Now that Donald Trump has reached a ceasefire with Iran, the scrutiny of it has been brutal, making it obvious that he got nothing of significance. In a rambling monologue to reporters, Trump excoriated Barack Obama’s Iran deal for making billions in funding available to the Iranians. But this is actually a self-own: Trump’s own arrangement uses a very similar mechanism, opening up funds as an incentive to get Iran to agree to constraints on its nuclear program later. As Tom Nichols, a staff writer at The Atlantic, says on today’s episode, Trump is “doing it exactly the way Obama did it.” And that’s after Trump also waged a needless war that cost us tens of billions of dollars, depleted our stockpiles, killed some Americans and many Iranians, strained our alliances, and wrecked the global economy. Nichols discusses his new piece arguing that the U.S. capitulated to Iran, explains how Trump left us worse off than before, and walks us through what will happen next, with Trump in a weakened state. 

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Donald Trump erupted in fury at Representative Jamie Raskin in a long, rambling Truth Social post. Trump called him a “loser” who suffers from “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” But the tirade was unintentionally revealing. Trump raged that if Raskin and Democrats win the House, they will “impeach me” and called on Congress to “EXPEL THE BUM” before it’s too late. In so doing, Trump revealed that he absolutely does fear impeachment. This gives Democrats a good argument: The last thing Trump wants is a Democratic Congress precisely because it will hold him accountable and put a check on his lawlessness. So what would this actually look like? We talked to Andy Craig, senior editor at The Unpopulist, who thinks creatively on this topic. We discuss the deeper reasons Trump fears another impeachment, all the hidden tools that the next Congress could use to constrain him, and why aggressive congressional action against Trump would rebalance our dangerously out-of-whack system. 

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Donald Trump’s polling just crashed to new lows. He’s hit a net approval on inflation of negative 50 points in numerous surveys, something no other president has done—ever. Trump also is at 80 percent disapproval on gas prices. And this is the first time Democrats have led Republicans on inflation since the 1970s. It’s no accident that this comes as sources around Trump tell CNN that he’s “furious” because the media didn’t make his latest Iran bombing look strong and powerful. These stories are linked: His failure to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is causing the very cost spikes that are tanking his approval and his party’s chances in the midterms. We talked to Democratic strategist Christina Reynolds, who has extensive experience in midterms. She explains how Trump’s travails are translating into new pickup opportunities in surprising places, parses a new poll showing Democrats up 10 in the generic House matchup, and explains why 2026 reminds her of Democratic routs in 2006 and 2018.

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Donald Trump is all over the place on Iran. After insisting a deal was imminent, he’s now threatening more full-scale bombing. He just claimed that “I love the inflation” caused by the war. And in several rants, he insisted that the United States has secretly smuggled 100 million barrels of oil out of Iran and on to the world market (the whole thing appears mostly invented). In an extraordinary exchange, Representative Emilia Sykes sharply confronted Energy Secretary Chris Wright over Trump’s “love” of inflation. Wright finally blurted out: “I would prefer lower inflation.” And Wright stammered before admitting that “um, I’m unaware” of Trump’s oil smuggling scheme. We talked to former Defense Department official Ariane Tabatabai, who’s now at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. She parses through what we know now, explains why Wright’s public meltdown captures the very worst of the Trump administration, and charts what’s next. (After we recorded, Trump resumed bombing.)

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Donald Trump faced merciless booing at the Knicks game Monday night, and Fox News figures quickly recognized how perilous this is. As Media Matters details, Fox personalities and on-air chyrons spun madly in response. They absurdly portrayed the reception as much more muddled, as inspired by something other than Trump, and even as meaningfully peppered with cheers for him. This comes as his polls just nosedived again: A new YouGov poll has Trump’s approval on the economy and inflation in the twenties. And fresh data from The Argument shows Trump deeply underwater in numerous red states with competitive Senate races. He continues to slide in the polling averages, too. We talked to Grant Wiles, a data analyst with NextGen America, which just released new research on Trump’s toxicity with young voters. We parse all the new polls, dig into why Trump propagandists fear he's in a downward spiral, and discuss how Democrats can avoid getting too complacent about the midterms.

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Over the weekend, Donald Trump exploded during an on-air interview with NBC’s Kristen Welker. He called her “crooked” and “stupid” and abruptly ended the interview in a fury. This was ostensibly because she questioned his claims that California’s ongoing vote counting is rigged against GOP candidates. But we think the real reason is darker. As the votes are being counted, those candidates—Spencer Pratt for Los Angeles Mayor and Steve Hilton for Governor—are looking weaker than advertised. In real time, Trump is witnessing the failure of MAGA’s online disinformation apparatus to invent reality whole cloth and inflate the strength of his candidates into something it isn’t. In today’s episode, tech writer Gil Duran, author of the forthcoming The Nerd Reich, a book about techno-authoritarianism, puts this in perspective. He explains the California contests, why it’s so infuriating for Trump to watch real votes coming in, why this saga represents a larger failure of Trump-MAGA online propaganda, and why that has heartening deeper implications.

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Donald Trump is desperately trying to salvage his gala commemorating the United States’s 250th anniversary after many celebrities pulled out. He let out a weird tirade insisting that he is telling them not to come, and also announced a paltry set of acts that’s downright humiliating. This comes after he seethed that he didn’t need other musical acts because he himself will be performing. Also, he’s bigger than Elvis! Trump’s plans drew savage mockery from MAGA influencer Matt Walsh, who ridiculed organizers for inviting “washed up geriatric one hit wonders,” and then turning it into a rally where “Trump will talk about himself for 90 minutes.” We talked to New Republic senior editor Alex Shephard, who writes well about Trumpism and the American zeitgeist. We discuss how Trump/MAGA had their cultural moment in 2024, how they pissed it away to inflict mass suffering on the people they hate, and the deeper reasons MAGA is so toxic within the culture. 

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This comes as The New York Times reports that extensive internal war games among military officials established that Iran would react to an attack by closing the Strait of Hormuz—which Trump ignored. And incredibly, officials just leaked to The Atlantic that Trump is privately “irritated” by commentary casting his emerging framework as weaker than Barack Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal. Trump also wants a way to argue that Iran “accepted terms from him that Obama never managed to extract.” We talked to former National Security Council veteran Emily Horne, author of the Spin Class Substack. We discuss how all those leaks themselves signal Trump’s growing weakness, why his demand for a “better” deal than Obama’s may be hopeless, and whether that leaves us any way out of this fiasco.

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As Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified before a House committee on Wednesday, Representative Ted Lieu questioned him at length about Donald Trump’s mental decline. It was an extraordinary moment. Lieu repeatedly confronted Rubio with damning video of Trump falling asleep and spewing word salad, cornering Rubio into lying about what we can all see with our own eyes. The moment captured something essential about how our politics works today—and shows why Democrats should relentlessly center Trump’s unfitness for the presidency whenever possible. We talked to Brian Beutler, author of the excellent Off Message Substack. We discuss the deeper reasons that Democrats need to pick viral fights like this, ponder how Trump understands politics through a strong-versus-weak frame, and parse through how James Talarico should combat right-wing smears in the Texas Senate race.

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Donald Trump just named William Pulte as acting Director of National Intelligence, replacing the outgoing Tulsi Gabbard. Pulte is best known for abusing his administration position to ransack the mortages of Trump’s enemies for fake pretexts to get them prosecuted and jailed. In today’s episode, University of Michigan law professor Leah Litman argues that the office of DNI could be put to even more nefarious and “terrifying” use. Indeed, GOP Senate Majority Leader John Thune suggested it may produce a “weaponized” DNI, a striking admission of serious danger ahead. Senator Tom Cotton curtly refused to share his opinion of the choice. And other GOP Senators said Pulte is unqualified for the job. Given the DNI’s power, these objections reveal visible consternation. Indeed, MAGA figures fully expect Pulte to be turned loose on the left. Litman discusses what a “weaponized” national security state under Pulte could look like and ponders whether the rule of law will survive this presidency.

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Donald Trump is hitting many new difficulties. On Monday, Iran abandoned talks with the U.S., angering Trump. Speaking to CNBC, he raged that he “couldn’t care less” if the negotiations die, threatened again to blow Iran “to kingdom come,” and seethed that NATO’s refusal to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz shows that it's “very weak” and “very sad.” (He then insisted the talks are back on track.) Meanwhile, Senate Republicans’ anxiety over the politics of Trump’s corrupt $1 billion slush fund has grown: As one reporter notes, they are “absolutely screwed.” The fund may be on hold, but this signals broader GOP frustration with Trump. We talked to Molly Jong-Fast, host of the Fast Politics podcast and author of a great TNR piece with editor Michael Tomasky on Trump’s ongoing crackup. We discuss how Trump appears stuck in a mental loop, whether our country can survive two-and-a-half more years of him, and what a final GOP breaking point might look.

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