The first pass for US GDP for 1st Quarter 2024 was released last week. Today’s show dissects the areas generating growth vs. those slowing US economy. Takeaways from the data are discussed: Contracting now are consumer spending on goods, business private inventories and a big contraction in net exports. Only consumer spending on services continue to drive GDP as government spending slows but remains positive. The show explains why the 1.6% GDP rise in Jan-March was actually lower, once the adjustment for prices is more accurately estimated. Why and how the US low-balls inflation and thereby boosts real GDP. Real growth in US economy was therefore flat. The show then discusses why mainstream economists consistently get their forecasts of the economy wrong—prices, jobs, and GDP—because their forecast models contain multiple assumptions that are simply incorrect.

today’s show focuses on the theme of the impact of Russian sanctions since the start of the Ukraine war. How the sanctions have failed to impact Russia’s economy while simultaneously helping to wreck Europe’s, and especially the core German economy of the EU. A review of the relative economic data. Also discussed, are the pending US House vote tomorrow likely to pass another $100B in war aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, which will include reportedly US approval to distribute the $300B in seized Russian assets ($240B in Europe banks). This is how the US plans to continue financial support for Ukraine war in 2025, after the $61B ‘bridge’ fund in the US House bill. The show also addresses how US economic policies (of which sanctions are just a part) have undermined Germany’s economy and are making Europe increasingly dependent on the US. Discussion of the latest developments in the Israel-Iran and Ukraine wars concludes the show.

Today’s show covers the key events, economic & political, of the past week: US latest inflation numbers and trends, why Fed rate cuts are off the table, instability in regional banks and commercial real estate continue, Chase CEO Jamie Dimon’s remarks on rate hikes at 8% and ‘soft landing’ scenario, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in China. In Politics, whether war between Israel-USA with Iran is imminent, latest developments on French & NATO troops in Ukraine, the coming Russian big offensive in Kharkov, Russia’s talk of ‘unconditional surrender’ and Ukraine’s desperate manpower shortage and its new draft law.

2024 is junctural year in Ukraine war. All three parties’ strategies—US/NATO, Ukraine, Russia—are in flux and changing as fallout from Ukraine’s summer 2023 offensive defeat by Russia continues to reverberate in political terms and as Russia offensive in 2024 emerges. What were the parties respective strategies in 2022, how did they shift in 2023, and how are they about to change again in 2024 are discussed in today’s show. Some likely scenarios by year end 2024 and US elections in November. Has NATO already lost, as more analysts now saying? Will NATO intervene directly before it is? The intro to the show comments on the just released jobs report for March and what the numbers mean for rising US inflation since January, Fed interest rate policy, and the surging US interest on the US $34T debt.

How the US economy is different today from 1930s and becoming increasing so due to technological change, financialization, and other forces. Why 21st century US fiscal and monetary policies are increasingly inefficient, ineffective and exacerbating the deficits, US debt, and running up unsustainable interest payments on the debt. Income and Wealth inequality thresholds for the 1% in the US economy today. Challenges faced for the future hegemony of the US empire-not just China, not even BRICS, but entire global South. Role of US $ and other institutions. The new alternative global financial structure coming. Why the US/NATO are losing (have already lost) the Ukraine war. (Dr. Rasmus announces further discussion of these trends is available on his blog, jackrasmus.com, in the Youtube file of the 2 hr. interview he gave this week to the Freethinkers Forum).

 Latest on evidence of Moscow’s Mall Terrorist attack. Pros & Cons of evidence to date Ukraine sources’ involvement. Putin’s dire warning re. F-16s. Is Macron’s threat to send troops suspended? Will Europe re-arm and create its own defense industry? Euro economy stagnating vs. USA economy modest growth; Why is USA GDP positive in 2024? US recent Inflation statistics. Is the US Treasuries market growing unstable with $23T bonds issued in 2023? Janet Yellen in China and future of the US dollar.

Today’s show reviews 3 important speeches of the past week: by Putin, France’s president Macron, and US Senator, Chuck Shumer. Speeches related to the US 3 wars in progress: Ukraine, Israel-Gaza, and Yemen. The Macron speech, an interview, reflected his retreat from the threat to send French-NATO (along with Baltics & Czech) to Ukraine. Deeper, it reflects chaos within EU/NATO as what strategy to implement now that Russia is defeating Ukraine and Trump-US may leave Europe holding the Ukraine war bag. Putin’s reply to Macron was if he (Macron) says there’s no longer any ‘red lines’, then Russia has none as well, including use of nuclear arms if Russia’s existence is threatened. Putin repeated his oblique suggestion again that the ‘west’ may take western Ukraine, which never was part of the Slavic homeland. Third speech by Shumer ‘warned’ Netanyahu was ‘out of control’ and elections should take place in Israel, clearly a message from Biden. All 3 US wars (proxy or direct as in Yemen) all going poorly. Show concludes with another ‘3s’: 3 economic reports in the US (CPI, PPI, and Retail sales) all showing a chronic inflation and emerging real economy slowdown developing.

Following initial comments on the Federal Reserve’s just issued Monetary Report’s warning about bank assets declining in value, this week’s show focuses on the topic of how US Presidents become multimillionaires after leaving office. Corruption by politicians promises to be a major campaign theme on both sides in the election this year. Republicans and Democrats are pushing their stories: Trump’s tax avoidance & Biden’s kickbacks through his son, Hunter Biden’s connections with oligarchs in Ukraine since 2016. (On that latter, the show asks questions about the recent arrest and  ‘indefinite detainment’ of Alex Smirnov, the long time FBI informant who broke the news of the Hunter bribes by Ukrainian oligarchs). The show then identifies the various means by which US presidents typically become 7-figure multimillionaires after they leave office, citing examples from Reagan to Obama. The show concludes with some updates on the Ukraine war, including the EU’s plan to issue Euro-wide bonds to raise $54B for Ukraine and why it may not fly.

Today’s show is dedicated to a discussion of the current state of the War in Ukraine. The theme is an analysis of the military action and strategies of both sides since the February 2022 start of the war, using the benchmark of the Principles of War famously proposed by Von Clausewitz. Examined are the first Russian offensive of 2022 followed by the Ukrainian offensive later that year. Then the disastrous second Ukrainian offensive of fall 2023 that crashed on the rocks of Russia’s 2023 Defense in depth. What’s happened after fall 2023 to the present, as Russia’s second offensive now, in February 2024, appears to be rolling out in the east, with even bigger offensives emerging in the north and south. How do the Principles of War explain the seesaw military actions of the first two years of the war. The show ends discussing the new political strategies of NATO/US, Russia and Ukraine now in development as well.  (For a published print version of the topics of today’s show go to: https://jackrasmus.com/2024/02/26/ukraine-war-and-the-ghost-of-clausewitz/

 Today’s show looks at the important key economies of the world as a growing number begin to slip into recession: new data shows Japan’s economy has been contracting the past six months. Germany has entered recession. So too has the UK. The Eurozone economy as a whole is stagnant. Global manufacturing has been contracting for some months among the G7 economies. Meanwhile China faces growing problems in its property (construction) sector and with emerging deflation in consumer goods prices as producer prices also continue to fall for the past 16 months.  Rasmus notes China home sales are now 1/6 of their peak at end of 2021 and then explains why deflation is even more serious than inflation. In the US, retail sales have turned negative, manufacturing is stagnant, and housing remains down 40% from its prior peak. At the same time both consumer and producer prices have started to rise once again. Can the US economy reach a ‘soft landing’ when the rest of the world key economies are slowing or in recession? (Next Week: Ukraine War military and political analysis as we enter 3rd year of war Feb. 25, 2024. Why a larger Russian offensive is imminent)

 Dr. Rasmus analyzes the Tucker Carlson-Putin Interview in detail today. What did Putin say about the war, its causes, prospects and future of NATO?