Today we talk the war impact on the US Economic cycle. Global uncertainty is distorting market behavior and the gap between perception and reality, particularly in areas like oil supply, emphasizes that prices, not narratives, are the most reliable signal. We explore rising oil prices, shifting interest rates, and a flattening yield curve, while stressing the importance of adapting investment theses as new information emerges rather than clinging to outdated views. We also talk sector performance, valuation concerns, global energy vulnerabilities, and how different economies are reacting to supply shocks. Investors cannot control external events but must remain flexible, focus on market signals, manage risk, and avoid emotional decision-making, especially in uncertain environments where sitting on the sidelines may be the most prudent strategy.

We discuss...

• Markets are currently being driven more by narratives, geopolitics, and sentiment than by traditional fundamentals.
• There is a significant disconnect between public perception and reality, especially in areas like global oil supply.
• Rising oil prices and war-related uncertainty are pushing inflation expectations and interest rates higher.
• The yield curve is flattening, signaling changing economic conditions and potential stress in lending and growth.
• Market price action is the most reliable indicator of truth, reflecting collective positioning and expectations.
• Many stocks are experiencing deeper drawdowns than headline indexes suggest, masking underlying weakness.
• Certain sectors like energy and value stocks are outperforming, while growth and tech are under pressure.
• Global energy disruptions are exposing the fragility of supply chains and impacting economies unevenly.
• Emerging markets and energy-dependent countries are feeling the effects of the crisis more quickly.
• Valuation concerns remain, particularly in high-multiple companies where earnings may not support prices.
• Historical data suggests Q1 performance does not strongly predict the rest of the year's market returns.
• Economic cycles influence which asset classes perform best, requiring shifts in portfolio allocation over time.
• War conditions disrupt normal market cycles, making traditional frameworks less reliable in the short term.
• Investors should prioritize risk management, flexibility, and avoiding emotional decision-making.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/war-impact-on-the-us-economic-cycle-805

Marc Walton shares his journey from running traditional businesses in the UK to working in forex trading. His investing work expands across forex, crypto, and global markets, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and recognizing market cycles. We talk how institutional players like Wall Street often manipulate narratives and markets, creating opportunities for informed investors who understand positioning and sentiment. Marc highlights key areas of opportunity he sees today, including gold and silver, rare earth metals, uranium, energy, and select crypto assets. We also explore skepticism around AI as a potential bubble similar to the dot-com era, debates its real-world utility versus hype, and how macro forces, politics, and investor psychology drive markets more than fundamentals. Success comes from staying flexible, thinking independently, managing risk, and aligning with larger market forces rather than trying to fight them.

We discuss...

• Marc Walton transitioned from running traditional UK businesses to full-time trading and investing across forex, crypto, and global markets.
• Early retirement led him to forex trading, where he initially lost money before finding success through mentorship and disciplined learning.
• A major wealth inflection point came from early crypto investments, particularly in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Cardano.
• Wall Street firms frequently criticize assets like crypto publicly while quietly positioning to profit from them.
• Marc stresses the importance of taking profits and managing risk, especially in volatile assets like crypto.
• Energy demand, particularly driven by AI and electrification, is seen as a major long-term investment theme.
• Markets are increasingly driven by sentiment, politics, and liquidity rather than traditional fundamentals.
• Forex trading is described as complex but manageable if approached professionally rather than as gambling.
• Retail investors often struggle due to lack of financial education, discipline, and follow-through on investment decisions.
• Geopolitical factors, including China's control of rare earths, are shaping long-term investment opportunities.
• Speculative sectors like cannabis and high-yield ETFs were explored with caution around risk and sustainability.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Diana Perkins | Trading With Diana

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/forex-trading-marc-walton-804

What is happening in the markets right now? Today we focus on how war, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting economic conditions are driving unusual market behavior. Markets are increasingly reacting to narratives, sentiment, and positioning rather than clear fundamentals. There is a repeating weekly pattern of short-term gains followed by declines, emphasizing that market reactions are the most reliable signal of truth amid widespread misinformation. Rising oil prices are fueling short-term inflation expectations and inflation may ultimately prove temporary unless conflict persists. We also talk structural shifts in markets, including weakening breadth, a transition from emotional reactions to repricing, pressure on technology stocks due to AI concerns, and a gradual move by consumers toward essentials. It's important to adapt your strategy to market regimes and use risk management, smaller position sizing, and cash for optionality. The current environment is a volatile, tactical market where active management, liquidity awareness, and flexibility are critical.

We discuss...

• Market reactions are the most reliable indicator of what information is actually meaningful.
• Rising oil prices are driving short-term inflation expectations through higher energy and transportation costs.
• Inflation may prove temporary if conflict resolves quickly, but could persist if disruptions last several months.
• Volatility remains elevated, but panic has faded as investors adjust positioning.
• Technology stocks are weakening due to concerns about AI disrupting traditional software business models.
• Market breadth is deteriorating, with fewer stocks supporting overall index performance.
• Consumers are shifting spending from discretionary items toward essential goods.
• Housing markets are stagnating, with high mortgage rates freezing transaction activity.
• Liquidity risks are building across sectors including private credit, commercial real estate, and banking.
• Geopolitics is now a primary market driver, impacting supply chains, energy, and global capital flows.
• Investors are experiencing narrative fatigue, becoming desensitized to headlines despite rising underlying risks.
• The current environment favors active, tactical investing over passive buy-and-hold strategies.
• Fundamentals are less reliable in the short term, with price action driven more by sentiment and positioning.
• Risk management, smaller position sizing, and quick decision-making are critical in volatile markets.
• Holding cash provides optionality and the ability to deploy capital during market dislocations.
• Options and technical trading strategies may offer opportunities in a high-volatility environment.
• Secular and cyclical market cycles require different approaches, with potential transition into a longer-term bear phase.
• Avoiding overleveraged assets and rate-sensitive sectors is key as financial conditions tighten.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/happening-in-the-markets-803

Medicare madness solved! Join us as Sylvia Gordon demystifies retirement planning, explaining how Medicare and Social Security actually work, highlighting key age milestones and emphasizes that there is no one-size-fits-all strategy. Descisions depend heavily on individual health, finances, and lifestyle goals. We break down Medicare's complex structure, contrasts private Medicare Advantage plans with traditional coverage, and explores common (and costly) misconceptions while also addressing broader systemic issues such as rising healthcare costs, doctor shortages, and policy uncertainty. Personalized planning is the most important thing you can do as there is no one-size-fits-all set up. Early education and understanding nuanced rules like spousal and ex-spousal Social Security benefits can help you avoid leaving money on the table.

We discuss...

• Sylvia Gordon explained her background training insurance agents and simplifying retirement topics through short-form educational content.
• Many people misunderstand that taking Social Security early permanently reduces benefits and that Medicare does not begin at the same time.
• There is no universal "rule of thumb" for claiming Social Security, as decisions depend on the individuals goals.
• Medicare enrollment at 65 is optional if you continue working with qualifying employer coverage, which can prevent unnecessary costs.
• Prescription drug coverage now includes a capped out-of-pocket maximum, though costs have shifted for many users.
• Healthcare system challenges such as doctor shortages and low Medicare reimbursement rates were discussed as reasons providers limit Medicare patients.
• Rising healthcare costs and inefficiencies are major pressures on the long-term sustainability of retirement systems.
• Future changes to Social Security and Medicare are likely to include higher retirement ages and reduced benefits due to demographic trends.
• Policy changes are often phased in gradually to avoid political backlash and protect current retirees.
• The conversation explored potential reforms like lowering drug prices and reducing U.S. subsidization of global pharmaceutical costs.
• Medical tourism and international drug purchasing are discussed as cost-saving strategies not typically covered by Medicare.
• Medicare generally does not cover alternative or functional medicine, requiring out-of-pocket spending for those services.
• Incentives within healthcare, such as provider bonuses and system constraints, can influence treatment recommendations.
• Many retirees miss benefits or make suboptimal decisions due to lack of education and reluctance to discuss finances within families.
• Starting retirement planning in your 50s, and helping parents navigate the system, can improve outcomes and understanding.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management
• Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/medicare-madness-solved-sylvia-gordon-802

WAR… and no market crash… Are we in a bear market or a bull market? Rapidly shifting narratives, once centered on a soft landing, rate cuts, and strong consumers, have been disrupted by war, oil volatility, and weakening economic data, creating widespread uncertainty and "busted brackets" for investors. Markets are behaving irrationally, often reacting more to expectations and propaganda than clear fundamentals, making prediction unreliable and reinforcing the importance of scenario-based thinking rather than conviction. There will either be a quick end to the conflict that could drive lower oil, falling rates, and a rebound in bonds and staples, or a prolonged war leading to higher inflation, economic strain, and limited upside across most assets.

With elevated correlations, fragile financial systems, and a stalled market that has gone largely sideways, traditional diversification may not provide protection. The key takeaway is caution and avoiding emotional decisions! As always, adaptability and risk management matter more than trying to predict outcomes in a highly unstable environment.

We discuss...

• Markets are behaving like March Madness, with unpredictability, momentum shifts, and broken narratives replacing earlier optimism around a soft landing.
• Geopolitical conflict and unclear information flows are driving volatility, making it difficult to distinguish truth from market-moving narratives.
• The market appears to be pricing in a short-lived conflict, despite ongoing uncertainty and mixed signals.
• Traditional diversification is less reliable as correlations between stocks and bonds have increased in recent years.
• Energy has emerged as the primary outperformer, while most other sectors struggle amid rising costs and uncertainty.
• Financial system risks are building, particularly in private credit and banking exposure, signaling potential stress beneath the surface.
• Consumer strength is weakening as higher costs and debt begin to pressure spending behavior.
• Housing remains a major concern, with rising supply and weak demand due to elevated mortgage rates.
• Market movements often contradict headlines, reinforcing the need to observe price action rather than rely on media narratives.
• "Buy the dip" strategies are risky in uncertain or potentially bearish environments.
• Sitting in cash or staying defensive can be a strategic choice when market direction is unclear.
• Predictions from Wall Street are often overly optimistic and fail to account for downside risks.
• Volatility and confusion in markets are often the result of mispriced uncertainty rather than clear economic deterioration.
• Successful investing in this environment requires adaptability, patience, and disciplined risk management rather than bold predictions.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/war-and-no-market-crash-801

Elliott Holland is back with us to help us explore today's investing landscape. We discuss concerns about illiquidity, continuation funds, and efforts to expand private equity access into retirement accounts such as 401(k)s, as those moves may be driven by a need for liquidity rather than investor benefit. We also talk how investor psychology, ego, and exclusivity often influence capital allocation, while experienced investors should focus instead on fundamentals like who has better information in a transaction and whether there are multiple ways to win in an investment. We dive into emerging areas like search funds, small business acquisitions, and roll-up strategies, highlighting both their potential and risks. There is importance to patience in investing, as technologies like AI may reshape research, decision-making, and competitive advantages for investors and business owners.

We discuss...

• Whether private equity still deserves its reputation as producing the smartest investors and best returns in finance.
• Private equity returns have declined over the past decade and in many cases barely outperform the S&P 500.
• Mezzanine debt is highlighted as an alternative that has historically produced better returns with less risk and shorter lockups than private equity.
• Continuation funds and other mechanisms allow private equity firms to extend holding periods when they cannot find buyers.
• Some private equity firms are struggling with liquidity because they cannot exit deals at the valuations they promised investors.
• Illiquid investments with mediocre returns may not be worth the long lockup periods required.
• How exclusivity and the desire to invest alongside prestigious managers can lead investors to overlook fundamentals.
• How Wall Street often profits regardless of whether the underlying investments succeed.
• The Stanford model of funded search funds is historically producing strong reported returns.
• Increased competition for small business deals may be inflating prices and reducing returns.
• In some cases sellers may misrepresent financial performance to attract inexperienced buyers.
• Roll-ups can work when a larger buyer eventually acquires the combined platform at a premium valuation.
• Real estate is an example where multiple exit paths can justify accepting illiquidity.
• Periods of market stress often create the best opportunities for patient investors.
• Investors often regret not having enough capital ready during market downturns.
• The conversation also examines how smaller investors may have advantages over large institutions in finding niche deals.
• How new technologies and economic changes may create opportunities for the next generation of investors.
• AI is described as a productivity tool that can accelerate research and idea development, though AI outputs are not always reliable and require human judgment.
• Experienced professionals who combine domain knowledge with AI tools may gain a major advantage.
• Leaders should ensure someone within their organization is actively monitoring AI developments.
• Investors and entrepreneurs should stay curious, patient, and disciplined while adapting to changing markets and technologies.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/todays-investing-landscape-elliott-holland-800

Private credit could be the next black swan and we're going to break it down for you. We also discuss the ongoing war and how geopolitical uncertainty is affecting financial markets, investor psychology, and economic conditions. Misinformation, AI-generated content, and media bias make it difficult to know what is actually happening amidst the "fog of war", which increases market uncertainty. Markets have reacted with volatility rather than a sharp crash, highlighting unexpected moves such as a stronger U.S. dollar, mixed performance across sectors, and spikes in oil prices that could fuel inflation. Risk management is of the upmost importance during uncertain periods and investors should reassess their theses, reduce exposure when necessary, and consider holding cash until clearer trends emerge. We also talk broader economic risks including rising credit balances, potential policy mistakes by central banks, and structural concerns in areas like private credit and financial sector exposure.

We discuss...

• The ongoing war has created uncertainty and a wide range of opinions about its political and economic implications.
• The S&P 500 has only modestly declined so far, suggesting markets have not fully priced in the potential risks.
• Traditional market expectations have been challenged, such as the U.S. dollar strengthening instead of weakening.
• Oil prices have spiked due to geopolitical tensions, raising concerns about inflation and broader economic impacts.
• Energy has been the strongest-performing sector while many other sectors have struggled.
• Risk management should come before return-seeking when uncertainty is high.
• Investors should not hesitate to move to cash when market conditions become unclear.
• Crowded trades in war-related assets like energy, defense, and gold could reverse if sentiment shifts.
• The potential for consumer stress is highlighted, including rising credit card balances and higher costs from energy prices.
• Rising mortgage rates are a factor that could freeze housing activity during the spring selling season.
• Geopolitical risk is increasingly being priced into markets after years of relative stability.
• The current environment may represent a shift away from the low-rate, liquidity-driven market regime of the past decade.
• Policy mistakes by governments or central banks could become a bigger risk than the war itself.
• There are potential risks in the private credit sector, particularly due to limited regulation and transparency.
• Private credit has replaced some traditional bank lending since the 2008 financial crisis.
• Redemption freezes in private credit funds could signal stress in the system.
• Patience, discipline, and careful portfolio management are essential during periods of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/the-next-black-swan-799

Jade Miller is here to discuss the pros and cons of alternative investments. Jade shares her journey to becoming the CEO of the Alternative & Direct Investment Securities Association (ADISA), her background in private markets, and ADISA's role in advocating for and expanding access to alternatives for financial advisors and investors.

We explore the growing push to include alternative investments in 401(k) plans, investor misunderstanding, and potential regulatory challenges. We also talk the importance of thorough due diligence, common red flags, and the need for greater transparency from fund managers.

We discuss...

• Jade Miller discusses her background in private markets, primarily real estate, and her transition to becoming the first CEO of the ADISA.
• ADISA's mission is to advocate for alternative investments, provide education and due diligence standards, and connect financial advisors with alternative investment managers.
• The alternatives industry is shifting from limited access for wealthy investors toward broader availability, including potential inclusion in 401(k) retirement plans.
• Large institutional managers are likely to dominate 401(k) alternative offerings rather than smaller private fund sponsors.
• Liquidity constraints and fund structures such as interval and tender-offer funds will likely shape how alternatives are implemented inside retirement plans.
• Illiquid investments in retirement accounts can carry a higher risk of fraud or poor diligence because the capital is often locked up for long periods.
• Increased transparency and reporting expectations from investors are pushing alternative fund managers to provide more detailed disclosures.
• Financial advisors play a key role in helping investors assess alternative opportunities and navigate complex investment structures.
• Unrealistically high projected returns and lightly vetted crowdfunding deals can be major warning signs for investors.
• Real estate is highlighted as a foundational alternative asset due to its tangible nature, income potential, and long-term demand.
• Alternative investments can offer meaningful tax advantages, including depreciation benefits, opportunity zone incentives, and oil and gas deductions.
• Roth conversion strategies can sometimes be enhanced through private investments that temporarily reduce valuation during development stages.
• Investors and financial advisors who ignore alternative investments risk falling behind as the asset class becomes a larger part of diversified portfolios.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Marc Walton | Forex Mentor Pro

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There's war in the middle east and there will be huge impacts on your portfolio! Today we talk about how war-related uncertainty and conflicting economic signals are creating unusual market behavior, making it difficult for investors to interpret short-term movements. Broad market declines across many asset classes can indicate de-leveraging rather than money simply rotating elsewhere, and geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, weakening job data, and potential stagflation risks are adding pressure to the economy.

While some sector rotation into energy, commodities, and defensive assets is occurring, be wary that wartime conditions disrupt normal market trends, making strategies like "buying the dip" risky. Now is the time for risk management as preserving capital during periods of uncertainty is often more important than trying to time short-term market moves.

We discuss...

• How misinformation, AI-generated content, and limited reliable sources make it difficult to understand what is actually happening during geopolitical conflicts.
• How negative political messaging often backfires psychologically because the human brain tends to ignore the word "not" and focus on the core concept.
• The unusually volatile week in markets, where prices swung sharply day-to-day despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.
• Markets do not always react logically to major events like wars, with assets sometimes moving in unexpected directions.
• A key explanation for broad market declines was de-leveraging, where leveraged positions are unwound and excess liquidity effectively disappears from the system.
• Investors rarely know the full reasons behind short-term market movements because many institutional trades occur behind the scenes.
• "Buying the dip" works in bull markets but can lead to significant losses during bear markets or uncertain environments.
• During wartime conditions traditional market frameworks often break down, making predictions especially unreliable.
• Reduce risk exposure and avoid aggressive trades until geopolitical uncertainty becomes clearer.
• Recent economic data show job losses and rising unemployment, which adds pressure to an already fragile economic outlook.
• Capital is rotating into defensive areas such as energy, commodities, defense stocks, and gold.
• Market rotations are normal in healthy markets but can become distorted when geopolitical shocks occur.
• Holding cash can be a strategic decision during uncertain markets rather than a missed opportunity.
• How falling interest rates could eventually lower mortgage rates and trigger more activity in the housing market.
• Investors should focus on protecting capital and managing downside risk during periods of extreme uncertainty.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/investors-are-fleeing-into-this-sector-797

Jose Mayora, author of Wall Street's Blind Spots, a new book about the realities of value investing in a market dominated by mega-cap growth stocks, explains that true value investing is not about low P/E ratios but about buying businesses at a meaningful discount to intrinsic value.

He emphasizes disciplined, bottom-up research, geographic and sector diversification, and concentrated portfolios to uncover overlooked opportunities. We also explore the psychological challenges of investing through crashes and euphoric markets, the tension between patience and performance when managing other people's money, and the risks of over-investment.

We discuss...

• Jose Mayora shares his background in investment banking, economics, earning the CFA, and co-founding DeVita Valley Growth Fund with a disciplined value-oriented philosophy.
• The discussion highlights how traditional value strategies have lagged during the dominance of mega-cap tech stocks, particularly the "Magnificent Seven," over the past decade.
• Mayora emphasizes that avoiding high-multiple stocks purely on valuation optics can cause investors to miss strong businesses compounding at high rates.
• The conversation underscores the importance of remaining impartial and avoiding confirmation bias from sell-side research, headlines, or popular narratives.
• Mayora argues that concentrated portfolios of 10–16 positions are more realistic for true value investing, as finding dozens of genuine bargains in expensive markets is unlikely.
• We examine how broad market crashes create opportunity because markets become indiscriminate, often punishing high-quality companies alongside weaker ones.
• Historical examples like Google during the 2008–2009 crisis illustrate how strong businesses temporarily trade at compelling valuations during downturns.
• The psychological challenge of buying low-quality "junk" stocks for sharper rebounds versus sticking with durable high-quality companies is debated.
• They discuss how long recoveries—such as after the dot-com crash—can test investor patience even when valuations are compelling.
• Mayora explains that maintaining close communication and philosophical alignment with investors helps navigate inevitable periods of underperformance.
• They debate missed opportunities in large-cap tech and the difficulty of staying disciplined when high-momentum stocks dominate returns.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors
• Marc Walton | MarcWalton.com

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/wall-street-blind-spots-jose-mayora-796

There is a sector rotation happening and today we're here to discuss it! We also touch on the sudden U.S. conflict with Iran as this is not the time to start reacting emotionally to early headlines, misinformation, and media fear cycles. Keep in mind historical market reactions to prior military strikes; while volatility typically spikes, equity drawdowns have historically been modest and short-lived unless oil supply or credit markets break down.

We also highlight that markets are driven more by liquidity and capital flows than headlines and investors should focus on historical patterns, sector positioning, bond duration strategy, and risk management rather than panic, while closely watching oil prices, credit spreads, and bond yields for signs of deeper systemic stress.

We discuss...

• The concept of the "fog of war," warning listeners not to trust early reports, viral videos, or emotionally charged headlines.
• Media outlets monetize fear and that investors should avoid panic-driven decisions.
• Historical data from past U.S. military strikes was reviewed, showing that market drawdowns are typically modest and short-lived.
• Oil prices spiked on geopolitical risk, but the move was framed as a fear premium rather than confirmed supply disruption.
• The U.S. dollar was expected to strengthen in the short term as capital seeks safe-haven assets.
• Sector rotation was highlighted, with money moving out of mega-cap tech and into energy, materials, and defensive sectors.
• Utilities, staples, and healthcare were identified as traditional late-cycle or risk-off sectors.
• If capital exits large tech allocations, there are limited sectors large enough to absorb those flows without major price distortions.
• Bonds were presented as increasingly attractive if interest rates begin to decline.
• Long-duration bonds tend to benefit most when yields fall due to the inverse price-yield relationship.
• Lower mortgage rates were projected as a possibility, which could reignite housing demand but also drive home prices higher again.
• Markets are driven more by liquidity and money flows than by headlines or fundamentals alone.
• Investors should focus on second- and third-order effects rather than reacting to the immediate shock of war.
• Credit spreads, bond yields, and oil prices are key indicators to monitor for signs of systemic stress.
• Remain disciplined, historically grounded, and risk-aware rather than emotionally reactive.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/sector-rotation-795