It is our favourite time of the month, listeners questions!

This week Jason and Jane take listener questions around topics including: Will Netanyahu be ousted in this year’s elections? Have the Israeli anti-Bibi bloc learned the lessons of Hungary before the next parliamentary elections? Can Reform UK be trusted to do what they say they will? Is a constantly changing leader now the norm in UK politics? Does Trump’s trip to China change anything? And what’s the Disordering role of the UAE in global politics? And should the West give the UAE a tough love approach to help them play the role of global citizen better?

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Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Pls find out about the 8 June 530pm in Westminster live podcast event and join the Mega Orderers club or Pay for Substack here to attend here: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/p/disorder-live-podcast-at-un-association 

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events like the 8 June 530pm Westminster event, visit disordershow.com/club

Jane’s recommended The Economist Bagehot column on whether Britain is ungovernable https://www.economist.com/britain/2026/04/22/sir-keir-starmer-cannot-govern-he-has-only-himself-to-blame 

Read Will Self’s new column on Starmer as mentioned by Jane https://x.com/wself/status/2054946706723160363 

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The crises across our disordered world are more interconnected than ever. As states pursue their own self-interest, genuine collective action for mutual shared benefit seems further away than ever before. How can we ever hope to Order this Disorder?

To try, Jason is joined this week by his old friend David Tafuri. David previously served as the US Department of State’s Rule of Law Coordinator for Iraq, was an outside foreign policy advisor to President Obama’s campaign in 2008, has worked for the United Nations in Turkey, and is the founder and current President of the US-Kurdistan Business Council.

The pair start with the latest in Ukraine--following up on David’s recent visit there. Then they embark on a whistle stop tour of the Middle East, exploring the latest in Iraq, Syria, Israel, and Lebanon. And… as they Order the Disorder, the discuss the situation in the Gulf, how the Gulfis and European Allies could help open Hormuz, the need to tackle misinformation, and why the Trump admin needs to put aside its destructive unilateralism and work more closely with traditional American allies on Ukraine and the Iran war.

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club

To tell us more about Disorder, visit disordershow.com/survey 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club

Watch more on David’s attempts to address misinformation in Ukraine:  https://youtube.com/shorts/TWRqQNojKvg?si=dRu81hERC5-HYGNz

More on David’s career here: https://www.afslaw.com/attorneys/david-tafuri 

Plus his reporting from Ukraine’s frontline: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DYX_0c8kTjl/?igsh=eTY2dHh4Zm44eTJp 

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Today marks the 18th anniversary of the arrest of Ryan Cornelius, a British businessman stuck in jail on dubious charges over a real estate development project gone awry. And yet… the UK Government is doing nothing substantive to get his release, too scared to pressure a close ally. Does this episode showcase a key aspect of the Enduring Disorder: medium power democracies are too scared to pressure their wealthy allies to abide by the rule of law?

Originally sentenced to 10 years for a ‘crime’ -- that the first Emirati judge that saw the case declared was unsubstantiated -- he remains still detained after his initially unproved sentence was extended by a further 20 years. The UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention has found his detention to be arbitrary, and his family has spent years campaigning for the UK and UAE authorities to secure his release. 

To find out more about this case and what it reveals about international relations, Jason is joined by Chris Pagett, Ryan’s brother-in-law. This is the first in our ever-other Thursday Disorder Latest series. Chris and Jason discuss what the UK Government should (and has so far failed to) do, the ways that automatic sanctions could order the disorder, and why cases like this spread in our era of Enduring Disorder and in turn spread yet further Disorder.

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Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club

Read: MPs call for sanctions over British man detained in Dubai for 17 years

https://www.irishnews.com/news/uk/mps-call-for-sanctions-over-british-man-detained-in-dubai-for-17-years-HSOY7IGZZRJGNEO5TA3KGFZUYA/ 

Read: Dubai prisoner: Wife pleads for help to get husband home https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-62162686 

Read: Families of UK prisoners detained abroad urge ministers to keep promises of help https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jul/16/families-of-uk-prisoners-abroad-urge-ministers-to-keep-promises-to-help 

Watch Chris in conversation with Iain Duncan Smith: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9QXdNGsj_A 

A brilliant article from a few years back that tells the story in its entirety: https://www.economist.com/1843/2021/12/15/the-dubai-debt-trap 

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This week on Disorder, in a slight break from the Mayhem in the UK over the possible Leadership challenge to Starmer, Jane catches up with the President and CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and host of the Deep Dish podcast, Leslie Vinjamuri. Leslie and Jane used to work together at Chatham House. They start by discussing Leslie’s final project for Chatham House where she worked with a host of experts to analyse how rising powers, middle powers and US adversaries see the international order as well as new possible ideas of global Order. 

Surprise, surprise mega-orderers, the conversation proves the depressing result that we already know! -- i.e. that there are no serious alternative visions of order that are emerging and no non-neo-populists are putting forth compressive visions of global order. Will the continuance of the Enduring Disorder therefore be the hallmark of our times?

Probably yes :-< On a brighter note, Leslie thinks the US will revert to a more “normal” politics in Trump’s wake. Jane is not so sure: she and Leslie discuss why the UK hasn’t been able to “get back to normal” under Keir Starmer and how the breakdown of the political centre is making it harder and harder to address the long-term economic issues that underpin Britain’s current malaise. 

This week we also delve into Trump’s trip to China; the role of Europeans in enabling China, and how different camps in Washington are looking at the China trip - with think-tankers pretty skeptical that it will make any difference, while business leaders are eager to join the trip to what is, after all, the world’s second biggest market for most of them. No matter what happens there we must ask is Europe working with or against the US’s China policy? And will any coherent transatlantic order emerge out of a re-alignment over China?

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club

To tell us more about Disorder, visit disordershow.com/survey 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club

Leslie’s podcast, Deep Dish - https://globalaffairs.org/commentary/podcasts/deep-dish-global-affairs-podcast 

Leslie on Bloomberg about Trump and Xi - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-05-11/us-iran-tensions-flare-ahead-of-trump-xi-meeting-video 

Leslie’s Chatham House project on competing visions of the international order - https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/competing-visions-international-order 

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In the May 7, 2026 UK elections, Reform won biggly. They did so well that they even stole the show from the ascendent Celtic nationalists in the periphery. Gaining thousands of councillors in England, becoming the second largest party in Wales and the joint second biggest in Scotland. Meanwhile, in Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland the biggest parties (Plaid Cymru, SNP, and Sinn Fein) are all separatists. This has ushered in disorderly ‘five party politics’ in England and a real threat to the union emanating from a Celtic periphery led by parties that wish to break up the UK. 

On this special episode of Disorder we ask: does the UK have a future at all anymore? Will it be very disorderly? And what are Reform’s actual policies?

To find out – and in our attempt to present a range of views on Disorder – Jason and Mark are joined by Alan Mendoza, Chief Advisor on Global Affairs to Reform UK. The duo push Alan to clarify Reform’s actual policies around local government, migration, and Reform’s attitudes to Brexit. Jason sees Reform as Disorders, but Alan makes a full throated and quite eloquent case as to why he sees Reform as Orderers rather than Disorderers. 

Hopefully the debate is podcasting at its best, filled with respectful disagreements that elucidate the underlying differences in world views. Either way, Reform UK is here to stay so we might as well understand them.

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club

To tell us more about Disorder, visit disordershow.com/survey 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club

How the winner-takes-all voting system has turned on Labour and the Tories: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxpqyndqwlo

How Reform won votes from Swansea to Sunderland

 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy2nz4gwj5o

Hear Alan’s previous appearance on Disorder: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/YTk0MzNmZDQtY2JhMS0xMWVmLWJjYTQtOGJjMjMxNmNhZTli 

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Something smells royally fishy. The stench has been detected wafting from Sandringham all the way to Balmoral. The scandals around Lord Mandelson and former Prince Andrew have showcased that the rich and powerful have been operating beyond the law and that royal sinecures have been used to obscure the provenance of ill-gotten gains.

Consider: In America, you make your money. But in Britain, you can use it for access. If the Epstein affair has shown us anything, it’s that a royal seal of approval is infinitely valuable. Friendship with a top working Royal takes one from the shady jet set into the global elite establishment. And if you can buy a royal seal of approval - like Epstein did with former Prince Andrew -- you get the keys to some of the most influential people in the world.

To discuss Epstein’s relationship with Prince Andrew, Ghislaine Maxwell and Sarah Ferguson, Jason is joined this week by Andrew Lownie, author of the Sunday Times number 1 Best Selling book, Entitled: The Rise and Fall of the House of York. The pair look at what made Andrew’s personality so easily corruptible, how Andrew’s narcissism and megalomania were fueled, the role of Royal Reputation Washing across the globe, and why there could be more nasty revelations about what the royals have been up yet to come. Plus, as they Order the Disorder, they discuss making the royal family more accountable, transparent, and better at serving the British people.

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit ⁠disordershow.com/club⁠

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For more on our partnership with the New Books Network visit: ⁠https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder⁠ 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit ⁠disordershow.com/club⁠

Get Andrew’s Book, Entitled: The Rise and Fall of the House of York ⁠https://www.amazon.co.uk/Entitled-bestselling-devastating-biography-written/dp/0008775451

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This week’s episode was recorded before the Trump Assassination attempt at the White House Correspondents dinner, but Jason inserted a late breaking addition to reference it at the start. In the regularly scheduled programming, Jane and Jason take a range of listener questions on topics like: Is the Iran War on or off? Does the downfall of Victor Orban mean a turn away from neo-populism and authoritarianism? Are Starmer’s incremental moves towards the EU Mega Ordering or not? Will he be forced out of office on May 8? And will the dynamics of the Iran war and higher oil prices change things between Ukraine and Russia? And what is Israeli ‘hasbarah’=public diplomacy and does it fuel antisemitism?

And as they Order the Disorder, the duo experiment with a quick fire round where they discuss: What might actually happen on US-Iran negotiations, Trump’s tanking approval ratings, his constant firing of staff, Virginia Redistricting, and what that means for this year’s Congressional midterms.

To tell us more about Disorder win a chance for money, visit disordershow.com/survey

Write us to get your question answered at [email protected]

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases, exclusive access to live events AND A GUARENTEE WE ANSWER YOUR QUESTIONS, visit disordershow.com/club

Watch Jane’s Iran series here https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLsRO_Izf4VcJkN3vlpbFdTYnx0lpZyPus

Listen to Jason on The Bunker discuss Orban’s defeat and its implications for US and EU politics here https://podcasts.apple.com/in/podcast/populism-will-eat-itself-how-orb%C3%A1ns-defeat-changes-the-game/id1496246490?i=1000761547591&l=ml

Listen to Jason on BBC Scotland talk about the Assassination attempt on Trump at the WHCA: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002vm42

Watch Jason recapitulate the Disorder Paradigm on a sister show Democrats v Dictators:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFJekUfZ6wg

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Over the last week, a spate of Jewish communal targets have been attacked in North London. According to its founder Theodore Herzl, Zionism was supposed to normalize the position of Jews in the world. Has Zionism failed or is a new consensus form of Zionism still the answer to these outbursts of Disorderly Antisemitism?

In 2026, April 21 is Israel’s Independence Day. These are tough times for the Jewish State in international public opinion. By all accounts it has made mistakes, violated international law, committed war crimes. But it has also been defending itself against an unprecedented multipronged assault.  Other states don’t risk losing their international legitimacy because they have bad or immoral leadership.

Support among Americans and Europeans for Israel is down and even young diasporic Jews report increasingly negative appraisals of Israel.  To investigate the situation in the Middle East, the position of Jews in Britain, and the rise of anti-semitic attacks on Britain’s Jewish community, I am joined by returning Champion Phil Rosenberg. He is the President of the Board of Deputies of British Jews.  Phil is a former Labour councilor for West Hampstead and previously Director of the Faiths Forum for London.

In today’s episode, we wish to use this commemorative day to look at a few deeper questions:  How is Antisemitism surging globally and why? How does  Antisemitism manifest itself in the UK and Australia and how it is fascinating how differently it portrays from anti-Americanism? What is Zionism? Is it relevant in today’s world? Is it part of an orderly world or is it a Disordering ideal? What is the Role of international entities and Diasporic Jews in supporting Israel’s right to defend itself while criticizing certain policies? 

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club

To tell us more about Disorder, visit disordershow.com/survey 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

A Partial list of the North London Arson Attacks: https://x.com/philr_r/status/2045605612072132860?s=46&t=cw4unVonh1qJ-YBPzgIl2Q

Origen Story on the Meaning of Zionism : https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/zionism-part-1/id1624704966?i=1000618863154

Call Me Back Pod.. Analysts find in the Iran-Israel-America War confirmation of their pre-existing political beliefs: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-continuation-of-war-by-other-means-with-tal-becker/id1539292794?i=1000761725136 

Iran directed arson attacks in Australia and ‘fanned the flames’ of antisemitism, country’s spy chief says: https://emea01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Faustralia-news%2F2025%2Faug%2F26%2Firan-directed-arson-attacks-in-australia-spy-chief-says-ntwnfb&data=05%7C02%7C%7C605a5ea26d9b48554e2408de9d6ca385%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C639121287069184737%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=1wSJ%2BxaXICsYlRBvsu2Rbd4MJ08DRc%2BrqlbAIv%2Fv0HU%3D&reserved=0

The most recent Sunday morning April 19 attack: https://www.thejc.com/news/uk/attempted-arson-attack-at-kenton-united-synagogue-in-northwest-london-pfbikif1

And: https://x.com/philr_r/status/2045782024338768271?s=46&t=cw4unVonh1qJ-YBPzgIl2Q

What is the Board of Deputies: https://bod.org.uk/ 

Phil’s Bio: https://bod.org.uk/who-we-are/phil-rosenberg/ 

Phil’s Article: https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/were-family-not-critical-friends-rosenberg-sets-out-boards-israel-stance/

History of Israel Independence Day: https://nationaltoday.com/israel-independence-day/

Trump and Tehran’s series of mismanaged posts stall progress towards peace

Patrick Wintour https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/18/donald-trump-tehran-war-mismanaged-posts-progress-peace 

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The Chinese are cleaning our clock when it comes to lithium batteries and EVs, while the Russians still dominate at nuclear energy? Why? Why can’t the West play the geopolitics of climate change better? Why can’t Western countries work together to prepare for, mitigate, and profit from the upcoming cataclysm? Why are we sleepwalking off the cliff?

 To find out, we return to friend of the show and former Co-host Arthur Snell returns to Disorder to explore the themes of his new book, Elemental: The New Geography of Climate Change and How We Survive it. The overall approach of the book showcases how the Enduring Disorder paradigm epitomizes the collective action challenges democracies face as they compete against each other and see-saw from one policy to another while dictatorships tend to think much more long term when it comes to how to prepare for the opportunities and challenges of climate change.

This investigation comes at a highly relevant time as the Iran War has made clear how the geopolitics of energy, electricity, AI Data centres, critical minerals, and climate change are the top table issues of our day. Arthur and Jason start off talking about the situation in the Straight of Hormuz and how developments there will affect the energy transition. They quickly pivot to a discussion of the geopolitics of the Arctic and Antarctic, especially the scramble for the Northwest Passage.  

Jason points out that China has been strategic about how to benefit from climate change, while Western nations have only notched tactical successes, but have not systematically prepared for the top table challenges that climate changes poses for humanity.

As they Order the Disorder, Arthur explores who the approach of Antarctic of international legal treaties could be expanded to other domains and how we could international, socialize, and demilitarize the geopolitics of climate change.

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club

To tell us more about Disorder, visit disordershow.com/survey 

For more on our partnership with the New Books Network visit: https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Relentless sun and ruthless populists: how the climate crisis will change the next 20 years https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2026/mar/04/arthur-snell-interview-geopolitics-climate-crisis-book-elemental?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Elemental: The New Geography of Climate Change and How We Survive it https://www.hachette.co.uk/titles/arthur-snell/elemental-the-new-geography-of-climate-change-and-how-we-survive-it/9781035412945/

Listen and watch Jason explain ‘How will the Iran war reshape global supply chains?’  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UoZyAP5tFXo

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As the Iran conflict enters its sixth week and Trump’s ultimatum is upon us, what is Trump’s real plan here? Is it merely to Disorder, or is he genuinely seeking to negotiate his way out of this conflict?

To discuss the latest, including the role of Europe and whether the Strait of Hormuz can be theoretically and practically opened by military force, Jason is joined by Michael Stephens, senior fellow at Global Nation and an associate fellow at RUSI. He ran to be an MP for the Tories in Putney; he speaks Hebrew and Arabic; and has decades of expertise in the Gulf States, Syria, and inside the UK government. Michael and Jason discuss the theological background to the Islamic Republic’s ideology, the positive role Britain can play, whether the mere existence of this conflict helps the Chinese exert more power globally, and what the Europeans could do to Order the Disorder if they wanted to.

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club

To tell us more about Disorder, visit disordershow.com/survey

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club

To tell us more about Disorder, visit disordershow.com/survey

Listen and watch Jason explain ‘How will the Iran war reshape global supply chains?’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UoZyAP5tFXo

Listen and watch Jason explain, ‘Why did Trump fire Pam Bondi?’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id8jarTtdFI

Want to learn more about Shi’i Islam and how it informs the Islamic Republic’s decision making, read Moojan Momen’s brilliant An Introduction to Shi’i Islam: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Introduction-Shii-Islam-History-Doctrines/dp/0300034997

To listen to our previous interview with Michael visit https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/Zjk5NzljMzItOGNkNS0xMWYwLWFiNGEtMDNjMjExN2VkNWU3

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This week, Mark Lobel and Jane Kinninmont take listener questions on topics including: the future of Iran and the Iranian people, the decline of Britain’s naval power, whether NATO can survive Trump’s ongoing attacked, what role the Enduring Disorder played in causing Brexit, and how to solve global inequality.

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Give feedback on Disorder here: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/CX7JB3W 

You can get in touch with Mark, to host or speak at your event here: https://www.mark-lobel.com/getintouch 

Chatham House Prize | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/03/sudans-volunteer-led-aid-network-receives-2025-chatham-house-prize  

Donate to the Emergency Response Rooms - Donate | Support Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms — SUDAN MUTUAL AID COALITION — SUDAN MUTUAL AID COALITION - https://www.mutualaidsudan.org/donate 

Article that makes the case for the Iran war - https://apple.news/Ac9j4I-MHSFuj6tgL1zCiUA 

Senate foreign relations committee on the folly of waiving sanctions on Iran’s oil - https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/dem/release/shaheen-schumer-reedwarner-warren-statementon-trump-administrationdecision-to-ease-iran-oil-sanctions 

The Times on European leaders considering a scenario where the U.S. makes a deal with Russia and turns its back on Europe - https://apple.news/A-NCiRk_2QVCXwWoStWlppg 

U.K. Parliament’s Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy says U.K. must plan for a transition to greater European leadership of NATO - https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/111/national-security-strategy-joint-committee/news/212889/mps-and-lords-call-for-more-clarity-on-governments-plan-for-uk-national-security/ 

Frankly podcast on “What To Do As The World Falls Apart” which Jane found super interesting - and which highlighted the need to think now, in the current window of relative stability, about the institutions of the future, before the institutions of today actually fall apart (referenced in our discussion on NATO) - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-great-simplification-with-nate-hagens/id1604218333?i=1000756316022 

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