Noah Smith joins Erik Torenberg at the 2026 American Dynamism Summit in Washington, D.C. to discuss Anthropic's relationship with Washington, bioterrorism risks stemming from AI, why Noah isn't worried about AI causing job loss, and more.

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

00:28 - Anthropic, DOD, & Government Control of AI

04:28 - Sponsor: NetSuite

09:44 - Advice for Dario & Anthropic

12:13 - Partisan Politics vs. Existential Risk

16:06 - Mass Surveillance & AI

17:30 - The Biosecurity Threat

24:21 - Will AI Take Our Jobs?

28:41 - Outro

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Sponsor: NetSuite

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah and Erik are joined by Flock Safety CEO to cover America's crime crisis and how to solve it with technology. They explore international comparisons, why America's crime problem is unique, how cameras can deter crime, tradeoffs in crime reduction, and more.

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- Discussion opened with comparisons between AI's impact on various professions, particularly radiology

- America's murder rate is approximately 5x higher than Europe and 10x higher than Asia, making it a significantly more violent country

- Crime has become increasingly sophisticated over the past decade, shifting from impulsive juvenile offenses to organized, profit-driven enterprises

- Foreign criminal organizations operate with different specialties: South American gangs focus on narcotics, firearms, and use drones for reconnaissance

- Geographic spread: American cities are too suburban for effective foot patrols, forcing police to drive instead - foot patrols are proven to be more effective deterrents

- Gun availability: While firearms make approximately a 2x difference in murder rates, eliminating all guns (which would be extremely difficult) would only get America halfway to European safety levels

- Americans have restructured their entire lives around crime avoidance, creating costs not captured in crime statistics

- Deterrence through likelihood of capture: Research shows criminals are deterred by the likelihood of getting caught, not by severity of punishment

- Garrett compared criminal behavior to children - they commit crimes because they think they'll get away with it, not because punishment is insufficient

- Cameras create permanent records that make crime detection highly likely, fundamentally changing the risk calculus

- Even with permissive DAs or judges, the existence of video evidence creates accountability

- Japan achieved approximately a 5x reduction in crime through widespread camera deployment

- Cameras effectively ended many categories of street crime, with criminals openly acknowledging they "can't commit crimes, there's cameras everywhere"

- Reduced crime would save cities enormous costs - San Francisco could save approximately $1 billion by reducing crime to Asian standards

- Noah emphasized that "law and order" rhetoric won't work in liberal cities - need a different framing

- The progressive case for surveillance: Enables walkable neighborhoods and vibrant urbanism

- Some American cities don't believe crime is a serious problem, viewing current levels as acceptable

- These cities will likely experience declining populations and tax bases, creating a downward spiral until they recognize the need for action

- Cities that resist camera technology often have underlying trust issues with their local government

- In communities where residents trust their elected officials want them to succeed, camera adoption is widely embraced

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Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction

3:00 - The State of Crime in America

6:04 - Crime Statistics Debate

10:59 - The Solution: Cameras Everywhere

12:15 - Sponsors: Notion | NetSuite

17:00 - How Deterrence Really Works

19:35 - Japan's Success with Cameras

22:46 - Privacy and Cultural Trade-offs

25:50 - Sponsor: Found

38:35 - Economic Benefits and Policy

44:19 - Closing Thoughts

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover Europe's economic future, how internet discourse has changed politics, the rise of identitarian populism on both the right and left in America, and more.

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• Europe continues to focus more on regulation than innovation, creating challenges for economic growth
• Traditional European industries like auto manufacturing are struggling with the transition to electric vehicles
• Chinese companies are producing better and cheaper electric cars that align with Europe's climate goals
• The Gaza deal is viewed positively because it considers Gaza's economic future beyond just stopping violence
• An economically self-sustaining Gaza might be less likely to support groups like Hamas
• Gulf Arab countries could potentially assist with Gaza's economic development given their expertise
• Israel has been militarily successful against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran but faces global criticism
• Israel's approach to international criticism has often relied on projecting strength rather than building alliances
• Israel remains dependent on other countries for military supplies despite its own manufacturing capabilities
• Regular people are disengaging from politics, leaving only the most extreme voices engaged ("evaporative cooling effect")
• Political discussions on platforms like X (Twitter) have become increasingly extreme
• Young political staffers who work for both parties are heavily consuming this extremist content
• The speakers observe parallels to the political unrest of the 1960s-70s, which eventually dissipated
• Unlike previous eras, today's extremism remains highly visible online even as the general public tunes out
• Discussion of Zohran Mamdani's election in New York as representing a new direction in leftist politics
• Concern about the mainstreaming of far-right figures like Nick Fuentes who previously were more fringe
• The conversation reflects concern about the polarization between extremes while the majority of people disengage
• There's agreement that substantive engagement with ideas is needed rather than simply dismissing opponents

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Timestamps:

00:00 — Introduction

00:24 — Europe and Russia

03:02 — China and Electric Cars

04:38 — Israel-Gaza Conflict

06:43 — American Sentiment Toward Israel

09:57 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite

12:00 — Online Extremism and Political Disengagement

22:50 — Staffers and Extremism

24:25 – Sponsor: Found

25:29 — New York Politics and Mamdani

31:47 — The Future of Leftist Politics

34:11 — Race and Identity

38:06 — Islam and Immigration

38:44 — Identitarian Populism

41:44 — Closing Thoughts

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102 originally aired on the Sphere Podcast, Noah Smith and Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry sit down for a debate on immigration. They cover the philosophical underpinnings of their arguments, where they find common ground, border enforcement, deportation, public opinion, and more.

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• Noah Smith and Pascal Emmanuel Gobry (PEG) engaged in a debate about immigration policy, focusing primarily on illegal immigration and enforcement approaches.
• The conversation centered on philosophical positions about borders, practical enforcement strategies, and the societal impacts of immigration policies.
• Both agreed that nations should have borders and control who enters, though they differed on enforcement methods.
• Noah advocated for employer-focused enforcement through company audits and fines rather than deportations.
• PEG supported stronger deportation measures and argued for the value of deterrence.
• They debated whether deportations would reduce crime affecting legal residents.
• Both agreed on the fiscal costs of illegal immigration as a significant issue.
• They discussed the political challenges of passing immigration reform.

-

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
05:00 – Philosophical Foundations: Borders, Nations, and Policy
09:00 – “No Human is Illegal” & Historical Context
13:25 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite
15:30 – Enforcement, Detention, and Public Perception
24:00 – Asylum Law, Legislative Gridlock, and Political Realities
28:10 – Sponsor: Found
41:00 – Mass Deportation: Crime, Economics, and Evidence
56:00 – Trust, Public Sentiment, and Policy Limits
1:10:00 – Final Thoughts & Outro
-

Listen to the Sphere Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/48eWEcxSYDyrgjC3lO0EJZ

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCB2gs2TBXeP7vyn9QUaaxjQ
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Noah - https://x.com/Noahpinion

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore AI's effects on productivity, how AI business models will shake out, the US and China's rare earth minerals industries, and China's economic challenges, including demographics, real estate, and involution.

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Sponsors:

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• AI can affect productivity in multiple ways: replacing humans, enhancing human productivity, creating new tasks, and increasing capital productivity
• AI may follow other essential industries with low profit margins despite creating enormous value:
  • Like farming, solar power, and airlines
• Code-related AI applications are seeing particularly strong adoption
• Vertical AI applications in specific industries (healthcare, legal, real estate) are gaining traction
• China controls the majority of rare earth mining and refining
• The US has sufficient rare earth deposits but faces two challenges:
  • Regulatory barriers to mining
  • Lack of solvent extraction technology and know-how
• China's fertility rate is lower than Japan and Europe
• However, a "baby bulge" (ages 7-22) will support the workforce short-term

-

Timestamps:
00:00 — Intro
00:52 — AI’s impact on productivity
02:27 — Debating whether AI will increase productivity
03:11 — Historical analogy: Electricity’s impact on productivity, lessons for AI
07:55 — Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite
09:57 — Application layer companies, AI in coding, vertical AI applications
12:49 — AI bubble vs. CapEx boom/bust, historical parallels (railroads, telecoms)
16:54 — Brand loyalty, price wars, and profitability in AI models
22:26 — US-China trade, rare earths, and supply chain challenges
32:20 — Sponsor: Found
33:33 — China’s demographic and economic challenges, over-competition, and deflation
54:06 — Recommendations for China’s economic policy, rationalizing the economy
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https://x.com/Noahpinion

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover the transformation of global manufacturing, the rise of the electric tech stack, the landscape of jobs and economic policy, and the state of today's online discourse.

–

SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and explore how AI is reshaping the economy, jobs, business profitability, industry competition, and financing, while drawing historical parallels and offering insights into its broader societal impact.

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• AI Bubble Prediction: The speaker forecasts an AI crash similar to the 2001 dot-com bust, but believes AI will ultimately succeed long-term
• Employment Evolution, Not Elimination: Research shows unemployment rising in jobs that use AI less, contradicting fears that AI directly replaces workers
• Data Center Financing Risks: How financing methods for AI infrastructure could create systemic risks similar to the 2008 financial crisis if private credit becomes the main vehicle
• Bond Market Shift: Companies like Meta are increasingly issuing their own bonds rather than using opaque private credit markets, a healthier approach to AI infrastructure financing
• Multiple Winners in AI: How the massive size of AI markets is enabling multiple successful companies in each category despite traditional concerns about moats
• Venture Capital's AI Approach: a16z has been investing heavily in AI companies but feels they've been "too conservative" given the multiple winners emerging across categories

Quotes:

"We tend to think that the markets are just so much bigger, and so even if there's no traditional moats protecting it from other entrants, that there can be multiple winners in a category.” - Erik Torenberg

LINKS:

• The a16z podcast: ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX⁠
• Noahpinion newsletter: ⁠https://noahpinion.substack.com/⁠
• Erik Torenberg's Substack: ⁠https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/

Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to [email protected]

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In this episode from the a16z Podcast, Dwarkesh Patel, Noah Smith, and Erik Torenberg discuss AGI, exploring how AI might transform labor markets, economic growth, space exploration, and geopolitical dynamics in the coming decades.

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SPONSORS:

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• Defining AGI: Noah and Dwarkesh begin by establishing working definitions of Artificial General Intelligence - from systems that "can do almost any job at least as well as humans" to more near-term AI that "can automate 95% of white-collar work"
• Current AI Limitations: Present systems lack crucial continual learning capabilities that would allow them to build context over time and improve with experience like humans do
• Historical Parallels: The conquistadors' conquest of the Aztec and Inca empires provides a cautionary tale about information asymmetry and how technological advantages can lead to domination
• AI Cooperation: The hosts discuss the need for US-China cooperation on AI safety, similar to the "red telephone" during the Cold War, to prevent AI-related sabotage
• AI Market Competition: Analysis of the surprising trend of increasing rather than decreasing competitors at the AI frontier, despite rising costs of training frontier models
• Network Effects vs. Technical Capability: Discussion of whether brand recognition (like "ChatGPT") or technological advantages will determine market leaders

Quotes:

"If you make the best AI, it gets even better. So why enter that? That's the big question." - Noah Smith

LINKS:

• The a16z podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX
• Noahpinion newsletter: https://noahpinion.substack.com/
• Dwarkesh podcast: https://www.dwarkesh.com/
• Erik Torenberg's Substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/

Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to [email protected]

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FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

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In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore Argentina's economic reforms under President Milei, development models in emerging economies like Vietnam and Malaysia, effective crime reduction strategies, and how AI might reshape our workforce and population dynamics in the coming decades.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

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NetSuite

More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Shopify

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Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102

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Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102

• Argentina's Economic Reforms: President Milei's fiscal austerity measures to address chronic deficits without dollarization, focusing on necessary belt-tightening for a middle-income country supporting an upper-income welfare state
• Development Models in Emerging Economies: Case studies like Vietnam and Bangladesh demonstrating different paths to economic development
• The Crime Rate Decline: Focused deterrence approaches and community policing helping reduce violent crime, especially among high-risk populations
• Education and Fertility Rates: The inverse relationship between women's education and fertility rates, and the impossibility of reversing it without dystopian measures
• AI and Population Dynamics: How artificial intelligence might mitigate economic damage from population decline by replacing human labor

Quotes:

"If AI really can replace humans, then that will mitigate the economic damage from the losses of population." - Noah Smith

"Murders between people who know each other, between people who are like intimate partner violence has gone way down." - Noah Smith

"We need to basically create technologies that make it easy to take care of kids so that parenthood doesn't mean it's giant change in your life." - Noah Smith

LINKS:

• Noahpinion newsletter: https://noahpinion.substack.com/
• Erik Torenberg's Substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/

Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to [email protected]

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FOLLOW ON X:

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This week, we’re airing a live conversation between Noah Smith and Sam D’Amico, founder and CEO of Impulse Labs, about how China’s Electric Tech Stack and tightly integrated supply chains are fueling its lead in industries from EVs to robotics, while exploring solutions for revitalizing U.S. manufacturing. The conversation also covers regulatory challenges, the value of co-locating engineers and factories, and the role of advanced technologies in shaping global production.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.

NetSuite

More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Shopify

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠

https://www.impulselabs.com/

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• The "Electric Tech Stack" Revolution: Electric Tech Stack" - batteries, motors, power electronics, and chips. This stack is replacing traditional manufacturing across industries, turning everything from cars to military equipment into "fancy drones.
• Why America Struggles with Manufacturing: Engineers live in expensive NIMBY cities while factory workers live elsewhere, breaking the crucial feedback loop needed for hardware iteration.
• China's Advantages: Chinese companies expect to build 200-300 prototype units before shipping, with engineers working directly with factory workers.
• Policy Solutions: Every major US city needs its own "Shenzhen" - a nearby manufacturing hub where engineers can drive to factories in 2 hours.
• The Appliance Strategy: Sam's company Impulse is using battery-powered stoves as a trojan horse to rebuild America's electric tech stack manufacturing base. By creating domestic demand for these technologies outside EVs, they're building the supply chain that other companies can leverage.
• The Stakes: The conversation emphasizes that this isn't just about economics - it's about national security. When Ukraine's toy drones can destroy Russian bombers 4,000 kilometers away, mastering the electric tech stack becomes a matter of military survival.

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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze recent global events—from a political shift in New York to the Israel-Iran conflict—while exploring U.S.-China economic dynamics, evolving industrial policies, and the risk of a recession. The conversation also touches on historical economic shifts, tariffs, and manufacturing trends.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

China's industrial policy has an unprofitability problem: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/chinas-industrial-policy-has-an-unprofitability

Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠

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TAKEAWAYS:

• New York City Politics: Discussion of a "Muslim socialist" winning what appears to be a NYC mayoral race.
• Middle East Geopolitics: Analysis of recent Iran bombing and its economic implications.
• China's Current Industrial Policy Problems: Xi Jinping's aggressive subsidization of strategic industries (EVs, semiconductors, batteries, solar panels).
• Key Economic Insights: China's export percentage of GDP is now lower than many developed countries, but the absolute volume still creates massive global impact due to China's size.
• US Manufacturing Revival: The importance of reducing regulatory barriers to enable more "sub-Elons" (entrepreneurs like Elon Musk).

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