Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov talk through the latest polls, numbers, and close races 12 days before Election Day. Trump’s approval rating has hit a new low — just 36% among likely voters in the latest NYT/Siena poll. And in South Carolina, a new poll has Republican incumbent Darline Graham with only a 3-point lead over Democratic challenger Dr. Annie Andrews — a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1998. Trump was on the campaign trail there yesterday. Is this panic — or smart politics?

Scott and Jess also dig into the controversy over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign ad featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother, and what it means for the Ohio governor’s race. JD Vance also weighed in, saying he is “disgusted” by Republicans who pushed back on the ad. 

The first Russian diesel tanker under Trump’s deal is said to be leaving for the U.S. on Thursday, after Russia freed a 74-year-old American that had been held imprisoned for four years. And Reuters reports that peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. could resume soon. But the Wall Street Journal is now reporting that it was Elon Musk himself who ordered the Starlink slowdown that has significantly hindered Ukraine’s ability to defend itself — despite his earlier public claim that any limits were set by the U.S. military or the president. 

Wednesday’s Michigan Senate debate between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers got heated. El-Sayed hammered Rogers over his ties to Trump and the Iran war, while Rogers attempted to smear El-Sayed by alleging he had connections to the Muslim Brotherhood — accusations El-Sayed has repeatedly denied. How will this race turn out?

And finally: new polling shows double-digit drops in favorability for “manosphere” figures like Joe Rogan, Elon Musk, and Tucker Carlson among men aged 18 to 30 — the very group who helped deliver to Trump in 2024. Trump, Vance, and the GOP are all now viewed unfavorably by this crucial demographic. What’s behind the shift — and was the manosphere’s influence always overrated? Scott shares some data, and some thoughts.

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Jessica Tarlov and Aaron Parnas open with Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, who is facing backlash after praising Vladimir Putin during talks in Moscow, even as Russian forces continue to bombard Ukrainian cities and kill civilians. Russia also released a 74-year-old American citizen from a Russian prison after seven years. Is that a sign of good faith or a negotiating chip?

Mike Bloomberg is pouring $80 million into the midterms, including at least $50 million for House races, as Democrats look to expand their majority. A new New York Times/Siena poll shows Democrats leading the national House vote by 11 points and leading Republicans on every major issue, including immigration. Republicans still hold a significant fundraising advantage, with the RNC moving more than $50 million to its campaign committees.

A Wedgewood poll that helped push Mallory McMorrow out of the Michigan Senate primary has been exposed as fraudulent, after major aggregators had already included it. Is it time to regulate the polling industry?

Things have gotten ugly in the Ohio governor’s race. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy is running an ad featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother. For years, well before she ran for office, Acton has said her mother was part of an unstable home where she experienced homelessness and sexual abuse. Ramaswamy has now admitted the ad came from his campaign. The Columbus Dispatch endorsed Acton as a direct result, and Ramaswamy was heckled at a campaign event last night. Has he gone too far, and is there still a limit to how low races are willing to go?

In New Hampshire, former Senator John Sununu is running ads distancing himself from Trump as he tries to win back the seat he lost in 2008. His opponent is Democratic Representative Chris Pappas. Is this a smart strategy for a New Hampshire Republican, and does Sununu’s history of criticizing Trump make it land as genuine?

In New York’s 17th Congressional District, Democratic challenger Cait Conley is trying to unseat Republican incumbent Mike Lawler in one of the most competitive House races in the country. Lawler is tying Conley to the Democratic left flank, while Conley makes the case that Lawler is too close to Trump. How does this play out?

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Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov open the final two weeks before Election Day with the latest on some of the midterms’ most closely-watched races. They talk about some of the latest numbers — including the stat that Kalshi gives Democrats a 64% chance of retaking the Senate.

Trump was in Kansas last night rallying for Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall, who is facing an unexpectedly close race against Democrat challenger Rev. Adam Hamilton. Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years. How strong is the Democratic momentum — and what does competitive Kansas tell us about the whole map?

Violent protests continue to shake France, where a curfew was in effect last night in parts of Paris and other cities. What began as students mobilizing against teacher shortages and run-down classrooms has expanded into a broader movement against the rising cost of living. Around 550,000 people joined protests over the weekend and police arrested approximately 2,400 people. How bad is the situation — and could this kind of unrest spread to other European nations?

Elon Musk says he will give a SpaceX share to every American child next year — a giveaway that would be worth approximately $10.7 billion at current share prices. But Musk is also spending heavily on Republicans right now: FEC filings show he gave $158 million last month to the Senate Leadership Fund, which directed that money to a PAC largely dedicated to ads backing Ken Paxton, the Republican running for Senate in Texas. Paxton’s opponent James Talarico is making Musk’s spending a central campaign issue. Is the SpaceX giveaway a genuine gesture — or will this promise be empty, like so many of Musk’s past pledges?

And finally: A Democratic candidate for a seat on a local county council in Indiana has gone viral. Jaime West blew up last week, after video spread of her giving a rambling rant during a televised forum. Speaking with Piers Morgan last night, she explained herself — saying she was nervous being in a room full of Republicans… and insisted that, while she might have had a drink or two (or three), she knows what she’s talking about.

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Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov open the final two weeks before Election Day — with early voting starting today in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, South Carolina, and Texas. Democrats are up 8 points on the congressional ballot in a new Ipsos poll, Trump’s disapproval rating sits at 66%, and a new Wall Street Journal poll finds Democratic voters aren’t sold on a leftward shift. Kalshi gives Sherrod Brown a 66% chance of winning back his Senate seat in Ohio, and Abdul El-Sayed has got a 68% chance of winning in Michigan.

Trump has waived new sanctions and tariffs on Russia required under a law he previously signed — two days before they were set to take effect, claiming he needs to keep Moscow at the negotiating table. Putin has proposed a three-way meeting with Trump and Xi Jinping next month to discuss Ukraine on terms favorable to Moscow. Meanwhile Trump is blaming Ukrainian President Zelenskyy for high diesel prices after Ukraine struck a Russian oil export terminal in St. Petersburg as part of its biggest drone campaign of the year. Jess breaks down whether any of Trump’s justifications hold up — and whether the Ukraine situation is being used to distract from the unresolved Iran conflict. Trump also just endorsed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for re-election. Is there anything surprising about that? 

Scott and Jess also talk about Vice President JD Vance’s comments about the Iran war during a Michigan town hall, and what this might signal for Republicans trying to manage public sentiment heading into the midterms.

Plus, Jess and Scott take listener questions.

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Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov open with a striking headline just 19 days before the midterms: House Republicans are privately bracing for the possibility of losing the chamber. Polls are showing competitive races in Kentucky, North Carolina, and Nevada — in some districts Trump carried by 10 points or more in 2024. Trump is out giving rallies in Texas, Ohio, and Alaska — states Republicans wouldn’t normally have to fight for. 

Ukraine has defied Trump’s energy ceasefire. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that his military will resume striking Russian oil refineries — a direct rebuke of Trump’s deal with Putin. A Zelenskyy advisor says Elon Musk’s SpaceX recently imposed restrictions on Ukraine’s drone-mounted Starlink terminals, diminishing their air defenses. Musk responded by avoiding accountability — saying that any limits are set by the military or the president. Scott and Jess ask the bigger question: what is the actual plan for Ukraine right now?

Kamala Harris is hitting the campaign trail hard, heading to Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and more in a rapid-fire midterm push. Those states also happen to be key 2028 battlegrounds. Will she be running for president again in 2028? One Democratic strategist said this week that Kamala “totally blew it” by not going on the campaign trail sooner, and reports say that her husband Doug Emhoff has privately told people he’d prefer she not run. How much of a shadow 2028 race is already underway?

Social Security recipients are getting a raise — in 2027, payments will receive their largest cost-of-living boost in four years. Scott and Jessica talk about this in contrast to wage growth and inflation, and brainstorm ways to keep Social Security relevant and funded. Will this have a meaningful impact on the economy and the debt, or is it a routine adjustment?

Pope Leo XIV has been diagnosed with lung cancer at age 71, following surgery to remove a lesion that the Vatican described as successful. The public disclosure marks a dramatic shift in how the Vatican handles papal health — Scott and Jess weigh in on what that transparency signals, and about the moral clarity and technological vision put forth by the first American pope.

Get your Pivot Tour Tickets: pivottour.com 

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Jessica Tarlov and Aaron Parnas are back for Raging Perspective with 20 days until the midterms.

The September inflation report is out — and it’s bad news. Consumer prices rose 0.6% for the month, the biggest increase in five months, bringing annual inflation to 3.7%. With tariffs and rising AI investment costs also contributing to price pressures, the Fed could be on track for another rate hike in December. Trump was in Alaska last night. Can Republicans spin this?Three debates happened this week — in Maine, Georgia, and Iowa — with Republicans distancing themselves from Trump while going on offense against their Democratic opponents. Aaron and Jess talk through some of the closest races.

In Texas, where half a billion dollars has now been spent on the Paxton-Talarico Senate race, the hits keep coming for Ken Paxton. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Paxton celebrated New Year’s Eve 2024 in Dubai with his girlfriend and two Americans who had been indicted on federal healthcare fraud charges and hadn’t returned to the U.S. Is partying with fugitives enough to move Texas voters?

Ukraine is facing a dangerous double blow. Russia is intensifying attacks on its energy infrastructure — and simultaneously, Ukrainian forces are losing partial access to Starlink, Elon Musk’s satellite internet network that has become critical to Ukraine’s battlefield communications and drone operations. The disruption comes amid escalating tensions between Trump and Kyiv, raising questions about whether Trump is using Musk’s technology as leverage. Hegseth was also called a war criminal this week. 

Kimberly Guilfoyle has resigned as Ambassador to Greece amid allegations, and Katie Zacharia has begun her tenure as White House press secretary. Aaron weighs in on the Guilfoyle allegations and brings up her “burn book.”

Plus, questions from the audience. 

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Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov start with a check in on the election map, just a few weeks out from the midterms. Can Democrats trust the polling leads they currently see in the Senate races in Maine, Michigan, and Texas?

Trump is doubling down on his decision to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian diesel, despite pushback from Republicans and European allies. The plan has Russia supplying around 300,000 tons of diesel immediately, with increasingly larger amounts to follow — but the total proposed over six months would cover just about 9 days of U.S. diesel consumption. Is this really about lowering prices — or is something else going on?

Ukrainian drone strikes hit multiple data centers belonging to Russian internet giant Yandex, knocking them offline. This led some to suggest Russian social media bot activity had been disrupted — but the traffic that dropped was largely automated search crawlers, not Kremlin-linked disinformation. Troll farms, social media accounts, and paid influencers are still fully operational. Scott and Jess ask: how dangerous is it when misinformation about misinformation makes Americans less prepared to combat foreign interference ahead of an election?

New press secretary Katie Zacharia held her first White House press briefing today — and used part of it to break the news that Kimberly Guilfoyle — Don Jr.’s former fiancee and America’s ambassador to Greece — would be resigning amidst a slew of allegations, including that she brought lobbyists to government meetings, and had a political benefactor pay her credit card bill.

Trump is now privately having second thoughts about Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s announced plan to livestream the execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan. Hegseth proposed broadcasting the firing-squad execution publicly as a deterrent, but bipartisan backlash has mounted. Will Trump go through with it?

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has filed paperwork with the FEC to run for re-election in 2028. He is currently 93 years old — which means he would be 97 on election day, and is currently third in line for the presidency. Scott weighs in.

And finally: What is happening to falling in love in America?

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Jessica Tarlov is joined by The Bulwark’s Sarah Longwell, host of the Focus Group podcast, and NYT bestselling author of How to Eat an Elephant: One Voter at a Time — for a wide-ranging conversation 22 days before the midterms.

They open with Ukraine and Russia, where Trump is claiming there is now an “energy ceasefire” — even as senators from both parties call on him to reverse plans to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian diesel. Sarah breaks down the current state of the Ukraine war, whether Trump really thought a Putin energy deal would go over well domestically, and what Trump’s weekend comments that Ukraine needs a new president mean for the relationship with Kyiv and America’s allies.

Sarah also talks about how all of this information means an opportunity for Democrats, and whether they can capitalize on it in the midterms. 

Elon Musk is running a misinformation operation at home. Election officials in Colorado and Washington have warned about misleading texts from Musk’s America PAC asking voters to confirm “ballot requests” they never made. The PAC also runs VoteSafe.org, a registration site that collects and may share users’ personal information. And Musk amplified a false claim — pushed by conservative commentators including Spencer Pratt and GOP strategist Caroline Wren — that Texas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico had been at an Ohio mental health facility rather than recovering from the flu at home. Both Talarico’s campaign and the facility denied the claim. 

Federal agents raided the Washington residence of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) Monday as the Trump administration investigates her immigration paperwork — 22 days before the midterms, raising immediate questions about DOJ policy against election-period interference. No findings of wrongdoing have been announced, and Rep.  Omar denounced the raid as the “weaponization of federal law enforcement to target political enemies.”

There is ongoing controversy over whether the execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan will be livestreamed — which would make it the first military execution since 1961. Trump has said he hasn’t made a final decision after the Pentagon and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced their intentions, and Vice President Vance is now distancing himself from Hegseth’s position. 

The White House has a new press secretary: conservative lawyer and commentator Katie Zacharia, who takes over from Karoline Leavitt. The Bulwark reported that Zacharia deleted past social media posts ahead of her appointment, including one that called for the suspension of habeas corpus. Sarah assesses the pick — and the stakes of the press secretary role — as Trump heads into lame duck territory.

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Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov open Thursday with the Michigan Senate race, where Republican nominee Mike Rogers has released a new ad declaring that Canada is "not our enemy" and calling for an end to the tariffs — a sharp reversal from his position just weeks ago when he called those same tariffs "necessary." Rogers is now trailing Abdul El-Sayed in a race that could decide overall Senate control. Is this enough to convince Michigan voters — or is the flip too late and too transparent?

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made a trip to San Diego this week to welcome home the USS Abraham Lincoln, working out with Marines in a clip that went viral. The visit comes after Hegseth dismissed reports of food shortages and crew fatigue during the Iran war deployment as "completely misrepresented." Could this election’s October surprise be military action in Iran? 

Iowa Democratic candidate Rob Sand heads into the final stretch of the governor's race with a double-digit lead: a new poll has him at 55% to Republican Zach Lahn's 43%, with Kalshi giving Sand an 89% chance of winning. The two met in a debate this week and things quickly got heated — with Sand accusing his opponent of not really living in Iowa. Scott and Jess break down how the Sand campaign is running — and what a Democratic flip in Iowa would mean for the national map.

Fox News just turned 30 years old — and its ratings dominance has never been stronger, with the network averaging 1.69 million total-day viewers in 2025, compared with 551,000 for MSNOW and 432,000 for CNN. Fox News now captures over 50% of the total cable news audience. Should more Democrats follow Jess's lead and engage with the network?

And finally: a wave of movies about tech CEO is hitting theaters: Aaron Sorkin’s The Social Reckoning drops Friday — about Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, a Sam Altman biopic starring Andrew Garfield just premiered, Alex Gibney’s Elon Musk documentary premiered at Venice, and A24’s much-anticipated Elizabeth Holmes film called You Can See Everything is on the way. Is Hollywood just out of original ideas — or is the timing of all these releases saying something about where the culture is right now?

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Jessica Tarlov and Aaron Parnas are back for Raging Perspective with three weeks until the midterms.

Trump is teasing a "midterm surprise" that he says could make history — hinting that OMB Director and Project 2025 architect Russell Vought is behind a major announcement coming in the next few weeks. This comes as 42% of Trump's 2024 Latino voters now say they're disappointed or regret their vote. Aaron breaks down what the surprise might be, voter dynamics heading into the final stretch, and his concerns about the possibilities of AI-generated content impacting the election.

France is in its third week of escalating student protests over the state of public schools. Yesterday's demonstrations were among the most violent yet — the Prime Minister has suspended high school classes for the rest of the week, and police have fired tear gas and water cannons at students blockading schools. Any takeaways for American politics?

The first of four Maine Senate debates in just ten days took place last night. Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson went head to head on immigration, tariffs, and rising fuel costs. Aaron scores the debate and previews what he thinks might happen in November.

Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed is now distancing himself from Hasan Piker after campaigning with the controversial streamer throughout the primary — reportedly calling Piker directly and warning that his rhetoric was costing votes, asking him to tone it down. Smart move or too late?

New leaked audio from a Ken Paxton fundraiser has the Republican Senate nominee blaming the Iran war and rising gas prices for his campaign's struggles in Texas — telling donors that affordability is "by far our biggest problem" and admitting "I don't make the decisions." Is Paxton already playing the blame game?

And finally: Christian YouTuber Gabe Poirot went viral on Fox News for describing his 18 days in heaven during a coma after a 2021 skateboard crash, including his experience meeting Jesus. Aaron and Jess react. Plus, questions from the audience.

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Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov open Tuesday with Trump's Nebraska rally — where the president made shocking comments about the Iran war that immediately drew national attention and outrage. Trump also mentioned one of his favorite topics — our own Jessica Tarlov. At the same event, Trump unveiled a new executive order aimed at lowering diesel prices. Will this be enough to sway farmers and other Republicans hit hard by soaring diesel prices — or does it fall short of what the inflation-frustrated base actually needs?

Trump's MAGA Inc. Super PAC has now agreed to pay for the repurposed Trump campaign ads that have been airing nationwide, which had been marked as paid for with taxpayer money — more than $10 million worth of ads on cable and network TV since September. Is this a rare admission of defeat, or damage control?

The main Democratic Senate Super PAC has been ramping up Epstein-related attack ads, with AdImpact counting 69 Epstein ads this cycle worth more than $36.6 million. New polling shows 44% of voters see Epstein as a serious campaign issue. Scott and Jess debate whether this is a smart closing-month strategy or a risky one for Democrats.

The Cornell Seven case is now sparking protests on campus. Thousands of students and faculty rallied at Cornell last night in response to the lawsuit over the school's handling of a 2024 sexual assault allegation. Attendees marched to university president Michael Kotlikoff's office, demanding his resignation and a ban on fraternities. Is this fundamentally a university management issue, a criminal justice issue — or both?

And finally: a measles outbreak is spreading across the Northeast. Pennsylvania has surpassed one thousand cases this year, and New York has declared a state of emergency, expanding vaccine access as health officials scramble to contain the spread. How serious is this — and what does it say about the public health infrastructure under RFK?

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