Jason and Jane are back from their holidays – Jason celebrating making the Finals of the World Championships of Backgammon and winning the Silver Medal, and Jane reflecting on her time in Morocco. But soon as they discuss the state of the world, Disorder enters as they disagree agreeably about devolution in the UK. Plus: what can or is being done with the climate crisis, and what does Abdul El-Sayed’s win in America’s Democratic primary mean for the direction the party is taking and its hope for the midterms?

For ad free listening, early release episodes and more bonus content, join our Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club - use the promo code BACKGAMMON50 for 50% off a Mega Orderers membership. Limited time only.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

For Jason’s reflections on Backgammon and Mega-Ordering and humility on losing: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/iGehf_MAyuE 

For Valeria’s art: https://backgammonbeauty.com/

You can watch the final here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UruOwdoyu8&t=8414s

Or the more (pleasing from my perspective) semi final here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yptjF5waoZ8&t=12807s

Andy Burnham on How to Fail - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aRidqdh29w 

For more on Backgammon Galaxy visit - https://www.backgammongalaxy.com/

For summer recess, we return to our favourite episodes of all time where we explain the very essence of our conception of the Enduring Disorder as a period where international institutions tend not to work and where coordinating the allies to stay on the same page about things like defence, climate change, and taxation is a tremendous challenge. The rare exception is NATO, it mostly works even if Trump rails against it.  This episode explains why.

If you didn’t hear this when it came out in October, 2023, I think you’ll enjoy checking it out now.

Nation states no longer work effectively in tandem. Gone are the days of hegemonic US power directly ordering the allies. Furthermore, groups like the UN are ineffective, with disruptors often calling the shots. However, NATO stands apart as an example of how countries can work together successfully and how a global institution can remain largely uncontroversial, while doing serious coordinating work to solve real world problems.

In this episode our hosts and guests relate their perspectives about what NATO stands for, its strengths and limitations, and the threats it faces. Former NATO Deputy Sec General, Jamie Shea tells about how the organisation worked in the Balkans and Afghanistan, while Kori Schake mulls over the role of the US as NATO’s hegemonic leader. Timothy Garton Ash comments on distinctions between NATO and the EU especially as pertains to values like liberty. Finally, Charles Kupchan examines why Russia chooses to actively disorder. Charles and Jason disagree agreeable on China’s role as an orderer vs. disorderer.

For ad free listening, early release episodes and more bonus content, join our Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

For more on Kori Schake, visit https://www.aei.org/profile/kori-schake/ 

For more on Jamie Shea, visit https://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/our-people/jamie-shea

Get Timothy Garton Ash’s book, Homelands at - https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/442543/homelands-by-ash-timothy-garton/9781847926616 

For more on Charles Kupchan, visit https://www.cfr.org/expert/charles-kupchan

This week on Disorder latest, Jason is joined by Dr Florence Gaub, futurist, military strategist, and Director of the Research Division at the NATO Defense College. Florence has spent her career thinking professionally about something most of us do rather badly: systematically plan for the future. 

Her book, The Future: A User’s Guide, was a best seller in German. It is now available in English from Hurst. It argues that the future is not simply something that happens to us. We imagine it, fear it, misunderstand it and — crucially — in thinking about it in certain flawed ways, help create it. 

Jason and Florence discuss why humans are simultaneously obsessed with the future and terrible at thinking about it: from catastrophising and the Cassandra Complex to optimism bias, surprise and science fiction. They explore why governments are so often blindsided by seemingly predictable crises — and whether strategic foresight can help Orderers stop responding to yesterday’s problems. 

In Ordering the Disorder, they discuss how imagining positive futures might itself be a tool for Ordering the Disorder. 

Producer: Sam Cluley 

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links: 

Buy Florence Gaub’s The Future: A User’s Guide: 
https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/the-future/ 

Read about Florence and her work at the NATO Defense College: 
https://www.ndc.nato.int/research/researchers/florence-gaub/ 

Listen to Florence on NATO 2099 and strategic foresight: 
https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/articles/news/2024/12/20/nato-through-time-podcast-nato-2099-with-dr-florence-gaub 

Read Florence on futurism, geopolitics and the risks of stumbling into wider war: 
https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-03-03/florence-gaub-natos-futurist-you-can-slide-into-a-world-war-even-if-nobody-wants-it.html 

For our collaboration with the Epstein Book Club who are running our Andrew Lownie Episode see here: https://www.epsteinfilesbookclub.com/the-british-component-disorder-podcast-cross-post/  

For summer recess, we return to our favourite episodes of all time where we explain the very essence of our conception of the Enduring Disorder as a period in which Disordering Neo-populists have come to power and have made the world more disorderly so they can stay in power. If you didn’t hear this when it came out on Sept 19, 2023--when we launched--I think you’ll enjoy checking it out now.

Over the past few decades leaders like Trump, Orban, and Bolsonaro have ridden a wave of popular outrage to rise to power.  But what came first: the Neo-Populists or the era of Global Enduring Disorder?

In this episode we chart the rise of the Neo-Populists, their impact on global order, and what we can do to stop them. Sean Wilentz explains the difference between real populism (like Bernie Sanders) and ‘faux’ or neo-populists (like Trump), while Anne Applebaum takes us through the missed opportunities and co-ordination failures of the post-Cold War years.

For ad free listening, early release episodes and more bonus content, join our Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

For more from Anne Applebaum, visit https://linktr.ee/anneapplebaum   

For more on Sean Wilentz, visit https://history.princeton.edu/people/sean-wilentz 

For more on Jonathan Winer, visit https://www.mei.edu/profile/jonathan-m-winer 

For more on Jamie Shea, visit https://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/our-people/jamie-shea

This week, Jason is joined by a real life Mega-Orderer--Jamison Firestone, acclaimed lawyer, author, and activist. He witnessed firsthand Russia's descent from the promise of the Yeltsin years into the corruption and authoritarianism of Vladimir Putin's regime.Firestone was also the employer and close colleague of Sergei Magnitsky, whose death after exposing a massive tax fraud inspired the Magnitsky sanctions now used by democracies around the world to target corrupt officials and human rights abusers.Jamison joins Disorder to discuss his powerful new memoir, Rule of Lies, and to unpick piece by piece from his insider tales how Russia's descent into kleptocracy happened.Jason and Jamison also reflect on their mutual friend Sir Bill Browder, the legacy of the martyred Alexei Navalny, and why Navalny's extraordinary moral courage bears comparison with figures such as Socrates and even Jesus.

As they Order the Disorder, they turn from diagnosis to solutions. Should the West finally confiscate the roughly $300 billion of frozen Russian state assets? Why has Belgium remained one of the principal obstacles? What can be done to make it give up the Goose that lays the Golden Egg? And could coordinated international action overcome the legal and political barriers? If democracies are serious about confronting authoritarianism, this conversation argues that defending the rule of law requires more than sanctions—it requires the courage to act.

Producer: Sam Cluley

Subscribe to our Substack https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube -https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:Jamison Firestone:https://jamisonfirestone.com/

Buy Rule of Lies:https://www.harpercollins.com/products/rule-of-lies-jamison-r-firestone

Justice for Sergei Magnitsky:https://russian-untouchables.com/eng/Punish Putin campaign:https://punishputin.com/

Listen to our first Disorder episode with Sir Bill Browder:https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a36160dede2b990a59c34c3c4e8eeece

The Magnitsky Act (U.S. Congress):https://www.congress.gov/bill/112th-congress/house-bill/4405

In this episode of Disorder latest, Jason updates on the for-ever war in Iran and the Straight of Hormuz and how the disorder we are experiencing over there is conceptually connected to the bigger concepts of the Disorder pod: the Global Enduring Disorder and the rise of the Neopopulists. He does this via a conversation on the Disinformation Detox with Nolan Higdon, which we air with our own intro. 

Producer: Sam Cluely 

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links: 

The U.S. and Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz intensifies https://www.npr.org/2026/07/15/nx-s1-5894582/us-iran-updates  

Disorder is through to the next judging round for the News, Politics & Current Affairs category of the British Podcast Awards. You can see the full longlist here: https://www.britishpodcastawards.com/longlist-2026  

Vote for Disorder in the British Podcast Awards listeners choice here https://www.britishpodcastawards.com/voting  

Watch The Founding Fathers were Mega Orderers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vFfnhFNsJ0  

Subscribe to the Disinfo Detox: https://www.youtube.com/@DisinfoDetox 

Subscribe to Gaslight Gazette: ⁠https://www.nolanhigdon.substack.com⁠  

Learn more at: ⁠https://www.NolanHigdon.com 

Fresh from her trip to Ankara for the NATO Summit, Jane rejoins Jason to discuss what she learned about NATO, the mood among the allies, and why the Europeans are moving further away from Trump. Plus: Farage’s resignation and by-election, how that is connected to the Marine Le Pen court ruling in France, and then to Order the Disorder: Jason argues that we should look no further than the America’s Founding Fathers and the principles they articulated and lived by.

For ad free listening, early release episodes and bonus episodes, join our Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Vote for Disorder in the British Podcast Awards listeners choice here https://www.britishpodcastawards.com/voting 

Watch The Founding Fathers were Mega Orderers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vFfnhFNsJ0 

Listen to our episode with Frank Vogl - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/ZDU5ZDRjNTItMDg5ZS0xMWYwLWI5ZGItN2YwZDA5MmE4ZWVh 

Listen to Amb. Minuto-Rizzo about the NATO summit: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1bHVQ2n7sLUUQnxtLPdjvv   

On Farage and British dislike of political sleaze - https://x.com/yougov/status/2075501188036899216?s=46&t=Tbkgp9CYb-P2gQf2YVZ19g 

We start the episode with Jason’s reflections on the July 4th holiday and America’s Big Birthday. For more on this check out the first YouTube below in the Links. He believes that our Founding Fathers were Mega Orderers and men of tremendous principle who trusted experts. Therefore, to celebrate the holiday, he wanted to have someone on the pod who has lived his life courageously, respectfully, and with principle. Therefore, this week, Jason is joined by Dr Hal Bradley, reformed drug smuggler, former informant for the FBI, and author of more than 10 books. Dr Hal and Jason discuss his life story, his take on the Epstein files, and how understanding and co-operation can help us Order the Disorder. 

Hal showcases his revolutionary and principled life and his conversion story. He also explains how despite Trump’s big bluster about tackling drug smuggling across the border, little has been done. So what does a former drug smuggler think should be done to truly Order this Disorder? Listen to find out.

For ad free listening, early release episodes and bonus episodes, join our Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Watch Jason explain how The Founding Fathers were Mega Orderers:

 https://youtu.be/_vFfnhFNsJ0 

Watch/listen to Jason with Dr Alon Ben Meir talking about the situation in Iran and the status of the MoU and regional ceasefires as at the end of June: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVL5UNy6Ruc&list=PLbO4E8pRmwIedcPIBowZQkbjzxJ0AXKjI 

Watch Jason on Dr Hal’s show - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NtUvVDRQ4zs 

Get Dr Hal’s book, A Fox In the Lion's Den: A Fictionalized and Fact-Based Autobiography of the Life of Dr. Hal A. Bradley, here: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Fox-Lions-Den-Fictionalized-Autobiography/dp/B09SBY5GCY 

In this episode of Disorder, Jane Kinninmont is joined by Peter Salisbury, Adjunct Assistant Professor at Columbia University, and Senior Fellow at the Century Foundation, who has spent years tracking the illicit supply chains fuelling the war in Yemen. His upcoming report, launching at King's College London, is essential reading for anyone trying to understand how the Houthis went from a little-known insurgent group to a force capable of disrupting global shipping.

Jane and Peter discuss how the Houthis learned to manufacture their own drones and missiles rather than simply receiving them from Iran, the outsized role China now plays in supplying the components that power this new generation of weapons, the fragile Saudi-Houthi truce since 2022, and what the changing economics of drone warfare mean for the future of arms control.

For ad free listening, early release episodes and bonus episodes, join our Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club

Producer: Sam Cluley

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

The report that Pete is talking about can be found here: https://tcf.org/content/report/beyond-the-axis/ 

This week it’s time for listener questions! And pls note that members of the Mega Orderer’s club get their questions answered first. Jane and Jason discuss: why Russia is pretending to be happy with Starmer resigning, the potential role of Turkey, Saudi, Pakistan and Egypt in Ordering the Strait of Hormuz, Elon Musk becoming the world’s first trillionaire, whether Iran and America will ever agree on anything, the US’ behaviour throughout the World Cup, and why western governments seemingly can’t get anything done and what happened to bold elected centrist leaders.

For ad free listening, early release episodes and in future, full episodes of our listener questions and the unlimited right to get your questions answered, join our Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Read: Big Tech is stoking unrest in the UK. Why? https://www.ft.com/content/0f3e33d2-0b9e-481d-a911-245d8cc01a9c?syn-25a6b1a6=1 

Listen to Keen On: The Trouble with Trillionaires: Mordecai Kurz on Capitalism, Democracy, and the Second Gilded Age: https://www.keenon.tv/videos/the-trouble-with-trillionaires-mordecai-kurz-on-capitalism-democracy-and-the-second-gilded-age/ 

Don’t you just love when decency interjects and sometimes people do the right thing, the orderly thing, the sane thing? Well voters of Makerfield have chosen order and unity over disorder and division, and now Starmer has done the right thing. The Orderly Transition to Burnham is on its way and it is an example of a prime opportunity for the institutions of Britain to showcase themselves to the domestic and international publics as orderly and functional.  So Jason starts by introducing this existing moment and then pivoting to regularly scheduled programming about international ordering that still works: NATO.

With the NATO Summit in Ankara fast approaching, will the fractures between Europe and America be on full display? Or will one of the world’s most successful alliances in human history come together and make a show of unity?

To preview the summit and survey global affairs from peacemaking to defence spending, Jason is joined by Ambassador Alessandro Minuto-Rizzo, the President of the NATO Defense College Foundation and former Deputy Secretary General of NATO (2001-8). The duo discuss what will come out of the Ankara communique, the future of Italian politics, and as they Order the Disorder - the role of NATO in the years to come. Ambassador Minuto-Rizzo puts forth his solutions to the Ukraine war, various ideas why giving up territory might not be that important these days, and his overall philosophy of optimism and keeping calm and carrying on. It might not be how everyone would look at global affairs, but it is very interesting that a man with five decades of high level diplomatic experience has this approach.  Hope you enjoy.

For ad free listening, early release episodes and more bonus content, join our Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

For more on the work of the Foundation: https://www.natofoundation.org/

For more on Amb Minuto-Rizzo’s background and that of the foundation: https://www.natofoundation.org/about-us/

For more on Amb Minuto-Rizzo’s comments on global security alliances: https://www.natofoundation.org/regions-at-the-centre-cooperative-security-cooperation-versus-fragmentation/

For a great pod on what Burnham needs to do for an Orderly transition: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-fourcast/id1542796249?i=1000773763527