In this episode of Econ 102 originally aired on the Sphere Podcast, Noah Smith and Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry sit down for a debate on immigration. They cover the philosophical underpinnings of their arguments, where they find common ground, border enforcement, deportation, public opinion, and more.

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• Noah Smith and Pascal Emmanuel Gobry (PEG) engaged in a debate about immigration policy, focusing primarily on illegal immigration and enforcement approaches.
• The conversation centered on philosophical positions about borders, practical enforcement strategies, and the societal impacts of immigration policies.
• Both agreed that nations should have borders and control who enters, though they differed on enforcement methods.
• Noah advocated for employer-focused enforcement through company audits and fines rather than deportations.
• PEG supported stronger deportation measures and argued for the value of deterrence.
• They debated whether deportations would reduce crime affecting legal residents.
• Both agreed on the fiscal costs of illegal immigration as a significant issue.
• They discussed the political challenges of passing immigration reform.

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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
05:00 – Philosophical Foundations: Borders, Nations, and Policy
09:00 – “No Human is Illegal” & Historical Context
13:25 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite
15:30 – Enforcement, Detention, and Public Perception
24:00 – Asylum Law, Legislative Gridlock, and Political Realities
28:10 – Sponsor: Found
41:00 – Mass Deportation: Crime, Economics, and Evidence
56:00 – Trust, Public Sentiment, and Policy Limits
1:10:00 – Final Thoughts & Outro
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Listen to the Sphere Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/48eWEcxSYDyrgjC3lO0EJZ

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCB2gs2TBXeP7vyn9QUaaxjQ
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Noah - https://x.com/Noahpinion

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore AI's effects on productivity, how AI business models will shake out, the US and China's rare earth minerals industries, and China's economic challenges, including demographics, real estate, and involution.

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• AI can affect productivity in multiple ways: replacing humans, enhancing human productivity, creating new tasks, and increasing capital productivity
• AI may follow other essential industries with low profit margins despite creating enormous value:
  • Like farming, solar power, and airlines
• Code-related AI applications are seeing particularly strong adoption
• Vertical AI applications in specific industries (healthcare, legal, real estate) are gaining traction
• China controls the majority of rare earth mining and refining
• The US has sufficient rare earth deposits but faces two challenges:
  • Regulatory barriers to mining
  • Lack of solvent extraction technology and know-how
• China's fertility rate is lower than Japan and Europe
• However, a "baby bulge" (ages 7-22) will support the workforce short-term

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Timestamps:
00:00 — Intro
00:52 — AI’s impact on productivity
02:27 — Debating whether AI will increase productivity
03:11 — Historical analogy: Electricity’s impact on productivity, lessons for AI
07:55 — Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite
09:57 — Application layer companies, AI in coding, vertical AI applications
12:49 — AI bubble vs. CapEx boom/bust, historical parallels (railroads, telecoms)
16:54 — Brand loyalty, price wars, and profitability in AI models
22:26 — US-China trade, rare earths, and supply chain challenges
32:20 — Sponsor: Found
33:33 — China’s demographic and economic challenges, over-competition, and deflation
54:06 — Recommendations for China’s economic policy, rationalizing the economy
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https://x.com/Noahpinion

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover the transformation of global manufacturing, the rise of the electric tech stack, the landscape of jobs and economic policy, and the state of today's online discourse.

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and explore how AI is reshaping the economy, jobs, business profitability, industry competition, and financing, while drawing historical parallels and offering insights into its broader societal impact.

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• AI Bubble Prediction: The speaker forecasts an AI crash similar to the 2001 dot-com bust, but believes AI will ultimately succeed long-term
• Employment Evolution, Not Elimination: Research shows unemployment rising in jobs that use AI less, contradicting fears that AI directly replaces workers
• Data Center Financing Risks: How financing methods for AI infrastructure could create systemic risks similar to the 2008 financial crisis if private credit becomes the main vehicle
• Bond Market Shift: Companies like Meta are increasingly issuing their own bonds rather than using opaque private credit markets, a healthier approach to AI infrastructure financing
• Multiple Winners in AI: How the massive size of AI markets is enabling multiple successful companies in each category despite traditional concerns about moats
• Venture Capital's AI Approach: a16z has been investing heavily in AI companies but feels they've been "too conservative" given the multiple winners emerging across categories

Quotes:

"We tend to think that the markets are just so much bigger, and so even if there's no traditional moats protecting it from other entrants, that there can be multiple winners in a category.” - Erik Torenberg

LINKS:

• The a16z podcast: ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX⁠
• Noahpinion newsletter: ⁠https://noahpinion.substack.com/⁠
• Erik Torenberg's Substack: ⁠https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/

Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to [email protected]

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@eriktorenberg

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In this episode from the a16z Podcast, Dwarkesh Patel, Noah Smith, and Erik Torenberg discuss AGI, exploring how AI might transform labor markets, economic growth, space exploration, and geopolitical dynamics in the coming decades.

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• Defining AGI: Noah and Dwarkesh begin by establishing working definitions of Artificial General Intelligence - from systems that "can do almost any job at least as well as humans" to more near-term AI that "can automate 95% of white-collar work"
• Current AI Limitations: Present systems lack crucial continual learning capabilities that would allow them to build context over time and improve with experience like humans do
• Historical Parallels: The conquistadors' conquest of the Aztec and Inca empires provides a cautionary tale about information asymmetry and how technological advantages can lead to domination
• AI Cooperation: The hosts discuss the need for US-China cooperation on AI safety, similar to the "red telephone" during the Cold War, to prevent AI-related sabotage
• AI Market Competition: Analysis of the surprising trend of increasing rather than decreasing competitors at the AI frontier, despite rising costs of training frontier models
• Network Effects vs. Technical Capability: Discussion of whether brand recognition (like "ChatGPT") or technological advantages will determine market leaders

Quotes:

"If you make the best AI, it gets even better. So why enter that? That's the big question." - Noah Smith

LINKS:

• The a16z podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX
• Noahpinion newsletter: https://noahpinion.substack.com/
• Dwarkesh podcast: https://www.dwarkesh.com/
• Erik Torenberg's Substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/

Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to [email protected]

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FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

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In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore Argentina's economic reforms under President Milei, development models in emerging economies like Vietnam and Malaysia, effective crime reduction strategies, and how AI might reshape our workforce and population dynamics in the coming decades.

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SPONSORS:

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More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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• Argentina's Economic Reforms: President Milei's fiscal austerity measures to address chronic deficits without dollarization, focusing on necessary belt-tightening for a middle-income country supporting an upper-income welfare state
• Development Models in Emerging Economies: Case studies like Vietnam and Bangladesh demonstrating different paths to economic development
• The Crime Rate Decline: Focused deterrence approaches and community policing helping reduce violent crime, especially among high-risk populations
• Education and Fertility Rates: The inverse relationship between women's education and fertility rates, and the impossibility of reversing it without dystopian measures
• AI and Population Dynamics: How artificial intelligence might mitigate economic damage from population decline by replacing human labor

Quotes:

"If AI really can replace humans, then that will mitigate the economic damage from the losses of population." - Noah Smith

"Murders between people who know each other, between people who are like intimate partner violence has gone way down." - Noah Smith

"We need to basically create technologies that make it easy to take care of kids so that parenthood doesn't mean it's giant change in your life." - Noah Smith

LINKS:

• Noahpinion newsletter: https://noahpinion.substack.com/
• Erik Torenberg's Substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/

Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to [email protected]

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FOLLOW ON X:

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@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

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This week, we’re airing a live conversation between Noah Smith and Sam D’Amico, founder and CEO of Impulse Labs, about how China’s Electric Tech Stack and tightly integrated supply chains are fueling its lead in industries from EVs to robotics, while exploring solutions for revitalizing U.S. manufacturing. The conversation also covers regulatory challenges, the value of co-locating engineers and factories, and the role of advanced technologies in shaping global production.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.

NetSuite

More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]

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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠

https://www.impulselabs.com/

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• The "Electric Tech Stack" Revolution: Electric Tech Stack" - batteries, motors, power electronics, and chips. This stack is replacing traditional manufacturing across industries, turning everything from cars to military equipment into "fancy drones.
• Why America Struggles with Manufacturing: Engineers live in expensive NIMBY cities while factory workers live elsewhere, breaking the crucial feedback loop needed for hardware iteration.
• China's Advantages: Chinese companies expect to build 200-300 prototype units before shipping, with engineers working directly with factory workers.
• Policy Solutions: Every major US city needs its own "Shenzhen" - a nearby manufacturing hub where engineers can drive to factories in 2 hours.
• The Appliance Strategy: Sam's company Impulse is using battery-powered stoves as a trojan horse to rebuild America's electric tech stack manufacturing base. By creating domestic demand for these technologies outside EVs, they're building the supply chain that other companies can leverage.
• The Stakes: The conversation emphasizes that this isn't just about economics - it's about national security. When Ukraine's toy drones can destroy Russian bombers 4,000 kilometers away, mastering the electric tech stack becomes a matter of military survival.

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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze recent global events—from a political shift in New York to the Israel-Iran conflict—while exploring U.S.-China economic dynamics, evolving industrial policies, and the risk of a recession. The conversation also touches on historical economic shifts, tariffs, and manufacturing trends.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Shopify

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠⁠⁠⁠.

AdQuick

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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]

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FOLLOW ON X:

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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

China's industrial policy has an unprofitability problem: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/chinas-industrial-policy-has-an-unprofitability

Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• New York City Politics: Discussion of a "Muslim socialist" winning what appears to be a NYC mayoral race.
• Middle East Geopolitics: Analysis of recent Iran bombing and its economic implications.
• China's Current Industrial Policy Problems: Xi Jinping's aggressive subsidization of strategic industries (EVs, semiconductors, batteries, solar panels).
• Key Economic Insights: China's export percentage of GDP is now lower than many developed countries, but the absolute volume still creates massive global impact due to China's size.
• US Manufacturing Revival: The importance of reducing regulatory barriers to enable more "sub-Elons" (entrepreneurs like Elon Musk).

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In this episode of Econ 102, we're republishing a conversation between Noah Smith and Derek Thompson recorded live on Substack in June. They explore Derek’s shift from The Atlantic to Substack and unpack the “abundance agenda” — a vision for revitalizing American politics through better housing, energy, and innovation policy. Their wide-ranging conversation touches on economic reform, trendspotting, and the evolving media landscape.

–

SPONSORS:

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Shopify

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠⁠⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠⁠⁠.

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–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]

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FOLLOW ON X:

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@DKThomp

@eriktorenberg

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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Derek Thompson Substack: https://www.derekthompson.org/

Abundance: https://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Progress-Takes-Ezra-Klein/dp/1668023482

Paul Krugman: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/

Matt Yglesias: https://www.slowboring.com/

Kyla Scanlan: https://kyla.substack.com/

Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• Derek's Move to Substack: Derek left The Atlantic after 17 years to join Substack, driven by "party wanderlust" - seeing the vibrant community of writers like Noah, Matt Yglesias, and others.
• Art of Trend Spotting: Noah praises Derek's unique ability to identify major trends before others, noting he's "earlier to spot new and important trends than any other blogger or writer." Derek reveals his method involves paying attention to that inner voice asking "what the fuck is that?" about everyday observations - essentially being like "observational humor but not necessarily humorous."
• Abundance Agenda's Impact: The conversation reveals how the abundance movement has gained significant traction, with Derek noting that partnering with Ezra Klein was strategic since Klein has unique influence within Democratic circles. They discuss "Ezra Klein Derangement Syndrome" - how Klein's prominence makes him both influential and a target.
• Need to attack MAGA degrowth ideology: Abundance advocates should more aggressively counter Trump's "scarcity mindset" that responds to every shortage with deprivation rather than increased production.
• Federal housing incentives: Race-to-the-top style funding to reward localities for pro-housing policies.

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This week, we're republishing a conversation from last month between Noah Smith and Substack CEO Chris Best, originally streamed on Substack Live. They discuss the future of media in an AI-driven world, including Noah's vision for AI-powered newsletters, the rise of independent voices, and the evolving roles of platforms like TikTok and Twitter. The conversation also explores Substack's potential as a breaking news hub, the broader impact of AI on content creation, shifting U.S.-China relations, and the role of industrial policy in shaping global dynamics.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Shopify

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠⁠.

AdQuick

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://adquick.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@cjgbest

@eriktorenberg

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–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

The Age of Twitter is finally ending. Can Substack take its place?: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-age-of-twitter-is-finally-ending

Eugene Wei's Status as a Service:
https://www.eugenewei.com/blog/2019/2/19/status-as-a-service

Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• Death of Twitter as Breaking News Platform: Death of Twitter as Breaking News Platform.
• Substack's Opportunity in Breaking News: Noah proposes that Substack could capture 80% of Twitter's former breaking news function.
• AI's Role in Media's Future: AI as search engine, curator, and summarizer to help process information overload.
• Attention Economy Problem: Chris highlights a crucial insight: "the media you can consume is not just a matter of getting what you want. It also shapes your desires and shapes what you want over time" - emphasizing that content choices shape identity over time.
• Geopolitical Concerns: Noah expresses pessimism about America's competitive position.

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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss China’s economic strategies, technological advancements, and geopolitical challenges, contrasting them with U.S. policy. They discuss topics from the Hong Kong protests to battery manufacturing and emphasize the need for American industrial policy, education reform, and strategic investment to stay competitive.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Is the U.S. in a "high-level equilibrium trap"?: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/is-the-us-in-a-high-level-equilibrium

Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

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TAKEAWAYS:

• China's Strategic Position & Capabilities: China can easily police sea lanes to protect their own trade while potentially disrupting others, giving them a significant strategic advantage over America's traditional role as a global public goods provider.
• Financial System Stress: China faces a persistent drag from their real estate crash and mounting bad debt in local government financing vehicles. Banks are struggling to transition from real estate lending to manufacturing loans, many of which will likely go bad.
• Electric Tech Stack Revolution: The convergence of lithium-ion batteries, permanent magnet electric motors, and power electronics is creating a new technological paradigm that's replacing combustion engineering across multiple industries.
• America's Manufacturing Challenge: America has "too many bottlenecks" - only Elon Musk seems capable of overwhelming all 20+ bottlenecks simultaneously, while other talented entrepreneurs can only handle 15 or fewer.
• Republican Industrial Policy: America needs "Biden-style industrial policy without the everything bagel" - massive subsidies and support for electric tech manufacturing without progressive contractor requirements and community engagement processes.
• China's Innovation Plateau: By the 2040s, China may face Japan's experience where aging leadership in corporations reduces innovation and creates fewer opportunities for young talent.

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