As part of their mandate to stop 'waste, fraud and abuse' in federal government spending, DOGE, the department of Government Efficiency, made large cuts to the amount of money the US spent on foreign aid.

The task force, headed by Elon Musk, effectively dismantled the US's largest foreign aid agency, USAID - cancelling many of its programmes and absorbing the remainder into the State Department.

This has caused controversy in some circles, with researchers estimating that the cuts could result in the loss of 14 million lives by 2030. Musk strenuously denies this, stating that cuts made by DOGE has resulted in 'zero' deaths.

But who is right, and what are the problems with these sorts of estimates? We speak to Dr Hannah Ritchie to find out more.

If you see numbers that you want us to look into contact [email protected]

Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

Earlier this year, South African-born tech tycoon Elon Musk briefly became the world’s first dollar trillionaire.

This prompted loyal listener Stephen to email the More or Less team, to ask us to investigate something his daughter had been pondering: For all Musk’s vast wealth, what does it equate to as a proportion of all the wealth in the world?

How much of all the money does Elon Musk have?

We set about trying to figure this out, with the help of Robin Wigglesworth, author of A Fabulous Debt and journalist at the Financial Times.

If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, or have an interesting statistical question like Stephen, get in touch: [email protected]

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Josh McMinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

If you had a choice between instantly receiving £50,000 or a 50% chance to win £1m, which would you pick?

When YouGov asked exactly that question to people in the UK, 73% said they would take the £50,000, while 21% opted for the 50/50 chance of winning £1m.

As you may or may not have imagined, this finding provoked outrage on Twitter, with people saying the UK appeared incredibly risk averse. “This is what’s wrong with Britain,” wrote celebrity polling analyst and More or Less interviewee Nate Silver.

But is the result surprising, when you know a bit more about how people make decisions like this? BBC economics editor Faisal Islam explains why he thinks not. Image: Illustration of paper notes with a sterling pound symbol falling. Credit: Jamie Lawton/Getty Images

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Siobhan Reed Sound engineer: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon

What is the error in the calculation Donald Trump used to work out his new tariffs?

What happened when the government ordered a recount of bobbies on the beat?

When is a tax freeze not a tax freeze?

And do redheads really have a 25% higher tolerance to pain?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

The crime rate in London has been cropping up regularly on social media and in political discussions - US president Donald Trump has claimed that crime in the city is ‘through the roof’.

But what does the data tell us?

Professor Matt Ashby, from University College London’s Centre for Global City Policing, has put together statistics that allow you to start to compare crime rates between cities around the world. That evidence shows London in a different light, in terms of murder and other violent crimes.

If you see any stats you think need looking into, contact us at [email protected] Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Andrew Garratt

As the 2026 World Cup approaches its end, what is the biggest factor in who wins? Is it extraordinary moments of attacking magic? Gritty defensive organisation? Or is it all just a question of luck and random chance? We look at how mathematicians and analysists make sense of chaos, xG and unpredictability in the beautiful game. If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: [email protected] CONTRIBUTORS: Ian Graham, former Head of Research at Liverpool FC David Sumpter, Professor of Applied Mathematics at Uppsala University Luis Nunes Vicente, Mathematician at Lehigh University CREDITS: Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Josh McMinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O'Neill Editor: Richard Vadon

Recently a post did the rounds on Twitter, claiming that people who play tennis live on average 9.7 years longer than people who play other sports.

The figure comes from a recent analysis of people's exercise habits in Denmark.

But not everyone on Twitter was convinced. Tennis is a sport that in many countries is expensive to play and so attracts wealthier players. Couldn't it be the players' socio-economic status driving the trend?

We speak to medical statistician Adam Jacobs, to understand what the study in question can, and cannot, say for certain.

If you see any stats that look too good to be true and want us to check them out, email [email protected].

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Siobhan Reed Sound Mix: James Beard.

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:32) A government minister has informed the nation that average teacher pay in England is around £54,000. Radio 4 listeners are howling at the radio in disbelief. Surely someone from the IFS would be able to explain all this? We interview someone from the IFS to explain all this.

(06:32) A headline in the Independent suggests that Russian soldiers survive an average of 20 minutes when they get to the front line, citing a historian, citing Russian bloggers. Is the number a good one? We take a peek into the murky information ecosystem that surrounds the war in Ukraine.

(15:00) A loyal listener has resent a burning question that - mortifyingly - he first asked us nearly three years ago: why is air travel cheaper than rail travel? We push our guilt deep, deep down then make it worse by challenging the premise of the question.

(21:18) Is every shuffle of a deck of cards an unprecedented event in the history of the universe? It’s a bold claim, but maths YouTuber and comedian Matt Parker has done his homework. We invite him into the studio to make his case - and show off his shuffling skills.

More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on [email protected].

Guests: Luke Sibieta - Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies Andrey Vladov - BBC Monitoring Mark Galeotti - author of Forged in War - A Military History of Russia from its Beginnings to Today Simon Calder - Travel Correspondent at the Daily Telegraph Matt Parker - Mathematician, comedian and YouTuber (Stand-up Maths)

Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Josh McMinn Producers: Nathan Gower, Lizzy McNeill Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Siobhan Reed Sound Engineer: James Beard

The Moon is one of the most captivating features of our night's sky, and apparently, one of the most suspicious.... For thousands of years, people have blamed the full moon for strange behavior. From ancient myths and the origins of the word lunacy to modern police folklore, the idea that a bright moon can influence human actions is one that many believe. But what does the data tell us? We spoke to Professor Eric Chudler, who has looked at crime rates and lunar cycles to discover whether the moon truly is the ultimate crime puppeteer. If you spot any suspicious numbers in the news or life and want us to investigate, please email in to: [email protected].

Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Mix: James Beard Production coordinator: Siobhan Reed

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:23) Andy Burnham may not be Prime Minister yet, but he’s setting out his economic agenda, and its based on his old stomping ground, Greater Manchester. We ask whether the official figures that seem to show an economic miracle can be fully believed, and how much credit he deserves.

(10:09) As our towns and cities get hotter, would turning to air conditioning really drive outside temperatures up by 10 to 12 degrees celcius? We learn about the fascinating world of ‘urban heat islands’.

(15:40) We turn to homophones in an attempt to continue a running joke. This week, we follow six items about Wales with an item about whales - are our cetacean friends the carbon sinks of our dreams? Will we ever write a stranger paragraph?

(22:10) Cult director and maths fanboy Werner Herzog has been waxing lyrical about the intruiging mysteries of prime numbers. Tim cracks out a surprisingly decent impression and we learn about one of the most inscrutable problems in mathematics - what’s not to like?

More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on [email protected].

Guests: Paul Swinney - Chief Economist at The Data City Liam Sides - Associate Director at Oxford Economics Dimple Rana - Heat Resilience Leader at Arup Sue Grimmond - Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading Dr Olaf Meynecke - Marine Ecologist, Griffith University James Grime - Mathematician and star of YouTube channel Numberphile

Special Guest Appearance: The Voice of Werner Herzog

Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:42) Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sir Jeremy Hunt argues that you can earn far more on out of work benefits than you can on the minimum wage. We argue his figures are deceptive - and we’ve done the homework to prove it.

(09:09) As the heatwave rises to a crescendo, people are saying that wet bulb temperatures could hit critical levels. Utterly mystified? So was our editor, so we made this item to explain all to him (and you).

(14:34) In a tournament with so many teams, we’ve had to consult a university professor to understand the mysterious mathematical workings of the World Cup Draw. It’s even more complicated and confusing than VAR! (OK, it’s not that bad.)

(19:00) Welsh comedian Elis James has a superpower - finding mutual connections with his fellow countrymen and women. So let’s add to the fun by providing a statistical framework upon which to understand his achievements. That’s how comedy works, right?

More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in the news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on [email protected].

Guests: Eduin Latimer - Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies Dr Chloe Brimicombe - climate scientist and postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oxford Dr Kat Phillips - innovation research associate at the University of Warwick and a digital maths communicator under the name ‘KatDoesMaths’ Oliver Johnson - Professor of Information Theory, the University of Bristol

Returning Special Guest appearance:

Elis James: comedian and well-connected Welshman

Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard