Donald Trump hasn’t thought this one through. Politico reports that Republicans are grappling with rising “anxiety” about the midterms. A key reason: Trump’s obsession with his ballroom and other pet projects is muddying the GOP economic message. That’s bad enough. Worse, Republicans just agreed to seek $1 billion in taxpayer money for the ballroom. Though this is allegedly for security, vulnerable Republicans will hate having to defend this. It’s not just that they themselves are lamenting that the project is distracting from their message. It’s also that the ballroom is already deeply unpopular and they’re now tied more tightly to it. We talked to political scientist Tom Schaller, author of a good piece on Trump’s “vanity presidency.” He explains why the ballroom is so deadly for the GOP, how Trump is creating a uniquely “personalist” form of presidential rule, and why Trump’s megalomania actually matters to the voters who will help decide the midterms. 

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Last week, the Supreme Court gutted protections against racial gerrymandering, and Donald Trump is already urging Republicans to capitalize on it. We recently wrote that Trump has no idea what this will unleash, and that’s the topic of today’s episode. Indeed, Trump unleashed a Truth Social rant on Monday urging GOP state legislatures to maximize the gerrymandering, insisting this would net an additional 20 congressional seats in the midterms. In short, Trump didn’t bother concealing that this corrupt scheme is only about holding power amid cratering public support—which absolutely requires Democrats to respond. We talked to Max Flugrath of the voting rights group Fair Fight Action. We discuss how Democrats can undertake retaliatory redistrictings of their own, what the roadmap ahead for this looks like, and why it’s absolutely possible for Democrats to neutralize the GOP advantage. 

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Donald Trump has declared the war “terminated,” but he’s still rejecting Iran’s peace proposals while again threatening it with massive war crimes. And in an interview, Trump declared that he would never have approved an offer that was made to Iran by his negotiator, Steve Witkoff. This is a damning admission: He seemed to blurt out that he has no idea what his own representatives are offering—showing deep disengagement from the details of the talks—while demonstrating that anything his negotiators offer should not be believed. Meanwhile, Republicans are beginning to break with Trump: Politico reports that he “could soon face far more resistance.” We talked to MS NOW’s Steve Benen. He explains why Trump’s admission was so self-incriminating, why it reveals something much bigger about our crisis, why we may see more GOP defections soon, and what to look for next. 

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Public polls are showing that Democrats now have the advantage over Republicans on the economy, a milestone. Strikingly, Politico reports that a newly-leaked memo from a GOP-aligned group actually confirms the same thing. The memo warns that the group’s internal polling and research “show that for the first time, Democrats are more trusted on the economy and inflation.” It also warns that Republicans are in serious danger of losing the Senate, and strongly urges Republicans to overhaul their economic messaging in a big way. That is an absolute fiasco for Trump: It’s his economy that is putting the GOP in such grave danger. Indeed, this comes as inflation just spiked again. We talked to New Republic staff writer Monica Potts, who’s been doing good reporting on how ordinary Americans are experiencing the economy. We discuss why the GOP midterm panic is such a damning indictment of Trump, why Democrats leading on the issue is a sea change, and how they can seize control over our economic debates in a more ambitious way.

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Donald Trump’s use of state power to persecute his enemies is escalating. The Justice Department indicted James Comey for allegedly threatening Trump with a social media post of seashells spelling “86 47.” Officials are also threatening to punish more media companies for angering the despot. The Comey case is already backfiring: Now that the details have been released, legal experts have mercilessly picked it apart from numerous angles. Even Fox News is quoting experts dismantling it. And Trump himself made it look even more absurd by claiming he knows “86” means “kill” because he saw it...in a gangster movie. When these efforts fizzle, the MAGA base will see the mighty Trump failing once again. We talked to former Federal prosecutor Barbara McQuade, author of The Fix: Saving America from the Corruption of a Mob-Style Government. She explains the deep flaws in the Comey indictment, how Trump’s prosecutors are committing flagrant violations themselves, and what accountability for Trump’s accomplices could look like later.

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In today’s episode, economist Paul Krugman lays out an expansive case that Donald Trump holds a losing hand in the war with Iran. Krugman argues that Trump can’t seem to admit that the Strait of Hormuz problem has cornered him. Krugman also details why the situation could get worse, if Iran continues holding out and constraints on oil supply drive the global economy into recession. As Krugman puts it, this will keep getting uglier for Trump until he “swallows his pride” and accepts that he doesn’t hold the cards. This builds on the piece Krugman posted on his Substack arguing that time is on Iran’s side. Gas prices just hit a new high, and Republicans quietly fear their midterm prospects are darkening due to what Trump has unleashed. Krugman takes us through these dynamics, notes that Trump is obsessing over his ballroom in search of a win, and explains why this all could tailspin further for the GOP. 

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Republicans are blaming Democratic rhetoric for inciting the alleged assassination attempt at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. To that end, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt unleashed tirades at journalists that were soaked in MAGA derangement. One cultishly lionized Trump as a “fearless president” for standing up to “bullets” while absurdly accusing the media and Democrats of “11 years” of “hateful” and “violent” speech about Trump. The other tore into Democrats and the media for daring to point out that Trump poses an “existential threat to democracy,” as if that’s not rooted in his actual conduct, which it is. Yet if anything, the media has not sufficiently conveyed the threat Trump poses. We talked about this disconnect with Matt Gertz of Media Matters, who’s been writing well about the absurdity of inviting Trump to the press dinner.  We discuss the danger Trump poses for press freedom, why the media struggles to report on the threat despite being a target, why time is running out to get this right, and how Democrats should proceed now.

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Donald Trump has been losing like crazy. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The Supreme Court struck down his tariffs and his birthright citizenship arguments tanked. He's losing the redistricting wars. And the Justice Department dropped its prosecution of Fed chair (and Trump nemesis) Jerome Powell amid cringeworthy circumstances. The latter is humiliating: DOJ insiders are now leaking that they’re really ramping up the prosecution of his enemies now, by golly! But those prosecutions will likely keep failing—as they already have—and all this reveals is desperation to show MAGA that this appalling corruption will ultimately bear fruit. White House spin on this is embarrassingly geared towards lifting the ailing despot’s spirits. We talked to Zeteo reporter Asawin Suebsaeng. We discuss why MAGA-world can’t permit any acknowledgement of Trumpian fallibility, why Trump’s authoritarianism and incompetence go hand in hand, and why Republicans will pay an electoral price for helping sustain the cult of Trump. 

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A new Fox News poll contains crushing findings for Donald Trump. His approval on the economy is at 34 percent with 66 percent disapproving. On inflation, those numbers are even worse, at 28-72. Importantly, the poll also finds Democrats with the advantage on the economy for the first time in years—a milestone. Meanwhile, Trump advisers are feverishly trying to hatch a new midterm strategy. And top GOP senators tell Politico that Trumpworld is bracing for more purges of senior officials, with one senator confiding about Trump: “He’s in a bad mood, so he’s letting a lot of them go.” We talked to G. Elliott Morris, author of the great Strength in Numbers Substack, who just released his own poll. He explains what all the numbers are really telling us, why Trump has long been weaker than the punditry allows, and what must happen now for Democrats to win the House and Senate. 

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After Democrats narrowly passed a mid-decade redistricting in Virginia, Donald Trump erupted in fury on Truth Social. He slammed the result as rigged (of course), lied about the voting in it, and most important, openly called on the courts to step nullify it. But some Republicans are admitting the truth: This debacle is Trump’s fault. He initiated a redistricting arms race that now backfired spectacularly. Yet there’s a lesson in this madness: Trump-GOP cheating becomes a lot harder when Democrats fight it with scorched earth politics. We talked to Brian Beutler, who has argued well on his Off Message Substack that Democrats must get better at hard-edged politics in coming years. We discuss the deeper reasons that Democrats made a stand this time, how Trump revealed vulnerability to counter-hardball politics, and how this should shape future Democratic efforts at post-Trump accountability and fascism-proofing the system. 

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President Trump keeps boasting that a deal with Iran is at hand. But now officials leaked word to CNN that Trump’s public posturing has hurt the negotiations. One noted that by “negotiating through social media,” Trump implied Iran had agreed to things “they hadn’t yet agreed to,” complicating the talks. That’s humiliating, given Trump’s bragging of success. Meanwhile, in two cult-like tirades, Karoline Leavitt attacked the media for being insufficiently worshipful of Trump, and gushed over his greatness with extraordinary sycophancy. Can any good outcome be envisioned here? We talked to former National Security Council veteran Emily Horne. She explains why Leavitt's spin is so absurd, why this fiasco is so hard for Trump to extricate himself from, why there may be no good options ahead, and what it means that Trump has indefinitely extended the ceasefire, which he announced while we were recording. 

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