<p>Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4</p>
On Saturday 28th February, the US and Israel launched a military attack on Iran, targeting the country's missile infrastructure, military sites and leadership.
In response, Iran launched a wave of strikes across the region, including on Israel and the Gulf states.
Iran has a stockpile of ballistic missiles, which it’s firing at neighbouring countries. These countries in turn are using interceptor missiles to try and shoot them down.
But is it clear who will run out of missiles first?
Contributor:
Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Center
Credits:
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Tom Brignell Editor: Richard Vadon
Have a million new species just been discovered?
That’s the claim made by Dr Oliver Vince, co-founder of a company called Basecamp Research, who are collecting genetic data to train AI systems. The hope is that they’ll be able to use this to discover new medicines.
But is this number a good one? Rob Finn, from the European Bioinformatics Institute, explains what is being counted and how you go about counting them.
Credits: Presenter and producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O’Neill Editor: Richard Vadon
AI can make mistakes – and AI chatbots like ChatGPT warn you about that whenever you ask them anything.
These mistakes sometimes involve making up entirely fictitious, factually false statements known as “hallucinations”.
Whether these hallucinations matter depends on what you’re using AI for, and whether they are spotted and corrected.
The team on More or Less were slightly surprised to read a headline in Fortune magazine, claiming that a top academic AI conference accepted research papers which contained 100 AI-hallucinated citations.
You might think that the top AI researchers in the world would be careful about using AI to write their research papers.
Alex Cui, CTO and co-founder of GPTZero – whose company discovered the hallucinations – explains what’s going on.
CREDITS: Presenter and producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: James Beard Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon
Modern sport can seem awash with money, but it’s been claimed that the richest sportsperson of all is an ancient Roman Charioteer from the second century AD called Gaius Appuleius Diocles, with career winnings that stood at 35 million sesterces. One calculation has translated that into an astonishing $15 billion dollars today, and it’s a figure that’s stuck. But should we believe it? Duncan Weldon talks to ancient historian Professor Mary Beard from the University of Cambridge to learn more about the big business of chariot racing, and how we should think about money and wealth in the economies of the past. Presenter: Duncan Weldon Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard
Chelsea striker Liam Delap has recently stunned fans on Instagram by apparently doing incredibly complicated calculations in his head, finding what’s known as the cube root of some very large numbers.
But is he really a human calculator? Or is there something else going on? Tim Harford speaks to Rob Eastaway, mathematician and author of ‘Maths on the Back of an Envelope’ to learn about the trick you can use to pull this off - and while he’s here we also ask him about the trend of more goals being scored in the Premier League.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard Credit: Video of Liam Delap from Chelsea’s Instagram account, chelseafc
Could European Nato members use their large holdings of US shares and bonds to put pressure on America? It’s a question that some in Europe found themselves asking as the geopolitical crisis over Greenland escalated and leaders desperately tried to think of ways to dissuade Donald Trump. It is true that trillions of dollars of American financial assets are held in Europe. But the devil, as ever, is in the detail. Tim Harford talks to Toby Nangle, a journalist with the Financial Times, to drill down into the numbers.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
Is it true that someone needs to earn £71,000 before they receive more money than a family on benefits?
Did Canadian prime minister Mark Carney get the GDP of Canada and the Nordic countries wrong?
Are 1990s pop icons Right Said Fred right about what they said about church attacks?
Is a sauna really ten times as hot as Wales in the winter?
And Tim hits the science lab treadmill to find out if he can run a four-hour marathon.
If you’ve seen a number in the news you want the team on More or Less to have a look at, email [email protected]
Contributors: Gareth Morgan, benefits expert and author of the Benefits in the Future blog Joe Shalam, policy director of the Centre for Social Justice Professor Kelly Morrison, head of physics at Loughborough University Dr Danny Muniz, a senior lecturer in Exercise Physiology at the University of Hertfordshire
Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Nathan Gower, Lizzy McNeill and Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
The vast island of Greenland has found itself at the centre of a geopolitical crisis. But a little bit of geography can help us see the situation in a new light.
YouTuber and map expert Jay Foreman explains how Mercator maps - the maps that the vast majority of us use to understand the world - contain necessary but massive distortions and hugely exaggerate the size of the Arctic island.
So, why is making a flat map of a round globe so difficult? Why did we end up with a problematic map in the first place? And are there any alternatives?
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
How far away is Greenland from the United States? We check a number From Our Own Correspondent.
Does converting our entire energy system to be carbon neutral come with a £7.6 trillion price tag?
Is the inevitable rise of house prices in the UK not so inevitable after all?
Can the great mathematicians of history answer the question of the hour: how to play The Traitors?
If you’ve seen a number in the news you want the team on More or Less to have a look at, email [email protected]
Contributors: Jay Foreman, one half of YouTube duo the Map Men Mike Thompson, chief economist of the National Energy System Operator David Turver, author of The Cost of Net Zero, a report from the Institute of Economic Affairs Neal Hudson, housing market analyst and founder housing research website BuiltPlace Dr Kat Phillips, mathematician and Innovation research associate at the University of Warwick, Traitors aficionado
Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Tom Colls Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
In Autumn 2025 a paper in South Korea was published that excited many a vaccine sceptic online. The paper claimed that receiving a vaccination against Covid19 was linked to a 27% increase in cancer risk.
However, when you dig into the data there is no evidence that the vaccine caused the cancer. We spoke to Professor Justin Fendos to explain why we cannot take this type of statistical analysis at face value.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: James Beard
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: A headline in the Mail says more than 100 private schools have closed since Labour came to power and ended the VAT exemption for private schools. Is that number right?
Is it true that when Covid hit the UK, a one-week delay in imposing lockdown led to 23,000 deaths?
Do 10 million families rely on X as their main source of news? That’s what government spokesperson Baroness Ruth Anderson said in the House of Lords, but is it correct?
s there really a “quiet revival” of Christian worship? Two YouGov polls found churchgoing had gone up by 50% between 2018 and 2024 in England and Wales. New polling data suggests otherwise.
If you’ve seen a number in the news you want the team on More or Less to have a look at, email [email protected]
Contributors: Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Emeritus Professor of Statistics in the Statistical Laboratory, University of Cambridge Professor Sir John Curtice, Senior Research Fellow at the National Centre for Social Research
Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Tom Colls and Nathan Gower Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Lizzy McNeill Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon