Weekly wrap up of the markets, analysis, weather, and guest interviews
Panelists
- Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com
- Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing.com
- Jim McCormick, AgMarket.net
The April 16 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason, featured panelists Naomi Blohm, Greg Johnson, and Jim McCormick analyzing the current agricultural market landscape and the geopolitical factors influencing it. A primary focus was the potential shift in planting acres from corn to soybeans across the Midwest, driven by elevated input costs—specifically diesel and fertilizer—and compounded by heavy spring rainfall delaying field work. These fertilizer price spikes are being exacerbated by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, which have trapped shipping vessels in the Persian Gulf and prompted countries like India to heavily subsidize and secure global fertilizer supplies. The panel also evaluated grain marketing strategies, with Greg Johnson noting farmers still may be holding roughly 30% to 35% of their old crop corn in anticipation of a price rally. However, the experts warned that unless significant weather issues or war-driven crude oil spikes emerge by mid-summer, old crop basis could crash as elevators reach capacity ahead of the fall harvest. Consequently, they urged producers to consider moving their remaining grain sooner rather than later to avoid logistical bottlenecks and dropping prices.
★ Support this podcast ★Panelists
- Shane Holtorf, Logic Ag Marketing
- Chuck Shelby, RMCommodities a Div of Zaner
- Ted Seifried, Zaner Ag Hedge
Panelists
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net
- Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing
- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com
Panelists
- Dave Chatterton, SFarmMarketing.com
- Greg Johnson, TGM TotalFarmMarketing.com
- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
The March 26 edition of Commodity Week features host Todd Gleason with analysts Dave Chatterton, Curt Kimmel, and Greg Johnson.
The panel identifies the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, specifically involving Iran, as the primary driver of current market volatility. This "headline risk" is dictating money flow, inflating energy markets, and elevating fertilizer costs. The analysts note that if the conflict is prolonged, as expected, high input costs will persist into the 2027 crop year.
Regarding crop marketing, all analysts recommend that producers execute new crop sales to capitalize on the current price rally, which has pushed levels above break-even and crop insurance guarantees. Greg Johnson specifically advises producers to be 40-50% sold on soybeans and 25-30% sold on corn, citing the potential for heavy soybean acreage and significant South American competition. Curt Kimmel emphasizes the necessity of utilizing defensive hedging and price floors to manage the extreme market volatility.
The panel anticipates the upcoming EPA Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) and Small Refinery Exemptions (SRE) announcements may trigger a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" market reaction, as positive expectations appear to be already priced into the market. Dave Chatterton warns that the market build-up into the announcement naturally positions it for disappointment.
Ahead of the USDA Prospective Plantings report, acreage estimates center around 94 to 94.5 million acres for corn and 86 million acres for soybeans. Dave Chatterton notes that high input costs may push some marginal acres to soybeans, particularly in areas like the Dakotas or Southern Illinois where pre-buying fertilizer is less common.
Weather conditions across growing regions present a sharp contrast. Topsoil moisture in the Eastern Corn Belt is adequate for early planting. Conversely, severe drought in the Western Plains—specifically Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska—is actively deteriorating the hard red winter wheat crop, a factor the panel continues to monitor closely.
Panelists
- Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing
- Seth Vander Weide, Logic Ag Marketing
- Sherman Newlin, Risk Management Commodities Zaner Financial
All Day Ag Outlook Corn Panel
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net
- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Brian Stark, AndersonsGrain.com
- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com
...from the All Day Ag Outlook
- Ellen Dearden, AgReview
- Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing
- Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing
Panelists
- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Dave Chatterton, SFarmMarketing.com
All Day Ag Outlook Tuesday, March 3
The Beef House in Covington, Indiana
$40 @ go.illinois.edu/alldayagoutlook
Panelists
- Jim McCormick, AgMarket.net
- Logan Kimmel, RoachAg.com
Panelists
- Ellen Dearden, AgReview
- Arlan Suderman, StoneX.com
- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com
Panelists
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net
- Greg John, TotalGrainMarket.com
- Sherman Newlin, RMCommodities.com