Taiwan's delegates to the Our Ocean Conference scheduled to take place in the Kenyan port city of Mombasa next week will not be permitted to participate, according to a well-placed source. If this is the case, it would mark the third major setback for Taiwan in Africa over the past several weeks.

Last month, the digital rights conference Rightscon was canceled in Lusaka, in part due to pressure from the Chinese embassy to block the participation of a small group of delegates from Taiwan. Around the same time, three African Indian Ocean island states refused to grant Taiwan President Lai Ching-te permission to overfly for a scheduled trip to Eswatini.

Plus, Eric, Cobus & Géraud discuss how a labor dispute at a massive Chinese-run cobalt mine in the DRC came to an end and the latest in the U.S.-China critical minerals competition in Africa.

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• Taiwan's shrinking diplomatic space in Africa
• Kenya, China, and the Taiwan question
• Congo's critical minerals and coltan smuggling
• Labor unrest at a major Chinese-owned mine
• Resource nationalism vs. mining investment
• The global race for critical mineral supply chains

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque

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Dan Kobayashi spent 16 years working as a U.S. diplomat focused on African issues, both at posts in Lesotho, Zambia, and Malawi, among others, and at the State Department's intelligence bureau in Washington, D.C. He had a close-up view of how U.S.-Africa policy has evolved over the years, particularly as it relates to China's expanding presence on the continent.

Today, Dan is out of government and works as a geopolitical risk consultant in Geneva, where he also writes for his new Expatriach Substack. He joins Eric, Cobus, and Géraud to share an insider's perspective on the current state of U.S. policy towards Africa and why the notion that Washington is competing with Beijing for influence in the region is outdated.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

• Inside Washington's Africa policymaking
• Trump's changing approach to Africa
• The China "debt trap" debate
• U.S.-China competition in Africa
• Aid cuts, visas, and diplomacy
• What's next for U.S.-Africa relations?

Show Notes:

• Sign up to The Expatriach Substack
• Expatriarch: USAID Is Unlikely to Be Replaced With Something Better Any Time Soon, So Stop Pretending by Dan Kobayashi
• Expatriarch: My Resignation from the State Department by Dan Kobayashi

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

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• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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In this week's China in Africa podcast episode, which also serves as a Round Table episode, C. Geraud Neema and Cobus van Staden break down why Europe is increasingly concerned about Chinese investment in Morocco's electric vehicle industry supply chain, and whether Brussels is ignoring Morocco's own industrial strategy.

The conversation then turns to the Ebola outbreak in the DRC and Uganda, comparing the U.S. quarantine response with China's medical aid approach. The controversy in Kenya over a proposed U.S. Ebola facility shows how African public opinion toward Washington may be shifting in the post-USAID era.

Finally, new Afrobarometer data from Seychelles reveals howshows that India and China are gaining positive influence in the Indian Ocean, while the U.S. continues to fall behind.

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @stadenesque | @christiangeraud

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YouTube: www.youtube.com/@chinaglobalsouth

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Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

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The U.S. is rapidly reshaping its trade and industrial policies to build new critical mineral supply chains as part of a broader effort to reduce the country's dependence on China for these strategic resources. So far, however, most of Washington's deals have focused primarily on securing access to raw materials such as cobalt, lithium, and rare earths.

That alone may not be enough to compete with China, which has spent decades investing hundreds of billions of dollars in the infrastructure, processing capacity, and skilled workforce needed to build resilient supply chains.

Zainab Usman, senior research scholar and managing director of international programs at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, recently published a new paper examining how the U.S. is adapting its trade policies to strengthen its critical minerals strategy. She joins Eric and Géraud from Washington to discuss whether these efforts can realistically help the United States narrow the gap with China.

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• America's critical minerals strategy
• U.S.-China supply chain competition
• Why extraction alone isn't enough
• The infrastructure and workforce gap
• Trade policy as industrial policy
• Africa's role in the minerals race
• Can the U.S. catch up to China?

Show Notes:

• United Nations University: The International trade dimensions of the United States critical minerals security strategy by Zainab Usman
• Bloomberg Originals: The $10 Billion Hunt for the Rocks That Power the World
• Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions: Assessing the U.S.-China Competition for Minerals Crucial to the Development of Emerging Technologies

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

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• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Kenya's Court of Appeals issued a landmark ruling rejecting the government's decade-long effort to keep secret the $4.5 billion in China Exim Bank loan contracts used to finance the Standard Gauge Railway. The decision marks a major victory for civil society activists who have long argued that the project was plagued by corruption, opaque procurement practices, and unfavorable terms for Kenya.

Eric & Geraud also discuss how a growing dispute between Niger and Benin over a Chinese-backed oil pipeline is exposing the intersection of resource politics, security risks, and Beijing's evolving role in Africa's energy sector.

Finally, the discussion turns to China's new zero-tariff access for African exports, why many African governments may struggle to take full advantage of the opportunity, and how shifting global energy and trade dynamics are once again increasing the strategic importance of African infrastructure and commodities.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

1. Kenya's secret China railway loan contracts
2. Court ruling on SGR transparency
3. Niger-Benin pipeline dispute
4. China's shifting Africa investment strategy
5. Zero-tariff access for African exports
6. Africa's growing strategic energy importance

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

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From the streets of Beijing to the halls of Peking University, Geraud shares what's changed in China after a decade away — and how Chinese scholars are rethinking Africa beyond the traditional "China-Africa" lens. Geraud joins Eric & Cobus from the Chinese capital to discuss the new mood in Beijing, declining foreign presence, and what African diplomats and researchers really think about the future of ties with China.

Plus, French President Emmanuel Macron focused a lot of attention on China during his recent trip to Kenya, where he accused Beijing of becoming the continent's new "predator." And, a breakdown of the latest China-Africa trade numbers that reveal some very big problems.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

• Geraud's return to Beijing after 10 years
• The changing mood inside China on Africa
• Why fewer foreigners are living in Beijing
• Chinese scholars rethinking Africa studies
• Macron's China comments during his Kenya visit
• Africa's growing trade imbalance with China

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:

• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

The U.S. created the post-World War II international order that it no longer wants to lead today. But what replaces it is still unknown. So, in the meantime, small and medium-sized countries, so-called "middle powers," are scrambling to form new partnerships to insulate themselves from the inevitable instability that will arise from this transition.

We're seeing this play out daily now as leaders from South Africa, Brazil, Australia, Vietnam, Japan, and dozens of other countries crisscross the globe at a frenetic pace to build what many are describing as a new middle-power coalition.

But Sarang Shidore, director of the Global South program at the Quincy Institute, argued in a Foreign Policy column that it's going to be difficult, if not impossible, for a coalition like this to succeed. Sarang joins Eric to explain why divergent north-south interests will be very hard to overcome.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

• Rapid global realignment among middle powers
• Declining trust in U.S.-led institutions
• BRICS and alternative power coalitions
• China's growing Global South influence
• Transactional diplomacy and diversification
• What the next world order may look like

Show Notes:

• Foreign Policy: Can Middle Powers Gel? by Sarang Shidore
• The New York Times: American Supremacy Is Over, and Something New Is Coming by Sarang Shidore
• Politico: Trump Is Demolishing the Global Order. Here's What Might Come Next.

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander

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• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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With the U.S., Europe, Japan, and China all moving quickly to secure new supplies of African critical minerals, more attention is now shifting to the strategic supply chains that will get those resources from mine to port to market.

The U.S. and Europe have invested billions to refurbish the Lobito Corridor that stretches from the DRC and Angola all the way to the Atlantic Ocean. The Chinese have committed nearly two billion dollars to upgrade the aging TAZARA railway that links Zambia to the Indian Ocean port of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania.

Paul Nantulya, a research associate at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, joins Eric & Géraud to discuss how Japan is placing its bet on the Nacala Corridor — a much lower profile, yet potentially far more important route that links Zambia, Malawi, and Mozambique.

Topics Covered in This Episode

• Major powers competing for Africa's trade corridors
• The strategic importance of the Nacala Corridor
• China's role in African infrastructure and logistics
• Japan's approach to supply chain diversification
• Critical minerals and the race up the value chain
• The Lobito and TAZARA corridors explained

Show Notes:

• The Africa Center for Strategic Studies: Reciprocal and Resilient Mineral Supply Chains: Lessons from the Nacala Corridor by Paul Nantulya

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

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• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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Taiwan President Lai Ching-te was forced to cancel a scheduled visit to Eswatini this week after Mauritius, the Seychelles, and Madagascar revoked Lai's flight permits. Authorities in Taipei immediately accused Beijing of using economic coercion against these three countries, a narrative that was quickly picked up by the international media and conservative lawmakers in the U.S.

There is no evidence supporting the claim of coercion or the reported threat that China would impose economic sanctions or revoke debt relief against these three countries. In fact, none of the African countries involved is in any kind of debt distress to China.

Eric, Géraud, and Cobus discuss why it was likely the exercise of African agency, rather than any pressure from China, that prompted the decision to close off their airspace to Lai's plane.

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• Why Taiwan's Africa trip was suddenly canceled
• Claims of Chinese "economic coercion" examined
• The reality of African countries' debt exposure to China
• How US media and policymakers framed the story
• Why African states had little incentive to say yes
• The role of China's red lines in global diplomacy
• How narratives diverge from facts in global coverage
• What this reveals about Africa's agency in foreign policy

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque | @christiangeraud

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:

• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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China is the indispensable actor in Africa's tech ecosystem. From Huawei's telecom infrastructure to Transsion's dominant smartphone brands and Hikvision's surveillance systems, Chinese technologies are now deeply embedded across the continent, often holding leading market share in their sectors.

While the prominent role of Chinese technology has delivered significant benefits to African governments and consumers, it's also raised serious concerns among activists and policymakers around data privacy, the expansion of surveillance capabilities, and well-documented misuse by authoritarian-leaning governments.

Bulelani Jili, an assistant professor at Georgetown University and a leading scholar on China–Africa technology engagement, joins Eric and Cobus to discuss his latest research exploring the tension between how Chinese technology can drive meaningful empowerment and create potentially dangerous dependencies.

Show Notes:

• African Affairs: Pedagogies of Digital Sovereignty: The Un/Making Of Dependency Through Technical Education in Kenya by Bulelani Jili

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

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• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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The U.S. lags far behind China in the race for critical minerals, electric mobility, power generation, and new energy technologies, among others, but, in the view of many in Washington, D.C., there's still time to catch up.

Eric spent a week in the U.S. Capitol talking with key stakeholders in government, academia, and think tanks, to hear firsthand why there's widespread concern about China's lead in these areas, but no sense of panic.

Cobus and Géraud join Eric to discuss whether it may actually be too late for the United States to catch up to China in certain sectors and why African countries, in particular, are focusing less attention on ties with Washington as they look to other partners for their economic and development needs.

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque | @christiangeraud

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:

• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
• Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth