Fossil fuels still dominate the world’s energy supplies. Do we need different terminology to talk about what’s happening?

We talk about “the energy transition” all the time. But is that language misleading? 20 years ago fossil fuels were 85% of the world’s energy, today they’re just a few percentage points less. If there is a transition to low-carbon energy, it is happening only slowly, and it needs to move much faster to achieve the climate goals of the Paris Agreement. The world has made huge strides in both the cost and deployment of renewable energy, but can we really say that we are in a transition away from fossil fuels?

Host Ed Crooks is joined by Melissa Lott, a professor at Columbia University’s Climate School, and Amy Myers Jaffe, director of NYU’s Energy, Climate Justice, and Sustainability Lab, to discuss the way the language we use shapes our ideas about energy policy. Amy quotes her Tufts University colleague (and previous guest on the show) Kelly Sims Gallagher: “climate doom and gloom really disregards the progress that's been made”. That progress includes 56 countries, between them responsible for over half of global emissions, passing direct climate mandates to limit greenhouse gases.

But despite all that action, we still get the great majority of our energy from fossil fuels. The gang debate whether the current global shift towards low-carbon energy represents a real "transition", or maybe even a “transformation”. Or is it merely an addition of new energy sources on top of the existing ones such as oil and gas.

Ed, Amy and Melissa debate the feasibility of achieving net zero by 2050, considering the political and economic hurdles ahead. Innovations including carbon pricing, electrification, and advances in renewable energy technologies will play prominent roles in shifting us towards cleaner energy systems. Will they be enough?

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Conversations from the Gulf Coast Power Association conference. 

This bonus episode of the Energy Gang was recorded live during the spring meeting of the Gulf Coast Power Association in Houston, Texas. Host Ed Crooks is joined by Beth Garza, President of the Gulf Coast Power Association, Frank O'Sullivan, Managing Director for Clean Energy at S2G Ventures, and Ken Medlock, Senior Director at the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University. The GCPA is a nonprofit organization dedicated to promoting a strong energy industry in the Texas and Gulf Coast region.

First up Ed speaks with Beth about the increase in electricity demand in the region. Unlike most of the US, the Gulf of Mexico coastal region has already been seeing growth in demand for electricity over past couple of decades. But now there are signs that this growth is being kicked into a higher gear as a result of a wave of new data centers, manufacturing facilities and LNG plants. We discuss the challenges and opportunities in this new era.

Increasing strain on the Texas grid is one problem. The catastrophic consequences of Winter Storm Uri in February 2021, in part caused by failures in natural gas supply and gas-fired generation, exposed how the system was unprepared for such an event. Beth Garza discusses the changes that have been made in the three years since then, and how the industry can tackle the new challenges facing the grid.

Plus, Frank O’Sullivan and Ken Medlock join Ed on stage for a panel discussion on strategies for integrating new technologies as the demand for power rises. They debate the key trends in electricity demand growth, and the ability of Texas as a deregulated competitive market to respond to these new opportunities and difficulties.

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As half the world heads to the polls, how important will the results be for efforts to cut emissions?

Over half the world lives in a country that will be holding an election this year. The votes come at a time when resistance to the energy transition is building in many parts of the world, as concerns around energy security grow and some of the challenges of decarbonization come into focus. In the US, a finely-balanced election offers voters two sharply differing visions of the energy future. But there are other places around the world where elections could also shape the direction of energy policy, including the EU, where parties that are skeptical of climate action are on course to win an increased number of seats in the European Parliament.

To explore the ramifications of these key elections around the world, host Ed Crooks is joined by Energy Gang regular Amy Myers Jaffe, director of New York University’s Energy, Climate Justice, and Sustainability Lab, and by Vijay Vaitheeswaran, global energy & climate innovation editor at The Economist. The show is recorded live from NYU, as the gang take part in discussions on the outlook for elections and energy policy in 2024.

Together they debate the potential consequences of the US election for issues including permitting reform clean energy tax credits, and look at some other significant votes around the world, in India, Mexico, the European parliament among others.

While other countries are arguing over the right course for energy policy, China is betting big on low-carbon technologies, adding a huge amount of manufacturing capacity in solar, EVs and lithium ion batteries. Those are what the Chinese government calls “the new three” sectors, intended to drive export growth, and they are having a far-reaching impacts on energy all around the world.

The Biden administration has pinned its climate policy on using support for low-carbon energy to incentivize manufacturing investment and create well-paying jobs. But with China adding so much capacity in key sectors, sending prices for products such as solar panels tumbling, the challenges facing that strategy are growing. That is an issue that will play out in elections in the US and elsewhere this year: what does it mean for clean energy globally if China continues to dominate the competition?

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Big power users are getting together to accelerate the development of advanced clean energy technologies.

The hottest topic in energy right now is the expected surge in demand for electricity. Data centers for AI, new factories, and electric vehicles are driving power consumption higher in the US, after about 15 years of stagnation. Solar and wind power can meet some of that increased demand, but many users, including data centers, want clean electricity round the clock. So there is a new urgency in the need for new clean energy technologies, including advanced nuclear, next-generation geothermal, low-carbon hydrogen, and long duration storage.

Unlike wind and solar, these emerging technologies have not yet been deployed at scale, and they are generally have much higher costs. There is a chicken-and-egg problem: costs will only come down as these technologies scale up, but companies are reluctant to deploy them because they are too expensive.

Now Google, Microsoft and Nucor have come up with an idea that could be at least part of the solution. They are collaborating on new commercial structures to help new clean energy technologies scale up and reduce the risk for investors.

To discuss that plan, host Ed Crooks is joined by regular guest Dr Melissa Lott, professor at the climate school at Columbia University, and Michael Webber of the University of Texas at Austin. Michael is also chief technology officer at Energy Impact Partners, which is a $3 billion venture fund that invests in some of these emerging technologies. Together they debate the consequences of that surging demand for electricity, and the role of new technologies in avoiding disastrous outcomes for our international climate goals.

They also talk about another promising source of clean energy: natural hydrogen, which is found in geologic reservoirs rather than being made from water or from methane. The US Geological Survey estimates there could be 5 trillion tons of natural hydrogen in rocks around the world; a vast, untapped energy reserve that could significantly contribute to meeting global low carbon hydrogen needs.

Given that a world with net zero emissions could use about 500 million tons of low-carbon hydrogen a year, that is a very exciting resource base. But is it really plausible that natural hydrogen could be viable as a significant contribution to clean energy supplies? The energy gang has some answers.

There’s an urgent need for innovative solutions to tackle rising energy demand. Join the discussion on X – we’re @theenergygang

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AI isn’t just threatening to take our jobs, it’s also draining our electricity.

Data centres centers used to have power demand measured in the tens of megawatts. Now they are in the hundreds of megawatts, and the new ones that are being proposed have demand in the thousands of megawatts: gigawatts. At the Distributech conference in Feburary, Harry Sideris of Duke Energy said it used to be a big deal when they had a customer wanting to add 10MW or 20MW of load. Now they have several planned data centers for AI needing 1000MW each. How is this additional demand being met?  

The good news, from a climate point of view, is that part of the answer is going to be a lot more solar and wind power, and energy storage. The bad news is that, according to the plans that US utilities are setting out, there are going to be more gas-fired power plants, too. US gas-fired generation capacity is on course to rise by 25% over the next 15 years, and although those plants will increasingly be used mainly to back up variable solar and wind power, they still mean that the chances of achieving net zero emissions from electricity by 2035 look slim. 

On this episode of Wood Mackenzie's The Energy Gang, Ed Crooks is joined by Amy Myers-Jaffe, Director of NYU’s Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab, who returns to the show to explore the feasible paths to net zero in light of increased energy demand. Also joining this week is Samantha Gross, Director of the Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the Brookings Institution. Together they debate the outlook for electricity demand, and take stock of the implications for theclimate goals of the Paris Agreement.

One big question: Is it time to give up on the objective of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C? The world looks like crossing that threshold soon. In fact, on one measure, we have already crossed it. The 1.5 degrees C limit has been seen as essential to avoid the worst effects of climate change. But John Kerry, who just stepped down as President Joe Biden’s climate envoy, said recently that the world was on course for more like 2.5 degrees of warming. Many businesses still have alignment with a 1.5 degree scenario as one of their climate goals. Ed, Amy and Samantha discuss whether it’s time to face reality and set new goals that are more likely to be achievable. 

And finally, more evidence that despite all the negative commentary around EVs, on a global scale the industry is doing just fine. In China, sales are surging and prices are falling. Sales of what China calls “new energy vehicles” – that is, battery electrics, plug-in hybrids, and fuel cell vehicles – were up 37.5% in the first two months of 2024 compared with the same period of 2023. In that period – January and February of 2024 – those New Energy Vehicles took 33.5% of the car market. The prices are on the way down too. Reuters has calculated that BYD has cut the prices of its EVs by an average of 17%. This seems like great news for cutting emissions and eventually decarbonizing road transport. But what does it mean for the car industries in other countries?

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This bonus episode of Wood Mackenzie’s The Energy Gang is our third from the Distributech conference in Orlando.

Distributech is the leading event for the electricity transmission and distribution industry in North America. It gave our host Ed Crooks a fantastic opportunity to talk to many of the leading figures from the industry, including those who provide technology for moving and managing electricity, and those who use that technology to serve their customers.

In this episode, Ed is joined by Ali Ipakchi, Executive VP of Smart Grids and Green Power at OATI, a grid technology company. Ali was at Dtech in 2014, and some of the issues he was talking about then seem familiar still today. So what has really changed in technology for the power industry since then? Ali talks about how ideas and technologies that were cutting-edge and radical a decade ago are now becoming mainstream.

Ed also sat down with Don McPhail, who’s Business Manager for energy and decarbonisation at Uplight, a software company that serves utilities. They talked about the importance of demand management, the integration of distributed energy resources, and the automation of customer engagement processes as examples of key factors for developing a more flexible and resilient power grid. 

Finally, Ed talked to two of Wood Mackensie’s delegates at Distributech: Fahimeh Kazempour, head of grid modernisation, and Elham Akhavan, senior research analyst specialising in grid edge and microgrids. They share their impressions of the events, highlight some of the ideas and innovations they found most interesting, and explore the implications for the wider questions of the energy transition. 

They also address a critical question in the hectic, exciting conversation about the power industry: how much of it is hype, and how much reflects real change? Fahimeh asks the question: whatever happened to the Blockchain?

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On this episode of Wood Mackenzie's The Energy Gang: what the history of innovation in solar power and batteries can teach us about the right ways to support clean energy breakthroughs.

As the world moves towards a more sustainable energy future, government support is essential for research to develop new technologies, and for investment to deploy them at scale. But policymakers often seem to be blundering in the dark, grasping for policies that they hope will have the outcomes they want. So how do we know which strategies will be most effective for encouraging the progress we need, both to bring down the costs of existing technologies such as solar and wind power, and to create new breakthroughs in areas such as long-duration battery storage and nuclear power.

On today’s episode, host Ed Crooks and regular guest Melissa Lott are joined by newcomer Jessika Trancik, a professor of energy studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), to discuss the progress of clean energy technologies.

Jessika explains what we can learn from the success stories of the past half-century, such as solar panels and lithium ion batteries. Her work shows that a combination of government backing for R&D and market incentives for investment has been critical in driving innovation. In industries such as solar panels and batteries, where costs have plummeted, support for research and market signals such as feed-in tariffs have complemented each other, fostering competitive innovation in the private sector and delivering rapid progress in critical technologies.

The gang discuss electric vehicles as one example of a technology that is receiving plenty of government support. Melissa discusses some new data on US emissions, showing that while there was a decline overall last year, the transport sector saw an increase. Even so, there are plenty of positive signs for the transition in the data, she says. While the shift to EVs may slow, it is still moving forward. Jessika wrote recently that “switching to an electric vehicle is one of the most impactful changes that an individual can make to reduce their personal contribution to climate change, and she explains that view.

The costs of clean energy technologies aren’t limited to the price of the hardware. Soft costs, encompassing such items as labour, planning, permitting and logistics, can constitute a significant portion of the total expense. Inefficiencies in regulatory processes and in information-sharing can amplify these costs and contribute to delays in the adoption of new technologies.

Jessika has been researching into soft technologies, which can include things like software, process knowledge and project management methods, to see how they can contribute to cost reduction and project acceleration. She talks about her work, which you can find out more about on the MIT website at news.MIT.edu.

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When most people drive electric cars, what does that mean for the grid?

This bonus episode of Wood Mackenzie’s The Energy Gang is our second from the Distributech conference in Orlando. 

Distributech is the leading event for the electricity transmission and distribution industry in North America. It gave our host Ed Crooks a fantastic opportunity to talk to many of the leading figures from the industry, including those who provide technology for moving and managing electricity, and those who use that technology to serve their customers.

In this episode, Ed is joined by Quinn Nakayama, senior director of Grid Research Innovation and Development at Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) in California, to help us understand the transformative impact of electric vehicles on energy utilities and the grid. Quinn dives deep into the ways that the EV boom is shaking up customer relationships and forcing utility companies to take a fresh look at grid management.

California is at the cutting edge of the EV revolution, and Quinn explains how PG&E is tackling issues that many other utilities around the world will have to address, from ensuring grid resilience to maintaining customer trust. He also discusses cutting-edge vehicle-to-grid technology, and outlines the changing relationships between utilities and vehicle manufacturers. And he shines a light on the pivotal role played by regulators in this critical sector for the energy transition.

It’s an in-depth discussion on how the rise in EVs is forcing utilities to rethink infrastructure, optimise energy use, and plan for a very different future.

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What AI means for the energy transition in the electricity industry

Welcome to a special episode of Wood Mackenzie's The Energy Gang, recorded at the Distributech 2024 conference in Orlando. Distributech is the leading event in North America for the electricity transmission and distribution industry. It provides a fantastic opportunity to talk to the companies that provide technology for moving and managing electricity, and to the utilities and other companies that use that technology.

The impact of artificial intelligence is one of the central themes of the conference, and host Ed Crooks has been meeting industry leaders to discuss the implications of AI and other new technologies for the future of electricity. From the need for more power to supply data centers for AI applications, to the potential for AI tools for managing the grid, to the possible breakthroughs in nuclear power that could be discovered using AI, the speakers explore a vast range of possibilities. 

Hussein Shel, chief technologist for AWS (Amazon Web Services), talks about both the opportunities and the challenges of the new types of AI. Zack Kass, a futurist who was formerly a senior executive at OpenAI, discusses the prospect of an age of “energy abundance” that could be unlocked by sophisticated AI. He argues that abundance, possibly provided by nuclear fusion power, will be the way that the world can meet the increased demand for power created by advanced AI systems. 

Quinn Nakayama, the senior director of Grid Research Innovation and Development at the California utility PG&E, talks about the practical decisions involved in adopting AI technologies in today’s utilities. Tom Deitrich, chief executive of Itron, a supplier of technologies for utilities and cities to manage energy, water and traffic, joins Ed to discuss the increasingly urgent need for more advanced technologies in grid management. And finally, Anthony Allard, the head of Hitachi Energy’s North American business, talks about what they have been hearing from their customers in terms of two critical issues in the industry: the progress of digitalization, and shortages of critical equipment in the supply chain.

You can find us on most platforms: we’re @theenergygang. Subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts or Spotify so you don’t miss the next one, out every second Tuesday.

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There are no two ways around it: 2023 was a difficult year for low-carbon energy investment, and 2024 has so far carried on in very much the same vein.

Rising interest rates, fears around future energy policy, cost inflation in some sectors, and perhaps a correction to some earlier over-exuberance, have meant that shares in clean energy companies have generally under-performed the market.

To take a couple of high-profile examples, Tesla shares have fallen about 55% from their peak in 2021, while Ørsted shares are down about 75%.

Capital flows into climate-focused funds has also fallen sharply. Morningstar data suggested that climate-focused funds attracted about $38 billion of new investor money last year, down about 75% from 2021 levels. In the private markets, on the venture capital side, the flows into clean energy also seem to have fallen, if not quite as sharply.

To examine the reasons why low-carbon energy investment is having a rough time of it at the moment, and explore some of the more positive indications in the outlook, host Ed Crooks and regular guest Amy Myers-Jaffe are joined this week by newcomer Dan Goldman, Co-Founder & Managing Partner of Clean Energy Ventures. They discuss the huge shortfall in terms of the investment needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, and raise some ideas for closing the gap. And on the brighter side, they look at the healthy ecosystem of innovative companies working on new ideas that could solve the toughest problems in energy and climate.

Mobilizing capital will be the key to tackling the threat of global warming. How can we make sure the money flows where it is needed? 

Plus, two specific ideas that could make big contributions to decarbonizing the energy system. Grid-enhancing technologies can help overcome transmission capacity bottlenecks that are obstacles to the deployment of renewable energy. Dan's firm Clean Energy Ventures has invested in a company called LineVision that has provides those technologies, and he and Amy explain why they are important.

And finally, as the aviation industry continues to grapple with the best ways to cut emissions, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is a popular potential solution. The gang discuss the potential of companies like OXCCU, which is backed by Clean Energy Ventures, and the fundamental scientific challenges inherent to producing e-fuels from hydrogen and carbon dioxide. Keep an eye out for an upcoming episode with an in-depth look at SAF and OXCCU, on our sister podcast The Interchange.

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The US is the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), super-cooled to about -160 °C (or -260 °F) so it can be shipped in tankers. An investment boom means export capacity will soar over the next few years. But last month the Biden administration signaled it was putting the brakes on future growth, announcing a “pause” in new approvals for LNG plants to export to nations that don’t have a free trade agreement with the US.

This decision is expected to stall future US LNG projects by preventing them accessing key global markets including the EU, China, Japan, and the UK. The pause could be an issue in November’s elections: former President Donald Trump has said he would immediately restart approvals if elected.

On the show this week, Ed Crooks is joined by Melissa Lott, Director of Research at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, and Emily Grubert, Associate Professor of sustainable energy policy at the University of Notre Dame, to discuss the implications of the pause for both the US and the global energy market.

If the US is exporting less gas, what will that mean for buyers around the world? What will be the impact on global greenhouse gas emissions, and living standards in lower-income countries? And what are the Biden administration’s motivations in announcing the pause? The gang explore the issues.

Also on the show, the fuel that could replace natural gas, at least for some uses: hydrogen. There has been a lot of excitement over hydrogen, especially over green hydrogen made by electrolysing water, which could in principle have zero carbon emissions. But how green is it really?

The US Treasury and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) have had a go at answering that question, setting out practical rules for defining low-carbon hydrogen, so they can decide on eligibility for tax credits under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. 

Melissa, Emily and Ed debate whether these proposed rules make sense, and what they mean for the development of a low-carbon hydrogen industry in the US and around the world.

The Energy Gang is partnering with Distributech, the premier annual event for energy transmission and distribution. This year it’s in Orlando, Florida, from Februrary 26th. We’ll be recording a special episode from the event, which will be out on Thursday the 29th as the event wraps up. Claim 20% off your registration with the code DTPART33.

Articles referenced in this episode:

www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/consequences-of-the-pause-for-us-lng

www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/publications/advancing-corporate-procurement-zero-carbon-electricity-united-states-moving-re100-zc100/ 

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac71ba/meta 

www.nytimes.com/2023/08/07/opinion/oil-fossil-fuels-clean-energy.html

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