21:25

Ah, the K shaped economy starts young.

Hunter Taddy 21:27

It's just interesting to see sometimes, because you have some people like, I can't afford this, I can't afford that, and it's like, yeah, being college student is hard. But then it's like, you buy your $6 coffee every day, and it's, you know, I'm guilty of that too. My spending habits aren't the best. And then you look at like home ownership inflation is real. Cost of living is getting higher. But also my dad talks about this a lot like our standards are getting so much higher, too great. Our houses are getting bigger. Kids don't share bedrooms anymore. All our kids have to have our phone. All our kids have to have the newest thing or the newest coat. And you know, you want nice things for your family. I get that, you know, I don't have a family, so I can only talk about this so much. But I mean, our standards are getting a lot, a lot higher as well. I mean, you look at our grandparents houses, and they're like, these, just small, one story houses, one bathroom. You know, I look at the house that my dad grew up and he shared a room with his brother until he graduated, right? And then you look at all these families kids live in their bedroom, it's so weird to me that like siblings, they know each other, but they don't know each other because they're sitting in their rooms all day and they're looking at their phones.

Keith Weinhold 22:31

You surface a good and salient point hunter that a lot of people don't bring up because the K shaped economy that means a widening disparity between the haves and the have nots, but the entire K also keeps moving up, so standards of living continue to get better for both the haves and the have nots, even though the disparity between them continues to widen, and yes, a poor person today has Wi Fi and has Air Conditioning and a lot of minor conveniences that poor people didn't have 75 years ago. You're listening to get rich education. We're doing something different this week, talking to the youngest guest in GRE history. His name's Hunter toddy. We're going to talk more when we come back about what he's learning in classes, economics and real estate classes, because that is one thing that college students do. Remember, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.

Keith Weinhold 23:24

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Keith Weinhold 24:00

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Robert Kiyosaki 25:12

this is our rich dad. Poor Dad. Author Robert Kiyosaki, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold don't quit your daydream

Keith Weinhold 25:26

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith winehill, we're talking with Gen Z and student athlete Hunter toddy. He's a sophomore college student, and he's got a management degree with a concentration in real estate investing. So yeah, Hunter, tell us some of the things that you've learned about in an economics class or two that you've taken there at UAA.

Hunter Taddy 25:51

So I had an economics class last semester, but the teacher is basically tenured, and he only posted YouTube videos and like three quizzes was like the entire grade. He made us great at 2000 wasn't gonna say and didn't even grade it. So I didn't learn anything about economics, but that was macro, and now I'm in micro. And this professor, he's fantastic. He talks to Anchorage and Alaska legislators all the time. He was on Meet the Press Like he's very, very, very, very smart and well spoken, one of my and professors, and he's also Yale educated, as I understand. Yeah, I always get crap from my cross country teammates because most of them are STEM majors. There's a lot of engineers, and then there's, you know, you have people who are in, like, kinesiology, and then a lot of aviation, but they always give me crap because, like, oh, business, it's supply and demand, blah, blah, blah. But then, like, legitimately, economics has been so fascinating for me, just like, you know, consumer behavior, opportunity cost, trade off. One of the things is rent control, right? Definitely a big conversation, especially in, like, my generation, you know, because of all these rising prices. And then, you know, the landlord always gets the negative connotation, right? Landlords are greedy. I wouldn't even as a college student. Well, you think about rent control is like as soon as you put that binding price ceiling on the rent prices in an area, that's why there's not enough housing on the West Coast. That's why landlords are painting over the light switches, or they're not fixing your toilet, or they're not fixing the leaky sink. There's just a lack of understanding general society about, like, just how markets work and why. You know, businesses make certain decisions that they do. That's one thing with, like, a lot of my generation, is a lot of them are almost anti business, in a sense, right? In a sense, but they love being consumers. What my dad talks about a lot is as the business owner, like when you work for a company, a lot of the times you can clock in, clock out, you go home and you lay your head on the pillow, and you don't have to worry about anything, right? But when you're the business owner, like my dad, and if you have a lot of anxiety, like he does, about certain things, and you stress a lot, you're up at 2am wondering if the LVP you put in someone's kitchen is going to buckle, well, then you're gonna have to go back and fix it all and all these things, and so I definitely have a lot more to say understanding for like business owners and like landlords. Yeah, the economics classes just broaden my understanding of how the world works. I think that's a class everyone should take, and it is a general ed but I think it's a class everyone should pay attention to as well.

Keith Weinhold 28:18

Sure, rent control gives landlords no incentive to make improvements to a property. So yeah, it's good that you're learning about this in econ class. Tell us about some of the other things that you've learned in economics or in your more real estate investor centric college courses.

Hunter Taddy 28:36

So I'll focus more on the real estate stuff. So Dean Widener, Widener apartment homes, one of the top five, I think, largest owners of apartment homes in terms of units like in the United States, right? He basically came to Anchorage, and he wanted to build the Widener program, basically like a farm for property managers, like, you know, give this education. And then they, you know, they come work for widener. They come work for, you know, whoever a lot of the education has to do with property management. So there's leasing, asset maintenance. Talk a lot about operating budgets, risk management. All students in the program memorize the cash flow performer by heart. So, you know, you have gross potential income loss to lease, vacancy, net revenue, other income, expense reimbursements. Maddie poo, which is maintenance, admin, taxes, insurance, payroll and utilities. Have you heard that acronym before? What is it? Yeah. Maddie poo, I pretty sure my professor, like, that's kind of like his thing. I didn't finish it all, but we have it all memorized, and then we do, like, a lot of fair housing and landlord tenant law. Yesterday, in my Real Estate Investment Finance course, we were analyzing loans, and we were making like amortization tables, yeah. And then so we were looking at like interest rates, how a balloon loan works, variable interest rates. I took real estate Maintenance and risk last semester, and that was really awesome. We got to visit buildings all across Anchorage and talk with the property managers, talk about maintenance systems, general maintenance of the property, property management, the day to day, things like that. And then leasing, we actually had us basically go undercover. We have to have three properties, and we go do a showing at all of them, and then we had to review them, and we did a presentation about them, and, like, we basically reviewed them and graded, like the leasing agent, and how they did that one was really cool.

Keith Weinhold 30:33

Okay, so the mock tenant, grading a leasing agent, yeah, then showing you amenities, explaining lease length, things like that,

Hunter Taddy 30:41

and then seeing if, you know, they violated any like Fair Housing things. He said, Don't necessarily try and bait them, but one of the questions that one of my classmates asked, so what kind of people live here? And then the good property manager, you know, it says we rent to anyone that fits our criteria. And then you have some people that's like, oh, you should have said that. Yeah, yeah, it's pretty touchy, age, race, family status, right? Yeah. So we definitely have that drilled in our heads as well, like landlord tenant law and then, like, fair housing, you

Keith Weinhold 31:11

told me something interesting when we got together, when you run the numbers for property, that the numbers always work better in one condition than they do in another.

Hunter Taddy 31:20

So we do cap rate. And so cap rate is noi over value, I believe, yep. So we analyze the cap rates for all the properties, and then we see what is our return if we pay cash or whatever is our return when we pay leverage. And sometimes it's better if you pay cash, or sometimes it's better if it's leveraged. But I always think even if you could pay cash, you pay, say, $3 million for the whole complex, well, you could put a $500,000 down payment on six other properties. So I always thought that was weird, because that's just, I read Rich Dad, Poor Dad, after my dad recommended it to me, and then it just talking to my dad about leveraged investments. Yeah, why don't you do that instead? Oh, he said,

Keith Weinhold 32:00

right, as long as you control your cash flow and pay the mortgage and the operating expenses. Yeah, we typically talk about getting the leverage here, because the appreciation grade has absolutely nothing to do with the amount of equity that's in the property. Is there anything else interesting that you learned from going out in the field and actually seeing some properties or talking to some managers? And I think this is really interesting, because a lot of times when people graduate college, they tend to broad brushstroke students or new graduates, and say, Yeah, but they haven't gotten out in the real world yet, but you actually are as a student.

Hunter Taddy 32:33

Yeah. So that's one thing I really love about our program, and I really love our professor. He owns properties himself. It's not like a pyramid scheme thing where, like, almost like, you're going to college to learn how to be a professor, and sometimes that we need those people for, like, research and stuff. But like, he's actually done the work. He knows what it's like. He can relate to things that we're talking about. Yeah, we get a lot of that real world experience, which is really awesome going about that, like the leasing experience. One of the things with, like, a lot of the managers, especially in Anchorage, because there's such a housing shortage, a lot of them didn't really like try, because they like, almost don't have to, because, I think a lot of them assume you're gonna lease someone anyways, no matter, because it's not necessarily really competitive. So because the vacancy rate is so small, yeah. So it's just like, here's the kitchen. You know, we're actually taught in leasing class, leasing strategies. And also, what's really good about our classes, we read, like, a lot of personal growth books in our classes. So like in our leasing class, our professor had us read The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People, Stephen Covey and yeah. And then I think for our real estate investment class, we're going to read the compounding effect. I don't know what it's about, but I mean, I really appreciate how our professor gives us, like, those books and that knowledge that's not just, you know, specific to real estate. It's like how to become like a better person, or how to become better at personal finance in general.

Keith Weinhold 33:58

All right, so some conceptual and some mindset stuff, along with more of the hands on and more of the numbers. Well, before I ask you, what's next for you, do you have any last thoughts with what you've learned in class, or just anything overall about your generation and lifestyle and getting along financially? For a college student,

Hunter Taddy 34:18

in April, I'm going down to Austin for the property con, which is Institute of real estate management, big conference. I think they have this one every year too. I think John Quinones, the guy from what would you do, is going to be like one of the keynote speakers. So looking forward to that, definitely looking forward to some of, like, learning more about, like AI, and how it's used in, like, the property management, like real estate sphere, and then I'm kind of interested in green building, because it almost seems to be like, Win win, right? Because better for the environment and then better for the investor most of the time, you know, like, through these retrofits, like you're just switching to LED light bulbs, we actually, we ran those numbers a lot in my.In its class. Like, you know, what would it be like if you switch from iridescent to LED light bulbs? And it's like, that's like, what are the things that all property managers should do? Because you're saving, sometimes 1000s of dollars and seven or 10 year period, or whatever it is, improve the cap rate, right there? Yeah, I want to definitely learn more about, like, the green building. And also, just because, you know, I'm a healthy person, when I build my house one day, I don't want to have, like, a lot of toxic materials and stuff as well. I have one friend. He's really, really dialed in his health. They're talked about him with you before, but he, like, he's not even have drywall in his house because there's some, like, toxic thing in drywall, or something, like, he's gonna build it out of brick and mud or something, I don't know.

Keith Weinhold 35:39

Oh, he can't just go live in any rental. Yeah, well, Hunter, this has been really good. Your dad owns rentals in Wisconsin, and like you mentioned, he's red, Rich Dad, Poor Dad himself. So that's kind of an influence on you. And you do have a management internship back in Wisconsin this summer. But before we go on, you mentioned to me that your dad owns a certain type of apartments in Wisconsin, and I've never heard of that type before. What are they called? And then, what does that mean?

Keith Weinhold 36:06

I think the name is local to the city itself in Manitowoc, Wisconsin. So they're called custerdales. I think there were homes built after World War Two, I believe, for like GIS and things like that so well. Just before he got in the Air Force, he was in Saudi Arabia for a year, and he was thinking about, you know, what am I going to do when I retire? Because he knew after the year was done, he was going to retire and come back to Wisconsin. And one of his friends got him into real estate, and he talked to my mom a little bit, and they just started buying properties. So that was in 2018 and now they own about 70 units, mostly duplexes, with their biggest being a five Plex. They also have a 18 bed assisted living facility. Most of the the 70 units are called custerdales. They're all like, cookie cutter, like, the same they're basically the same layout, you know, sometimes it's just flipped or whatever. And he basically did the same thing each time, a lot of them were, like, really run down ones that they purchased had someone with a chicken living on top of the refrigerator. And then when they locked the place up after they bought it, he broke back in and took stuff. And so they've really, actually, like, helped the community in a way, by remodeling a lot of these homes. And then my dad would refinance them, and then he would take that money and then invest it into another property. And he just kept doing that again and again and again. Yeah, so buy and hold we self manage, because there's not really a reputable property management service in the area. This is near Manitowoc, Wisconsin. Maybe you've heard that name before. Manitowoc, they make heavy construction equipment, and you are going back to Wisconsin this summer for a management related internship, yeah, well, Hunter, well, this has been great talking about what your generation's like, what you do in your classes, and the practical experience that you're already getting as a 19 year old. I mean, you're just substantially further ahead than I was as a geography degree student and major way back in the day, if anyone wants to reach out to you, see what you're doing, or contact you. What's the best way for them to do that? Hunter.

Hunter Taddy 38:09

So I don't have Instagram or Facebook, but I do have LinkedIn. So if you just search Hunter toddy again, T, A, D, D, y, on LinkedIn, you can find me there. Also just give my email. It's H hottie 007 at Gmail.

Keith Weinhold 38:26

All right, look that up if you want to reach out to Hunter. Yeah, it's been great having you here. Thanks so much for coming on to the show.

Hunter Taddy 38:32

Thanks forhaving me.

Keith Weinhold 38:40

Yeah, a fresh perspective from college student, Hunter toddy today. He has got his act together amazingly well for a teenager, and you know, talking to him made me think about something like I said when I graduated college, and it was just with a bachelor's degree. By the way, pretty humble bachelor's double major, geography and regional planning, I had that 20k in student loan debt, which I transferred onto 0% APR credit cards, over and over again and inflation adjusted terms, that might be 40k in today's dollars. I had no incentive to pay it down, let alone pay it off, since my finance charges were essentially zero, so that's why I probably carried that balance for close to 20 years. But this is the first time that I thought about the fact that that very habit was probably a benefit to me, not because it saved me from paying interest on student loans, but because it got me comfortable withholding debt for the long term and rationalizing that there would be an opportunity cost of paying off that debt, because a payoff would have meant that I would forego the opportunity of investing those dollars to get gains, that habit got me comfortable with prudently using debt and leverage as a real estate investor, and that helped me own and control more property sooner. So it was a somewhat autodidactic approach to good debt. Today, we talk with a young, likely soon to be investor, oppositely next week here on the show. We're talking about the book end, on the other side of the shelf, and that is when you're ready to retire from real estate, you can exchange your properties into a fund, pay zero capital gains tax or depreciation recapture. And unlike a 1031 exchange, what you've done is you have totally exited the direct real estate business with a 721, exchange, and you still get financial upside with zero management duties retired. Finally, if you've ever wanted to tell me what you think about the GRE podcast, if this show has given you some fresh perspective or helped you become a better investor. The best way to support the show is to leave a quick rating or review. It helps more investors discover the show. Here's how to do it inside the get rich education Show page on Apple podcasts, scroll about halfway down to ratings and reviews. Tap the purple stars to rate, and then tap the purple words write a review on Spotify from the get rich education podcast, tap the three dots near the top of the show page, tap rate podcast and leave your star rating. That's all it takes. It's crazy that this show has almost 6 million total listener downloads, but yet, across all platforms, we have perhaps only 1000 reviews, and that's probably because I rarely ask for them. I would greatly appreciate it. Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Unknown Speaker 41:59

Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively

Keith Weinhold 42:27

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com

Keith is joined by housing market intelligence authority Rick Sharga—a frequent guest on outlets like CNBC and Bloomberg who "quietly gets it right" rather than chasing clickbait crashes.

Together, they dig into whether America really has a housing shortage and how that lines up with what you're seeing in prices and inventory.

They explore why entry-level homes are so constrained and what that means for both investors and homebuyers.

They also examine how mortgage rates, builder behavior, and demographic shifts could shape housing demand and investment opportunities over the next several years.

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Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Keith, welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, does America really have a housing shortage? And if so, how long will it last? Those answers and more, with an expert guest and I today on get rich education.

Speaker 1 0:19

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Keith Weinhold 1:03

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com

Speaker 2 1:36

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:46

Welcome to GRE from Nantucket, Massachusetts to Pawtucket, Rhode Island and across 188 nations worldwide. America's favorite shaved mammal on a microphone has got his slack jawed act back on track for another wealth building week with you. I'm Keith Weinhold. This is get rich education. I'm still not wearing a pair of knockers, and I've returned here to bring you more value than your HOA dues. It's kind of crazy that America First put a man on the moon, and we're the first nation to put a man on the moon in 1969 and yet today, we have trouble housing our own people here on Earth. Shortly, we're going deep on does America really have a housing shortage first? Sometimes real estate investors can learn lessons from the stock market about the future direction of housing prices and demand and just simply what assets people have demand for, how AI is disrupting some stock sectors. Has been rather germane lately. One CEO made this perfect example. It's about how two different stocks travel search engine Expedia and Delta Airlines, those two stocks were once closely tied together. Their share prices used to be correlated, but they've gone in separate directions. See, Expedia offers you a service that can be replicated by bots, but delta has actual planes that take you somewhere, and it's hard for AI to replace that. This is why there's been a recent push toward more tangible stocks and tangible assets, a divergence, an attraction to assets that give you a share of either a tangible good, or, in the case of something like an airline, a service that's directly tied to something tangible. And similarly, commodities like gold, silver and copper cannot be replaced by AI. Neither can real estate. There is a growing sense to own things that can't be disrupted, dematerialized and demonetized by AI, like so much software can. In fact, as overall stock market valuations are lofty. You know, some people have become rather wary of an AI speculative bubble that perceptive to this demand. Just a few weeks ago, Goldman Sachs introduced an everything but AI index, yeah, where you can invest in a basket of companies that are sheltered from Ai disruption, this everything but AI index that's attracting investors. In fact, there's another trend that interfaces with real estate that just launched recently too today, you can wager on future homes. Prices through the platform, poly market, yes, place bets for profit or loss on the future direction of the median home price. In fact, one recent college graduate joked, I was born too late to afford a house, and born just in time to gamble on people who can buy a house? Yeah, you're probably familiar with poly market by now. It's the prediction market that lets you speculate on things like elections and Fed rate decisions and various geopolitical events and other real world outcomes. Well, they have launched a set of real estate markets that allow users to bet on future home values. The way it works is that you can wager on future home values in New York, Los Angeles, Miami, San Francisco and Austin, Texas, as well as US national home values. So that's six different markets. Now I haven't gambled on Poly market, I had checked it at times to get an idea of where people really think markets are headed or what's going to happen next. Because, rather than major media, where sometimes as a hype machine, they create headlines that scare you in order to try to get clicks, well, instead of all that, regular people are placing their money on polymarket, and you can look at what that action is like, because that can be a more reliable harbinger of future price direction at last check with a national median home price of about 420k with the numbers, poly market is using one month from now, 66% of people think that home prices will rise. And it's more nuanced than that. You can bet on just what price range you believe home prices will fall into one month from now. And this is nothing that I recommend wagering on, but besides an interesting trend, yeah, you can get that idea of where real people actually believe markets are headed. As we're about to talk to national housing expert Rick sharga on whether or not we really have a housing shortage, we've got new data about the level of housing permits. Of course, housing permits are a gage of the level of future housing inventory, because after a permit is issued, it's typically six to 12 months until a single family home is built. But I'll share that with you near the end of the show, because it makes sense to cover this with you in chronological order. We'll discuss housing supply first, and then I'll tell you about the future supply direction based on housing permits. Now, you know from the inception of this show in 2014 I talked about the why of real estate investing before the how with anything in life, it's only when you truly know why you're doing something that you'll profoundly care about the how and you'll want to do it well. In fact, when I do an in person real estate presentation, one of the modules that I teach most often is simply called Why real estate. The biggest Why is not altruistic, although that matters, and that's part of it. But instead it's that real estate pays five ways. That's the biggest why any GRE devotee knows that the five ways are simultaneously paid, are appreciation, cash flow, ROA tax benefits, and not inflation hedging. But specifically inflation profiting. Yet I have found multi decade real estate investors that don't understand this, the most valuable hour that you can spend is knowing all the ways that you're paid and seeing and believing how your total rate of return of 20% 30% or even 40% is not far fetched or risky, but it's actually common and even estimated conservatively. If you're initiated on this, you already know, but if you aren't, it can sound a little hard to believe what I just said right there, I recently reshot the entire real estate pays five ways video course, and it's the most valuable hour of investing video content that you're likely ever to see. It's premium, masterclass level content. I'm just giving it away for free because people need to know this. And actually, on the newest shoot, I've condensed it down into just 40 minutes of content across the five videos, one instructional video for each of the five ways you're paid. The videos average eight minutes. So that's about 40 minutes total, and they build on. Each other. So at the end of each one, you get to see your cumulative rate of return. It just keeps adding up, and you know exactly where all of the numbers come from. That's why it's more conducive to video form than audio form. I know that many of you have seen it, but if not, it is foundational, and I cannot recommend it enough. It's free and available to you now. At get richeducation.com/course, get that now, while it's on your mind. At get rich education.com/course, more next, I'm Keith Weinhold, this is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 10:39

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Keith Weinhold 11:16

You know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program. When you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products, they've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom, family investments.com/gre, or send a text. Now it's 1-937-795-8989 Yep. Text their freedom coach directly. Again, 1-937-795-8989,

Kathy Fettke 12:27

this is the real wealth network's Kathy betke, and you are listening to the always valuable get rich education with Keith Weinhold. You

Keith Weinhold 12:46

Is America really short millions of homes? If so, that doesn't mean every market is undersupplied, and prices can only go up because of it. If there's a housing shortage, why are prices falling in some cities? So the shortage? Is that something that's real, or is it just misunderstood, and you're gonna learn what it means to you? I'm get rich education's Keith Weinhold along with an intelligence authority today that usually gets it right. In fact, I found an old clip of him on Bloomberg where he suggested home prices bottoming in 2011 and as it turns out, they sure did today, together, we're answering the question, does America really have a housing shortage? And my guest has often appeared in major media, CNBC, Fox NPR. He's the founder of the CJ Patrick company. Hey, welcome back to the show. Rick sharga,

Rick Sharga 13:39

good to see you again. Keith, thanks for inviting me.

Keith Weinhold 13:41

You know, it's funny. Four years ago, Rick and I found each other, and we sort of checked each other out. I found him to be an authority that just doesn't go on saying this bombastic and absurd stuff just to get attention. Instead, he quietly gets it right, and when he knew I had a real estate YouTube channel, similarly, I resonated, because I'm not one of these people that's constantly saying that housing prices are going to crash just to get views and then those crash. People never follow up when they're wrong, and they've been wrong for about 14 years now. But Rick, rather than prices, we're here to understand if there's really a housing shortage today, most agencies believe we have a shortage. Moody's will tell you 2 million. Zillow, four to 5 million. Congressional Republicans have gone on to say 20 million. I sure don't know about that. And then yet, Rick sometimes at the same time, you do see these conflicting stats, where it says that sellers outnumber buyers today, which sort of flies in the face of a housing shortage. So what is your take amidst all this?

Rick Sharga 14:46

Well, Keith, I think what we're seeing is a fairly obvious example that if you torture data enough, you can make it say anything in the right you wanted to say. And there is a lot of confusion about how much. A housing shortage we really do have. It's not like we have 20% of the population unable to find anywhere to live. Most people still prefer to live indoors, and they've been able to do so, but the fact of the matter is that all of the math suggests that we are underserved in terms of the number of housing units available across the country, and we can go through some of the math. The big question, of course, is, how many houses are we short? How many housing units are we short? And the reason the numbers are all over the place, and as you suggested, let's set aside the Republican estimate of 20 million, because there's, there's certainly something political going on there, but the estimates range from around a million to as high as five or 6 million. And the reality is all of those estimates are counting something different. Some are counting housing growth versus population growth. Some are counting vacancy rates compared to historic levels, some are counting inventory available for sale today versus inventory available to sale in prior years. So each of these organizations, and they're all pretty reliable organizations, Moody's is certainly good. Zillow's research team is top notch. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac the National Association of Realtors. None of these people are hiring dime store economists. They're all good folks, but they're all measuring something slightly different, which is why these numbers come out all over the place, and the one of the fundamental challenges is trying to figure out housing shortages compared to what, or compared to when. All of these estimates assume that there was some point in history when we had exactly the right number of housing units to suit the needs of the population. So they start with some point in time, and I think if you did enough research, you find they all start at slightly different points in time, and then kind of work their way forward from that and come to very different conclusions, again, based on where they started and where they ended up, and what they count. The one thing I would push back on a little bit from some of your comments in the intro is that I am highly, highly skeptical, extraordinarily skeptical of the reports that talk about how many more sellers we have than buyers, because that makes some wild assumptions about the number of people that are actually interested in buying a house. And I've never seen any research methodology that's really nailed that number accurately. Because nobody knows if you're thinking about buying a house right now, until you go to an open house until you do a search on on Zillow, or realtor.com or homes.com until you actually are applying for a loan or making a deposit. So the notion of being able to mind read three 40 million Americans to figure out how many of them are interested in buying, I think, is a neat trick, but I do think it's at least in part one of those methods that people use to get a lot of clicks to their website

Keith Weinhold 18:05

right? This whole thing of and I think when we talk about sellers versus buyers, that's shorthand. What we really mean are, there are some stats out there that show that prospective sellers outnumber prospective buyers, in some cases, which, yeah, I think I agree with you there. I doubt that as well. And yeah, of course, I think you're getting on some of the nuance here. We're trying to predict how some people would behave. For example, how much pent up demand is there when we're talking about sellers versus buyers, and we're talking about a shortage, for example, say, the 28 year old living with their parents that could move out and afford to buy a home if mortgage rates hit 5% like for example, how do you count that? Or, how would you even know to

Rick Sharga 18:53

it's a valid point. Keith, and I think that fundamentally, is my question. With that particular report, you really can't count that person. We do have some metrics that we follow, and it's funny, you mentioned that 5% mortgage, because as we record this, mortgages have broken that 6% threshold for the first time in a number of years. And just about every kind of mortgage you could buy right now is below 6% so that's a good thing. And every time we've gotten close to that 6% mark. In recent years, since mortgage rates doubled back in 2022 we've seen a huge influx of people applying for purchase loans, for those mortgage loans to buy a house, those numbers are up somewhere between 13 and 15% year over year right now, and that's before we've really had these mortgage rates dip below 6% so to me, that suggests there really is pent up demand out there, and I judge that just based on what I see in terms of a number of people actively applying for a loan.

Keith Weinhold 19:54

Yeah, there's a lot of nuance here. HUD tells us that we have more. Homeless people than we've ever had in this nation. So that's sort of an extreme affordability problem. To your point earlier about how most people want to live indoors, and I'm sure not making light of homelessness. It's a sad situation, but we're always going to have homeless people regardless of whether we have excess housing or a housing shortage. We have about 146 million housing units in the United States. The census shows and suggests that 8 million of those 146 million are housing units where people have doubled up and are sharing space with non relatives. That's one way to think about the level of pent up demand within the shortage,

Rick Sharga 20:44

I don't know if that's a result of shortage necessarily, or if that's a result of having the weakest affordability for people looking to buy homes that we've had in over 40 years. The last time affordability was as bad was the 1980s and the reason affordability was bad back then was because mortgage rates were at 1819, 20% and it made it very difficult for people to afford homes. But we're coming out of a very unusual cycle, and this is a little bit off topic from our inventory question, but it's the only time in US history when two conditions have hit the housing market back to back, if you go back to covid, coming out of covid, we saw home prices go up nationally by over 50% in about 18 months. It was a huge, huge, unprecedented increase. Yeah, and right on the heels of that, as inflation started to get out of control, the Federal Reserve had to take pretty extreme measures to get that back down. So they started playing with the Fed funds rate, and we saw mortgage rates double in 2022 in the history of the country, according to Freddie Mac we've never seen mortgage rates double in a calendar year. And in 2022 They not only doubled in a calendar year, they doubled in the space of a few weeks. So we're coming out of a period where home prices went up by over 50% and then mortgage rates doubled, and it just crushed affordability. So the people that have been looking to buy a $400,000 house suddenly realized they could only afford a $200,000 house, and there were none of those around. It's really why home sales have gone down as rapidly as they had volume of sales. In 2021 we sold 6 million existing homes. In 2022 it dropped to 5 million. And for the last three years, we've been sitting at around about 4 million annual sales of existing homes. And again, that doesn't suggest a lack of inventory, a lack of homes, because there are fewer people buying, and there's more properties staying on the market longer. But the underlying numbers, the underlying metrics we would look at, are where we can start to kind of deduce that there aren't enough homes. For example, you mentioned that there are about 146 million housing units across the country. Most recent census data I have from the end of 2024 says it's about 140 748, 40 748 million. So it's up just slightly from your number. That represents a growth of about 6.7% in housing units between 2010 and 2024 during the same period of time, the population went from about 309 million to about 340 1 million, and that represents a growth rate of about 7.4% so if everything else stayed equal, your population grew at a faster rate than your housing units did. And that suggests that even if the number of housing units was ideal back in 2000 it's somewhere less than ideal by the time we got to the end of last year,

Keith Weinhold 23:42

we're talking with Rick sharga. He's the founder and owner of the housing market intelligence firm, the CJ Patrick company. We're answering the question, does America really have a housing shortage? We're getting a yes there. And before we're done, we're going to talk about, how long could the shortage persist? But Rick, you spoke to affordability, and I think that has a lot to do with the nuances within the shortage, and that brings up shortages within the luxury tier versus shortages in the entry tier. And the entry tier is really what a lot of our listeners and viewers are interested in, because we're used to buying those as rental properties. So can you tell us about that?

Rick Sharga 24:23

It's a great point, Keith. And what we've been talking about so far is kind of a structural shortage in the overall number of housing units that could be purchased, could be owner occupied, could be rented. And one of the culprits there, and I will answer your question, I promise, one of the culprits there is that builders simply haven't built that much. If you look at the long term average, like 2025 years, the average number of housing starts was somewhere between 1.3 and 1.4 million a year coming out of the Great Recession in 2010 so you look at that last 15 year period or so, 12. Of those years, they've started less homes than that long term average. So builders simply haven't been keeping pace, not only with population growth, but also with just the ability to create enough homes in general, to offset the number of homes that are obsoleted every year, that get bulldozed every year. So there is a structural shortage. To your point, if you look at inventory available for sale, we are up about 9% year over year, but we're still down about 15% from where we were prior to the pandemic. So there are fewer homes for sale than there were back when the market was functioning more efficiently. The most drastic shortage is at the entry level builders simply have not been making a lot of entry level properties. There's a reason for that. There's some independent research out there, including some research from Fannie Mae that suggests that the pre construction cost a builder has to absorb before they break ground is over $100,000 across the country, on average, higher than that, where I'm calling you from today, in California, it's about 120,000 there. If your table stakes are 100,000 $120,000 it's really difficult to make a profit on an entry level property. So the builders, I think understandably, have been focusing on higher dollar, higher value properties and not replenishing that supply that we need for first time buyers and the kind of properties that real estate investors tend to like. The other problem we've had, Keith, is that when those mortgage rates doubled, the people who had purchased those entry level homes refinanced into a two and a half 3% mortgage and are now sitting on a $300,000 property, let's say or $250,000 property with a two and a half percent mortgage. And if they wanted to trade up, they'd be trading up to a four or $500,000 house with a 6% mortgage. And they simply can't afford to do that. So the combination of entry level owners staying put at much larger numbers and builders creating new entry level homes at much smaller numbers has really created kind of a crisis of inventory at the entry level segment of the housing market.

Keith Weinhold 27:18

Yeah, when we talk about that crisis of inventory in what's available. I'm not talking about shortage numbers now. I'm talking about the active listing count. This means more or less available homes to buy. This includes single family homes and condos. We have an active listing count of around 1 million today. The historic average is around 2.2 million, and that peaked near 4 million during the global financial crisis. So today, only about one quarter as many active listings, available homes as at the peak,

Rick Sharga 27:54

yeah, only about half as many as, let's call it a normal market, and that's one of the reasons. I think the first time you and I spoke on your podcast, we were talking about all the online snake oil salesmen who were predicting a home price crash. But that's one of the reasons why home prices haven't crashed, and why they've kind of continued to grow, at least at a modest pace, and in some cases now are starting to decline a little bit. But that lack of inventory on the market. When you don't have enough inventory to meet demand, or just barely enough to meet demand, that means that seller doesn't really have to negotiate all that much. That means that buyers are kind of at a disadvantage, and so as long as that's the case, you'll see home price stability. That doesn't mean that every market is going to see prices go up. But if you look across the country right now, if you look at markets where home prices are down even marginally year over year, you're looking at the Gulf Coast states, you're looking at some other southern markets, Las Vegas, Phoenix, you're looking at some outlying markets like Boise, Florida, certainly, and Texas. And those are markets where inventory is actually considerably higher than it was a year ago, and in some cases, considerably higher than it was back in 2019, if you look at markets where prices are still going up a lot, Midwest, Northeast, those are still markets where there's not enough inventory to meet demand. So that relationship between available inventory for sale and demand is really what drives pricing

Keith Weinhold 29:23

this whole discussion, which is really about the supply, just in the economics one on one. Adam Smith of supply versus demand. A lot of people, just like including my dad, when I was telling him about housing, something he doesn't follow. And I told him that prices are up the most in the Northeast and Midwest. That surprised him. He was like, No, well, population growth is lower here and lower than Pennsylvania, where he lives. And that's when I brought up, well, they're under building there. So in parsing this by geography, Rick, I think another way that we can do it is parsing the housing shortage by the single family homes versus apartments, because it's. Pretty well documented that nationally, apartments could be seen as overbuilt, and single family is under built. Do you have any details with respect to that?

Rick Sharga 30:08

We talk a little bit about that, and quick shout out to both of our home state, Pennsylvania, yeah, Phil, Philadelphia actually had some of the highest annual price increases right in their home sales last year. But part of that isn't just because they haven't been building a lot in Philadelphia or the suburbs. It's because we see people moving from higher priced markets into lower priced markets. So we have people actually commuting to New York who have bought homes in Philadelphia or the Philadelphia area. They can get much more house for their money there. They're not subject to some of the wage taxes that happen in New York State. They just get on that Amtrak and train into the city every day. So there is some of that going on across the country too, as we still see net migration of people moving out of states like California, New York and Illinois into nearby states where the cost of living is much lower. That slowed down since covid, since a lot of companies have been requiring people to come work back at the office. But it is still happening. It is still happening in generally the same direction you raise the issue of inventory for rental units versus inventory for, let's say, owner occupied properties, we have seen a plateau in the number of single family rental homes. So the stuff you're hearing out of DC, that you're seeing the media about the really important ban on institutional investor buying is really much more sizzle than substance. Oh, right. Institutional investors are owned and are buying a fraction, but we've seen over a million apartment units come online in the last 18 months. It's about the largest number of apartments that have that have sprung up and in that shorter period of time on record. And we've gotten to a point where in some markets, there's actually a little bit of an oversupply of those apartment units now that will balance itself out over the next couple of years, because multifamily building starts are way down too so we're not seeing a lot of activity there as builders hold off, waiting for this new inventory to get absorbed. But to put it in perspective, vacancy rates went from near zero back during covid in those apartments to over 6% last year. Rental rates have gone down from 15% year over year, increases back in 2020, 2021, to negative numbers nationally in the last year, just talking apartments, just apartments. So we have a short term mini glut, if you will, of apartments. It will be absorbed rapidly. We have 92 million people between the ages of 26 and 54 who are have either formed households or are about to a lot of them would like to be homebuyers can't afford today's prices, so they're renting instead. And about 5 million people a year are turning 35 which is when, you know, we parents start literally kicking them out of the house. So I think that rental overage will resolve itself, really, in the next 12 to 18 months. And if the builders don't start building new inventory by that point, we'll wind up with another shortage on the housing front, I'm of the opinion that we're at least a million homes short compared to what demand should be. I think the number is probably somewhere between one and 2 million. And again, I'm doing that simply based on a slight decrease in vacancy rates, population growth and the aging of the population. What could throw all of our numbers off? Keith is one of the X factors in demographics and population, which is immigration. Population growth, if it's organic, if it's by birth, does have an effect on housing, to an extent, but it's it's more nuanced, and it takes longer to really show itself if you're dealing with adult immigrants coming into the country, particularly immigrants who are coming in for jobs and have income that they can spend on housing, your housing demand goes up quickly, and that can have some local market repercussions depending on where the immigrants are going.

Keith Weinhold 34:18

In Philadelphia is not a coastal city. Its cost of housing is surprisingly low to a lot of people, but it's not on a coast. Just look at a map. Well, Rick, as we're winding down here, how long could the housing shortage persist overall?

Rick Sharga 34:33

I think we're in a period of time right now where builders are reluctant to overbuild. They got caught in the great recession with about a 13 month supply of homes available for sale, and then as home prices crashed, they were competing with their own inventory from the prior year, and many of them took a real beating financially during that period of time. So I don't expect we'll see builders overbuild anytime soon. And that tells me that we're probably looking at at least another three to five years before we can have a rational conversation about housing numbers kind of leveling off to be where they should be. We mentioned immigration. That is an X factor that could extend the housing shortage. If we start to see more immigration coming into the country, it could mean that we don't need as many houses as I suspect, if we have fewer people coming into the country. And the other x factor here is the boomers, the baby boomers of any generational cohort, probably have the highest home ownership rates right now and ultimately will age out of their properties. They've stayed there longer than any prior generation has, and that's also contributed to the inventory shortage, as opposed to the housing shortage. But as a friend of mine said, and it's a little macabre, but as he says, boomers will eventually leave their homes, either vertically or horizontally, so that will bring some inventory back to the market as well

Keith Weinhold 35:58

housing supply. It is rather inelastic, and we're probably going to be in this shortage for a number of years. Well, Rick, tell us how and why people consult with you and then just how they can do that.

Rick Sharga 36:12

Yeah, I work with mostly companies that are in the real estate or mortgage industries. Keith, I typically prepare a lot of market intelligence reports to them. It's real estate data, economic data, mortgage data. For some clients, I do foreclosure reports. They know what's going on in terms of delinquencies and defaults. For others, I do research on investor purchase activity, what they're buying, what they're selling, what they're paying, where they're doing all this. So anything that's data related to real estate data, mortgage data, economic data, I'm kind of neck deep in and I'm very easy to find on either LinkedIn or x. So if anybody's listening today and wants to connect on those platforms, just reach out and tell me you saw me on the GRE podcast, and I'll know you're legit.

Keith Weinhold 36:56

Housing supply is coming up short, but Rick never does. It's been great having you back on the show.

Rick Sharga 37:02

We'll do it again soon, Keith, It's great talking to you.

Keith Weinhold 37:10

Do we really have a housing shortage? The answer is yes, and the number of units short is one to 2 million. The shortage is worst in the entry level home segment, which matters so much to us as investors, we are owning an asset that's going to have sustainable demand for quite a while into the future. Rick indicated that it could take perhaps three to five years just to get back into balance. Now, we recently learned that there were fewer housing permits issued last year than there were in any year since 2019 and housing permits are an indicator of the future home supply. They had their recent peak five years ago with 1.7 5 million, and last year, there were just about 1.4 million. So home permits issued are 19% lower today than they were back in 2021 this is a harbinger of supply, because from the time that a permit is issued, it takes six to 12 months to complete a single family home. It's about six months to build a tract home, and closer to 12 months for a custom home. For apartments, it can take in excess of 24 months to deliver that period of time from permitting to completion. So nationally, we should continue to see scarce supply in the one to four unit space, keeping upward pressure on prices again for the most valuable 40 minutes of educational real estate investing material around you can access my premium real estate pays five ways, master class of five videos, totally free. And you know how I operate. I don't try to upsell you to some paid course. Either. It's just truly free. I'll send it to you. You can access it at get rich education.com/course coming up on future episodes here on the get rich education podcast, we're about to go on a run. The next stretch of GRE is loaded. We've got fresh topics with some game changing monolog content that I'm going to share with you new guests, distinguished guests. Next week, the youngest guest to ever appear on the show is going to be with us. He's a 19 year old college student with a real estate investing related major. How does he see Gen Z's financial world? Is there any hope at all? The following week, we're going to break down an innovative way to sell properties that could completely change how you think about your exit strategy when it's all done, when it's time for you to retire from real estate, rather than a 1031, Exchange, which would just keep you in the real estate game and with more of it, do a seven. 21 exchange into a real estate fund. Have no more assets to manage, no more property managers to manage total capital gains tax deferral and still get financial upside. And then just four weeks from now, it's get rich education podcast episode number 600 debt is the American dream. So if you're serious about building wealth, be sure to follow or subscribe to the show. If you've already done that, I would really appreciate it if you told a friend about this show until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 3 40:39

Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 40:58

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com

Keith breaks down where the U.S. housing market appears to be headed and which regions and states are quietly winning or losing in the population shuffle since 2020—and what that could mean for real estate investors.

You'll also hear about an intriguing cash-flow play in single-family rentals in select Southern markets.

Then, Keith is joined by financial strategist and comedian Garrett Gunderson, who challenges the usual "scrimp and save" advice. Together, they explore how to build real wealth without sacrificing your life today, how high-net-worth individuals often get money wrong, and a different way to think about financial independence, freedom, and investing in yourself.

Resources:

Get Garrett Gunderson's Killing Sacred Cows audiobook free: DM @GarrettBGunderson on Instagram with the words "Keith Cows."

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Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, is the future direction of the housing market trending up or trending down? Which states have seen the most population growth? Then powerful wealth mindset tactics with a financial comedian today on get rich education

Speaker 1 0:20

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads and 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and keep top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Keith Weinhold 1:04

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally. While it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com

Speaker 2 1:38

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:54

Welcome to GRE from Mount Rainier to Mount Rushmore and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education. I am not a Lambo driving influencer that will take any brand deal just to shill a gambling platform instead. Our core strategy at GRE is aging. Well, I've spoken with a lot of LP investors with capital calls and deals that lost all their money. Well, we approach wealth building with discipline and consistency. It doesn't sound dazzling, but it really shines when things go wrong elsewhere, because at least for the core of our portfolios, we get long term fixed rate debt for income property get paid five ways and win the inflation triple crown, and we do it all with a high degree of passivity. Right before I took the mic today, I got a two sentence email from a property manager that said an air conditioning unit's air handler board had to be replaced for $420 I don't even know what an air handler board really is. Now, the manager sent some photos in a written estimate. I quickly checked chat GPT, and I saw that the price was about right, and replied to my manager to go ahead and have that done. That's it an example of relative passivity. US residential real estate has nominally appreciated over every single 10 year period in modern history, despite some occasional short term downturns, even those are not common. Well, we recently had a guest mention that it's 20 years at the longest like 20 years or less is the period of time between which real estate never goes down. He was right. But you actually can't find any 10 year period where home values fell. What about the 2008 global financial crisis, I think that's the first place that the mind goes. Well back then, home values bottomed out at 208k in 2009 before they started growing again. And 10 years before that, the median price it was 157k in 1999 so even when home values hit their GFC low at that point, they were still up 32% from the previous 10 years. So you can confidently say then that over any 10 year period, home prices are up nationally. Now, how about the future? Well, for the future, there is more evidence of rising home prices. Building permits for new homes have fallen to their lowest level since 2019 that's according to the census bureau. So fewer single family homes are being built. Now we plan to discuss that more on. Next week show when we dive deep on does America really have a housing shortage? But this week, more reasons for future home price bullishness is that the labor market now, it's not doing that great. It sure isn't white hot, but unemployment, which was already low, that recently dropped a touch lower to just 4.3% inflation has fallen to 2.4% and wages are rising faster than that. In fact, our own Fed Chair recently remarked at how he's surprised at the strength of the economy. The property market analytics firm kotality, they now expect home prices to appreciate another four and a half percent this year. They and other firms continue to believe that the Midwest will be the hottest area of home price growth even more than that four and a half percent in that region. That is because not only is the Midwest underbuilt, it's that the prices are so affordable that it's attracting young people. The other factor is that mortgage rates recently dipped just below six into the high fives again, and that can release this pent up housing demand, and think about where we've come from. In late 2023 mortgage rates were about 8% and now lower mortgage rates also reduce the lock in effect, so it can create both more sellers and more buyers. The thing to remember is that 70% to 80% of home sellers are also home buyers because they've got to live somewhere. And first time homebuyers, of course, they buy only, they don't sell anything. In fact, former GRE guest in housing wire lead analyst Logan modeshami and Barry Habib were just positing on this at housing wire's latest summit on how the volume of home sales has been depressed for so long that lower rates could very well trigger a rush of buyers, these kind of people that have been delaying purchasing for years, this pent up housing demand being released if indeed rates go lower. People think they know the future, but we don't really know that that's going to happen for sure. But a lot of optimism about this phase of the housing market supported by not great, but decent economic conditions. Of course, that new housing demand is going to manifest unevenly across the nation. So let's talk about the places that have seen the most population growth from 2020 to today, basically the states that support that housing demand. Well, between 2020 and today, the US has grown by about 10 million people. That's over 3% nearly every state grew. But the bigger story is where that growth is happening. And really, here's the jaw dropper as a region, the South, gained more people than all of the other regions combined, about 7.6 million new residents in the south since 2020 the South's population is up 6% the West's almost 2% the Midwest population is up more than 1% and The Northeast up seven tenths of 1% again, this is not per year. This is total population growth from 2020 to today, Florida and Texas, they led the nation among the big states, both up almost 9% sprinting like they just found out that income tax is optional. The Carolinas in Tennessee are big southern growers too. People clearly keep moving toward warmer weather, a lower cost of living, lower taxes and job markets. Nothing new there. California in New York are the biggest losers in absolute numbers, California losing half of 1% of population in New York, a full 1% people keep moving away from these traditionally expensive, high tax coastal states like a buffet when the crab legs run out, people just getting up and leaving. That's not any sort of news story there, either. These trends help cash flow residential real estate investors like us, because the south aligns with that favorable landlord tenant law and those high ratios of rent income to purchase price. Luckily for us, that's where people are moving too. The Midwest has those phenomena as well, although their growth has been slower.

Keith Weinhold 9:39

Now a few Midwest highlights for you. Since 2020 the population of Indiana is up 2.8% quietly benefiting from Illinois. Escape Velocity, Missouri up almost 2% and that's growing mostly in Kansas City and St Louis suburbs. Ohio at almost 1% that's pretty modest growth overall, but Columbus up 5% that is flexing like it just landed a semiconductor plant there in Columbus, the intermountain west has bicep bulging growth, but it rarely works for us, because rents are only a little higher, but property prices are way higher. Yes, those pretty Rocky Mountain states, great Instagram, tough cash flow now Louisiana, it is a state that confounds people. It's a warm place, and it has a low cost of living, you would think Louisiana would be attracting people in droves for those reasons. Well, then why is its population following Louisiana down nine tenths of 1% since 2020 Well, you've got bleak job prospects that make Louisianans leave its tax competitiveness ranks 31st property insurance costs are high thanks to environmental risk. Louisiana has more swamps than beaches. Even the NFL saints were six and 11, and if they had made the playoffs, that wouldn't have made people move back. And hey, no personal shade here, I enjoy going to the New Orleans investment conference in Cajun culture, in Airboat Tours through the alligator filled Bayou, fun stuff, but for income producing property, you got to seek out different characteristics than just vacation Glee or how Good the gumbo tastes keep emotion separate from investing, Hawaii is America's biggest percentage loser. Its population is down one and a half percent since 2020 its cost of living is stratospherically high, with a median home value of just a little over a million dollars. That results in net outmigration to the mainland parts of the Aloha state now experience natural decrease. That means that deaths exceed births. Natural decrease. That's mostly a phenomenon on the Big Island. That's not where Honolulu is. That's where you have Kona and Hilo when young people can't afford to stay demographic gravity kicks in population loss. Hawaii is also highly dependent on tourism, meaning more volatility in recessions. It has contractor availability issues and higher repair costs, partly due to shipping materials to the remote islands. What about the upsides of Hawaiian real estate? Well, you're just going to have this inherent, strong, long term land scarcity and lifestyle desirability overall. Hawaii isn't bad. It's just hard. And I like Hawaii as a place to vacation, so the best times in my life were in Hawaii. Now, with all this said, These are broad generalities about states which are big places themselves right now. There are certainly Missouri real estate investors listening to me that are actually losing, and Hawaii real estate investors that are winning, and even cash flow positive. I'm talking general trends here, and this is with respect to long term rentals, not short term rentals. If your rent to price ratio is as low as point three or point four, like it often is near the coasts, well then you are speculating on appreciation. That's what that means. All 50 states have opportunity. All 50 states have no go zones. People keep moving south. That's a trend that the pandemic accelerated six years ago. More opportunity is concentrated there. That's got nothing to do with vacation excitement. That is population math, and I'm talking about swimming with the tide here in our Don't quit your Daydream newsletter I recently sent you that colorful population change map that I was describing some of there. More recently, I also emailed you that great and rare map of landlord friendly versus tenant friendly states mapped out and a lot of other great stuff.

Keith Weinhold 14:17

Before we bring in our firebrand guest, Garrett Gunderson, I just learned about a really strong opportunity for a provider of single family rentals and duplexes in Memphis and Little Rock. They're providing a locked in 5% interest rate and 5% property management for five years. Yeah, that's not a throwback to 2020 it's what mid south homebuyers calls their triple five program. They are the oldest and most trusted, maybe turnkey investment provider in the country, operating since 2002 and what they do is they offer these fully renovated, occupied rental properties in Memphis and Little Rock, two of the strongest cash flow markets in the South. With financing and management and rates that make the math work like it hasn't in years. So again, 5% interest, 5% property management fees for a full five years. You know those markets, they already had these investor advantage numbers with rent to price ratios mere point eight in Memphis and Little Rock. But yeah, that low 5% mortgage rate, even for renovated properties, not just new build. That's the kind of spread that turns a good deal into a great one. So to give you an idea, if you get a 30 year fixed rate mortgage loan amount of 125k with a 7% mortgage rate, your principal and interest payment is 832, at a 5% rate, it's just 671, so that's $160 more cash flow right there, and it's made a tad sweetener than that with just a 5% Property Management rate. And I don't know how long that offer is going to last, but it is available now and for the next little while, you can ask about it. When you visit mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid southhomebuyers.com and you can ask them about their triple five program. More next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Episode 595, of get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 16:19

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Dani-Lynn Robison 18:08

this is freedom family investments. Co founder, Danny Lynn Robinson, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream. You Brenda.

Keith Weinhold 18:24

Today's guest is someone that America knows as the long haired, bearded money guy in the past, he's drawn physical appearance comparisons to Jesus Christ. He's a prominent financial strategist. Founded an eight figure company, hit the Inc 500 he's both a New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestselling author. He is just an electric speaker, including appearances in front of dozens of billionaires. And he's just got this great way of speaking to financial freedom that hits you differently. He even has a comedy special that's great to welcome back to the show. Garrett Gunderson,

Garrett Gunderson 19:02

that's good to be back. Man. Is really good. Love your energy. Has a nice intro.

Keith Weinhold 19:07

Well, you give a lot of like, nice guidance to people that's somewhat different than they're used to hearing. You know, Garrett, I think a lot of the conventional guidance is, you know, it's not very far above Elementary School advice like, put your credit card in the freezer so you don't use it too often, but a lot of times you speak to either business owners or people that have already had some success, and I think a lot of your underlying mantra is, hey, you better live your best life now

Garrett Gunderson 19:35

I kind of feel like you are your greatest asset, and if you starve out that asset because you don't feed it with knowledge, or you don't invest in yourself, or you don't gain the skills that really matter because you're so addicted to scrimping and sacrificing and building your balance sheet right, trying to build savings accounts and retirement plans and doing all you can to pay off that mortgage. Yeah, you could become a millionaire on paper. But will you live like one? Will you enjoy your. Life. What about all the memories that you miss along the way? What about having quality of life today and creating a life you don't want to retire from? The wealthy people, they didn't get that way because they shrunk their way there. They didn't get that way because they were amazing budgeters. They built businesses. They created value. They learned how to, you know, sell or speak or market or have business acumen that grow business or to hire people, and having those systems that actually impact more people or more deeply impact the people that they serve, because it's about value creation and their value creators. And I think this notion of just thinking, Oh, I could just trade time for money and set money aside. Man, that's a really painful way to get to a million dollars, but Northwestern Mutual, they just put out an article that said, 32 or 34% of millionaires don't feel wealthy, because if you have money tied up in an account that isn't kicking off cash flow, it doesn't feel like wealth. You can't spend that net worth. It's just a statement if you don't learn how to create cash flow. And I love financial independence, where people have cash flow from assets to cover their expenses now their lifestyle is covered from that cash flow. Now they can reinvest every active dollar into themselves and their quality of life, into more cash flowing assets, into taking trips along the way, not just waiting until they're too old to enjoy it.

Keith Weinhold 21:13

You work with business owners all the time, and you've even worked with some ultra high net worth people that still seemed to scrimp and save. Do you think really, what is that the function of? Is it more of the wrong mindset or the wrong tactics when someone acts that way?

Garrett Gunderson 21:32

It's a mindset that's really kind of handed down to them? Yeah, maybe from their parents or grandparents or from a different era, like there's people that were, you know, in the Great Depression, that then tells stories to their family about how tough it was, and you never know when that money could go away. So you got to hold tight, and it's a scarcity mindset. So one of the wealthiest clients I ever had, I mean, this was a guy who he was worth a lot of money, but you would never know it. I saw him on TV one day. I was like, Dude, he needs new clothes, and we found a strategy to save him a bunch of money. He was just buying his inventory with cash or like, let's buy it on a plum card, and you'll get cash back. I just said, Just take 10% of that cash back, which was over $100,000 a month, and spend it on yourself. He's like, Well, I wouldn't know to spend it on I'm like, Well, how about some new clothes to start with? He's like, Okay. And then the next month, he bought a nest system for his house. The next month he bought a sound system. Eventually, saved up enough money to buy a Tesla, which he really wanted, like it was money that was there for him, but it changed his entire paradigm, because now he had a quality of life. He was very philanthropic and donated money. He built massive businesses, but he never treated himself well. He'd never felt like it was okay to spend that money because of his upbringing, because the way that his parents viewed money and the way that their parents viewed money, and it was always something that felt scarce. So it felt like, okay, will this go away? And the reality was, we just found money in your couch cushions, essentially. So why not enjoy it along the way? He eventually bought a home that he loved on the water, that he loves the garden. I mean, it was like a total transformation with that one simple thing to help him heal his relationship with money, overcome scarcity, because he was already highly productive. He just had to break free from this budgetary mindset.

Keith Weinhold 23:09

That's great. It was almost like, Dude, I can see it in you. Before we even talk. You got that code off the rack at Burlington. I swear you can do better than this. Come on, now

Garrett Gunderson 23:17

30 years ago, 30 years ago too. You know, it doesn't even fit anymore.

Keith Weinhold 23:23

Well, you know, I recently dedicated a complete episode Garrett to the way I put it is that the risk of delayed gratification is denied gratification. Now, there are some good things to be said for delayed gratification, I think, especially when you're younger, or you're just starting out in the working world, and you just tried to cover rent for your apartment and you don't have much else. Delaying some gratification is good. You need to form capital. You need to get liquid. I try to avoid saying stacking savings, because that gets people in the mindset of becoming super savers sometimes, and they miss out on returns. But what I mean about the risk of delayed gratification, being denied gratification, if it's taken too great of an extent, is, you know, I'm talking about the guy where, when he was 24 he used to say, Oh, I'm going to visit the Galapagos Islands someday. That's what I want to do. But you can just tell by the time you talk to the dude, when he's 48 he begins to use the past tense for things he wanted to do, for example, then he might start saying, Oh, well, I guess I never did visit the Galapagos Islands. You know, you can tell with people when they use the past tense, and that's when you know that their future is not bigger than their past, and a lot of that is the reflection of their financial status.

Garrett Gunderson 24:40

I got married at age 23 and the first two years, well, it was really like the first year and a half, maybe I was just such a miser. I gave my wife a $400 a month budget for an apartment, and we found out that there's places you don't want to live in Utah. I didn't know it, but she's like, is this what you want? And I was like, This doesn't feel like a safe neighborhood. And then you. Know, I was like, All right, maybe $600 I was still kind of really scarce. And my parents were like, Why don't you just live in our basement, rent free, and my wife's like, sex free. If you think that's where we're living, I'm gonna live in my parents basement, you know? Because I just thought money was something to save. So I saved me over 50% of my income. And a lot of people were like, that's amazing. Congratulations. Great job. And so I felt really good about it, and then I realized that my business wasn't growing as fast as this other person my age. I met him at an event, and a year later, he was doing better. And I was like, Dude, what's going on? I could hear it in your voice. I could hear like, you're just a different person. He goes, Oh, I'm doing two things. One, I just hired this guy, Steve D'Annunzio, and he changed my entire life. And I was like, I need to meet him. He's like, he happens to be here in Vegas. He's from Rochester. Introduced me. I hired him as my coach right away. I'm hearing all these people talk about strategic coach at the same event, and they had a booth. So I signed up for Strategic Coach, which meant I had to part with some of my money. Think it was $7,500 I hired Steve as a one on one mentor, and all of a sudden I was investing in myself, yeah. And I broke free from those chains of like, reduction and restriction into the game of production. And then I even had a situation where a woman called me out at the same event. This was a life changing event where she's like, I wonder what it's like living in a financial prison you built for your wife. It's like, Oh, see, that's what happened. I thought I was responsible, and building that responsibility that's actually building walls. And when I came home for that event, my wife and I started looking for our home. Within a few months, we found one. I bought a home. It was very easily within my means. I basically made as much as I paid for this house that we loved. We lived there for nine years. We built so many memories. You know, we had our two kids while we were there, I started host study groups, and that year, I grew my income by $170,000 with the coaching of strategic coach, Steve dnunzio And this woman, Nancy, calling me out. The next year, it grew by even more because the skills started to compound. I decided from that moment forward, I would spend at least $40,000 a year, which I might be able to reach for some people, but at least $40,000 a year on mentors. Is a guy named Alan. He writes my meal plans and my workouts, and I'm at 10% body fat because he knows exactly what they do. I do what he says. It was worth this $10,000 investment, because now I pay attention what I pay for, and I look at like if I'm my greatest asset, how can I create more energy? How can I create more value? How can I feel better about myself? How can I show up the very best version of I am, so I can deliver the most to the other people. And so I've always just been in amazing groups. I just got back from two different events in Beverly Hills around amazing people, learning incredible things that allow me to grow. I haven't spent a huge amount of money on a mentor last year to figure out something that I hadn't been able to figure out to this point. It's the same thing I did to become a speaker, to become a writer or even learn how to sell or market, you've got to invest in the skill, not just in the savings account. You grow yourself first, and then you grow your money. If you starve yourself out because you're in that miserly mindset, you're going to stunt your growth and never be fully fulfilled.

Keith Weinhold 27:56

You're your own best investment. And yes, this stuff is the varying definition of investing in yourself. Don't live below your means. Grow your means and all of that.

Garrett Gunderson 28:05

Grow your means and be more efficient within your means. I mean, the best way I know how to save is not overpay on tax, which 98% of business owners are doing that today. You know, don't overpay on interest, because you either restructure your loans, renegotiate your interest rates, reallocate underpouring funds to pay it off, or you remove investment drag. A lot of people have unnecessary fees and hidden commissions that drag on their investments. Or just design your insurance properly so it's more efficient. Those four i's, IRS, interest, investments and insurance show you how to keep more of what you make, take some of that money, build up your foundation so you have a peace of mind fund, so you have staying power, at least six months of liquidity and then invest more into yourself or learn how to create cash flow. This is the game the wealthy play. But the poor middle class, they think it's about paying off a mortgage and funding the retirement plan, and they will argue about it until it's too late, when they get there and now their homes paid off, but the property taxes are higher than their mortgage was 20 years ago, you know. Or they have home maintenance they have to take care of, or inflation has destroyed the value. Like if someone were to put away 100 grand and they wait for 30 years if they got 10% which the market did the last 30 years, if you reinvest dividends, they're going to have right around $1.7 million but if they have to pay 2% in fees, fiduciary fees, 12 b1 fees, which are marketing fees for the fund expense ratio, you know, the fees of maybe a retirement plan, and they now have 2% fees. It only goes to 1.1 million. Huge difference. And that 1.1 million if we account for inflation, even if we said inflation was low, like 2.7% over that 30 years. Well, by the time we pay for inflation and tax, guess what? The purchasing power value is like, 300 grand $300,000 that's a problem, and it's because they didn't learn to create cash flow. It's because they didn't learn to invest in themselves. It's because they relied completely on a market they don't control. I'm not saying the market is completely something to avoid. I'm saying we go in sequence. How do you grow your income for. First, then how do you keep more of the income you make with? You know, financial savvy and plugging leaks. Then learn to grow your money, but maybe growing your money. For some I like to think of like three dimensional assets, like real estate's three dimensional. It can grow in equity, it can create cash flow, and it has tax advantages. But my business is three dimensional, the more my business creates cash flow, without me, the more equity it has, and that business has major tax advantages. So most people are one dimensional, pay off a loan, put a money in retirement account. That's the poor, middle class. Wealthy people build a system where they've got three dimensional assets, equity, cash flow and tax savings. And that is a complete game changer, because then they can employ the buy borrowed I strategy, if you have assets like, you know, an individual stock, or if you have assets, like a piece of real estate or a business, you could borrow against it. There's no tax on that five for life, right? You keep refinancing. Or you can even do charitable trust to avoid the taxes upon the sell of those paying no tax when there's gains. Or you can pass it on to the next generation with a step up in basis, which means they get it at the full value and not have to pay the difference. And if you have life insurance, the life insurance will pay back the loan that tax free as well. So buy, borrow, die. I mean, it's a completely different thought process of defer taxes. If you defer taxes, I get it. You could do a Roth IRA or Roth 401. K Sure, that'll let you put after tax money in and grow it. But where's the cash flow? What's the underlying investment? How does it help you create financial independence? How does it help you does it help you grow your skills to become a better investor? We've been taught to be lazy, not that people are lazy. We've just been taught to be lazy with our money. We've been fed a narrative. I don't have the time, I don't have the skill, I don't have the interest, but I want to have it, so I just hand it over. And who do we hand it over to Keith Wall Street. Wall would you trust Wall Street? Like you flew to Frankfurt not long ago. Would you get on Wall Street airlines where they're like, hey, sometimes our planes go up, sometimes they go down. That would brand, and he'd feel inspired, right? Would you go to Wall Street, you know, hospital? Or like, hey, he lost one of your kidneys, and by loss, we stole it and resold it. You know, like, Wall Street doesn't have a brand. That's good. It's boiler room. It's Wolf of Wall Street. It's the movie Wall Street with Michael Douglas. You know, greed is good like yet that's what people put their money into. And you can go to any downtown and any major city, and guess who has the biggest buildings, insurance companies, banks and Wall Street investment companies. So you're taking the size of your home and shrinking it to build up their building and put money in their pocket. And their story is, it's because they're Ivy League, they're smart. They try to make it complicated, but you don't have to know most of the things you think you need to know about finance. The foundational things are important, how to protect your assets, how to design insurance, to transfer risk, how to have some liquidity, how to automate your savings. And then you focus like Warren Buffett would teach. He said, You know how people would become a better investor if they only had 20 investments they could make over their lifetime? He says, I don't diversify because I'm in the know. He's like, I'm a good businessman, therefore I'm a good investor and I'm a good investor because I'm a good businessman. I don't separate the two. Yeah, most people think he's a stock market investor. No, he buys out the companies in the stock market. Rarely does he have minority stakes in it. He does have some of that, maybe with Coca Cola and apple, but he bought a lot of companies outright, whether it was Geico, whether it was See's Candies, whether it was like he buys these companies, he's so far outperformed the stock market by billions of dollars from an index fund like what he has, versus someone that put the same money in an index fund, Warren has billions more from his investments than the person that put all their money in the index fund, even if it was the same amount. It's completely about strategy, not about luck.

Keith Weinhold 33:30

Yeah, it's the Andrew Carnegie, put all your eggs in one basket and then watch your basket. Yeah? Watch that basket like a hawk. Totally. Yeah. I mean, stacks mutual funds, they have what I call those five simultaneous drags. If you think you're getting a 10% long term return over time, subtract out inflation, emotion, taxes, fees and volatility. What do you have left? Not much. But there's no friction there. It is just the easiest thing to do ever since decades ago, 401 K contributions begin to become automated throughout your paycheck, sometimes even automatically, automated

Garrett Gunderson 34:04

values your permission opt out. It's easy. You have to opt out, right? It's Big Brother. You don't know what's best for you. And by the way, how crazy are four one K's. Part of the reason the market has gone up in value is because people consistently fund for one case, whether the market's going up or down, they're told $8 cost average. So that's artificially fueling the market. When we see the numbers, there's a buffet index, and it's like 2.9 times higher than what he's comfortable with, with the stock market, because of how overinflated the market is, partially due to inflation, partially because people put money in. But let's remember, why did 401, K's even come about? Because pensions failed. And by the way, these pensions failed and they had world class money managers managing these multi billion dollar pensions, but they didn't know about something called disinvesting, or didn't know enough about it. When the market goes down and pension money is owed, they still have to pull money out of the pension to pay the employee which disinvests, which pulls more money out of the account. So now instead of just being 10% down, they might be 17% down. And so even if the market comes back 10% it's 10% of only 83% of the money. So not even back to square one. And if it goes down a second year in a row, they're in real trouble. It starts to chip away at the principal, and they can't recover. And that happened to pensions, and they said, Oh, here, we can't handle these. We're going bankrupt. We're going to get rid of pensions. You take care of it. Well, guess what? Vanguard says, the average balance in a 401, k right now is $148,000 how someone's supposed to live on $148,000 even if you could get 10% that's $14,800 a year taxable, that's not going to do it. Even if you have a million dollars, where are you going to put the million dollars to get the return without risking it going down? Maybe you're going to be in treasuries at 5% that's $50,000 taxable per year. You're a millionaire on paper, but living poorly. That's why I'm here to call these things out. I think that my book Killing Sacred Cows, which was my original New York Times bestseller, which is probably how we met. Yeah, I rewrote it. I rewrote it, rereleased it in 2024 and I'll give people the audiobook. They just have to DM me on Instagram. Garrett B Gunderson and DM the word cows with Keith's name, cows and Keith or Keith and cows. I'll hook you up with the book for free, so you can learn about the nine financial myths. We're talking about some of them here, but there's also some comedy in there, so they can laugh after each chapter. I threw some comedy in there. You know, if you like my comedy, I'm not the funniest comedian. I'm just the funniest money comedian. That's the reality.

Keith Weinhold 36:33

When we had the very inventor of the 401 k plan, Ted benna, come onto the show, he revealed to us that when 401 K plans rolled out, they were first called salary reduction plans. They had to scrap that name in order to foster participation. But reducing your salary is still principally what it does to you. You got to think about it that way and blow up some of these myths. But Garrett, you've already given a lot of great technical information about what someone can do, how someone can think differently. Bigger pictures, we're sort of winding down here. You know, when I'm thinking about this whole delayed versus denied gratification thing, how do you meter it out right throughout your life? I mean, what's your earmark your family legacy? How do you meter it out, right so you don't have too much or too little at the end of your life?

Garrett Gunderson 37:15

I like to see this strategy of, like, what would the rockfellers do that I wrote about is, you know, the beginning before that strategy is you pay yourself first, which has always been around Richest Man in Babylon. Tons of books talk about it. My argument is you want to pay yourself at least 15% of your personal income, off the top, to a separate account. Once you get six months in that account, now you start to invest that money, but you build your stability with that peace of mind. And we want 15% because the luxury once enjoyed becomes a necessity. So you want more money in the future, not the future, not less propensity to you know, there's also, just like planned obsolescence, things break down. You have to repair them. Technological change, we're buying new technology that doesn't even exist. I have now subscriptions to a bunch of AI things that help me out, right? But I'm spending more money. There's also taxes, those could go up in the future, or 38 trillion in debt as we film this, which is a crazy number. And there's also inflation. If we give 3% to each of those five factors, that's 15% now again, use the four i's, IRS, interest, investments and insurance to find that money, not just budgeting. But then here's the magic. At least 3% of your income should go to a separate account called the Living wealthy account. That's your guilt free spending, value based spending account, so you enjoy some money along the way. These are the things that are the finer things in life that people might say are wasteful. You know, there's a book called unreasonable hospitality that talks about this, 11 Madison Avenue was the number one rated restaurant in the world. And, you know, will who wrote the book talked about they had 3% of their budget to just go wild on their customers dream making money, right? So to create the special experience in the restaurant, and even the bear, I think was season three, showed some of that process of how they do that. So I highly recommend taking a certain percentage. You get to enjoy along the way. It could be higher than 3% but start there, and you're going to feel better, you're going to have different energy, you're going to show up in a different way. And then from there, I just believe in having trust, so that your money's outside of your estate, and protecting financial predators so you own nothing but control everything. And I personally use life insurance. I use just standard over, you know, like basically properly structured, optimally funded whole life, so that death benefit will come in after I die. It allows me to spend more of my money and then have it replenished so I can enjoy more of my money along the way, because I know that death benefit will be there for my wife or even for my family trust after I'm gone, so I don't disinherit the people that I love.

Keith Weinhold 39:31

Garrett Gunderson, he can take you through these steps, which he calls financially fit, to financially independent, and then finally to financially free. Tell us a little more about that going through those steps.

Garrett Gunderson 39:44

So financial fitness means your financial house is in order. You've got everything handled properly, car insurance, homeowners, liability, disability, medical life insurance, your corporate structures as a business owner, how you pay yourself, your taxes the last three years and move. Moving forward your investments. It's like, you know what it's going on. You've improved your cash flow, and you're dialed in. You're as safe as you could possibly be. Then financial independence is, how can we create income, especially from a business that comes in when you don't, that's people, that's processes, that's technology, so that you can be involved, but you don't have to be involved. This is the part most people miss, yeah, and I think it's crazy. A lot of people have this notion they're just going to work so hard so they can sell their business one day, I'm like, What about just creating a business that you love so much you don't want to sell it? What about giving up the things that are burning you out and have the employees that can take care of that so you do the things that you love and then just enjoy life along the way, take some little trips, take some time off and come back in. The business grows up when you're away, they learn how to do things without you, and then you can still create value into that business. I sold the business in 2021 and really regretted it, because I kind of was so removed from the business. I kind of felt like it lost its soul and I didn't feel connected to it. So this time around, I started a business in July of 2024 I'm like, I'm only going to work with the P with the people I love, building things that I love, and I'm not going to let myself get burned out by doing too much. We're going to take two weeks in Hawaii coming up here in April, just enjoy some time together as a family. We do quarterly family retreats with my wife and kids. We do traditions with my family up at my cabin, like I want to have this great life where it's blurs the lines between work and play. I have a little quote from someone else that talks about that art of life is blurring the lines between work and play, but also just having complete play sometimes that there is no work. So I come back refreshed, relaxed, rejuvenated and ready to create. And so really, that financial independence gives you permission to swing for the fences and what you do, knowing your foundation is handled, knowing that your lifestyle is covered, from assets to create cash flow gives you work optional freedom. But instead of retiring, think, what could your biggest impact be like? Create the life you don't want to retire from. Create a vision so compelling you can dedicate your life to it and find that the win is actually in the work, not just the outcome. I think that is the elegance of we win when we play, and when we have more play in our life. We don't try to escape from something. And when you start something, you might have to do things you hate, but you can eventually delegate it, and then life becomes great. I mean, one of my early coaches, Dan Sullivan, who I mentioned, a strategic coach. He's in his 80s, still behemoth of creating value in the in the market. To listen to him, you know, he's phenomenal. He's made such a huge difference in my life, and he has no intent of retiring. He just gets smarter every year, adds more value, builds more infrastructure, and he's the one that taught me the merit of free days, just taking time off, taking time away. So, yeah, that's financial independence. Is cash flow, and then financial freedom is a state of mind. It's when money is no longer the primary reason or excuse you would do or not do something. It's a consideration, but it's no longer the consideration means that you have a healthy relationship with money. Money is an asset and an ally, not an enemy. You don't come from a place of scarcity. You come from a place of abundance. You can be more present with your family and doing what you do without feeling distracted. I think wealth is our ability to be present, not necessarily how much money we have in a bank account. I think we have a good amount of money in a bank account, and we can be present. That is like true wealth.

Keith Weinhold 43:12

It harkens back to the John D Rockefeller, he who works all day has no time to make money. Rockefeller would have said, you can architect a wealth plan if your head is down on the assembly line, that means gradually move your offer. It's from trading your time for dollars over to owning assets that pay you to own them. Garrett's comedy special is called the American Ream. There's no D in that word, R, E, A, M. You can look that up, Garrett. It's been enlightening as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.

Garrett Gunderson 43:43

Hey man, good to be back.

Keith Weinhold 43:51

Always. A lively conversation with Garrett, besides some great mindset perspective, he's really good at saving you tax and setting you up with asset protection. Though he's not as real estateish as me, he's pretty savvy. For example, He's aligned on the fact that, for example, say you have an 80k debt. Well, it doesn't necessarily mean that it makes sense for you to pay that off sometimes it does, but what happens to your net worth anytime you pay off an 80k debt, well, let's see. You've reduced your asset side by 80k and you've reduced your debt side by 80k so your net worth is the same, and retiring the debt means that you might have lost leverage, lost cash flow and lost tax advantages, all at the same time on Instagram, send a DM with the two words, Keith Cows to Garrett B Gunderson, and he'll hook you up with his book for free next week on the show, we go deep on does America really have a housing shortage with an expert analyst. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 4 45:01

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively

Keith Weinhold 45:29

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth. Building, get richeducation.com

Keith digs into what's really going on with apartments now that values in many markets have dropped 20–40%. You'll hear why larger multifamily properties have been hit so much harder than one-to-four unit rentals, and what that means for both current owners and new buyers.

"The Apartment King," Brad Sumrok, joins the conversation to share how recent economic shifts, financing structures, and market forces have reshaped the apartment landscape—and why he believes we may be near a key turning point in the cycle.

You'll also learn how investors are approaching deals differently today, what makes certain markets and property types more attractive right now.

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For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text 1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach

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Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold us. Apartment Building values have fallen 2030, even, 40% over the past few years. Investors lost millions. What are all the reasons that it happened? And when will apartments turn around? I'm joined by the apartment king today on get rich education.

Corey Coates 0:26

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold, writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Keith Weinhold 1:09

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com you

Corey Coates 1:40

you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:59

Welcome to GRE from Monterrey, California to Monterrey, Mexico and across 188 nations worldwide. America's favorite shaved mammal on a microphone has got his slack. John, act back on track for another wealth building week with you. I'm Keith Weinhold. This is get rich education, and I'm still not wearing a pair of Dockers. We all know that the one to four unit space single family homes, up to four plexes have held under their values despite soured affordability, but five plus unit apartment buildings are a drastically different story. We're going to talk about just how much value they've lost recently, and the reasons why it's about more than just the interest rates doubling and tripling that began in 2022 Today's guest is an apartment educator. His students have had both losses and wins over time. I'll ask about both, because adversity is where you get the lessons now today, you might buy an apartment building at a steep discount compared to what it sold for five years ago. And who might you buy an apartment from today, it might not be the type of seller that you're thinking about because of owners defaulting you might now be buying it from a bank that had to basically repossess it. Yeah, you might try to buy it from a lender at 60% of the loan amount. Well, a lender doesn't want to do a 40% write down, so they're going to try to get more and see. That's how this could practically look today for an apartment owner that survived the crisis and is still standing today. They're asking themselves, now, why would I sell at a discount if I don't have to? So they're probably going to try to hold on. And then, of course, the tenants in these apartments don't know that any of this is going on now. I own a lot of single family rental homes myself, also apartment buildings in the one to one and a half million dollar range is where I've played, and often that ends up being eight to 12 units, because in that space, I don't need partners to invest in assets of that size. One to $2 million is also small enough so that you're not competing with institutional money and other players. Today, I'll tell you what I did with some of those buildings myself when interest rates reset about four years ago, and before you and I wrap up the show today, I've got something to tell you about what's coming in future. GRE episodes here stuff that's really unexpected as the apartment King waits in the wings. One last thing to tell you about, like I mentioned to you recently, investors say that they want an opportunity, but what they really want is certainty. Once certainty arrives, the opportunity. Is gone.

Keith Weinhold 5:01

Our GRE live event last Thursday was a success. It is about how central Florida is the most compelling housing market right now, with the builder offering rate buy downs as low as 3.75% and, you know, I just ran the numbers on something, and I can hardly believe this. All right, right. Now owner occupied mortgage rates are near 6% this means investment property rates are almost 7% with the rate by down to 4% here's how your cash flow looks with a 30 year fixed rate mortgage on a 300k loan with a 7% rate, your p and i payment is 1996 at a 4% rate. It's just 1432, this is a reduction of $564 per month, a whopping payment difference. That's really the difference between treading water and stacking cash flow on these brand new build properties that we're talking about here in Central Florida. So talking about opportunity and certainty, that is a big measure of both. Yeah, before I ran the numbers, I didn't realize that the spread was this wide. With high demand for these properties, the builder does have some more available, a long term fixed rate of around 4% it should be up for you now you can see the limited time replay of GRE, freshest live event at grewebinars.com, in case you want to look into This again, grewebinars.com let's discuss the apartment market. Foreign apartment building values have fallen at 20% 30% even 40% over the past few years, depending on the market that they're in today, we're going to learn how bad it is, why it happened, and if that actually creates an opportunity here in the late 2020s, decade, our guest is known as the apartment king. He is the number one nationally known educator and mentor for apartment investing. He started with a bang in 2002 by making his first ever real estate investment, not a four Plex like I did, but a 32 unit apartment building, and he's now owned and invested in over 11,000 units and over 1 billion in assets under management. He's received awards like the naa independent owner of the year, and he's the star of the massively popular in person events that he puts on, which you'll learn about soon. Hey, it's been several years. Welcome back to the show. Brad sumrock,

Brad Sumrok 7:46

hey, Keith. It's really good to be on again. Nice to be here.

Keith Weinhold 7:50

Brad and I were together in person last month, and we also talked physical fitness. Then Brad is one of the fittest guys you'll ever meet in person. He just looks fantastic. We want to hear about your apartment forecast shortly. Brad, let's talk about the hard stuff. First, you've endured adversity since we last had you here several years ago. Tell us about that.

Brad Sumrok 8:14

Well, look, I mean, I think anyone that's been serious about investing in apartments over the last five years. And I'll also say it this way, anyone who did a deal and say 21 the middle of 21 till probably the end of 2022 it's very likely that that property is worth less today than than it was when we bought it. So that, in itself, has created, you know, adversity, because I got into the business in 2002 and the market went up until 2008 and we went through a downturn in 2008 nine and 10, as is, I'm sure you're aware. And then the market went up again until around 2021, mid year. And then, due to so many reasons, and I could go into those reasons, but let me just just cut to the chase. That you alluded to is we had another downturn, and so the downturn, you know, impacts property values, it impacts confidence, it impacts investor appetite to do deals. It impacts just about everything related to the business, on the investment side, and the other business that I'm in, which is the seminars, the events and the mentoring. So it's been a big downturn, and we could go into those, you know, into the reasons why, and I'm sure you'd like to know my take on that. But now is a great time, because things are recovering, and one of the things Tony Robbins teaches Keith is pattern recognition. It's like I've been through two downturns, and I could see the patterns, and it occurs to me that we're at or near the bottom of a cycle. So like it's also a good time to be gearing up.

Keith Weinhold 9:50

Now, many realize but for those uninitiated on this, the one to four unit space really didn't feel much pain starting in 2022 so much of that is time. Two people get long term fixed interest rate debt on the one to four unit property, but it's shorter term debt on five plus unit apartment buildings. So when interest rates went up, people soon had to pay those higher rates. They were underwater. That's really the genesis of so much of the apartment building pain.

Brad Sumrok 10:19

Well, and I would say, look, it was, I'm going to throw a bunch of things at you here. So we had the pandemic, right? And during the pandemic, people got paid to stay home from work, right? The government printed, what, $5 trillion worth of money, right? And so that kicked off what became a period of, like, very high inflation. And you know, the published number was 9% but I think a lot of people experience certain items that were a lot more than 9% like, for example, for sure, in 2022 when we bought a 286 unit property, you know, we were able to replace all the appliances inside of a unit in The kitchen, you know, for $1,800 and even today it's like $3,200 so that's a little bit more than 9% and so we had that. So we had the printing of money, we had inflation, we had variable rate debt. Why did people do variable rate debt? The first thing I'll say is there is a place for variable rate debt. But what happened in 2021 and 2022 is the fixed rate lenders, which are typically the government sponsored agencies Fannie and Freddie. They were still lending money, but because of their criteria for lending, if you would go with one of those loans, you would get like 50% leverage the shorter term lenders that would give you the three year loans, you can still get like 75 to 80% leverage. So the vast amount of people that were buying anything in 2021 and 2022 I mean, I'm not just talking about myself. I'm talking about people with 2030, 4050, 70,000 doors all over the country, they were buying with short term debt. And historically, short term debt performs at or better than long term debt. I mean, think about it, when you get a long term, 10 year fixed rate loan and multifamily you have prepayment penalties. You know, when the market's constantly going up like it did, from 2012 to 2022 you could get that fixed term loan. You could pay it off early, you could pay the seven figure prepayment penalty, and you could still make lots and lots of money, and that's what people were doing. So when you bake in the prepayment penalties on long term debt, you know short term debt is oftentimes the better option. Well, nobody saw the Fed raising rate 16 times in 12 months. And look, I don't care what anybody says, Nobody predicted it. If they had predicted it, they would be probably the richest person in the world right now, right nobody saw a comment like, there may have been some people that said, hey, yeah, this is going to happen, or this is going to happen. But what actually happened with the Fed rates over a very short period of time was unprecedented. Unprecedented means it never happened before. So it's not something you could anticipate or something anyone can model. Okay? And so what that did is most of us had what's called an interest rate cap, which is an insurance policy that if the rates go up too much, that yours is capped. But the problem with those rate caps is they're only good for like, two years, right? So we're buying these deals in 2021 and we're getting short term debt, which is a three year debt. And in two years, in 2023 the rate cap expires, and now the rates are 9% instead of 3% and when we bought the deal, the rate cap insurance was $40,000 and now it's a million dollars. And so you're in a very awkward, unfriendly financial situation. And it wasn't just that. So it wasn't just inflation, it wasn't just interest rates. And many of us sung belt markets, specifically Texas and Florida, which historically have been some of the best markets to invest in, because of migration and no taxes, and then landlord and business friendly environments. Well, these states also suffered a lot of named storms, with, you know, hurricanes and wind storms and hail storms and so in these markets, at the same time, we had rising rates. At the same time, we had massive inflation. Now we also have insurance rates doubling or even tripling in some occasions. And then the final thing was, during the pandemic, a lot of the multifamily projects that were in the middle of being built, these development projects, they all slowed down. People couldn't work. And so back in 2020, or after we're fully recovered from the pandemic, some of these markets, like Nashville and Austin and Dallas and Houston and Phoenix, they got deluged Keith with new supply coming on, like a disproportionate amount of new supply. So there's like five. Five things that contributed to multifamily being really tough in the last few years. And so it wasn't just people with short term debt that had challenges. It was probably just about anybody that bought a deal within an 18 month timeframe that I outlined before that just really experienced challenges, and some of those people are still in deals, right? And so let's just take a deal that's, you know, a $10 million deal with a $7 million loan. Well, that deal right now might be only worth 7 million, yeah, and that's the opportunity. So the owner that has that deal may get punched in the face, so to speak, you know, by the market, and they may lose their equity in that deal, but the borrower coming in, or the buyer coming in, like one of my mentees right now, had a deal that was listed at 11 million, and he's picking it up for seven, which is, like, at or below the current loan value. So one buyer group's loss is the new buyer group's opportunity, if that makes sense

Keith Weinhold 16:03

right? 100% there's nothing unusual at all about the mortgage rate levels that began to go higher about four years ago. The unusual part, and Brad has touched on it, is the rate of increase, with mortgage rates doubling or tripling in a short period of time, within about a year or so, but yeah, it's a great point. It's about more than the mortgage rates. It's about increasing insurance costs and increasing expenses of all types, like you talked about with the appliances there, and then, even if you were able to weather all that as an apartment building owner, with all of the supply coming on to the market, when supply exceeds demand, we know what happens to price, and we also know that you can't raise rents very much with all of this supply coming on the market, but the supply of new apartment buildings, that inflow, that wave, is beginning to die down, because builders got the memo quite a while ago that they need to stop building at such a fast pace in places like Florida and Texas and you know, Brad, there are a lot of asset classes that have been beaten up lately. We can always point to a few. You can look at Bitcoin or nfts or even commercial office space. Now those assets might bounce back, but they don't have to, because no human needs those things. But I expect apartments to bounce back because having a place to live is a primordial Maslow and human need. It's almost inevitable. In fact, shelter is at the base of Maslow's hierarchy of needs. So a bounce back has almost got to happen. Yeah.

Brad Sumrok 17:46

Look, it's becoming the big word right now in politics. Right is affordability. And so when you look at affordability, if you take a median priced home in this country of say, $400,000 I don't know if that's the actual median, but maybe it's around 400 420,000 100, $420,000 yes, to buy that home. And who's going to buy a $420,000 home? It's going to be a working class family making 60 to 70,000 a year, right? They could rent a median priced apartment unit for $1,800 a month, or they could pay a 20% or a 10% down payment on a $400,000 homes, and they need 40 to 80,000 down right, or maybe less, but they still need a down payment and that p i, t i, the principal, interest, tax and insurance is going to be around $3,100 okay, so there's a $1,300 per month gap, and that's a big, big gap for that working class family. And so where are they going to live? Like we're becoming more and more of a renter nation? Keith, and the statistics that I read say that only 27% of American families can even qualify to get a mortgage, yeah, on a $400,000 home. So we're becoming more and more and more of a nation of renters by necessity. And so the demographics like look, all markets are not equal. You got to know what's going on in your market. But there are markets, ie locations, geographies that have even a higher affordability gap. You know, some markets have a 2000 a month or a $2,500 a month affordability gap. So you're going to find more and more people renting in these markets.

Keith Weinhold 19:37

Yes, there is a premium to ownership opening up that gap, and that's why we have this wave of renters that's really already begun. In about the last year, the American homeownership rate has fallen from 66% to 65% 1% doesn't sound like much, but that already means that we have 1.3 million new renters. We're going to talk to Brad some more, including about. His apartment market forecast you're listening to get rich education. Our guest is apartment King. Brad sumrock, more when we come back, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold,

Keith Weinhold 20:09

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Keith Weinhold 20:45

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Hal Elrod 21:58

this is Hal Elrod, author of The Miracle Morning, and listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 22:13

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. We're talking about a sector we have not talked about very much lately because it's been in rather moribund condition, but we are beginning to turn the corner where there are more opportunities in apartment building investing, because it's been beaten down an awful lot. And Brad, that plays right in to your apartment forecast. So tell us about some of the highlights of your apartment forecast.

Brad Sumrok 22:38

Yeah, sure. And one of the things that I want to share with you, Keith, is that, you know, back in the peak of the market, the market peaked, say, at the end of 21 early 22 there were so many investors that were in multifamily or that wanted to be in multifamily. And the other thing that caused this so called, you know, downturn that I didn't mention before is, let's take this $10 million deal. If a property was listed at $10 million you'd literally have 30 to 40 buyer groups pursuing that deal, bidding up the price. Yeah. And so a $10 million Listing would sell for 11 and a half million Okay, now what I'm seeing is that same $10 million deal might sell for a seven to 8 million and you might be the only buyer going after the deal. Wow. And how do I know? Because you said, like, I run a an investor community and and I have active multifamily buyers, and I coach them, and I look at their deals, and this is what's happening. And the other reason I know is I sold two of my deals personally in 2025 and both of the deals that I sold, I bought in 2015 where we had 10 year fixed rate debt. So we didn't sell because we had a three year loan. We needed to sell because we had a 10 year loan due. And look, first thing I'll say is I made money, because over that 10 year period, values did go up. They peaked in 2022 and they came back down that because I bought it so long ago. That's the one lesson that I think people also want to understand, is over the long term, the values always tend to go up, but there are short term ups and downs that one would need to be aware of. But when I sold these two deals like I didn't have many buyers one deal in particular. I mean, I had eight buyers going after the deal, but only one was anywhere close to what I wanted. So I was negotiating with myself, you know, telling the buyer and his broker, hey, you know the other guys are here, and you got to come up on price and you got to come up on terms. But truthfully, I was bluffing, because I didn't have anybody that was coming up on price or coming up on terms. And so part of why I'm answering this way is when you look at the forecast, one thing that that I want people to know is that those. Of us that are in the business now and that have our pencils up, and we're underwriting deals, and we're making offers, like I used to teach Keith, don't make lowball offers, because you'll develop a reputation of being that guy or that borrower or that buyer that submits lowball offers, right? And word will get around in that market? Well, right now, like low ball offers are expected, and I would encourage people, let's just say you make an offer that whatever the deal pencils out to. So if you know how to underwrite deals correctly, and they're offering 10 million as a listing price, and you're coming up at seven or 7.5 don't be bashful to make the offer, and you may be the only buyer in the game. So that's one thing is like the competition that I'm seeing right now on the buyer side is not a lot of competition, and that's definitely shifted to a buyer's market. So people need to know that. The other thing I would say, on the macro level, is there's still a lot of uncertainty out there, and the uncertainty is kind of becoming like what I would call a new normal. You know? I'll speak for myself. When Trump was elected and at the end of 2024 I thought it was going to be amazingly well for all of us real estate investors, right? And there are some things that have been like the big, beautiful bill that restores 100% bonus depreciation like this is a really good thing, but you know, the tariffs, the immigration policies, some of the things that he's doing, you know, they have mixed impact for us and our in the economy and in real estate and in multifamily. And the thing is, when he first started doing that again, like lenders, they didn't know how to price debt, like, what's going to happen with tariffs, what's going to happen with ice what's going to happen with immigration, you know? But now that we're a year in to his second term, I can tell you a couple things. Debt is back. Lenders are lending. They're confident. Lenders are issuing debt like you can get 70 to 75% of your acquisition funded by a commercial lender. The government agencies are lending. Freddie Mac is lending. Fannie Mae is lending, and they have a mandate to lend 20% more money in 2026 than they did in 2025 so that bodes well for people that want to get, you know, affordable workforce housing, which is my specialty, also known as Class B and Class C housing. So the lenders are lending like, there's a lot of debt out there. One of the challenges is the equity. There's a lot of institutional equity. But if you're going to the retail investor who got into the business three to five years ago. They don't want to hear about your next deal right now, they're wondering about, hey, what about the deals that I'm in? Right? So one of the things that I'm doing, Keith is, and I think, you know, this is like, you know, I build up a huge investor community from 2012 to 2022 and I did it by traveling the country, speaking at conferences, sponsoring trade shows, talking about the benefits of investing in apartment buildings, how it changed my life, how it enabled me to retire from a six figure income in just three years, and how I've helped many, many other people Do the same, and also just sharing experience today, every asset class, every 10 to 15 years is going to go through a correction. And so where we're at now. And I wasn't the only one on the forecast. I brought in John Chang who is the senior intelligence officer at Marcus and millichep, one of the biggest commercial real estate firms in the country, and he presented about 20 or 30 slides that by and large were very bullish on where we're at in the market cycle. Why now is a great time to be looking at apartment buildings, a lot of the same things that I've been talking about. Prices are down. It's a buyer's market. We have a huge affordability issue. More and more people are becoming renters, and so what I'm committed to do, Keith and I don't know if I shared with you my travel schedule, like when we met each other last month, but I'm on the road every single week going to another city, talking about where I see us right now in the market, and why people should be looking at deals and making offers right now. Because to me, you know, Warren Buffett said it best. He's like, you want to be fearful when everybody else is being greedy, and you want to be greedy when everybody's being fearful. And right now, people are on the sidelines. They're waiting for some green light, like for the Wall Street Journal to come out and say, Hey, now's a good time, you know? I mean, look, Trump, just the point of the new Fed chair, right? And so we know interest rates are going to go down like that's one of his goals, and the guy that he appointed is going to lower rates. So we're looking at a future, a very near future, where we have lower rates, and lower rates is going to create more demand, again, for people that want to buy. I invest in apartments now, look, if you wait another year, I still think it's going to be a good time, but I think we have a better time right now.

Keith Weinhold 30:10

I sold one apartment building in 2022 for about $1 million and I sold another one of my apartment buildings in 2023 for about $1 million I had bought those in 2013 with 10 year balloon loans, so I was enjoying that nice fixed rate as late and as long as I could, until 2022, nine years and 2023, 10 years before the rate went up on me. But of course, my new buyer had to pay that rate, so it limited the amount that they could offer for it. However, to your point about investing for a long time horizon, I still had profits on those nine and 10 year holds, but yeah, to your point, Brad about the looser lending, this is huge. I read a summary of the latest national Multifamily Housing Council meeting, and one of the biggest takeaways that came out of that meeting is that there is abundant debt available. It's in increasingly attractive terms. And a lot of people think about mortgages, and they just think about the rates, and you should that's certainly important, but they don't think as much about the propensity for others to lend. How loose, or how tight are those standards? They're loose, yeah.

Brad Sumrok 31:25

And, I mean, look, the first deal I did in 2002 the interest rate was 6.35% the rates right now are less than that, you know, as of the date of this recording. So, you know, I always talk about a base case of a $10 million deal. It may seem large to you or to people listening, but like in my world of syndication, where we're not just looking at the real estate piece, but learning how to raise money to buy real estate so we could have a bigger property that's professionally managed and become a true business owner like Robert Kiyosaki talks about, do you want to be self employed? I tell my students, buy a six Plex. Do you want to own an apartment business by 60 units and hire a management company? So when I'm talking about this $10 million deal, you know, you can get a $7 million loan right now for probably in the mid 5% and it would be non recourse, and you could probably get three years of interest only, meaning for the first three years, you're going to have a higher cash flow. So like, this is a really good loan compared to 2021 when we could get 3% debt. It's not but remember that 3% loan was a short term loan. You know, it wasn't a 10 year fixed rate loan, it was a short term loan, and we all saw what happened with that when they raised rates so many times in such a short period. So the fixed rate debt is very competitive based on, like, the long term, 20 year average, and it's lower than it was when I started.

Keith Weinhold 32:55

Well, we've been talking about elements of your apartment market forecast, and of course, that's going to inform your Buy Box. Brad, you mentor students constantly and oftentimes we think about a Buy Box. We think about then in terms of geographic market, but as we look for an opportunity, we also might think about some other things in your Buy Box, for example, new build versus vintage build. So with all of this traveling you do, and you're in the markets, and you're informing students, and you're looking at students prospective deals as well. But tell us more about what a good buy box is for the near term in apartment buildings.

Brad Sumrok 33:36

Yeah. So look like what is in the buy box, right? So one is going to be your location. And so, you know, how do I select a good location? Just some tips and strategies around that is, I look for landlord and business friendly environments. In other words, if the tenant doesn't pay, do they get to stay or not, you know, so I like to be in market so that they don't pay, that we could legally, you know, not have them consume our product for a long period of time. So I also look at things like job growth and population growth, affordability gap. New supply is a percentage of inventory, you know, the new supply coming online in a diversified economy. So, like, you want to get your geographies nailed down. Like, where you buy matters, like, there's no substitute to I would rather pay more for a property in a location that meets that criteria than less for a property that doesn't. Yeah. So geography is important. You want to pick your property size, like, how many units, or what's the price point. Okay? And this is huge, because if you're gonna buy your own deal with your own money, which is another reason I prefer syndication. Let's say you have pick a number, 100,000 to invest. Like you can only buy a $300,000 property, two units somewhere, three units somewhere, you know. Or zero units somewhere, right, right? So if you have expanded your you know, your mind and your skill set to do a syndication 100,000 doesn't limit you to your own money, you know. And then I would say, Well, what is a great size for a first time syndicator is I would target somewhere around 60 to 80 units, and at 100,000 a unit, which is a ballpark price for maybe a nice B class property or high C Class property, and a market that meets the criteria that I outlined earlier. You know, you're looking at, say, a six to $8 million property. And so what you could do from there, Keith is, you could say, Okay, well, you know, this is why, like in my educational course, I use a $10 million property, because the numbers are easy. But even just say, Well, I'm going to do an $8 million property, you'd say, Okay, I need two to 3 million down, depending on the debt, right? And then I'm going to get a the balance in a loan, you know, because you could get a 70 to 75% loan. So then you ask, Well, where am I going to get to 2 million, right? If I have 100 I need $1.9 million and so then you got to start thinking about like, do I have access to people or work or in the neighborhood or at the community or at the church, you know, or do I go to masterminds and conferences and meetup groups like, where I saw you Keith last month, like, there's a lot of investors there with a lot of money, right? And some of them are looking to be passive investors. And so, you know, there's a whole nother conversation around, you know, raising capital. And if you can't raise capital, then you may want to bring in some people on your GP team that could help you raise capital, as long as you're following, like the SEC compliance and again, that's another discussion. That's the importance of having the buy box so you have your geography, your property size, your property class. You know, again, if you just want the new construction stuff. There's some people out there, like big name, famous people, that are highlighting their 800 unit a class deals that they're buying. And of course, like you or I that are just getting started, can't go buy that deal. And so why? You know the institutions are going after the large A class properties in the best areas. And so where I've made my niche Keith, and what I would recommend most people start is start with the older vintage properties, start with the 1970s properties, and then maybe work your way up to the 1980s and 1990s properties. And why is this is because the institutions don't want those properties, and they're still able to be professionally managed. Like, if you go and buy 100 unit C Class property, as long as it's not in a bad neighborhood with, like, high crime or whatever like that. Like, these are very honest, hard working, working class people that need a clean, safe and functional place to live, and you'll be able to get better returns on a C or A B class, also known as like the cap rate. And again, that's another discussion, but you'll be able to get a better return on an older vintage property than you would on a vintage property. And you're not competing with the institutions, but you're also not competing with the mom and pops, because the mom and pops are going to take that 100,000 they have and go buy a duplex. You know, they're not going to want to syndicate a deal. They're not going to want to have partners. They're not going to want to deal with the so called complexities of buying a company. And that's what buying an apartment community is, Keith, it's buying a company. You're buying a business that has an income stream already being generated those customers, they're called residents. They're called tenants, you know, but if you just go upstream from buying real estate or buying an apartment building, we're buying a cash flow producing business that's existing, that's in place, and then our job is to figure out how to run it better and more efficiently. You the

Keith Weinhold 39:04

You the listener, you might have access to, say, 500k in equity that's sitting in your existing properties. And some of these numbers that Brad and I are throwing around are rather large, $10 billion but one of the biggest epiphanies that I think your students have is that doesn't need to be much of your own money. We're talking about what's called the capital stack to take down a $10 million apartment building. Maybe you borrow seven and a half million of that. Maybe you raise 2 million of that from your other investors in the syndication, and then you put your 500k into the deal, and there you have $10 million in order to make that purchase. But yes, that does involve a learning curve and the SEC rules and all that. But the big takeaway here is you don't need much of your own money. You can leverage other people's money, even for the down payment. And Brad, you're also an expert at showing people how to pay almost. Zero tax, which is another discussion unto itself, but some of your students start with zero experience, and within a few short years, I mean, you've had hundreds of people that have either retired early or increased their net worth by over a million dollars. A lot of success stories,

Brad Sumrok 40:17

yeah, look, I mean, I started with no previous real estate investing experience. My experience was going to college, studying hard, getting decent grades, becoming an engineer, you know, being fired once, being laid off once, and reading Robert Kiyosaki books that motivated me to to go out and seek specialized education. And I think it was Jim Rohn that said formal education, like degree could get you a job, and specialized education like you can get in a conference or a mastermind or a mentorship program. And that's also how I started. I went to a weekend workshop back in 2001 and I bought the mentorship program. And boy, I'm glad I did, because, you know, that's how I got into my first 62 units. So you don't need to have experience. What you need to have is a powerful reason, a powerful why? Why do I want to be financially free? Like apartments is just a vehicle. I didn't choose apartments because I love departments. I choose departments because they cash flow, they go up in value, and you have amazing depreciation benefits.

Keith Weinhold 41:23

Yeah, I'm the same. I don't love apartments in a way. I don't love real estate. I love what these things do for me

Brad Sumrok 41:30

exactly. Yeah? So, like, you don't have to have experience. In the other category, of people that have come into my community that don't have apartment experience, a lot of them have real estate experience, Keith, that are doing, like, single family homes, short term rentals, or maybe smaller, multi unit deals. And they listen to a show like this, and they're like, huh, I want to transition from doing these smaller types of assets with my own money and self managing to scaling into a syndication.

Keith Weinhold 42:03

Brad has taken countless people from get rich education to got rich education. His core values are faith, finance, fitness, family and fulfillment. He is committed to helping people experience not just financial success, but personal fulfillment, purpose, contribution, freedom and Brad and his investor community have contributed over $1 million to charity. Is really the person you want to learn from if you want to think about going bigger with multifamily apartment buildings. This has been great, Brad. Let our audience know how they can connect with you and learn more?

Brad Sumrok 42:42

Yeah, sure. So I would say this is where I should just be very clear here, okay, but I'm gonna give a couple options, because that's what I'm so of course, there's a website which is my first and last name.com, B, R, A, D, S, U, M, R, O, k, for those of you on social media, I respond to my own social so you'll find me again. B, R, A, D, S, U, M, R, O, K, on LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook.

Keith Weinhold 43:13

Brad, it's been so valuable. It seems like American apartment buildings are in for redemption story here. It's been great having you back on the show.

Keith Weinhold 43:29

Brad and I both emphasize physical fitness, and we chatted about that a good bit when we were together last month. I think he looks better than me. To summarize, the reasons for this historic collapse in apartment building values. It was the combination of soaring interest rates, massive inflation, spiking insurance costs, construction soared, and it created an oversupply, and that oversupply still is not absorbed. In fact, according to the outlet apartment list, the National multifamily vacancy rate recently hit 7.2% that's the highest in the history of the index, which dates back to 2017 and that's chiefly due to apartment oversupply. Have apartments really hit the bottom? Brad just said, we're at or near the bottom, and it's a good time to be gearing up as far as what's coming. To give you an idea of new apartment supply, what takes about two years from construction start to completion. And now you can't just have all US apartment construction come to a complete stop. You have to keep people working. And there are almost 400 MSAs in the United States, so you couldn't coordinate a complete ceasing of construction across every area. So how about the level of new construction starts in apartment units today, and the way that HUD counts it is the number of units started in buildings of five plus units the recent peak. Was about 600,000 annually in 2023 and today it's closer to 400,000 there it is that slowing pace of new apartment construction. If you jump into multifam, be careful of properties with deferred maintenance, because understand that you have a lot of underfunded owners Now Brad can tell you specifically what to look out for his rat race to retirement event is March 28 and 29th in Dallas. It's a two day hands on workshop. You'll learn how to find apartment deals, how to underwrite deals, how to raise capital management and your exit. Discover how you can retire in five years or less by owning apartments again. His website is Brad sumrock.com

Keith Weinhold 45:49

coming up on future episodes here on the get rich education podcast. We're about to go on a run. The next stretch of GRE is loaded. We've got fresh topics with some game changing monolog content that I'm going to share with you new guests, distinguished experts, we're going to break down an innovative way to sell properties that could completely change how you think about your exit strategy of the 50 US states. I'm going to discuss some awful states to invest in, including ones with population loss. On another episode, a distinguished subject matter expert and I are going to dive deep on does America really have a housing shortage, not in apartments which are oversupplied, but is there a shortage in the one to four unit space? That's our topic, because you probably heard contradictory information in the media about whether there's a shortage or not, and then some outlets say there's a housing shortage of 2 million units. Others, 10 million. They're all over the place. We're going to sort it out on an upcoming episode. Does America really have a housing shortage? Then the youngest guest to ever appear on the show will be with us. He's a 19 year old college student that has a real estate investing related major, and since last year, he and I have befriended each other. He was born in about 2006 so it'll be interesting to see how he views the investing world and what they teach him about real estate investing in college today, he is probably the most impressive teenager that I've ever met in my life. Then six weeks from now, we will have an epic get rich education podcast episode 600 on a subject as paradoxical and complete with a GRE contrarianism That builds real wealth, debt is the American dream will be episode 600 if you're serious about building wealth, be sure to follow or subscribe to the show. We are going on a run. If you know someone in your life who needs to think differently. If you know one investor who's still waiting for perfect conditions. This will help them tap the Share button and tell them about the show until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your daydream.

Unknown Speaker 48:14

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 48:42

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com

Keith explores how a shift in mindset can change the way you build wealth, why so many new landlords are entering the market, and what recent economic trends could mean for future rents.

You'll also hear how one Florida investor is navigating a changing housing landscape, and learn about a timely opportunity in one of the country's fastest‑growing real estate markets—all without needing to be a hands-on landlord.

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Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the risk of delayed gratification is denied gratification. There's a new wave of landlords. Wages are rising faster than both inflation and home prices. Learn what that's going to mean for rents. Hear the voices of five different Federal Reserve chairs, then GRE announces our biggest event of the year, and you're invited today on get rich education.

Corey Coates 0:32

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Keith Weinhold 1:16

mid south home buyers, with over two decades is the nation's highest rated turnkey provider, their empathetic property managers use your return on investment as their North Star. It's no wonder smart investors line up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone headquartered in Memphis, with their globally attractive cash flows, mid south has an A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau and 4000 houses renovated, there is zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate with an industry leading three and a half year average renter term. Every home they offer you will have brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter in an astounding price range, 100 to 150k GET TO KNOW mid south enjoy cash flow from day one at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid southhomebuyers.com

Corey Coates 2:19

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 2:35

Welcome to GRE from the Adriatic Sea to the Atlantic Ocean and across 188 nations worldwide, I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education. Sometimes we all need a mindset reset, and this can include me. Sometimes. James clear, the author of atomic habits, says there are four types of wealth, financial wealth, which is money, social wealth, which is status, time, wealth which is freedom, and physical wealth, which is health. Be wary of jobs that seduce you with one and two but rob you of three and four. That is to say, be careful with jobs that seduce you with financial and social wealth but rob you of time and physical wealth that is definitely going to happen to you during your life, especially early in your working career. But many people, even most people, they don't do much about this. They just go on and on, selling their soul to their employer for decades. Sometimes paychecks aren't compensation. They're a bribe from an employer to give up your dreams early in your career, delayed gratification actually makes some sense, because you need capital formation, you need down payments, you need dry powder. That is totally fair and the time in your life for delayed gratification. But there's a point that most people miss, the point where delayed gratification quietly mutates into denied gratification. This is huge. Most people miss this inflection point. When is this point in your life? That's when I'll do it later becomes, well, I guess I never did it at all. They look up at what they've got at age 65 and realize that they have a respectable title. They still wear Dockers pants. They have a 401, K that they must start paying tax on, and knees that creak louder than. The front door. Compound Interest hardly outpaces taxes and inflation. That's just going to keep you in one spot, you know, and you're never going to get that time back. There is no do over there. So you need to get to the point where you can be more frugal with your time than your money. Younger people have a harder time adopting this mindset, and that's a little natural, because they have more time and less money. Sooner than later, you must desperately get financially free so that you can simply be your self workaholics, optimize income instead of assets, and you can't let that happen, because labor does not compound and capital does compound, your quality of life will exceed your cost of living when your life is funded by what you own, not by what you do that takes a different mindset. You can either be a conformer or you can build wealth when you invest in real estate that pays five ways. It's like what you're doing is buying future Tuesdays, where you never have to work again and then later, add on future Wednesdays, where you never have to work again because you got the compound leverage instead of the impotent compound interest. I mean, just consider your two and a half million dollar portfolio that is passively doing the same work as someone who sells 40 to 50 hours a week of their life away for 100k in yearly salary. All right, maybe you're thinking, Oh, that all sounds thought provoking, but if you're not engaged on that, it can sound airy and philosophical and even risky. It's sort of like, yeah, you're cueing the acoustic guitar music and slow motion images of someone pensively gazing at a sunset.

Keith Weinhold 7:12

All right, what is the concrete plan? It's not all about mindset. It only starts with mindset. You got to make that actionable. Well, we constantly provide concrete plans for you here on this show, and I've got another concrete plan for you toward the end of the show today. This harkens back to what I discussed with you seven weeks ago, seven episodes ago on the show. That's when I discussed the world's first billionaire, John D Rockefeller and his enduring quote from about 100 years ago, he who works all day has no time to make money. Yeah, that's the quote a little review. What you learned seven episodes ago is that Rockefeller meant, if you spend your life doing tasks, you're never going to rise high enough to own things that pay you for life. The bottom line here is that earning a living is a distinctly different activity than building wealth. That's what we're talking about here.

Keith Weinhold 8:14

Well, there is a new wave of landlords entering the market, and they are reshaping what owning rentals looks like. One survey by rental platform avail of nearly 2000 users. It's really influential. It found that 53% of landlords became landlords in the last five years. So you have a lot of new landlords with the most 17% of landlords entering the market in just the last year, most purchased a property specifically to rent it out, and 1/3 sort of backed into this business by renting out their former residence. Of course, some people want to rent out their former residence today, if they got locked into that sexy owner occupied three and 4% financing from 2022 and earlier, the survey went on to tell us with some really good takeaways here, 72% of landlords manage between one and four units, and this avail survey. I mean, it's just another one that shows that the majority of landlords operate small portfolios, classic mom and pop investors. That one's not too surprising. The top three reasons that landlords gave for entering the rental market, they're pretty interesting. The number one reason for getting into this at 41% of respondents is building long term wealth. Next 33% for generating passive income, and the third most popular one, it's a distant third, it is preparing for retirement at 13% so building long term wealth is the number one reason for getting into this, and that is the right reason. Them when it comes to ownership structure, 64% said that they own the property individually, whether that's through a single member LLC or in their own name, doing it, yeah, individually, rather than with a family member or a business partner. So really, the summary of this terrific, recent avail landlord survey is that if you're just getting started, you're not alone. A lot of people are most own properties solely in their own name, and the number one reason for doing it is to build long term wealth. Now there's another pervasive set of economic trends out there in the broader economy, but it's really a benefit for real estate investors, and that is the fact that wage growth has now outpaced consumer price growth for three years. Yeah, another way to say that is that wage growth has outpaced inflation for fully three years. Yeah, most people just aren't feeling it yet. So you might be taken somewhat aback by that, and why aren't people feeling that wage growth is faster than inflation, the pandemic inflation spike that was so huge, it was like getting hit with a freight train, and then someone tells you, good news, the train has stopped. Yeah, that's nice. You are still lying on the tracks, rubbing your ribs. That's because we're all still absorbing spiked prices for everything from a lumber two by four to a York Peppermint Patty, year over year, wages are up 3.8% and consumer inflation is 3% All right, so wages above inflation, that means things are getting a little more affordable, but both wages and inflation have grown faster than home prices, which have only grown about one and a half percent, and this is all per the BLS in the FHFA, so wage growth Being more than double home price growth. Well, that trend really makes properties more affordable, but historically, they're still not that affordable. Everybody knows that home prices soared until about 2023 that was the turning point, and now wages are in their catch up phase. All right, but what really matters to real estate investors is, when will this wage growth translate to rent growth, historically, big rent growth that lags big home price growth by about two to four years. So you have the big home price growth, big rent growth hits two to four years later, historically. Now, if that holds true, we should finally see substantial rent growth this year or next year. Rent growth has still been pretty soft in the one to four unit space, and even there are rent decreases in the overbuilt apartment space. Future income growth promises to make homes more affordable. Affordability has already improved, with mortgage rates hovering near three year lows. There's one problem, though, that most people overlook, and that is this wage growth has been skewed toward the higher income deciles, renters, especially workforce renters, they don't feel it until later. So this 3.8% wage growth, it's heavier for higher income people, and it's lighter for lower income people. I swear, when there are enriching economic trends, it always hits the higher income people first, and it doesn't trickle down until later. So if you as an investor, are positioned before the rent wave hits, you are surfing, and if you wait to feel it, you're swimming behind the boat. Higher wages should translate to higher rents in the next one to two years. And as far as some other forces, as we all know, the man occupying the oval office in the White House, the President, he wants lower rates. The current Fed Chair isn't so willing to do that. The next one, the one he appointed, Kevin Warsh, who arrives in May. He seems more receptive to lower rates, but it's gonna take a while. It all moves so slow. We have had 16 fed chairs before worsh over 112 years. And look how much of an econ nerd Are you? Are you as bad as me? These voices are in chronological order, and I can name each speaker.

Corey Coates 14:47

You're going to have to live with the fact that forecasts have a range of uncertainty, irrational exuberance.

Corey Coates 14:54

In my opening remarks, I'd like to briefly first review today's policy decision, but

Corey Coates 14:58

first I'll review recent. Economic developments in the Outlook, and we are well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves.

Keith Weinhold 15:06

If you can name each of those speakers, I would love to give you a free property from gremarketplace.com but I can't quite swing that in order. Those voices are Paul Volcker. He served from 1979 to 87 he was known for crushing double digit inflation by jacking rates to near 20% it was painful medicine, but it worked the next one. Alan Greenspan sir, from 1987 to 2006 that was a long reign, almost 20 years. He oversaw the 90s economic boom, the.com bubble and the early housing bubble. Years so far, Greenspan is the only Fed chair that I have met in person. Then Ben Bernanke, he was the Fed chair from 2006 to 2014 he took the helm right before the 2008 financial crisis. He rolled out QE and emergency lending on an historic scale. In fact, he was nicknamed helicopter Ben because it's like he would print so much money that he just dropped it out of huge sacks, dollar bills in huge sacks, dropping them from an airplane, metaphorically, not literally. Then Janet Yellen, 2014 to 2018 she kind of continued this post crisis normalization, and she was the first woman to chair the Fed and then, of course, Jerome Powell serving from 2018 to 2026 he navigated the covid stimulus, ultra low rates. And then after that, the fastest rate hiking cycle in decades to fight inflation back in 2022 being the Fed chair is the most important job in this economy, and over the decades, there's been more of a movement of the fed into the public eye. You just hear about them more in the media than you used to. But like I touched on last week, it just still doesn't mean as much to real estate investors as a lot of people think, people sometimes look for someone else to come save them, but it's more about you and the choices that you make that's what means more housing supply and demand means more real estate investors have profited during every one of those Fed Chair reigns, which go back almost 50 years from Volcker to today, I think everybody knows that fed chairs don't control property prices, and they don't even control long term interest rates. What's a little paradoxical is that Trump has been vocal about how he wants more affordable home prices, yet at the same time he wants existing homeowners to have their home prices go up, those two things seem to be in tension. They're in conflict with each other. The only way you can possibly get both are through lower mortgage rates. But is he going to see later today you as a GRE follower, you don't have to wait for lower rates income, property still feels less affordable than it did five years ago, because it is that's real but here's the key distinction in what makes real estate investors different from owner occupied homeowners. Affordability isn't about the price of the property, it's about whether the property pays for itself and grows your net worth while inflation does the heavy lifting. Higher prices don't kill investors. Inaction during inflation does you're not buying a say, $350,000 property. You're controlling it with $70,000 while your tenant and inflation do the rest. We do not rely on hope or appreciation. We start with income tax benefits and debt pay down and then leverage appreciation typically happens as well. GRE only succeeds when investors close on properties that perform long term. One bad referral costs us years of trust, so we don't do that. The best question for you really isn't whether property is affordable. The question is whether owning an investment property is better than inflation compounding against you. That's the investor lens today.

Keith Weinhold 19:24

coming up next week on the show here, we're going to discuss apartments. It's been a truly be leaguered sector, where their prices have fallen 2030, and 40% in many markets. We've discussed apartments here on the show a lot before, like with Grant Cardone on episode 264, with Ken McElroy, countless times with me monologuing about apartments. And next week, we're going to talk to a multifamily educator who is known as the apartment King. Later on, a future show, we've got the return of the financial. Firebrand, and lately, the financial comedian Garrett Gunderson, a powerful speaker. That's definitely going to be interesting. As for today, you'll hear a first person account from a Florida resident about why he's moved to Florida and why he invests there. You've heard of this guy before. That's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Episode 593, of get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 20:26

Flock homes helps you retire from real estate and landlording, whether it's one problem property or your whole portfolio, through a 721, exchange, deferring your capital gains tax and depreciation recapture, it's a strategy long used by the ultra wealthy. Now Mom and Pop landlords can 721, the residential real estate request your initial valuation, see if your properties [email protected] slash GRE. That's f, l, O, C, K, homes.com/G. R, E,

Keith Weinhold 21:02

you know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program. When you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products. They've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom family investments.com/gre, or send a text. Now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep, text their freedom coach directly again. 1-937-795-8989,

Keith Weinhold 22:13

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally. While it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com

Zack Lemaster 22:47

this is rental retirement Zach Lee Masters. Listen to get rich education with Keith bleinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 23:02

I'd like to welcome in our own in house. GRE investment coach, we haven't had you on the show since November. Welcome in Naresh.

Naresh Vissa 23:11

Kwith, It's a pleasure to be back on the show. Thanks for having me on.

Keith Weinhold 23:16

We're just playing it all casual and comfortable here in house. You were just finishing up, what ice cream or a container of something right before we got started

Naresh Vissa 23:25

here, all done with the ice cream and ready to record the podcast.

Keith Weinhold 23:29

Yeah, all right, keeping cool for our chat. Well, you know you do live in Florida, so you must have your own perspective on the Florida market. You live in the Tampa area, and the reason that that's a germane topic is that's something we've been talking about here lately as really an opportunity, and that is because most of Florida has seen some temporary property price attrition, but yet more population growth is projected. So that's why we feel like that's temporary. But why don't you tell us about what you see on the ground there?

Naresh Vissa 24:07

Keith, I've lived in Florida for 11 and a half years now. That's Tampa, Florida. I like Florida a lot. I moved here December 2014 for similar reasons that many people are moving here today. So I moved to Florida in December 2014 because of no state income tax, because of, at the time, lower cost of living. Florida was one of the states I got hit the hardest during the 2008 financial crisis, or nothing called in a real estate crisis, Florida, Arizona, those few others got hit really, really hard. So Florida at that time was still rebounding from 2008 so I moved for the affordability, the no income tax, of course, the weather better. Weather. And then most places in the Northeast I've lived so weather is a big deal when it comes to real estate and geography as well. These are all different reasons to move to Florida, and these are the reasons why I moved to Florida. I was also single in my 20s, so I was much younger at the time. I was single in my mid 20s, and Florida is very good for that too. For 20 something Gen Z folks today, Florida is definitely a place that they should consider. I moved down here and I fell in love with it. From day one. I got a place living right on the water, a beach. Got beaches everywhere. Florida's tour. And I say all this because these are all enticing features of Florida, for renters, for tenants, for snowbirds. I had never even heard of what a snowbird was until I moved down to Florida, where you have people who literally live here for seven months of the year, and then they live in their home state for five months of the year. So that's generally what it is, seven months in Florida, five months in their home state, which can be the people I know personally are from New York, Connecticut, Illinois, Ohio. The list goes on and on. Basically anywhere that's north of Florida could be considered a snowbird area. So that's another reason why Florida is a very hot market. Now, obviously, during the pandemic, in end of 2020, people started moving to Florida in droves. Part of it was politically, because you didn't have the restrictions that other states had during that crazy time that we lived through. And another part of it was work from home. So similar to me, in 2014 when I became full time work from home, I wanted to move somewhere for all those different reasons that I gave you the total package, and Florida fit that there was maybe one other state that fit the bill, based on everything that I told you, probably one other state. That's it. So Florida fit the bill, and that's why I think Florida is always going to be despite the hurricane prep, Florida is always going to be a destination that people will seriously look at whether you're older, retirement age or younger. Like I said in my mid 20s, single guy Florida is always going to be that destination for all the reasons that I laid out. So with that being said, what does that mean for real estate? What that means for real estate is that there's going to be a constant supply of people coming into Florida, and when there's a constant supply of people coming into Florida, then you can expect real estate prices to at least not decline. We passed, you know, all sorts of bills, including Dodd Frank post 2008 to prevent people from taking out mortgages that they couldn't afford. So now that that's out of the way, when you have a constant supply of people who are able to afford homes, who are able to afford rents, well, that's going to be a constant supply. So that's good for investors, that's good for appreciation. It's good for cash flow. And that's why I'm a huge fan, not just of the state of Florida, but also investing in Florida. And I own real estate in Florida, and you can say that I lucked out, but I bought a property in 2019 and it nearly doubled in value, yeah, when I say doubled in value in a matter of I want to say, like, two years, two and a half years, it nearly doubled in value. So with that being said, Florida, this was a rare cyclical trend when we just saw this huge upswing, rare cyclical trend. But I don't anticipate cycles like this, where you're going to have booms and busts. Moving forward, we haven't seen a bus since 2008 like I said, the the law has been taken care of in that sense, the regulation. I love the state. I've lived in six major cities, but maybe five different states, and Florida is hands down my favorite. That's why I've lived here for what did I say? 11 and a half or 12 and a half years? I don't even remember anymore. It's actually 11 and a half. My roots are here. I now consider myself a Florida person, even more so than the state of Texas, where, which is where I spent 18 years. I have no doubt that I'll surpass 18 or 19 years in Florida, and that this is it, right here. And a major reason is because this is just such a great state. It's free, it's real estate friendly. This is for people who are looking at buying primary residences, not for investment properties. But the governor has put on the ballot this coming election cycle to remove, to abolish the property tax in the state of Florida. So if you own, if you live full time, not a snowbird, not investors, but if you live in Florida permanently, then no more property tax if the vote passes. So that's another huge plus for owning property if you're a permanent resident in Florida,

Keith Weinhold 29:57

yeah, even if the property tax is abolished. Which seems unlikely, you could just tell what the tenor and the temperature of the tax climate and the investing climate is like in Florida, if they're even spearheading such a proposal, and they're a national leader in something like property tax abolition, like they are and Naresh about eight years after you moved there, which would be, what about 2020? 2022, somewhere in there, we had that strong pandemic migration push into Florida. What's happened is that that flow has slowed down. There's still positive net in migration in there in Florida. But the builders, they got ahead of this, and the pandemic migration wave waned, and they had a temporarily overbuilt condition, and they still do now, which is one reason why we've seen prices fall somewhat in most Florida zip codes, and this spells part of the opportunity. So you do have all these new build properties, some of which are vacant, but you have a good chance they're going to get absorbed pretty soon. And there are some obvious advantages to owning new build.

Naresh Vissa 31:11

Well, Keith, there is brand new construction in Florida, like you said. The work started in 2021 and there are homes that have not been sold. I don't want to say, since they were finished building in 2021 they recently finished building in 2025 and these homes could be a variety of reasons. It could be economic related. It could be hurricane related. In Tampa, the Central Florida, we had two horrible hurricanes back to back within a 15 day period, two really bad hurricanes towards the end of 2024 September and October 2024 and people lost their homes. Renters lost their homes. Other people just were freaked out and scared and said, You know what? I don't want to deal with. I've got PTSD from these hurricanes. I'm moving up to Alabama or Georgia or Orlando, you know, somewhere in Central Florida, that's a way. But even that area, you know, the hurricane still made it through to those areas too. People just picked up and said, You know what I'm done with Florida. It's a great state, but I don't want to deal with these hurricanes. And so regardless, whatever the reason, this is a pie, and these are all slices of the pie, I don't know what's been more of a contributing factor than which one has been more than the others. But with that being said, there are tons of properties in Florida, pretty much the entire state of Florida, where, especially new construction properties, are below at the time when they were being built, they're below what they anticipated being listed as. And So Keith, we're having a special webinar this Thursday, talking about these properties because they are discounted properties. They are properties that are selling at tremendous discounts, like I said to when Ground was broken years ago. So join that webinar. Gre, webinars.com gre webinars.com. Again, brand new construction. Many of these properties already have tenants in place. Not all of them, but many of them do already have tenants in place. There are all sorts of incentives that the builder is offering. And there are many builders in that, not just this one that's going to be on the webinar, but in Florida, there are many builders who are offering discounts, rate, buy downs, other incentives, because the home values have fallen somewhat a bit. Why have the home values falling? Because the demand has fallen as well. So again, the next question people might have is, well, if the demand is falling, if home home values are falling, why would I buy the trend is downward. And the answer is, whether it's a stock or any other security, you don't necessarily want to have the FOMO to buy at an all time high, just because everyone else is buying it. And I actually have family members who bought real estate at the peak of 2022 there was FOMO and there was, hey, you know, I need to get a flip, and they're down. They bought peak 2022, and they're down today. Because, look, you can pick any housing market in the country, especially a prime state like Florida. Look at any 30 year period, and you will see that home values are up double digits, even if you look at 2009 when the housing market crashed and we reached something like 10 year bottom in housing, if you look at the 30 year period, well, if someone who bought a house in Florida in, say, 1979 was still way up on their property in 2009 30 years later, we're not buying Bitcoin here where it can go up 30% in one day or go down 30% in one day. We're talking real estate, and real estate has been proven. It's been tested. It's been proven throughout time, not even a 30 year period. I think if you take any 20 year period, you're going to see the same trend of double digit gains, double digit growth. On real estate appreciation. So I'd say, if you're skeptical about Florida, you see these home values, all these discounts, that's the first thing I hear from followers. They say, why are they offering so many discounts? I'm a little concerned about all these discounts and incentives, and I don't know if that's a good thing. Well, I say, Well, I mean, you can buy full price in another state, if you'd like, you know, in California or so you could, you're more than free to buy full price. But we're talking Florida here. We're not talking about West Virginia or Rhode Island, or, you know, Nebraska. We're talking Florida. This is still the land of Mickey Mouse and Minnie Mouse, this is the land of the best beaches in the country. I mean, they there's just no arguing or debating these facts. Florida all the reasons that I stated earlier, is going to continue to be a hot, hot market. So I highly recommend people, if you want to get in on these discounted deals, G R E, webinars.com G R E, webinars.com register for our upcoming online and live special event this Thursday evening at 8pm Eastern Time, 8pm Eastern Time, gre webinars.com you won't want to miss this free, online and live special event.

Keith Weinhold 36:25

When a pound of oranges is on sale or a pound of zucchini is on sale, consumers are often attracted to that sale. Should probably be the same way with you considering adding to your real estate portfolio, and it's funny, when oranges of zucchinis are on sale, no one tries to find fault with it and think that they're rotten inside or something like that. But somehow with real estate or an investment that tends to get scrutiny from people, but these are real discounts that you're getting over buying, say, two years ago, and we're talking about a motivated seller here. And as you know, Naresh, we had the builder on the show last week, the one that's going to be co hosting the webinar with you on Thursday, and he talked to us about buying down mortgage rates to between 3.75% and 4.25% and we're here at a time where the owner occupied rate is six to six and a quarter the investor rate is seven, so you're getting about a three percentage point buy down. That's really the attraction. And Naresh, before I ask you, if you have any last thoughts, yes, again, it is our live event that you can attend from the comfort of your own home, Thursday the 19th, at 8pm eastern in just a few days, here with Naresh and the builder who you heard on last week's show, co hosting a live webinar for Central Florida so inland new build income property. It's free. You're invited, and the benefit of you attending live is that you can have any of your questions answered in real time. You're going to learn more about the Central Florida market and more about the home building process, and you are going to be able to see available new bill property, real addresses, with some of these pretty grand incentives that we've talked about again. GRE webinars.com, any last thoughts? Naresh

Naresh Vissa 38:17

I get a lot of questions about is right now the time to buy? Should I buy later? What's going to happen with real estate? And I know the number one question, or the number one caution our followers are going to have, is, is right now the time is March or April, the time. And I say, look, with real estate, I already gave you the figure that you take any 20 year time period, any 30 year time period, and that's our time horizon here at GRE again, we're not trying to buy bitcoin here and flip it, you know, two days later, we're looking to buy and hold for, I don't want to say forever, but I know my time horizon in general is the full 30 year term, at least for my properties, and some people you know, want 10 or 15 years. That's fine too, but that's the time horizon. It is not one year, two years. We're not flipping new construction properties here in Central Florida. We are looking to buy and hold over the long haul, get some very good, high quality tenants in there, in these new construction properties, so that you, the GRE follower and the investor, can collect your monthly cash flow as well as over that 20 year period, or that 30 year period take part in appreciation as well. We've also talked extensively, Keith in previous episodes about interest rate cuts that the Federal Reserve is going to be doing, and just know this, there's a reason why the builder is offering these incentives where you can get the rates so low, your mortgage rate can be so low, and it's going to take at least a year, even if the Fed goes to zero. I mean, it's going to take mortgage rates a very long time. And to reach that point of getting such low interest rates that you just laid out, so that even makes it more enticing, like, Hey, I basically have a head start on the Federal Reserve because I follow the Fed pretty closely. We don't need to get into those details, but it's looking heavily like they are going to be start cutting again later this year, this summer. So it's looking like they're going to do that, but again, now you can have a head start, because when the Fed starts doing that, and when the mortgage rates fall, then everybody's going to jump in. And what's going to happen to the home values once everybody jumps in, well, they're going to go up. You want to jump in when everybody is not jumping in, and when you can get an amazing deal on these interest rates thanks to the builder buying down your interest rate. So this is a GRE special you can't get these deals. I challenge our followers to go on the internet and try to find better incentives or deals. And what you're going to see on this webinar, on this online, live special event. So gre webinars.com you can join me as well as our special guest. He heads up the builder. His name is Jim. He's going to be on with me. And please join us at grewebinars.com sign up for this free and live online special event.

Keith Weinhold 41:20

These are some great points. There's a lot of anticipation for Thursday, Naresh. We'll see you then.

Naresh Vissa 41:25

Thanks, Keith.

Keith Weinhold 41:32

Oh yeah, a first person account on Florida life and opportunity from our own Naresh nationally, the build to rent model that has been a real success, building single family rentals with the intent that they are rentals. From day one, over 321,000 homes have been built specifically as rentals this way since 2012, and more than three quarters of those in just the last five years. So the build to rent trend is picking up steam. About 1/3 of Americans rent their home, and although the word rental for some people that still conjures up visions of high rises packed with apartments, but a growing number of today's rentals are these freestanding, single family homes and duplexes like we're talking about today, nestled in suburban communities with top notch schools, and that's why a growing number of mom and pop investors have hopped on the build to rent bandwagon. They take less maintenance. It attracts quality tenants who stay longer, and the rentals have changed, but so had the renters. 20 years ago, it felt like tenants had to rent, like they had no choice. Today, you've got more and more tenants that choose to rent. Many of them make 100k to 125k or more. Today, rentals are cheaper than owning for those people, and they're less of a headache. A lot of them don't want to fix things, and you as the owner, don't want to either. That's why new build is attractive. Then, you know, I just sent that great map to our newsletter subscribers about which states saw the most population gain from 2020 to today, the South had more population growth than every other US region combined, which is jaw dropping and within the South, the state with the most population growth since 2020 is Florida, with An 8.9% population gain in that span, narrowly beating out Texas and South Carolina. By the way, even if it weren't for the attractive builder interest rate near 4% these Sunshine State deals could still make sense. New build single family rentals from the 270s new build duplexes, 395 to 420k low insurance rates, positive cash flow, a builder warranty. And it's really even better than that. These properties are centered on Ocala, Florida, which received national recognition as the fastest growing city for this second year in a row. That's according to a U haul report, and Florida is the epitome of investor friendly. Florida is the first state to enact a law allowing law enforcement to immediately remove squatters. It distinguishes them from legal tenants. You might come to the webinar event, perhaps thinking about 80k or 500k that you want to allocate toward property or maybe nothing and you just want to learn at the event you will evaluate realistic opportunities learn how property management is handled, and understand how today's inventory fits into your disciplined, long term strategy that all takes place on. On Thursday the 19th at 8pm Eastern. It's our biggest event of the year, and it is called Why Central Florida is the year's most compelling housing market. One last time for Thursday, it is gre webinars.com, until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Unknown Speaker 45:20

You nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 45:52

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building get richeducation.com

Keith looks at how a changing Federal Reserve leadership might shape the interest rate environment, then zooms in on what's really happening with homebuilders versus remodelers across the country.

You'll hear about a lesser-known strategy some investors are using to step back from day-to-day landlording while keeping their income, and then we head to Central Florida to explore why one fast-growing market is quietly becoming a hotspot for new-build rental properties.

Along the way, a longtime Florida builder joins the show to explain how they're creating affordable, investment-friendly homes and what kinds of rents and tenant demand they're seeing on the ground—plus a way you can learn more live if this opportunity fits your own portfolio plans.

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Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the naming of a new Federal Reserve Chair. Then are homebuilders in trouble today? There are a dwindling number of them, and their profits are down. I'll talk to a homebuilder. Listen to what amenities tenants want today, and it's interesting. We'll learn how low of a mortgage rate builders will give you. Now there's an opportunity here today on get rich education.

Corey Coates 0:30

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Keith Weinhold 1:14

mid south home buyers with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider, their empathetic property managers use your return on investment as their North Star. It's no wonder smart investors line up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone headquartered in Memphis, with their globally attractive cash flows, mid south has an A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau and 4000 houses renovated, there is zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate with an industry leading three and a half year average renter term. Every home they offer you will have brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter in an astounding price range, 100 to 150k GET TO KNOW mid south enjoy cash flow from day one at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid southhomebuyers.com

Speaker 1 2:17

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 2:33

Welcome to GRE from countersport Pennsylvania to Davenport Iowa and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education now more than ever, where you learn about personal finance and real estate investing matters. There's more AI generated content out there. This show is all flesh and blood me. There's also more clickbait content out there that says something like the housing market is about to have a price crash. No, it's not. They're just there to get short term attention. So your information source really matters today. New incoming Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, was recently named. He will replace the outgoing Jerome Powell on May 15. I want to tell you more about that in a moment. But first, just imagine if this scenario were to occur, say that we get a Fed chair that has to deal with really high inflation. And so what this Fed chair does is that he successfully brings inflation down, and he does that without triggering a recession that's called a soft landing. Well, you know what? That's exactly what Jerome Powell did the past three years. Yeah, that's what he's accomplished, and he doesn't get credit for it. He only gets a lot of criticism. Now this doesn't mean that I love Powell. I don't even know that the Fed should exist at all, but Powell got a lot of criticism for calling 2022, wave of inflation transitory, and being too late to respond to it. So he gets some credit here as his term of more than eight years winds down. Let's listen in to some of Jay Powell's recent comments about succession,

Speaker 2 4:23

you've obviously experienced a lot during your time as Fed chair, served under multiple presidents. I'm wondering what advice you have for whoever your successor might be.

Speaker 3 4:34

Honestly, I'd say a couple of things. One is, you know, stay out of elected politics. Don't get pulled into elected politics don't do it. And that's another thing. Another is that you know, our window into democratic accountability is Congress, and it's not a passive burden for us to go. To Congress and talk to people. It's an affirmative, regular obligation. If you want democratic legitimacy, you earn it by your interactions with the our elected overseers. And so it's something you need to work hard at, and I have worked hard at it so and the last thing is, you know, it's easy to it's easy to criticize government institutions so many ways. I will tell whoever it is you're about to meet the most qualified group of people you not only have ever worked with, you will ever work with and when you meet fed staff. And not everybody's perfect, but, but there isn't a better cadre of professionals more dedicated to the public well being than work at the Fed.

Keith Weinhold 5:43

Yeah. So to Powell's point, the next Fed chair, worsh, does champion fed independence, much like Powell has. That is a good thing that keeps America from turning into a banana republic that maintains a strong dollar. Warsh was actually a Fed Governor back during the 2008 global financial crisis, so he's got that experience when he comes in as Fed Chair in three months, he's widely expected to lower interest rates more than Powell did, much like the president wants. Kevin Warsh looks a lot like Michael Scott from the office. He has got to be less bumbling than him, though, overall, the effect on real estate and mortgage rates by shifting from PAL to worsh, I mean, that should be pretty mild. Maybe you'll see rates go a little lower than if pal had stayed and speaking of rates, wait till you see how low the mortgage rate is that our homebuilder guest is offering today. What's really happening with homebuilders now? How much trouble are they in? Homebuilders have largely been maligned. Overall. There are fewer homebuilders today in America than there were 20 years ago, and there are more remodelers than there were 20 years ago, fewer home builders, more remodelers, and that's for a few different reasons. Over the past couple decades, we just have substantially higher labor and material costs, stricter building and energy codes, higher interest rates, and that disproportionately hurts long duration construction projects. We've got zoning constraints and land constraints that make ground up development slow and uncertain and risky. So while the number of Home Builders in America is down, the number of remodelers are up, because America's housing stock is getting older. Its median age is over 40 years, and that creates constant demand for upgrades. Capital prefers faster, lower risk cycles. That's what remodels offer, and homeowners with locked in low mortgage rates choose to stay in place. And what does that make them do? That makes them renovate and remodel, not move. So this is why, compared to 20 years ago, you have fewer home builders and more remodelers. Today, that's per the NAHB and the Census Bureau and all these forces, they've resulted in a lower profit margin for homebuilders. Yes, homebuilder margin compression for a lot of the bigger builders, including DR Horton, just as you might guess in this cycle, their profits were greatest in 2022 and they have fallen since then. Higher mortgage rates came in, and builders had to lose profits by offering more incentives to entice buyers. You're going to learn more about that today and how it really spells quite an opportunity for you and I. When the final change in national home prices was tallied for the end of last year, they had risen in 16,500 zip codes. All right, that's 63% of America's zip codes, and prices were lower from a year earlier in the other 37% home price gains were concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest, and the story there continues to be too many buyers and not enough homes. In fact, over 85% of zip codes saw price growth in Illinois, Connecticut, Wisconsin and Indiana, slow, steady, stubborn, kind of like winter refusing to leave. Losses were predominant in the Sun Belt. Prices caught their breath there. There was price attrition in Florida, with 96% of zip codes, so nearly all of Florida, then California, 78% of zip codes had a price loss. Texas, 75% of them and Arizona, 73% the biggest pocket of opportunity appears to be in Florida. Florida property is on sale. And because real estate is local. A lot of times we talk here nationally, but to get to that local level, sometimes you have to dig in to a local market to really find out what's going on. We're going to do that today. Now, central Miami, Orlando and Tampa, they're not generally the spot for obtaining cash flow from long term rentals. I've identified an opportunity. We'll get into that with this Florida homebuilder shortly. It's kind of funny. You'll run into people that say they want opportunity, but what they really want is certainty. How it plays out, though, is that once the certainty arrives, the opportunity is gone, and that's how to think about Florida and maybe Texas and some of these other markets today that have had price attrition.

Keith Weinhold 10:48

Now, three weeks ago, here on the show, I discussed the 721 exchange for the first time. So I won't get into all those details again when it comes time for you to sell your investment property, the 721 can be the best way for you to cash out. Perhaps you've been investing in real estate for a while and you have turned get rich education into got rich education. How the 721 exchange works is they basically say you have a case where you're a rental property owner and you realize that you don't want the hassles of landlording anymore. Oftentimes, this can mean you're older and real estate investing already took you where you wanted it to take you in life's journey, but you still like the financial benefit that ownership gives you. What you can do is exchange your properties into a partnership and receive shares in that partnership. Now that's different than a 1031, exchange. That's where you trade up some of your property that you directly own for what's usually more and larger property that you directly own. Well, instead, here's the big deal with exchanging your properties into a 721, partnership. The rules stipulate that this is not a taxable event, and therefore you don't have to pay any capital gains tax or depreciation recapture. Now that you're an owner in the partnership, you still get some of the benefits of owning the property, like appreciation and cash flow and such, yet no management or landlording at all like you would have with a 1031 and with a 721 you get all these benefits across a greater number of properties and markets diversification because you're a fractional owner in the other properties that are in the partnership, not only your own, and when you eventually pass away, your shares are stepped up in basis and can be distributed equally to heirs and C It's surely easier for you to divide shares among, say, your three children, than it is to divide your 18 rental houses among three children Who are going to have different goals and varying degrees of financial savvy. So the 721, exchange is a great estate planning tool too. You will have this partnership that makes an offer to buy your property. You're exchanging them for partnership shares. There's a firm that does this called flock homes, and they have a certain Buy Box to be clear with the 721, exchange, you can basically trade your rentals for shares in a diversified, professionally managed Real Estate Fund. This means that you keep your hard earned equity defer capital gains and other taxes, and you still get access to steady income and long term appreciation without the hassle of landlord duties, and you can visit flockhomes.com/gre, and get a free valuation. Get an offer for your property, see if it fits their buy box and see how much they'll pay you. There's often no need to pay to fix up or stage the property for sale or pay agent commissions for a certain investor type. This really can be a rather life changing experience for you to liquidate some or all of your property have zero tax obligation and still enjoy income and appreciation. So again, what you can do is stop by flock homes.com/gre, that's F, l, O, C, K, homes.com/g, R, E, let's discuss the home building climate today.

Keith Weinhold 14:38

I'd like to bring in a premium Florida homebuilder guest to the show, Jim, because there has been more homebuilding in Florida such that some areas of the state have excess supply. And when you add that onto the fact that the hot pandemic migration to Florida has slowed such that home prices have made a rare dip in the state, that is why it. A timely topic. Jim, you're on GRE Welcome to the show. Keith, great to be here. Thanks for having me. Yeah, and we did the IRL thing in Colorado there a few weeks ago. That was great hanging out in person. You provide entry level new build homes, mostly in Central Florida. And these are properties that are conducive to real estate pays five ways. These are properties that investors chiefly buy as rentals. So just bigger picture, tell us about that overall experience over, say, the last five years, as the pandemic wound down,

Jim Sheils 15:35

yeah, as the pandemic wound down, obviously Florida had a lot of attention. Some of it, rightly so, some of it, I think a little more inflated and commercial attention getting thrown at it. And you know, the type of deals that you and I have always stayed away from were very popular in Florida. You know, we're talking really nice houses. Keith, beautiful, nice HOAs people got in in 2021 let's say, with those very low interest rates on a six or $700,000 home, but now they're realizing that it's not going up $100,000 a year as they thought. And when they try to sell it, well, people trying to buy in $700,000 home, they're not getting that low interest rate. And if these people try to hold it and rent it, well, it doesn't cash flow, so it breaks one of those rules. It's not putting money in people's pockets, taking it out. And so we're seeing there was a large distribution of those types of houses around Florida. And then there were some builders like us that really focused on what was the most needed, and that was workforce housing. Now workforce housing, though, Keith, as you know, a lot of the builders don't want to build it. Why? Let's be straight. It's because the margins are lower right. But as you know, with me and my partner Chris, it was always let's make less margin and do more volume. That was always our model, and that was the area of the market where we felt we could build it right, we could get it financed right, and we could manage it right to hit the five things. And so we're seeing today, post pandemic, there are still key markets where the population growth is still the highest, coming into Florida, the prices are still the lowest, and there is a shortage of this type of workforce housing.

Keith Weinhold 17:11

Yes, you've identified a geography within Florida that have some of these characteristics like you're talking about. Tell us more about that region.

Jim Sheils 17:20

Yeah, we call it the Ocala region, so Central Florida, just west of Orlando. Right now, for example, u haul does their U haul top markets rankings every year? So where are the most U haul trucks going to now, you don't want to be on their side where they're coming from, Keith, because that's obviously the opposite. But for the second year in a row, the greater Ocala area has been the number 1u haul destination place in the country. So there's still a ton of population growth going there. Central Florida, I'm not going to say it sat out the growth during the pandemic that a lot of areas of Florida did, but it was starting at such a low basis with such a small amount of attention that today, even when people say, oh gosh, like I just said, house is 600 700 800,000 we're building new construction single family homes for under 300,000 the 270s a lot of the time. And we're building duplexes sometimes for under 400,000 and a lot of our you know, investors coming from the west coast. Say, are these fully built? Are they? But again, Central Florida has had a great affordability. Remain intact. It has a large population going in. There is a ton of job resource just blowing up in the area. And as you know, these are the things we look for. So we bought a lot of lots there. I'm gonna give credit to my partner, Chris. He saw calla more than I did, and we bought a lot of lots there in 2020 so before all the rises. So we got into the land basis, right? So that means we can build them at a great price. Our land basis is low, and that obviously passes along to our clients. And again, Central Florida is a perfect match for our goal. Because, you know, our goal is workforce housing, that cash flows on day one. But also nothing wrong with fixer uppers. I own a lot. I used to do a lot, but the new construction seems to have a little bit more of a less involvement, which it seems like a lot of our clients want.

Keith Weinhold 19:15

That was really prescient, as it turned out, for your business partner, Chris there to gobble up a lot of that land in 2020 before prices went soaring. And this is one reason why you can do things like offer a duplex for less than 400k That's a new build, which has some people saying like, does that thing include a roof even? But it surely does. These are very good quality livable properties. And the reason I have you here, Jim is because you are rare. There are fewer builders today than there were in decades past, and also those that build to your point earlier. They only want to build higher end properties, not the more affordable ones that you offer. We'll get more details on your price points and what properties. Products you offer later. But yeah, we have more remodelers today and fewer builders. And though it's a few years old, I found it interesting that census statistics show us that between 2007 and 2022 there are 73% more remodelers and 21% fewer builders today.

Jim Sheils 20:22

Interesting. You know, Keith, I didn't know that, and that makes me scratch my head on like when you and I were in Colorado, we were talking about future needs, even with growth that occurred during the pandemic going all the way back to oh eight when a real shortage started to start, we are still at an estimated three to 5 million homes short in the US. It really perplexes me that the amount of builders like us will be going down and not actually entering the market.

Keith Weinhold 20:47

Now, among those that are building, though, much of that is concentrated in the South, as I think we know, there's a recent resi club compilation show that 59% of current single family home building is in the south, and 41% is everywhere else. And how do you define the South? That's basically Maryland down to Florida, all the way out to Texas and Oklahoma. So you are pretty rare in some ways. However, where you're building regionally, that's not a rarity there, but yeah, having more remodelers today and fewer home builders, that's probably the result of a lot of things. You know, for one thing, just land and construction costs becoming that much more expensive over the past five years.

Jim Sheils 21:05

Yeah, we've been lucky, too, as you know, Keith, you've been with us for a decade now. But yeah, and we transitioned a piece of our company where Sumitomo forestry, large Japanese group stepped in and acquired a piece of our property. That was a very exciting thing for all of us together, because we had done well, and, you know, started small and built up to a decent sized builder for Northeast Florida and then the rest of Florida. But now, with Sumitomo coming in again, they build 17,000 homes worldwide every year, between all of their builders. Now being a part of them, we get to use their national material accounts, so they get pricing just as good, if not better, than national home builders, and they let us do our thing, stick to our build to rent, working with investor clients. We're not retail buyer guys, really. We like working with our investors, but just getting those great discounts on materials, again, we're always looking to pass on savings to our clients. Of course, we got to make margins as well, but if we're getting in with deals like that, getting into the land right, and knowing the pinpointed areas to get into, we can get the best deal for everyone. And that's been a major part having such a big, successful partner like Sumitomo keep us healthy, viable and able to do things we could have not even dreamed of five years ago.

Keith Weinhold 22:47

Yes, that gives you more capital and more options. Another unusual aberration in the market that really centers on a lot of what you do is that this fact that and this was mentioned on the show last year for the first time in my life, existing homes cost more than new build homes. Existing homes at about 420k nationally, and new build homes about 392k part of the divergence there is probably builder price cuts. So tell us more about that.

Jim Sheils 23:14

I think the issue Heath is builders built for largest spreads, and people bought very emotionally. I think you're to give you a compliment a very unemotional real estate buyer. You're not looking at, oh, this is a very nice, you know, extra his and hers porcelain sink. And we're looking at fundamental numbers a good, solid property. And I think what's caused a lot of that is people did the opposite. Builders were looking for the largest margin they could get, which was on those types of properties. And then buyers were looking very emotionally, and they were told, Hey, this is going to go up 50 to $100,000 a year. So just sit there and hold on, sure you'll lose $1,500 a month, but don't worry about it. You'll make up for that every year. And obviously we're not seeing that's true. They could have really used your class about the five ways to get paid in real estate. And I think that that's what's doing it. And this is what builders do. I mean, everyone's in a business, and a lot of builders just focus on the largest margin. Now that's eating them up now, because those types of properties are not in demand. To build them on spec would be very dangerous, but you can see that that worked for a short term. We're very glad we went to the low margin workforce housing model, because I see that falling out of favor almost never even in Oh 809, Keith, when I was in the remodel game, a lot of the properties that were new construction coming out that time they were affordable, still did very well.

Keith Weinhold 24:42

We're talking with a premium Florida homebuilder today, because they offer affordable properties that make sense for investors. But what about the demand? Where is that going to come from? Where is that going to be? And that's what's happening with the renter segment. We'll talk more about that when we. Come back. You're listening to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold,

Keith Weinhold 25:03

flock homes helps you retire from real estate and landlording, whether it's one problem, property or your whole portfolio through a 721, exchange, deferring your capital gains tax and depreciation recapture, it's a strategy long used by the ultra wealthy. Now Mom and Pop landlords can 721, the residential real estate request your initial valuation, see if your properties [email protected] slash GRE, that's F, l, O, C, K, homes.com/gre.

Keith Weinhold 25:39

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Keith Weinhold 26:51

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com

Ken McElroy 27:26

this is Rich Dad advisor, Ken McElroy. Listen to get rich education with Keith whitehold, and don't twitch your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 27:40

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're talking with Jim a premium Florida homebuilder here at such an interesting time in the cycle, since supply is up in some parts of Florida, Jim and his team has strategically chosen a place that is still fueling a lot of net in migration in Central Florida, and that's where the rental demand needs to come from as well. Now nationally, we've seen the homeownership rate fall over about the past year, from near 66% to near 65% that does not sound like much, but a 1% shift means there are 1.3 million new renters in just the past year. So with that in mind, and the fact that this low affordability for home buying means that people need to rent or stay renters longer, provides some of the Sustainable demand. So tell us more about the rental demand in Central Florida.

Jim Sheils 28:39

Yeah, you know, when we first went out there about a decade ago, Keith, I think it was 82 or 83% of all properties out there were owner occupied, which means it was a very lopsided amount of existing rental property available. And this is before the curve of population growth really took off. But when Chris and I went out there and we were assessing that small percentage of rental property that was out there. Gosh, it was old and kind of beat up. There was not a lot like the new construction that was available. So when we brought in new construction, we saw just the competition. Was hard to compete with us. You know, when it was an older, not so nice taking care of we came in and we saw a jump from, you know, doing older houses ourselves, you know, a person would stay about 13 months. But for the new construction in Central Florida, we've seen a jump to about three years. So that's really positive. People get into a new construction property they don't want to leave, whether that's half of a duplex or a single family. The duplexes are interesting because we're able to build those on infill lots and existing single family home neighborhoods, so a person who doesn't want to live in an apartment can live there, have their own yard, and they couldn't afford the whole single family, but to have half of a single family basically what a duplex is. It makes a big difference, and the people are in great demand of rental in Central Florida there because of exactly why. I said, Keith, the job. Course, continues to grow in Central Florida, extremely strong. The business incentives to come into the area by the local municipality is very, very good. So here's something interesting, Keith, the average salary in Ocala is about 72,000 and the average home price is about 298,000 that is a very healthy affordability one. Yeah, very, very good. And so that job source continues to pay very well. And we've talked about just the logistics centers and the Equestrian Center. That's the largest in the world. Now the villages are just 25 miles south. So Ocala becomes a bedroom community, and that is the second largest retirement community and growing in the US. So there's a lot of job source that allows people to live there at a good affordability. And so that combination of affordability with this extending job source has been really, really good for the Ocala region.

Keith Weinhold 30:59

It's been said that the only place you get money is from other people, and we're talking about your renters in this case. So oftentimes these renters, they had their sense of privacy there, like, for example, do the duplexes even have fenced backyards for each individual side,

Jim Sheils 31:17

depending on where they are? We will. Other times it hasn't been a requirement. We've done lots of surveys to see is it worth the price point to put in full fencing in certain areas. It can be in a lot of areas. Keith, they're just so excited with the price point not having to move into an apartment building that it hasn't even been warranted or necessary.

Keith Weinhold 31:38

Yeah. So we're talking about livability characteristics here, because oftentimes new build rental property results in a higher tenant stay that longer duration, because they're the first person that have ever lived there, and it's also difficult for them to go out and improve their living situation unless they become a home buyer, and that's difficult to do today. Tell us more about the incentives and the property types and so on, because there really are some pretty exciting ones.

Jim Sheils 32:09

One of the best things about Central Florida, Keith, combined with new construction, is insurance costs. Now you and I have laughed about the blanketed statement where you said, oh my goodness, you cannot get insurance in Florida. You can't get property insurance in Florida, or it's doubled, tripled, gone up 7x that is a true statement on certain properties. If you're buying older properties from the 1950s that are within a half mile of the beach on low lying ground, but new construction properties far away from the beach, that is a totally different things. So again, being in Central Florida, where we are, a lot of people think, oh, to insure a single family home there, that's going to be several $100 a month, when actually, you know, and you've seen a lot of our performer quotes, our insurance companies are getting a single family home done for about $65 a month on average, full coverage. And that's the advantage of new construction. Insurance companies are all about risk. They analyze risk. When you're on a new construction property built on higher ground away from the beach, they like that, and they do that a duplex. You're looking at about $100 a month. So incentive wise, we've really searched to team up with great insurance companies that get the best rates full coverage. And again, we surprise people when they say, Oh man, I thought there would be a whole nother zero at that monthly cost. And these are actual quotes, as you know, with working with a lot of GRE people. So that's one great thing, another great thing, Keith, that happened when we joined forces with Sumitomo. And again, Sumitomo 320, years old, one of the biggest powerhouses out of Asia, Warren Buffett, is very heavily invested in another one of the conglomerates, not the housing one we do, but he's very involved in one of their other companies. And when they came aboard, you know, we have no bank debt for a builder, which is rare. And since we have such a healthy balance sheet, we're actually able to work deals with mortgage companies where we'll do what's called builder forward commitments, Keith, and that means we will pre buy mortgages for our clients, for the homes we're building, and we will pass that savings along. So right now, you know, if an investment property in a duplex might be an average of 7% for anyone who walks in off the street to a bank. Right now, our most popular rate program for our investors, for single family or duplexes, is 3.75 Gosh. So as you know, for your five ways, if we want to get cash flow, there's a big difference. Yeah, we're getting affordable housing. But if the rate is over 7% compared to 375 that could eat up the cash flow with us being able to have this power to buy large tranches of money and pass it along and lock our people in again, an average right now at 3.75 is our most popular program, and that's long term money, then we're able to get that cash flow right off the bat. And you and I know how important that is

Keith Weinhold 34:50

for this super attractive 3.75% long term mortgage rate on single family homes and duplexes. How? Much does the buyer have to come out of pocket at the closing table to buy that down themselves? And how much do you the builder participate in that buy down?

Jim Sheils 35:07

You know, it depends Keith at different times, because there is a little bit of a fluctuation. Sometimes it can be as low as zero points or just one origination point to bring it in. It does vary. And also, if people say, hey, I really don't want to bring in any points. Well, that's fine. You know, if you don't want to walk in zero to 2% points for that, you can also just raise your rate up to four and a quarter and probably walk in nothing. So there's different things that we can do, but the goal of it is to have us have the brunt of it. And what I can tell you is, if the average person walked into a bank, and a bank wouldn't do this anyway. It's only for, again, builders with a certain size, but if you went into a bank right now and said, I'd like to buy my rate down to 3.75 the average Keith that this would cost a person off the street going into a bank would be 12 to 15% banks wouldn't even do it for an individual. But that's about the estimates when you look at it. So again, volume has privileged. The fact we're able to buy it down. It does cost us a good amount of money, but we're all able to save since we're kind of working together to buy these larger tranches. And again, the need of any investment for buying down the rate from the clients is very minimal.

Keith Weinhold 36:18

Tell us more about the property types, new build single family homes, new build duplexes.

Jim Sheils 36:23

You know, single family and duplexes are our main focus in 2026 for Central Florida, we've done the research. They're very high in demand. They rent quickly, and they rent long term to produce cash flow. Our average single family home under 300,000 we're aiming to after expense, make about $300 cash flow. Our duplexes should be about twice that amount, about just under $600 a month, or just over in cash flow. And then again, the prices are ranging from about 395, to 420, for a duplex. Again, these are in workforce areas where we're doing great, scattered lots. Scattered lot means there's already existing homes around. We like to go to an area where there's good a fundamental balance of homeowners and renters. So there's retail buyers that have bought their first home, and we will place our rentals in between them, whether it's a single family or a duplex.

Keith Weinhold 37:13

We sure don't need to do a complete audio pro forma here, but those cash flow amounts something near $300 for a single family home, and about double that for a duplex. Is that using, you know, a bought down rate to about 4% and some of these other inputs you're talking about, like low insurance costs and a certain property tax rate, can you tell us about that?

Jim Sheils 37:35

Yeah, property tax rate is property tax rate. We can get pretty dang close on property taxes, you know, based on millage and get that down. But when we do our performers, we absolutely go off of, you know, our average rate to be the 375, to four and a quarter. And then when GRE clients look at our performer, and they look at the insurance cost, that's an actual quote from one of our insurance companies that has insured hundreds and hundreds of these properties. Not a guess, yeah, so they know what they're doing. So yeah, those would be the assumptions made in there, and that's what we're basically getting on a week in, week out basis.

Keith Weinhold 38:09

That is really attractive as we're talking about new build. I imagine there is some sort of builder warranty as well.

Jim Sheils 38:16

There's a state mandated 210 warranty. 210 warranty is something we could talk probably a whole episode on Keith. But for what's good for people to know, basically what that means, you get two years coverage on the small stuff and 10 years coverage on the big structural stuff. And so that's why I like new construction. You know what? I used to personally just buy my own fixer up Return key properties from other people. I could get a one year warranty, and that's the best that really can be done. Now with new construction, we've gone from, you know, with our fixer upper homes, able to do a one year warranty, which is good at something. But now with new construction, we can do a 210 warranty, big difference, and also really helps the safety score of issues if they came up.

Keith Weinhold 38:59

We were talking about new build property, and we tend to project relatively low maintenance and repair costs for an obvious reason, maybe your long term vacancy rate could very well be lower as well, due to my earlier point about a tenant wanting to stay there for a long time, because it's hard for them to improve their living situation unless they went out and bought their own place. And you have the low insurance rates, and you have the low mortgage rates, all contributing to positive cash flow on a new build property. And we think about that tenant and what gets the tenant excited? We start to think about some of those amenities. So tell us about what amenities are offered, including inside, in the kitchen and so on.

Jim Sheils 39:38

Jim, yeah, great question, Keith. We've really gotten a great recipe for success for that. You know, we've been doing this a little over a decade now, and so you're always tweaking your build model. What do people like? What do they not like? What's good for durability? Let's look at maintenance and repairs. Let's look at turn costs. So our goal is always the dual focus. That's what looks good. And what lasts really well, yeah, because you want durability. When you have tenants, you want it to look good, so you sell it down the road, 510, years to a first time homebuyer, it looks great. You can sell it. But durability wise, you don't want a lot of extra expenses or maintenance and repairs. So we go durability. So what we found a couple of things. I always joke about this. I do not like the word carpet, Keith, that is a terrible swear word in real estate investing, I can tell you right now, if I could go back and this is not, you know, owning hundreds of rentals, if I could not have done carpet and just reversed it to like vinyl plank flooring, like we do now, or even tile, which was more, I probably would have been able to buy three or four of our duplexes cash with the amount of money, and that is not an exaggeration. So we do not do carpet. First of all, it seems like trends are changing. It's not in favor right now. So we do vinyl plank flooring, which looks really nice, almost like wood floors, super durable, though, for a young family that's going to be tenant occupied in your property and running around on it. That's great. Kitchen wise, again, we don't sell retail really. We like to work with investors, but down the road, our investor might want to sell to a retail buyer. So we know, you know, from our old fix and flip days of the FHA buyers, the kitchen's got a pop. So we always do, you know, we don't do the white appliances, which you know would save you quite a bit of money, and save us quite a bit of money. We do stainless steel appliances. We do all new cabinetry, you know, kind of the latest, nicer cabinetry, a little bit of an upgrade. And then, you know, butcher block countertops, those are going to wear in about a year or two. Keith, it feels really good to spend that smaller amount, you know. But we, we like to do the more durable, nice looking countertops, you know, that are, you know, just so much more esthetically pleasing and actually durable as well. Same thing in the bathrooms. A lot of new builders will do shower kit, which not a problem if you're saving money on a rehab, you know, but we would rather do tile, bring in the extra subcontractors to give tile, and then in the master we do the dual sinks, which this might sound like little stuff, Keith, but these are the micro movements that help get a tenant in quicker, stay longer and more rent. So we're always trying to do these extra things in the granite countertops, both in the kitchens and in the bathrooms. Those cost more upfront, but we see for long term of tenant we see, for the amount of rent we get, and for resale ability, because a lot of people don't think about that. You know what? In seven years you want to sell one of these properties? Well, it's a seven year old roof, it's seven year old plumbing, you're still in a great spot for an FHA buyer. And that esthetically pleasing flooring, bathrooms, kitchens. That allows an easier sale for them, because we want to look all the way around, not just a rental. I like to hold long term, but if you want to sell in five to 10 years, that's a very valid strategy.

Keith Weinhold 42:48

I like carpet in my own home, but not rentals. But what you're sharing with us, Jim, this is absolute gold that's been brought to you through experience. This over improvement versus under improvement line in rentals, and it really has a lot of balance between durability and price. These are the sort of things that really matter, but you are selling predominantly to individual investors, a lot of mom and pop investors. Why don't you make more sales to the retail, owner occupied market, or to institutional investors, even though that might be cracked down upon now. But why don't you sell to those parties?

Jim Sheils 43:26

Yeah, you know Keith, I did a lot of fix and flip to FHA buyers, and I'm an investor. I really like working with investors. So when this all really went back to is 2009 I had a lot of investors. I was in Northeast Florida. The deal flow was incredible. And I just had a lot of investors, you know, through my different networks and Masterminds, like, where you and I have met, and said, Hey, you're getting great deals in Northeast Florida. Could you help put some together for me? And so I had done quite a few fix and flips to retail buyers, and it just kind of hot on me, you know, way back then, like, Wow. I like working with investors. I like building portfolios. I also like the fact that when I'm normally building a portfolio for an investor, well, they hang out with other investors, and they're not looking to buy one property over the next five years. They're looking to buy five to eight properties over the next five years. great point. And so we just saw it as you gotta like who you work with, right? And nothing against first time homebuyers. But when I was rehabbing houses and selling them, golly, that was a lot of work. And then could be persnickety. Yeah, very persnickety. And so when Chris and I teamed up about 10 years ago, we had both gone through the same kind of aha, like going, Yeah, it seems great, but you could sell for more to a retail buyer. But again, like I go back to even the type of property we build, we'd rather do a volume with investors. Be a builder, buy investors for investors, and work that way. And I think it suits me. I think I would have probably hung up my shoes a long time ago if I was. Working with the amount of properties we've done with retail buyers compared to investors, honestly, and so I think it was just kind of, it was a preference, really, that made sense

Keith Weinhold 45:09

to your point. Investors buy multiple properties, and that way there are fewer parties to deal with. And investors tend to be less emotional than those more persnickety, owner occupied buyers. Well, Jim, you make it easy for investors. Besides all these incentives, you also offer an in house management solution for these investors, often that tend to be out of state. Well, Jim, before I ask you, if you have any closing thoughts, would you the listener like to ask Jim any question directly? Well, you can, because I have a great event to tell you about next Thursday, the 19th, at 8pm eastern Jim here and GRE investment coach, Naresh will co host a live webinar for Central Florida new build income property. In fact, Jim, I think you know Naresh longer than I have, as it turns out, but this event is free, and you the listener are invited. We've had between 250 and 550 registrants for our past webinars. Not all of them attend live. So the benefit of you attending live is that you can have any of your questions answered by either Naresh or Jim in real time, and besides learning about the Central Florida market and more about home building, you are going to see available new build income property, real addresses with some of these rather grand incentives that we've talked about here, you might end up with a long term rate of about 4% again, it is Thursday, the 19th at 8pm Eastern. Sign up is open now at grewebinars.com that's grewebinars.com Any final thoughts here, Jim, for this great event coming up next week?

Jim Sheils 46:52

I think we're going to dig a little deeper. Obviously, this is a conversation that was great, but moves pretty quickly when we talk next week, we're going to be able to dig into more of the fundamentals, some of the stats, and just get underneath the hood of why Central Florida is making so much sense, and just some of the rising stars that we're seeing there that we're very excited to be a part of.

Keith Weinhold 47:13

You've helped our listeners for close to 10 years now. It's been an informative chat as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.

Jim Sheils 47:21

Thanks for having me, Keith.

Keith Weinhold 47:27

Yeah, like our guest touched on Ocala, Florida now has national recognition as the fastest growing city in America, and that's for the second year in a row. According to a new U haul report, Florida is, of course, a rather landlord friendly state. In fact, Florida is the first state to enact a law that allows law enforcement to immediately remove squatters, distinguishing them from legal tenants. Now here's what's interesting and why I've identified this opportunity if Florida prices dipped because people were leaving now, that could be a red flag, because population loss is like gravity. Once it starts falling, it is hard to escape. But that's not what's happening. Instead, what we're seeing is a temporary overbuild hangover. Builders got ambitious. We're in a brief period where supply outran demand and prices softened. That's not decay. That's a sale rack. Any vacant homes are not stranded. They're being absorbed by Florida's still growing population, which has now increased every single decade since its first census count, back in the year 1830 back in 1830 there were about 35,000 residents in the whole state. Isn't that amazing today? North of 24 million, that is 700x population growth in almost 200 years, and it's still growing. That kind of trend doesn't reverse because a few builders over ordered inventory here at GRE this made us target and find in opportunity. This isn't an accident. Central Florida is this year's most compelling. Housing market in that region, Central Florida, is growing faster than the rest of the state at large, and it really sits in the sweet spot of this temporary imbalance. One long established builder overbuilt and now they're motivated. They know what investors want. So, for example, they don't build swimming pools with their homes. They also offer property tours, and over 90% of their tour attendees buy property. They're willing to offer terrific incentives at our upcoming GRE live webinar, like we touched on new build single family rentals, 270k and up duplexes, three. 95 to 420, long term mortgage rates as low as 3.75% you get low insurance rates since they're inland and new build positive cash flow and a builder warranty at the event. You're going to learn all about the growth drivers in Central Florida, why so many renters are moving there and see available properties. This benefits anyone looking for a clear, practical view of current real estate conditions. Joining live does matter, since you can have those questions answered in real time, not after the opportunity has moved on, you are invited for next Thursday, the 19th, at 8p m Eastern. This one is worth circling, not because it's flashy, because it's timed right. Sign up is open now @grewebinars.com that's gre webinars.com. Until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 5 51:00

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 51:29

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com

Keith shares how a recent trip to Colorado Springs and a changing commission landscape reveal what really matters for real estate investors now

From there, the show dives into the three levers investors truly control—leverage, operations, and relationships—before welcoming lender Caeli Ridge to break down the major mortgage options for investors.

You'll hear how different loan types fit different strategies: from your first conventional "golden ticket" loans, to DSCR loans based on property income, to short-term fix-and-flip and bridge loans that prioritize speed and flexibility.

The episode then moves into how more advanced investors can scale beyond 10 doors, navigate debt-to-income and tax strategy, and even approach financing for short-term rentals—all while highlighting why having the right lending partner and long-term plan can make a big difference to your results.

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Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold with new ways to think about your life through goals momentum in the real estate market. Then learn about various mortgage loan types, conventional DSCR, fix and flip, bridge loans, short term rental loans and more. Knowing which loans to use can save you millions and learn the fatal mortgage mistakes you must avoid today on get rich education.

Corey Coates 0:29

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads and 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Speaker 1 1:14

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:30

Welcome to GRE from Winnebago, Minnesota to Winnipeg, Manitoba, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education, the voice of real estate investing since 2014 before we get into the mortgage discussion, where we'll discuss five or 10 different investor loan types and their various pros and cons, which could save you millions over the course of your life. I shared with you that I traveled to Colorado A couple weeks ago, for a goals retreat hosted by the real estate guys, top notch event, I spent extra time there in Colorado Springs, because I find it really livable, and I spent five hours with a local realtor there, one day out and about visiting properties in the area I'm potentially looking for a home or a second home. And by the way, how is this for a price range? The realtor wanted to know what my Buy Box is, and since I'm just learning the Colorado Springs market, I told him I'm willing to spend between 400k and 1.2 million on the property, yeah, pretty wide range, a mile wide. Fortunately, my other Buy Box criteria are more narrow and specific, and I have got to say, I'm surprised at how low the area's home prices are. I thought they'd be higher. Interestingly, before touring homes, my buyer agent wanted me to sign a six month exclusive representation agreement. Fair enough, that's standard stuff. It was on the agreement, though, that I as the buyer pay a 3% commission up on the purchase, and the seller would presumably pay the other 3% to make up that total 6% commission for the agent compensation. Well, historically, the seller paid the entire 6% and this, of course, goes back to the NAR settlement, and that ruling that became effective in August of 2024 you probably remember this, and I talked about it on the show back then, and how it's not really that big of a deal, especially to investors like us, because at GRE marketplace and with our GRE investment coaching, it's a direct model. There's zero commission on either side, and then you, in turn, get some of those savings, but out in the larger world and in the owner occupant world. Well, that rule change that started a year and a half ago. It means that sellers are no longer required to pay the buyer's agent. Instead, the fee is now negotiable between buyers and their agent. The other change is that property listings no longer display the buyer agent's commission offer. But here's what's interesting in practice, and what really ends up happening in the end, in most cases, is that the seller still pays the full commission and compensates both agents that full 6% sometimes it's 5% instead of six buyers and buyer agents, they still operate under the seller pays. And that's largely because that has just been the norm. It's what's seemingly always been done. It's what buyers are used to. And the reason that that often persists. Is because the seller is the party in the transaction that has that thick equity in the property, deep equity, and buyers are the ones often just trying to scrape together whatever they can for a down payment and closing costs. Buyers are not going to be able to come up with another 15k for an agent commission when they're buying a 500k property, that's 3% especially today, this is true because American homeowners the seller then still have record equity positions of about 300k an all time high. Nearly half of mortgaged homes are considered equity rich. What does equity rich mean? It means that the loan balance is less than half of the home's value, yeah, the seller has the means to pay the full commission. So the point is, in practice, the seller, yeah, still pays that full five to 6% commission in the overwhelming majority of cases, and the buyer pays nothing. And if that does change, it's going to take a long time. You know, a lot of these evanescent real estate stories that people think are going to have some seismic impact. It rarely does, like this erstwhile NAR ruling or the 50 year mortgage proposal or banning big institutions for buying more single family rentals. You know, this stuff is like one little baseball sized asteroid striking an entire planet. I mean, it's like a barely discernible impact. Real estate is anchored in one place like Jabba the Hut. It is solid. These stories are interesting, but they're not impactful.

Keith Weinhold 6:52

Instead, I've mentioned it before. What are three things you control in real estate that really matter. And these are evergreen things. First, it's, how many dollars are you leveraging? That's where your wealth is going to come from. In fact, we're going to discuss that today with mortgage loan types. Second, what's the efficiency of operations on your existing properties? And thirdly, what is the quality of your relationships? And actually, we're addressing the third one today too, talking to a lender that you could make part of your team. You can control these three things. They're unyielding, they're evergreen, they're long term, and they all have gratitas and impact those three things, leverage operations and relationships. Now my agent drops me off and picks me up from my hotel here at the Broadmoor in Colorado Springs. This was also the event hotel for the goals retreat. I just extended my stay to hang out in the area. Look at real estate, do some climbing on Pikes Peak. Pro tip for you on hotel room rates, talk to a human being before I booked my stay, I called the front desk and asked them if they could extend the attractive event room rate to more nights on my extended stay. And they agreed. You might have heard of the Broadmoor. It is well known. It's been here for more than 100 years, and it is such a fine place to stay. Let me tell you about this special piece of real estate. In fact, I've thought it through, and I will now hereby proclaim that it is the finest us hotel experience that I've ever had in my life. I say us because I stayed at an amazing place in Dubai. But what makes the Broadmoor stand alone? It's the details and the service. A lot of hotels are nice, but this is on a different level. And I don't say this to brag, and this is because you probably can afford to stay here, yeah, like I have. You might have paid more elsewhere in your life for a lesser hotel, although I am here in the low seasons. Okay, now, sure, you've got views of the Rockies and a man made lake and waterfall and even a beautiful chandelier in my hotel room. The thing that sets it apart, though, is you have this service that feels old world and not corporate. That's what makes the difference. The Broadmoor is horse themed, since horses are a symbol of the American West. There are about 800 rooms here. It's kind of like a self contained adult Disneyland championship golf courses, a world class spa, even an outdoor lap swimming pool like that has lanes that I swam in one morning for. Fine dining, casual dining, access to hiking, fly fishing, even falconry, zip lines, tennis, pickleball pools. Take the cog railway to the Pikes Peak, Summit. Okay. Now, other nice hotels have attractions that are sort of like that, but when I rave about the service, it's the little things they are knocking on my door before 10am to come in and clean the room. And you know how so commonly, when you first check into your hotel room and you look in the closet, there are not enough clothing hangers, and they're all like stupidly mismatched. These all match. They're all nice wood, and there are plenty of them. So I'm talking about these details. I'm telling you. I had dinner at one of the broadmoor's restaurants the other night. I just happened to take a close look at the tag on the napkin. Sure enough, it is made in Italy. I mean, jeez, no detail is overlooked at this stellar place. In fact, here's what I'll do. You know, I'll just completely stop my Colorado Springs home search right now. Instead, I'm going to stop down by the Broadmoor front desk, tell him to give me some moving boxes, because I'm moving into the Broadmoor and I'll be here for the next decade. Start forwarding my mail here and everything. And hey, at least I was courteous enough to give them notice. I can't stay here too long, or my standards will be rising faster than my net worth. Yeah, yeah. Can't go to sleep with a mint on your pillow every night, I suppose.

Keith Weinhold 11:38

Now, the reason I came here now is to attend that aforementioned goals retreat, and let me take all the time and all the resources that I put into being here and distill them into just a few of the most salient takeaways for you. Goals should be smart, strategic, measurable, actionable, relevant and time based, they must be written down. Now, how would you describe yourself to somebody else that didn't know who you were? Write that down next. What do you think your reputation is? How would others describe you? Write that down now that you can see how you describe yourself and how others describe you, you can see that there's a gap there. That gap is what you need to work on. I learned that goal should be written in the present tense, not the future tense. I did not know that before. For example, say it is January 1, 2035, and I own $5 million in rental property. That's an example of how you would do that. So take future events and write them in the present tense. Other questions at the goals retreat that got really introspective are, what are you really going to do with your life? And write down that answer. Sheesh, that is tough. And if you think that's a hard question for you to ask of yourself, the next one is even harder. It's simply why? Why is that where you're going with your life? And then write that down? I mean, would you answer questions like this for yourself? And you really think about it, that can occupy a new segment of your entire headspace. It is a big cognitive load, and a last one to leave you with is to dream not just big, but gigantic. Get it out there, write down a dream that interests you, but it's so grandiose that you're actually embarrassed to tell someone about this stretch dream, for example, for me, it's the first person to walk on another planet. No human has ever done that, and this would most likely happen on Mars. See, this is so grand that is sort of embarrassing for me to even share that with you. It almost makes you sound Loony, like I would have to learn so many new skills to travel to and walk on Mars. But you should write down a bunch of other goals too. You're sort of brainstorming on goals, attainable goals. Recall that is the A in the SMART goals acronym, you want to write down a bunch of attainable ones, not just that stretch one. So for attainable ones, one of them is for me to become the highest man on earth. To give you an example. And I attempted that goal two years ago, and I failed. I told you about that at that time. But see now, compared to my embarrassing stretch goal of walking on Mars, the highest man on earth feels attainable, I know what it takes to achieve it, and it's worth doing, ah, but it's a grind to get there, yet it would be worth it. Those are some quick take. Ways from the real estate guys goals retreat while on stage the event host Robert helms he took a minute respite from the goals material, and he recognized the fact that, as he calls it, the four OG real estate podcasters are all in the same room. One of them is helms himself, and now I feel like the other three are all older and doing it longer than me. I was one of the four that he mentioned. But you know, there is only one podcast that was mentioned from stage, and that is that Robert helms told the audience that they should be listening to the get rich education podcast. That was a nice thing to say, and he is always a gracious giver.

Keith Weinhold 15:45

Next, we're talking about four major loan types, conventional DSCR, fix and flip and then bridge loans. When we discuss the first two parts of it could sound repetitive, but you'll see why we do this, because then you'll be able to compare it to nichey loan types that we discuss, for example, the speed of a bridge loan, where you can get funded in just one week, compared to a slower conventional loan. The mortgage landscape changes. I still remember how in 2012 we had still somewhat freshly emerged from the global financial crisis, and back then, you could only get four conventional loans, four rental properties, not 10 like you can today, 20 married. So get your loans while you can, you probably won't always be able to get 10 loans. We'll start with loan types that are more for beginners, and then we'll get to advanced material. Let's welcome back one of our favorite recurring guests.

Keith Weinhold 16:54

You can make millions more throughout your life by understanding mortgage loans. This is key, and today it's the return of the woman that's created more financial freedom through real estate than any other lender in the entire nation, because she's the president of ridge lender group. Hey, it's time for a big welcome back to the incomparable, yet somehow still so approachable Chaley Ridge

Caeli Ridge 17:16

my Keith, thank you for having me. I love being here. I love what you're doing. It's my pleasure, sir.

Keith Weinhold 17:23

And our followers, our listeners, have been approaching you since 2015 you're one of the longest running guests, truly one of the OGS around here at GRE and now Caeli, before we discuss loan types. You know, we don't really talk politics on this show rather policies, and we're in the midst of a presidential administration that often, in the name of the word affordability, is trying to supremely shake things up in the housing market. Help us dissect what matters and what won't.

Caeli Ridge 17:58

I have found that at least as it relates to current administration, whoever that might be, I wait for the buzzwords or the taglines to become the actual policy. Like you said, That's a good point in this case. You know, you've got things floating around, like the 50 year mortgage cutting off the hedge fund guys and that kind of thing. Whether or not, those things come to fruition. I'm happy to give my opinion on them. I do not think that it's going to move the needle much for the people that you and I serve with regard to I mean, just taking them one at a time, I don't think that the 50 year is going to come to fruition. Just first and foremost, if it did do, I think it would be a good idea for a homeowner, probably not, but for an investor, maybe if there's some way that we can keep our payment lower, given the maturity date of a mortgage for an investment property is usually about five years. I mean, I know that this is a 30 year fixed mortgage, but statistically speaking, the average shelf life of a non owner occupied mortgage is about five years. So getting a 50 year amortization, if that were going to reduce the payment, I don't think is a bad thing for an investor, however, and this may get a little bit technical for the listeners, so I apologize in advance if we were to go to a 50 Year am the adjustments, something called, and you and I have talked about this before, something called an llpa, that stands for loan level price adjustment, I think would be such that it could end up defeating the purpose of having the longer term amortization, because I think the interest rates would be higher and I think they may offset so that was a long way to say. One, I don't think it's going to happen. I don't think it's actually going to get to its final resting place. And two, would it be a good idea for investors, yeah, I think it would be worth considering if it kept the payment lower. Okay, that's that as the other piece to cutting off the hedge funds, the big, you know, BlackRock, some of the big players, and giving them access to the residential housing and first right of infusion or etc, because they've got such deep pockets. You. It's such a small amount to what our individual investors are going to have access to that I don't think that that moves the needle either. So I don't know if I'm answering the question, except to say anything that they're going to tout, I would wait for it to actually become written in stone and pass by the rest of the powers that be before I would get excited about or concerned about any of it.

Keith Weinhold 20:21

This is pretty parallel with what I've been telling our listeners. All these things seem to make splashy news, but I haven't seen anything that's going to make a deep impact yet, whether it's the 50 year mortgage, which probably won't even come to fruition, or if it's doing these mortgage bond buy downs in order to bring more liquidity into the market and bring rates down, or if it sees any of these other things being discussed with these institutional investors, since they already own such a smaller proportion of the housing market than a lot of people think, we'll discuss seasoned real estate investors and their loans shortly, but first for newer real estate investors, you Know, chili, I kind of think of four or more loan types that a beginner should be familiar with. I think of conventional loans, dscrs, fix and flips and then bridge loans, the first one with conventional loans. What are the basics that someone should know?

Caeli Ridge 21:17

So first of all, you should know that there are 10 of these. We call them the golden tickets. I'm pretty sure I coined this, okay, 100 years ago, the golden ticket. We call the conventional aka Fannie Freddie, aka agency. They go by different names, but they all mean the same thing. We call them the golden tickets because it's the highest leverage and typically at the lowest interest rate you can find. Now I do have a hook in our conversation today about that. I'll get we'll get to it. There are 10 of these per qualified individual. So one of the first things that I would tell somebody is, is that if they are a partnership or a husband and wife team, you want to make sure to keep the debt obligation separate, because if you want to maximize these golden tickets, let's just say it's a husband and wife team. You each have, per qualification access to 10, and that includes a primary residence. In fact, let me just take a quick second and define what counts in the 10, because some people get this wrong. So the 10 golden tickets are counted by any residential property, single family, up to four Plex that has a loan on it, where the loan is in the individual name or personally guaranteed by the individual. That's where people get tied up. So if they went out and got a kind of more of a commercial type loan, that was in an LLC name, for example, but they signed a personal guarantee, per Fannie Freddie guidelines, that particular mortgage is going to count against the 10. So those would be some of the first pieces of news or detail I would give them about conventional

Keith Weinhold 22:40

for married couples, don't take ownership in both the husband and wife's name, either the husband or the wife. That way, you can get to 20 rather than 10. And yes, you do have to be mindful that your primary residence does count in that 10 or 20, whatever it might be. Anything else quickly with conventional loans, LTVs so on,

Caeli Ridge 23:01

yeah, LTV can go to 85% loan to value. So you get a little bit extra than you're going to get in some of the other loan product types. It will have PMI, private mortgage insurance, anything over 80% LTV will always have PMI on a more conforming, conventional basis. So keep that in mind. But the factor is pretty low. I would encourage people that are looking to stretch the almighty dollar. Do the math. Look at the 85 with PMI against, say, an 80% and see what are you giving up versus what you're getting. And then qualification stuff, you guys, my dumb joke, it's Keith's favorite. I'm sure vials of blood and DNA samples are sort of required for the Fannie Freddie loans. So just be prepared to supply or submit us the tax returns and pay stubs and bank statements and and all that stuff,

Keith Weinhold 23:44

you'll feel like you're getting fingerprinted almost for a conventional loan qualification. And the second one that I brought up DSCR loans, that's short for debt service coverage ratio. And these mortgages are pretty standard for rental properties. They're underwritten based on a property's income potential. So you know, the way I think of dscrs Chaley from the lender's perspective, is that sustainable cash flow is what matters. The rent has got to support the property's monthly mortgage payments. So we talked to us more about dscrs.

Caeli Ridge 24:15

Yeah, I love this product, and this is for somebody that either can't fit into the conventional Fannie Freddie box, or maybe they've exhausted their golden tickets and they're graduating and moving on. This is a great option that will reduce the amount of vials of blood and DNA samples that you're going to have to submit. It still provides for a 30 year fixed mortgage. The leverage is roughly the same, 80% in most cases, on a purchase. And to your point, the gross income divided by the principal, interest, taxes, insurance and Hoa, if it's applicable, is the simple formula, the easy method I'll give people, just to kind of solidify that math, is that if the gross rents were $1,000 a month, and if the PI TI was $1,000 a month, when you divide that, your debt service is 1.0 Now you can go as low, believe it or not, as low as a point seven, five, DSCR, they have those available be ready for the interest rate to get a little hair on it. Okay, it's going to be higher than what the 1.0 and above is going to be. But you can go as low as point seven, five, those are going to be for the investors that have found a property, maybe in distress, and they cannot show the current market value rent, perhaps, and it's on the low end. So you can still get that done at point seven, five, just be ready for a higher interest rate.

Keith Weinhold 25:30

So the DSCR loan an alternative for you, which might be especially useful, like Chaley touched on, if you've already exhausted your 10 golden ticket. Fannie Freddie loans, a DSCR of 1.2 for example, means that your rent income needs to exceed your principal, interest, taxes and insurance payment by 20% or more. That's what we're talking about here. And then Chile, those were more of loans for the buy and hold type of investor. Tell us about fix and flip loans.

Caeli Ridge 26:03

Yeah. So these are shorter term loan that will allow you to include not just the purchase of the property, but also some renovation or rehab money if you need that. And we're going to be looking at an ARV after repair value. So you've got a purchase price, you've got your renovation or scope of work budget. And then we're looking for an ARV with the ARV to be somewhere around 75% so what that means, if you've not heard of this before, you're going to take, let's say, $100,000 value. And if we want the ARV to be at 75% we're going to lend 75,000 is kind of the mix there. Those are quicker loans. You're going to be paying much higher rates on those. You know, between nine and 13% depending on the deal. The points are also going to be a little bit higher, but a great option for that quick turn and burn where you know your deal has enough skin in it and you can recapture all your capital and make a good tidy profit on it.

Keith Weinhold 26:53

We're talking about basically fixer upper loans here with Chaley Ridge, the president of ridge lending group, yes, these are jalopies that rarely qualify for traditional bank financing. And oftentimes, when I think about these fix and flip loans, I'm thinking that often there is interest only flexibility with regard to those higher interest rates that you need to pay. And I think of it as, you know, a shorter term loan that you've got during your renovation period, oftentimes 12 to 18 months. Does that sound about right?

Caeli Ridge 27:24

Yeah, 6,18, even 24 months. And to your point, yes, all of these are going to be interest only. And one of the cool things is about these loans is, is that, if there's enough room in the deal, right, based on what you need to borrow and what we think the ARV is expected to be, you don't even actually have to be making those interest payments. You can build it into the final payout when we go to refinance you out of this short term loan, or you simply sell the property and pay off that loan. So for example, let's say that your interest only payment is $1,000 a month, okay? And the value of the property is going to be $200,000 and you only took 120 okay, we're going to be well within that 75% ARV. You can build in that $1,000 say, for 12 months, there's $12,000 and just add it to the outstanding balance that you started by owing, and not have to be making those payments on an ongoing basis. It's not rented, right? So it might be nice to be able to factor that in to the actual payoff when you go to refinance that if it's a fix and hold versus go to sell it on a fix and flip.

Keith Weinhold 28:31

Now, long term, we know that the big gains for real estate investors really come from that leveraged appreciation getting that loan. But sometimes there are situations where we might want to act as a cash buyer. And that brings up this fourth of four loan types that I brought up, the bridge loan, short term loans that can temporarily finance a property purchase while you're waiting for a longer term loan to come through. The bridge loan, so I think of it as a pretty speedy loan, if you sort of want to act like you're an all cash buyer.

Caeli Ridge 29:04

Yeah, I like this, and in many ways it's similar to a fix and flip interest only. Obviously the term is going to be shorter, six months, 12 months, up to 24 months, and based on largely relationship, the bridge loan for the purpose that you described, really comes into play for an investor that we know and we're comfortable with, we can fund those inside a week, for somebody that we've done several of these loans for. So for those that need that really quick turn, once you've established yourself as a seasoned, experienced investor in that space, those are pretty slick and easy to get through.

Keith Weinhold 29:39

Why would someone use a bridge loan, rather than a fix and flip loan.

Caeli Ridge 29:43

So if they're in a very competitive market, that might be another option, because those are going to be faster. The bridge loan is going to be faster where they need to say that they're an all cash buyer and they only need seven days to close, or whatever it is. It depends on the municipality in the state. But what if you're at the courthouse steps? And you need cash quickly. Sometimes it needs to be immediate. So that might not be applicable in this case, but if you put the bid in, and you win the bid, and you've got, you know, three days to perform, usually we can get those done. So it's circumstantial. Those would be two variables or two scenarios that that would apply to

Keith Weinhold 30:17

the bridge loan gives you the advantage of speed, but that speed can come at a cost.

Caeli Ridge 30:22

Oh yeah, yeah, you're going to be paying probably three points, maybe four points, and it's short term interest, 13, 14%

Keith Weinhold 30:30

so with these four loan types that we've discussed, conventional DSCR, fix and flip and bridge loans, you can kind of see that there is a loan for most every investment scenario, and there's no reason to rely on only one type, a flipper. Might start with a short term fix and flip loan or a bridge loan and then later refinance to a DSCR or a conventional loan. So consider mixing and matching based on your needs. You're listening to get rich education. We're talking with Ridge leninger, President Taylor Ridge, more when we come back, including steps for more advanced investors, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold

Keith Weinhold 31:06

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Keith Weinhold 32:08

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Keith Weinhold 33:19

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage, start your pre qual and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com

Blair Singer 33:53

this is Rich Dad, sales advisor, Blair singer. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. And above all, don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 34:09

Welcome back to get rich education chili when we go beyond this beginner stage that we've been discussing, how about for an investor just trying to scale to 10 doors worth of one to four unit properties. Now, are there any strategies there or more of a loan order that you would recommend in getting up to your first 10 you know

Caeli Ridge 34:29

I think the strategy starts with calling your lender, ideally Ridge lending group, and having that deep strategy call that, that discovery call, so that we can really understand and plant some seeds that say, Okay, Mr. Jones, these are your qualifications today. This is where you want to be in a year or 10 years. These are the steps that are going to be important that we are mindful of and we take to accomplish and reach those milestones. It's really important to have that baseline understanding of what is your debt to income ratio on day one, what are your assets? Sets. What is your credit? Where do you want to be in a year or 10 years? Right? Do you want 10 properties in a year's time? It's going to be a very different conversation than if you're going to slow roll this and want to establish 10 purchases or 10 investment properties over 10 years. So identifying those details is going to be part one, and then next, in terms of order, I would say, largely the higher price point properties, typically, I would say, put those in one through six. And the reason that I'm saying that is is that the underwriting guidelines under conventional financing, they will change based on how many finance properties you have. So of all of the inner working guidelines and things that go into securing a conventional mortgage loan, the three top most heavily weighted are going to be debt to income ratio, credit score and assets. Okay? And within each one of those, the marker or the qualification guideline changes as you evolve and acquire more property. So the higher up the ring you go, or the rung that you go to 10, the more restrictive the guidelines are going to be. So I would typically say, get the higher price point properties go into maybe one to four, one to six, if that's part of your strategy and your diversification of portfolio ownership. Then after you've established having two or three or four properties and that higher price point it as it gets harder to qualify, potentially, if your debt to income ratio is a little bit tight, you've got the smaller loan sizes that might be less impactful in debt to income ratio. All of this is very subjective to the individual's qualifications and needs, of course, but that might be one rule of thumb that I would take

Keith Weinhold 36:39

gosh, this This is absolute gold in helping you structure the architecture of a growing income property portfolio. And we're coming up on this Super Bowl, and whatever mortgage lender advertises for the Super Bowl or has some big, splashy campaign nationally, you know they are not the ones that are going to have conversations like this for you, they might be fine for buying a primary residence, but this is why you want to have a long term strategy and work with a lender that's aligned with you on exactly that sort of thing. And Chaley, is there a specific way in which one can avoid hitting the Fannie Freddie loan ceilings too early if you haven't already touched on it.

Caeli Ridge 37:22

Yeah, very good question. You know, I think that this is going to come down to a debt to income ratio conversation. It's easy enough to ensure that we contain assets and credit. Those are easier conversations. The debt to income ratio is the piece that's more complicated and can get away from an investor without them even knowing it. You don't know what you don't know, right? So I would say that debt to income ratio and making sure that your lender again, hopefully Ridge lending, because we know this like we know our own faces, making sure they know how to structure and provide feedback and consult on that schedule E, part of the beauty of real estate investing is the tax deductions. Right? Many people get into real estate investing, not for the cash flow, not even for the appreciation, but for that tax strategy, because they're high wage earners, or whatever it may be, and they're sick of paying x in taxes. So the debt to income ratio is key in scaling and making sure you can continue to qualify for those loans. The conversations that we have with our clients really go deep about where we can maximize our deductions to ensure that we get the tax benefit without precluding our qualification on a conventional underwriting basis in the DTI category.

Keith Weinhold 38:35

Now, during my growth as an investor, when I got above 10 doors, one gets above 20 doors. When one gets to 216 doors, I began where I needed to qualify more on a DSCR basis, where the lender is looking at the properties qualification, more so than me. So are there any other thoughts with regard to how one can set themselves up for success in really going big and well beyond 10 doors

Caeli Ridge 39:03

absolutely so once we've exhausted the Fannie Freddie, and I think one of the real value adds about Ridge is that we are not a one size fits all, and we are extremely holistic versus transactional. So having that first conversation and understanding what those goals are, so that we can pivot as we need to maximize the golden tickets, whether that be 10 to 20, right? If you're in a marriage or a partnership or whatever, and then setting up for the DSCR loans when the time comes, and taking advantage of those, there is no limit to how many DSCR loans we can get for one individual. We have yet to file an individual that we've had to say no, and we've done quite a few of the high, high acquisition investors, so I don't expect that to be an issue, but yeah, I think it's about planning, planting those seeds, creating roadmaps together and have those smart discovery conversations.

Keith Weinhold 39:50

Now, as you grow, one way you might diversify is to have perhaps at least a part of your portfolio in short term rentals. So what I. Comes to getting loans for sort of Airbnb or VRBO type properties. What does one look for there? How much does the landscape change versus the longer term rentals that we've mostly been talking about here?

Caeli Ridge 40:10

Yeah, I think that the differences are going to be about purchase versus refinance. If we're just talking about purchases, let's kind of try to keep it in one lane. If we're talking about purchasing a short term rental, you may be limited on leverage. You might lose a little bit of leverage, 5% let's say you could get to 75% and maybe on a short term they're going to back it off to 70% LTV, so there may be reduction in that loan to value. And the way in which we're going to quantify the income is absolutely important to share with your listeners on a purchase transaction, we have access to things like an appraisal. An appraisal is going to give us some median rental income, whether it be long term or short term, that we will use to offset a new mortgage payment if that's needed for the individual's debt to income ratio qualification. Now, if they don't need the rental income to qualify, then it's a non issue. But if they do, like most of us, need that rental income to absorb this new mortgage payment that we are securing for them, how that's going to quantify is important. So if it's not in a short term rental area, let's just say it's kind of off the beaten path, and there may not be enough data points to support the income that you need. It's important to know that up front versus way down the rabbit hole, when you paid for appraisals and you're all the way through the transaction and earnest money might be off the table if you had to cancel that kind of thing. So really important to understand the numbers in advance, I would say, when we talk about short term rentals and how the income is going to be quantified from an underwriting perspective,

Keith Weinhold 41:43

why does a borrower often need to make a higher down payment on a short term rental than they do a long term rental?

Caeli Ridge 41:49

You know, I think that in secondary markets, as we talk about mortgage backed securities and things like that, it's looked at as a higher risk. A short term rental is going to be a higher risk than just the stable long term, long burn tenant is going to be there and they've got their lease for a year, two years or whatever, at a time, the short term rental is more volatile and it's seasonal. It can be I mean, there's all those different factors, so higher risk means more skin in the game for the investor.

Keith Weinhold 42:13

That makes a lot of sense. Does that higher risk also translate into a higher mortgage rate for short term rentals than long term rentals?

Caeli Ridge 42:18

Fannie Freddie versus DSCR The answer is no. On the Fannie Freddie side, the interest rate's not going to change on a DSCR loan. Yes, it can be slightly higher, usually about about a quarter of a percentage point on a short term versus a long term.

Keith Weinhold 42:33

Now, are there any particular markets that lenders want to avoid with short term rental loans?

Caeli Ridge 42:39

No, as long as the property is habitable, and all the other metrics fit Qualifications and Credit and assets and all that stuff. No, there isn't a market that we're going to have any issues with now. We do get the notifications for natural disaster areas, and as that relates to the appraisal and things like that, if it's in a natural disaster area or zone, we may have to hold funding until after the disaster is over, and then we can go and take more pictures and make sure it's still standing and there's no major issues. But otherwise, aside from that, as long as it's habitable, no, there is no market restriction.

Keith Weinhold 43:12

Yes, with that variability of income for short term rentals, you can understand how a lender would be more careful in making a loan, and would want you, the borrower, to put more skin in the game for a short term rental. Well, Caeli, overall, what should an investor do in the next 24 hours to make themselves more lendable before contacting someone like you?

Caeli Ridge 43:36

I would say the answer is sticky, but call rich lending group. That's how you're going to make yourself more lendable. And the reason that I can say that is is that everybody's qualifications and needs and goals are inherently different. So calling someone that understands this landscape and can navigate the battleship in the creek like I like to say, that's the visual aid for those of you that need the visual is the first key. And with that conversation, we're going to be able to identify for you specifically what you would need to do to become more lendable. And it may be nothing

Keith Weinhold 44:07

well over there, Chaley, you're growing. You do loans in almost all 50 states. The GRE podcast has more than 5.8 million listener downloads, and you have helped countless GRE listeners acquire smart investor loans for fully a decade now. Just amazing. So talk to us about all of the loan types that you offer investors there at ridge.

Caeli Ridge 44:30

My gosh. Okay, so I think one of the real value adds for us is that we have such a diverse menu of loan products. We touched on a few of them already. So we've got the conventional Fannie Mae Freddie, Mac stuff. We've got our DSCR loans. We have bank statement loans, asset depletion loans. I can touch on those if you want. Keith, we have our short term bridge fix and flip. We have our All In One my favorite, first lien, HELOC we have second lien HELOCs. We have commercial loan products, and commercial can apply to residential and commercial property. A cross collateralization, commercial for residential properties. That just means, if you're putting 10 single families into one blanket loan, that would be cross collateralization, or if you're buying a storage unit that's straight commercial, and probably even more than that, ground up construction, there's really not a limit to the loan products that we offer, specifically for investors. The only thing we don't have, I would say in our arsenal is bare land loans. Those are hard to come by

Keith Weinhold 45:24

It sounds like you recommend a call in order to get some of that back and forth, to learn how you can best help that investor. But tell us about all the ways that someone

Caeli Ridge 45:32

can get a hold of you. Yes, there's a few ways. Of course, our website, ridgeline group.com, you can call us toll free at 855-747434385, 747-434-3855, 74, Ridge. Or feel free to email us info at Ridge lending group.com

Keith Weinhold 45:49

and you might get lucky. Hey, spin the wheel. Chaele does get on the phone and talk to individual investors herself too. So Chaley, it's been valuable as always to cover all these different loan types for beginners, and then what one does when they advance beyond that. It's been great having you back on the show.

Caeli Ridge 46:09

Thank you, Keith. I appreciate you.

Keith Weinhold 46:16

Oh yeah, a lot to learn from Chaley today. You've got mortgage rates three quarters to 1% lower than they were a year ago. At this time, in fact, last month, they ticked below 6% for the first time in years, and their lowest level in over three years. But when you introduce geopolitical uncertainty, well, that tends to make rates tick up again. Now, just what does happen when you have a lower overall rate trend like we have? Well, in this cycle, it's already spurred an increase in housing sales volume. It surged to 4.3 5 million in the latest reporting month, and that is the hottest annualized pace in nearly three years. Some of the same people who said, wait until rates fall, they're about to realize that prices didn't wait. Demand comes back fast. Inventory doesn't if mortgage rates take another leg lower, we could see quite a refinance wave in balanced markets or in supply constrained markets, bidding wars could follow. Now I've shared with you before that I totally do not predict interest rates. I don't know if anyone should. It is a great way to be fantastically wrong and supremely waste a lot of people's time. Instead, I think it's more efficacious for you to be able to interpret the signs that can trigger a further rate drop. Those signs are a weak jobs report that tends to bring lower rates because the labor market needs the help. So does softening wage growth, GDP below expectations, inflation continuing to cool, or a pickup in US Treasury demand. These are all signs that can lead to even lower rates. In fact, right now, with already lower rates and higher wages, real estate is more affordable than it's been in about three years, but overall, longer term, yeah, income properties still feel somewhat less affordable. It's less affordable than it was in pre pandemic times. That's for real for US investors, though, affordability is less about the price of the property, it's about whether the property pays for itself and grows your net worth while inflation does the heavy lifting for you, that's why it still works for us as investors. Higher prices don't kill investors inaction during inflation does you're not so much buying a say, 350k property. You're controlling it with 70k while your tenant and inflation do the rest. We don't rely on hope or appreciation. We start with inflation, tax benefits and debt pay down, and then appreciation typically happens too. A lot of times, the question for us goes beyond whether or not a property is affordable. The question is whether owning an investment property is better than inflation compounding against us, which is an investor mindset for this era, Ridge landing gear. President Chaley Ridge is a regular guest here because the mortgage space is so dynamic and things change a lot. For that reason, we expect to have her with us every few months this year, I'll see you next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 50:01

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively

Keith Weinhold 50:30

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, getricheducation.com

Keith challenges the usual "overpopulated vs. underpopulated" debate and shows why that's the wrong way to think about demographics—especially if you're a real estate investor.

Listeners will hear about surprising global population comparisons that flip common assumptions.

Why raw population numbers don't actually explain housing shortages or rent strength.

How household formation, aging, and migration really drive demand for rentals.

Which kinds of markets tend to see persistent housing pressure—and why the US has a long‑term demographic edge.

You'll come away seeing population headlines very differently, and with a clearer lens for spotting where future housing demand is most likely to show up.

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GetRichEducation.com/590

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Invest with Freedom Family Investments.

For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text 1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach

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Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, is the world overpopulated or underpopulated? Also is the United States over or underpopulated? These are not just rhetorical questions, because I'm going to answer them both. Just one of Africa's 54 nations has more births than all of Europe and Russia combined. One US state has seen their population decline for decades. This is all central to housing demand today. On get rich education

Keith Weinhold 0:36

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Speaker 1 1:21

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:31

Welcome to GRE from Norfolk Virginia to Norfolk, Nebraska and across 188 nations worldwide, you are inside. Get rich education. I am the GRE founder, Best Selling Author, longtime real estate investor. You can see my written work in Forbes and the USA Today, but I'm best known as the host of this incomprehensibly slack John operation that you're listening to right now. My name is Keith Weinhold. You probably know that already, one reason that we're talking about underpopulated versus overpopulated today is that also one of my degrees is in geography and demography, essentially, is human geography, and that's why this topic is in my wheelhouse. It's just a humble bachelor's degree, by the way, if a population is not staying stable or growing, then demand for housing just must atrophy away. That's what people think, but that is not true. That's oversimplified. In some cases. It might even be totally false. You're going to see why. Now, Earth's population is at an all time high of about 8.2 billion people, and it keeps growing, and it's going to continue to keep growing, but the rate of growth is slowing now. Where could all of the people on earth fit? This is just a bit of a ridiculous abstraction in a sense, but I think it helps you visualize things. Just take this scenario, if all the humans were packed together tightly, but in a somewhat realistic way, in a standing room only way, if every person on earth stood shoulder to shoulder, that would allow about 2.7 square feet per person, they would sort of be packed like a subway car. Well, they could fit in a square, about 27 kilometers on one side, about 17 miles on each side of that square. Now, what does that mean in real places that is smaller than New York City, about half the size of Los Angeles County and roughly the footprint of Lake Tahoe? So yes, every human alive today could physically fit inside one midsize us metro area. This alone tells you something important. The world's problem is certainly not a lack of space. Rather, it's where people live and not how many there are. So that was all of Earth's inhabitants. Now, where could all Americans fit us residents using the same shoulder to shoulder assumption, and the US population by mid year this year is supposed to be about 350,000,00349 that's a square about five and a half kilometers, or 3.4 miles on each side. And some real world comparisons there are. That's about half of Manhattan, smaller than San Francisco and roughly the size of Disney World, so every American could fit into a single small city footprint. And if you're beginning to form an early clue that we are not overpopulated globally, yes, that's the sense that you Should be getting.

Keith Weinhold 5:01

now, if you're in Bangladesh, it feels overpopulated there. They've got 175 million people, and that nation is only the size of Iowa. In area, Bangladesh is low lying and typhoon prone. They get a lot of flooding, which complicates their already bad sanitation problems and a dense population like that, and that creates waterborne diseases, and it's really more of an infrastructure problem in a place like Bangladesh than it is a population problem. Then Oppositely, you've got Australia as much land as the 48 contiguous states, yet just 27 million people in Australia, and only 1/400 as many people as Bangladesh in density. Now we talk about differential population. About 80% of Americans live in the eastern half of the US. But yet, the East is not overpopulated because we have sufficient infrastructure, and I've got some more mind blowing population stats for you later, both world and us. Now, as far as is the world overpopulated or underpopulated, which is our central question, depending on who you ask and where they live, you're going to hear completely different answers. Some people are convinced that the planet is bursting at the seams. Others warn that we're headed for a population collapse. But here's the problem, that question overpopulated or underpopulated, it's the wrong question. It's the wrong framing, especially if you're into real estate, because housing demand doesn't respond to total headcount or global averages or scary demographic headlines. Housing demand responds to where people live, how old they are, and how they form households. And once you understand this, a lot of things suddenly begin to make sense, like why housing shortages persist, why rents stay high, even when affordability feels stretched, why some states struggle while others boom, and why population headlines often mislead investors.

Keith Weinhold 7:20

So today I want to reframe how you think about population and connect it directly to housing demand, both globally and right here in the United States. And let's start with the US, because that's probably where you invest.

Keith Weinhold 7:33

Here's a simple fact that should confuse people, but usually doesn't, the United States has below replacement fertility. I'll talk about fertility rates a little later. They're similar to birth rates, meaning that Americans are not having enough children to replace the population naturally and without immigration, the US population would eventually shrink, and yet in the US, we have a housing shortage, rising rents, tight vacancy and a lot of metros and persistent demand for rental housing, which could all seem contradictory. Now, if population alone determine housing demand, well, then the US really shouldn't have any housing shortage at all, but it does so clearly, population alone is not the main driver, and really that contradiction is like your first clue that most demographic conversations are just missing the point. Aging does not reduce housing demand. The way that people think a misconception really is that an aging population automatically reduces housing demand. It does not, in fact, just the opposite. If a population is too young, well, that tends to kill housing demand, and that's because five year old kids and 10 year old kids do not form their own household. Instead, what an aging population often does is change the type of housing that's demanded, like seniors aging in place, some of them downsizing. Seniors living alone. Sometimes after a spouse passes away, others relocating closer to health care or to family. So aging can increase unit demand even if population growth slows. So already, we've broken two myths here. Slower population doesn't mean weaker housing demand, and aging doesn't mean fewer housing units are needed. Now let's explain why. Really, the core idea that unlocks everything is that people don't live inside, what are called Population units. They live in households. You are one person. That does not mean that your dwelling is then one population unit. That's not how that works. You are part of a household, whether that's a house a Household of one person or five or 11 people, housing demand is driven by the number of households, the type of households and where those households are forming, not by raw population totals. So the same population can have wildly different demand. Just think about how five people living together in one home, that's one housing unit, those same five people living separately, that is five housing units, same population, five times the housing demand. And this is why population statistics alone are almost useless for real estate investors, you need to know how people are living, not just how many there are. The biggest surge in housing demand happens when people leave their parents' homes or when they finish school or when they start working, or you got big surges in housing demand when people marry or when they separate or divorce. So in other words, adults create housing demand and children don't. And this is why a country with a youngish, working age population, oh, then they can have exploding housing demand. A country with high birth rates, but low household formation can have overcrowding without profitable housing growth. So it's not about babies, it's about independent adults, and what quietly boosts housing demand, then is housing fragmentation. Yeah, fragmentation. That's a trend that really doesn't get enough attention, and that is the trend, households are fragmenting, meaning more single adults later marriage, like I was talking about in a previous episode. Recently, higher divorce rates, more people living alone and older adults living independently, longer. Each one of those trends increases housing demand without adding any population whatsoever. When two people split up, they often need two housing units instead of one, and if you've got one adult living alone, that is full unit demand right there. So that's why housing demand can rise even when population growth slows or stalls for housing demand. What matters more than births is migration. And another key distinction is that, yes, births matter, but they're on somewhat of this 20 year delay and migration matters immediately, right now. So see, when a working age adult moves, they need housing right away. They typically rent first. They cluster near jobs, and they don't bring housing supply along with them. They've got to get it from someone else. Hopefully you in your rental unit.

Keith Weinhold 12:57

This is why migration is such a powerful force in rental markets, and you see me talk about migration on the show, and you see me send you migration maps in our newsletter. It's also why housing pressure shows up unevenly. It gets concentrated around opportunity. If you want to know the future, look at renters. Renters are the leading indicator, not homeowners and not birth rates. See renters create housing demand faster than homeowners, because renters form households earlier. They can do it quickly because they don't need down payments. Renters move more frequently and immigration overwhelmingly starts in rentals, fresh immigrants rarely become homeowners, so even when mortgage rates rise or home purchases slow or affordability headlines get scary, rental demand can stay strong. It's not a mystery, it's demographics. So births surely matter, but only over the long term. It's like how I've shared with you in a previous episode that the US had a lot of births between 1990 and 2010 those two decades, a surge of births more than 4 million every single one of those years during those two decades, with that peak birth year at 2007 but see a bunch of babies being born in 2007 Well, that didn't make housing demand surge, since infants don't buy homes. But if you add, say, 20 years to 2007 when those people start renting, oh, well, that rental demand peaks in 2027 or maybe a little after that, and since the first time, homebuyer age is now 40. If that stays constant, well, then native born homebuyer demand won't peak until 2047 so when it comes to housing demand, the important thing to remember is migration has an immediate effect and births have a delayed effect.

Keith Weinhold 15:02

and I'm going to talk more about other nations shortly, but the US has two major migration forces working simultaneously, domestic and international migration. I mean, Americans move a lot, although not as much as they used to, and people move for jobs, for taxes, for weather, for cost of living and for lifestyle. So this creates state level winners and losers, and Metro level housing pressure and rent growth in those destination markets and national population averages totally hide this. So that's domestic migration. And then on the international migration. The US has a long history, hundreds of years now on, just continually attracting working age adults from around the world. This matters immensely, because they arrive ready to work, and they form households quickly. They overwhelmingly rent first. They concentrate in metros, and this props up rental demand before it ever shows up in home prices. And this is why investors often feel the rent pressure first those rising rents.

Keith Weinhold 16:17

I've got more straight ahead, including Nigeria versus Europe, and what about the overpopulation straining the environment? If you like, episodes that explain why housing behaves the way it does, rather than just reacting to the headlines. You'll want to be on my free weekly newsletter. I break down demographics, housing, demand, inflation, investor trends and real estate strategy in plain English, often complemented with maps. You can join free at greletter.com that's gre letter.com

Keith Weinhold 16:53

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Keith Weinhold 17:54

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Keith Weinhold 19:05

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com

Chris Martenson 19:37

this is peak prosperity. Is Chris Martinson. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 19:53

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and this is episode 590 yes, we're in my Geography wheelhouse today, as I'm talking human geography and demographics with how it relates to housing, while answering our central question today is the world and the US overpopulated or underpopulated? And now that we understand some mechanics here, let's go global. Here's one of the most mind bending stats in all of demographics. Are you ready for this? When you hear this, it's going to have you hitting up chat, GPT, looking it up. It's going to be so astonishing. So jaw dropping. Every year, Nigeria has more births than all of Europe plus all of Russia combined. Would you talk about Willis?

Keith Weinhold 20:47

Yeah, yes, you heard that, right? Willis, that's what I'm talking about. Willis. The source of that data is, in fact, from the United Nations. Yes, Nigeria has seven and a half million births every year. Compare that to all of Europe plus Russia combined, they only have about 6.3 million births per year. So you're telling me that today, just one West African nation, and there are 54 nations in Africa. Just one West African nation produces more babies than the entire continent of Europe, with all of its nations plus all of Russia, the largest world nation by area. Yes, that is correct. One country in Africa produces more babies every year than France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, all of Europe, including all the Eastern European nations, and all of Russia combined. This is a demographic reality, and now you probably already know that less developed nations, like Nigeria have higher birth rates than wealthier, more developed ones like France or Switzerland. I mean, that's almost common knowledge, but something that people think about less is that poorer nations also have a larger household size, which sort of makes sense when you think about it. In fact, Nigeria has five persons per household. Spain has two and a half, and the US also has that same level two and a half. That one difference alone explains why population growth and housing demand are completely different stories now, the US had 3.3 people per household in 1950 and it's down to that two and a half today. That means that even if the population stayed the same, the housing demand would rise. And this is evidence of what I talked about before the break, that households are fragmenting within the US. You can probably guess which state has the largest household size due to their Mormon population. It's Utah at 3.1 the smallest is Maine at 2.3 they have an older population. In fact, Maine has America's oldest population. And as you can infer with what you've learned now, the fact that they have just 2.3 people per household means that if their populations were the same. Maine would need more housing units than Utah. By the way, if you're listening closely at times, I have referred to the United States as simply America. Yes, I am American. You are going to run into some people out there that don't like it. When US residents call themselves Americans, they say something like, Hey, you need a geography lesson. America runs from Nunavut all the way down to Argentina. Here's what to tell them. No, look, there are about 200 world nations. There is only one that has the word America in it, that is the United States of America that usually makes them lighten up. That is why I am an American, not a Peruvian or Bolivian, and there's no xenophobic connotation whatsoever. There are more productive things to think about moving on. Why births matter is because births today become future workers, renters, consumers and even migrants. But not evenly. Young populations move toward a few things. They're attracted to capital. They move towards stability. They're attracted to opportunity, and young populations move toward infrastructure. That's not ideology, that's the gravity and the US remains one of the strongest gravity wells on Earth, a big magnet, a big attractant. Now it's sort of interesting. I know a few a People that believe that the world is indeed overpopulated, they often tend to be environmental enthusiasts, and the environment is a concern, for sure, but how big of a concern is it? That's the debatable part. And you know, it's funny, I've run into the same people that think that the world is overpopulated, they seem to lament at school closures. You see more school closures because just there weren't as many children that were born after the global financial crisis. And these people that are afraid we have an overpopulation problem call school closures a sad phenomenon. They think it's sad. Well, if you want a shrinking population, then you're going to see a lot more than just schools close so many with environmental concerns, though. The thing is, is that they seem to discount the fact that humans innovate. More than 200 years ago, Thomas Malthus, he famously failed. He wrote a book, thinking that the global population would exceed what he called his carrying capacity, meaning that we wouldn't be able to feed everybody. He posited that, look, this is a problem. Populations grow exponentially, but food production only grows linearly. But he was wrong, because, due to agricultural innovation, we have got too many calories in most places. Few people thought this many humans could live in the United States, Sonoran and Mojave deserts, that's Phoenix in Las Vegas, respectively. But our ability to recycle and purify water allows millions of people to live there. So my point about running out of resources is that history shows us that humans are a resource ourselves, and we keep finding ways to innovate, or keep finding ways to actually not need that rare earth element or whatever it is now, if the earth warms too much from human related activity, can we cool it off again? And how much of a problem is this? I am not sure, and that goes beyond the scope of our show. But the broader point here is that history shows us that humans keep figuring things out, and that is somewhat of an answer to those questions. The world is not overpopulated, it is unevenly populated. Some regions are young, others are growing, others are capital constrained, and then other regions are aging, shrinking and capital rich. And that very imbalance right there is what fuels migration and fuels labor flows and fuels housing demand in destination countries and the US benefits from this imbalance. Unlike almost anywhere else in the world, it's a demographic magnet. Yes, you do have some smaller ones out there, like Dubai, for example.

Keith Weinhold 28:04

But why? Why do we keep attracting immigrants? Well, we've got strong labor markets, capital availability, property rights, economic mobility, and US has existing housing stock. Countries today don't just compete for capital, they're competing for people. In the US keeps attracting working age adults, and that is exactly the demographic that creates housing demand, and this is why long term housing demand in the US is more resilient than a lot of people think. In fact, the US population of about 350 million. This year, it's projected to peak at about 370 million, near 2080 and of course, the big factor that makes that pivot is that level of immigration. So that's why the population projections vary now. The last presidential administration allowed for a lot of immigrants. The current one few immigrants, and the next one, nobody knows. You've got a group called the falconist party that calls for increased legal immigration into the US. Yeah, they want to allow more migrants into the country, but yet they want to enforce illegal immigration. That sounds just like it's spelled, F, A, L, C, O, N, i, s, t, the falconist Party, but the us's magnetic effect to keep driving population growth through immigration is key, because you might already know that 2.1 is the magic number you need a fertility rate of at least 2.1 to maintain a population fertility rate that is the average number of children that a woman is expected to have over her lifetime. And be sure you don't confuse these numbers with the earlier numbers of people per. Per household, like I discussed earlier, although higher fertility rates are usually going to lead to more people per household, India's fertility rate is already down to 2.0 Yes, it is the most populated nation in the world, but since women, on average, only have two children, India is already below replacement fertility. The US and Australia are each at 1.6 Japan is just 1.2 China's is down to 1.0 South Korea's is at an incredibly low seven tenths of one, so 0.7 in South Korea, and then Nigeria's is still more than four. So among all those that I mentioned, only Nigeria is above the replacement rate of 2.1 and most of the nations above that rate are in Africa. Israel is a big outlier at 2.9 you've got others in the Middle East and South Asia that are above replacement rate as well. And when I say things like it's still up there, that whole still thing refers to the fact that there is this tendency worldwide for society to urbanize and have fewer children. For those fertility rates to keep falling. And that's why the future population growth is about which nations attract immigrants, and that is the US. Is huge advantage. Now there's a great way to look at where future births are going to come from. A way to do this is consider your chance of being born on each continent in the year 2100 This is interesting. In the year 2100 a person has a 48% chance of being born in Africa, 38% in South Asia, in the Middle East, 5% South America, 5% in Europe or Russia, 4% in North America, and less than 1% in Australia. Those are the chances of you being born on each of those continents in the year 2100 and that sourced by the UN.

Keith Weinhold 32:09

the world population is, as I said earlier, about 8.2 billion, and it's actually expected to peak around the same time that the US population is in the 2080s and that'll be near 10 point 3 billion. All right, so both the world and the US population should rise for another 50 to 60 years. Let's talk about population winners and losers inside the US. I mean, this is where population conversations really become useful for investors, because population doesn't matter nationally that much. It really matters locally, unevenly and sometimes it almost feels unfairly. So let me give you some perspective shifting stats. I think I shared with you when I discussed new New York City Mayor Zoran Manami here on the show a month or two ago, that the New York City Metro Area has over 20 million people, nearly double the combined population of Arizona and Nevada together, yes, just one metro area, the same as Two entire sparsely populated states. So when someone says people are leaving New York I mean that tells you almost nothing, unless you know where they're going. How many are still arriving in New York City to replace those leaving, and how many households are still forming inside that Metro? The household formation so scale matters, however, net, people are not leaving New York. New York City recently had more in migration than any other US Metro. Some states are practically empty. Alaska or take Wyoming. Wyoming has fewer than 600,000 people in the entire state. That's fewer people than a lot of single US cities. That's only about six people per square mile. In Wyoming, that's about the population of one midsize Metro suburb. Now, when someone says the US has plenty of land in a lot of cases, they're right. I mean, just look out the window when you fly over Wyoming or the Dakotas. But people don't really live where land is cheap. They actually don't want to. Most of the time. They live where jobs, incomes and their networks already exist. You know, the wealthy guy that retires to Wyoming and it has a 200 acre ranch is an outlier. There's a reason he can sprawl out and make it 200 acres. There's virtually nobody there. Let's understand too that population loss, that doesn't mean that demand is gone, but it does change the rules, especially when you think about a place like West Virginia. They have lost population in most decades since the 1950s and incredibly, their population is lower today than it was in 1930 we're talking about West Virginia statewide. They have an aging population. West Virginia has an outmigration of young adults. So this doesn't mean that no real estate works in West Virginia, but it means that appreciation stories are fragile. Income matters more than equity. Growth and demographics are a headwind, not a tailwind. That's a very different investment posture than where you usually want to be. It's important to understand that a handful of metros, just a handful, are absorbing massive national growth. And here's something that a lot of investors underestimate. About half of all US, population growth flows into fewer than 15 metro areas, and it's not just New York City, Houston, Miami, but smaller places like Jacksonville, Austin and Raleigh, and that really helps pump their real estate market. So that means demand concentrates, housing pressure intensifies, and rent growth becomes pretty sticky, unless you wildly overbuild for a short period of time like Austin did, and this is why some metros just feel perpetually tight over the long term, and others feel permanently sluggish. Population does not spread evenly. It piles up. In fact, Texas is a great case in point here. Understand that Texas is adding people faster than some entire nations do. Texas alone adds hundreds of 1000s of residents per year in strong cycles. Some years, they do add more people than entire small countries, more than several Midwest states combined. And of course, they don't spread evenly across Texas. They cluster in DFW, Houston, Austin and San Antonio, so pretty much the Texas triangle, and that clustering fact is everything for housing demand, yet at the same time, there are fully 75 Texas counties that are losing population, typically out in West Texas. Then there's Florida. Florida isn't just growing. It's replacing people. Florida's growth. It's not just net positive, it's replacement migration, and it's across all different types and ages. You've got retirees arriving, you've got young workers arriving, you've got young households forming, and you've got seniors aging in place. So this way, among a whole spectrum of ages, you've got demand for rentals, workforce housing, age specific, housing and multifamily all in Florida, and this is why Florida housing demand over the long term is not going to cool off the way that a few skeptics expect. Now, of course, some areas did temporarily overbuild in Florida in the years following the pandemic. Yes, that's led to some temporary Florida home price attrition, but that is going to be absorbed. California did not empty out. It reshuffled now. There were some recent years where California lost net population, but here's what that hides. Some metros lost residents. Others stayed flat. You had some income brackets that left California and others arrived. In fact, California has slight population growth today overall, so housing demand definitely did not vanish. It shifted within the state and then outward to nearby states, and that's how Arizona, Nevada and Texas benefited. But overall, California's population count, really, it's just pretty steady, not declining.

Keith Weinhold 39:05

population density. It's that density that predicts rent pressure better than growth rates. Do something really important for real estate investors. Dense metros absorb shocks better. They have less elastic housing supply, and they see faster rent rebounds. Sparse areas have cheaper land and easier supply expansion and weaker rent resilience. So that's why rents snap back faster in dense metros, and oversupply hurts more in spread out to regions. Density matters more than raw growth does. Shrinking states can still have tight housing I mean, some states lose population overall, but yet they still have housing shortages in certain metros, and you'll have tight rental markets near job centers, and you've got strong demand In limited sub markets, even if the state is shrinking. And I think you know this is why the slower growing Northeast and Midwest, they've had the highest home price appreciation in the past two years. There's not enough building there. If your population falls 1% but the available housing falls 2% well, you can totally get into a housing shortage situation, and that bids up real estate prices. And when people look at population charts on the state level, a lot of times, they still get misled. When you buy an investment property, you don't buy a state, you buy a specific market within it, so the United States is not full it is lopsided. The US is not overpopulated. It is heavily clustered. It's unevenly dense, and it's really driven by migration. And perhaps a better way to say it is that the US population is really opportunity concentrated housing demand follows jobs, networks, wages and migration flows. It sure does not follow empty land. And really the investor takeaway is, is that when you hear population stats, don't put too much weight on the question, is the population rising or falling? Although that's something you certainly want to know. Some better questions to ask are, where are households forming? Where are adults moving? Where is supply constrained? And where does income support, rent like those are, what four big questions there, because population alone does not create housing demand. It's households under constraint that do so. Our big arching overall question is the world overpopulated or underpopulated? The answer is neither. The world is unevenly populated. It's unevenly aged, and it's unevenly governed. And for real estate investors, the lesson is simple. You don't invest in population counts, you invest in household formation, age structure, migration and supply constraints. Really, that's a big learning summary for you, that's why housing demand can stay strong even when population growth slows. And once you understand that demographic headlines that seem scary aren't as scary, and they start to be more useful. Why I've wanted to do this overpopulated versus underpopulated episode for you for years. I've really thought about it for years. I really hope that you got something useful out of it. Let's be mindful of the context too. When it comes to the classic Adam Smith economics of supply demand, I've only discussed one side today, largely just the demand side and not the supply side so much that would involve a discussion about building and some more things that supply side. Now that I've helped you ask a better question about population and the future of housing demand, you might wonder where you can get better answers. Well, like I mentioned earlier, I provide a lot of that and help you make sense of it, both right here on this show and with my newsletter, geography is something that's more conducive and meaningful to you visually, that's often done with a map, and that's why my letter at greletter.com will help you more if you enjoy learning through maps, just like we've done every year since 2014 I've got 52 great episodes coming to you this year. If you haven't consider subscribing to the show until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 43:57

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Keith Weinhold 44:25

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