Global stocks are firmer this morning and oil prices slipped on hopes for de-escalation in Iran, but the focus is on a Donald Trump speech due at 1pm Sydney/Melbourne time. And manufacturing in Asia remains strong. For now.

And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari analyses how the Middle East conflict is affecting the global aluminium market.

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Stocks jump on hopes for de-escalation in Iran. RBA minutes show four dissenters weren’t against hiking, just the timing; And New Zealand business confidence slumps in March as fuel prices jumped.

And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses the further impact on oil and the world economy if Red Sea trade becomes disrupted by the Middle East conflict.

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Markets wobbled overnight with conflicting accounts of when the Iran conflict might end. Bond yields fell on hope inflation may not rise too much. And we get data today on Australian lending growth and NZ business confidence.

And then in our deep-dive interview,ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur, analyses the fiscal effects of the fuel subsidies, and how long before they may have to be abandoned.

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The conflict in Iran widens again over the weekend after global stocks and bonds sell off aggressively. Brent crude jumps again, and the US dollar strengthens. And consumer confidence falls in both the United States and New Zealand.

And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell looks at why the Fed is likely to look through the latest energy price shock, even though it was criticized for doing the same thing in 2022, when inflation failed to recede quickly.

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Oil rises 5% on uncertainty about a US peace deal with Iran. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is concerned about higher inflation expectations becoming embedded, and ANZ Research has lowered its Australian GDP forecasts.

And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari analyses how gold has fallen since the Middle East conflict escalated as US rate cut expectations disappeared.

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Oil eases and stocks rise on Middle East ceasefire hopes, even as Iran rejects a US peace plan. And Australia’s annual inflation fell slightly in February, as household spending eased off.

And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Agri Economist Matt Dilly explains how the oil price shock is affecting global fertiliser prices and on-farm costs in New Zealand.

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Oil is back up 5% as caution returns to the outlook for the Middle East conflict. The RBNZ signals no knee-jerk moves but is watching inflation expectations. And Australian inflation expectations jump to a record high as confidence plunges.

And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma looks at the tail end risks for Asian economies from a prolonged supply shock due to the Middle East conflict.

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US President Donald Trump has postponed his threatened strikes on Iranian power and desalination plants. Markets rally on hopes for de-escalation. And New Zealand’s new Reserve Bank Governor, Anna Breman, speaks today.

And then in part two of a deep-dive interview with ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes, he details why any resumption of oil production won’t be easy, or quick.

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US President Donald Trump threatens to destroy Iran’s power and water plants. In response, Iran threatens to strike US infrastructure across the Persian Gulf. Markets are set to react badly. Also, ANZ Research changes its call for the next Fed cut.

And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes explains how the latest strikes on oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf will change global energy markets, structurally.

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Oil hits US$119 a barrel after Iran hits Qatar’s big LNG plant hard. Gas prices rise 35%. The Fed, Bank of Japan and the ECB all hold rates to take stock of the Middle East conflict. Australia’s jobless rate rises.

And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt analyses how New Zealand’s economy hung onto growth in Q4.

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Oil climbs and stocks fall as Persian Gulf facilities are hit. Australia’s jobs market likely remained tight in February. Attention now turns to the Bank of Japan and ECB after the Fed’s rate decision as this podcast goes to air.

And then our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou analyses how exposed Asia’s economies are to oil and LNG from the Middle East.

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