• 49 minutes 38 seconds
    Inflation Risk is the Wrong Recession Lesson

    This might be the most dangerous economic assertion circulating today: the high inflation from 2021-2023 was caused by government stimulus. The talking point on the right goes: the third COVID-era stimulus checks landed in March 2021, prices took off, case closed. Of course reality is more nuanced. And most serious estimates pin only a point or two of the inflation peak on the bill; the rest was supply chain chaos, a global chip shortage, and the Ukraine war. The pandemic caused the worst job loss on record — and the response produced the fastest labor-market recovery we've ever had, because policymakers went big. The danger is that they remember the inflation and forget the recovery.

    Chapters:

    00:01:14 Announcements

    00:03:24  Retcon: Q1 GDP Revised 

    00:04:50 Terms & Conditions: Output Gap, NAIRU, "The Long Depression"

    00:11:49  Big Pilcrow: Is Recession Recovery Getting Blamed for Inflation?

    00:42:14  Executive Orders: Parallel parking licenses, FIFA ticketing ban

    00:45:52  Spiritual Sponsors: Small hardware stores, handwritten letter to OE

    16 June 2026, 8:30 am
  • 48 minutes 9 seconds
    Make the Economy Work for Freelancers, Too (#askingforafriend)

    Thirty million Americans, more or less, work for themselves. They freelance, do gig work, have solo LLCs, or — as a certain economist says — participate in “ non-employee employment.” The economics of their situation is harder than it needs to be. Making self-employment more viable is good for everyone in the labor market, because when workers have options, they also have more power. Plus: Kathryn Anne Edwards testified before the House Ways and Means Committee, and a congressman implied she wasn't a real American. She has thoughts.

    Chapters:

    0:00 — Start/Announcements

    1:21 — Retcon: Bad banks, good overtime, and testifying before Congress (again)

    18:17 — Big Pilcrow: Freelancers & non-employer businesses

    44:42 — Executive orders: national anthem singing rules, Congressional attendance policy

    47:20 — Spiritual sponsors: Supportive listeners and horchada + cold brew coffee

    49:01 — Credits

    9 June 2026, 8:30 am
  • 58 minutes 49 seconds
    About That College Grad Who Can’t Find a Job…

    (Originally aired 7/1/2025) Newly minted college graduates are having a harder time landing that first job than in recent years. Is it AI? Is college useless? Is it a crisis? (No. No. And not yet…) College graduates under 27 still have significantly lower unemployment rates (5.8%) than high school graduates of the same age (6.9%). What economist Kathryn Edwards finds worrying is that these new workers, who are typically a lagging economic indicator, may in this case be a bellwether of a weakening economy. 

    Support the Optimist Economy podcast by becoming a paid subscriber on Substack, or donating at https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy

    Complete show notes with links to articles and data at optimisteconomy.com.

    You can also find Optimist Economy on:

    --------

    Read More:

    2 June 2026, 8:30 am
  • 42 minutes 35 seconds
    Should We Cherish the Ultra-Wealthy? (a.k.a. ‘The Cornfield’)

    A certain kind of wealthy American has been griping out loud lately — about taxes, about progressive cities, about how unappreciated they are for the jobs they create, the stuff they buy, and the tips they hand out. A narrative is coalescing around them too: that the top 10% of earners now do so much of the spending, the U.S. economy relies on them. But an economy that depends so much on the people at the top isn't the healthy one the country deserves — it’s just wearing a nice suit.

    Chapters:

    00:00:56 Announcements: Q&A episode questions wanted
    00:01:18 Retcon: The 86 debate; FDR's full "calamity howling executives" quote 00:05:32 Terms & Conditions: Wealth Effect and Zugzwang
    00:09:26 Big Pilcrow: Should we cherish the ultra-wealthy?
    00:36:41 Executive Orders: Retire "mummies"; union credits on red carpets 00:39:34 Spiritual Sponsors: Mellow Cello podcast; enormous floral arrangements

    Further Reading

    Moody's claim that the top 10% of earners now drive nearly half of consumer spending in the WSJ:
    https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/us-economy-strength-rich-spending-2c34a571

    The Minneapolis Fed on what the underlying data actually shows. https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026/have-us-consumers-gone-k-shaped-a-review-of-the-data

    Wealthy part-time New Yorkers reacting to a proposed pied-à-terre tax in the Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/3283eaab-e9cf-41e6-a028-5a02fb6f4615

    The Wall Street Journal on second-home taxes spreading from New York City to other states, including the San Diego homeowner who'd like to be cherished. https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/taxes-on-second-homes-are-springing-up-across-america-93a64448

    Full reading list at https://optimisteconomy.substack.com

    Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to [email protected]

    26 May 2026, 8:30 am
  • 48 minutes 53 seconds
    No Overtime for the Supervisor of Sandwiches

    It wasn’t just hourly factory jobs that were supposed to come with a 40-hour workweek. Even salaried jobs were supposed to get overtime pay, though very few do do anymore. Overtime protections are the only legal mechanism enforcing work-hour limits, and for 50 years, the salary threshold that determines who qualifies to receive overtime has been left to erode. Employers found another workaround too: just call the sandwich maker a "sandwich manager." Now, the new no-tax-on-overtime deduction isn't protecting workers — it's rewarding the kind of overwork it was overtime was originally designed to punish. Fixing the law governing overtime would be a huge and instant boost not just to the U.S. economy, but to our work-life balance.


    Chapters:
    00:01:43 Announcements
    00:02:32 Retcon: Economic data reliability
    00:05:54 Terms & Conditions: Tenterhooks; Perquisite 
    00:08:23 Big Pilcrow: Overtime 
    00:45:27 Executive Orders: Badge of shame for working past 40 hours; more colorful cars
    00:46:52 Spiritual Sponsors: Awesome first bosses; Faraday e-bike

    Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to [email protected]

    19 May 2026, 8:30 am
  • 44 minutes 19 seconds
    Can the U.S. Go ‘Cashless?’

    Cash is dirty, inconvenient, and so last century. Some 70% of Americans under age 50 think its days are numbered. But we still need those greenbacks, if as an alternative to banks. More than 4% of households are “unbanked,” and three times as many are “underbanked,” meaning bank services mostly don’t work for them, so rely on services like check cashers or payday lenders. And that's before you get to the racial disparities in who banks approve for credit. Reviving banking services at the post office might be one way to help the unbanked and keep from handing yet more power to the finance sector. 


    Chapters:

    00:00:48 Announcements

    00:02:30  Retcon: Semiquincentennia 

    00:03:35 Terms & Conditions: ChexSystems, Unbanked

    00:05:46  Big Pilcrow: What’s keeping the U.S. from going cashless?

    00:38:28  Executive Orders: Regulate youth sports schedules; Airline baggage fees by weight.

    00:40:56  Spiritual Sponsors: Artemis splashdown; Friends with season tickets.

    Have a questions for our next Q&A? Send it to [email protected]

    12 May 2026, 8:30 am
  • 58 minutes 12 seconds
    The 2026 Economy: Make it Make Sense

    Consumer sentiment is in the basement. Jobs aren't being added. Prices keep climbing. GDP barely grew at the end of 2025, and a ‘meh’ 2% last quarter. Shouldn’t this be a recession? Not so far. Economist Kathryn Anne Edwards walks through the clear cause of each bad number: Tariffs explain the prices and foul mood. Mass deportations explain the jobs. The government shutdown explained last quarter. Still, knowing the passing reasons for economic pain doesn't make it hurt less. And none of it changes the long-term economic reforms we still need.

    Chapters: 

    00:01:06 Announcements

    00:01:57 Retcon: Wealth at retirement

    00:03:52 Terms & Conditions: Recession, Slack, Tight, Loose, Goodflation/Badflation

    00:09:10 Centerpiece: What is going on with the U.S. Economy right now? The vibe is don’t panic. But don’t not panic. 

    00:53:38 Executive Orders: Free work parking. Legislators do their own taxes.

    00:55:00 Spiritual Sponsors: Genre-specific bookstores and great newstands


    Send us your economic questions and concerns at [email protected]

    5 May 2026, 8:30 am
  • 49 minutes 53 seconds
    Progress is a Long Game

    (Originally aired 5/06/25) What sparks progress? The right political conditions? Social pressure? Economic upheaval? In response to two listeners’ questions, we say… both none of those and all of the above. As an example, we talk through just one bit of the New Deal in the 1930s, which was the law to limit child labor. That movement started decades earlier, and continued decades afterward. For those keeping score at home, this a sneaky third installment of Kathryn’s 68-part series on the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938. 

    Chapters: 

    00:01:08 Announcements

    00:01:43 Retcon

    00:03:58 Terms & Conditions

    00:07:03 Centerpiece

    00:42:56 Executive Orders

    00:46:25 Spiritual Sponsors


    28 April 2026, 8:30 am
  • 46 minutes 54 seconds
    The Great Wage Stagnation

    Average U.S. wages have barely budged since the early '80s — and if you account for today's labor force being older and more college-educated, wage growth basically disappears. Economists have cycled through explanations: workers lacked technical skills, then couldn't compete with global labor, then lost the policies that once lifted paychecks, like strong unions and a meaningful minimum wage. The latest chapter is monopsony — the idea that as employers consolidate, people have fewer choices of where to work, and fewer places to land if they lose a job. Fix the market, and the paychecks follow.

    Chapters:

    00:00:45 Announcements

    00:01:01  Retcon: Double Taxation and Make Billionaires Pay Their Fair Share Act

    00:03:10 Terms & Conditions: Monopsony, Septel

    00:07:07  Big Pilcrow: Why Aren’t Wages Growing?

    00:40:37  Executive Orders: Reverse Billing, Leaked Chat Table Readings

    00:42:49  Spiritual Sponsors: Dole Whip, Sad Songs, Being Recognized in the Wild

    21 April 2026, 8:30 am
  • 45 minutes 36 seconds
    Tax Reform Gone Wild

    From California to Washington to New York, states are trying to tax the very rich. The press keeps rehashing whether millionaires and billionaires will flee those states. Wrong question. The more important one is why we’re improvising tax policy state to state when it’s the federal government that should be dealing with health care, child care and affordability—all of which are national problems. Meanwhile, some Senate Democrats are proposing to take even more people out of the tax system entirely. None of these specific proposals make income taxes simpler or fairer, but they do suggest there’s an appetite for reform. 

    ---

    Chapters:

    00:01:18 Announcements

    00:02:33 Retcon: Occupational Licenses

    00:06:16 Terms & Conditions: Progressive

    00:07:59  Big Pilcrow: Everyone Wants to Tax Millionaires

    00:38:23  Executive Orders: Unreadable Menus and Tax Complainer Merch

    00:41:42  Spiritual Sponsors: Dream Robin & the Nobel Laureate’s WNBA Contract

    Got economics questions, anxieties, or executive orders? Send them to [email protected]

    14 April 2026, 8:30 am
  • 45 minutes 49 seconds
    Nobody's Pulling Up Stakes Anymore

    Americans used to move a lot in search of opportunity. But in 2024, the share of Americans who moved at all hit a 76-year low. Barely 2% of us moved across state lines. Some of that is by choice: people are more rooted, and that's not nothing. But when workers stop moving, rich cities pull further away from poor ones, wages stagnate, and the gaps between thriving labor markets and struggling ones get harder to close. And when there’s a shock to a local labor market, moving is an important release valve. Fixing a fraction of this worker mobility breakdown could improve the labor market for everyone.

    Chapters:

    00:00:33  Opening

    00:01:45  Retcon: Trump Accounts & Career Pivots

    00:07:27  Terms & Conditions: Spatial Equilibrium

    00:09:55  Big Pilcrow: Does it Matter to the U.S. Economy if We Don’t Move from Place to Place?

    00:39:10  Executive Orders: Frances Perkins miniseries; Sleep Shaming; Election Day Weekend

    00:43:07  Spiritual Sponsors: The National Consumers League motto ("Investigate, Agitate, Legislate"); ACFC’s winning start

    READ MORE:

    The increasingly mobile US is a myth that needs to move on | Aeon Essays

    Who Moves? Who Stays Put? Where’s Home? | Pew Research Center

    Job Changing and the Decline in Long-Distance Migration in the United States | Demography | Duke University Press

    The Economics of Internal Migration: Advances and Policy Questions

    Population & Migration | Economic Research Service

    Stranded! How Rising Inequality Suppressed US Migration and Hurt Those Left Behind


    7 April 2026, 8:30 am
  • More Episodes? Get the App