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Genuine buyers. Real offers. But some vendors held out for more. 

There’s a fine line between holding your ground and ignoring the market. 

0:00 — Two from six: my auction results
0:41 — Holding your nerve or ignoring the market?
1:11 — Auction results around Australia
1:51 — What’s selling—and what’s getting found out
2:22 — Interest rate concerns ahead of Tuesday
2:52 — Hope is not a strategy
3:33 — Unintended consequences. Very real pain.
4:02 — Why public frustration doesn’t guarantee political defeat
4:40 — Political promises versus household reality
5:03 — My message to vendors, buyers and agents

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One solid auction day is encouraging - but the real turning point comes when inflation cools, rate-rise fear fades and buyers stop feeling like they’re catching a falling knife.

• 00:00 — My auction results
• 01:24 — Why it could get worse before it gets better
• 02:43 — What needs to happen before rates fall
• 03:48 — Bargains versus the fear of a falling knife
• 04:43 — How to spot a market bottom
• 05:51 — Clearance rates, buyer competition and discounting
• 08:08 — Unsold stock and the interest rate outlook
• 09:58 — Confidence returns — but markets recover at different times

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Two auctions, two sales. But until inflation breaks, buyers will keep sitting on their hands.

New listings have vendors who are far more realistic, particularly those that have the three D’s. Death. Debt. Divorce. These vendors sell.

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Buyers can see value, but they’re worried about what comes next. 

In this week’s market wrap, I discuss buyer nerves, mortgage pressure and why realistic sellers are getting deals done.

0:00 — One auction, no bids: buyers remain cautious
1:33 — Value is emerging—but will prices fall further?
3:51 — Why mortgage pain could feel worse than the GFC
6:01 — New listings vs old listings: pricing makes the difference
7:41 — How unemployment & inflation will affect the next RBA decision

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A Tamarama property sold at a mortgagee auction today for around $20.2 million, after selling for roughly $29.2 million in 2021. 

That’s a brutal reminder: The market doesn’t care what you paid, or what you still owe.

In this Saturday market wrap, I talk about rate rise fears, falling borrowing power and why a cheaper property can still be harder to afford. 

There are opportunities for buyers with cash and staying power. But if you’re under pressure to sell, waiting for the market to turn carries its own risk.

Nobody rings a bell at the bottom. 

Make the decision that works for your finances.

• 0:00 Tamarama mortgagee sale: roughly $9 million below its 2021 price
• 0:44 Cash is king, and the market is at a knife’s edge
• 1:19 How many more rate rises could be coming?
• 1:55 What I’m seeing in Sydney and Melbourne
• 3:02 Who bears the pain of fighting inflation?
• 4:23 Recession fears and what the 1990s felt like
• 6:13 Buying opportunities when fear takes hold
• 6:49 Why trying to pick the bottom is so difficult
• 8:26 The borrowing power paradox
• 9:41 My first spring Saturday without an auction in over 30 years
• 10:55 My take for buyers and sellers right now

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Today, I called 4 auctions and sold 2. Last week, it was two from two. 

Buyer activity is improving, but rising stock and the threat of further interest-rate increases could kill the momentum.

My advice to sellers: if you have a qualified buyer today, be very careful about losing them over another $20,000. Their finance approval and borrowing capacity may look very different in 90 days.

And for first-home buyers, waiting for prices to fall could backfire if your borrowing capacity falls even faster.

The market may be showing signs of life, but rate rises could stop the recovery before it gets going.

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Victoria’s auction rules are changing, and agents need to understand exactly what changes in practice.

In this session with REIV CEO Toby Balazs, you’ll learn about:

• The new Property Price Statement
• The seven-day reserve disclosure requirements
• What happens with pre-auction offers
• When a private sale can become a fixed-date sale, and 
• What vendors can and can’t do with their reserve on auction day.

You’ll also get practical guidance on paper trails, compliance, vendor bidding, offers prior to auction and the scenarios most likely to catch agents off guard.

Resources:
- Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV)
- Victorian Consumer Affairs (CAV) Guidelines and Resources

**Disclaimer:** This content is for general educational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial or professional advice. Information and opinions were current at the time of recording. Please verify all requirements with Consumer Affairs Victoria, the REIV or a qualified adviser before acting. To the extent permitted by law, Tom Panos Pty Ltd accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this content.

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Learn how to protect property transactions in a tougher market. Jared Zak explains the tenfold rise in buyer defaults, the risks of buying before selling, subject-to-sale and sunset clauses, deposit flicking, and a FREE AI contract review tool: https://www.dottandcrossitt.com.au/services/first-review

This is essential viewing for agents who want to reduce risk, protect clients and do the right thing.

• 00:00 – Introduction and market overview
• 02:17 – Why more property deals are falling apart
• 03:45 – Buyer defaults have increased tenfold
• 04:40 – What happens when a buyer defaults?
• 06:01 – The risks of accepting a 5% deposit
• 07:17 – Can an auction sale include a cooling-off period?
• 09:47 – The dangers of buying before selling
• 13:15 – How subject-to-sale clauses protect buyers
• 14:55 – How sunset clauses protect vendors
• 16:34 – The risks of chained property transactions
• 21:03 – What is deposit flicking?
• 24:38 – Who is liable if the deposit disappears?
• 25:52 – Free AI tool for reviewing property contracts: https://www.dottandcrossitt.com.au/services/first-review
• 28:35 – Victoria’s new auction rules from October 1
• 32:53 – Falling sales volumes and the industry-wide impact
• 34:39 – Compliance is crushing agent productivity

Jared Zak is the Principal Solicitor & Founder of Dott & Crossitt. He has around 20 years of experience in law and finance.

This is sponsored by LocalAgentFinder


*DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this video is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personal legal advice. Tom Panos Pty Ltd does not accept any liability for decisions made based on the information provided and strongly encourages viewers to seek independent professional legal advice tailored to their specific circumstances.

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01:00 — Why buyers should get finance approved now
02:01 — Australia’s housing shortage
03:28 — Could two rate rises trigger a recession?
04:33 — Agents are leaving the industry
06:06 — Marrickville sells $500K over reserve
07:13 — Burwood also sells over reserve
08:28 — Has the market stopped falling?
09:07 — The truth about collapsing auction volumes
11:27 — Are auction bookings finally returning?

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It's Super Saturday, and I conducted zero auctions!

Five months after the budget, the warning signs are everywhere: developers are going broke, housing supply is collapsing, first-home buyer activity has fallen, and property volumes are down 25–30%.

0:46 — The government must confront the consequences
1:16 — Why first-home buyers aren’t benefiting
4:04 — Banks sound the alarm on housing supply
5:42 — Why confidence in auctions has collapsed
6:22 — Withdrawals and the prospect of more rate rises
7:59 — The industry’s real concern is volume
8:42 — The next interest-rate decision

Plus, this is the deposit scheme the Government doesn't talk about: The 2% Deposit Scheme 

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The final weekend of Winter tells the story: 

• Clearance rates are soft
• Volumes are still well down
• Spring stock is coming

I think the rest of 2026 will remain a buyer’s market, with some outstanding opportunities as older listings build up towards Christmas.

2027 could be where the next property cycle begins!