Donald Trump’s handling of the Natalie Harp mess has backfired big time. The Atlantic reports that Trump’s own anger is why Trumpworld exploded so vehemently after Senator Jon Ossoff highighted their closeness. As the media focused on Harp, Trump grew “furious,” which led aides to “take their cues” from him, leading to more lashing out, but this “backfired spectacularly,” prompting more attention—and more leaks. The New York Times reported that some advisers think her sway is “poisonous,” and even that she's provided him with the ugliest social media content that he posts, such as the image of the Obamas as apes. We talked to Democratic operative Greg Greene, who held this job under Obama and wrote about it for The New Republic. We discuss the deeper problems with this arrangement, why the latest disclosures are so unnerving, and what it all says about the Cult of Trump—and about Trumpworld’s profound contempt for our constitutional order. 

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Donald Trump just issued a crazed, rambling tirade, vowing to hit Iran with the “MOST CRUSHING ECONOMIC OPERATION EVER TAKEN” while threatening “TREMENDOUS” economic consequences to any country that helps Iran. News organizations are struggling to divine what he means and what it’s supposed to accomplish. Regardless, it shows just how stuck Trump is in this quagmire. Meanwhile, Marjorie Taylor Greene offered her own extended prediction that the GOP is facing a brutal midterm because Trump’s broken promises on Iran have effectively shattered the MAGA coalition. Greene’s statement is a remarkable moment, so we talked to New Republic contributing editor Virginia Heffernan, who’s been writing well about MAGA’s crackup. We discuss the deeper meaning of Greene’s stand, the hidden fissures splintering MAGA, why this threatens the GOP’s midterm hopes, and why even a crushing Democratic victory won’t get us out of the woods just yet. 

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Donald Trump’s approval rating just hit an abysmal low of 33-64 in Reuters polling. That’s only one survey, but Trump also just hit a new low of 37-59 in New York Times polling averages, which suggests he’s likely in the mid-30s and may be trending toward the Reuters number. This comes as Democrats appear to have flipped a state legislative district in western Pennsylvania that Trump won in 2024 by 18 points. Though that race hasn’t been called yet, either way it’s an 18-point shift, a very good omen. Meanwhile, a CNN analysis finds Trump badly bleeding Hispanic men, a demographic he carried in 2024, another sign his coalition is imploding. We talked about all of it with Michael Cohen, author of a new piece on GOP extremism for his Substack, Truth and Consequences. We discuss what the Pennsylvania swing portends, why a Democratic Senate majority is now at least possible, why Trump losing Latinos is a huge deal, and what it means that Democrats are voting as if Trump is on the ballot this fall. 

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The White House and MAGA exploded in fury after Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff pointed out during a speech that Donald Trump loves to “travel with Natalie” on the presidential jet. “Natalie,” of course, is Natalie Harp, the young aide whom Trump relies on heavily for emotional support and basically controls information flows to him. Yet despite all the fake MAGA outrage, Semafor reports that in fact, Trump’s own aides are “unnerved” by their closeness. That shows Ossoff is forcing a much-needed conversation over Trump’s sunsetting and the informational bubble he resides in daily. We talked to Paul Waldman, who wrote about this saga on his Substack, The Cross Section. We discuss how Ossoff stripped bare the realities of Trump’s sunsetting, why this is what actually got MAGA so furious, why this shows Democrats should make the midterms about Trump, and what it all says about how Democrats should fight the information wars.

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The 60-day deadline for a deal between Donald Trump and Iran has passed, and he’s in a lather over it. First Trump raged to Fox News of his displeasure with Oman’s negotiations with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. “If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the s--t out of them,” he fumed nonsensically. Then, under questioning over foreign policy, he erupted at a female journalist, repeatedly instructing her to “be quiet, be quiet, be quiet” in a vile and abusive tone. Meanwhile, officials leaked their pessimism about the war to Politico, saying things like “we never should have started this war” and revealingly admitting they have no idea what “winning” over Iran even means anymore. Translation: He lost. We talked to former Defense Department official Ariane Tabatabi. She explains the current standoff, why Trump’s rage at Oman is so absurd, how his megalomaniacal belief in his own limitless strength and power has backfired, and what might happen if Iran drags this out through the midterms. 

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At a rally the other day, Donald Trump handed Democrats the perfect soundbite. “For you to pay a tiny little bit more for your gasoline,” Trump seethed, “just remember” it’s to deprive Iran of a nuclear weapon. He said higher prices are “okay,” and that “I will never apologize.” Trump’s angry sneering tone on the words “tiny little bit more” projected deep contempt for all who dare object to hardship imposed on them by his needless war, and the moment produced harsh media coverage. Separately, Trump curtly brushed off concerns among military families over long deployments and bad conditions on the U.S.S. Lincoln. We talked about all this with MS NOW’s Steve Benen, author of an interesting piece on Trump’s refusal to ever admit error. We discuss how Trump’s lifelong penchant for faking expertise is catching up with him, how Democrats can exploit this new self-own, and why political conditions suddenly resemble those that brought down George W. Bush in his second term. 

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Intriguingly, Fox News has lately been hitting Donald Trump with terrible polling news. In recent days, Fox has found Democrats slightly ahead in Senate races in Maine, Texas, and Iowa, and up by a lot in North Carolina. Critically, Trump’s own favorability numbers are very bad in all those states, even though he won three of them, two by double digits. In all four, his numbers among independents are shockingly awful. Meanwhile, on the Iran war—which is central to why his standing is cratering—Trump aides are privately feeding him hopium. The Atlantic reports that they’re showing him data on Iran’s economy, which supposedly illustrates that if he does nothing and bides his time, Iran will surrender any day now. Doing nothing is the smart play, sir! Yet as Democratic strategist Caitlin Legacki argues in this episode, Trump’s inaction on Iran is a big albatross for GOP Senate candidates. Legacki explains why Iran is central to the battle for the Senate, why those Fox polls should give Democrats grounds for cautious optimism, and what could still go wrong for them. 

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By now you’ve heard that when Donald Trump left the NATO summit in Turkey last month, he was clandestinely transferred from Air Force One to an alternative plane to avert a credible Iranian threat. It appears many of his cabinet members were left on Air Force One. Now new leaks make the story look darker: It turns out Trump brought several of the aides who are personally closest to him on the safe alternative flight. This, even as he left numerous journalists on the original plane, which effectively turned them into a decoy that might have been targeted. None were informed of the operation. It all perfectly captures Trump’s contempt for the media, so we talked to Margaret Sullivan, author of the excellent press-critiquing Substack “American Crisis.” She explains why this saga is so irregular, why the media faces a moment of uncommon challenges, and why journalists often won’t directly confront authoritarianism, even when it gravely threatens their own institution. 

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While interviewing Donald Trump, a MAGA media personality urged Trump to consider declaring a national emergency to seize control of our elecctions. Trump’s response was ugly. “Let me just say that stranger things have happened,” Trump said. “I’ll leave it at that.” In other words, Trump wants it understood that declaring a national emergency absolutely is being considered. This comes as Politico reports that Republicans are privately bracing to face Trump’s “wrath,” now that the Senate has gone on recess without passing the voter suppression legislation he wants. Republicans fear he’ll erupt at them anew over this in coming days. In short, Trump is intensifying his search for ways to rig the midterms or steal them outright. So we talked to Professor Rick Hasen, the author of the excellent Election Law Blog. He explains what’s wrong with Trump’s “national emergency” threat, how it signals genuine intent to delegitimize our elections, what election-theft options Trump has that really should worry us, and what ordinary voters can do—right now—to prepare for the worst. Listen to this episode here.

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In a fascinating new analysis, CNN’s Harry Enten calculates that Donald Trump’s net approval on the economy is 33 points underwater. That’s a shocking 42-point swing from during the 2018 midterms, when Trump was in positive territory. On top of that, Enten notes that in the most recent CNN poll, Trump’s net approval on inflation is 50 points underwater, and that this hasn’t been rivaled by any other president. Meanwhile, Republican pollsters and strategists tell The Wall Street Journal that they fear that under Trump, the GOP has thrown away its traditional advantage on the economy. And they suggest time is running out to turn that around. We talked to New Republic senior editor Alex Shephard, who has been arguing well that Trump’s unpopularity is the story of our politics. We discuss why the bottom fell out so quickly for Trump, what the punditry still gets wrong about 2024, and why Democrats won’t make a big case that on the economy, their party tends to be far better than the GOP ever is.

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In an interview with Punchbowl News, Donald Trump said straight out that his voters just might not show up for GOP candidates this fall. That’s a striking admission of one of the thorniest problems the GOP faces. But it gets worse. Trump also declared that “a lot” of his voters are “not angry at me,” but “are very angry at Republicans.” That will likely be read by his supporters as a declaration that Republicans are failing Trump, and as encouragement to stay home. Meanwhile, polling shows MAGA voters turning against his war in large numbers. And MS NOW interviewed Trump voters and found them deeply disappointed with his second term. In short, MAGA is cracking up. We talked to Shripal Shah, who runs ad expenditures for the Dem-aligned House Majority PAC. We discuss whether Trump voters are gettable by Democrats, whether the current Democratic lead in the generic House matchup is enough, and how big a challenge the tattered Dem brand really poses. 

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